NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

Sponsored by Exensor

www.exensor.com

————————————————————————-

Ukraine Conflict Update – 09 May.

Military and hard security developments

Assault on Azovstal continued overnight following reports that Russian forces have entered the territory of the plant itself, with the Ukrainian defenders allegedly losing ground. Additionally, despite the announcements of a ceasefire between 5 – 7 May to allow for civilian evacuations, media reports suggest that yesterday’s evacuation efforts from Azovstal were disrupted. Nevertheless, this morning Ukrainian officials announced that the “next stage” of evacuations from Azovstal is underway, though it is highly uncertain whether today’s efforts will prove more successful, with the latest unconfirmed reports suggesting that the Russian forces have fired on a car intended to evacuate civilians. The renewed Russian offensive on the plant is likely an effort to cement Russia’s control over Mariupol ahead of 9 May in order to present its “liberation” as a notable “victory” to the public, amid the slow progress in the Donbas.
On 5 May, officials in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria have once again accused Ukraine of provocations, alleging that they destroyed another Ukrainian drone and accused Ukrainian forces of conducting military exercises near the Moldovan border. The developments are in line with our previous assessment that the recent intensification of the security situation in and around Transnistria is highly likely designed by Russia or pro-Russian forces in Transnistria and serves as a way to allow Moscow to signal the enduring threat to Odesa. Although this threat is unlikely to materialise in the short term, it will nonetheless serve to pressure Kyiv to commit resources to the region and subsequently stop them from deploying elsewhere.
In line with our previous assessments, local media reports indicate that Russian forces are preventing civilians leaving the occupied Kherson. Russian soldiers are reportedly undertaking thorough and often allegedly abusive checks at check points as they search for “what they see as nationalist and neo-Nazi tattoos.” The reports notably come ahead of the anticipated referendum in Kherson, which could result in Russia then moving to annex the territory.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

On 6 May, the Kremlin has once again accused Poland of “hostile” rhetoric, alleging that Warsaw could threaten Ukraine’s territorial integrity, implying that it plans to annex the western part of Ukraine. The Kremlin previously made similar allegations last week, with the rhetoric reflective of the escalating war of words, but may also in part underline genuine Russian paranoia over the scope for direct NATO intervention in Ukraine. Moreover, such statements are also likely designed for the domestic audience as part of the ongoing narrative that paints NATO as the aggressor, in order to prepare the population for a protracted war.
Following yesterday’s media reports regarding the US sharing real-time battlefield intelligence with Ukraine, unnamed US officials also stated that the intelligence provided by the US helped Kyiv to locate and sink the Moskva. However, the Pentagon distanced itself from reports that the US is providing support in the killing of Russian generals in Ukraine, denying that it provides “intelligence on the location of senior military leaders on the battlefield.” The comments and further revelations of the intelligence sharing further underline the deepening support to Ukraine across multiple areas and will feed into the Kremlin’s narrative that the war in Ukraine is against the broader West and NATO. Meanwhile, the Kremlin stated that western support to Ukraine will “slow down but won’t stop” Russian military objectives in Ukraine, further underlining that the war will continue in the months ahead.
Inside Russia itself, media reports publicised a video showing a conscription office in western Siberia being attacked with Molotov cocktails on 5 May. Those responsible for the attack have reportedly not yet been found by the authorities. The incident is the latest in a series of similar such attacks across Russia since the invasion on 24 February. Whilst representative of the underlying discontent with the war from a segment of the population, such incidents and the broader acts of mass protest are still relatively rare and isolated.
Moreover, further restrictions on the information landscape are likely underway in Russia, with Putin on 6 May questioning the reliability of information provided on Wikipedia and proposed that Russia seek to develop a domestic alternative. Putin’s remarks underline the risk of Wikipedia being banned, with authorities previously demanding that the platform delete “unreliable” content regarding the “special operation in Ukraine.” The development is on trend with the unprecedented squeeze on the media and information landscape, which is highly unlikely to be reversed.

Economic/business environment developments

The European Commission has reportedly agreed to give Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic extensions on implementing an embargo on Russian oil, longer than the six-month ‘phasing out’ period the original package envisaged. All three countries will be allowed to purchase oil from Russian pipelines until 2024 under the rumoured deal, with the Czech Republic to shift away from Russian pipelines before then if sufficient oil via alternative pipelines can be sourced.
In the short term, the rumoured extensions will make the full adoption of the sanctions package more likely, although it remains to be seen what stance Hungary will take. If other member states also petition for similar extensions, there remains a risk that the impact and efficacy of the embargo on Russia will be substantially weakened.
Berlin has indicated the four LNG terminals it acquired recently will be repurposed to provide LNG to the whole EU, potentially alleviating the risk of a Russian energy cut in retaliation to the sixth sanctions package.
The latest statistics from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) show that over 3.8 m Russians have left the country in the first three months of 2022, with former Soviet states receiving most of the arrivals. Such large outflow of the population is almost certain to have been prompted by the war in Ukraine and the threat of a potential mass mobilisation and martial law in Russia. The mass exodus of people will only reinforce Russia’s long-standing brain drain issue and reinforce long-term economic decline. Additionally, unconfirmed reports from human rights organisations suggest that FSB agents have been asking families of those who have left Russia to persuade them to return, likely indicating that Moscow is keenly aware of the challenges associate with the exacerbated population decline.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) remains a severe issue impeding the return of residents and businesses to Kyiv and the surrounding oblast. In particular, north-west and north-east of Kyiv remain at high risk, with incidents yesterday in Hoholiv indicating the enduring risk posed by UXO to civilian communities.
Significant risk of targeted and indiscriminate air and missile strikes across central and western Ukraine remains. Despite their withdrawal from Kyiv oblast on 6 April, Russian forces retain the ability to strike across the entirety of Ukraine, and will likely continue to target major transport infrastructure (particularly railways and airfields) believed to be transit points for Western military aid. This will seriously impact efforts to move humanitarian aid into Ukraine, and particularly to move existing aid into eastern Ukraine, where food, water and power shortages continue to escalate in severity.
The H01/P01 and the E40 roads are the most viable routes for road access to and from Kyiv. The E40 and the E373 highways were declared ‘open’ for traffic by Ukrainian authorities and are now relatively safe, however, they remain heavily damaged and road-clearing processes continue which may cause delays. The threat of air attacks remains high and therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes. The threat posed by mines and unexploded ordnance also remains high across Kyiv oblast. We note that this advisory is supported by a warning from the Kyiv Region Military Administration on 12 April stating that unoccupied towns and settlements adjacent to Kyiv should not be re-settled by civilian populations due to high quantities of mines and unexploded ordnance.
Due to air attacks on Kremenchuk and Uman on 25 April, the westbound E50 road to Oleksandriya, and from there the H01 highway, seems to be a relatively safer route from Dnipro to Kyiv. Between Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, there are two main road routes: the H08 and E105. Due to Russian military targeting civilian and military aviation infrastructure with missile strikes, we believe there is substantial risk associated with all road routes into Zaporizhzhia, as the H08 is close to Shyroke Airfield just north-west of Zaporizhzhia, and the E105 passes through Zaporizhzhia International Airport and then Vilniansk Airfield. As such, we assess that all approaches into Zaporizhzhia face elevated risk from air/missile strikes at present.

FORECAST

In the lead up to 9 May Victory Day, Russia’s focus on Mariupol continues, with the Russian forces moving closer towards seizing Azovstal through a ground assault. Ukrainian officials have moreover reported that the Russian forces have continued to restore Soviet-era monuments in Mariupol and taking down road signs spelling the city’s name in Ukrainian, replacing them with Russian ones. The developments follow yesterday’s visit from President Putin’s deputy chief of staff Sergey Kiriyenko to Mariupol, where he unveiled a pro-war statute intended to symbolise local support for Russia’s invasion. However, the Kremlin has once again today declined to comment on whether a Victory Day parade will take place in Mariupol, likely given the still ongoing attempts to conquer Azovstal. Nevertheless, the increased push to conquer the remaining resistance in Azovstal ahead of 9 May likely indicates that Russia is seeking to make Mariupol the focus of its military “achievements” in Ukraine given the strategic importance of the city. Notably a decisive “victory” there would allow Putin to claim that Russia had officially established a land corridor with the annexed Crimea.

Nevertheless, the Kremlin has also reiterated that there are no plans to declare a general mobilisation. However, this remains a possibility given that it is highly unlikely that Russia will scale down its operations in Ukraine given it has yet to achieve its bare minimum goal of capturing the entire Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Furthermore, our assessment remains that the likelihood of any peace deal between Ukraine and Russia is minimal at present, and is reflected by President Zelensky’s statement today that Russian troops must withdraw completely for Ukraine to claim back its territories.

Russia: Sanctions Update

This week the US Treasury Department announced it will add Hikvision, a Chinese surveillance company, to the specially designated national (SDN) list. These sanctions ban American companies or citizens from trading or conducting financial transactions with listed entities and freezes assets held in the US. These sanctions also impact dollar denominated transactions regardless of whether a company is US-based. The threat of the US issuing sanctions against the company comes as Hikvision is accused of facilitating human rights abuses of Uighurs by supplying the Chinese government with surveillance cameras. New sanctions will have a severe impact on Hikvision’s international business operations as countries avoid breaching US sanctions and facing fines. Hikvision customers should anticipate some notable operational disruption once sanctions are issued, though short-term disruptions will ease once customers pivot to other China-based surveillance suppliers such as Dahua. Within the tech sector, other businesses should be aware of the reality that they could also be sanctioned if their technology is found to support human rights violations.

In other sanctions updates, the European Commission issued its sixth round of sanctions against Russia in another attempt to stop Russia’s war in Ukraine. The sanctions package included the head of the Russian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Kirill. According to the European External Action Service, Kirill has been a “prominent” supporter of Russia’s war in Ukraine and amplified Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rhetoric against Ukraine. Due to Kirill’s influence in promoting Russia’s war in Ukraine, it is not unusual that the European Commission imposed sanctions on him. The Commission’s decision is reflective of its previous sanctions strategy, though it has widened its list of targets outside of Putin’s inner circle suggesting that the initial belief that sanctions will be able to bring an end to the war has not been as effective as previously hoped. Prominent Russian figures who promote the war should anticipate being targeted by the West in the future.

