NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

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Ukraine Update – May 13th

Military and hard security developments

Russian offensive operations continue to be focused on working towards the encirclement of Severodonetsk salient. Russian forces appear to have taken the entirety of Rubizhne and are pushing south through the village of Vojevodivka to the outskirts of Severodonetsk city. With other attacks continuing in the direction of Lyman to the west, and north of Popasna in the direction of Lysychansk, on the opposite bank of the river to Severodonetsk, the Russians are making some progress towards a tactical encirclement of the area, though there still remains significant ground to make up. Offensive operations out of Izyum have largely ground to a halt, and we may see Russian forces reorientate away from this salient towards reinforcing and capitalising on successes further east, particularly as a new attack on Severodonetsk city is likely to be launched in the coming days.
Long-range strikes have continued overnight, with Russian missiles striking targets in Mykolaiv, Zaporizhzhia, Lozova, and Kremenchuk in Poltava oblast. The Russian Ministry of Defence has claimed that the latter strike destroyed an oil refinery alongside numerous tanks of petrol and diesel fuel. This underscores the continued targeting of critical infrastructure and related military targets, which will only compound fuel shortages being experienced by Ukrainian forces in the weeks ahead. In addition, the Russian Ministry of Defence continues to claim the destruction of weapons depots through regular long-range strikes, including US-supplied air defence systems in Kharkiv oblast overnight.
Long-range strikes inside Ukraine continued overnight, with cruise missiles seemingly launched at targets in Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Lozava and Poltava. Strikes and aerial bombardments were also conducted along the northern border in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts overnight, underlining the continued threat to areas in the north despite the Russian withdrawal from Northern Ukraine last month. Given the ongoing Belarusian rapid response drills being conducted along their southern border with Ukraine, the modest uptick in Russian strikes against Chernihiv oblast are likely to reiterate the threat to northern Ukraine. This will encourage Ukrainian forces to continue screening the border and prevent their redeployment to support Ukrainian defensive operations in the south and east.
Elsewhere, in Moldova, on 13 May, authorities in the breakaway region of Transnistria said that an oil depot and a military office were targeted in an attempted attack in the regional capital, Tiraspol. Although the latest reports indicate that no damage was caused during the alleged attempted attacks, the events follow a string of similar incidents over the last few weeks, for which Tiraspol blamed Ukraine. Although the developments underline the increased likelihood of conflict spill over since the February invasion of Ukraine, it nevertheless remains our assessment that Russia’s military capabilities in Transnistria are presently weak and therefore do not yet pose an imminent threat either to Moldova, or to southern Ukraine. The incident does, however, likely underline Russia’s attempts to keep the pressure on Kyiv to commit resources to screening the border region, subsequently preventing them from being deployed elsewhere in Ukraine.
Russian forces have continued to make progress against the Severodonetsk salient, where Russia continues to concentrate most of its offensive energy. While unconfirmed at time of writing, it appears that the entirety of Rubizhne is now under Russian control, with Russian sources claiming their forces are pushing west of the town towards the east bank of the Siverskyi Donets river. As such, further attempts at pontoon crossings remain possible in the coming days as efforts to encircle Severodonetsk continue. However, the destruction earlier this week of a significant portion of a Russian armoured column that had attempted to cross the river further west underscores the difficulties of such operations, and the high casualty rates being sustained by Russian forces.
Local Ukrainian authorities have furthermore confirmed that Russian forces have indeed taken control of the village of Vojevodivka south of Rubizhne as reported yesterday, though the Ukrainian General Staff have not yet confirmed this. Nevertheless, the progress made in consolidating Rubizhne and pushing towards Vojevodivka places the frontline at the outskirts of Severodonetsk city itself, with the Russians destroying the Borova river bridge that connected Rubizhne to Severodonetsk overnight. Likely a move to limit Ukrainian reinforcements into Vojevodivka, the destruction of the bridge could prefigure similar strikes against other key bridges connecting Severodonetsk to the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets river, from where all supplies and reinforcements into the city ultimately come.
Following the progress around Rubizhne this week, a fresh Russian offensive is likely to be launched against Severodonetsk in the coming days. However, the city, together with its sister settlement Lysychansk which sits across the river, represents a significant build-up urban area. This will pose a more profound challenge to Russian forces than the towns and villages so far taken in the region, which will in turn threaten to stall the offensive’s momentum.
Further west, Russian forces have continued launching limited assaults in the direction of Lyman, though Ukrainian forces have seemingly repelled these attacks over the past 24 hours. However, as offensive Russian operations out of the Izyum salient appear to be winding down for now, increased pressure against Lyman is likely in the coming days in a bid to at once apply pressure on Slovyansk from the northeast, but also support the tactical encirclement steadily materialising around the Severodonetsk salient.
Russian attacks overnight against the villages of Komyshuvakha and Orikhove, north of Popasna, further underline that a tactical encirclement around Severodonetsk remains the principal operational objective. Russian forces are now pushing north from Popasna, which likely aims at applying pressure on Lysychansk from the south while Russian forces close in against Severodonetsk from the north. If the Russians can maintain their foothold on the southern bank of the Siverskyi Donets river south of Yampil achieved earlier this week, progress north of Popasna would present a serious threat to Ukrainian lines of communication into the salient. Nevertheless, further offensives west of Popasna along the H-32 highway in the direction of Bakhmut also remain possible in the coming days. However, such an operation would likely serve a more ambitious encirclement aimed at applying pressure on Kramatorsk, which would likely need to also see progress made south and east of Izyum.
There are, however, indications that Russian forces may in fact be winding down operations out of the Izyum salient, where progress has ground to a halt over the past few weeks, in favour of supporting the more successful operations further east. If this turns out to be the case, the more ambitious aim of encircling Ukrainian forces around Slovyansk and Kramatorsk may be delayed or abandoned completely in favour of reinforcing efforts to encircle Severodonetsk. The Ukrainian General Staff have nevertheless reported that the Russians have transferred additional equipment and at least one BTG to the Izyum area in recent days, meaning it remains unclear at this stage if and when a reorientation of Russian forces will take place.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

On 13 May, British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss stated that it is critical that “we keep up the pressure on Vladimir Putin by supplying more weapons to Ukraine”. The comments will reinforce Moscow’s perception that the war in Ukraine is a “proxy war” with the West and the NATO forces, and will likely only force Putin to further commit to the offensive in Ukraine, as well as sustain the threat of long-range strikes against critical infrastructure to prevent western arms deliveries.
Meanwhile, in Russia, media reports note that another military recruitment office was attacked with Molotov cocktails overnight in the Siberian city of Omsk. The development is reportedly at least the eighth such incident since the start of the invasion on 24 February. However, in line with our previous analysis, such incidents, whilst indicative of an underlying degree of domestic opposition to the war and lack of willingness to go to the frontlines, have so far been isolated and limited in impact. The likelihood of such attacks becoming more frequent may well increase, however, should the war continue to drag on for months amid a growing death toll and deteriorating socio-economic conditions in Russia.

Economic/business environment developments

On 12 May Moscow banned Gazprom from shipping natural gas through the Polish section of the Yamal-Europe pipeline in retaliation of western sanctions. The move follows partial disruptions to the flow of gas through Ukrainian transit network earlier this week, when the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU) halted part of Russian natural gas flows to Europe via the Sokhranivka gas metering station, due to unspecified technical issues. The disruption marked the first time gas flows had been disrupted through Ukraine since the invasion began and underlines the potential for further disruptions in the coming weeks. Notably, the Yamal-Europe pipeline had been posited as a potential alternative route for Russian gas should supplies through Ukraine cease. However, Moscow’s decision to ban transit via Poland has subsequently thrown this into doubt and as such will place yet further pressure on European gas supplies, in particular those destined for Germany. The Nord Stream pipeline remains operational, but gas flows via Poland to Germany have already reduced following the halt of supplies to Gazprom Germania. While the warming temperatures will reduce overall demand for gas in the summer, the issue threatens to exacerbate the enduring energy crisis, where energy rationing is already been considered in Berlin as a potential mitigating measure in the case of further disruptions.
On 13 May, the UK imposed new sanctions against 12 individuals deemed to be members of Putin’s “inner circle”, including his ex-wife as well as his rumoured girlfriend and former Olympic gymnast, Alina Kabaeva. Following the announcements, Russia’s Foreign Ministry issued a statement advising Russian citizens against “travelling to the UK and trying to obtain British visas” due to “the extremely unfriendly course of the UK towards our country [Russia]”. The developments are on trend with the heightened diplomatic tensions between Moscow and London, with the latter increasing its support to Ukraine, including calling for sanctions on Russia to remain in place until all Russian troops have been pulled back from Ukraine.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Several Central and Eastern European (CEE) nations are beginning to observe street protests and rising anti-refugee sentiments against the influx of Ukrainian refugees into the European Union (just over 6 m total as of 13 May). Notably, Slovakia has seen the emergence of protests in several cities over the past 72hrs decrying government aid given to Ukrainian refugees. Whilst anti-refugee narratives are widely prevalent in several CEE nations – notably among the Visegrad Four (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Slovakia) – the Ukrainian refugee crisis has been to date met with substantial levels of public goodwill across the wider region. Nevertheless, we assess that emergent disinformation narratives will foment negative sentiment specifically toward Ukrainian refugees in coming weeks and months, heightening the risk of more sustained street protests.
Unexploded ordnance (UXO) remains a severe issue impeding the return of residents and businesses to Kyiv and the surrounding oblast. The delivery of Canadian bomb disposal units by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on 8 May will boost Ukrainian de-mining capacity in Kyiv oblast, but nevertheless UXO will remain a key threat to civilian life and resumption of business in the months ahead.
Significant risk of targeted and indiscriminate air and missile strikes across central and western Ukraine remains. Russian forces retain the ability to strike across the entirety of Ukraine, and will likely continue to target major transport infrastructure (particularly railways and airfields) believed to be transit points for Western military aid. This will seriously impact efforts to move humanitarian aid, particularly moving existing aid into eastern Ukraine, where food, water and power shortages continue to escalate in severity.
The H01/P01 and the E40 roads are the most viable routes for road access to and from Kyiv. The E40 and the E373 highways were declared ‘open’ for traffic by Ukrainian authorities and are now relatively safe, however, they remain heavily damaged. The threat of air attacks remains high and therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes. The threat posed by mines and unexploded ordnance also remains high across Kyiv oblast. We note that this advisory is supported by a warning from the Kyiv Region Military Administration on 12 April stating that unoccupied towns and settlements adjacent to Kyiv should not be re-settled by civilian populations due to high quantities of mines and unexploded ordnance.
The westbound E50 road to Oleksandriya, and from there the H01 highway, seems to be a relatively safer route from Dnipro to Kyiv. Between Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, there are two main road routes: the H08 and E105. Due to Russian military targeting civilian and military aviation infrastructure with missile strikes, we believe there is substantial risk associated with all road routes into Zaporizhzhia, as the H08 is close to Shyroke Airfield just north-west of Zaporizhzhia, and the E105 passes through Zaporizhzhia International Airport and then Vilniansk Airfield. As such, we assess that all approaches into Zaporizhzhia face elevated risk from air/missile strikes at present.

FORECAST

On 12 May, Dmitry Polyansky, Russia’s first deputy representative at the United Nations, stated that Ukraine membership of the European Union (EU) is equivalent to Ukraine seeking to join NATO, which in part justified the 24 February invasion. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov subsequently reiterated this stance on 13 May, claiming that the EU has transformed from a “constructive, economic platform” into an “aggressive, militant player, declaring its ambitions far beyond the European continent”. Polyansky and Lavrov’s statements represent a marked shift from Moscow’s previous stance which indicated reluctant willingness for Ukraine to pursue EU membership during the initial peace talks between the two sides. Polyansky stated that Moscow’s position on the issue changed after the visit to Ukraine by the Vice-President of the European Commission Joseph Borell in April, during which Borell allegedly stated that the “war should be won on the battlefield” and considering the fact that in their eyes the EU is the leader of arms deliveries to Ukraine.

Ukraine’s potential membership in the EU is highly unlikely for several years, particularly following French President Emmanuel Macron’s comments earlier this week that posited an alternative European community as a potential substitute for EU membership. Nevertheless, the European Commission is expected to announce in June whether it favours granting Ukraine candidate member status, and as such will remain a key date to watch. Given the simultaneous and expected applications for Finland and Sweden to join NATO, which could be announced in the coming days, it is clear that the Kremlin increasingly views EU membership as a backdoor to NATO or de facto alignment with the alliance. As such, Moscow will likely continue applying rhetorical pressure on Brussels and Kyiv ahead of the European Commission’s announcement in a bid to frame the granting of candidate status as an escalatory move – though in reality even if candidate status is favoured, formal membership remains years off. The development’s more immediate implications will likely be felt during any negotiations on Ukrainian sovereignty or neutral status in the coming months. President Volodymyr Zelensky is now calling for a one-on-one meeting with President Putin, though given peace talks essentially ceased following the Bucha atrocities revelations, a meeting remains unlikely as the Russian offensive in the Donbas continues.

Along the North Kharkiv axis, there has been no further confirmed change to the frontline. Russian forces appear to have repulsed a small number of limited Ukrainian attacks as they continue to consolidate defensive positions by increasingly using artillery against Ukrainian positions. Elsewhere, in Mariupol Russian force continue to conduct aerial and artillery bombardments of the Azovstal works. Ground offensives against the site were reportedly halted as of 12 May as Russian forces concentrate instead on cutting off tunnels out of the works to prevent any defenders escaping.

European Union: New proposal to divest from fossil fuels to improve energy security in the long term. Next week, the European Commission will likely publish a 195 bn EUR proposal, called REPowerEU, aiming to eliminate reliance on Russian fossil fuels entirely by 2027 by investing in renewable energy, energy saving measures and alternative supplies. The proposal reportedly includes a planned 13 percent cut to energy consumption and the increase of the share of renewable energy sources to 45 percent by 2030. The plan also entails a faster approval process for renewable energy projects and the increase of liquified natural gas (LNG) imports. According to the Commission’s assessment, reaching the outlined targets will require a 195 bn EUR investment, and the plan will include laws, recommendations to national governments as well as non-binding schemes that will improve the bloc’s energy security in the long term.

Russian forces continue to attack on multiple axes across the frontline, but the principal effort continues to be efforts to encircle the Severodonetsk salient, where the Russians have seen notable success over the last 24 hours. The Ukrainian General Staff have confirmed that Russian forces have taken ground south of Kudryashivka at the outskirts of Severodonetsk, while pro-Russian sources have also claimed that the village of Vojevodivka to the southeast of Rubizhne has also been taken, which stands just a kilometre northwest of Severodonetsk.
Such advances underline the mounting pressure on the salient, with other Russian attacks in the direction of Lyman to the west and out of Popasna to the south likely aimed to generate wider momentum in the coming days that will apply further pressure on Ukrainian supply lines. In particular, Russian forces are continuing efforts to penetrate the Siverskyi Donets River. The Ukrainian General Staff have confirmed that Russian troops have once again managed to cross river following there crossing around Bilohorivka yesterday, this time southeast of Yampil.
The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence have today published satellite imagery reportedly confirming the destruction of two Russian pontoon bridges across the Siverskyi Donets River, near the village of Bilohorivka, but this new crossing south of Yampil does not appear to have been repulsed. As such, if the Russians manage to sustain this foothold across the river and exploit the opening, they are likely to push south toward the town of Siversk, a notable railway and highway intersection.
If Siversk is taken, this would further threaten to cut off Ukrainian forces around Severodonetsk, particularly if corresponding Russian attacks out of Popasna generate some momentum in the coming days. The Ukrainians are anticipating a renewed Russian effort to move west from Popasna towards Bakhmut along the H-32 highway, with the aim of reaching the M-03 highway which connects Bakhmut to Slovyansk. Should this attack materialise, as the recent uptick in artillery strikes in the region suggest is likely, Russian forces will look to eventually position themselves to threaten Slovyansk from the southeast from Bakhmut. However, reaching Bakhmut remains a significant undertaking that would represent an advance of some 15-20km from Popasna, which given the slow rate of advance in recent weeks is unlikely to be achieved quickly.
Elsewhere along the frontline, unofficial pro-Russian sources have claimed that Ukrainian forces are attempting to cross the Severskyi Donets River near the town of Chepil, northwest of Izyum. At present the river in this direction west of Izyum marks the frontline between Ukrainian and Russian forces. Such claims cannot be confirmed at this stage, but Russian sources maintain such an assault would aim at cutting off Russian supply lines to Izyum, and depending on where an attempted crossing was made, could aim at applying pressure on parts of the key M-03 highway.
Despite the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive further north around Kharkiv city in recent days, it remains unclear whether Ukrainian forces retain sufficient combat power to successfully launch counteroffensives further south, given the significant concentration of Russian forces around Izyum. This stands in contrast to the relatively weak forces that had been stationed north of Kharkiv that ultimately allowed the successful counteroffensives in that direction, and so Ukrainian offensive operations further south will present a much more significant challenge.
In this respect, Russian forces north of Kharkiv have now turned to the defensive which has for now prevented Ukrainian forces from taking much further ground following their advances earlier in the week. While it remains to be seen whether significant concentrations of Russian reinforcements will be brought up from Belgorod to shore-up the Kharkiv axis, the Ukrainian General Staff have confirmed that various Russian units are conducting reconnaissance operations to slow further Ukrainian advances north of the city. Meanwhile, confirmation by pro-Russian media that the Ukrainians have indeed pushed the Russians back as far as 10km from the border in places underlines the reduced threat the north-eastern suburbs of Kharkiv now face from Russian artillery.
In the southern direction, the Ukrainians have confirmed Russian forces are continuing to heavily shell their positions across the frontline in Kherson oblast, particularly south of Kryvyi Rih, though there has been no further movement of the frontline. The Ukrainian General Staff have furthermore confirmed Russian attacks against the villages of Bruskynske and Velyka Oleksandrivka northeast of Kherson. Taking the villages is likely aimed at providing Russian forces with a more advantageous position for future assaults against Mykolaiv to the west, and as such, Russian forces continue to consolidate their position in Kherson ahead of possible future offensive operations in the coming weeks.
Russian authorities reported Ukrainian shelling across the border in Belgorod oblast overnight, reporting one dead and six wounded. This is the first time any Russian deaths have been reported following an alleged Ukrainian attack inside Russia. While Ukrainian officials have underlined the threat of false flag operations across the border designed to stir up anti-Ukrainian ‘hysteria’, Ukrainian forces have clearly been conducting successful sabotage and helicopter raids in recent weeks. Russian rhetoric in response to these operations will be a key indicator to watch to gauge the likelihood of mobilisation or a state of emergency being declared going forward, particularly now that Russian casualties have been acknowledged.
Long-range strikes inside Ukraine have also continued overnight, with cruise missiles seemingly launched at targets in Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Lozava and Poltava. Strikes and aerial bombardments were also conducted along the northern border in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts overnight, underlining the continued threat to areas in the north despite the Russian withdrawal from Northern Ukraine last month. Given the ongoing Belarusian rapid response drills being conducted along their southern border with Ukraine, the modest uptick in Russian strikes against Chernihiv oblast are likely to reiterate the threat to northern Ukraine, encouraging Ukrainian forces to continue screening the border and preventing their redeployment to support Ukrainian defensive operations in the south and east.
Over the past 24 hours, Russian forces have made some notable progress in the Donbas, with the Ukrainian General Staff confirming that Russia has taken ground around Rubizhne and the outskirts of Severodonetsk. Other attacks are also materialising at other critical points around the Severodonetsk salient, including against Lyman and Yampil in the north and around Popasna in the south. The Russians have also crossed the Siverskyi Donets river once again, which if maintained will apply pressure on Siversk and further threaten Ukrainian supply lines as the slow encirclement of the salient tightens.
Russian forces north of Kharkiv are now on the defensive following the successful Ukrainian counteroffensive earlier this week. The Ukrainian General Staff have confirmed that Russian units of the 6th and 41st Combined Arms Armies are now conducting reconnaissance operations against Ukrainian positions along this axis in a bid to slow further advances. While further reinforcements are likely to be brought up from Belgorod, such operations appear to have slowed the advance, with Ukrainian forces taking very little additional territory in this direction.
Long-range strikes inside Ukraine continued overnight, with cruise missiles seemingly launched at targets in Odesa, Zaporizhzhia, Lozava and Poltava. Strikes and aerial bombardments were also conducted along the northern border in Chernihiv and Sumy oblasts overnight, underlining the continued threat to areas in the north despite the Russian withdrawal from Northern Ukraine last month. Given the ongoing Belarusian rapid response drills being conducted along their southern border with Ukraine, the modest uptick in Russian strikes against Chernihiv oblast are likely to reiterate the threat to northern Ukraine. This will encourage Ukrainian forces to continue screening the border and prevent their redeployment to support Ukrainian defensive operations in the south and east.
On 12 May, local authorities in the Belgorod region reported that one person was killed and others injured as a result of cross-border shelling, marking the first time that a Russian civilian was killed since the start of the war. Belgorod region has been a site of several explosions in the last few weeks, including a strike on a fuel storage facility in April, though Kyiv has neither confirmed nor denied their potential involvement in the incidents. The latest development marks an escalation in the conflict given the local authorities’ claims of a first civilian casualty.

