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03 Oct 24. UK-Mauritius deal to protect national security – safeguarding the operation of strategic military base.
UK and Mauritius have reached a historic agreement to secure the strategically important UK-US military base on Diego Garcia.
- UK government agrees a deal with Mauritius today to settle historic sovereignty claims, protect our national security and close a potential illegal migration route
- deal ensures long term secure operation of the UK-US military base on Diego Garcia, a vital facility for maintaining international security
- agreement protects UK interests and those of international partners, with strong US backing
The UK and Mauritius have reached a historic agreement to secure the strategically important UK-US military base on Diego Garcia, which plays a crucial role in regional stability and international security.
For the first time in more than 50 years, the status of the base will be undisputed and legally secure, following a political agreement between the UK and Mauritius.
The agreement underpins the UK’s steadfast duty to keep the country safe, with the operation of the military base unchanged, in an increasingly volatile world.
The previous government started negotiations on the future of British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT)/Chagos Archipelago, but years after the negotiations began issues have remained unresolved.
The agreement is strongly supported by international partners including the United States, which has joint operation of the strategic military base.
Without today’s agreement, the long-term, secure operation of the military base would be under threat, with contested sovereignty and legal challenges – including through various international courts and tribunals.
The agreement demonstrates the UK government’s commitment to safeguarding global security and averting threats to peace and prosperity in the Indian Ocean and wider Indo-Pacific. It sees Mauritius assume sovereignty over BIOT, with the UK authorised to exercise the sovereign rights of Mauritius on Diego Garcia.
Foreign Secretary David Lammy said: “This government inherited a situation where the long-term, secure operation of the Diego Garcia military base was under threat, with contested sovereignty and ongoing legal challenges. Today’s agreement secures this vital military base for the future. It will strengthen our role in safeguarding global security, shut down any possibility of the Indian Ocean being used as a dangerous illegal migration route to the UK, as well as guaranteeing our long-term relationship with Mauritius, a close Commonwealth partner. Diego Garcia has also seen a small number of vulnerable migrants arrive since 2021, subsequently launching asylum claims. The agreement will shut down any possibility of the Indian Ocean being used as a dangerous illegal migration route to the UK, with Mauritius taking responsibility for any future arrivals.”
This week’s political agreement is subject to a treaty and supporting legal instruments being finalised. Both sides have committed to complete this as quickly as possible.
Background
- this week’s deal comes after 11 rounds of negotiations with the previous government and two rounds of negotiations with the current government, which began under the previous government in 2022
(Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
03 Oct 24. China-Taiwan: Deportation of Chinese citizens highlights elevated cross-strait tensions. Earlier on 3 October, the Taiwanese government announced that it had deported two Chinese citizens for harassing a protest. On 1 October (China’s National Day), Hong Kong exiles held a small rally in the capital Taipei. Chinese tourists reportedly tore down their banners and remarked that ‘Taiwan and Hong Kong are both part of China’ before the police escorted them from the scene. Taiwan’s Mainland Affairs Council pledged ‘immediate and strict action’ against Chinese citizens who engage in ‘illegal or irregular behaviour’. This comes one month after China sentenced a Taiwanese independence activist to nine years in jail, underscoring worsening cross-strait ties. On 1 October, Chinese President Xi Jinping stated that China must ‘resolutely oppose Taiwanese independence separatist activities’. There is a realistic possibility that events in Taiwan that support independence, Hong Kong’s autonomy and/or the governing Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will be disrupted by pro-China or pro-unification activists. We assess that further arrests and/or deportations of Chinese citizens will drive cross-strait tensions and possibly deter travellers. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Oct 24. Iraq: IS attack points to persistent security risks in rural Kirkuk; resumed clashes remain highly likely. On 2 October, Islamic State (IS) killed four members of the Iraqi security forces and injured three others in the Zagaitoun Valley (Kirkuk governorate). The Iraqi authorities stated that the security personnel were ambushed during a routine reconnaissance and inspection mission in the area. The development highlights the persistent security risks in Kirkuk as IS and other jihadist groups continue to exploit the security vacuum present in several rural areas. This vacuum is primarily due to the dispute between the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) over Kirkuk, which comprises areas where neither side exerts full control. As such, we assess that the risk of terror attacks in south and south-western Kirkuk will remain elevated in the coming months. Furthermore, Iraqi and Kurdish forces will likely augment their posture in the area in the coming days and conduct stop-and-search operations. This will elevate bystander risks in towns near the Zagaitoun Valley, as a resumption in clashes ultimately remains highly likely. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Oct 24. Defence priorities need to be reassessed in order to fix the SANDF – Kobus Marais. Amongst the many voices calling for military reform and a new defence review is former Democratic Alliance (DA) Shadow Minister for Defence and Military Veterans, Kobus Marais. Speaking at a recent African Dialogue series event hosted by the University of the Free State, Marais was clear that to address the many issues facing the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), it is essential that defence priorities are reassessed.