The European Union’s (EU) latest proposal to impose sanctions on Russian oil received notable backlash from Hungary this week. Hungarian Foreign Minister, Peter Szijjarto, said Hungary could not support the proposal, citing energy security concerns. Disagreements within the EU highlights the dilemma EU-member states face in presenting a united front against Russia as Hungary demonstrates that each country’s national interests are different. Hungary has maintained a good relationship with Russia in the past, with President Putin using Hungarian PM Viktor Orban to create instability and disunity in the EU, and is likely to want to preserve their relationship. In the upcoming days and weeks, it is expected that Hungary and the EU will meet and attempt to find a mutually beneficial sanctions package which continues to hit Russia’s economy whilst alleviating energy security concerns for Hungary.

The Ukrainian military reported a reduction in Russian ground attacks over the last 24 hours, with the frontlines remaining largely unchanged, thought the Russian forces reportedly made “some small progress” in the northern Donbas. Additionally, there was consistent artillery shelling along the frontlines in the east and south.
Russian attacks, albeit unsuccessful, were conducted in Lyman (where thermobaric munitions were also reportedly used), Severodonetsk, and Popasna. Artillery attacks along the Donetsk-Luhansk Oblasts line continued. Grain facilities in Rubizhne and Soledar were also targeted by Russian forces. Meanwhile, the Donetsk People’s Republic claimed to have seized the village of Troitske.
Furthermore, Russian forces have not made any significant territorial gains in southern Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk Oblasts. Russian reinforcements moving towards the frontlines were spotted in Kharkiv. The General Staff of the Ukrainian armed forces also noted that Russian forces “strengthened their air defence systems and electronic warfare” in the south, but reported that Russia’s 4th Tank Division and 106th Airborne Division had withdrawn to Russia as result of heavy losses. Elsewhere in Ukraine, a Russian cruise missile also reportedly hit power lines in Pokrovsky, Dnipropetrovsk, further underlining the persistent Russian targeting of critical infrastructure.
Meanwhile, according to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Valerii Zalyzhnyi, Ukrainian forces had transitioned to counteroffensive operations around Kharkiv and Izyum, to push Russian forces back and possibly to threaten Russian lines of communication.
Russian offensive operations continued towards Zaporizhia City, but no attacks were reported in Kherson and Mykolaiv oblasts, with Ukraine’s Operational Command South reporting that Ukrainian forces had pushed Russian forces 20 km back from Mykolaiv City. Russian forces also attacked Hulyaipole. The Zaporizhia Oblast Military Administration reported that up to 13 battalion tactical groups (BTGs), although likely understrength, were concentrated on the line of advance towards Zaporizhia City or the Donetsk Oblast.
In Mariupol, Russian forces continued their ground assault operations against the Azovstal steel works overnight. Despite the announcements of a ceasefire between 5 – 7 May to allow for civilian evacuations, media reports suggest that yesterday’s evacuation efforts from Azovstal were disrupted. Nevertheless, this morning, 6 May, Ukrainian officials announced that the “next stage” of evacuations from Azovstal is underway, though it is presently uncertain whether today’s efforts will prove more successful. The renewed Russian offensive on the plant is likely an effort to cement Russia’s control over Mariupol ahead of 9 May in order to present its “liberation” as a notable “victory” to the public, amid the slow progress in the Donbas.
On the morning of 6 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence announced that a missile strike had destroyed an ammunition depot in Kramatorsk, eastern Ukraine. It added that its air defences had shot down two Ukrainian aircraft – one Mig-29 and one Su-25.
In Crimea, Russian authorities reported that Russian forces had restored cargo and passenger railway connections between Crimea and Kherson Oblast. Russian forces will benefit from improved logistical connections, which will likely improve troop replenishments and reinforcements. The restoration transportation links will also likely be promoted as a notable “achievement” to the Russian public during the Victory Day celebrations.
Furthermore, officials in the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria have once again accused Ukraine of provocations, alleging that they destroyed another Ukrainian drone and accused Ukrainian forces of conducting military exercises near the Moldovan border. The developments are in line with our previous assessment that the recent intensification of the security situation in and around Transnistria is highly likely designed by Russia or pro-Russian forces in Transnistria and serves as a way to allow Moscow to signal the enduring threat to Odesa and will likely pressure Kyiv to commit resources to the region.
Following yesterday’s media reports regarding the US sharing real-time battlefield intelligence with Ukraine, unnamed US officials also stated that US intelligence helped Ukrainian forces sink the Moskva on 14 April. The Slava-class guided missile cruiser was the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet and the largest Russian warship sunk since the Second World War. Its sinking was a hugely symbolic and humiliating loss for Russia. The US reiterated that the intelligence was allegedly supplied for defensive purposes, likely an effort to distance the US from direct Russian retaliation. In response, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov stated that US intelligence would not prevent Russia from achieving its military objectives, underlining that Russia is very unlikely to wind down its operations in Ukraine soon. Continued flow of reliable intelligence to Ukrainian forces will nevertheless enable Ukrainian forces to be more effective on the battlefield.
Unconfirmed media reports suggest that the Admiral Grigorovich-class frigate ‘Admiral Makarov’ was allegedly hit and sunk by Ukrainian anti-ship Neptune missiles on 6 May in an undisclosed location in the Black Sea. While this was not independently confirmed, naval tracking websites reported a Russian SPK-46150 rescue ship being dispatched to the Admiral Makarov’s last location. Moreover, the chairman of the Odessa Regional Council, Oleksiy Goncharenko, reportedly noted on Telegram that the Admiral Makarov was on fire, but that it had not sunk.
On 6 May, German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht announced that Germany will deliver seven Panzerhaubitze 2000 (PzH 2000) self-propelled howitzers and an initial supply of related ammunition package to Ukraine. These will be come from Bundeswehr (German Army) inventories and will be delivered in a few weeks following maintenance. The developments underline increased efforts in Berlin to provide military assistance to Ukraine, marking a change in policy.
Lastly, some unidentified Belarusian units reportedly increased their combat readiness, according to the Ukrainian General Staff. Belarusian forces are currently conducting a snap military exercises. Information released on social media noted Belarusian military equipment being deployed towards Pinsk, near Ukraine’s western border. While Belarusian forces remain unlikely to join the war, Ukrainian

Russian offensive in the Donbas continues to stall, with no notable gains observed over the last 24-hours. However, with Victory Day fast approaching, the Russian forces have intensified their focus on capturing Azovstal, with heavy fighting at the steel works reported overnight into 5 May. Notably, Russian troops have allegedly entered the Azovstal plant territory for the first time yesterday evening, indicating intent to capture it through a ground assault. The latest reports suggest that the compound continues to hold out, but the extent of last night’s Russian advance into Azovstal is unclear, with the battle for the plant highly likely to prove costly for both sides. Lastly, the renewed offensive on Azovstal is reflective of Russia’s efforts to solidify its control over Mariupol in time for the 9 May celebrations and attempts to present “victories” in Ukraine to the Russian public.
In other parts of Ukraine, airstrikes against infrastructure persisted on 4 May, with Ukrainian media reporting shelling of the railway in the centre of Dnipro. A missile strike on a village of Trebukhiv, to the east of Kyiv was also reported yesterday evening, as well as explosions in Mykolayiv and Odesa. Targeting of Ukraine’s supply lines will remain a high priority for Russia and as the series of strikes this week indicates, this trend is intensifying. Railways and transportation infrastructure are highly likely to remain one of the main targets in a bid to disrupt western weapons shipments to Ukraine.
More broadly, on 4 May the Finnish defence ministry reported that a Russian military aircraft has violated Finland’s airspace. The development is in line with our previous assessment that Russia is highly likely to signal to Finland – as well as Sweden – against joining the alliance, and has previously threatened “military-technical measures”, which could take the form of cyber-attacks, aerial incursions and naval drills in the Baltic, if either of the states moves towards NATO membership. Similar reports of Russian planes crossing the Swedish border near a naval base in the south of the country were also noted last week. As such, given that both countries have fast tracked their debates to join NATO, the incidents are reflective of Russia’s posturing, rather than a direct and imminent threat of a military conflict.

Diplomatic and strategic developments

In an interview on 5 May Belarusian President Alyaksandr Lukashenka stated that he did not expect the war in Ukraine to “drag on” for as long as it has. Although he defended Russia’s invasion, Lukashenka spoke out against any threats to use nuclear weapons, noting Belarus’ proximity to Ukraine. Lukashenka’s comments during the interview appear to somewhat distance himself from the war, but Belarus nevertheless remains the only country vocally supportive of Russia. Notably, given Lukashenka’s strong reliance on Putin for survival – especially since the August 2021 political crisis – the former does not have any leverage over Moscow. This means that, even should Lukashenka be opposed to the war, Minsk is almost entirely dependent on Russia and as such very unlikely to influence Putin’s decisions. Moscow has also notably increased its military presence in Belarus, with the latter also a subject of strong international sanctions, further reinforcing Minsk’s dependence on Russia. Notably, though, with Russia itself now facing unprecedented economic problems, its ability to continue supporting Minsk economically is likely to diminish over time.
On 4 May, Moscow announced a launch of simulated nuclear-capable missile strikes in the Kaliningrad enclave, which borders EU member states Poland and Lithuania. The development follows previous threats from Moscow that Russia is willing to use tactical nuclear weapons if its existence is threatened and warnings of a “lightning fast” response should the West intervene directly in Ukraine. Nevertheless, it remains our assessment that this is a very unlikely scenario in the short term and that these latest developments are intended to remind the West of the existence of this threat, particularly as Russia seeks to project its power domestically in the lead up to the Victory Day celebrations.
Additionally, yesterday, officials in the annexed Crimea peninsula said that they have begun a restoration of traffic, after eight years of blockade due to Ukraine suspending train and bus services to Crimea in 2014. The restoration of passenger services was made possible after the Russian forces captured parts of southern Ukraine, creating a land bridge to Crimea. Most notably, preparations to carry out a “referendum” are underway in Kherson, which Russia could move to annex in the coming weeks along with the occupied parts of the Donbas. Such a move would effectively permanently make these territories a part of Russia and is another option available to the Kremlin that could be presented as a “victory” to the public.
Meanwhile, yesterday Moscow also announced that it is revoking visa-free entry for most European diplomats, and revoked “simplified visa procedures” for such persons, as well as also for “journalists from the EU, Denmark, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, and Switzerland”, according to the Russian Foreign Ministry. The developments underline an unprecedented diplomatic low between Russia and the West and will only isolate Moscow even further from the international community and diminish the prospects of any normalisation in bilateral relations for many months to come.
Lastly, media reports indicate that unnamed US officials have confirmed that they have been sharing intelligence with Kyiv that assisted the Ukrainian forces in successfully killing many Russian generals in the war. Such statements, on top of the ongoing efforts to supply Kyiv with additional military aid will reinforce the perception of the West, in particular the US, becoming increasingly more involved in Ukraine and increase the risk of targeted long-range strikes against key infrastructure close to NATO borders in Ukraine, as well as risk of Russian retaliation against “unfriendly” nations in a form of cyber attacks and nuclear posturing.