Military and hard security developments

Ukrainian forces have staged a successful counteroffensive north of Kharkiv, pushing Russian forces back to within 10km of the border in a number of places, with unconfirmed reports of Ukrainian forces having reached the border itself. Numerous towns and villages have been recaptured north and northeast of Kharkiv, placing additional pressure on key Russian lines of communication between Belgorod and its forces in Izyum. Reports of Russian forces moving north from Izyum already indicate the impact the counteroffensive is having on the displacement of Russian units in the wider region. This will likely mean a redirection of troops away from the frontline north of the Donbas which thus threatens to undermine Russia’s ability to capitalise on recent successes around the Severodonetsk salient. An estimated 19 Russian BTGs in Belgorod oblast are increasingly likely to be deployed to shore up the north Kharkiv axis and stem the Ukrainian counteroffensive in the coming days. Meanwhile, Russian operations out of Izyum have largely stalled, with the Ukrainian military anticipating a shift in focus eastwards, towards Lyman and the encirclement of the Severodonetsk salient – which the consolidation of Popasna to the south in the last few days has now made more of a pressing threat to Ukrainian forces.
Fighting for the control of Snake Island (Zmiinyi Island) continues as Ukraine reportedly managed to strike Russian resupply vessels with Bayraktar drones, underlining continued pressure on Russian naval forces following the sinking of the Moskva. The island is strategically important given its proximity to Odesa, and the potential control of the island could allow the Russian forces to “dominate the north-western Black Sea”, according to the latest reports from the UK Ministry of Defence.
According to the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Belarus, Minsk will move special forces to Ukraine’s border, stating that “the United States and its allies continue to increase their military presence at the state borders”. The developments are part of last week’s announcement of surprise Belarusian military drills. In line with our previous assessment, the risk of an offensive from Belarus is currently relatively low, with the latest developments likely a way for Russia to keep Ukrainian forces committed to screening the border rather than being deployed to the frontline in the east, particularly as Russia appears to be increasing its military efforts in the Donbas.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

Ukrainian media reported on 11 May that the Russia-installed leadership in Kherson will reportedly make a formal appeal to Putin to join Russia without a referendum. According to the reports, the Kherson region plans to fully transition to Russian law by the end of 2022. The reports further underline the high likelihood of Russia seeking to permanently integrate the territories that it has managed to capture so far into the Russian Federation, with further announcements regarding the status of Kherson likely to be made in the coming days.
Elsewhere, following the presidential elections in the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia, challenger Alan Gagloev defeated incumbent Anatoly Bibilov. Russia’s war in Ukraine played a key part in the campaign, with Bibilov stating that the region should seek “unification” with Russia before the first round of voting. Meanwhile, although Gagloev adopted a more cautious approach on the topic of joining Russia, his presidency will inevitably uphold continuity in relations with Moscow. Notably, however, on 11 May Gagloev reportedly stated that South Ossetia would wait for a signal from Russia before announcing a referendum, after Bibilov insisted the vote would take place despite him losing the election.
As such, the risk of such a vote being announced will endure in the months ahead, and with much of the local population considering themselves ethnically Russian – in comparison to those in the breakaway Abkhazia – the likelihood of annexation will remain higher-than-usual given the ongoing war in Ukraine and Moscow’s ambitions to integrate the captured territories. As such, the dynamics will exacerbate political volatility in Georgia, and drive risk of internal destabilisation in the months ahead, but Gagloev’s more cautious approach towards a referendum will mean such a vote will likely only go ahead if a decision is made in Moscow to annex the region. Such a move would pose some political costs for the Kremlin, namely reducing Moscow’s leverage over Georgia through its Ossetian proxies. However, it is likely to remain a policy kept in the Kremlin’s back pocket in the event that the military situation in Ukraine deteriorates, allowing Moscow to claim further territory that is unlikely to be contested militarily by the Georgian government.
On 10 May, the Fives Eye Intelligence alliance, the European Union (EU), and Ukraine formally attributed the pre-invasion cyber attack against satellite communications provider Viasat to the Russian government. The Vice President of the European Commission claimed that the cyber attack caused “indiscriminate communication outages and disruptions across several public authorities, businesses, and users in Ukraine”, as well as tens of thousands of terminals outside of Ukraine linked to wind turbines and internet providers. These press releases further underscore the wave of disruptive and destructive cyber attacks, including DDoS and data wipers, that Moscow launched against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in the early stages of the invasion to limit Kyiv’s ability to coordinate a response to Russia’s military offensives. The degree of disruption caused by Russian cyber attacks has levelled off in recent weeks. However, there has been a notable uptick in Moscow-linked phishing/vulnerability scanning activity targeting Ukraine-based organisations. While such activity does not inherently mean that another large-scale cyber attack is imminent, such attacks could be launched in support of a renewed Russian offensive in Ukraine and heighten the risk of further “cyber spill over” incidents emerging.
On 11 May, the British and Swedish prime ministers Boris Johnson and Magdalena Andersson signed a security declaration that sets out guarantees to come to one another’s aid if either state is attacked. London has also extended these guarantees to neighbouring Finland, where a similar declaration is likely to be signed tomorrow, 12 May, when Johnson visits Helsinki. Details of the declaration remain limited, with intelligence sharing, technological cooperation and joint military exercises mentioned by Johnson and Andersson, though the scope of assistance if attacked will ultimately be determined by what Sweden requests. The timing and potential scope of the declaration is highly significant as both Sweden and Finland move ever closer towards a formal application to NATO, with a decision expected later this month. During the press conference, Andersson highlighted that Russia has already threatened Sweden with an unspecified “response” if Stockholm decides to apply to join NATO. As such, the ambiguous language of the declaration that could encompass British military support will likely provide Moscow with pause for thought on any ‘military-technical’ or overt aggressive operation against Sweden if it applies for NATO membership next month. Nevertheless, the declaration will reinforce the risks of conflict spill over impacting NATO member states in the event of an escalation.
The most significant developments over the last 24 hours have been north of Kharkiv city, where Ukrainian forces have succeeded in capitalising on earlier counter-offensives to push the Russians further back towards the border. The Ukrainian General Staff have now claimed Ukrainian forces have recaptured the towns of Cherkasy Tyshky and Ruski Tushky to the north, as well as the villages of Bairak and Rubizhne (notably a different Rubizhne to that in the Severodonetsk salient) to the north-east of Kharkiv, all of which are less than 10km from the Russian border. There are furthermore unconfirmed Ukrainian reports that their force have managed to reach the border at multiple points.
Despite its importance for securing supply lines between Belgorod and forces north of Izyum, Russian forces on this axis have remained relatively weak. Only three BTGs worth of largely combat ineffective units were estimated to have been in the area, where reliance upon minefields appears to have been the primary means of holding off Ukrainian counterattacks. The success of the Ukrainian counteroffensives has now forced Russian forces to withdraw in key areas, with reports indicating that they are now bringing up reinforcements from north of Izyum to stymie further Ukrainian counterattacks. 19 BTGs worth of troops are furthermore estimated to have amassed in Belgorod oblast across the border, which are increasingly likely to be brought forward to prevent further Ukrainian advances that could ultimately place the key highways of the 14K-3 and T2104 within conventional artillery range, threatening key Russian lines of communication.
However, the most significant impact the Kharkiv counteroffensives will have on the battlefield will arguably be in forcing the Russians to divert troops away from the Izyum salient and the northern Donbas, limiting opportunities for Russians to exploit and capitalise on recent successes. Ukrainian intelligence already indicates a potential Russian pivot in focus away from the Izyum salient and towards attacks against Lyman and Yampil to the east, from where pressure on Slovyansk could subsequently be applied. Such a change in focus remains especially plausible given the likely need to redirect Izyum-stationed troops to the Kharkiv axis to prevent further Ukrainian counterattacks.
This could furthermore undermine the ability of Russian forces to make progress on the Severodonetsk salient – the last hold out region of Luhansk oblast that continues to prevent the Kremlin from claiming they have “liberated” the entirety of the first separatist republic. Underlining the mounting pressure on Ukrainian defences along this salient, Russian reconnaissance units managed for the first time to cross the Siverskyi Donets River at Bilohorivka yesterday. While Ukrainian forces reportedly forced the Russians back across the river, it represents the first time Russian forces have crossed since the seizure of Izyum earlier in the invasion and underscores the likely Russian aim of creating a tactical encirclement of the Severodonetsk salient. However, the reported destruction of a Russian pontoon bridge following the attack could yet delay further Russian progress in that direction as Ukrainian forces continue to use the natural defences of the river to their advantage.
Russian forces have now consolidated their control over Popasna to the south, and so options for tightening the Severodonetsk encirclement by pushing west or north towards Lysychansk remain open, where the Ukrainian 17th Tank and 24th Mechanised brigades are taking up secondary prepared defensive positions. This will remain a key area to watch in the coming days as to the extent to which the threat the Ukrainians now pose to the Kharkiv axis will limit further progress in the Donbas over the coming days.
Elsewhere, the Russian Ministry of Defence claimed on 10 May that Russian forces repelled a Ukrainian attack to reclaim Snake Island (Zmiinyi), though this has not been confirmed. Snake Island remains a critical propaganda prize for both sides given its symbolic importance during the opening hours of the invasion. However, the island’s location in the North Black Sea and its proximity to the Romanian coast means it will remain a highly strategic base that will significantly enhance Russian anti-access/area-denial (A2/AD) capabilities in the Black Sea. As a result, Russia will likely take pains to shore up defences of the island, though mounting Ukrainian confidence and recent naval successes in the surrounding waters will mean further attacks will likely be attempted in the coming weeks.
On 10 May the Belarusian Ministry of Defence announced that start of a second phase of ongoing military drills, in response to alleged claims that the US and NATO are preparing to attack Belarus. Minsk has claimed that NATO is building up its forces along the Polish and Baltic borders, with such forces threatening Belarus through reconnaissance, sabotage and special operations. While the majority of Belarusian troops are now directed towards NATO’s borders to conduct rapid response drills, the Ministry has stated that the presence of some 20,000 Ukrainian troops near the Belarusian border has necessitated the deployment of an unspecified quantity of troops, including special forces, in three tactical directions. Ultimately such rhetoric and military posturing remains on trend and is unlikely to indicate any impending military escalation involving Belarus. It is more likely an exercise in demonstrating Minsk’s support for Russia and potentially reminding Ukrainian forces of the potential threat to their northern borders, aimed at preventing the redeployment of Ukrainian forces to the frontline in the east.
The weather forecast in Ukraine for the coming seven days indicates frequent cloud cover and rain, which will likely impact Russian air and artillery operations. Temperatures together with said rain will mean the ground is unlikely to dry out much further over the coming days, ensuring challenging off-road movement for Russian mechanised forces is set to continue in the short term.

Economic/business environment developments

On 11 May, Ukraine’s state-owned gas pipeline operator, the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU), halted part of Russian natural gas flows to Europe via the Sokhranivka gas metering station. The move closely followed GTSOU’s announcement that “interference of the occupying forces in technical processes” at the Novopskov compressor station had forced it to declare a force majeure. Meanwhile, Russian state-owned Gazprom reportedly rejected GTSOU’s proposal to redistribute gas transit volumes to an alternative entry point at Sudzha, labelling it “technologically impossible”. The development represents the first significant disruption to the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine since the war began, driving a 6.8 percent spike in European gas prices. With the suspension affecting approximately one third of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine to Europe, further price increases are likely in the coming weeks, increasing operational costs for business and further exacerbating European energy insecurity.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) remains a severe issue impeding the return of residents and businesses to Kyiv and the surrounding oblast. The delivery of Canadian bomb disposal units by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on 8 May will boost Ukrainian de-mining capacity in Kyiv oblast, but nevertheless UXO will remain a key threat to civilian life and resumption of business in the months ahead.
Significant risk of targeted and indiscriminate air and missile strikes across central and western Ukraine remains. Russian forces retain the ability to strike across the entirety of Ukraine, and will likely continue to target major transport infrastructure (particularly railways and airfields) believed to be transit points for Western military aid. This will seriously impact efforts to move humanitarian aid, particularly moving existing aid into eastern Ukraine, where food, water and power shortages continue to escalate in severity.
The H01/P01 and the E40 roads are the most viable routes for road access to and from Kyiv. The E40 and the E373 highways were declared ‘open’ for traffic by Ukrainian authorities and are now relatively safe, however, they remain heavily damaged. The threat of air attacks remains high and therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes. The threat posed by mines and unexploded ordnance also remains high across Kyiv oblast. We note that this advisory is supported by a warning from the Kyiv Region Military Administration on 12 April stating that unoccupied towns and settlements adjacent to Kyiv should not be re-settled by civilian populations due to high quantities of mines and unexploded ordnance.
The westbound E50 road to Oleksandriya, and from there the H01 highway, seems to be a relatively safer route from Dnipro to Kyiv. Between Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, there are two main road routes: the H08 and E105. Due to Russian military targeting civilian and military aviation infrastructure with missile strikes, we believe there is substantial risk associated with all road routes into Zaporizhzhia, as the H08 is close to Shyroke Airfield just north-west of Zaporizhzhia, and the E105 passes through Zaporizhzhia International Airport and then Vilniansk Airfield. As such, we assess that all approaches into Zaporizhzhia face elevated risk from air/missile strikes at present.

FORECAST

US intelligence reported yesterday that it believes that Putin is prepared for a protracted conflict, stating that the war is likely to become “more unpredictable and escalatory” in the months ahead. More specifically, Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines noted yesterday during her remarks to the Senate Armed Services Committee that “Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities”, which could push him to deploy more dramatic means. Nevertheless, in line with our previous assessments, US intelligence also noted that the use of nuclear weapons – either tactical or battlefield – is still unlikely at present, unless Putin felt a clear existential threat to Moscow. Although still highly unlikely to provoke a more drastic response from Russia, yesterday’s comments from Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis that Putin and his regime must be removed and that Lithuania is seeking a permanent US troop presence, will only exacerbate tensions with Russia. Related to this, French President Emmanuel Macron stated yesterday that the EU is not at war with Russia and warned against the bloc “humiliating” Putin to facilitate a stable post-war settlement. Ultimately, however, faced with more nations seeking to join NATO – now potentially backed by British military guarantees – and faced with continued resistance from Kyiv, Moscow may well resort to further nuclear threats as a deterrent.

Global: The risk of Russia-linked “cyber spillover” incidents to remain high in light of the West’s formal attribution of the Viasat cyber attack to Moscow. On 10 May, the Fives Eye Intelligence alliance, the European Union (EU), and Ukraine formally attributed the pre-invasion cyber attack on satellite communications provider Viasat to the Russian government. Vice President of the European Commission Josep Borrell Fontelles claimed that the cyber attack caused “indiscriminate communication outages and disruptions across several public authorities, businesses, and users in Ukraine”, as well as tens of thousands of terminals outside of Ukraine linked to wind turbines and internet providers. These press releases further underscore the wave of disruptive and destructive cyber attacks, including DDoS and data wipers, that Moscow launched against Ukraine’s critical infrastructure in the early stages of the invasion to limit Kyiv’s ability to coordinate a response to Russia’s military offensives. The degree of disruption caused by Russian cyber attacks has levelled off in recent weeks. However, there has been a notable uptick in Moscow-linked phishing/ vulnerability scanning activity targeted against Ukraine-based organisations. While such activity does not inherently mean that another large-scale cyber attack is imminent, such attacks could potentially be launched in support of a renewed Russian offensive in Ukraine and heighten the risk of further “cyber spillover” incidents emerging.

Russia-Ukraine: Partial suspension of Russian gas flows likely to drive further European price spikes and energy insecurity. On 11 May, Ukraine’s state-owned gas pipeline operator, the Gas Transmission System Operator of Ukraine (GTSOU), halted part of Russian natural gas flows to Europe via the Sokhranivka gas metering station. The move closely followed GTSOU’s announcement that “interference of the occupying forces in technical processes” at the Novopskov compressor station had forced it to declare a force majeure. Meanwhile, Russian state-owned Gazprom reportedly rejected GTSOU’s proposal to redistribute gas transit volumes to an alternative entry point at Sudzha, labelling it “technologically impossible”. The development represents the first significant disruption to the transit of Russian gas through Ukraine since the war began, driving a 6.8 percent spike in European gas prices. With the suspension affecting approximately one third of Russian gas transiting through Ukraine to Europe, further price increases are likely in the coming weeks, increasing operational costs for business and further exacerbating European energy insecurity.

Pakistan-China: Likely closure of Chinese operations will worsen energy crisis. On 9 May, representatives from over 30 Chinese companies operating in Pakistan under the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) raised several concerns over financial, taxation, visa, reputational, and policy issues with government officials. The companies, including independent power producers (IPPs), noted that unless they were paid Rs300 bn (USD 1.57 bn) in debt, they would have to cease operations within days. The warning comes at a time when Pakistan is facing a significant energy crisis due to soaring prices of fuel and a spike in energy demand as the country struggles with soaring summer temperatures. Withdrawal of operations may lead to additional power cuts threatening industrial activity and overall socio-economic health, at a time when Pakistan is in desperate need of an IMF relief package. Further, the concerns aired by Chinese businesses indicate operational setbacks and policy risks other foreign businesses looking to operate in the region will likely face despite the change in government.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

As anticipated, following expedited debates regarding potential application for NATO membership, Finland’s Prime Minister and President jointly announced today, 12 May, that they are in favour of joining the alliance, marking a notable policy shift since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Whilst formal confirmation will be given on 15 May, the latest public opinion polls indicate that public support in Finland for joining NATO sprung up to a record high of 76%, compared to 20-25% in recent years prior to the invasion. Sweden is highly likely to follow suit in the coming days. In response, Russia will continue, and potentially increase, its posturing, which is likely to include carrying out aerial incursions, cyber attacks, nuclear threats, and disinformation/misinformation campaigns. Indeed, following Finland’s announcement former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev reacted by stating that NATO’s support of Ukraine will “increase the likelihood of a direct and open conflict between NATO and Russia”, underlining the escalatory rhetoric and heightened regional tensions. Nevertheless, it remains our assessment that an imminent military conflict in either Finland or Sweden is unlikely in the short-to-medium term, with Russia unlikely to escalate to this level unless its territory comes under a direct attack.
Meanwhile, in Ukraine yesterday, Russia-backed separatists in the breakaway Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) announced that they have blocked access to Facebook and Instagram in the controlled districts. The developments will align the information landscape in the republics even closer with Russia, where social and traditional media information, specifically regarding the war in Ukraine, is heavily restricted. Similar such information controls will highly likely be established in other territories that Russia has managed to capture, particularly in Kherson, where the Russia-installed authorities have already announced that they will ask to formally join Russia, likely in the coming days.

Economic/business environment developments

On 11 May, Moscow published a list of sanctioned entities, which notably includes Gazprom Germania, and dozens of other entities that have imposed sanctions on Russia over its war in Ukraine. Sanctions against local Gazprom subsidiaries, such as Gazprom Germania, follow a move by German regulators in April to take control of the entity’s operations to ensure energy security after Russia’s Gazprom relinquished its ownership of the firm. The German Economy Ministry is currently examining the implications of the announcement, though the government stated that gas supplies are currently guaranteed and routinely monitored. Nevertheless, the development threatens a shortage of gas supplies to Gazprom Germania’s subsidiaries and short-term disruptions and price spikes given that companies under Russian sanctions will not be able to participate in gas supplies, according to the Kremlin.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Several Central and Eastern European (CEE) nations are beginning to observe street protests against the influx of Ukrainian refugees into the European Union (just under 6 m total as of 1500hrs 12 May). Notably, Slovakia has seen the emergence of protests in several cities over the past 72hrs decrying government aid given to Ukrainian refugees, under slogans such as ‘What about us and our Slovak children?’. Whilst anti-refugee narratives are widely prevalent in several CEE nations – notably among the Visegrad Four (Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia) – the Ukrainian refugee crisis has been to date met with substantial levels of public goodwill across the wider region. Nevertheless, we assess that emergent disinformation narratives, such as those spread by the pro-Russian ‘Varazhdane’ party in Bulgaria and the far-right Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) party in the Czech Republic, will foment negative sentiment specifically toward Ukrainian refugees in coming weeks and months, heightening the risk of more sustained street protests possibly resulting in unrest and targeting of Ukrainian refugees.
Unexploded ordnance (UXO) remains a severe issue impeding the return of residents and businesses to Kyiv and the surrounding oblast. The delivery of Canadian bomb disposal units by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on 8 May will boost Ukrainian de-mining capacity in Kyiv oblast, but nevertheless UXO will remain a key threat to civilian life and resumption of business in the months ahead.
Significant risk of targeted and indiscriminate air and missile strikes across central and western Ukraine remains. Russian forces retain the ability to strike across the entirety of Ukraine, and will likely continue to target major transport infrastructure (particularly railways and airfields) believed to be transit points for Western military aid. This will seriously impact efforts to move humanitarian aid, particularly moving existing aid into eastern Ukraine, where food, water and power shortages continue to escalate in severity.
The H01/P01 and the E40 roads are the most viable routes for road access to and from Kyiv. The E40 and the E373 highways were declared ‘open’ for traffic by Ukrainian authorities and are now relatively safe, however, they remain heavily damaged. The threat of air attacks remains high and therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes. The threat posed by mines and unexploded ordnance also remains high across Kyiv oblast. We note that this advisory is supported by a warning from the Kyiv Region Military Administration on 12 April stating that unoccupied towns and settlements adjacent to Kyiv should not be re-settled by civilian populations due to high quantities of mines and unexploded ordnance.
The westbound E50 road to Oleksandriya, and from there the H01 highway, seems to be a relatively safer route from Dnipro to Kyiv. Between Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, there are two main road routes: the H08 and E105. Due to Russian military targeting civilian and military aviation infrastructure with missile strikes, we believe there is substantial risk associated with all road routes into Zaporizhzhia, as the H08 is close to Shyroke Airfield just north-west of Zaporizhzhia, and the E105 passes through Zaporizhzhia International Airport and then Vilniansk Airfield. As such, we assess that all approaches into Zaporizhzhia face elevated risk from air/missile strikes at present.