Marais noted that for years, the defence budget has been neglected, “and was systematically reduced in real terms to the current unsustainable 0.66% of GDP.” Viewing it as a short-term possibility, Marais believes the budget be increased to not less than 1%, “which is achievable and could provide an additional R20bn.”
“The 2% of GDP global military budget mean is not realistic and sustainable for us given the state of our economy. We must aspire to a 1.5% of GDP over the medium term,” Marais said.
Before addressing any concerns, Marais believes government and stakeholders must first acknowledge the existence of the problem. Further, the problems must be clearly defined, and understood. From there, “break it down, build it up”, and identify potential solutions. Marais views it critical that we “think creatively, out of the box, be pragmatic, push the boundaries, and consider different approaches.”
The SANDF’s doctrine is still largely still based on the pre-94 defence force, focused on what was developed and successful in Angola. “Is that the kind of conventional force we need or want?” he asked.
“Evaluate the possible solutions and assess which combination is most effective and thus desirable,” said Marais. However, potential solutions must be studied, and learnt from, with Marais saying stakeholders must “implement, monitor and amend.”
Marais urged Government to “decide on the force we require.” Amongst new priorities should first and foremost be South Africa’s national interests, with every decision made to support foreign policy and trade interests -, domestic deployments should only be used as a last resort. With these decisions made, Government must then commit to an “optimally resourced and funded defence budget.”
To move forward, Marais stated it is “imperative for political and management will, guided by the applicable principles and policies, to save our National Defence Force. To reform and rebuild it to where our citizens can be proud of it again, and our soldiers can be motivated to give their best, and to protect our country’s integrity and residents with pride and honour.”
Highlighting the failure to implement the Defence Review 2015, Marais states that “as a matter of urgency, its replacement must be completed first.”
A new, thorough and thoughtful review would “become the blueprint policy to government, including the Department of Defence (DoD), National Treasury, [and] all relevant government departments.”
The new review however, must “not be perceived as an ‘inside job’” and should include a “multi-disciplinary panel of experts and with experience and vison from outside the DoD, all with a passion commitment to a much-improved SANDF.”
The new credible and authentic Defence Review must have the full buy-in and support of the government, the South African defence industry, academia, experts, our international trading and foreign relation partners, the media and all South Africans.
The most important decision “is to determine what kind of defence we want, need, and can afford on a sustainable basis over the Medium term to Long term.”
“We must invest in new defence technology as force multipliers, as well as attend to the maintenance, upgrades and replacement of our essential strategic prime mission equipment and technology,” Marais concluded.
(Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
01 Oct 24. RoK unveils ‘monster missile’ at revived annual military parades.
- Annual Armed Forces Day parade revived since 2023
- Hyunmoo-5 capable of carrying 8-ton warhead, dubbed ‘monster’
- U.S. B-1B supersonic bomber joins for 1st time
- North Korea slams U.S. bomber flypast
- Some lawmakers question parade’s legitimacy and cost
South Korea showcased a ballistic missile capable of carrying an eight-ton warhead and featured a flypast of a U.S. bomber at military parades in Seoul on Tuesday, a show of force now held annually to signal readiness to respond to North Korean threats.
The Hyunmoo-5 missile, successfully tested last year, was displayed at the Armed Forces Day parade at a Seoul air base, involving some 5,300 troops, 340 types of military equipment and aircraft flypasts. Another smaller-scale parade took place in downtown Seoul, drawing thousands of spectators.