Economic/business environment developments

According to comments made by the Hungarian Foreign Minister on 4 May, Budapest will reportedly not agree to the currently proposed ban on Russian oil imports, claiming that it is “against Hungarian national energy security.” Meanwhile, Slovakia reportedly also stated that it needs a much longer transition period, until the end of 2025. The development highlights an anticipated discord within the EU, and will delay efforts to implement a sixth sanctions package on Russia. Nevertheless, with the exception of Hungary, the weight of public and governmental opinion within the EU is increasingly in favour of wholesale sanctions on Russian oil and gas, and this impetus is likely to drive home the delivery of a sixth sanctions package in the coming weeks, albeit with some delays.
Additionally, following the UK’s and the EU’s announcement of a new round of sanctions, US President Joe Biden also stated that the US is “open to additional sanctions” against Moscow. According to Biden’s comments further discussions about future potential measures will be discussed with the G7 members this week regarding the potential new steps.

Humanitarian/evacuation developments

Unexploded ordnance (UXO) remains a severe issue impeding the return of residents and businesses to Kyiv and the surrounding oblast. As of 5 May, landmine explosions in Hoholiv, Kyiv oblast, wounded at least three persons and destroyed an unconfirmed number of civilian vehicles. A general return to business operations in Kyiv and the surrounding oblast remains inadvisable due to high quantities of UXO.
Missile strikes in Kyiv city centre on the morning of 5 May highlight the significant risk of targeted and indiscriminate air and missile strikes across central and western Ukraine. Despite their withdrawal from Kyiv oblast on 6 April, Russian forces retain the ability to strike across the entirety of Ukraine, and will likely continue to target major transport infrastructure (particularly railways and airfields) believed to be transit points for Western military aid. This will seriously impact efforts to move humanitarian aid into Ukraine, and particularly to move existing aid into eastern Ukraine, where food, water and power shortages continue to escalate in severity.
The H01/P01 and the E40 roads are the most viable routes for road access to and from Kyiv. The E40 and the E373 highways were declared ‘open’ for traffic by Ukrainian authorities and are now relatively safe, however, they remain heavily damaged and road-clearing processes continue which may cause delays. The threat of air attacks remains high and therefore, safety cannot be guaranteed on any westbound evacuation routes. The threat posed by mines and unexploded ordnance also remains high across Kyiv oblast. We note that this advisory is supported by a warning from the Kyiv Region Military Administration on 12 April stating that unoccupied towns and settlements adjacent to Kyiv should not be re-settled by civilian populations due to high quantities of mines and unexploded ordnance.
Due to air attacks on Kremenchuk and Uman on 25 April, the westbound E50 road to Oleksandriya, and from there the H01 highway, seems to be a relatively safer route from Dnipro to Kyiv. Between Dnipro and Zaporizhzhia, there are two main road routes: the H08 and E105. Due to Russian military targeting civilian and military aviation infrastructure with missile strikes, we believe there is substantial risk associated with all road routes into Zaporizhzhia, as the H08 is close to Shyroke Airfield just north-west of Zaporizhzhia, and the E105 passes through Zaporizhzhia International Airport and then Vilniansk Airfield. As such, we assess that all approaches into Zaporizhzhia face elevated risk from air/missile strikes at present.

FORECAST

Focus on capturing Azovstal intensified overnight with fierce combat reported at the time of writing, likely indicating that Russia is hoping to destroy the remaining resistance ahead of 9 May and solidify its military and political presence in Mariupol. Meanwhile, Ukrainian intelligence also reported that preparations for a Victory Day parade are ongoing in Mariupol, with Russia organising press tours in the city – and other captured territories – to promote the image of these areas having been “liberated”. Moreover, President Putin’s deputy chief of staff Sergey Kiriyenko is currently in Mariupol and on 5 May unveiled a pro-war statute intended to symbolise local support for Russia’s invasion. These developments further indicate that Russia is likely betting on its ability to conquer the remaining resistance in Azovstal in the coming days and make Mariupol the focus of its military “achievements” in Ukraine. Such a move would likely also serve to distract from the stalled Russian progress in the Donbas amid continued counter offensives from Ukraine.

Additionally, Kiriyenko also confirmed today that there will be no Victory Day parade in Donetsk and Luhansk. This is consistent with the head of the Donetsk People’s Republic (DNR) Denis Pushilin statement on 28 April that the republic will postpone its celebrations until the entire Donetsk oblast is “liberated”. Although it is possible that Putin could announce the annexation of the occupied Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics early next week, it appears more likely that the annexation, if it is planned, is more likely to take place once Russia achieved its goal of conquering both oblasts entirely. Notably, prior to the February invasion Putin recognised all of Donetsk and Luhansk as independent, not just the occupied territories. As such, it remains our assessment that regardless of what announcements are made on 9 May, the war will extend well beyond next week, with the likely bare minimum objective of capturing Donetsk and Luhansk entirely likely to take several weeks, if not months.

Russian advances in the Donbas continue to remain slow, with the Russian offensive operations still failing to successfully encircle Ukrainian defences in Rubizhne. The developments further underline our assessment that major progress ahead of 9 May is currently very unlikely.
Heavy fighting at the Azovstal steel works continued overnight into 5 May. Moreover, Russian troops have allegedly entered the territory of the Azovstal plant itself for the first time yesterday evening, indicating intent to capture it through a ground assault. Although the latest reports suggest that the compound continues to hold out, the extent of last night’s Russian advance into Azovstal is unclear. The battle for the plant is highly likely to prove costly for both sides. The renewed offensive on Azovstal is highly likely reflective of the effort to solidify Russia’s control over Mariupol in time for the 9 May celebrations, with a complete control over the territory very likely intended to be presented to the Russian public as a “victory”.
In other parts of Ukraine, airstrikes against infrastructure, in particular on railways, persisted on 4 May. Western intelligence, including the UK Ministry of Defence stated that Russia continues to strike non-military infrastructure across Ukraine in attempt “to hamper Ukrainian resupply efforts.” These latest statements are reflected in the high number of long-range strikes targeting railway infrastructure on 3 and 4 May, with Ukrainian media reporting last night shelling of the railway in the centre of Dnipro. A missile strike on a village of Trebukhiv, to the east of Kyiv was also reported yesterday evening, as well as explosions in Mykolaiv and Odesa. Targeting of Ukraine’s supply lines will remain a high priority for Russia, and as the series of strikes this week indicates, this trend is intensifying amid Russian attempts to disrupt western weapons shipments to Ukraine.
On 5 May, the Russian Ministry of Defence stated that Russian artillery strikes had killed over 600 Ukrainian fighters and destroyed “61 units of weapons and military equipment” overnight. The Ministry added that missile strikes had destroyed aviation equipment at the Kanatovo airfield in Kirovohrad and an ammunition depot in Mykolaiv.
Russia’s Ministry of Defence stated on 4 May that it had fired two submarine-launched Kalibr cruise missile against unspecified ground targets in Ukraine. The submarine was located at an undisclosed location in the Black Sea. The statement came amid the Ministry announcing Russian intentions to target NATO military equipment shipments to Ukraine suggesting that similar strikes by submarine-launched missiles may follow.
Elsewhere in the region, on 4 May, the Finnish defence ministry reported that a Russian military aircraft has violated Finland’s airspace. The development is in line with our previous assessment that Russia is highly likely to signal to Finland – as well as Sweden – against joining the alliance. Russia has previously threatened “military-technical measures”, which could take form of cyber attacks, aerial incursions and naval drills in the Baltic, if either of the states moves towards a NATO membership. Similar reports of Russian planes crossing the Swedish border near a naval base in the south of the country were also noted last week. As such, given that both countries have fast tracked their debates to join NATO, the incidents are likely to be reflective of Russia’s posturing, rather than a direct and imminent threat of a military conflict.
Lastly, a report by the New York Times highlighted the importance of intelligence provided by the US to Ukraine throughout the war. The report noted that with the help of the US intelligence, Ukrainian forces have been able to target and kill approximately 12 Russian generals, including the location of Russian mobile headquarters in Ukraine. Reportedly, not all strikes were carried out with US intelligence. Following the publication of the report, Adrienne Watson, a National Security Council (NSC) spokeswoman, said that US intelligence was not shared with Ukraine “with the intent to kill Russian generals,” likely in a bid not to escalate tensions with the Kremlin further. However, the statements a reflective of a deepening commitment to Kyiv, which will only aggravate Russia and reinforce the perception that the war in Ukraine is against NATO. This will likely also reinforce the threat of Russian strikes in western Ukraine near NATO borders.

Russia: Nuclear drills and end of Crimea transportation blockade likely to reinforce Victory Day posturing. On 4 May, Russia announced that its forces had carried out simulated nuclear strikes in the western Kaliningrad enclave, which borders European Union (EU) members Poland and Lithuania. The simulations underscore Moscow’s continued posturing in a bid to project power, having placed nuclear forces on high alert shortly after the invasion of Ukraine in late February. The drills are likely to further heighten regional tensions with the EU, though the prospect of conflict with NATO remains unlikely at present. Additionally, Russian officials in the occupied Crimea announced the end of the eight-year Ukrainian transportation blockade on the annexed territory and the upcoming restoration of freight and passenger services. Putin is likely to utilise these recent developments and the territorial gains in Ukraine to bolster his image domestically and declare some form on “victory” during the upcoming 9 May Victory Day holiday.

Eastern Europe: Russia-linked phishing against government and defence officials to continue in support of Moscow’s military offensives in Ukraine. On 3 May, Google’s Threat Analysis Group (TAG) disclosed that several Russian state-linked hacking groups are targeting Eastern European organisations with malicious cyber activity. For example, the Russian Advanced Persistent Threat (APT) group Turla is utilising phishing emails to compromise accounts linked to defence and cyber security organisations in the Baltics. Meanwhile, Google also observed the Belarusian state-linked group Ghostwriter, a key Russian ally, using phishing domains to exfiltrate credentials from a variety of “high-risk individuals in Ukraine”. While the end goal of these cyber operations is unclear, Moscow-linked cyber actors such as Turla or Coldriver are historically known to engage in intelligence gathering aimed at European states’ foreign and security policies. As such, these attacks are likely seeking to exfiltrate classified information about their targets’ security and foreign policy plans regarding Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. To this end, further phishing campaigns are highly likely to be launched in the coming weeks in support of Moscow’s military offensives in Eastern Ukraine. Ukrainian government agencies and international organisations supporting Kyiv’s operations, such as NATO, will remain the most at-risk for future Russian cyber attacks. (Source: Sibylline)

07 May 22. Diplomatic efforts seek to save Ukraine fighters in Mariupol, Zelenskiy says.

Summary
Diplomatic efforts to save Azovstal fighters
Ukraine fears Russia aims to wipe out Azovstal fighters
More civilians evacuated from bombed-out steelworks
U.S. Biden signs off on new weapons package

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said diplomatic efforts were underway to save the remaining fighters holed up inside the Azovstal steelworks in the city of Mariupol, as more civilians were evacuated from the bombed-out plant.