FORECAST

Following the joint statement by the Finnish President and Prime Minister today, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov has stated that Finland’s decision to join NATO presents a threat to Russia. Helsinki’s decision to move rapidly on a NATO application, which is set to be formally announced on 15 May alongside the decision by Sweden on the same issue, raises the question of how Russia will respond in the coming days and weeks. The Russian Foreign Ministry has already stated that if Finland joins NATO it will be forced to take ‘retaliatory steps’, both of a ‘military-technical’ nature and otherwise, without specifying what such actions would entail. Peskov did however state that a “special analysis” of the situation will be conducted and that Russia’s response will depend on “how far the military infrastructure [of NATO] will move closer to our borders”. As such, a Russian response may wait until further details about NATO deployments to the region are made, though in the meantime the risk of retaliation remains. As highlighted in previous reports, numerous NATO states have been conducting joint military exercises with Finland over the last few weeks. In particular, following the signing of a new Anglo-Swedish security pact earlier this week which also covers mutual assistance for Finland, British troops of the Queen’s Royal Hussars have been embedded in a Finnish armoured brigade as part of the Joint Expeditionary Force (JEF) exercises this week, alongside US, Latvian and Estonian allies. As such, there are already NATO troops in Finland (albeit under the aegis of the JEF rather than NATO), which given the timing of the Finnish announcements are likely to act as a tripwire force that will deter any overtly hostile military response from Russia. In the short term, traditional ‘military-technical’ measures in the form of limited aerial and naval incursions, nuclear threats and limited DoS cyber attacks against government systems and those of companies operating closely with the public sector are most likely. Russia could also move to introduce controls at the Finnish border that could cause no-notice disruption and potentially limit border crossings given the St Petersburg-Helsinki rail and road routes remain a popular means of leaving Russia as flight restrictions continue.

Finland: Nation confirms intention to apply for NATO membership, sustaining regional tensions with Russia. Kazakhstan-Turkey: Bilateral visit highlights opportunities for expansion of regional trade and partnerships On 10 May, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his first state visit to Turkey since he assumed power in 2019. The agenda involved discussing “steps aimed at enhancing bilateral cooperation” and “regional and international matters”, indirectly referring to the conflict in Ukraine. Following the visit, Tokayev announced the need to leverage the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which was launched in 2017 and bypasses Russia in connecting China’s rail freight transport networks with the European Union. The increased use of the TITR could underpin the expansion of regional trade in the coming months, as Kazakhstan looks to balance its reliance on trade relations with Russia while simultaneously seeking opportunities for diversification. Meanwhile, the visit and related trade opportunities are likely to support Ankara’s bid to expand its influence over the Turkic regions in Central Asia in the medium-term, as Turkic states rebalance their ties with Russia. Finland’s Prime Minster Sanna Marin and President Sauli Niinisto gave a joint press conference this morning, 12 May, confirming their wish for Finland to apply for NATO membership ‘without delay’. Whilst a full decision will be made by 15 May by Finland’s parliament, public and political support appears to be at an all-time high, with over 70% of the public supporting membership. Whilst the Finnish Minister of Foreign Affairs, speaking to the European Parliament’s Foreign Affairs Committee this morning, stated Finland does not face ‘an immediate military threat’, the security situation is widely considered among Finnish politicians to be conducive to joining the defence bloc. As such, with Sweden also expected to confirm its intention to join NATO by 15 May, tensions with Russia will remain elevated following the Kremlin’s warning last month of ‘military and political repercussions’ if either state joins NATO. Companies operating closely with governments in either country are at elevated risk of sustained cyber attack in coming months. There may also be disruption or delays at border crossings from Finland into Russia that could affect more the than Euros 5 bn in exports to Russia from both countries combined.

Kazakhstan-Turkey: Bilateral visit highlights opportunities for expansion of regional trade and partnerships. On 10 May, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev met with Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan during his first state visit to Turkey since he assumed power in 2019. The agenda involved discussing “steps aimed at enhancing bilateral cooperation” and “regional and international matters”, indirectly referring to the conflict in Ukraine. Following the visit, Tokayev announced the need to leverage the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which was launched in 2017 and bypasses Russia in connecting China’s rail freight transport networks with the European Union. The increased use of the TITR could underpin the expansion of regional trade in the coming months, as Kazakhstan looks to balance its reliance on trade relations with Russia while simultaneously seeking opportunities for diversification. Meanwhile, the visit and related trade opportunities are likely to support Ankara’s bid to expand its influence over the Turkic regions in Central Asia in the medium-term, as Turkic states rebalance their ties with Russia.

Global: Five Eyes advisory underscores heightened threat from supply chain attacks. On 11 May, the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, consisted of Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the UK and the US, issued a joint cyber security advisory (SCA) highlighting threats targeting managed service providers (MSPs) and their customers. The SCA warned that malicious threat actors, including state-sponsored advanced persistent threat (APT) groups, would likely ramp up their champaign against ICT supply chains over the coming months. A compromised MSP would then allow hackers to access its customers’ network to conduct follow-on attacks, such as ransomware and cyber espionage, as evidenced by the Kaseya and the SolarWinds hack (see Sibylline Alert – 6 July 2021). Hackers linked to Russia, China and North Korea are the most active actors in supply chain attacks. Given the proliferation of MSPs, such as cloud computing services during the Covid-19 pandemic, cyber threat actors will continue considering them an attractive route to exploit a broader range of potential targets, both commercial entities and public institutions. In addition to maintaining up-to-date systems and strong passwords with multi-factor verification, MSP users are advised to apply the principle of least privilege throughout their networks and implement regular offline back-up tests for incident recovery, as part of measures to mitigate supply chain attack risks.

Russia: No major policy announcements following Victory Day with war set to continue in the months ahead. Notably, at the much-anticipated 9 May Victory Day parade, President Vladimir Putin did not make any major military policy announcements. However, whilst Russia did not explicitly announce plans to escalate the situation, there are no indications that Moscow will wind down its offensive in Ukraine, with local Ukrainian officials stating that in areas south of Kharkiv, some Russian units had reportedly moved north. This indicates that Russia may try to reinforce its supply lines from Belgorod. As such, with Putin portraying the war in Ukraine as a wider conflict between Russia and NATO, alleging that the NATO forces were preparing to attack Russia, the indication is that the domestic audience in Russia is being prepared to expect a protracted conflict. Russian forces will likely seek to accelerate the pace of its offensive in the coming days following weeks of stalling and failure to make progress.

The Russian offensive in the Donbas continues to make little progress, though Russian forces have made small gains around Severodonetsk as heavy fighting continues around Rubizhne over the last 24 hours. Little progress has been made around Izyum, though Russian forces continue to concentrate in the region. Both the Ukrainian General Staff and US defence officials expect fresh offensive operations in the coming days south of Izyum towards Dmytrivka and Kurulka, as well as southeast of Izyum towards Lyman, all in a bid to make progress towards the key Ukrainian hub in Slovyansk.
Long-range missile strikes furthermore continued beyond the Donbas region, with Odesa remaining a key focus of cruise missile strikes over the last 24 hours. Two missiles have reportedly destroyed two hotels and wider infrastructure Odesa, underscoring the continued threat to civilian infrastructure in the city. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has furthermore highlighted an increase in the number of Kalibr cruise missile-capable Russian warships in the Black Sea, up from three last week to seven today. While the sinking of the Moskva and wider Ukrainian maritime operations continue to ensure Russian naval commanders are much more cautious in approaching the Ukrainian coast, the presence of a number of what are in effect cruise missile platforms indicates a continued threat of long-range strikes against not only Odesa but other cities across Ukraine in the coming days. Indeed, President Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day speech yesterday underlines that the threat from long-range cruise, ballistic, and hypersonic missiles will not abate for the foreseeable future.
Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger stated on 10 May that the company will be able to deliver the first repaired Marder infantry fighting vehicles (IFVs) to Ukraine in three weeks. The announcement follows the historic vote in Germany’s Bundestag last month that approved the transfer of German heavy weapons systems to Ukraine, though the Chancellery continues to remain quiet on the extent of these transfers. In related developments, on 9 May US President Joe Biden signed a lend-lease bill into law, which will hasten the transfer of military equipment and supplies to Ukraine by cutting bureaucratic red tape. According to US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken, the Ukrainian military could receive new weapons systems as soon as 72 hours after the signing of the bill, and so the quantity of US military support to Ukraine will increase notably in the coming weeks, further augmenting Ukrainian capabilities as Putin seemingly doubles down on fighting a more protracted conflict in the coming months.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

Finland’s Minister for European Affairs Tytti Tuppurainen stated that it is “highly likely” that Finland will apply for NATO membership, stating also that this is “a very natural response” to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Finnish Parliament’s defence committee has also today said Finland should join the alliance, as a decision on whether to proceed with an application is expected as early as this week. The statements are consistent with our previous assessments that instead of deterring NATO membership, Russia’s war in Ukraine has instead accelerated its expansion, with discussions on joining the alliance currently also taking place in Sweden, which has traditionally been more reluctant than neighbouring Finland. The former is due to announce its stance on a potential NATO membership on 15 May. As such, the developments in both countries will sustain the heightened risk of Russian aerial incursions and cyber attacks in the weeks ahead.
US President Joe Biden stated on 9 May that he is worried that Vladimir Putin does not have “a way out” of the war in Ukraine. The comment underscores the risks of an escalation over the mid to longer term if the war in Ukraine protracts and Ukrainian forces begin to gain the upper hand following widespread Western arms deliveries and mounting Russian casualties. Putin’s Victory Day speech underscored that Moscow intends to continue fighting in Ukraine, despite the increasingly limited progress its forces have made in recent weeks in the Donbas.
Growing Ukrainian confidence in its ability to conduct successful counter-offensives in the meantime furthermore underlines this potential trend, with Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressing Ukraine’s aim to reclaim all its occupied territories. As such, if Russian forces are unable to make major progress in the coming weeks and months, the risk of an escalation will increase, with Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Aleksandr Grushko refusing to rule out tactical nuclear weapons use in Ukraine, suggesting it remains an option under Russian military doctrine. Ultimately this remains still highly unlikely, with other options available to the Kremlin prior to any nuclear escalation, such as a general mobilisation. Nevertheless, as the war continues and Western weapons continue to build Ukrainian offensive capabilities, the lack of any Russian progress will reinforce escalation risks in the months ahead.

Economic/business environment developments

The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen met with Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orban on 9 May to discuss plans for a Russian oil embargo. Although von der Leyen noted “progress” during the talks, as anticipated the two sides failed to ultimately reach an agreement as Hungary remains resistant to supporting an EU-level ban on Russian oil. A further call between Orban and EU leaders has been postponed today after Orban compared oil embargo plans to a nuclear bomb in terms of its impacts on the Hungarian economy. Nevertheless, EU officials remain optimistic that an agreement over an embargo will be reached as early as this week, with Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic reportedly offered a delay in imposing the embargo until 2024 to allow those countries more time to convert their refineries to accept non-Russian oil, which both Hungary and Slovakia in particular remain almost entirely reliant upon.
On 10 May, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called on the international community to take immediate steps to end the Russian blockade of Ukrainian ports to mitigate a mounting global food shortage. A UN food agency official last week estimated that almost 25 m tonnes of grain are currently stuck in Ukraine and unable to be exported, with the current backlog likely to mean there will not be enough capacity to store the new harvest later in the summer. The Russian blockade of Odesa has ground export operations to a complete stand still, seriously threatening the food supply to countries that had previously been heavily reliant upon Ukrainian agricultural exports, particularly in Africa and the Middle East.
However, the options available to the international community to do anything about the blockade remain almost non-existent given the absence of NATO warships in the Black Sea, the Turkish invocation of the Montreux Convention preventing any further warship deployments through the Bosphorus, and most importantly NATO’s continued refusal to intervene directly. While the loss of the Moskva has had an impact on limiting some Russian naval operations in the Northern Black Sea, Russian forces continue to deny these sea lanes to any third party. As a result, the only real options remain providing Ukrainian forces with capable anti-shipping weaponry that can degrade the Black Sea Fleet’s surface capabilities. However, even this would be insufficient to break the blockade in the short to medium term, ensuring major disruptions to food exports are still expected following the harvest later this year.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) remains a severe issue impeding the return of residents and businesses to Kyiv and the surrounding oblast. The delivery of Canadian bomb disposal units by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on 8 May will boost Ukrainian de-mining capacity in Kyiv oblast, but nevertheless UXO will remain a key threat to civilian life and resumption of business in the months ahead.
Significant risk of targeted and indiscriminate air and missile strikes across central and western Ukraine remains. Despite their withdrawal from Kyiv oblast on 6 April, Russian forces retain the ability to strike across the entirety of Ukraine, and will likely continue to target major transport infrastructure (particularly railways and airfields) believed to be transit points for Western military aid. This will seriously impact efforts to move humanitarian aid into Ukraine, and particularly to move existing aid into eastern Ukraine, where food, water and power shortages continue to escalate in severity.
The H01/P01 and the E40 roads are the most viable routes for road access to and from Kyiv. The E40 and the E373 highways were declared ‘open’ for traffic by Ukrainian authorities and are now relatively safe, however, they remain heavily damaged and road-clearing processes continue which may cause delays. The threat of air attacks remains high and therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes. The threat posed by mines and unexploded ordnance also remains high across Kyiv oblast. We note that this advisory is supported by a warning from the Kyiv Region Military Administration on 12 April stating that unoccupied towns and settlements adjacent to Kyiv should not be re-settled by civilian populations due to high quantities of mines and unexploded ordnance.
The H01/P01 and the E40 roads are the most viable routes for road access to and from Kyiv. The E40 and the E373 highways were declared ‘open’ for traffic by Ukrainian authorities and are now relatively safe, however, they remain heavily damaged and road-clearing processes continue which may cause delays. The threat of air attacks remains high and therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes. The threat posed by mines and unexploded ordnance also remains high across Kyiv oblast. We note that this advisory is supported by a warning from the Kyiv Region Military Administration on 12 April stating that unoccupied towns and settlements adjacent to Kyiv should not be re-settled by civilian populations due to high quantities of mines and unexploded ordnance.
Due to air attacks on Kremenchuk and Uman on 25 April, the westbound E50 road to Oleksandriya, and from there the H01 highway, seems to be a relatively safer route from Dnipro to Kyiv. Between Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, there are two main road routes: the H08 and E105. Due to Russian military targeting civilian and military aviation infrastructure with missile strikes, we believe there is substantial risk associated with all road routes into Zaporizhzhia, as the H08 is close to Shyroke Airfield just north-west of Zaporizhzhia, and the E105 passes through Zaporizhzhia International Airport and then Vilniansk Airfield. As such, we assess that all approaches into Zaporizhzhia face elevated risk from air/missile strikes at present.

FORECAST

On 9 May, Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba expressed a growing confidence in Kyiv’s ability to win the war, stating that Ukraine’s aim is not only to push the Russian forces back to the positions they held before 24 February, but to “win the battle for Donbas”. Kuleba furthermore noted that the victory for Kyiv “will be the liberation of the rest of our territories”, underlining the determination in Kyiv to continue fighting amid the ongoing inflow of military aid from the west. The statement comes after President Vladimir Putin’s Victory Day speech on 9 May saw no military policy announcements, though he continued to frame the war in Ukraine as a struggle against NATO and alleged that NATO was preparing attacks on Crimea, one of the occupied regions that Kyiv is increasingly determined to reclaim. As Ukrainian military capability continues to build amid Western arms shipments and intelligence sharing, the Kremlin will likely perceive such an operation as an increasing seriously threat, particularly if Russian forces are unable to achieve notable progress in the Donbas or Kherson oblast in coming weeks. More widely, Kuleba also stated that if Ukraine does not receive EU candidate member status in June, when the European Commission are expected to publish their opinion on the matter, it would be perceived in Kyiv as the EU deceiving Ukraine, stating that the government would not “swallow it”. This will apply additional pressure on the Commission ahead of the June announcement, particularly after French President Emmanuel Macron stated on 9 May that Ukrainian membership could take years. In a speech to the European Parliament in Strasbourg, Macron also proposed a new European political community that would bind the European continent together with collective security and energy policies and would be open to Ukraine and other non-EU states, such as the UK. Kuleba has already indicated that membership of such an entity would not satisfy Kyiv, with EU membership still the ultimate goal. However, the proposed entity could prove the most realistic option for linking Ukraine with the rest of Europe in the medium term given continued resistance and/or reticence towards Kyiv’s EU membership from various sections of the EU. As such, further details around Macron’s proposal will be a key trend to watch in the coming weeks, as it could indicate efforts by the EU to roll back expectations of Ukrainian candidate membership.

Ukraine’s General Staff announced that most of the action is unfolding in the Donetsk region, with Russian forces making modest ground in the Donbas over the last 24 hours, including around Severodonetsk. The Ukrainians and US are both maintaining that Russian forces are concentrating on a push southeast of Izyum in the direction of Slovyansk, a major operational and supply hub for Ukrainian forces in the Donbas. The Ukrainian General Staff are anticipating a Russian offensive towards Nova Dmytrivka and Kurulka in the coming days, with an uptick in artillery strikes and probing attacks south-east of Izyum also indicating attempted advances towards Lyman, another transport hub. Intense fighting has also continued around Rubizhne in the far-north of the Severodonetsk salient, as the Russians continue to apply pressure following the confirmation that Poposna at the southern end of the salient was taken by Russian forces over the weekend.
North of Kharkiv, recent Ukrainian counter-offensives have continued to apply pressure on Russian supply lines and its limited combat power in the region, which is estimated to be currently around 3 BTGs worth north of the city. However, Ukraine’s military have now reported that Russia is reinforcing its presence along the northern border, likely in a bid to prevent Ukrainian forces from pushing toward the border. The Ukrainian General Staff have stated that it estimates Russian forces have amassed 19 BTGs in Belgorod Oblast across the border. A senior US defence official furthermore stated on 9 May that Russian forces have not yet abandoned efforts to partly encircle the city from the north and east, and so the Belgorod forces could be committed to reinforcing the Kharkiv frontline in the coming days and weeks.
Russian attacks against the Azovstal steel plant continue. According to a Telegram post by an aide to the mayor of Mariupol, Petro Andryushchenko, at least 100 civilians still remain in the steel works, despite previous Ukrainian and Russian reports indicating no civilian were left at the plant and that evacuations were completed, respectively.
Attacks on Odesa continued on Monday, with the city reportedly being hit with cruise missiles, including Russia’s hypersonic Kinzhal missiles, resulting in the destruction of two hotels and other local infrastructure. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defence has furthermore claimed that there are currently seven Kalibr cruise missile-capable warships in the Black Sea, capable of launching up to 50 missiles, a notable increase on the three such warships reportedly at sea last week. This indicates the continuing threat of naval-launched cruise missile strikes against key targets this week, including against Odesa which continues to remain a key focus of Russian long-range strikes at present. However, other cities as well as key infrastructure points and perceived weapons depots will continue to be at risk across the full breadth of the country in the days ahead.
The regions of Luhansk, Kharkiv, and Dnipro reportedly came under air attacks on Tuesday morning. On 10 May, the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces stated that the possibility of missile strikes against both civilian and military infrastructure throughout Ukraine remains high. Serhiy Gaidai, the governor of Luhansk, said the region had been attacked 22 times over the last 24 hours.
According to an unnamed senior US defence official, the US has not seen any indications of a new major Russian mobilisation in Ukraine. Moreover, the official stated that Russia’s Wagner Group urgently requested hundreds of thousands more troops as part of their offensive efforts in Donbas. The latest request by the Wagner Group following Putin’s speech during yesterday’s Victory Day celebrations suggests that Russian offensive efforts in Ukraine are far from over. However, amid growing casualty rates and the decision not to order a general mobilisation, the call may indicate the Kremlin will rely upon ‘unconventional’ troops as a way to mitigate heavy casualties among regular Russian troops. Moreover, additional Wagner Group units on the ground may also help to compensate for ill-equipped, poorly trained Russian conscripts displaying low morale and discipline, while simultaneously helping the Kremlin to distance itself from additional losses. Lastly, the official noted that there were 97 Russian battalion tactical groups (BTGs) in Ukraine, four more compared to the previous week, suggesting that these have suffered substantial damage and casualties noting their movements in and out of Ukraine for refitting and resupplying units. An increase in Russian BTGs may indicate that additional offensive operations may be launched in the coming days.
Further doubts over the combat effectiveness Russian units continue, with reports indicating low morale among units in Zaporizhzhia in particular. Reportedly, Russian troops there are suffering from widespread abuse of alcohol and poor psychological conditions, with some units reportedly purposefully shooting at their own combat vehicles to avoid combat deployment, though this remains unconfirmed. With Putin’s Victory Day speech doubling down on the war, the Russian Army will need to mitigate enduring low morale amongst its ground forces in particular, if these claims are true. The deployment of increased number of relatively highly paid Wagner mercenaries could be one such tactic. However, the continued presence of poorly trained conscripts on the frontline, little offensive progress in recent weeks and enduringly high casualty rates mean the low efficiency and effectiveness of combat units will likely continue to undermine progress in the months ahead.
Russian forces did not achieve any notable territorial gains over the weekend of 7-8 May. However, the assault on Azovstal steel plant continued over the weekend, with Ukraine’s defence ministry reporting on 9 May that the Russian forces are currently carrying out “storming operations” against the plant. Meanwhile, remaining defence forces in the compound also reported on 8 May that all civilians have been evacuated from the plant, though fierce fighting continues following Russia’s inability to achieve a decisive “victory” in Mariupol ahead of 9 May. Additionally, bombardment of civilian infrastructure was also reported in Luhansk where a Russian aircraft reportedly dropped a bomb on a school in the village on Bilohorivka, with as many as 60 reportedly likely to have been killed.
Additionally, on 9 May, Ukraine’s military confirmed that four Onyx missiles struck Odesa region and were reportedly launched from Crimea. The development underlined the persistent pressure on Odesa and enduring risk of targeted strikes against infrastructure aimed at destroying Ukraine’s supply lines. Such strikes will also maintain psychological pressure on the population and the Ukrainian forces in the region. The Ministry of Internal Affairs has moreover warned that the risk of similar strikes will be heightened between 9 – 11 May, with the risk of provocations by the Russian forces following Victory Day likely also to remain heightened.
Lastly, Russian activity around Kharkiv has declined with the Ukrainian General Staff noting on 8 May that Moscow is “no longer conducting an active offensive in the Kharkiv direction.” Successful Ukrainian counteroffensives in recent weeks have pushed Russian forces eastward, with Moscow now reportedly prepared to commit additional forces from Belgorod region to prevent Ukrainian forces from reaching the international border between the two countries. Ukraine will maintain its counterattack with the aim of pushing Russian forces out of the artillery range of Kharkiv City. Ukraine claimed on 7 May that Russian forces destroyed bridges in Tsirkuny, Ruski and Tyshky in a bid to impede Kyiv’s attempt to push back Russian forces.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

