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23 Oct 25. Ecuador: Strike suspension, military deployments will reduce short-term domestic unrest risks. On 22 October, the Confederation of Indigenous Nationalities of Ecuador (CONAIE) announced the end of its nationwide strike. The decision comes after President Daniel Noboa authorised the military’s deployment to clear roadblocks, including on the Panamericana Norte E35 highway, while concentrating efforts in Imbabura province. CONAIE’s president Marlon Vargas has stated that the alliance decided to end the strike to ‘protect the lives of our people’. However, Vargas issued a series of demands, including the demilitarisation of Imbabura and the release of detainees. Since 22 September, CONAIE members have protested against President Noboa’s decision to remove diesel subsidies. Protests and clashes with the security forces have killed three people and injured hundreds more. Although it is unclear whether CONAIE intends to resume protests if its demands are not met, we assess that the maintenance of military deployments across Imbabura will highly likely deter protest action in the coming days. Domestic unrest and physical security risks will significantly decrease in the short term for emergency services and media personnel operating across Imbabura. Furthermore, ending the strike will decrease disruption risks for the extractive sector operating out of Imbabura. However, ethno-social tensions will remain elevated unless CONAIE’s demands are met. Violent unrest and clashes will possibly resume if President Noboa sustains military deployments in Imbabura in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Oct 25. North Korea: Missile tests possible ahead of APEC summit; unlikely to pose direct security threat. Earlier on 23 October, North Korea’s state-owned news organisation Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) announced that the authorities successfully tested two hypersonic missiles on October 22, representing a ‘new cutting-edge weapons system’. The missiles were reportedly launched from Ryokpho district towards the north-east of the country and landed within North Korea. This was North Korea’s first missile test since May and comes days before South Korea hosts the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Gyeongju (North Gyeongsang province) from 31 October to 1 November. Further provocative missile tests are a realistic possibility ahead of and during the summit. However, we assess that North Korea does not intend to initiate a conflict at present; consequently, any tests are unlikely to pose a direct security threat to South Korea. Meanwhile, speculation continues about a possible meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and US President Donald Trump during the latter’s visit to South Korea for the APEC summit. While a meeting is not necessarily likely, Seoul has not ruled it out. Even if the meeting were to materialise, we assess that a notable outcome is unlikely, as North Korea remains unwilling to consider denuclearisation. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Oct 25. US-Latin America: Military strikes in Pacific Ocean will sustain regional tensions, risk of land strikes. On 22 October, US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth announced that the US had conducted strikes on vessels suspected of carrying illicit drugs in the eastern Pacific Ocean. These mark the eighth and ninth known strikes against such vessels by the US military since 2 September, and the first made outside of the Caribbean Sea. On the same day, US President Donald Trump stated that his administration has the legal authority to carry out strikes on vessels transporting drugs near Venezuela but may seek to notify Congress before hitting any targets on land. This escalation indicates it is highly likely that the US will maintain an enhanced military presence across the region in the coming months. Trump is likely to utilise military strikes more frequently, alongside the threat of economic penalties, to pressure regional governments to increase their security operations. We assess that such pressure will be applied assertively to Colombia, Ecuador and Venezuela in the short term. Increased regional tensions and ongoing military activity will sustain elevated disruption risks for maritime trade operating across the region. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Oct 25. Russia: Expanded presidential powers over economy will increase regulatory framework risks. Media reports from 20 October indicated that the Russian Ministry of Finance has drafted legislative amendments to allow the president to impose currency restrictions via decree. As a result of the amendments, the president will be able to ban or limit certain payments, impose restrictions on the amount, timing or currency used in transactions and require special licences or reserve deposits. Presidential decrees will reportedly also define how these restrictions are enforced by federal agencies and banks. The bill expands presidential authority over currency regulation, further centralising economic power in the Kremlin and reducing the Central Bank’s autonomy. This development also likely reflects the Kremlin’s efforts to prepare the economy for a protracted war in Ukraine by strengthening the president’s ability to take emergency economic and financial measures. Ultimately, the measures will increase regulatory uncertainty for businesses; restrictive presidential decrees on currency control are likely to raise operating costs and complicate international transactions. (Source: Sibylline)
21 Oct 25. US-Australia: Critical minerals agreement will likely decrease supply chain disruption risks. On 20 October, US President Donald Trump and Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese signed a critical minerals agreement to counter China’s dominance in the sector (see Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 16 September 2025). Furthermore, President Trump also indicated his support for a strategic nuclear-powered submarine deal to strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific region. Under the critical minerals deal, each country will invest USD 1 bn into mining and processing projects and set a minimum price floor for critical minerals over the next six months. The White House statement did not specify which critical minerals or locations would be prioritised; however, it signalled that it would target deposits worth USD 53 bn. Subsequently, the US Export-Import Bank also announced that it had sent letters of interest to seven Australian firms to advance critical mineral projects. These investments will likely strengthen Western supply chains for critical minerals and reduce the vulnerabilities associated with Chinese export controls on rare earth minerals. In the long term, these investments will likely decrease supply chain disruption risks across sectors, including in aerospace, communications equipment, defence systems and technology (i.e. semiconductors), by reducing input costs and export compliance risks. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Oct 25. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Tensions, risk of attacks along border will persist despite ceasefire agreement. On 19 October, Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire. Afghan Taliban spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid announced that ‘neither country will undertake any hostile actions against the other, nor will they [Afghanistan] support groups carrying out attacks against the government of Pakistan’, with both sides refraining ‘from targeting each other’s security forces, civilians or critical infrastructure’. A follow-up meeting between representatives of the two countries will take place in Turkey on 25 October. The announcement follows talks in Doha (Qatar), mediated by Qatar and Turkey. The development comes after reported Pakistani airstrikes in the capital Kabul and Paktika province (both Afghanistan), as well as armed clashes along the border in the past week. Afghan Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoob has stated that issues regarding the Durand line (i.e. an international border recognised by Pakistan but not by Afghanistan) were not discussed during the ceasefire talks. A such, we assess that ceasefire violations are likely, with a realistic possibility of sporadic border clashes in the coming days and weeks, sustaining the risk of renewed hostilities. Additionally, given that Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) was not a party to the talks, militant activity by TTP will highly likely continue to target the security forces in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province (Pakistan), further driving tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.
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