The defenders have vowed not to surrender. Ukrainian officials fears Russian forces want to wipe them out by Monday in time for Moscow’s commemorations of the former Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two.

Ukraine said 50 civilians were evacuated on Friday, accusing Russia of violating a truce intended to allow dozens more still trapped underground to depart after weeks under siege.

Mariupol has endured the most destructive bombardment of the 10-week-old war, and the sprawling Soviet-era Azovstal plant is the last part of the city – a strategic southern port on the Azov Sea – still in the hands of Ukrainian fighters.

Zelenskiy said in a late-night video address that Ukraine was working on a diplomatic effort to save defenders barricaded inside the steelworks. It was unclear how many Ukrainian fighters remained in the steelworks.

“Influential intermediaries are involved, influential states,” he said, but provided no further details.

United Nations-brokered evacuations began last weekend of some of the hundreds of civilians who had taken shelter in a network of tunnels and bunkers beneath the plant. But they were halted during the week by renewed fighting.

On Friday afternoon, 50 women, children and elderly people were evacuated, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said, adding that the operation would continue on Saturday. The Russian side constantly violated a local ceasefire, she said, making the evacuation very slow.

Russia confirmed the number of evacuees and said: “The humanitarian operation at Azovstal will continue on May 7.”

The city’s mayor estimated earlier this week that 200 people were trapped at the plant with little food or water. It was unclear how many remained.

Ukrainian presidential adviser Oleksiy Arestovych said Russia was trying to finish off forces inside the plant to seize it by Monday as a gift for President Vladimir Putin in time for the World War Two Victory Day holiday.

Putin declared victory in Mariupol on April 21, ordered the plant sealed off and called for Ukrainian forces inside to disarm. But Russia later resumed its assault on the plant. r

Asked about plans for Russia to mark the World War Two anniversary day in parts of Ukraine it holds, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said: “The time will come to mark Victory Day in Mariupol.”

Ukraine and its western allies say that after failing to seize the capital Kyiv, Russian forces have made slow progress in their revised aim of capturing the country’s east and south, but may also plan to involve Ukraine’s western neighbour, Moldova.

Mariupol, which lies between the Crimea Peninsula seized by Moscow in 2014 and parts of eastern Ukraine taken by Russia-backed separatists that year, is key to linking up the two Russian-held territories and blocking Ukrainian exports.

Moscow calls its actions a “special military operation” to disarm Ukraine and rid it of what it calls anti-Russian nationalism fomented by the West.

Ukraine and the West say Russia launched an unprovoked war and have accused Russian forces of war crimes. Moscow denies the allegations and says it targets only military or strategic sites, not civilians.

More than 5 m Ukrainians have fled abroad since the start of the invasion.

U.S. President Joe Biden signed a $150m weapons package for Ukraine on Friday, providing additional artillery munitions, radar and other equipment in the latest in a series of transfers to help Kyiv repel Russia’s invasion. read more

Biden and other Western leaders plan to hold a video call with Zelenskiy on Sunday, the White House said, in a show of unity.

The U.N. Security Council – including Russia – expressed “deep concern” over the situation in Ukraine, its first statement since the Feb. 24 invasion.

The most severe sanctions ever imposed on a major power have resulted in Russia’s $1.8trn economy heading for its biggest contraction since the years following the 1991 break-up of the Soviet Union. The European Union has proposed more measures.

But the new package of sanctions, which includes an oil embargo, has run into some opposition, with Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban likening that to an “atomic bomb” dropped on the economy.

(Source: Reuters)

06 May 22. Biden announces new $150m weapons package for Ukraine.

U.S. President Joe Biden signed a new $150m weapons package for Ukraine on Friday, providing additional artillery munitions, radar and other equipment in the latest in a series of transfers to help Kyiv repel Russia’s invasion.

“Today, the United States is continuing our strong support for the brave people of Ukraine as they defend their country against Russia’s ongoing aggression,” Biden said in a statement.

The United States has rushed $3.4 bn worth of armaments to Ukraine since Russia invaded on Feb. 24, including howitzers, anti-aircraft Stinger systems, anti-tank Javelin missiles, ammunition and recently-disclosed “Ghost” drones.

The new package will be worth $150 m and include 25,000 155mm artillery rounds, counter-artillery radar, jamming equipment, field equipment and spare parts, a U.S. official said.

Reuters was first to report the latest tranche of weapons.

The new transfers would come from the remaining $250 m in the Presidential Drawdown Authority, which allows the president to authorize the transfer of excess weapons from U.S. stocks without congressional approval in response to an emergency.

Last month Biden proposed a $33 bn assistance package for Ukraine, including more than $20 bn in military aid. Congress must approve the new funding package. House of Representatives and Senate leaders have said they want to move quickly, but have not yet said when they will vote on Biden’s request. read more

Biden urged lawmakers to work quickly, saying the latest weapons authorization “nearly exhausted” drawdown authority funding. “Congress should quickly provide the requested funding to strengthen Ukraine on the battlefield and at the negotiating table,” his statement said.

The United States has been training some Ukrainian forces, outside Ukraine, on how to use systems like the howitzers.

The new package was announced as Biden prepared to join other Group of Seven leaders in a video call on Sunday in a show of unity with Ukrainian President Volodomyr Zelenskiy a day before Russia marks its Victory Day holiday. read more

Russian President Vladimir Putin casts the war in Ukraine as a battle to protect Russian speakers there from persecution by Nazis and to guard against what he calls the U.S. threat to Russia posed by NATO enlargement.

Ukraine and the West reject the fascism claim as baseless and say Putin is waging an unprovoked war of aggression.

Ukraine and its allies say that after failing to seize the capital, Kyiv, Russian forces have made slow progress in their goal of capturing the country’s east and south but bombardments have affected more and more civilians.

Russia denies the allegations and says it targets only military or strategic sites, not civilians. (Source: Reuters)

06 May 22. Putin to send ‘doomsday’ warning to West at Russia’s WW2 victory parade. President Vladimir Putin will send a “doomsday” warning to the West when he leads celebrations on Monday marking the 77th anniversary of the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany, brandishing Russia’s vast firepower while its forces fight on in Ukraine.

Defiant in the face of deep Western isolation since he ordered the invasion of Russia’s neighbour, Putin will speak on Red Square before a parade of troops, tanks, rockets and intercontinental ballistic missiles.

A fly-past over St Basil’s Cathedral will include supersonic fighters, Tu-160 strategic bombers and, for the first time since 2010, the Il-80 “doomsday” command plane, which would carry Russia’s top brass in the event of a nuclear war, the Defence Ministry said.

In that scenario, the Il-80 is designed to become the roaming command centre for the Russian president. It is packed with technology but specific details are Russian state secrets.

The 69-year-old Kremlin leader has repeatedly likened the war in Ukraine to the challenge the Soviet Union faced when Adolf Hitler’s Nazis invaded in 1941.

“The attempt to appease the aggressor on the eve of the Great Patriotic War turned out to be a mistake that cost our people dearly,” Putin said on Feb. 24 when he announced what he called a special military operation in Ukraine.

“We will not make such a mistake a second time, we have no right.”

Putin casts the war in Ukraine as a battle to protect Russian speakers there from persecution by Nazis and to guard against what he terms the U.S. threat to Russia posed by NATO enlargement. Ukraine and the West dismiss the fascism claim as nonsense and say Putin is waging an unprovoked war of aggression.

The Soviet Union lost 27 m people in World War Two, more than any other country, and Putin has railed in recent years at what Moscow sees as attempts in the West to revise the history of the war to belittle the Soviet victory.

Beside the 1812 defeat of French Emperor Napoleon Bonaparte, the defeat of Nazi Germany is the Russians’ most revered military triumph, though both catastrophic invasions from the west left Russia deeply sensitive about its borders.

The war in Ukraine will cast a long shadow over this Victory Day.

Russia’s invasion has killed thousands of people and displaced nearly 10 m. It has also left Russia in the grip of tough Western sanctions, and has raised fears of a wider confrontation between Russia and the United States – by far the world’s biggest nuclear powers.

Although 11,000 troops marching across Red Square along with what the Defence Ministry has said will be 131 pieces of military hardware will present a grand spectacle, the Ukraine conflict has exposed weaknesses in Russia’s armed forces despite Putin’s attempt in his two decades in power to halt the post-Soviet decline.

The Kremlin has been denied a quick victory and the Russian economy – squeezed hard by sanctions – is facing the worst contraction since the years following the fall of the Soviet Union.

Less than two decades ago, U.S. President George W. Bush joined Putin for the May 9 celebrations in Moscow. This year no Western leader was invited, the Kremlin said.

The United States and its allies have ramped up supplies of weapons to Ukraine and Putin has faced calls from some in the Russian military to unleash greater firepower on Ukraine, two sources close to the armed forces told Reuters. Moscow has told the West that its arms supplies are legitimate targets.

Ahead of May 9, speculation swirled across Moscow and Western capitals that Putin was preparing some sort of special announcement on Ukraine, perhaps an outright declaration of war or even a national mobilisation.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed those suggestions on Wednesday, describing them as “nonsense”.

The Kremlin did not respond to requests for comment on what Putin might say in his speech, to be delivered from the Red Square tribune in front of Vladimir Lenin’s Mausoleum.

Last year, Putin jabbed at Western exceptionalism and what he said was the rise of neo-Nazism and Russophobia – trends he has returned to again and again when addressing the issue of Ukraine.

(Source: Reuters)

06 May 22. US shared intelligence before Ukraine sank Russian warship, official says.

Ukraine alone decided to target and sink Russia’s Black Sea fleet flagship using its own anti-ship missiles, according to a US official.

Alex Walters

6th May 2022 at 3:32pm

The US has said it shared intelligence with Ukraine about the location of the Russian missile cruiser Moskva prior to the strike that sank the warship.

But Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said in a statement on Friday that the US “did not provide Ukraine with specific targeting information for the Moskva”, although he acknowledged that the US and allies routinely share intelligence with Ukraine.