For decades such military parades had been held only infrequently in South Korea. But last year President Yoon Suk Yeol revived the tradition of holding them annually, in line with his “peace through strength” mantra.
Military officials have said Tuesday’s parade was partly intended to showcase South Korea’s military might as a deterrence to North Korea, which frequently stages parades featuring weapons such as intercontinental ballistic missiles.
The South Korean parade included a flypast by a U.S. B-1B strategic bomber for the first time, while the U.S. Eighth Army band and an armoured Stryker brigade also took part.
In a speech ahead of the parade, Yoon warned Pyongyang against using nuclear weapons and derided what he called its illegal military cooperation with Russia.
He also celebrated the launch of the Strategic Command, tasked with responding to North Korea’s weapons of mass destruction.
“If North Korea attempts to use nuclear weapons, it will face a resolute, overwhelming response from our military and the U.S. alliance,” Yoon said.
“That day will see the end of the North Korean regime.”
‘MONSTER MISSILE’
Dubbed a “monster missile” by South Korean media, the Hyunmoo-5 was a centrepiece of the parade, specifically designed to penetrate underground bunkers.
The military introduced them as the “ultra high-power Hyunmoo ballistic missile”, set on two nine-axle transporter-erector-launcher (TEL) vehicles.
The Hyunmoo-5 is categorised as short-range, but if topped with a one-ton warhead – typical for ballistic missiles – its range can exceed 5,000 km (3,107 miles), according to Yu Yong-weon, a lawmaker on the parliamentary defence committee.
Yoon’s office said the missile plays a key role in the country’s “three-axis” defence system aimed at neutralising the North’s nuclear provocations, including war plans that call for pre-emptive strikes if necessary.
Hours before the ceremony, Kim Kang Il, North Korea’s vice defence minister, criticised the B-1B’s planned flypast and also accused Washington of conducting a “reckless military bluff” by recently sending a nuclear-powered submarine to South Korea.
In comments carried by state news agency KCNA, Kim called for retaliatory measures, pledging to continue improving the country’s “powerful war deterrent”.
In Seoul, some opposition lawmakers and activists criticised Tuesday’s parade, saying it was reminiscent of past South Korean military governments and a waste of taxpayers’ money with an allotted budget of 7.9bn won ($6m) this year. Defence ministry spokesman Jeon Ha-kyu told a briefing the parade helped boost troop morale and stimulate defence exports, while serving as a deterrence against North Korea. ($1 = 1,318.3800 won) (Source: Reuters)
01 Oct 24. Nigeria: Further airstrikes will sustain collateral risks facing staff, assets in northern, central regions. On 30 September, the local authorities announced that a government airstrike on Jika da Kolo community in the north-western Kaduna state on 27 September hit a mosque, killing at least 24 civilians. The air force has since stated that the airstrike targeted members of armed groups, known locally as bandits, based on credible intelligence. Over the past five years, the Nigerian military has launched a series of aerial operations across northern and central regions to combat banditry; these frequently result in civilian casualties. In December 2023, a military drone attack killed 85 civilians in Tundun Biri village (Kaduna), the highest civilian casualty toll on record. With bandits primarily active in rural areas where there is minimal government presence, the military will continue to depend on aerial assets for the mobility necessary to strike bandit groups seeking to outmanoeuvre land units. We assess that continued strikes will sustain the latent risks facing bystanders (particularly NGO staff) and assets in rural areas of northern and central states. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Oct 24. Mexico: Armed forces’ seizure of Sinaloa police weapons has elevated risk of attacks. On 30 September, the armed forces seized the weapons of the municipal police of Culiacán (Sinaloa state). The weapons ‘inspection’ ostensibly assesses whether the arms are in good and safe working condition. Yet the military has previously confiscated municipal police forces’ weapons over concerns of corruption and/or suspicions that police officers use unregistered sidearms (which makes is difficult to trace abuses). Sinaloa state Governor Rubén Rocha announced that the municipal police force (numbering over 1,000 officers) will not return to active duty until the armed forces return the weaponry. The military’s action comes amid the ongoing violence in Sinaloa state being carried out by rival factions of the Sinaloa Cartel (CDS). Since 9 September, over 100 people have died as a result of cartel clashes and violence. While the inspection is ongoing, we assess that risks pertaining to the efficacy of the security forces will be significantly increased, elevating the likelihood of further attacks, clashes, looting and robbery. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Oct 24. China-Vietnam: Paracel Islands will remain flashpoint following reported attack on Vietnamese vessel. On 30 September, Vietnamese state media reported that a Vietnamese fishing vessel near the disputed Paracel Islands in the South China Sea was attacked on 29 September. At least ten Vietnamese fishermen were reportedly injured, as the crew were allegedly beaten with pipes. Later reports claimed two foreign vessels and 40 individuals were behind the attack. The Paracel Islands are claimed by both China and Vietnam but are administered by China. No officials from either country have commented on the incident. Both sides appear intent on advancing bilateral relations; local media outlets have not disclosed the attacking ships’ suspected country of origin. On 30 September, Vietnamese Minister of Industry and Trade Nguyen Hong met with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng and reportedly called for more economic and trade co-operation. Despite the close trade ties between China and Vietnam, any further clashes around the Paracel Islands would likely drive bilateral tensions. In this scenario (and if any such clashes were serious enough), we assess there would be a realistic possibility of anti-China demonstrations in Vietnam (as there were in 2014). (Source: Sibylline)
01 Oct 24. Iraq-US: Rocket attack underscores regional tensions; resumption of sustained IRI activity is unlikely. Earlier on 1 October, unknown assailants fired at least two Katyusha rockets at areas near Baghdad International Airport (BGW). Although several reports suggest that they targeted a US military base, the US has since stated that all US military personnel have been accounted for, and that no injuries have been reported. There is a realistic possibility the attack was conducted by the Iran-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI), which has previously targeted US troops and assets in Iraq in response to the Israel-Hamas war. Developments in the ongoing Israel-Hizballah war will likely drive further strikes on US assets in Iraq, though these are unlikely to be carried out on a frequent basis, at least in the short term. This will moderate security risks for personnel near US bases and reduce the threats to proximate business operations. However, an uptick in anti-Western sentiment is highly likely throughout Iraq in the days approaching the anniversary of Hamas’ 7 October 2023 attack against Israel. As such, there is a realistic possibility of a resumption of attacks targeting Western-affiliated businesses in the capital Baghdad. We assess this will elevate bystander risks for those near targeted businesses and reduce footfall for Western companies. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Sept 24. DOD Enhances Middle East Defense Posture.
The Defense Department has taken steps to further enhance the defense posture of U.S. forces throughout the Middle East region to deter aggression and mitigate the risk of a broader regional conflict, the Pentagon announced over the weekend.
The announcement comes as tensions in the region have heightened following Israel’s targeted assassination of terror group Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah in Lebanon on Friday.
Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III spent the weekend providing guidance to his team and receiving updates on developments in the Middle East, according to a statement issued Sunday by Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder.
“Secretary Austin stressed that the United States is determined to prevent Iran and Iranian-backed partners and proxies from exploiting the situation or expanding the conflict,” the statement reads.
“Austin made clear that should Iran, its partners, or its proxies use this moment to target American personnel or interests in the region, the United States will take every necessary measure to defend our people,” the statement continues.
The measures DOD is taking include ordering the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group to remain in the U.S. Central Command area of operations past its regular rotation date; reinforcement of U.S. air defense capabilities; and using U.S. forces rotating into the region to augment rather than replace forces already there, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told the media today.
“Secretary Austin and department leaders remain focused on the protection of U.S. citizens and forces in the region, the defense of Israel and the de-escalation of the situation through deterrence and diplomacy,” Singh said.
Though not able to get into specific timelines and numbers due to operational security concerns, Singh said that some of the augmented forces being sent to the region include F-16, F-15E and F-22 fighter aircraft, as well as A-10 attack aircraft and associated personnel.
“The secretary also increased the readiness of additional U.S. forces to deploy, elevating our preparedness to respond to various contingencies,” Singh said.
“And DOD maintains robust and integrated air defense capabilities across the Middle East … ensuring the protection of U.S. forces in the region,” she added.
When asked whether the Defense Department has any direct knowledge of a retaliatory attack on Israel by Iran and/or Hezbollah, Singh said that, though DOD isn’t aware of any specific plans, it’s important to take all the rhetoric coming from Iran seriously.