Sweden is expected to announce its stance on a potential NATO membership on 15 May. The likelihood of Sweden joining the alliance has notably increased following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as the fast-tracking of these discussions in Finland. The latter is also set to announce in the coming days whether it will submit an application to join NATO. Russia has previously repeatedly warned both states against joining the alliance, with last week’s violation of Finland’s airspace by a Russian military aircraft reflective of this threat. As such, the risk of additional aerial incursions, as well as of cyber attacks will remain heightened, especially should the states decide in favour of the application.
On 8 May, US First Lady Jill Biden made an unannounced trip to Kyiv to meet with her Ukrainian counterpart Olena Zelenska. The visit symbolised the continued support of the US and marked Zelenska’s first public appearance since the invasion on 24 February. Other high-level officials such as Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau also visited Kyiv on 8 May and announced that Canada will impose new sanctions against Russia, as well provide further weapons and equipment to Ukraine. In line with our previous analysis, announcements for more military aid will continue to drive the threat of long-range strikes across Ukraine, with Russia likely to intensify its efforts to target critical infrastructure in a bid to destroy Ukraine’s supply lines in the days ahead.
Notably, the anticipated air shows during the Victory Day parade were cancelled across multiple parts of Russia, including in Moscow and St. Petersburg. The show was meant to feature 77 aircrafts flying over the capital in a “Z” formation, a symbol propagating support for the war in Ukraine. According to the Kremlin, the cancellation was due to weather conditions, though some reports questioned this explanation, noting that the weather conditions were relatively stable. Whilst the reason for the cancellation is highly uncertain and cannot be independently verified, it may well have been done to prevent potential acts of sabotage, though such a move especially from Kyiv would have been highly unlikely.
Lastly, a small number of minor anti-war protests were noted today, though, as anticipated, those taking part were quickly removed and the incidents did not gain broader traction. However, with activists largely unable to organise demonstrations due to swift crackdown by the security forces, those opposing the war have occasionally managed to express their opinion in other formats. These include production of anti-war graffiti and stunts at national media outlets, including today’s brief appearance of anti-war articles on a popular pro-regime news website Lenta.ru. Two staff members reportedly took the responsibility for the incident and have been fired given the heighted intolerance of criticism and regime’s control over the narrative regarding the war.

Economic/business environment developments

Following the expansion of UK sanctions against Russia, over the weekend Washington also announced a ban on American accounting the consulting firms from working with Moscow, as well as introduced sanctions against Gazprombank. Moreover, ahead of the 9 May Victory Day, US President Joe Biden along with other G-7 leaders spoke virtually with President Zelensky, pledging to phase out Russian oil, which still remains a contentious issue in the EU following Hungary blocking the proposed EU-level ban. The continued implementation of measures to punish Russia economically, will only reinforce Russia’s international isolation and exacerbate its economic decline, especially given the increasing measures targeting its main source of revenue.
Bulgarian Prime Minister Assen Vassilev stated yesterday, 8 May, that Bulgaria will not support the European Union’s putative sixth sanctions package on Russia if Bulgaria is not granted a derogation on a ban on Russian oil purchases. Whilst the Czech Republic, Hungary and Slovakia are believed to have been granted derogations on Russian oil purchases, allowing the EU-wide ban on Russian oil to move ahead with minor exceptions, the Bulgarian PM’s statement highlights the risk of more EU countries petitioning the European institutions for similar derogations, potentially watering down the impact a ban on Russian oil would have in practice.
On 9 May, Western media outlets reported that the descriptions of TV programmes displaying the Victory Day Parade in Russia were hacked and altered to display anti-war messages. While the threat actor responsible for this incident is currently unknown, such activity is consistent with pro-Ukraine hackers’ ongoing attempts to counter Moscow’s misinformation/disinformation campaigns. Most notably, hacktivist collective Anonymous’ subgroup NB65 claimed on 25 March via Twitter that it compromised the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK). Similarly, Anonymous also claimed earlier in the Ukraine conflict to have hacked several Russian television channels and replaced their programming with coverage of the Ukraine conflict by independent broadcasters Current Times and Dozhd TV. With pro-Kyiv hackers’ continued focus on combating Russia’s growing disinformation warfare unlikely to abate, there is a heightened risk of further such cyber attacks being launched in the coming days. While Western and Russian media outlets operating in Russia will remain the primary targets, such activity will likely remain rudimentary – DDoS or defacement – and present temporary disruptions to their business operations.
Lastly, European Council President Charles Michel visited Odesa on 9 May with President Zelensky, addressing the issue of “a food crisis” and calling for “immediate measures” to allow for wheat exports from the blocked Ukrainian ports. The statement follows last week’s reports that about 4.5m tons of grain are currently trapped at Ukraine’s ports because of Russia’s invasion, underlining the wider impact of the conflict and its role in driving global food insecurity. Moreover, with Ukrainian railway infrastructure increasingly becoming a target of attacks, transportation of grain via rail is also likely to become less secure.

FORECAST

Speaking at the Victory Day parade, President Vladimir Putin notably did not make any major announcements regarding the war in Ukraine, continuing to refer to it as a “special military operation” and claiming that the Russian forces were “fighting on their own land”, and falsely again calling Ukrainians “Nazis”. Additionally, instead of highlighting its “victories” in Ukraine to date, Putin instead focused on justifying the invasion. As anticipated, the war was portrayed as a broader conflict with the West, with Putin stating that Moscow’s actions in Ukraine were a pre-emptive move to deter western aggression, alleging that NATO forces were planning to attack Crimea. Muted celebrations were noted in some parts of the occupied territories, including Kherson, though Ukrainian media also indicate that the participants were brought in from the annexed Crimea in order to boost attendance. Notably, despite Russia’s increased focus on Mariupol last week, no major celebrations there were noted, though social media footage showed Donetsk People’s Republic leader, Denis Pushilin marking Victory Day in Mariupol. Despite the absence of any major new policy announcements from the Kremlin, there are currently no indications that Russia will scale back its operations, with the war set to continue in the weeks and highly likely months ahead. Additionally, Putin may well escalate the war this week despite not providing indications about the direction of the conflict. Moreover, Russia will likely seek to annex territories that it has managed to capture so far, with deputy chairman of the pro-Russian military-civilian administration Kiril Stremousov stating today “we will integrate as much as possible into the Russian Federation.” As such, Russian occupation forces in Kherson will likely announce some form of a referendum in the coming days to establish the region either as a part of the Russian Federation or to proclaim it a ‘People’s Republic’ in the style of those in Donetsk and Luhansk. Accordingly, renewed Russian efforts to push Ukrainian forces out of the entire region in the week ahead are increasingly likely.

KEY TAKEAWAYS

Pro-Russian cyber threat actors have continued to remain moderately active during this latest monitoring period. Their attacks appeared to be aimed at gaining an initial foothold in entities of interest for infrastructure and planning for future attacks/data exfiltration. Organisations either supporting the Ukrainian government’s operations – such as tech firms – and/or providing them with military or financial aid – such as Western government agencies – will likely remain the primary targets of these cyber attacks.
Pro-Ukraine hackers have continued to be highly active during this monitoring period, with groups linked to the hacktivist collective Anonymous predominately targeting Russian government agencies and their private sector partners. Despite Anonymous’ increased targeting of Russia’s black market dark web sites in recent weeks, such activity is unlikely to have a significant impact on cyber criminals’ ability to conduct cyber attacks against Western organisations. Nevertheless, further low-level hacktivist attacks, such as DDoS, defacement, or data leaks, are expected to emerge throughout the coming week in response to Moscow’s growing military/disinformation operations.

Pro-Russian operations maintain pace; Western government and diplomatic entities to remain high profile targets

On 7 May, Ukraine’s Computer Emergency Response Team (CERT-UA) warned that an unknown threat actor was attempting to distribute malware via phishing emails. These attacks use a lure that purports that the Russian military is planning on using chemical weapons in Ukraine to trick its victims into clicking on the hackers’ malicious excel documents. Once opened, the Jester Stealer malware is executed onto the targets’ devices, which allows the hackers to steal information such as account passwords, messages on email clients, instant messager apps, and cryptocurrency wallet details. Given that the Jester Stealer can be easily licensed online, there is a notable likelihood that this campaign is being orchestrated by a low-level cyber criminal looking to exploit the Ukraine conflict for financial gain and not an Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) group linked to the Russian government.
On 6 May, the CERT-UA also warned that Russian APT 28 (also known as Fancy Bear or Strontium) was targeting Ukraine-based organisations with phishing attacks. Emails are reportedly sent from previously compromised government employees’ emails and use lures related to current topics, such as Russia’s military operations or the threat of cyber attacks, to compromise their victims. The CERTA-UA did not disclose which specific sectors have been targeted during this campaign and its success rate, making it difficult to assess its overall impact.

Pro-Ukraine hackers continue data leak operations; Russia-linked state and private sectors entities remain vulnerable

On 9 May, Western media outlets reported that the descriptions of TV programmes displaying the Victory Day Parade in Russia were hacked and altered to display anti-war messages. While the threat actor responsible for this incident is currently unknown, such activity is consistent with pro-Ukraine hackers’ ongoing attempts to counter Moscow’s misinformation/disinformation campaigns. Most notably, hacktivist collective Anonymous’ subgroup NB65 claimed on 25 March via Twitter that it compromised the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company (VGTRK). Similarly, Anonymous also claimed earlier in the Ukraine conflict to have hacked several Russian television channels and replaced their programming with coverage of the Ukraine conflict by independent broadcasters Current Times and Dozhd TV.
On 8 May, V0g3lSec – a hacktivist group associated with the Anonymous collective – claimed that it had compromised a Russian black market dark web site. In addition to allegedly seizing the market’s domain, the group also posted a message encouraging visitors to use tools created by Squad303 – another group associated with Anonymous – to “send text messages from your phone directly to randomly selected Russians” to combat Moscow’s misinformation/ disinformation campaigns. Squad303’s representatives have previously claimed that the group’s mission is to break through Russia’s “barriers” and inform the Russian people of Moscow’s action in Ukraine. This is the second such campaign launched by V0g3lSec since they defaced another Russian black market’s dark web site with the same anti-Russia message on 4 May.
On 6 May, the whistleblower site Distributed Denial of Secrets (DDoSecrets) claimed that the Anonymous-linked group NB65 exfiltrated and leaked an estimated 480 GB of data from the Russian organisation CorpMSP. CorpMSP provides financial and business support to small and medium-sized businesses (SMEs) in Russia. NB65 alleged that they targeted this organisation because it operates as a front for digital espionage organised by Russian government agencies such as the Ministry of Defense. This incident follows NB65’s 28 April allegations that they exfiltrated 542 GB of emails and files from the Russian Petersburg Social Commercial Bank (PSCB JSC Bank) and released it via DDoSecrets (see Sibylline Weekly Ukraine Cyber Update – 3 May 2022).
On 5 May, DDoSecrets claimed that Anonymous leaked over 31,990 emails (or 20.2 GB) from the Russian accounting firm LLC Capital. There are limited details about what type of information was included in the data leak, making it difficult to assess the impact and scale of this incident. While unconfirmed, industry reports claimed that LLC Capital works alongside Russian bnaire Mikhail Gutseriev’s SAFMAR Group. As such, this alleged data leak appears to be consistent with pro-Ukraine hackers’ continued targeting of organisations and individuals critical to the Russian economy and/or with links to the Russian government.

FORECAST

Pro-Russian cyber threat actors have continued to launch a steady number of cyber attacks during this monitoring period. Such activities have largely constituted initial cyber attacks – such as phishing emails – aimed at gaining a foothold in a target of interests’ infrastructure. APT 28’s targeting of Ukraine-based organisations underscores Moscow’s continued focus on compromising organisations that could potentially have links to either the Ukrainian government and/or military. However, CERT-UA’s 7 May warning also highlights the latent threat of non-Moscow-linked cyber criminals exploiting the uncertainty surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict to engage in malicious cyber activity. While these attacks do not appear to be inherently linked to the Russian government, the unknown threat actors could either sell the stolen information or access their victims’ servers on dark web markets to interested parties, such as Russian state-linked actors. As such, entities that are either supporting and/or have direct contact with Ukrainian government agencies – such as tech firms or Western government agencies – will remain at the highest risk of being either directly targeted or indirectly impacted by this cyber activity.

Meanwhile, pro-Ukraine hackers, such as the IT Army of Ukraine and Anonymous, have continued to launch cyber operations aimed at expressing their political grievances with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and/or disrupting Moscow’s misinformation/disinformation operations. Anonymous and its affiliated groups have remained the most active groups in this conflict, with both Russian government agencies and their alleged private sector partners being compromised during this last monitoring period. While Anonymous’ targeting of Russian black markets does constitute a new trend, it is unlikely to have any immediate impact on Western business operations and/or the overall cyber threat landscape. Nevertheless, further pro-Kyiv campaigns are highly likely to be launched in the coming weeks as a part of these groups’ efforts to disrupt or halt Russia’s military operations in Ukraine and/or disinformation campaigns worldwide. Such activity is expected to be predominately rudimentary, such as data leaks, defacement, or DDoS, and remain targeted against entities supporting the Russian government and/or perceived to be involved in Moscow’s disinformation channels, such as Russian TV and media outlets. Such attacks will likely only have a minimal or temporary impact on their targets’ military or business operations. (Source: Sibylline)

16 May 22. Ukraine counter-attacks Russian forces in the east.

Summary
NATO chief says Russian offensive not going to plan
Russia’s Donbas campaign has lost momentum – British military
Finland confirms bid for NATO membership

RUSKA LOZOVA, Ukraine, May 16 (Reuters) – Russia attacked positions in eastern Ukraine as it tries to encircle Ukrainian forces in the Donbas and fend off a counteroffensive around the city of Izium.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said Russia’s offensive in Donbas had stalled and Ukraine could win the war, an outcome few military analysts predicted at the outset of the conflict.

“Russia’s war in Ukraine is not going as Moscow had planned,” Stoltenberg told reporters on Sunday.

In a strategic blow for Russia, which has long opposed NATO expansion, Finland on Sunday confirmed it would apply to join the Atlantic military alliance.

Sweden’s ruling Social Democrats also on Sunday backed NATO membership, paving the way for an application and abandoning decades of military nonalignment. read more

NATO and the United States said they were confident both countries would be accepted into the alliance and that reservations from Turkey, which wants the Nordic countries to halt support for Kurdish militant groups present on their territory, could be overcome.

Ukraine has scored a series of successes since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, reversing an advance on the capital Kyiv and driving Russian forces out of Kharkiv in the east.

Since mid-April, Russian forces have focused much of their firepower on trying to capture two eastern provinces known as the Donbas.

Moscow recognised the independence of the self-proclaimed Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic in the Donbas days before it launched its invasion of Ukraine.

British military intelligence said Russia had lost about a third of the ground combat force deployed in February, and its Donbas offensive had fallen “significantly behind schedule”.

As well as losing large numbers of men and much military equipment, Russia has been hit by economic sanctions, while Western states have provided Ukraine with military aid.

Ukraine has deployed many of its new U.S. M-777 howitzers at the front lines, and Washington has delivered all but one of the 90 artillery pieces they were due to send, the U.S. embassy in Kyiv said.

U.S. lawmakers are set to press ahead this week with efforts to send more aid.

Moscow calls its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation” to rid the country of fascists, an assertion Kyiv and its Western say is a baseless pretext for an unprovoked war.

FIGHTING AROUND IZIUM

Ukrainian troops received a morale boost from the country’s win in the Eurovision song contest on the weekend, with some saying it was a sign of battlefield victories to come.

“We have shown that we can not only fight, but we can also sing very nice,” said Vitaliy, a soldier bunkered down north of Kyiv. read more

The most intense fighting appeared to be around the eastern Russian-held city of Izium, where Russia said it had struck Ukrainian positions with missiles.

Ukraine’s Joint Forces Task Force said its troops had repelled 17 attacks on Sunday and destroyed 11 pieces of Russian equipment. The command of Ukraine’s air force said Ukrainian forces downed two helicopters, two cruise missiles, and seven drones. .

Russia continued to target civilian areas along the entire front line in the Luhansk and Donetsk regions, firing at 23 villages and towns, the task force added.

Reuters was not able to independently confirm the reports. Russia denies targeting civilians.

If Ukraine can sustain pressure on Izium and Russian supply lines, it will be harder for Moscow to encircle Ukrainian troops in the Donbas.

Ukraine’s military also acknowledged setbacks, saying Russian forces “continue to advance” in several areas in the Donbas region.

In western Ukraine near Poland, missiles destroyed military infrastructure overnight on Saturday and were fired at the Lviv region from the Black Sea, Ukrainian officials said. read more

Another 10 civilians were wounded in the southern region of Mykolaiv, the regional council said, without providing details.

There was also no letup on Sunday in Russia’s bombardment of the steelworks in the southern port of Mariupol, where a few hundred Ukrainian fighters are holding out weeks after the city fell into Russian hands, the Ukrainian military said.

Brightly burning munitions were shown cascading down on the steel works in a video posted by a pro-Russian separatist commander.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said “very difficult and delicate negotiations” were going on to save Ukrainians in Mariupol and Azovstal.

In port city, some residents ate and talked outside their burnt out apartment building, which was shelled and caught fire in early April.

“I was in the kitchen when the smoke appeared,” one resident named Natalya said. “I started carrying out my belongings, saving what I could.”

She said three neighbours had died in the fighting.

“We could not bury them because of the shelling. Each day we’ve been putting a person into a grave, but we could not cover it up with soil because of the shelling.” (Source: Reuters)

16 May 22. Ukrainian troops holding destroyed village believe Russians withdrawing across border.

While three of his men heaped dark soil into a chin-high berm to shield their trench, Ohor Obolenskiy gestured on Sunday across sun-dappled fields to a tree-clad ridge line sweeping the nearby horizon.

“We can see the Russian positions from here and say, ‘Fuck you, Russians,’” the 35-year-old Ukrainian commander joshed in rough English, his grim face creasing into a wide grin.