“We were not involved in the Ukrainians’ decision to strike the ship or in the operation they carried out,” he added.

“We had no prior knowledge of Ukraine’s intent to target the ship.”

An American official said on Thursday that Ukraine alone decided to target and sink the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet using its own anti-ship missiles – a high-profile failure for Russia’s military.

According to the official, the US has provided “a range of intelligence” that includes the locations of those ships, given Russia’s recent attacks on the Ukrainian coastline from the sea.

The Biden administration has ramped up intelligence-sharing with Ukraine alongside the shipment of arms and missiles to help it repel the Russian invasion.

Disclosure of US support in the Moskva strike comes as the White House is under pressure from Republicans to do more to support Ukraine’s resistance – with polls suggesting Americans question whether President Joe Biden is being tough enough on Russia.

The White House has tried to balance supporting Ukraine, a democratic ally, against not doing anything that would seem to provoke a direct war between Mr Putin and the US and NATO allies.

Military and intelligence support has been increased by the US, removing some time and geographic limits on what it will tell Ukraine about potential Russian targets.

The official said the US was not aware that Ukraine planned to strike the Moskva until after it conducted the operation.

(Source: forces.net)

06 May 22. Intensity of Conflict Creates Unprecedented Need for Weapons, Munitions. The intensity of conflict in the 21st Century and the need for weapons and munitions has been a learning experience for American defense officials working to supply Ukraine for its fight against Russia.

William A. LaPlante, the undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, said the need “really outpaces anything we’ve seen in recent memory.”

LaPlante spoke during a Pentagon news conference this afternoon. He said European allies are seeing the same situation and all are working together to get the Ukrainians what they need.

The United States is using several different funding vehicles to rush weapons and munitions to Ukraine following Russia’s invasion of the country on Feb. 24.

One account — the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative — is indicative of this need. Under this, the United States has sent $61.4 m in communications gear to Ukraine. Another $19.7 m went into Puma unmanned aerial vehicles, and $17.8 m went to Switchblade unmanned aerial vehicles.

It’s not all just weapons systems and munitions. Under the program, the Defense Department sent $2 m worth of binoculars to Ukraine, $1.2 m in meals and ready-to-eat rations and $4.9 m in medical supplies.

Many systems the Ukrainians have utilized against the Russians, like Javelin anti-armor and Stinger air defense systems, came from Army and Marine Corps war stocks. These stocks need to be replenished, and LaPlante said the goal is to ultimately replace the systems on a one-for-one basis where possible. (Source: Defense News)

06 May 22. Pentagon Press Secretary Statement on $150m in Additional Security Assistance for Ukraine.

Attributed to Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby:

Today, May 6, the Department of Defense (DoD) announces the authorization of a Presidential Drawdown of security assistance valued at up to an additional $150 m. This authorization is the ninth drawdown of equipment from DoD inventories for Ukraine since August 2021.

Capabilities in this package are tailored to meet critical Ukrainian needs for today’s fight as Russian forces continue their offensive in eastern Ukraine. The package includes:

(25,000) 155mm artillery rounds;
(3) AN/TPQ-36 counter-artillery radars; and
Electronic jamming equipment; and
Field equipment and spare parts

The United States will continue to use its available tools to help Ukraine defend itself. The United States has now committed approximately $4.5bn in security assistance to Ukraine since the beginning of the Biden Administration, including approximately $3.8bn since the beginning of Russia’s unprovoked invasion on February 24. Since 2014, the United States has committed more than $6.5bn in security assistance to Ukraine.

The United States also continues to work with its Allies and partners to identify and provide Ukraine with additional capabilities to defend itself. (Source: US DoD)

06 May 22. Poland accelerates new SHOARD effort in wake of Ukraine; are regional customers possible?

“We can see how important the air and anti-aircraft defense capability is” in Ukraine, said Poland’s defense minister. “Hence, we have significantly accelerated the deliveries of the Narew system to equip the Polish Army.”

When British giant MBDA and the PGZ-Narew consortium signed a late April agreement to work together on Poland’s homegrown Narew short-range air defense system, it was a major moment for a domestic Polish defense industry that can feel looked down upon by the Western powers.

But it also highlighted the simple fact that, after two and a half months of war in Ukraine, one of the biggest lessons is that SHORAD capabilities might be the difference between life and death — and Poland is paying attention.

The war between Russia and Ukraine “proved and underlined SHORAD and [air defense] capabilities have a great importance,” Tomasz Smura, Director of the Research Office of the Casimir Pulaski Foundation, told Breaking Defense. “Both countries have air defense sufficient to discourage the opponent to conduct air operations. Russians were not able to suppress Ukrainian air defense, what was best shown during a failed helicopter assault in the first days of war.”

Mariusz Błaszczak, Poland’s Minister of National Defense, didn’t beat about the bush when discussing the need for Narew to get up and running as quickly as possible.

“We draw conclusions from what is happening beyond our eastern border,” Błaszczak said in a statement during a press conference approving the contract for the supply of SHORAD elements under the Narew program. “We can see how important the air and anti-aircraft defense capability is. Hence, we have significantly accelerated the deliveries of the Narew system to equip the Polish Army.”

In fact, Błaszczak emphasized in “September this year the first fire unit of the Narew system will be used by the Polish army, and the second at the turn of the year,” an accelerated timetable from previous announcements.

The Narew system will be used primarily to engage multi-role aircraft, cruise missiles and UAVs operating on low altitudes, in order to protect Polish Armed Forces units, facilities and air bases. It will work as a compliment to the Wisła medium range air defense and anti-ballistic missile system — the Polish name for the American-made Patriot system whose delivery is planned to start this year.

Together the two systems are designed to create a national, all-weather, day and night protective net over Poland., integrated via US-manufactured Integrated Air and Missile Defense Battle Command System (IBCS). First demonstration of the integrated air defense systems is planned for 2026, and the government both systems will cost Polish taxpayers 80-100 bn zlotys ($18 to $22.5 bn).

Getting the integration taken care of is vital, as Ukraine also showed that SHORAD alone won’t protect the population of an invaded nation.

The Ukrainians “also suffer from lack of modern AD systems, capable of defeating Russian ballistic and cruise missiles used to destroy selected elements of military infrastructure and personnel. If Ukraine [had] modern air defense systems, a lot of civilian [casualties] in major cities could be avoided” Smura said.

The April 21 agreement means MBDA will provide its CAMM missiles for use on Narew, which is the most complex and largest contract in the history of the Polish Armed Forces. That missile is used on the UK Sky Sabre systems currently deployed in Poland to help protect its airspace.

According to the agreement, the first two Narew batteries will be delivered to the Polish Armed Forces – the first one by September 2022, and the second one around the turn into 2023 – as a gap-filling solution. Both units will be composed of elements from Poland (one redeployable multi-mission “Soła” 3D radar, fire control station, and three loader vehicles) as well as the UK (three vehicles based on the Jelcz 8×8 platform with iLauncher as well as number of Common Anti-Air Modular Missiles.)

Narew will be very first Western-manufactured AD system in Polish Armed Forces, and will consist of 23 SHORAD missile batteries. The contract includes the acquisition of a training and logistics package and support for the operation of military equipment is provided. Also signed as part of the deal is an agreement for three Miecznik-class frigates to be equipped with the naval variant of the Common Anti-Air Modular Missile, so it is possible the CAMM will be manufactured in Poland.

“That contract allows us to confirm the further schedule of integration work, the progress in which will determine how quickly we will be able to strengthen our country’s air defense. The signed document is also another step towards concluding a strategic agreement with our British partner in the production of launchers and missiles at our plants, that is crucial for the success of the entire Narew program” Sebastian Chwałek, President of the Management Board of PGZ, said in a statement.

Chris Allam, Managing Director of MBDA UK, added that “MBDA is proud to be part of such an important program for the protection of Polish skies together with our Polish partners from PGZ. […] We are already working to rapidly deliver the first systems to Poland as well as addressing the wider Narew program of technology transfer and Polish manufacture.”

Air Defense: A Regional Trend

The Narew system is going to replace the now-completely obsolete 2K12 Kub (SA-6 Gainful) mobile surface-to-air missile system and 9K33 Osa (SA-8 Gecko) mobile, low-altitude, short-range tactical surface-to-air missile system in the Polish Army as well as the Newa SC (SA-3 Goa) surface-to-air missile system used by the Polish Air Force.

Both the SA-6 and SA-8 systems are also in stocks of the other countries in the region, including Bulgaria, Romania, and Slovakia. And while Poland’s development of Narew fits into the broader regional desire for air defense options, Warsaw was actually somewhat behind the game in pushing for modernized air defenses.

“Many countries of the CEE and Baltic regions decided to increase defense spending and some of them, like Bulgaria, Estonia or Latvia, could spend money for acquiring new SHORAD systems to replace obsolete ex-Soviet systems or to improve air defense capabilities. First of them would be Slovakia, which has donated one battery of the S-300 air defense system to Ukraine, based on its request to help in self-defense due to armed aggression from the Russian Federation. And I think that market will grow,” Smura predicted.

Lithuania’s Ministry of National Defence and Norway’s Kongsberg signed a contract for procuring the NASAMS mid-range air defense system for the Lithuanian Air Force in October 2017. The €110 m ($116 m) package covers equipment for two air defense batteries and logistical maintenance package, as well as training for operators and maintenance personnel of the system was provided. Vilnius received two NASAMS-3 batteries in October 2020. The procurement has been coupled with upgrading the Saab RBS-70 short-range air defense systems in possession of the Lithuanian Armed Forces – the two systems will be integrated into the overall Lithuanian air defense shield.

The Czech government announced on September 2021 that it has signed an agreement to purchase four batteries of Israeli Spyder-MR short and medium range mobile air defense systems, developed by Rafael Advanced Defense Systems with assistance from Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI), in a deal worth $627 m. Delivery of the systems was scheduled to be completed by 2026. Spyder-MR will replace ageing SA-6s, in use by the Czech Army since the 1970s and the Czech’s are expected to operate the supplied systems for at least 20 years. Combined with spending for maintenance and repairs, the acquisition would cost the country about $1bn, according to a government statement.

In November 2020, the contract for the procurement of the NASAMS-3 system for the Hungarian Armed Forces was signed, as a replacement the SA-6. The value of the procurement was EUR 410 m. The first units of NASAMS will arrive in Hungary in 2023, while the system will be complete by 2025. The first fire unit should be operational by the end of 2024. Earlier, in August 2020, Hungary ordered 120 AIM-120C7 AMRAAMs and 60 AMRAAM-ER missiles. The AIM-120C7 missiles will also be used by Hungarian Air Force Gripen multi-role fighters, while AMRAAM-ER missiles will only provide the longer-range armament of the NASAMS-3 system.