“That’s something we’re watching incredibly closely; whether it be a response from Iran, from Hezbollah … the proxy groups in Iraq and Syria,” Singh said, adding that concern about such a response is the driving force behind the decision to bolster the U.S. force posture in the region.
“We take that rhetoric very seriously,” Singh said, “and we believe that we have the capability in the region to defend our forces and — of course, if needed — to come to the defense of Israel.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
30 Sept 24. Russia plans to raise its spending on defence by a quarter in 2025, underscoring President Vladimir Putin’s determination to continue his invasion of Ukraine and intensify confrontation with the west. The finance ministry has earmarked a record Rbs13.5tn ($145bn) for next year, according to draft budget documents published on Monday, compared to this year’s figure of Rbs10.8tn. The 2025 budget indicates Putin has decided to double down on the “military Keynesianism” that has helped supply the front in Ukraine with weapons, fuelled a consumer spending boom, and left officials to warn of rising inflation and labour shortages. “The bureaucrats last year had to pretend that the ‘special operation’ will be over swiftly, which is clearly no longer the case. The pretence is off now,” said Elina Ribakova, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. “The gloves are off. They don’t feel they need to pretend any more that there could be a return to normalcy anytime soon.” Despite widespread expectations in western capitals and Moscow that sanctions would cripple Russia’s economy, gross domestic product grew by 3.6 per cent last year and is forecast at around the same levels for 2024. The rise in military spending smashes the record Russia set last year and comes despite expectations the wartime splurge would be a one-off. Defence spending is expected to fall slightly to Rbs12.8tn in 2026 and Rbs13.1tn a year later. Other spending on “security”, of about Rbs3.5tn on average over the next three years, means Russia’s total expenditures in the sector are even higher, taking total spending on defence and security to about 40 per cent of the budget. The finance ministry offered almost no explanation for the rise, saying only that “significant funds have been earmarked to ensure the tasks [of the invasion] are achieved”. It said the resources, whose details are largely classified from public view, would go to arming the military, paying salaries, and supporting the defence sector. (Source: FT.com)
30 Sep 24. Japan: Almost certain snap election in October will drive government stability, policy risks. Earlier on 30 September, Shigeru Ishiba, the new president of the governing Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), stated that ‘it is important for the new administration to be judged by the people as soon as possible’. In August, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida resigned after a slush fund scandal led to a decline in support for the LDP. Ishiba will almost certainly replace Kishida as prime minister on 1 October following a vote in parliament. The LDP-led coalition currently holds a majority. He will reportedly dissolve the lower house on 9 October and hold a snap general election on 27 October. This would provide an opportunity for Ishiba to build a public mandate following a historically close LDP leadership election on 27 September. The main opposition party, the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP), is led by former prime minister Yoshihiko Noda. We assess the LDP will likely continue to lead the government following the elections despite falling approval ratings as the fragmented opposition parties typically struggle to co-operate fully. However, its ability to win 233 out of 465 seats to attain a lower-house majority by itself (or an ‘absolute stable majority’ of 261 that allows it to control parliamentary committees) is uncertain, driving policy and government stability risks. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Sep 24. Russia: Latest thwarted terror plots underscore persistent threats in restive North Caucasus. Earlier on 30 September, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) reported that it had prevented a series of ‘terrorist crimes’ in the Muslim-majority Republic of Ingushetia. The agency said it had thwarted the plans of eight locals to sabotage energy infrastructure in the region and attack law enforcement officers. According to the FSB, one of the would-be perpetrators tried to resist arrest using unspecified weapons but was killed. The authorities claimed that they identified a homemade explosive device, a grenade launcher, grenades, machine guns, pistols and other paraphernalia at their addresses and hiding places. Although the FSB did not offer a possible motive for the intended attacks, we assess that the latest development was highly likely an Islamist terror plot. Russia has suffered two major terror attacks this year, including in the Republic of Dagestan – another Muslim-majority republic in the North Caucasus (see Sibylline Alert – 24 June 2024). We assess that this latest development underscores enduring Islamist terror threats in Russia’s volatile North Caucasus region despite the authorities’ frequent reporting of thwarting planned attacks. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Sep 24. Moldova: Pro-Russia actors raise stability risks by using bribery, vandalism to destabilise key votes. On 29 September, Moldovan Infrastructure Minister Andrei Spînu urged caution after pro-Russia oligarch and politician Ilan Șor promised to pay citizens who vote against EU membership at a referendum next month. Meanwhile, actors vandalised several buildings belonging to state and public institutions in the Moldovan capital Chișinău on 27-28 September. The authorities claimed they had detained several people who were trained in Russia to attack state institutions. We assess that this is highly likely credible given Russia was previously accused of orchestrating a graffiti campaign in France, in the capital Paris, last autumn. Ultimately, the events clearly reflect that pro-Russia forces are increasing their destabilisation operations in Moldova ahead of the presidential election and EU referendum on 20 October, as we previously correctly assessed. We assess that Hoax ‘bomb’ threats, increased hostile rhetoric from pro-Russia regions and mis- and dis-information campaigns will also likely represent key indicators of increased Russian destabilisation tactics in the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Sep 24. Haiti-US: US moderates its position on UN peacekeeping operation, sustaining physical security risks. According to reports on 29 September, the US toned down its support for transitioning the UN-backed Multinational Security Support (MSS) mission to Haiti into a UN Peacekeeping mission. Later on 30 September, the UN Security Council will vote on the renewal of the MSS’ mandate, set to expire after 12 months on 2 October. The MSS, which began deployment in June, has had minimal success in reducing widespread gang violence in the capital Port-au-Prince; approximately 700,000 people are internally displaced within Haiti. Furthermore, between 26 and 29 September, the maritime port in the capital closed all land access to its site due to attacks by armed groups. The UN will likely renew the MSS’ mandate in the coming days. However, we assess that the MSS is unlikely to significantly reduce violence over the next six months, sustaining attacks, security forces and human rights risks. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Sept 24. Indian and Chinese warships heading to South Africa. Indian and Chinese naval vessels are en route to South Africa ahead of the Navy Festival in Cape Town later this week and Exercise Ibsamar further in the month. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Navy is sending the frigate CNS Xuchang to participate in the Navy Festival in Simons Town between 4 and 6 October, Chinese defence spokesperson Zhang Xiaogang said during a recent press conference.
The vessel will take part in a fleet review and an open day where members of the public will be able to interact with the vessel and its crew. In addition to the festival activities, the frigate will also engage in joint maritime exercises with the South African Navy, Xiaogang said.
The Type 054A frigate Xuchang visited Cape Town in May this year on a technical stop whilst attached to the 46th Chinese naval escort taskforce operating in the Gulf of Aden region. During its stay, the frigate replenished oil, water, and food, and allowed sailors to rest.
More recently, the PLA Navy hospital ship, Peace Ark, arrived in Cape Town on 22 August for a week-long visit, providing medical services for 3 700 visitors and successfully performing surgeries such as uterine fibroid removal and cataract restoration.
The recent visits reflect the growing military ties between China and South Africa, and align with China’s broader strategy of expanding its naval presence and influence globally, particularly in Africa.
The Indian Navy, meanwhile, is sending its stealth frigate INS Talwar to the southern tip of Africa. It arrived in Mombasa, Kenya, on 22 September. “The visit aims to strengthen ties further and reaffirm India’s commitment to constructive collaboration and mutual growth,” the Indian Navy said.
“India and Kenya share a strong bond built on a foundation of centuries-old historical ties. As geographic neighbours linked by the Indian Ocean, the two nations cherish a natural partnership, further strengthened over the years by regular high-level visits, increasing trade and investment, and extensive people-to-people contact,” the Indian Navy added.
INS Talwar is expected to take part in Exercise Ibsamar (India-Brazil-South Africa Maritime Exercise) 2024, which will run from 7 to 16 October with Saldanha port and associated SA Navy facilities in the Western Cape west coast harbour town set to host South African and visiting warships.