The amalgam of National Guard and volunteers he leads seized Ruska Lozova in fierce fighting on May 8, four days into a counteroffensive that has thwarted Russia’s bid to seize nearby Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second largest city.

The counter-offensive has been Ukraine’s most successful since it expelled Russian troops from the north of the country and the area around the capital Kyiv at the end of March, and signals a new turning point in the battle for the east.

For the first week, the troops in Ruska Lozova said, Russian shelling was so intense they only could move about the now-devastated village at night.

While they remain ever-alert to the high explosives regularly hurled by Russian artillery and tanks, Obolenskiy and his men made little effort to conceal themselves from the foe hunkered along the ridge line three kilometers away.

One reason, they said as Reuters toured their positions, was because the patchy cloud made it difficult for Russian drones to target their positions.

Another was because they believed the Russians, while trying to keep them pinned down, have been pulling their forces out in a withdrawal to their border. From there, they think, those troops are redeploying south to bolster a Russian drive to seize the entire Donbas region, which largely has stalled.

“There is less shelling from the Russians,” said Mikhayl, one of Obolenskiy’s lieutenants, giving only his nom de guerre as he sat in a basement ripe with the odor of the unbathed troops encamped in its gloom. “We think they are retreating.”

Yet, the troops holding the village, deserted by all but a few of its 5,000 residents and a horde of abandoned cats and dogs, are not ready to celebrate what some media outlets have begun hailing as their victory in the Battle of Kharkiv.

They still are fighting the Russians – they lost two soldiers on Saturday – whose helicopter gunships search for their positions in low-level runs to avoid the U.S.-made Stinger missiles with which Obolenskiy’s troops are armed.

Moreover, Obolenskiy and his aides said they remained concerned that despite high loses in men and equipment, Russian President Vladimir Putin could launch a new offensive against Kharkiv, 20 km south.

“We think it’s possible that the Russians will come back,” said Mikhayl, a large man who declined to reveal the contingent’s total casualties. “Putin will never forgive us. It will be difficult for him to explain to the Russian people why his special operation is over.”

Putin said that he launched what he called a special military operation on Feb. 24 to protect his nuclear-armed country from a threat posed by what he calls a fascist government in Kyiv. Kyiv and its foreign supporters call it an unprovoked war of aggression to subjugate Ukraine.

‘ALL THE WAY TO SIBERIA’

The Ukrainians bunkered in deserted homes, cellars and garages around Ruska Lozova have no doubt that the Russian forces arrayed around the Kharkiv region will retreat across the border. But they disagreed about comes next, with several saying they want to take the fight into Russia.

“I want to go all the way to Novosibirsk. The videos that I have seen of what they have done leave me no choice,” growled Mihkayl, referring to a city in Siberia, and to alleged war crimes committed by Russian forces against Ukrainians. Moscow denies targeting civilians.

Obolenskiy, however, said he is concerned that Russian forces will shell Ukrainian troops from inside their border in a deliberate ploy to trigger return barrages that would allow Putin to justify an escalation of the conflict to suck in NATO.

“Putin wants to start a war with NATO,” said Obolenskiy, who believes an escalation should be avoided by creating 10 km-wide buffer zones on either side of the border.

The fighting for Ruska Lozova devastated the village that sits in a fold cut by the Lozovenka River through rolling hills north of Kharkiv. A bridge across the river has been smashed into two fire-blackened halves.

The detritus of war litters fields and rutted lanes pitted by shell craters and lined by destroyed and damaged homes.

A Russian T-72 tank captured by the Ukrainians in working condition sat in the shadows of a carport, ready for use against its original owners.

A young officer, who gave only the first name of Klem, walked briskly through untended orchards, taking a visitor into abandoned Russian bunkers littered with molding rations and military gear.

When the Russians advanced to the outskirts of Kharkiv in February, he said, the village was a rear base.

“Now,” he said, “their frontline is in those trees, three kilometers away.” (Source: Reuters)

14 May 22. Daily Telegraph Ukraine Updates.

The leader of the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia has announced that a referendum will be held in July on joining Russia.

Russia has exercised effective control over the region since fighting a brief war with Georgia in 2008. Russia and a handful of other countries recognise South Ossetia as an independent state, but most of the world still considers it to be part of Georgia.

“We did it!” South Ossetian leader Anatoly Bibilov wrote on Telegram on Friday in announcing that he had signed a decree setting the referendum for July 17.

“In legalese, we fulfilled yet another important legal requirement,” he said. “And in normal language, we took a life-changing step – we are going home, we are going to Russia.”

About a month into Russia’s war with Ukraine, Mr Bibilov said South Ossetia would take the legal steps necessary to join Russia.

Kherson annexation moves closer – MoD

The Russian-imposed military-civilian administration in Ukraine’s Kherson region said it will ask Russia to include it in the Russian federation, the Ministry of Defence said on Saturday.

If Russia carries out an accession referendum in Kherson, it will almost certainly manipulate the results to show a clear majority in favour of leaving Ukraine, the MoD said.

Ukraine intelligence chief: war will be over by Christmas

The head of Ukraine’s military intelligence has claimed that the war will be over by Christmas and Vladimir Putin could soon be removed from power in a coup.

Major General Kyrylo Budanov has told Sky News that the war is going so well that it will reach a turning point by the middle of August.

Gen Budanov, who correctly predicted earlier this year that Russia would invade, also claimed that Putin is in a “very bad psychological and physical condition and he is very sick”.

He said the war would “lead to the change of leadership of the Russian Federation” and claimed the “process has already been launched and they are moving into that way”.

When asked if a coup was underway, he responded: “Yes. They are moving in this way and it is impossible to stop it.”

Deputy head of Duma visits Kherson – report

A senior Russian lawmaker has visited the Russian-occupied region of Kherson in Ukraine to discuss social and healthcare needs of the local population, according to the the state RIA news agency.

There have been sparse confirmed reports of Russian senior officials visiting areas of fighting since Russia invaded its neighbour on Feb 24.

Kherson is the first region set to be annexed after Moscow said in April it had gained full control of the region, which has seen sporadic anti-Russian protests.

Anna Kuznetsova, deputy head of Russia’s Duma or lower house of parliament, discussed the supply of food as well as medical and other products needed for children, RIA reported. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

14 May 22. Ukraine collects Russian dead as war rages on multiple fronts.

Summary
Hundreds of Russian war dead brought to rail yard
Ukraine deputy PM says war “entering new, long phase”
Ukraine military photographs show failed Russian river crossing
Kyiv says it’s negotiating for evacuation of Mariupol wounded

The bodies of Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine were brought to a rail yard outside Kyiv and stacked with hundreds of others in a refrigerated train, waiting for the time when they can sent back to their families.

“Most of them were brought from the Kyiv region, there are some from Chernihiv region and from some other regions too,” Volodymyr Lyamzin, the chief civil-military liaison officer, told Reuters on Friday as stretcher-bearers in white, head-to-toe protective suits lifted bodybags into the box cars.

He said refrigerated trains stationed in other regions across Ukraine were being used for the same grim purpose.

While there have been no reliable estimates of the scale of Russia’s losses, the scene filmed by Reuters provided a bitter taste of the price President Vladimir Putin is paying since ordering the invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24.

A day earlier, Ukraine’s military released aerial photographs of the burnt out and abandoned remnants of a Russian armoured column caught trying to cross a river in the Donbas region, which has become the main battleground.

Reuters could not verify the Ukrainian report, but the British defence ministry said a pontoon bridge and parts of an armoured battalion had been destroyed at the Siverskyi Donets River, while Russian forces were trying to break through defences elsewhere in the Donbas.

“We are entering a new, long phase of the war,” Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov said in a Facebook post, predicting “extremely tough weeks” when Ukraine would largely be alone against an “enraged aggressor”.

Making their fastest territorial gains since forcing the Russian invaders to abandon an advance on Kyiv over a month ago, Ukrainian forces have driven their enemies away from the second largest city, Kharkiv.

The northeastern city, which had been under fierce bombardment, has been quiet for at least two weeks. Reuters journalists have confirmed Ukraine controls territory stretching to the Siverskyi Donets River, around 40 km (25 miles) to the east.

However, Moscow is still bombarding nearby villages, including Dergachi, some 10 km (six miles) north of Kharkiv.

“I can’t call it anything but a terrorist act,” Dergachi Mayor Vyacheslav Zadorenko told Reuters after missiles struck a building used to distribute aid. read more

Russia, which denies targeting civilians, said its forces had hit an arms depot, shot down a Ukrainian Su-27 aircraft in the Kharkiv region and disabled the Kremenchuk oil refinery in central Ukraine.

Reuters could not independently verify the claims.

PRISONER SWAP OFFER

Putin’s most tangible success has been to capture a swath of territory along the southern coast to link the Crimean peninsula – which Russia seized in 2014 – with the southeastern regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, where Russian separatists have fought Ukrainian forces for years.

Even there, his forces were still trying to extinguish the last bastion of resistance at the Azovstal plant in the southern port city of Mariupol.

Many of those still in the steel works are members of the Azov Regiment. Deputy commander Sviatoslav Palamar said on Friday his forces would keep resisting as long as they could.

“Our enemy, supported by planes and artillery, continues to attack. They continue their assault on our positions but we continue to repel them,” he told an online forum streamed on YouTube.

Ukraine has proposed evacuating 38 of the most severely wounded defenders, offering to release a number of Russian prisoners of war in return. read more

“At the moment very complex negotiations are under way on the next phase of the evacuation mission – the removal of the badly wounded, medics,” President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said in a late night address.

Anna Kuznetsova, deputy head of Russia’s Duma or lower house of parliament, visited Kherson, offering assistance to residents of the small southern Ukrainian city seized in the first week of the invasion, state RIA news agency reported on Saturday.

There has also been renewed fighting around Snake Island, a strategically located islet controlling vital shipping lanes in the Black Sea.

The Kremlin calls its invasion of Ukraine a “special military operation” to demilitarise a neighbour threatening its security. Ukraine says it poses no threat to Russia and that the deaths of thousands of civilians and destruction of cities and towns show Russia is waging a war of aggression.

MORE MILITARY AID FOR UKRAINE

In their first conversation since the invasion, U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin spoke by telephone on Friday with Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, seeking an immediate ceasefire and stressing the importance of open lines of communication. read more

A day after Finland committed to applying to join NATO, Swedish Foreign Minister Ann Linde advocated membership for her country too, though NATO member Turkey has raised objections. read more

Joining the North Atlantic Treaty Alliance would end the neutrality the two states have maintained during the Cold War. Russian President Vladimir Putin said his invasion of Ukraine aimed to prevent has said one aim of the war was to prevent further expansion of the 30-nation Western military group.

Meeting in Germany, foreign ministers from the G7 group of rich nations backed giving Ukraine more aid and arms and the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell announced a further 500 m euros ($520 m) in military support that should be approved next week by EU members.

Borrell voiced confidence the bloc would agree an embargo on Russian oil, though Hungary is demanding compensation before committing. (Source: Reuters)

13 May 22. US poised to bite into Russia’s global defense market share.

A senior U.S. State Department official said Thursday that a massive Ukraine aid package ― which contains $4 bn in grants for allies to buy American-made military hardware ― is partly aimed at eroding Russia’s share of the global defense market.

“There is an opportunity here for us to work on helping other countries divest from Russian equipment moving forward,” Assistant Secretary of State for Political-Military Affairs Jessica Lewis told the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.

The U.S. should take advantage of the Russian invasion force’s poor performance against western-backed Ukrainian forces and Russia’s faltering defense supply chain, she said, to diminish Moscow’s influence abroad and increase America’s.

“It gives us an opportunity to also send that message around the world to our partners and allies and friends about Russia’s reliability as a defense partner,” Lewis said, adding: “There are long-term impacts, and frankly opportunities, that we need to seize right now.”

Washington is fostering three-way swaps, where Eastern European nations send Ukraine their Soviet-era kit in exchange for U.S.-made weapons, that should be used to “encourage partners to diversify their equipment inventories away from Russian systems,” Lewis said. But she also worried China could also have its eyes on Russia’s vulnerable market share.

“Priority systems for diversification could include, but are not limited to, legacy Russian fixed and rotary-wing aviation, air defense, armor and infantry fighting vehicles, and artillery systems,” she said in written testimony. “It is imperative that we provide affordable or subsidized U.S. solutions, not only to offramp partners from Russia, but also to ensure that any global military capability gaps that emerge are not filled by People’s Republic of China.”

Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter after the U.S., averaging more than $13 bn in reported annual sales, according to the Congressional Research Service. Russia exports a majority of its arms to five states: India ― the largest importer of Russian arms since 2016 ― followed by Algeria, China, Egypt and Vietnam.

But U.S.-led sanctions are straining Russia’s defense supply chain, even forcing it to use microchips from household appliances in some military equipment, U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo told lawmakers this week.

“We have reports from Ukrainians that when they find Russian military equipment on the ground, it’s filled with semiconductors that they took out of dishwashers and refrigerators,” Raimondo told Senate appropriators.

U.S. exports of technology to Russia have fallen by nearly 70 percent since sanctions were imposed in late February, after Russia invaded Ukraine, she said, adding that two Russian tank factories have shut, along with a number of auto makers.

After $650 m in State Department-controlled Foreign Military Financing was approved for Ukraine and other Eastern and Central European countries in the previous Ukraine-related aid package, the pending $40 bn package would add another $4 bn.

The proposed aid was approved overwhelmingly by the House and has strong bipartisan support in the Senate, but it has been delayed until next week by Kentucky Republican Sen. Rand Paul, who often opposes U.S. intervention abroad.

In Lewis’ written testimony, she pointed to Russia and China to make a pitch for “broader structural mechanisms [to] make U.S. arms transfers more competitive.” She argued for building defense exportability into platforms and technology early in the acquisition process, as well as flexible financing options for the purchasing country.

The panel’s chairman, Sen. Robert Menendez, R-N.J., has said he plans to spearhead legislation with the ranking Republican Sen. Jim Risch, of Idaho, to reform America’s globe-spanning security aid program.

“As with the future of NATO security cooperation, there may need to be changes to our authorities, and I think it will be vital to ensure that the Foreign Relations Committee and the State Department are on the leading edge of finding those solutions to ensure foreign policy remains in the driving seat of our security cooperation with, and assistance to, Taiwan,” Lewis said.

Following a New York Times report that Washington is urging Taiwan to order mobile, lethal weapons that would help its small military repel a seaborne invasion from China better than large weapons platforms, Lewis said it was important to deepen defense ties “in a manner that is commensurate with the threat we assess from the PRC.”

“[T]he United States supports and encourages Taiwan with its innovative and asymmetric security posture,” Lewis said. “Since the Biden-Harris Administration took office in January 2021, the State Department has approved several key capabilities to Taiwan, including enhanced air defense systems.” (Source: Defense News)

13 May 22. Pentagon Announces Deployments to Replace Forces in Europe.

Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby announced the deployment of U.S. troops to Europe to replace forces ordered there earlier this year.

Kirby said Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has ordered the deployment of around 10,500 personnel in the coming months to replace Army units ordered to the region in advance of, and in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Kirby stressed that these forces are not going to Ukraine, but are there to ensure the defense of NATO countries.

“These deployments are a one-for-one unit replacements, which leaves our overall force posture in the region – approximately 100,000 — unchanged,” he said at a Pentagon news conference. “The units being replaced will return to their home stations following a proper turnover of responsibilities.”

The 101st Airborne Division Headquarters, from Fort Campbell, Kentucky, will replace the 82nd Airborne Division Headquarters in the European Command area of responsibility. This will involve 500 soldiers.

Also from Fort Campbell, the 2nd Infantry Brigade Combat Team of the 101st Airborne Division will deploy approximately 4,200 soldiers to replace the 3rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team of Fort Bragg, North Carolina’s 82nd Airborne Division in Poland.

In addition, the 3rd Armored Brigade Combat Team of the 1st Cavalry Division, based at Fort Hood, Texas, will deploy approximately 4,200 soldiers to replace the 1st Armored Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division in Germany.

Finally, the 1st Armored Division Combat Aviation Brigade consisting of approximately 1,800 service members from Fort Bliss, Texas, will replace the 1st Air Cavalry Brigade to support the United States’ commitment to Atlantic Resolve.

These are not permanent moves, Kirby said. “They are moves designed to respond to the current security environment,” he said.

The Ukrainians continue to resist the Russian invaders in the Donbas region — Russia’s major push in the region now. “They have prevented the Russians from achieving virtually any of their strategic objectives thus far in the war,” Kirby said. “Now, both sides have taken casualties. Both sides have lost capabilities, whether that’s actual hardware or defensive systems. That’s why we’re trying so hard to make sure that Ukraine continues to have available to it, the materials, the systems, the weapons to continue to defend themselves.”

The Ukrainian military is holding its own against the Russian force. There are roughly 105 Russian battalion tactical groups in Ukraine today. But the Ukrainians “absolutely are mounting a stiff and an effective resistance to the Russians,” Kirby said.

Anecdotal evidence suggests the Russian military is having morale problems. A senior defense official speaking on background said there are reports of some Russian units refusing to go into battle. “They are not obeying orders or failing to fight as hard as ordered or expected,'” the official said.

This appears to have started with line soldiers, but has spread to the officer ranks, the official said. “I know it’s anecdotal, but it’s consistent with the kinds of unit cohesion and morale problems we’ve seen in the past,” the official said. (Source: US DoD)

13 May 22. Troops sent to bolster NATO begin turnover as US mulls larger footprint in Europe. The Pentagon is deploying 10,500 troops in the coming months to replace military units that were rapidly deployed to Europe to bolster NATO’s eastern edge after Russia invaded Ukraine in February.

“The deployments are one-for-one unit replacements, which will leave our overall force posture in the region — approximately 100,000 — unchanged,” Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told reporters Friday afternoon. “The units being replaced will return to their home station following an appropriate turnover of responsibilities.”

The turnovers are expected to continue through the summer months. Of note, the 101st Airborne Division headquarters, out of Fort Campbell, Kentucky, will replace the 82nd Airborne Division headquarters.

Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has ignited debate over how many U.S. troops should be permanently stationed in Europe and even whether new bases should be established. But Kirby had no update Friday on whether any of the additional troops dispatched to countries like Poland, Romania and Germany in recent months foreshadowed a permanent presence.

“The security environment has now changed based on what Mr. Putin has done,” Kirby said. “So, we expect that we’re going to have to take a look at the permanent footprint in Europe and make an assessment about that in the future, but there’s nothing in the offing right now.”

Prior to the Ukraine war, about 80,000 U.S. troops were in Europe, either on permanent bases or rotating through to train with NATO allies. Some countries, like Lithuania, have sought a more concrete U.S. military presence to beef up security after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

U.S. paratroopers from the 3rd Brigade Combat Team, 82nd Airborne Division, take part in mechanical breaching training with their Polish allies in southeastern Poland, March 3. (Sgt. Robin Lewis/DoD)

“My advice would be to create permanent bases, but don’t permanently station,” Army Gen. Mark Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the House Armed Services Committee in early April. “So, you get the effect of permanence by rotational forces cycling through permanent bases.”

“And I believe that a lot of our European allies … they are very, very willing to establish permanent bases,” Milley added. “They’ll build them, they’ll pay for them, etc.”

Although no decisions have been made on that front, the Pentagon appears prepared to continue maintaining the elevated troop presence that began when Fort Bragg-based paratroopers were flexed to Poland in February.

But, for now, those paratroopers will get to go home.

Kirby said the 101st Airborne Division’s 2nd Infantry Brigade will replace the 3rd Infantry Brigade from the 82nd Airborne Division. That turnover alone will involve about 4,200 soldiers.

Another 4,200 soldiers from 3rd Armored Brigade, 1st Cavalry Division, out of Fort Hood, Texas, will replace the 1st Armored Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, which is returning home to Fort Stewart, Georgia.

Finally, the 1st Armored Division Combat Aviation Brigade, which is stationed at Fort Bliss, Texas, will replace the 1st Air Cavalry Brigade to support the U.S. force commitment to Atlantic Resolve, a rotational presence that has been ongoing since fighting began in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region in 2014. (Source: Army Times)

13 May 22. Ukraine war has the Marine Corps revamping IED training. Marines may be learning whole new ways to fight in a new kind of littoral battlespace, against different adversaries such as the Chinese military, but an old foe still lurks on any likely future battlefield: improvised explosive devices.

While the knowledge and training to counter IEDs didn’t completely disappear, it did fade from prominence for future battle prep and widespread practice. But the threat continues to evolve.

During the Thursday panel on training and education at the 2022 Modern Day Marine Expo in Washington, Maj. Gen. Julian D. Alford, head of Training Command, was asked what lessons, if any, had been learned from the ongoing fight against the Russian invasion of Ukraine that could be applied to training now.

“No. 1 is we have to have counter-IED programs stood back up, period,” Alford said. “It’s criminal if we don’t train our Marines on counter-IED before they deploy.”

Alford noted that when the Russian forces pulled back from northern Kyiv, multiple Ukrainian civilians and soldiers were killed by IEDs left by the Russians.

“We’ve been preaching this for a long time ― that the IED works,” Alford said. “So, China’s going to use the IED, Russia’s using the IED, Iran, North Korea and, of course, extremists.”