Given the Ukraine situation and a push across NATO for more integrated air defenses, Narew could find a market if it is proven to be a successful, fairly inexpensive option.

“Maybe other countries in region would be interested in purchase of Narew, and integration of Poland and Baltic countries air defense would be very meaningful, both from operational and logistic sustainment point of view as well as will strengthen regional air defense capabilities, industrial sovereignty, know-how and collaboration between nations,” Smura stressed.

But right now, “I don’t think Polish defense industry will be capable to manufacture Narew for export customers in short term — producing all elements for 23 batteries for Polish Armed Forces would last a decade. And export of SHORAD systems would require huge support from the government in Warsaw. I think more likely will be export of CAMM manufactured in Poland,” he added. (Source: Breaking Defense.com)

06 May 22. Russian forces made another attempt on Friday to snuff out Ukrainian resistance at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to allow President Vladimir Putin to declare a battlefield success at a Moscow parade on May 9. Ukraine’s general staff said Russian troops supported by air strikes and artillery “resumed assault operations to take control of the plant”. Moscow began a mission on Tuesday to storm bunkers under the steelworks, which have become the last redoubt of the Ukrainian military in the strategically important port city. About 200 civilians, including woman and children, are still thought to be sheltering under the site. The UN said it had evacuated 500 people in total from Azovstal, the city and surrounding areas in recent days. Another attempt was under way on Friday to extract civilians, but fighting could thwart a rescue operation from the facility. Western and Ukrainian officials believe Russian forces have stepped up their attempts to seize full control of the Azovstal plant in order to deliver a military accomplishment for the Kremlin ahead of May 9, when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war. “The renewed effort by Russia to secure Azovstal and complete the capture of Mariupol is likely linked to the upcoming 9 May Victory Day commemorations and Putin’s desire to have a symbolic success in Ukraine,” British military intelligence said. But it added that the effort had come at a “personnel, equipment and munitions cost” to the invaders. Ukrainian troops — estimated to number between several and two thousand — are holding out in a warren of underground chambers and tunnels at Azovstal despite weeks of heavy Russian bombardment, including with bunker-busting munitions. Anton Gerashchenko, an adviser to Ukraine’s interior ministry, said Russian troops were trying to storm the Ukrainian positions using secret tunnels revealed to them by a factory electrician. (Source: FT.com)

06 May 22. Putin’s Red Square parade will be a squalid spectacle. The rest of the world must reject the Russian president’s attempt to annex the memory of the ‘Great Patriotic War.’ The writer is a former Russian minister of foreign affairs and author of ‘The Firebird: The Elusive Fate of Russian Democracy’ I grew up in Moscow believing that Ukrainians were people just like everyone else. I learnt that the call by the government of the Soviet Union for the people to rise up against Nazi Germany’s invasion in 1941 opened with the words “brothers and sisters”. That, of course, included both Russians and Ukrainians. The people did rise up, suffering gravely and contributing decisively to a final victory in the second world war, achieved together with the US, Britain and France. When, later, I worked in the UN department of the Soviet foreign ministry, I took pride in the fact that the Soviet republics of Ukraine and Byelorussia were founding members of that global organisation, along with the USSR itself. When the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, about 90 per cent of Ukrainians, including majorities in Crimea and Donbas, voted for independence in a referendum. I was proud to be a member of the Russian Federation government that honoured that choice. And it was my duty and privilege to design a structure for neighbourly relations between Russia and Ukraine, and in 1994 to write, together with US colleagues, the Budapest memorandum that provided security assurances to Ukraine. In exchange, Kyiv undertook to give its nuclear weapons to Russia and did so in short order. That personal background should help to explain why what has happened to Ukraine since 2014 matters so deeply to me. In March of that year, President Vladimir Putin used troops from the Russian military base in Crimea to annex the peninsula. This was a brazen violation of Russia’s obligations under the Budapest memorandum. Regrettably, America responded with a diplomatic reprimand and flimsy sanctions. Encouraged, Putin seized parts of Donbas. Again, the US and the west expressed disapproval, but practical measures were restricted to ineffective sanctions. (Source: FT.com)

06 May 22. Russian troops step up Azovstal assault in bid for Victory Day success. Kremlin targets steelworks as Ukraine’s forces make last stand in strategic city of Mariupol. Russian forces made another attempt on Friday to snuff out Ukrainian resistance at the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol to allow President Vladimir Putin to declare a battlefield success at a Moscow parade on May 9. Ukraine’s general staff said Russian troops supported by air strikes and artillery “resumed assault operations to take control of the plant”. Moscow began a mission on Tuesday to storm bunkers under the steelworks, which have become the last redoubt of the Ukrainian military in the strategically important port city. About 200 civilians, including woman and children, are still thought to be sheltering under the site. The UN said it had evacuated 500 people in total from Azovstal, the city and surrounding areas in recent days. Another attempt was under way on Friday to extract civilians, but fighting could thwart a rescue operation from the facility. Western and Ukrainian officials believe Russian forces have stepped up their attempts to seize full control of the Azovstal plant in order to deliver a military accomplishment for the Kremlin ahead of May 9, when Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in the second world war. “The renewed effort by Russia to secure Azovstal and complete the capture of Mariupol is likely linked to the upcoming 9 May Victory Day commemorations and Putin’s desire to have a symbolic success in Ukraine,” British military intelligence said. But it added that the effort had come at a “personnel, equipment and munitions cost” to the invaders. (Source: FT.com)

06 May 22. Finland to send additional defence aid to Ukraine.

Finland has been delivering defence materiel to Ukraine since Russia launched a ‘special operation’ on the country. Finland has decided to send additional military aid to Ukraine, amid reports that Russia had resumed cruise missile attacks on the country.

The move comes after Finnish President Sauli Niinistö approved a government proposal to send more defence materiel to the embattled country.

Details of the assistance were not divulged.

In a statement, the Finnish Ministry of Defence said: “To ensure that the assistance reaches its destination, more detailed information on the content, manner of delivery, or schedule of the assistance will not be provided.

“Both Ukraine’s needs and the resources of the Defence Forces have been taken into account when deciding on Finland’s additional assistance.”

Finland has been delivering defence aid to Ukraine since Russia launched a ‘special operation’ on the country.

The Nordic nation previously delivered a package of arms, rifles, and anti-tank weapons to Ukraine.

Finland Minister of Defence Antti Kaikkonen said: “Finland has supported Ukraine in many ways, including with defence materiel.

“Ukraine is in a great need for additional assistance. We will increase the amount of defence materiel assistance we send to Ukraine.”

Several EU countries and Nato member nations have been offering military assistance, as well as training, to the Ukrainian troops.

The UK recently announced a new £300m ($376m) military aid package for Ukraine. This will include night-vision devices, electronic warfare equipment, a counter-battery radar system, and GPS jamming equipment.

Reuters reported that Ukraine’s armed forces chief commander General Valeriy Zaluzhnyi said that the troops need multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS) in order to combat Russian cruise missile aggression.

(Source: army-technology.com)

05 May 22. Ukraine war could turn into Russia’s Vietnam, says Ben Wallace.

Conflict could transform from a ‘quagmire to a rout’ with a ‘collapse’ of Vladimir Putin’s troops, warns Defence Secretary

The war in Ukraine could be Russia’s Vietnam if it turns from a “quagmire to a rout”, the Defence Secretary has said.

Ben Wallace said that the strain of operating beyond its borders and the potential loss of public support at home could result in the “collapse” of Vladimir Putin’s, despite fielding far more advanced weapons than Ukraine.

Speaking in Finland during a visit to British troops on exercises, Mr Wallace said the war in Ukraine could result in a frozen conflict, like the Korean peninsula, or a military collapse – such as the US experienced in 1973.

“Vietnam lasted 15 years and led to the overwhelming defeat, the rout, of the biggest military power with highly advanced weapons over their enemy, because they had home advantage and public support,” he said.

“This could be a Vietnam. Armies reach a breaking point. If the Russians collapse like they did north of Kyiv, it could very quickly turn from a quagmire to a rout and the whole thing could collapse back into Russia.”

The suggestion that Putin’s anticipated lightning military success has become seriously bogged down was echoed by Aleksandr Lukashenko, the leader of Belarus.

Mr Lukashenko, one of the Russian president’s closest allies, said the war in Ukraine was dragging on and it was time to resume peace negotiations. However, he stopped short of criticising Putin directly.

“I am not immersed in this problem enough to say whether it goes according to plan, like the Russians say, or like I feel it,” he told the Associated Press. “I want to stress one more time, I feel like this operation has dragged on.”

Belarus has offered only half-hearted support for Moscow’s invasion and has not committed troops south of the border.

Hinting at suggestions that locals opposed to the war had taken action to slow the movement of Russian forces attempting to reposition to push into the Donbas region, Mr Wallace noted that Belarusian rail lines had developed the habit of “exploding”.

As fighting in the Donbas continued, a leading Kremlin official said there would be no Victory Day parade in the Russian-controlled territories of Donetsk and Luhansk on May 9.

Speaking in Mariupol, Sergei Kiriyenko, Putin’s deputy chief of staff, said it would be “impossible” to hold a parade but “the time will come and will come soon”, the Russian state-owned newspaper Rossiyskaya Gazeta said.

Mr Wallace said Putin could use the May 9 parade in Moscow “as a chance to broaden the fight” over Ukraine. Stressing that this did not mean Russia was likely to invade another country, the Defence Secretary said Putin might take the opportunity to say he was “defending the world against Nazis” and that his so-called “special military operation” was “now a bigger thing”, in order to mobilise Russian society. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

06 May 22. `Germany to send seven self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine. Germany will deliver seven self-propelled howitzers to Ukraine, on top of five howitzers the Dutch already pledged, German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht said on Friday. The training of Ukrainian troops on the artillery weapons can start next week in Germany, she told reporters in the Slovak town Sliac where she was supposed to meet her Dutch counterpart later today.(Source: Reuters)

06 May 22. Russian fighting destroys, damages nearly 400 hospitals, medical centres, Zelenskiy says.

Summary
400 hospitals, meidcal centres destroyed, damaged – Zelenskiy
‘Heavy bloody fighting’ in Mariupol – Ukrainian soldier
Mariupol evacuation attempt on Friday

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has devastated hundreds of hospitals and other medical institutions and left doctors without drugs to tackle cancer or the ability to perform surgery, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said.

Zelenskiy said many places lacked even basic antibiotics in eastern and southern Ukraine, the main battlefields.