Brazil did not send a warship for the last Exercise Ibsamar in 2022, but it is not clear what the South American nation’s participation will look like this time around. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
30 Sept 24. U.S. Airstrikes Kill 37 Militants in Syria, Targeting ISIS and al-Qaeda Affiliates. The U.S. military reported that two airstrikes in Syria this month killed a total of 37 militants affiliated with the Islamic State (ISIS) and an al-Qaeda-linked group, Hurras al-Deen. The strikes targeted extremist training camps and key leaders, significantly disrupting the operations of these groups, according to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM).
The first airstrike took place on September 16 and targeted an ISIS training camp in a remote part of central Syria. According to CENTCOM, this large-scale strike killed at least 28 ISIS operatives, including four senior leaders. The strike was intended to weaken ISIS’s ability to conduct operations against U.S. interests, allies, and partners in the region.
The second airstrike occurred on September 24 in northwestern Syria and specifically targeted members of Hurras al-Deen, an al-Qaeda-affiliated group. This strike killed nine fighters, including a senior leader, Marwan Bassam ‘Abd-al-Ra’uf, who was responsible for overseeing military operations from Syria.
CENTCOM highlighted that these strikes have dealt a significant blow to ISIS and Hurras al-Deen, both of which have tried to regain influence in Syria. By eliminating key leaders and fighters, the U.S. aims to hinder the groups’ ability to plan and execute attacks. The U.S. military stated that such operations are part of an ongoing effort to prevent these groups from re-establishing a foothold in Syria, particularly in areas they once controlled.
There are currently around 900 U.S. troops stationed in Syria, along with an undisclosed number of contractors. The U.S. forces are primarily focused on advising and assisting the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces in northeastern Syria to prevent a resurgence of ISIS.
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27 Sept 24. Inherent Resolve Mission in Iraq and Syria Transitioning. A decade ago, the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria had taken vast swathes of Syria and Northern Iraq and was knocking on the door of Baghdad when a multinational effort slammed that door and defeated the terror group.
Now that effort is changing, said U.S. officials speaking on background.
ISIS is a particularly vicious group, and its terrorists committed many atrocities on their way into power. The Iraqi government called for help and nations around the world responded and formed the U.S.-led Combined Joint Task Force-Operation Inherent Resolve. “This coalition with more than 30 contributing nations has made historic achievements, including the territorial defeat of ISIS in Iraq in 2017 and in Syria in 2019,” said a senior administration official on background.
Still, ISIS “is down, but not out” and the group remains a threat in the region and beyond.
Now, after 10 years, this construct is transitioning.
“The United States and Iraq have decided on a two-phase transition plan for CJTF-OIR operations in Iraq,” the official said.
In the first phase, the coalition’s military mission in Iraq will end. This means coalition forces will withdraw from certain locations in Iraq as mutually determined. The transition period in Iraq begins now and will end in September 2025.
However, the coalition nations and Iraq recognize that ISIS in Syria remains a significant threat to the region and pledged to continue working to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS. The second phase looks to prevent the return of the ISIS terrorist threat in Syria. Iraq will allow the coalition “to continue to support counter-ISIS operations in Syria from Iraq throughout the second phase of the transition until at least September 2026, subject to conditions on the ground and, obviously, consultations among future political leaders of Iraq and the United States,” the official said.
The official, and a colleague from DOD, emphasized that the United States and Iraq are moving towards the type of long-term security relationships the United States has with partners around the world. “To be clear, the United States is not withdrawing from Iraq,” the administration official said. “This announcement comes after a decade of success from extraordinary international … cooperation between coalition partners, Iraqi security forces and the U.S. military and territorially defeating ISIS and in the core regions of Iraq and Syria.”
The coalition is still needed, the senior defense official said. ISIS is looking to reestablish itself in the region and establish groups in Afghanistan and Africa. The coalition must remain vigilant and ready to respond, the official said.
The United States will stay connected with Iraq as this process transitions. “We intend to stay connected in an advise and assist capacity with the counterterrorism services, the Joint Operations Command, the Air Force and the Kurdish Peshmerga, all of whom play a very important role in conducting counter-ISIS missions,” the senior defense official said. “Until the coalition military mission in Iraq concludes, those types of partnered activities, can certainly continue. Beyond that, we will continue to discuss with Iraq — in the bilateral context — how we can continue to advise and assist and enable them in conducting necessary and counterterrorism operations beyond that period.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
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