The Marine Corps working to stand back up that training in 2022, Alford said.

In a roundtable with media members following the panel discussion, Alford noted that the Corps previously had a contractor with previous military experience that would scour public sourced and classified reports to keep up with how IEDs were being used across the globe.

Col. Gary McCullar, head of the Marine Corps Engineer School at Camp Lejeune, North Carolina, is reworking the program right now to better incorporate existing and evolving IED threats, such as those observed in Ukraine, he said.

“The one we stood down had a lot of route clearance, road stuff, so we started to revamp it, with (Lt. Gen. Kevin Iiams) and myself giving him guidance to get back in the jungle,” he said. “And Camp Lejeune is a great place for that because it is a nasty jungle.”

A Marine Corps explosive ordnance disposal technician builds an explosive charge during an EOD exercise in support of exercise Northern Viking 2022, on Keflavík Air Base, Iceland, April 10, 2022. (Mass Communication Specialist 1st Class Tyler Thompson/Navy)

And as technical-sounding as IED might be, especially some of the more sophisticated versions and emplacements used in recent wars, some of the training harkens back to a century of modern warfare or older.

“Booby traps, that’s essentially all an IED is,” Alford said.

The Marine Corps has four listed counter-IED courses offered at the Marine Corps Air Ground Combat Center at Twentynine Palms, California that cover understanding, recognizing, finding and seeing the IED threat in the “big picture,” according to the center’s website.

A 2018 Marine Corps Order establishes counter-IED training requirements at the service level.

“All Marine units will train to operate in environments with an IED threat,” according to MCO 3502.10.

The order also requires all leaders to be familiar with the underlying tenets of IED warfare and how adversaries will employ them. And all forms of Marine air-ground task forces will establish mission essential task lists for operating environments with IEDs.

Counter-IED training was prevalent across the Corps, through schools, predeployment training, Marine expeditionary unit training cycles and even through mobile training teams going to units at home station, he said. The Marines want to get back to that type of training.

“It’s a requirement in all of your (Geographic Combatant Commands) that you go through IED training,” Alford said. “So, it’s incumbent upon us to figure out how to do that for the Corps, because it’s not going away. And this war in Ukraine is just proof of what we already knew.” (Source: Defense News)

13 May 22. Ukraine enters ‘new, long phase’ of war, says defence minister.

Ukraine’s defence minister said his country was entering a “new, long phase” of war with Russia that will require careful planning and use of resources to secure victory.

Oleksii Reznikov on Friday said government forces had thwarted attempts to capture the capital city Kyiv and secure a swift victory in the far eastern Donbas and southern regions.

“We forced Russia to reduce the scale of its objectives to the operational and tactical level . . . we are entering a new, long phase of the war,” Reznikov wrote in the Facebook post.

“To win it, we must plan resources carefully, avoid mistakes and project our strength in such a way that the enemy ultimately breaks,” he added.

Pointing to Russia’s advantage with a larger army and stockpiles of weaponry, Reznikov said Kyiv had in recent weeks succeeded in persuading western backers to supply modern Nato-standard weaponry to replace existing Soviet stockpiles that stand to “quickly deplete during high-intensity warfare”.

“Eventually, a tectonic shift took place . . . We are already receiving heavy weaponry from our partners. In particular, American 155-mm M777 howitzers are already working at the front lines,” Reznikov said.

He also praised the planned disbursement by the US of $40bn in additional support.

“This is the exact form of assistance that helped defeat Hitler in World War II . . . The world got the chance to overcome dictatorship which constitutes a global threat,” Reznikov said.

Reznikov said more than 1,500 Ukrainian soldiers were abroad, training to use newly supplied equipment. Heavy weaponry and deepening of sanctions against Russia “will balance the scales and ensure a breakthrough in favour of Ukraine”.

“Extremely tough weeks are ahead. No one can say for sure how many of them there will be,” Reznikov cautioned while adding: “In the long run, these trends will make Russia’s defeat inevitable.” (Source: FT.com)

13 May 22. US holds first talks with Russian defence minister since war began. Secretary Lloyd Austin calls for ‘immediate ceasefire’ in call with Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu. US defence secretary Lloyd Austin called for an “immediate ceasefire” in Ukraine during his first phone call with his Russian counterpart Sergei Shoigu since the war began nearly three months ago, as western allies ramped up direct talks with Moscow. Austin’s conversation with Shoigu came as German chancellor Olaf Scholz spoke with Vladimir Putin and urged the Russian president to work towards a ceasefire in Ukraine, improve the humanitarian situation and make progress towards a diplomatic solution to end the conflict. The call between Austin and Shoigu was notable because it was the first since February 18, six days before Russian forces launched their attack on Ukraine, and could help ease fears that the war will spill over into a broader fight between Nato and Russia. Contact between top US and Russian defence and military officials is considered crucial to prevent any misunderstandings or accidental escalation between the two nuclear-armed powers. “Secretary Austin urged an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and emphasised the importance of maintaining lines of communication,” Pentagon spokesperson John Kirby said in a statement on Friday. Recommended The Weekend Essay What the CIA thinks: William Burns on the new world disorder The conversation took place as Russia is struggling to make progress in its effort to gain full control of the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, where it has concentrated its forces and firepower after failing in its initial goals of capturing Kyiv and toppling the government. Scholz’s spokesman, Steffen Hebestreit, said the German chancellor had urged Putin to work towards a ceasefire in Ukraine as soon as possible, in view of the seriousness of the military situation and the consequences of the war, especially in the besieged city of Mariupol. Hebestreit said Scholz also “rejected the accusation that Nazism is widespread in Ukraine”. He said the two also spoke about the global food situation, which has become particularly tense as a result of the Russian war on Ukraine. Scholz “reminded [Putin] that Russia bears a special responsibility” in the matter. Scholz later wrote on Twitter that he had made three points in his conversation with Putin: “There must be a ceasefire in Ukraine as soon as possible. The claim that Nazis are in power there is wrong. And I pointed out Russia’s responsibility for the global food situation.” (Source: FT.com)

13 May 22. Turkey’s Erdoğan deals blow to Sweden and Finland’s Nato hopes.

Laura Pitel in Ankara and Richard Milne in Stockholm

Turkey’s president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has come out against allowing Sweden and Finland to join Nato, striking a blow to the two Nordic countries’ hopes of joining the western military alliance.

Erdoğan, whose country has been a Nato member since 1952, said that he could not take a “positive view” of the two nations’ bids for membership because of what he said was their support for terrorists — a reference to members of the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK), which is classified as a terrorist organisation by Turkey, the US and EU.

“Scandinavian countries are like some kind of guest house for terrorist organisations,” Erdoğan told reporters, referring to the Nordic countries. “They are even in parliament.”

He added: “At this point it’s not possible for us to look positively at this.”

Some Swedish officials and MPs have long worried that Turkey could pose the most dangerous opposition to their potential Nato bid, which requires unanimous support from all 30 members.

“There are a lot of Kurds in Sweden, there are a lot of MPs with Kurdish background, Sweden has been active on the Kurdish issue — I’m afraid there could be a backlash,” one senior Swedish official said this month.

Finnish and Swedish diplomats have been crossing Europe and the Atlantic to gain favour with Nato members, whose ratification is necessary for them to become members.

Nato officials have said that they expect both Finland and Sweden to become formal invitees within “a couple of weeks” but that it could take six to 12 months for all 30 existing members to ratify their applications. (Source: FT.com)

13 May 22. EU to provide new 500m euro military aid to Ukraine, Borrell says. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Friday the bloc would provide a further €500m worth of military support to Ukraine and that he was confident a deal could be reached in the coming days to agree an embargo on Russian oil.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the G7 foreign ministers meeting in northern Germany, Borrell said the military support would be for heavy weapons such as tanks and artillery and take the bloc’s aid to about €2bn.

“A new impetus for military support. (It will be) more pressure on Russia with economic sanctions and continuing the international isolation of Russia and countering misinformation,” he said

Borrell said he was also optimistic an EU embargo on Russian oil could also be agreed in the coming days.

“I am sure we will have an agreement. We need it and we will have it. We have to get rid of the oil dependency from Russia,” he said.

“If there is no agreement at the level of ambassadors, then on Monday the ministers when they gather they have to provide the political impetus.” (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)

13 May 22. British Army on manoeuvres in North Macedonia.

More than 2,000 members of the British Army’s Global Response Force have demonstrated their ability to react to global crises during an exercise with NATO allies.

Some 3,000 personnel from eight NATO countries are training together in North Macedonia on Exercise Swift Response, under the command of 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team (BCT).

The UK contingent is made up of the 2 PARA Battlegroup, built around the airborne infantry of 2nd Battalion The Parachute Regiment. They have been supported by artillery, engineers, logisticians, medics, and signallers from 16 Air Assault BCT; and Aviation Task Force 1 with Apache attack helicopters and Chinook support helicopters.

Minister for the Armed Forces James Heappey MP said: “Exercise Swift Response shows how the British Army is transforming to become more lethal, agile, and expeditionary. Exercises alongside our partners and Allies are necessary to maintain our advantage in a complex and ever-changing world.”

I remain proud of our Armed Forces who continue to serve their country on postings around the world, providing leadership in uncertain times.

Travelling by road, rail, sea and air to North Macedonia – NATO’s newest member since joining in 2020 – troops carried out joint training to build their capabilities and relationships. The soldiers then deployed onto the rugged Krivolak training range by parachute and helicopter to secure and defend a foothold in simulated hostile territory, and then take the offensive.

Commander of 16 Air Assault BCT Brigadier Nick Cowley said:

“On Exercise Swift Response, 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team, alongside multiple Army and RAF units, has truly demonstrated the lethality, agility and expeditionary capabilities of the Global Response Force. We have deployed thousands of miles across Europe to link up with our NATO allies to conduct arduous training in a challenging environment to make sure that we are ready to deploy on the most demanding missions, at short notice.”

I have been hugely impressed by the quality of our soldiers and their ability to integrate with NATO allies. This exercise has absolutely showed me that we are ready for anything.

The manoeuvres in North Macedonia are one element of Exercise Swift Response, which will see multinational forces under the direction of US Army Europe and Africa conducting simultaneous training across Europe – from the High North to the Balkans – to practice how airborne units can rapidly project force in response to developing crises. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

13 May 22. Defence Secretary meets US counterpart to discuss support for Ukraine.

The Defence Secretary discussed next steps to help Ukraine defend itself against the Russian invasion during high-level talks in the US this week.

Ben Wallace met his US counterpart, Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, at the Pentagon in Washington DC on Wednesday. They spoke about joint UK-US efforts to support Ukraine, including through supply of military aid and the coordination and delivery of donations from other partners.

They also discussed the ongoing drive to ensure NATO can deter and defend against any Russian aggression towards allies in Eastern Europe and looked ahead to the upcoming NATO Summit in Madrid in June.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said: “It was extremely good to meet again with my good friend and NATO partner, Lloyd Austin. The US and UK relationship is as strong as ever. We will continue to work with unity and resolve to provide Ukraine with what it needs to defend itself against Russia’s unprovoked invasion. We discussed the next steps to provide defensive support for Ukraine, as well as AUKUS, the future of NATO, and other aspects of our shared security.”

The UK and US have been at the forefront of international efforts to support the Ukrainian government and armed forces as they defend themselves from the unprovoked attack by Putin’s forces. The US has supplied around £3bn of military aid to Ukraine since the war began, while the UK has just confirmed £1.3bn in extra funding for military operations and aid to the country – on top of the existing £1.5bn of UK support including humanitarian aid and grants, as well as military kit such as armoured vehicles, anti-tank missiles and air defence systems.

Both countries have also taken leading roles in organising international donations of military equipment. The Defence Secretary has hosted two international donor conferences to coordinate military aid from 35 partner nations, while RAF aircraft have moved thousands of tonnes of military assistance from donors around the world to Ukraine.

In the three-day visit to the US, the Defence Secretary carried out a series of engagements with senior politicians and defence and intelligence officials, all aimed at reinforcing this close trans-Atlantic co-operation in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as well as discussing wider defence issues.

Engagements included bilateral meetings with Commander of US Cyber Command and Director of the National Security Agency General Paul M. Nakasone, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley, as well as meetings at the Central Intelligence Agency headquarters in Langley and the Defence Intelligence Agency headquarters in Washington.

He also represented the UK at the Munich Leaders Meeting, discussing pressing security challenges with allies and partners on both sides of the Atlantic. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

13 May 22. Ukraine says it damaged Russian ship, seeks evacuation of wounded Mariupol fighters.

Summary
Ukraine says it damaged Russian supply ship in Black Sea
Relatives of Mariupol fighters plead for rescue
Finland wants security after Russian invasion of Ukraine
Sweden expected to follow suit in bid to join alliance

Ukraine said it had damaged a Russian navy logistics ship near Snake Island, a small but strategic outpost in the Black Sea, while relatives of Ukrainian soldiers holed up in Mariupol’s besieged steelworks pleaded for them to be saved.

Renewed fighting around Snake Island in recent days may become a battle for control of the western Black Sea coast, according to some defence officials, as Russian forces struggle to make headway in Ukraine’s north and east.

“Thanks to the actions of our naval seamen, the support vessel Vsevolod Bobrov caught fire – it is one of the newest in the Russian fleet,” said Serhiy Bratchuk, a spokesman for the Odesa regional military administration.

Reuters could not independently verify the details. Russia’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Satellite imagery provided by Maxar, a private U.S.-based company, showed the aftermath of what it said were probable missile attacks on a Russian Serna-class landing craft near the island, close to Ukraine’s sea border with Romania.

Images also showed recent damage to buildings on the island, which became famous for the foul-mouthed defiance of its Ukrainian defenders early in the invasion. read more

Russia faced further setbacks on the battlefield as Ukraine drove its troops out of the region around the second-largest city Kharkiv, the fastest advance since forcing the Kremlin’s forces from Kyiv and the northeast over a month ago.

Reuters journalists have confirmed Ukraine is now in control of territory stretching to the banks of the Siverskiy Donets River, around 40 km (25 miles) east of Kharkiv.

Footage released by Ukrainian Airborne Forces Command appeared to show several burnt out military vehicles and a segments of a bridge seemingly destroyed and partially submerged in the river.

Regional authorities reported ongoing missile strikes around Poltava and shelling at Dergach, near Kharkiv, which killed two people.

In the capital Kyiv, wives and relatives of Ukrainian fighters holed up in the Azovstal steel plant in the southern port of Mariupol marched and chanted for their rescue. Russian forces have been bombarding the steelworks, the last bastion of Ukrainian defenders in a city almost completely controlled by Russia after a siege of more than two months.

“I want all the defenders who are there to return home so that they can live a normal life with their children and relatives,” said Maria Zimareva, whose brother is inside the steelworks. “They have earned it. Why the others can walk in the streets with their loved ones and they cannot? Why nobody helps them?”

Kyiv said it was working on a rescue of the servicemen, many badly injured.

“We have started a new round of negotiations around a road map for an (evacuation) operation. And we will start with those who are badly wounded,” Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk told 1+1 television.

NATO EXPANSION

As fighting continued around the country, wider diplomatic moves dialled up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Finland’s plan to apply for NATO membership, announced on Thursday, and the expectation that Sweden will follow, would bring about the expansion of the Western military alliance that Putin aimed to prevent.

Abandoning the neutrality they maintained throughout the Cold War would be one of the biggest shifts in European security in decades.

Moscow called Finland’s announcement hostile and threatened retaliation, including unspecified “military-technical” measures.

“Helsinki must be aware of the responsibility and consequences of such a move,” said the foreign ministry.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the Finns would be “warmly welcomed” and promised a “smooth and swift” accession process. read more

The White House backed such a move.

“We would support a NATO application by Finland and-or Sweden should they apply,” said press secretary Jen Psaki.

Finland’s 1,300-km (800-mile) border will more than double the length of the frontier between the U.S.-led alliance and Russia, putting NATO guards a few hours’ drive from the northern outskirts of St Petersburg.

Putin cited NATO’s potential expansion as one of the main reasons he launched what he called a “special military operation” in Ukraine in February.

Thursday also saw an intensification of disputes over Russian supplies of energy to Europe – still Moscow’s biggest source of funds and Europe’s biggest source of heat and power.

Moscow said it would halt gas flows to Germany through the main pipeline over Poland, while Kyiv said it would not reopen a pipeline route it shut this week unless it regains control of areas from pro-Russian fighters. Prices for gas in Europe surged. (Source: Reuters)

13 May 22. Turkey and Kazakhstan to Jointly Produce Anka UAVs. Turkish Aerospace Industries signed a new cooperation with Kazakhstan, with which ANKA Unmanned Aerial Vehicle signed an export agreement last year. With the memorandum of understanding signed between Turkish Aerospace Industries and Kazakhstan Engineering Company, ANKA Unmanned Aerial Vehicle will be produced jointly in Kazakhstan.

In addition to joint production, cooperation will be made on technology transfer issues including maintenance and repair processes.

ANKA Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, which has signed an export agreement with Kazakhstan, paved the way for production in Kazakhstan. In Kazakhstan, which will become the first production base of ANKA Unmanned Aerial Vehicle outside of Turkey, an important step has been taken towards training human resources in this field and improving Kazakhstan’s UAV production capability.

Sharing his thoughts on the memorandum of understanding, Turkish Aerospace Industries General Manager Prof. Dr. Temel Kotil said,

“We are very excited to sign a new production base for our ANKA. We are proud that ANKA, which we have developed with domestic and national resources, is so popular abroad. Thanks to this agreement, which will contribute to the defense and aviation industry of the region, we will contribute to the strengthening of our commercial and friendship ties with the friendly and brotherly country Kazakhstan. I hope our cooperation will be beneficial.”

Under the new agreement signed between TAI and Kazakhstan Engineering Company, cooperation will be carried out on technology transfer issues, including maintenance and repair processes as well as production. Thus, Kazakhstan became Ankara’s first production partner outside Turkey. (Source: UAS VISION)

12 May 22. Here’s what US Army leaders are learning from the Russia-Ukraine war. Top Army officials told House lawmakers Thursday that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has vindicated many of their technological modernization priorities.

“Long-range precision fires are extremely important,” said Army Chief of Staff Gen. James McConville, indirectly referencing Ukraine’s ability to translate battlefield intelligence into high-impact strikes on key Russian leaders and equipment. “We’re seeing the value of that…the ability to sink ships, the ability to hit command posts.”

Ukrainian forces have killed at least 12 Russian generals since the war’s onset, and the New York Times reported that U.S. officials have provided real-time intelligence on their locations to Ukraine. The Pentagon has denied that report.

McConville also pointed to drones — both military and modified commercial off-the-shelf units — and “anti-drone capability” as key assets whose importance has been on display in the war. Many videos have emerged from both sides in the conflict that show drones coordinating fires, too.

“It’s really about speed, range and convergence — bringing all those systems together,” said McConville. “Doing combined arms as a joint force coming together would give you the capabilities that you need to be very, very effective [like] what’s happening in Ukraine.”

Army Secretary Christine Wormuth added that the service is “investing” in counter-drone technology.

Both leaders also pointed to lessons about the importance of joint training exercises that offer partner countries experience in large-scale maneuvers.

“About 75% of [Ukraine’s] brigades have been through” large-scale U.S.-led training exercises, said McConville. “The more we can do to build the capacities and capabilities of our allies and partners — or just friends — is really important.”

Beyond tech and strategy, the chief of staff noted important tactical lessons — such as Russia’s apparent failure to effectively integrate armor and infantry at the tactical level, which has left their vehicles vulnerable to portable anti-tank systems like the Javelin and NLAW.

“We have the best tanks and armored personnel carriers…but to me, it’s also how you employ them,” McConville said. He added that the Army is also working to field active protective systems on its vehicles.

“I think we’re in a much better position [than Russia],” McConville said. (Source: Army Times)

12 May 22. British troops ‘ready to go and fight’ against Russia, says head of elite unit. Brigadier Nick Cowley, Commander of 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team, admitted ‘very present’ threat of conflict spreading. British troops are “ready to go and fight” Russia in a “lethal” way if called upon, the head of an elite unit has said.

Brigadier Nick Cowley, Commander of 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team, admitted his soldiers bore a “huge responsibility to make sure we are ready because we may need to go and fight for our freedom”.

“It’s very present and I think it’s something we need to keep reminding ourselves about,” he said.

In an interview with The Telegraph from North Macedonia, where Brig Cowley’s troops are leading the Nato Exercise Swift Response, he warned that the war in Ukraine represented the absence of “freedom”, which he said the West had “taken for granted” in recent years.

“We have assumed the international order would remain or even that liberal democracy would spread,” he said. “I think that is being threatened and that is really focusing our minds.”

As part of the exercise 3,000 personnel from eight different nations, including 2,000 British troops from the 16 Air Assault Brigade Combat Team, predominantly built around the 2 Para Battlegroup, will work together on North Macedonia’s rugged Krivolak training range to secure and defend a foothold in the simulated hostile territory, and then take the offensive. It is the first time such a mass joint exercise has been conducted in North Macedonia, which joined Nato in June 2020.