“If you consider just medical infrastructure, as of today Russian troops have destroyed or damaged nearly 400 healthcare institutions: hospitals, maternity wards, outpatient clinics,” Zelenskiy said in a video address to a medical charity group on Thursday.

In areas occupied by Russian forces the situation was catastrophic, he said.

“This amounts to a complete lack of medication for cancer patients. It means extreme difficulties or a complete lack of insulin for diabetes. It is impossible to carry out surgery. It even means, quite simply, a lack of antibiotics.”

In one of the most widely denounced acts of the war, a maternity hospital was all but destroyed on March 9 in the besieged port city of Mariupol. Russia alleged pictures of the attack were staged and said the site had been used by armed Ukrainian groups.

The Kremlin says it targets only military or strategic sites and does not target civilians. Ukraine daily reports civilian casualties from Russian shelling and fighting, and accuses Russia of war crimes. Russia denies the allegations.

Pavlo Kyrylenko, governor of Donetsk region, said 25 people had been injured in intense shelling in the town of Kramatorsk, site of a railway station bombing last month in which more than 50 died. He said a total of 32 residential buildings had been damaged in the shelling.

Reuters could not immediately verify battlefield reports by Russia and Ukraine.

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” to disarm Ukraine and protect it from fascists. Ukraine and the West say the fascist allegation is baseless and that the war is an unprovoked act of aggression. More than 5 million Ukrainians have fled abroad since the start of the invasion.

Russia has turned its heaviest firepower on Ukraine’s east and south, after failing to take the capital Kyiv. The new front is aimed at limiting Ukraine’s access to the Black Sea, vital for its grain and metal exports, and linking Russian-controlled territory in the east to Crimea, seized by Moscow in 2014.

In the port city of Mariupol an estimated 200 civilians, along with Ukrainian resistance fighters, are trapped undergound in the Azovstal steel plant with little food or water.

The steel works was rocked by heavy explosions on Thursday as Russian forces fought for control of Ukraine’s last stronghold and the United Nations rushed to evacuate civilians.

President Vladimir Putin said Russia was prepared to provide safe passage for the civilians but reiterated calls for Ukrainian forces inside to disarm.

Putin declared victory over Mariupol on April 21 and ordered his forces to seal off the Soviet-era plant but not venture inside its underground tunnel network.

Ukraine’s stubborn defence of Azovstal has underlined Russia’s failure to take major cities in a 10-week-old war that has united Western powers in arming Kyiv and punishing Moscow with sanctions.

Clinging on desperately, Ukrainian fighters have reported fierce battles with Russian troops in Azovstal.

A Ukrainian fighter who said he was holed up in Azovstal accused Russian forces of breaching the plant’s defences for a third day despite an earlier pledge by Moscow to pause military activity to permit civilian evacuations. r

“Heavy, bloody fighting is going on,” said Captain Sviatoslav Palamar of Ukraine’s Azov Regiment. “Yet again, the Russians have not kept the promise of a ceasefire.” Reuters could not independently verify his account or location.

The Kremlin denies Ukrainian allegations that Russian troops stormed the plant in recent days.

Aerial footage of the plant, released Thursday by Ukraine’s Azov Regiment, showed three explosions striking different parts of the vast complex, which was engulfed in heavy, dark smoke.

Reuters verified the footage location by matching buildings with satellite imagery, but was unable to determine when the video was filmed.

Russia’s military promised to pause its activity for the next two days to allow civilians to leave. The Kremlin said humanitarian corridors from the plant were in place.

Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said on Thursday that people would be evacuated from Mariupol on Friday at 1200 local time (0900 GMT).

Sweeping sanctions from Washington and European allies have hobbled Russia’s $1.8trn economy, while billions of dollars worth of military aid has helped Ukraine frustrate the invasion.

European Union countries are “almost there” in agreeing the bloc’s proposed new package of sanctions against Russia, including an oil embargo, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said. r

The Kremlin said Russia was weighing responses to the EU plan. Ukrainian officials have warned that Russia might step up its offensive before May 9, when Moscow commemorates the Soviet Union’s victory over Nazi Germany in World War Two. (Source: Reuters)

06 May 22. For years, Dmitriy Sergeyevich Badin sat atop the FBI’s most wanted list. The Russian government-backed hacker has been suspected of cyber attacks on Germany’s Bundestag and the 2016 Olympics, held in Rio de Janeiro. A few weeks into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, his own personal information — including his email and Facebook accounts and passwords, mobile phone number and even passport details — was leaked online. Another target since the war broke out two months ago has been the All-Russia State Television and Radio Broadcasting Company, known as a voice of the Kremlin and home to Vladimir Solovyov, whose daily TV show amplifies some of the most extreme Russian government propaganda. On March 30, almost a million emails spanning 20 years of the broadcaster’s history were leaked on to the internet. The unveiling of their secrets was part of a widespread assault taking place in cyberspace, as Russian companies and government bodies were swarmed by hordes of pro-Ukrainian hackers, many of them new and previously unknown players to cyber-security experts. The result has been hundreds of millions of documents spilling out from targets as varied as Transneft, a huge oil pipeline operator close to the Russian government; Russia’s Ministry of Culture; Belarusian power supplier Elektrotsentrmontazh; and an arm of the Russian Orthodox Church that has backed the war in Ukraine. “Russia is being hacked at an unprecedented scale by a lower tier of attacker, and there are tens of terabytes of data that’s just falling out of the sky,” said Juan Andres Guerrero-Saade, principal threat researcher at SentinelOne, a cyber security group. (Source: FT.com)

05 May 22. Don’t Believe the Hype. The capabilities and performance of the Russian Army’s Repellent-1 may have been exaggerated by the system’s manufacturer. It has shown poor performance in the past regarding its ability to detect and jam UAVs.

Pity the poor Russian Electronic Warfare (EW) cadre. Things do not seem to be going well. According to oryxspioenkop.com Russian forces have lost eight EW systems in Ukraine since the war began. To exacerbate matters, Ukrainian forces killed Major General Andrei Simonov in early May. Maj. Gen. Simonov reportedly commanded the EW elements of the Russian Army’s 2nd Guards Combined Arms Army (CAA). The 2nd Guards CAA is thought to receive operational-level EW support from the 18th Independent EW Brigade. Maj. Gen. Simonov died near Izyum, 110 kilometres/km (68 miles) southeast of Kharkiv, eastern Ukraine. He is the ninth senior Russian Army officer killed by Ukrainian forces since the war began on 24th February.

There has been no let-up in the bad news for Russian EW cadres. Ukrainian news sources revealed that Ukrainian Army artillery had destroyed a Russian Army Repellent-1 electronic warfare system in late April. This was deployed in the vicinity of Kherson, southern Ukraine. According to uawardata.com, this is the 49th CAA’s area of operations.

Armada has seen official documents detailing the Repellent-1’s capabilities. We used MASS’ Electronic Warfare Mission Support Tool (EWMST) to get an idea of the system’s performance. The Repellent-1 detects Uninhabited Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) via their Radio Frequency (RF) links. These connect the aircraft to its Ground Control Station (GCS). This allows commands to be sent up to the UAV and imagery and other information gathered by the UAV to be shared. These links typically use frequencies of 2.4GHz and 5.8GHz. UAVs also depend on RF links to receive GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) navigation signals on frequencies of 1.1GHz to 1.6GHz. Frequencies of circa 900MHz up to 5.8GHz are utilised to transmit video imagery to the GCS or other users on the ground. Theoretically, all these links can be engaged with the Repellent-1’s jamming system.

Literature seen by Armada says that the Repellent-1 can detect and jam signals on frequencies of 200 megahertz/MHz to six gigahertz/GHz with between 200 watts/W and one kilowatt of jamming power. The literature claims a UAV’s RF signals can be attacked at ranges of up to 19 nautical miles/nm (35 kilometres/km). Up to twelve UAVs can be jammed simultaneously. Meanwhile, the documentation says it takes the Repellent-1 up to 25 seconds to detect and jam a UAV.

Rock the Party

Do these claims stand up to scrutiny? Using the EWMST Armada ran a hypothetical scenario. We positioned a Repellent-1 to the west of Kherson, southern Ukraine providing coverage over Russia’s western frontlines. In our scenario, we placed the Repellent-1 at Kherson International Airport. Local sources say that this is the base for the Russian Army’s 127th Separate Reconnaissance Brigade as of early May. This latter unit is part of the 22nd Army Corps.

For the scenario we assumed that the Repellent-1’s 14 metre/m (46 feet/ft) antenna is fully extended. The antenna is positioned on a Kamaz-6350 truck which is circa three metres (ten feet) tall. This gives the Repellent-1’s antenna a total height of 17m (56ft). Technically, the Repellent-1 should be able to detect and jam the RF signals of a UAV flying at 30,000ft (9,144m) at ranges of up to 222nm (411km). In reality the Repellent-1’s jamming range depends on the frequencies it is targeting, the jammer’s power and local topography. For example, buildings and elevated terrain can obstruct a jamming signal’s line-of-sight to its target.

We placed a UAV at 25,000ft (7,620m) altitude, 15.7nm (29.1km) northwest of the Repellent-1. The UAV’s pilot and ground control station were 40km (22nm) from the jammer. The Repellent-1 transmitted 1000W jamming signals on frequencies of between 200MHz to six gigahertz. The UAV and the GCS were linked with an unencrypted 2.4GHz signal.

According to our analysis at best there is a ten percent to 50 percent probability that the GCS-UAV RF link will be adversely affected by the jamming. In Figure-1 the area where jamming efficacy is likely to be between ten and 50 percent is depicted in red. The area where jamming efficacy is between 90 and 100 percent is shown in green. At most, the jammer can engage RF signals with 90 to 100 percent efficacy at ranges averaging 12 nautical miles (23km).

Turn up the Radio

What does this scenario tell us about the Repellent-1 and Russian Army EW capabilities writ large? In our scenario the Repellent-1 manufacturer’s claim of a 35km UAV jamming range seem exaggerated. Both the UAV and the GCS were outside the worst of the Repellent-1’s jamming even when the latter was at full power. Indeed jamming power seem to be the issue. When we gave the Repellent-1 a hypothetical nine kilowatts of power it could easily attack the UAV-GCS link. In fact, this jamming signal reached out to 22.7nm (40km).

If the manufacturer is exaggerating the Repellent-1’s capabilities, one wonders if the capabilities of other Russian Army EW systems are not similarly overplayed? If this is the case, it may explain why the apparent under performance of Russian Army EW systems has become a hallmark of this conflict.

Why the capabilities of Russia’s EW systems may be overstated is something of a mystery. Western manufacturers tend to publicly ‘down-tune’ their systems’ performance compared to what is actually possible. From a tactical point of view this makes sense. It helps to keep potential enemies guessing.

Is the manufacturer hyping the Repellent-1’s capabilities in the hope of winning export sales? Concerns regarding the Repellent-1’s performance have been expressed in the past. In 2017, Armenia procured a Repellent-1 system which proved powerless against UAVs used by the Azeri armed forces.

The Repellent-1’s apparent shortcomings can only be good news for the Ukrainian armed forces. It may mean that Ukrainian UAVs can get closer to Russian force dispositions when collecting imagery. Moreover, one EW system out of the fight is one less EW system to worry about. (Source: Armada)

05 May 22. UK troops exercise with Finnish allies amid Russian threats.

The UK Defence Secretary, who watched Exercise Arrow 22, says Britain would come to Finland’s aid, if attacked.

One hundred and twenty UK troops have been training alongside Finnish allies on Exercise Arrow 22.

The UK’s Defence Secretary Ben Wallace, who’s been watching the exercise, says it is “incomprehensible” that the UK would not come to Finland’s aid if attacked by Russia.

It follows Russian threats that any move from Finland to join NATO would mean “the destruction of the country” and lead to “undesirable consequences”.

The aim of the drills is to help deter Russian aggression while improving the ability of multi-national troops to work together.

Britain has provided 120 troops from the Queen’s Royal Hussars and 14 Challenger 2 tanks, embedded into a Finnish Armoured Brigade for the Joint Expeditionary Force event in Finland.

The UK has taken part in previous years but has never provided so many troops and tanks.

They help form a contingent of nearly 3,500 personnel, with allies from Finland, the US, Latvia and Estonia at Pohjankangas Niinisalo.

Major George Trypanis, B Squadron Leader, Queen’s Royal Hussars, told Forces News: “They operate in a different way to us, and so, over the last two days, we’ve been training together, ensuring that our signs and how we speak over the radio, we can understand each other.

“Also, they operate in this area a lot, so we’ve been learning a lot how to work in the wooded areas rather than what, probably traditionally, we know in Salisbury Plain.”

Queen’s Royal Hussars driver, Trooper Scarlet Martin said: “For me, personally as the driver, I’m learning more about the terrain and more boring things like that, about driving on a little bit of the snow at the beginning of the week, and the sand, and also just keeping an eye out for the Finnish infantry because they’re all scattered around the woodland area and it’s a quite dense forest around here.”

Finland has a border with Russia that is more than 800 miles long.

During the Winter War in 1939, the Soviet Union invaded the country, taking 11% of its territory and pushing the border further west.

The similarities with what is happening in Ukraine are hard to ignore.

Lieutenant Willy Lindberg, from Finland’s Kymi Jaegar Battalion, explained: “Russia’s always been our… biggest neighbour, and for a long time it was the biggest power for co-operation and trade.

“Of course, everyone is talking about it a bit more now, a bit more worried, it’s of course in everyone’s back mind, it is happening, and it is going on.” (Source: forces.net)

04 May 22. Japanese prime minister Fumio Kishida has used a visit to London to stress the importance of a resolute international response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in deterring potential future Chinese action against Taiwan. Kishida issued the warning following a meeting with UK prime minister Boris Johnson, who on Thursday also insisted there was a “direct read across” from recent events in Europe to East Asia. The comments from the two prime ministers highlight international concerns about Chinese intentions towards Taiwan and come after talks in early March between UK and US officials over how best to deter any use of force against the island. They will also fuel concerns in China that the war in Ukraine is promoting a more robust and united stance by US allies powers towards Beijing. “Ukraine might be East Asia tomorrow,” Kishida told a press conference at the end of his first trip to Europe since he took over as head of Japan’s government in September. “We must show there are consequences to the attack, to violence by Russia,” said the prime minister. A “resolute stance” on Ukraine would help ensure peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait, which was “fundamental to the stability of international society”, he said. “We must collaborate and never tolerate any unilateral attempt to change borders by force in East Asia,” Kishida said. Analysts in the region say there is no indication that Chinese major military action is imminent or planned for the near future against Taiwan, which Beijing considers part of its territory and has threatened to recover by force if necessary. However, the US is keen to boost co-operation with allies to raise awareness about what the administration regards as Beijing’s increasingly assertive attitude towards the democratically governed island. Japanese officials have over the past few years become much more vocal in public about such concerns. Some Japanese officials have privately worried that Chinese president Xi Jinping may interpret US president Joe Biden’s decision not to intervene directly in the Ukraine conflict as a signal Washington would not defend Taipei. (Source: FT.com)

04 May 22. DOD Leaders Say Training Ukrainian Forces Is Paying Dividends. Defense Department leaders said today that the training of Ukrainian forces by Joint Multinational Training Group-Ukraine has paid off as Ukrainians defend their country against Russian forces.

Ukrainian service members trained at the Yavoriv Combat Training Center in the Lviv region of western Ukraine right up until the Russian invasion in February. The most recent trainers were part of Task Force Gator, composed of the Florida Army National Guard’s 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team.

From the beginning of that training mission until January 2022, the 7th Army Training Command had trained a total of 23,000 Ukrainians in Yavoriv, said Army Brig. Gen. Joseph Hilbert, commander of the 7th Army Training Command.

In February, the U.S. European Command repositioned Task Force Gator to Grafenwoehr, Germany, where the unit continues to train Ukrainians on a variety of U.S. and NATO weaponry to enable them to defend their nation.

Training included antitank weapons systems, doctrine, operations and, importantly, the development of a competent noncommissioned officer corps, he said. He noted that NCOs who have been through the training can take the initiative and make tactical decisions based on their commanders’ intentions.

“The biggest mistake that the Russians made was giving us eight years to prepare for this ,” Hopkins mentioned.

Army Lt. Col. Jeremy “Todd” Hopkins, deputy commander of the 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team, said the goal of training is to get the Ukrainians back into the fight as quickly as possible and with the proficiency they need to operate weapons platforms that are being rushed into their hands by the U.S. and partner nations.

“They’re doing really well with the training that we’ve given them. And I’m very confident with their abilities as they go forward,” Hilbert said.

” soldiers are extremely competent and eager to learn the systems that we are providing them. … They’re absolutely focused on the task at hand and getting back to Ukraine,” he said. (Source: US DoD)

05 May 22. Bulgarian parliament approves military-technical support for Ukraine. The Nato member will not provide direct military aid to Ukraine. The Bulgarian parliament has passed a resolution to enable the government to provide necessary military-technical support to war-torn Ukraine.

The parliament also approved a plan that involves repairing Ukrainian heavy military equipment.

Despite this, proposals that included sending direct military aid to the embattled country did not win enough votes, Reuters reported.

Nato member Bulgaria is one of the few EU countries not to send defence equipment to Ukraine as the latter continues to battle Russian aggression.

It has condemned the conflict and has received more than 90,000 Ukrainian refugees.

In a separate development, Ukrainian neighbour and Russian ally Belarus has commenced a large-scale military drill. The drill will test the combat-readiness of the forces.

Belarus’ defence ministry said that the exercise is not intended to threaten its neighbours or the European community.

“It is planned that the [combat readiness] test will involve the movement of significant numbers of military vehicles, which can slow down traffic on public roads,” the ministry was quoted by Reuters as saying.

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has now entered its 71st day.

Russia has said that it will consider Nato transport carrying armaments for Ukraine as a military target.

Since the beginning of the invasion, Ukraine has been receiving weaponry from several Nato member countries.

British Prime Minister Boris Johnson recently announced that the government will send a new £300m ($376m) military aid package to Ukraine. The package will include night-vision devices, electronic warfare equipment, and a counter-battery radar system.

(Source: army-technology.com)

04 May 22. Russian forces have taken over internet infrastructure in Ukraine and rerouted traffic to Russia-controlled operators, making Ukrainians’ data vulnerable to interception and censorship by the Kremlin. As Russia has renewed its offensive on the southern Donbas region over the past fortnight, shelling and power cuts have caused the nation’s biggest broadband and mobile internet providers to lose connectivity across large swaths of besieged regions. A fibre optic cable in the city of Kherson was taken offline last weekend and rerouted to a separatist Crimean operator called Miranda-Media, meaning broadband data was directed out of Ukraine and into Kremlin-controlled regions, according to Ukrainian officials. The move mirrors the way telecommunication networks were usurped and data rechanneled in the areas of Donbas captured by pro-Russian rebels with Moscow’s support following the 2014 annexation of Crimea. Efforts to reroute data have alarmed internet governance specialists given Russia’s overt ambitions to instate a sovereign and centrally governed web. Control over the flow of internet traffic from besieged areas of the Donbas, they argue, could offer Russia access to a trove of Ukrainians’ personal data. (Source: FT.com)

04 May 22. Russian missile strikes targeted railway infrastructure across Ukraine on Tuesday night causing havoc across the network, in one of the biggest long-distance bombardments since Moscow’s invasion began on February 24. Russia fired 18 cruise missiles at eight regions of Ukraine, including the western city of Lviv where they destroyed or badly damaged three electricity substations powering the rail network, according to Ukrainian authorities. Ukraine’s air force said the missiles were mostly fired from bombers over the Caspian Sea. Several of them were intercepted by Ukrainian air defences. “In order to destroy Ukraine’s transport infrastructure, the Russian enemy fired missiles at facilities in Dnipropetrovsk, Kirovohrad, Lviv, Vinnytsia, Kyiv, Zakarpattia, Odesa and Donetsk oblasts,” Ukraine’s armed forces said. Nearly 50 trains were delayed by several hours following the attacks. Russia has stepped up missile attacks on railway infrastructure, including a strike last month on Kramatorsk railway station in eastern Ukraine that killed more than 50 people, and the targeting of five stations last week. Ukrainian officials said Tuesday’s attacks were aimed at disrupting the flow of weapons from the country’s western backers. Russia’s bombardment for the first time hit Transcarpathia, a region in Ukraine’s far-west on the border with Hungary. Fresh supplies of longer range weapons are crucial to helping Ukrainian forces counter Russian advances in the far eastern and southern regions of the country where Moscow has concentrated its efforts of late. Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky said in his overnight address on Telegram that with its multiple cruise missile strikes Russia was “trying to vent its powerlessness, because they cannot beat Ukraine”. (Source: FT.com)

————————————————————————-

Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company

————————————————————————-

NEWS IN BRIEF – UKRAINE CONFLICT

EXHIBITIONS AND CONFERENCES

VETERANS UPDATE

MANAGEMENT ON THE MOVE