28 Apr 26. Mali: Further territorial losses in northern Mali are likely as military prioritises southern defence. On 27 April, Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP) conducted a series of attacks around Menaka (Menaka region) and captured a military base at Labbezanga (Gao region) on the Mali–Niger border. The developments come as al-Qaeda aligned Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin (JNIM) and Azawad Liberation Front (FLA; a Tuareg secessionist militia) forces captured a series of northern towns, including Ber (Tombouctou region) and Tessalit (Kidal region). Except in the case of Labbezanga, the territorial gains were secured with agreements for Russian private military contractors (Africa Corps) to withdraw. The Africa Corps claims this was a joint decision with the Republic of Mali’s leadership. The developments appear to reflect a recognition of the increasing precariousness of state control in northern Mali, and a decision to prioritise securing southern Mali. This reprioritisation will likely enable further successful attacks on major towns and cities across northern Mali in the coming days, particularly within the territory claimed by the FLA as part of Azawad, including Gao and possibly Timbuktu (Tombouctou). ISSP will also likely attempt to exploit the deterioration of the Malian military, increasing the risk of an attack on Menaka, driving staff exposure to crossfire, kidnap and, at least temporarily, cutting off key supplies. Further territorial losses will compound criticism of President Assimi Goïta and increase the risk of a coup in the coming weeks.(Source: Sibylline)
28 Apr 26. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Cross-border attacks will undermine de-escalation efforts, elevate tension On 27 April, the Taliban government accused Pakistan of launching mortar and rocket attacks into Afghanistan’s Kunar province, killing four people and injuring around 70 others. According to Taliban officials, the strikes hit residential areas and Syed Jamaluddin Afghani University in Asadabad, with women, children and students among the casualties. Pakistan has rejected the allegations, describing them as ‘propaganda’, stating that any Pakistani strikes on Afghan territory would target militant infrastructure and would be publicly acknowledged. The incident marks a renewed escalation in cross-border tensions after the two sides had agreed earlier this month, through Chinese-mediated talks in Ürümqi (Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China), to explore a comprehensive solution to their conflict. Fighting had eased since those talks, although smaller clashes have continued. We assess that this development highlights the fragility of recent de-escalation efforts. There remains a realistic possibility of further cross-border fire in the short term, which will increase the risk of renewed clashes, civilian displacement along border areas, as well as elevated tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan.
(Source: Sibylline)
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