In the face of the conflict spreading out across Europe, Brig Cowley set out that he was currently ensuring he “can offer the Government options, with 16 Brigade, and other defence options”.

He said his priorities were “showing we are agile, showing that we are ready to go and fight, we can be lethal and responsive, which means that as and when discussions are going on at Nato, or in UK defence or in the Government, I’m giving them as many tools as they’ve got should they wish to change their policy.”

Brig Cowley added that “as long as I keep doing that to the best of my ability, I hope that if we do get tasked to do anything, be that in Europe or outside of Europe, I can deliver mission success on behalf of the Government.”

16 Brigade were last year involved in the operation to evacuate British nationals and Afghan allies from Kabul after the Taliban seized control. The next deployment may be closer to home.

Brig Cowley said: “Ever since we came out of Iraq and Afghanistan we viewed Russia as a pacing threat. We wanted, alongside our Nato allies, to make sure that we are ready to operate if required in a Nato context in Europe. I think this exercise has got more focus because of what’s happening in Ukraine.”

While Brig Cowley stressed the multi-nation exercise had long been planned before the Russian invasion of Ukraine on February 24, the message that the Kremlin will take from it is one of “Nato unity”.

“I hope that that would show any adversary that we really can come together in a really complex environment, set up something that is credible and then go off and do operations,” he said.

While there is no intention to put British boots on the ground in Ukraine, if Russia were to press beyond Ukraine into a Nato territory, Article 5 of Nato’s constitution states that “an attack against one ally is considered an attack against all allies.”

‘Readiness is an obsession’

Asked if Brig Cowley’s troops would be ready to fight the Russians in such an instance, he said: “Absolutely. 16 Air Assault Brigade is all about readiness. Our soldiers are physically very fit, mentally strong, their bergens are packed, they are fully jabbed up, their weapons are zeroed and that is 24/7.”

He added: “For me readiness is an obsession and everyone is focused on it. This, as Nato readiness, would be my number one message.”

Lieutenant Colonel David Middleton, 2 Para’s Commanding Officer, added that exercise Swift Response was “the largest and most significant exercise we have done, based on the current situation which you can’t ignore”.

“It’s a timely activity based on what’s going on,” he said. “We are reassuring our partners and focusing on the Nato solidarity aspect, which is a by-product of the Russia situation. Nato has never been more important and never been more relevant for the security of Europe.”

Major Drew Houston, 7 Para’s G Battery Commander, added that due to the war in Ukraine Nato was in a “better place”. “The threat has been brought into sharp focus which focused the mind that this is a tangible threat,” he said. “We are training against an enemy that is understood, so it reinforces our tactics.”

Lieutenant Colonel Alex Harris, of 4 Regiment Army Air Corps, reiterated the war in Ukraine had brought into “the front of our focus the relevance of Nato and the relevance to our soldiers that we could be in a conflict in a very short period of time”.

“On Monday, you could go to work as normal, by Saturday, you could be in a different country in a very different environment,” he said.

“Nobody is wishing for war. But you have to be prepared for it. And that is very much in everyone’s minds.” (Source: Daily Telegraph)

12 May 22. Russia threatens to retaliate as Finland seeks to join NATO.

Summary
Companies
Finland wants security after Russian invasion of Ukraine
Sweden expected to follow suit in bid to join alliance
Ukraine forces aim to cut Russian battlefield supply lines

Finland said on Thursday it would apply to join NATO “without delay”, with Sweden expected to follow, as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine looked set to bring about the very expansion of the Western military alliance that Vladimir Putin aimed to prevent.

The decision by the two Nordic countries to abandon the neutrality they maintained throughout the Cold War would be one of the biggest shifts in European security in decades. Moscow called Finland’s announcement a direct threat to Russia, and threatened retaliation, including unspecified “military-technical” measures.

It came even as Russia’s war in Ukraine was suffering another big setback, with Ukrainian forces driving Russian troops out of the region around the second largest city Kharkiv, the fastest Ukrainian advance since forcing Russia to withdraw from the capital and northeast more than a month ago.

In Geneva, the U.N. Human Rights Council passed a resolution to set up an investigation into possible war crimes by Russian troops in the Kyiv area and beyond before they were driven out at the end of March, a move that Russia said amounted to political score-settling. [nL5N2X43LS]

U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Michelle Bachelet said there were many examples of possible war crimes, including unlawful killings and summary executions. read more

Moscow denies deliberately attacking civilians.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said the Finns would be “warmly welcomed” and promised a “smooth and swift” accession process. French President Emmanuel Macron said he fully supported Finland’s choice to join the alliance. read more

“Finland must apply for NATO membership without delay,” President Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin said in a joint statement.

Asked whether Finland’s accession posed a direct threat to Russia, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said: “Definitely. NATO expansion does not make our continent more stable and secure.

“This cannot fail to arouse our regret, and is a reason for corresponding symmetrical responses on our side,” Peskov added.

Russia’s foreign ministry said Moscow would be forced to take “retaliatory steps, both of a military-technical and other nature”, giving no further details. Russian officials have spoken in the past about potential measures including stationing nuclear-armed missiles on the Baltic Sea.

‘YOU CAUSED THIS’

Asked on Wednesday if Finland would provoke Russia by joining NATO, Niinisto said: “My response would be that you caused this. Look at the mirror.”

Five diplomats and officials told Reuters that NATO allies expect both countries to be granted membership quickly, paving the way for an increased troop presence in the Nordic region to defend them during a one-year ratification period.

Putin, Russia’s president, cited NATO’s potential expansion as one of the main reasons he launched a “special military operation” in Ukraine in February.

NATO describes itself as a defensive alliance, built around a treaty declaring that an attack on one member is an attack on all, granting U.S. allies the protection of Washington’s superpower might including its nuclear arsenal.

Moscow regards that as a threat to its security. But Putin’s decision to invade Ukraine has changed Nordic public opinion, with many now embracing the view that Russia is a menace.

Finland in particular has centuries of uneasy history in Russia’s shadow.

Thursday also saw an intensification of disputes over Russian supplies of energy to Europe – still Moscow’s biggest source of funds and Europe’s biggest source of heat and power.

COST OF THE WAR

Ukraine has spent 245.1bn hryvnia ($8.3bn) on fighting the Russian invasion, the finance minister said on Thursday, providing a glimpse into the scale of the spending on everything from buying and repairing weapons to emergency support for internally displaced people.

On the front lines, Ukraine has mounted a counter-offensive in recent days, ousting Russian forces from villages north and east of Kharkiv they had held since the start of the invasion.

Reuters journalists have confirmed that Ukraine is now in control of territory stretching to the banks of the Siverskiy Donets River, around 40 km (25 miles) east of Kharkiv. To the north, the Ukrainians have been pushing towards the Russian border. In the latest advance, they announced on Wednesday the recapture of the village of Pytomnyk, halfway to the frontier. Ukraine’s general staff said the Russians were regrouping to prevent further Ukrainian advances near Kharkiv. Russia’s retreat has begun to make it possible for some residents to return to recaptured villages around Kharkiv. But areas remain littered with mines and booby traps. The invasion has displaced more than 8 m people within Ukraine and the number of refugees who have fled the country now exceeds 6m, U.N. data showed. (Source: Reuters)

11 May 22. U.S.-U.K. Leaders Discuss Aid to Ukraine, NATO Issues During Pentagon Meeting. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III continued DOD’s close cooperation with the United Kingdom as he sat down for Pentagon talks with the UK’s Secretary of State for Defense Ben Wallace today. The United States and United Kingdom have been in lockstep supporting Ukraine in its fight against the Russian invaders, and Austin thanked his British counterpart for his leadership and support.

“The US-UK relationship is strong and even more viable after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Austin said at the beginning of the meeting. “The United States and United Kingdom stand firmly in solidarity with Ukraine’s armed forces and its people. The world is in awe of their courage. And I’m proud to be working with you to help Ukraine defend their democracy.”

Ukraine stopped Russia cold in its attempt to take the capital city of Kyiv. But the struggle has entered a new phase with Russia attacking the eastern and southern areas of Ukraine. “Russia’s invasion has entered a different phase that is no less dangerous,” Austin said. “But we will continue to work together with unity and resolve to rush Ukraine what it needs to defend itself now, and in future.”

Austin praised the United Kingdom for stepping up for Ukraine and standing up in opposing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked war. “Your country is a leader among allies and partners in providing security aid to Ukraine,” Austin said.

The United Kingdom has sent weapons and supplies to the embattled Ukrainians, and they are working with others to encourage donations and facilitate deliveries of security assistance to Ukraine, through the UK-led International Deconfliction Coordination Center, the secretary said. “All of this has made a real difference on the battlefield,” he said.

Wallace thanked Austin for his leadership of the effort to aid Ukraine and for America’s steadfast support and commitment to NATO allies. “Words and deeds matter,” he said. “Deeds matter more often than words.”

He said the United States has demonstrated through deeds that “they stand by their allies,” he said.

The British minister noted that the United States has been supplying Ukraine with training assistance and materials since Russia invaded the first time in 2014 when Putin illegally annexed Crimea and incited violence in the eastern provinces of Ukraine. “Because of that, Ukraine is stronger today and able to hold out in defense against a very aggressive foe,” Wallace said.

Wallace said many have criticized NATO in the past saying the alliance is outdated or unneeded. “I think the response to the Russian invasion has shown that actually NATO is far from moribund,” he said. “NATO is alive, well and united.” (Source: US DoD)

10 May 22. Dr Tom Withington gave an excellent update on Russian EW activities in Ukraine at the AOC Europe 2022 Conference. Russia sees EW as key to its armed forces and has an ‘EW Day,’ on April 15th. There are four Russian Army EW Brigades in Ukraine and one Russian Navy Unit. The Army units consist of 4 Brigades.

The results have been mixed and certainly do not reflect the advertised expertise in Russia EW tactics:

HF jamming has seen a lack of discipline with retaliatory jamming from amateurs.
VHF Jamming is stovepiped and being defeated by the use of US SINCGARS frequency hopping radios.
Ukraine has been targeting the GSM cellphone network by locating usage of Russian-made cellphones and then targeting the user. 9 Generals have been targeted in such a manner.
There is very little SATCOM disruption.
Because Russia has supplied much of the same equipment to Ukraine it is jamming its own equipment.
Ukraine has upgraded its Russian-supplied equipment with Western technology, including NATO targeting technology.
Russia has used the KH31 anti-radar missile.
Russia has been exaggerating the range of its EW equipment in export blurb. Actual ranges come it at 25% of advertised ranges in some systems.

10 May 22. Despite Having Misjudged Russia’s ‘Hollow Force,’ Intelligence Officials Say Putin Is Still an ‘Evolving’ Threat. Top U.S. intelligence officials acknowledged Tuesday that they misjudged Russia’s military strength prior to that country’s invasion of Ukraine, including failing to recognize Russia had a “hollow force” that would struggle against fierce Ukrainian resistance.

They estimated that Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s conventional forces will take “years” to recover as a war that has seen thousands of Russian weapons destroyed, thousands of troop casualties and nearly a dozen generals killed continues.

“What we did not see from the inside was sort of this hollow force, lack of NCO corps, lack of leadership training, lack of effective doctrine,” Defense Intelligence Agency director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier told the Senate Armed Services Committee.

Read Next: 6 Airmen Caught with Thousands of Rounds of Stolen Ammo, Federal Indictment Alleges

The current U.S. National Defense Strategy, for which the Pentagon publicly released an unclassified summary in March, labels Russia an “acute” threat, apparently a step down from China’s “pacing challenge” but still part of the basis for the Pentagon’s record $773 bn budget request for 2023.

Prior to the war, which is nearing its 12th week, U.S. officials predicted that Kyiv could fall to Russia in a matter of days. Instead, Ukrainian forces thwarted Russian attempts to take the capital, forcing Russia to retreat and refocus its efforts on the southeastern Donbas region.

Ukraine’s latest estimate of Russian battlefield losses tallies about 26,000 casualties and the destruction of more than 1,000 tanks, more than 2,800 armored personnel vehicles, more than 300 planes and helicopters, and more. Those numbers could be overestimates fueled in part by the parallel information war between Ukraine and Russia.

Berrier said his agency estimates that eight to 10 Russian generals have been killed in the war and agreed with Arkansas Republican Sen. Tom Cotton’s suggestion that’s because they don’t have lower-ranking officers they can trust to carry out orders on the front lines. Ukrainian officials have placed the number of Russian generals killed at 12.Current Time 0:

While Berrier said the war appears to now be in a “stalemate,” Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines, who testified alongside Berrier, suggested Russian military’s weakness could lead to Putin becoming more volatile.

“The reality that Putin faces a mismatch between his ambitions and Russia’s current conventional military capabilities likely means the next few months could see us moving along a more unpredictable and potentially escalatory trajectory,” Haines said.

In addition to misjudging Russian capabilities ahead of the war, U.S. officials, including Berrier at a previous hearing, have attributed their faulty prediction on Kyiv falling to underestimating Ukrainians’ will to fight.

But on Tuesday, Berrier sparred with Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, when asked about the intelligence community’s struggle assessing will to fight. King also cited overestimates about the now-defunct Afghan forces’ will to fight the Taliban.

“There was never an intelligence community assessment that said the Ukrainians lacked the will to fight,” Berrier said. “Those assessments talked about their capacity to fight.”

Pressed further by King, Berrier acknowledged the assessments about Kyiv being overrun were “grossly wrong,” but still held the issue wasn’t U.S. analyses about Ukrainians’ resolve, adding, “I think the intelligence community did a great job” predicting the invasion.

“How can you possibly say that when we were told explicitly Kyiv would fall in three days and the government of Ukraine would fall in two weeks,” King shot back. “If you don’t concede there was a problem on this, then we’ve got a problem.”

Asked Tuesday how Russian losses in the war affect the overall threat from Moscow, both Berrier and Haines said it will take “years” for Russia to rebuild its conventional forces and replace the equipment and soldiers it’s lost.

“The overall threat level is not so much changed as it is the question of how it’s evolving,” Haines added. “The ground combat forces have been degraded considerably. … That may end up meaning that they have greater reliance on asymmetric tools during this period. So they may rely more on things like cyber, nuclear precision, etc.” (Source: Military.com)

11 May 22. Russia’s alleged cyber attack campaign against Ukraine appears to have continued up to the very minutes before the invasion. According to Reuters reports, the US, UK and European Union have formally blamed Russia for a large-scale cyber attack that disrupted Viasat’s satellite internet service an hour ahead of the 24 February assault.

The hacking efforts permanently destroyed “tens of thousands” of satellite terminals, Viasat said, while the UK noted that the attack affected central European internet users and wind farms in addition to the Ukrainian military and some civilian customers.

The accusations come in response to “new UK and US intelligence” linking Russia to the cyber attack, according to the UK Foreign Office. Russia has not responded to the claims as of this writing but has historically denied cyber attacks regardless of evidence.

The hack targeting Viasat likely had its intended effect. Ukraine cyber security official Victor Zhora disclosed in March that the anti-satellite effort led to a “huge loss” in communications at the very start of the war.

With that said, Ukraine has been better prepared in at least some instances. It claims to have fended off an attack against an energy provider in April, for example. While this latest attribution won’t dissuade Russia from conducting more attacks, it might signal that Ukraine and its allies are more aware of how to defend themselves online. (Source: https://www.cybersecurityconnect.com.au/)

10 May 22. Fact Sheet on U.S. Security Assistance for Ukraine.

The United States has committed more than $4.5bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $3.8bn since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked invasion on February 24.

On May 6, the Department of Defense (DoD) announced the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to an additional $150m tailored to meet critical Ukrainian needs for today’s fight as Russian forces launch a renewed offensive in eastern Ukraine. This authorization is the ninth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

United States security assistance committed to Ukraine includes:

Over 1,400 Stinger anti-aircraft systems;
Over 5,500 Javelin anti-armor systems;
Over 14,000 other anti-armor systems;
Over 700 Switchblade Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
90 155mm Howitzers and over 200,000 155mm artillery rounds;
72 Tactical Vehicles to tow 155mm Howitzers;
16 Mi-17 helicopters;
Hundreds of Armored High Mobility Multipurpose Wheeled Vehicles;
200 M113 Armored Personnel Carriers;
Over 7,000 small arms;
Over 50,000,000 rounds of ammunition;
75,000 sets of body armor and helmets;
121 Phoenix Ghost Tactical Unmanned Aerial Systems;
Laser-guided rocket systems;
Puma Unmanned Aerial Systems;
Unmanned Coastal Defense Vessels;
17 counter-artillery radars;
Four counter-mortar radars;
Two air surveillance radars;
M18A1 Claymore anti-personnel munitions;
C-4 explosives and demolition equipment for obstacle clearing;
Tactical secure communications systems;
Night vision devices, thermal imagery systems, optics, and laser rangefinders;
Commercial satellite imagery services;
Explosive ordnance disposal protective gear;
Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear protective equipment;
Medical supplies to include first aid kits;
Electronic jamming equipment;
Field equipment and spare parts.

The United States also continues to work with its Allies and partners to identify and provide Ukraine with additional capabilities to defend itself. (Source: US DoD)

06 May 22. Intensity of Conflict Creates Unprecedented Need for Weapons, Munitions.

The intensity of conflict in the 21st Century and the need for weapons and munitions has been a learning experience for American defense officials working to supply Ukraine for its fight against Russia.

William A. LaPlante, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said the need “really outpaces anything we’ve seen in recent memory.”

LaPlante spoke during a Pentagon news conference this afternoon. He said European allies are seeing the same situation and all are working together to get the Ukrainians what they need.

The United States is using several different funding vehicles to rush weapons and munitions to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion of the country on Feb. 24.

One account — the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative — is indicative of this need. Under this, the United States has sent $61.4 m in communications gear to Ukraine. Another $19.7 m went into Puma unmanned aerial vehicles, and $17.8 m went to Switchblade unmanned aerial vehicles.

It’s not all just weapons systems and munitions. Under the program, the Defense Department sent $2 m worth of binoculars to Ukraine, $1.2 m in meals and ready-to-eat rations and $4.9 m in medical supplies.

Many systems the Ukrainians have utilized against the Russians, like Javelin anti-armor and Stinger air defense systems, came from Army and Marine Corps war stocks. These stocks need to be replenished, and LaPlante said the goal is to ultimately replace the systems on a one-for-one basis where possible. (Source: US DoD)

11 May 22. UK defense chief flags iffy weapon stocks for Ukraine war.

The operation to supply Ukraine with defensive weapons is straining allied supply chains, laying bare the potential for bottlenecks in lower-echelon but high-tech weaponry needed quickly at scale, according to British Defence Minister Ben Wallace.

“Even fairly handheld equipment, like Stingers or Javelins or NLAWS, are almost as bespoke as aircraft,” he told reporters in Washington on Tuesday, referring to a trifecta of Western anti-aircraft and anti-tank weapons that Ukrainian forces have successfully used against Russian invaders.

With the production capacity of some of these weapons curtailed, dwindling munitions stocks present a kind of old-school conundrum that stands in contrast to the multibillion-dollar ships and aircraft normally considered pinnacles of modern war, Wallace said.

“I think it’s a really important lesson, and I think we need to all come together to work out how we’re going to deal with this,” he added.

Wallace shared his assessment of the war in Ukraine while in Washington to meet his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd Austin. Also on the agenda for the week was a huddle with trans-Atlantic defense leaders organized by the Munich Security Conference.

The British defense secretary said he doesn’t believe Russian leaders around President Vladimir Putin view Western weapons support to Ukraine as a game changer in their escalation calculus. “Because if the shoe was on the other foot, they’d be doing exactly the same thing,” he told reporters. “So what we definitely see is they’re not as agitated by lethal aid as you would think.”

Russian soldiers killed in Ukraine matters little to Russian generals, Wallace argued, as commanders throw evermore “cannon fodder” into the battle to make up for the Russian forces’ subpar technology and lack of joint fighting skills.

Economic punishment by the West, on the other hand, appears to hit Moscow harder because the effects are becoming evident for the population, potentially putting pressure on the government from within. “They’re more agitated by sanctions because you can’t hide that from your people,” Wallace said. “You can hide bodies; you can’t quite hide your inflation.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. director of national intelligence, Avril Haines, told senators the Russian military appears to be settling in for a protracted fight, limiting combat to the Donbas and southern Ukraine only as a temporary tactic, The Guardian reported Tuesday.

Haines was speaking on Capitol Hill about worldwide threats confronting the United States. She said prospects for peace talks are grim at the moment.

“As both Russia and Ukraine believe they can continue to make progress militarily, we do not see a viable negotiating path forward, at least in the short term,” Haines said.

Likewise, Wallace said the war is progressing in an unpredictable way, with no way of knowing what an end game might look like. “Only President Putin can know where his off ramp is going to be.”

Worried about the war as a source of instability for global economics, China is unlikely going to get involved on Russia’s side, Wallace predicted. “I think probably China’s rather embarrassed by the behavior of Putin, like an inconvenient friend,” he said.

(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

10 May 22. Russia behind cyber-attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion. The UK, EU, US and allies have announced that Russia is responsible for a series of cyber attacks since the renewed invasion of Ukraine.

New UK and US intelligence suggests Russia was behind an operation targeting commercial communications company Viasat in Ukraine.
Incident on 24th February caused outages for several thousand Ukrainian customers, and impacted windfarms and internet uses in central Europe.
Cyber security leaders from the 5 Eyes, EU and other international allies meet at the NCSC’s Cyber UK conference in Newport today to discuss shared threats.

Russia has been behind a series of cyber-attacks since the start of the renewed invasion of Ukraine, the EU, UK, US and other allies have announced today (10 May). The most recent attack on communications company Viasat in Ukraine had a wider impact across the continent, disrupting wind farms and internet users in central Europe.

The UK’s National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC) assesses that the Russian Military Intelligence was almost certainly involved in the 13 January defacements of Ukrainian government websites and the deployment of Whispergate destructive malware. The NCSC also assesses that it is almost certain Russia was responsible for the subsequent cyber-attack impacting Viasat on 24 February.

On 24 February, a cyber-attack against Viasat began approximately one hour before Russia launched its major invasion of Ukraine. Although the primary target is believed to have been the Ukrainian military, other customers were affected, including personal and commercial internet users. Wind farms in central Europe and internet users were also affected.

Viasat has said that ‘tens of thousands of terminals have been damaged, made inoperable and cannot be repaired.’

Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said:

This is clear and shocking evidence of a deliberate and malicious attack by Russia against Ukraine which had significant consequences on ordinary people and businesses in Ukraine and across Europe.

We will continue to call out Russia’s malign behaviour and unprovoked aggression across land, sea and cyberspace, and ensure it faces severe consequences.

Today’s announcement comes as cyber security leaders from the 5 Eyes, EU and international allies meet at the NCSC’s Cyber UK conference in Newport to discuss the cyber threats facing the world.

The UK has already sanctioned the GRU after their appalling actions in Salisbury, and has frozen more than £940 bn worth of bank assets and £117bn in personal net worth from oligarchs and their family members who fund Putin’s war machine. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

09 May 22. From howitzers to suicide drones: Pentagon seeks right ‘balance’ on training Ukrainians on new arms.

As the war in Ukraine drags into its third month, the United States is trying to figure out the best way — and pace — to train troops there on how to use the Western arms flooding into the besieged nation.

Hundreds of Ukrainian soldiers have either completed or are undergoing training on how to operate artillery, air defense radar systems, loitering drones armed with explosives and armored personnel carriers, Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby said during a Friday briefing.

But on Monday, Kirby noted the importance of not “overload[ing] their system” in the midst of an active fight by delivering more new weapons than their troops can handle.

“It’s a balance,” Kirby said during a briefing. “You want to make sure that they can use the materiel, that they can keep it up and maintain it. But you don’t want to put such an onerous requirement on them that it distracts them too much from the fight at hand.”

To strike that balance, Kirby said the Pentagon is in touch with Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine’s defense minister, to keep tabs on the nation’s needs and capacities.

For now, the Pentagon doesn’t see a need to boost the number of trainers.

“We obviously want to be flexible and if we need to change the numbers or add people to do training, we’ll certainly be open to looking at that,” Kirby said.

“Task Force Gator,” made up of troops from the Florida National Guard’s 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, was removed from Ukraine after the invasion, but it has stayed in Europe to lead training. About 160 U.S. personnel in Grafenwoehr, Germany, and other undisclosed locations are training Ukrainian forces on artillery and radar systems.

As of Monday, the U.S. has trained more than 300 Ukrainian artillerymen on the American-made M777 howitzer, with 50 more learning howitzer maintenance, Kirby said. In a signal the U.S. military sees a long-running fight, the U.S. has included spare parts for howitzers in its shipments and Kirby said the maintenance course would likely become “an ongoing requirement.”

“We’re going to stay open minded here, and if there’s a need for additional training, if there’s a need for other systems that could use some maintenance support, to include the provision of spare parts — because we can’t expect that the Ukrainians are going to necessarily have old spare parts for these things — then we’re going to do that,” Kirby said.

Separately, 15 Ukrainian troops have completed a U.S. military training on AN/MPQ-64 Sentinel mobile air defense radars provided by Washington, and 60 Ukrainians have completed a course on the venerable M113 armored personnel carrier.

Over the weekend, about 20 Ukrainian soldiers wrapped up their week-long training on how to use the new Air Force-developed Phoenix Ghost drone, Kirby said Monday. They were trained by airmen at Ramstein Air Base in Germany, he said.

Phoenix Ghost is similar to the Switchblade loitering munition drone, and was rapidly developed specifically for Ukraine. Bill LaPlante, the Pentagon’s top weapons buyer, told reporters Friday the Air Force’s Big Safari office was behind the drone’s creation.

“If you know anything about that office, they do lots of really great fast-type work,” LaPlante said. “They were very active during Afghanistan and Iraq.”

The United States is sending more than 121 of the tactical drones to Ukraine, and more than 20 have already arrived.

Kirby said Friday he’s not aware of plans to train another cadre of Ukrainian troops on the Phoenix Ghost, but that it would not surprise him if a second course was held.

“As we’re doing with the howitzers, we want to keep that training going,” Kirby said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Defense News)

10 May 22. Challenger 2s on the move for Exercise Defender Europe. The deployment involves a 1,200km road move via the port of Gdansk, Poland, to the King’s Royal Hussar Battlegroup’s training area.

British Challenger 2s are being transported from the NATO Forward Holding Base in Sennelager, Germany, to Poland for training.

Delivering the tanks is a task for the UK Theatre Enabling Group and includes a road move of 1,200km via the port of Gdansk to the eventual destination of the Polish training ground of the King’s Royal Hussars Battlegroup.

One thousand British troops are participating in the US-led Defender Europe exercise in the country.

Seventy-two of the main battle tanks and 8,000 UK troops will be operating from Finland to North Macedonia as part of exercises across eastern Europe to combat Russian aggression, described as one of the Army’s largest deployments since the Cold War. (Source: forces.net)

10 May 22. First Recorded Use of Switchblade 300 in Ukraine. Officially, the Ukrainian armed forces use kamikaze drones or known as loitering munition Switchblade 300, which were delivered from the United States earlier. Photos on social media show a completely destroyed drone. It is unclear whether the drone was shot down by Russian forces or fulfilled its mission.

Ukraine Weapons Tracker claims that the remains of the Switchblade 300 were discovered by Russian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast region. Of course, it is not possible to prove when the photos were taken and whether they were really from the cited region.

Experts suggest that the Switchblade 300 has most likely fulfilled its purpose, ie. it blew itself up, or hit, and blew up the target. Examining the photos, they noticed that only the tail [rear part] of the drone was taken in the photos. According to the design of the Switchblade 300, the explosive part is in front of the drone, ie. the explosive head is missing, which means that the drone is working as intended, but whether it hit something remains questionable.

Another proof that the Switchblade 300 was used for its intended purpose is the lack of the outer shell, which means that it burned out in an explosion. The photos also show burnt parts. However, another camera with wood screws is attached, which is strange.

There are fears that the drone has not been completely destroyed, however, and the question remains whether the Russians could access some of the technologies developed and used in the Switchblade 300.

The Switchblade is developed in two versions – Switchblade 300 and Switchblade 600. Both versions are in service only in the United States Army and United States Marine Corps. Interestingly, the US government has banned the manufacturer – AeroVironment to demonstrate the capabilities of the second option – Switchblade 600.

In reality, the Switchblade 300 and Switchblade 600 are unmanned aerial vehicles such as robotic intelligent bombs, ie. kamikaze. Like other drones, the Switchblade 300 and Switchblade 600 are equipped with electro-optical surveillance, detection, and search systems.

According to the manufacturer, the second version of the Switchblade 600 can travel 80 km in 40 minutes. Both versions are programmable for auto-hitting targets and have the ability after takeoff the operator to change their trajectory and direct them to another target.

The advantage of this type of kamikaze drone is that they are relatively much cheaper than standard air-to-ground or air-to-air missiles. According to unofficial data, the Switchblade 300 costs just $6,000, while one Hellfire air-to-surface missile costs approximately $150,000.

The Switchblade 300 and Switchblade 600 are tuned and fired in minutes from the launch tube. (Source: UAS VISION/Bulgarian Military)

10 May 22. Russian troops rely on old maps and basic satnav devices.

Forces are suffering from moral decay, says Wallace. Ill-equipped Russian soldiers have resorted to the “tragic” use of pine logs as makeshift protection on logistical trucks, decades-old paper maps and GPS receivers to fly planes, the defence secretary said yesterday.

Reading out a “charge sheet” against Russian generals, Ben Wallace said they had sent soldiers to war with inadequate equipment and that their failure to adapt before entering a conflict was “criminal”.

President Putin’s forces suffered from a “moral decay”, he said, and were rotten from the chief of the general staff, General Valery Gerasimov, down.

Russian soldiers had been “worn out” and “broken”, he said, and a smaller Ukrainian force could “break the Russian army to the extent they either have to go back to [the situation] pre-February, or it folds in on itself”.

His comments were tempered by those of the outgoing head of the British Army, General Sir Mark Carleton-Smith, who said he was “not comfortable” with Wallace’s plans for an army of “just 73,000”.

Wallace announced last year that the army would shrink by 9,000 by 2025, to its smallest size since the Napoleonic era. Carleton-Smith told Soldier magazine: “It’s too small. I was working to a direction that we regrow the army to 82,000 — 73,000 is a bit of an arbitrary figure because it is just a price point.”

In a speech yesterday at the National Army Museum, Wallace listed Russian military blunders and shortages. GPS receivers — basic satellite navigation devices — had been found “taped to the dashboards of downed Russian SU-34s, so the pilots knew where they were, due to the poor quality of their own systems”. Vehicles were “frequently found with 1980s paper maps of Ukraine in them”, he added.

Cages had been crudely welded to the tops of Russian tank turrets, he said. These were intended as an extra defence against rocket attacks from above, but analysts said they added weight, made the vehicles easier to spot and gave crews a false sense of security.

Wallace said: “Russian soldiers’ futile use of pine logs as makeshift protection on logistical trucks, and attaching overhead ‘cope cages’ to their tanks — it’s nothing short of tragic.”

Many vehicles were not maintained properly and their cheap tyres were frequently “blown out”, he said.

The Ministry of Defence warned that Russia was running out of precision-guided missiles after its relentless, ten-week bombardment of Ukrainian cities. Officials said that Russian troops were being forced to rely more heavily on inaccurate “dumb” bombs more likely to kill civilians.

“As the conflict continues beyond Russian pre-war expectations, Russia’s stockpile of precision-guided munitions has likely been heavily depleted,” an intelligence update said.

“This has forced the use of readily available but ageing munitions that are less reliable, less accurate and more easily intercepted. Russia will likely struggle to replace the precision weaponry it has already expended. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has revealed. (Source: The Times)

05 May 22. US cyber squad boosts Lithuanian defenses amid Russian threat. The U.S. military said it dispatched a cyber team to Lithuania to expose malign activity and strengthen the country’s networks amid mounting Russian aggression in Eastern Europe.

The so-called hunt-forward operation used specialists to monitor systems, identify threats and vulnerabilities, and relay insights to sharpen defenses. It lasted three months, beginning before Russia invaded Ukraine in late February, and concluded this week.

The endeavor is “a great example of how cyber is a team sport, and we have to play it together,” Army Maj. Gen. Joe Hartman, Cyber National Mission Force commander, said in a statement May 4. “With these missions, we see a broader scope of how these bad actors are trying to attack important government networks.”

Lithuania’s defense ministry acknowledged the operation, as well.

Vice Minister of National Defense Margiris Abukevicius said the Russia-Ukraine war has demonstrated “that cyberattacks are an inseparable element of modern military campaigns” and that preparedness is key. Ukrainian systems are blasted daily with digital attacks, crippling communications and websites, among other consequences.

A previous hunt-forward team was sent to Ukraine in 2018, according to Gen. Paul Nakasone, the leader of U.S. Cyber Command and the National Security Agency. Help continued as Moscow greenlit its latest invasion.

“Think how much this has changed, even in the past several months,” Nakasone said May 4 at a Vanderbilt University security summit. “What have we seen with the Russia-Ukraine crisis? Information that’s used to build and sustain a coalition. Information that’s used to expose malign behavior. Information that’s shared to increase a partner’s knowledge of an adversary.”

Some Russian neighbors are now hardening their defenses and eyeing NATO allies amid worries Russian President Vladimir Putin wants to reconstruct a Soviet empire — speculation that also bubbled up in 2014. The Cyber National Mission Force has over the years conducted 28 hunt-forward missions in 16 countries, including Estonia, Montenegro and North Macedonia. Dozens of networks were reinforced in the process.

The operations offer a “key asymmetric advantage that our adversaries don’t have,” according to Hartman, who also spoke at the Vanderbilt summit. “We get to find our adversaries in foreign space, before they’re able to come to America and compromise our network. And while we do that, we get to make our partners and allies safer.”

The latest hunt involved the CYBERCOM team and specialists with Lithuania’s National Cyber Security Center and defense IT service. It was the first effort of its kind between Lithuanian forces and the Cyber National Mission Force, according to the command. (Source: C4ISR & Networks)

09 May 22. Costa Rica: Threat Posed By Conti. On 8 May, Costa Rica’s new President Rodrigo Chaves declared a national emergency after multiple government bodies were subject to a ransomware attack.

SIGNIFICANCE

The threat actor responsible – cyber criminal group Conti’s affiliate UNC1756 – claimed via their dark web site to have leaked nearly 97 percent of the 672 GB of sensitive information they stole from the Costa Rican government after it declined to pay the group’s USD 10m ransom. The data leaked by Conti is still being investigated, making it difficult to determine the full scale and impact of this incident. Nevertheless, government agencies such as the Finance Ministry and the Ministry of Labour and Social Security are believed to have been compromised as of the time of writing.
Conti is a Ransomware-as-a-service (RaaS) group that has been active since at least 2020. Cyber security researchers have linked Conti to the Russian-speaking cyber criminal group Wizard Spider, which is associated with other notorious malware strains such as Ryuk, TrickBot, and BazarLoader. The group initially grew in notoriety after the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) linked it to at least 400 cyber attacks against organisations worldwide during the Covid-19 pandemic, including emergency medical services. However, displeasure over the group’s allegiance with Moscow during its invasion of Ukraine resulted in a Ukrainian cyber security researcher with privileged access leaking over 160,000 internal messages and source code for its ransomware strain in the February-March “Conti Leak”.
The US Department of State claimed on 6 May that the group has compromised more than 1,000 victims and gathered over USD 150 m in ransoms up to January 2022. As a result, Washington is offering a USD 15 m reward for any information that could help identify and locate Conti’s leadership and co-conspirators. While similar rewards were extended in November 2021 for information on the REvil and Darkside ransomware cartels, no significant arrests have been made of these groups’ leadership.

FORECAST

The “Conti Leak”, coupled with the unease amongst the group’s Ukrainian associate hackers, resulted in some parts of its dark web infrastructure being dismantled in early March. This development raised speculation that the group may be either shuttering or rebranding its operations. Indeed, recent investigations revealed that Conti is operating several “side businesses”, such as UNC1756, to sustain its cyber criminal activities in light of declining support from its Ukrainian hackers. This development underscores cyber threat actors’ growing tactic of either rebranding themselves under a new moniker or establishing splinter groups to continue targeting industries of interest, such as tech or energy, in the face of significant in-fighting or pressure from global law enforcement agencies.

Additional Conti ransomware attacks are highly likely to be launched in the coming months. Most of this activity will likely be financially motivated and aimed at generating funds to sustain its cyber criminal enterprise. However, Conti’s pledge to support/defend the Russian government over its invasion of Ukraine will ensure that there remains a heightened risk of critical infrastructure sectors, such as energy, water, or finance, operating in countries hostile to Moscow, such as the US, also being targeted in response to the West’s military, financial or regulatory support of Ukraine. (Source: Sibylline)

09 May 22. US sending Ukraine electronic jamming gear in $150m package.

The U.S. is sending electronic jamming equipment to the front lines in Ukraine. The Defense Department on May 6 said a $150 m security package bound for Eastern Europe includes the jamming gear, as well as 25,000 artillery rounds, radar systems, and other field equipment and spares.

The Pentagon would not comment publicly on specific details about the electronic warfare kit, which Ukrainian forces requested as Russia continues its offensive in the east part of the country. A senior defense official said Monday it was the first time the U.S. gave EW equipment to Ukraine since Russia’s invasion began Feb. 24.

“This is all of a piece of allowing the Ukrainians to operate more effectively, in a very condensed geographic area, where we know the Russians routinely tried to use electronic jamming as a way of their own ability to defend themselves against attack,” the official said.

The equipment will be siphoned from American defense stocks, marking the ninth drawdown for Ukraine since August. The U.S. has committed more than $6.5bn in security assistance to the country since 2014, with nearly $4bn of that total made since Russia launched its latest invasion.

“The United States has provided a historic amount of security assistance to Ukraine at rapid speed,” President Joe Biden said in a statement. “U.S. support, together with the contributions of our allies and partners, has been critical in helping Ukraine win the battle of Kyiv and hinder Putin’s war aims in Ukraine.”

Electronic warfare is a battle for control of the electromagnetic spectrum, relied upon for situational awareness and communications. While EW, as it’s known, lacks the spectacle or bombast of missiles meeting targets and tanks thundering through towns, it can be decisive, considering the digital portfolio of modern militaries.

The U.S. years ago began providing Ukraine with upgraded radios to protect communications and combat jamming efforts. In early April, the Pentagon announced a potentially $300m batch of aid would include communications systems and similar gear.

“There’s a quite extensive, detailed list of what some of these capabilities are, including unmanned aerial systems and some tactical, secure communications, and other like capabilities,” John Kirby, the Pentagon press secretary, said during an April 4 briefing.

Days prior, he told reporters Ukrainian leaders “still have good command and control over their forces in the field,” despite Russian harassment. (Source: Defense News)

09 May 22. Biden Signs Lend-Lease Act to Supply More Security Assistance to Ukraine. Today, President Joe Biden signed into law the “Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022.”

The act authorizes the administration, through fiscal year 2023, to lend or lease military equipment to Ukraine and other Eastern European countries. The act would exempt the administration from certain provisions of law that govern the loan or lease of military equipment to foreign countries, such as the five-year limit on the duration of the loan or the requirement that receiving countries pay all costs incurred by the United States in leasing the defense equipment.

Any loan or lease of military equipment to Ukraine would still be subject to all applicable laws concerning the return of such equipment.

Under current law, payments received under leasing agreements with foreign countries are deposited in the Treasury Department as miscellaneous receipts and are classified as direct spending.

This act could increase amounts deposited in the treasury if the administration lends or leases equipment that it otherwise would not have provided under current law.

Conversely, those deposits would decrease if the administration lends or leases equipment at a reduced cost under the act relative to amounts it otherwise would have charged under its existing authorities.

Lend-lease has been used before, during World War II.

At that time, total of $50.1bn, equivalent to $690bn in 2020, worth of supplies were shipped. In all, $31.4bn went to the United Kingdom, $3.2bn to France, $1.6bn to China, $11.3bn to the Soviet Union and the remaining $2.6bn to other allies. (Source: US DoD)

03 May 22. Comtech Telecommunications Responds To Ukrainian Governemt And Sends Comet™ Troposcatter Systems.

“We share the profound concerns of the global community in the ongoing crisis that is gripping Ukraine, and causing untold suffering for its people.”

Comtech Telecommunications Corp. (NASDAQ: CMTL), provider of next-generation 911 emergency systems and secure wireless communications technologies, announced that the company has donated COMET™ troposcatter systems at the request of the Ukrainian government.

COMET™ over-the-horizon transportable terminals were specifically requested by the Ukrainian government to support their urgent need for communications that can be relied upon, in any environment, under any conditions. The Comtech COMET™ is the world’s smallest and lightest modular man-packable troposcatter system and is part of a suite of troposcatter systems that provide Beyond-Line-of-Sight (“BLOS”) communications for governmental disaster recovery and commercial industrial applications.

“We share the profound concerns of the global community in the ongoing crisis that is gripping Ukraine, and causing untold suffering for its people,” said Michael Porcelain, President and CEO of Comtech. “We know how critically important the ability to communicate is to the brave people living there, and we are proud to be able to support their needs. It is our hope that both parties — Russia and Ukraine — can find a way toward negotiating a durable and lasting peace.”

Mr. Porcelain further added, “Our customers rely on our Failsafe Communications equipment to work no matter where they are, or what’s going on outside — from armed conflict to negotiating a peace agreement. We appreciate that our response is a small contribution in the face of an enormous crisis, but we are honored to have an opportunity to play whatever role we can in helping restore peace to this area of the world.”

Since 2017, Comtech has supported multiple communications upgrade and modernization initiatives for the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense. Despite the enormous uncertainties enveloping the region, Comtech was able to respond to Ukraine’s request to help meet a desperate need for the types of Failsafe Communications solutions that Comtech can provide. (Source: Satnews)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company

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NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

VETERANS UPDATE

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE