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01 Mar. 24. UK Armed Forces Minister visits Kenya and Somalia to strengthen defence ties. The Minister for the Armed Forces visited East Africa this week to discuss regional security with defence leaders. The UK’s Minister for the Armed Forces has concluded a visit to Somalia and Kenya, meeting senior leaders and defence officials for discussions on strengthening regional defence cooperation and observing exercising troops.
Visiting Mogadishu, the Armed Forces Minister met with Somali President His Excellency Hassan Sheikh Mohamud, to reaffirm the UK’s commitment to supporting Somalia’s long-term security. He also visited British soldiers delivering training to the Somali Security Forces and discussed the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) with the UN Special Representative to the Secretary General. ATMIS has supported the drawdown of African Union peacekeeping operations in Somalia, to transition to the Somali national armed forces.
The UK has been working closely with the Federal Government of Somalia in its efforts to counter the extremist group al-Shabaab and the Minister reiterated the UK’s enduring support to tackling the threat posed by the group.
The Minister continued his visit by conducting meetings in Kenya, including with Cabinet Secretary for Defence Aden Duale. They discussed an ambitious vision for strengthening the defence partnership, enhancing Kenyan military capacity and promoting regional peace through the UK and Kenya’s Defence Cooperation Agreement.
Minister for the Armed Forces, James Heappey, said: “Our defence relationships in Africa are paramount to supporting the security and safety of the region. In a more dangerous world, it is critical we support our partners in developing their capabilities, through training and engagement between our armed forces, in order to respond to threats. In my meetings with the President of Somalia and Kenyan Cabinet Secretary for Defence, I emphasised the UK’s enduring interest in deepening our defence relationships and discussed ways in which we can deepen our support.
Jointly with the US and Kenya, the UK also supports the development and operation of the Counter Insurgency Counter Terrorism and Stabilisation Operations Centre project (CITSO), which is due to commence delivery of training later this year. The Minister visited the project, which will build on international efforts to improve regional security, through a multi-agency approach to joint training.”
Minister Heappey also attended a US-led and UK supported regional training exercise including troops from across East Africa conducting readiness training and preparing for regional and international missions. He also visited a joint training exercise between UK trained Kenya Marines and the Royal Marines. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
29 Feb 24. Indian committee OKs $4bn buy of BrahMos missiles, more tech. The Indian government is closer to buying a multibillion-dollar package of cruise missiles, air defense weapons, surveillance radars and fighter jet engines following approval from the country’s highest decision-making body on security affairs.
At a Feb. 21 meeting, the Cabinet Committee on Security approved the four procurement projects cumulatively worth about 350bn rupees (U.S. $4bn).
According to local media reports quoting government sources, the approved items were BrahMos cruise missiles for the Navy, air defense guns for the Army, ground-based air surveillance radars and new engines for the Air Force’s MiG-29 fighters.
Approval by the committee, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi chairs, is a necessary step along the Defence Ministry’s contractual pathway.
Local media reported the BrahMos missile deal would be signed in March. The consolidated contract would include some 220 weapons to arm Indian frigates and destroyers — the largest-ever individual BrahMos order for India.
The contract will reportedly involve a mix of standard 290-kilometer-range (180-mile-range) and extended 450-kilometer-range (280-mile-range) BrahMos missiles, of which 75% is locally made.
“The BrahMos is expected to considerably enhance the potential for surface-to-surface attacks by Indian Navy ships, especially with extended-range missiles,” Rahul Bhonsle, a director of the New Delhi-based consultancy Security Risks Asia, told Defense News.
India is also exporting BrahMos missiles to the Philippines under a deal worth about $375m signed in January 2022. Atul Rane, who leads the missile manufacturer BrahMos Aerospace, said last year the company has set a goal of exporting $5n worth of BrahMos weapons by 2025.
The committee also approved the purchase of Sudarshan air defense systems from private firm Larsen & Toubro — an acquisition worth approximately $844 million. The Army would use the systems, which feature radars and 40mm guns, to protect its installations and the country’s border areas.
The Sudarshan approval followed an October 2022 request for procurement seeking 141,576 ammunition rounds to accompany 220 guns, including pre-fragmented, programmable proximity fuses and smart rounds.
The Sudarshan is also competing in an Air Force competition for 244 close-in weapon systems.
“Air defense guns have assumed importance because of the overall weak air and missile defense profile with dated equipment, with the Indian Army in particular, and the add-on threat from drones,” Bhonsle explained.
The Indian Army relies on antiquated Bofors L/70 and ZU-23-2B towed guns, and their replacement has become urgent given the emerging threat of drones and loitering munitions.
Larsen & Toubro is also set to provide the air surveillance radars, worth about $723m. India is prioritizing better radar coverage of its northern and western borders to guard against Chinese and Pakistani aircraft, respectively. Augmenting the existing radar network in phases, the Air Force will operate the new indigenous sensors.
And Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd. is to manufacture new RD-33MK engines for MiG-29 fighters in collaboration with Russia, with the project worth about $639m.
These projects underscore India’s attempts to maximize indigenous input. The Make in India economic policy seems to be gaining groud, Bhonsle said.
“However, it should be noted there is also considerable foreign collaboration involved in many of the projects, as up to 50% or more is permissible under existing rules for acquisition,” Bhonsle added. (Source: Google/ Defense News) )
29 Feb 24. Modise confident National Treasury will fund SAMIDRC deployment. Defence and Military Veterans Minister Thandi Modise has confirmed that the current budget does not provide funding for the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) contingent serving with the SADC Mission in the DRC (SAMIDRC), but an allocation will be made in future budgets.
She revealed this on 28 February while answering questions in Parliament during a National Assembly plenary session.
When asked if South Africa is using the 2023/24 budget for the latest deployment to the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), of up to 2 900 soldiers until mid-December at a cost of R2.371 bn, Modise said: “You will currently not find a specific budget item for the amount for the deployment in the DRC…I think that in the coming budget you will see a budget line that will say how much we will be expending. I must also say that we are expecting that we will be given an allocation on this current deployment.”
Modise added that the Department of Defence is raising the funding issue with National Treasury and The Presidency.
She explained that the SANDF initially went into the DRC under the United Nation’s MONUSCO umbrella, and was to a large extent being reimbursed by the UN for troops and equipment deployed there. Now South Africa is fulfilling its obligations to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) and in pursuit of peace and stability in the DRC.
The SAMIDRC force will comprise 5 000 troops from South Africa, Malawi, and Tanzania, with South Africa providing the majority 2 900 under Operation Thiba.
“There is no ANC interest in the DRC. Our interest is peace. Throughout the continent. We are not making money in the DRC,” she said. “We are there because we are part of not only SADC but we have always in Africa pushed for the silencing of the guns.”
Responding to a Democratic Alliance assertion that the South African government is responsible for the deaths of two SANDF soldiers killed in a mortar attack in the DRC this month, Modise said such an accusation is “low”.
“Do we regret that we have sent our people there? No, we don’t. Do we regret the loss of lives? We mourn the passing of our children. I received the corpses. I sit with those families,” Modise said. “In war, sometimes there is loss of life. We regret that. We want to make sure nothing ever happens. We have taken steps that those soldiers who are right there right now are able to withstand any pressure that they will be put to.”
“My job is to make sure our troops are well looked after and get what they need to get,” Modise told the National Assembly. “Since last week the DRC government has gone out of its way that it acquires for its own defence force that which it needs to finish its business. We on the other hand ensure that whatever equipment our sons and daughters need in the DRC has been shipped. Not all that they need has gone; they will get what they need to get.”
Modise acknowledged that the SANDF’s prime mission equipment has been “compromised by the lack of maintenance over the years,” and so a review of the 2015 Defence Review is being carried out, and there are plans to acquire more equipment.
Criticism has been levelled at the Department of Defence for not having enough serviceable Oryx and Rooivalk helicopters to support deployed forces. Modise said, “It is not true that the Rooivalk and Oryx and so on are unfixable…I have been running around the world and I can tell you that as soon as we get the money not only the Rooivalk will be upgraded,” but ships will be maintained and offshore patrol vessels will be bought. The SA Navy is also in the process of receiving a third inshore patrol vessel from Damen Shipyards Cape Town.
“We have the plan and that plan will come to the committee,” Modise said. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
29 Feb 24. Chad: Crackdown on opposition will likely drive operational disruption, unrest risks around election. On the night of 27 February, gunmen killed two members of the National State Security Agency (ANSE) during an attack against its headquarters in the capital N’djamena. The government has accused the opposition Socialist Party Without Borders (PSF) of conducting the attack following the arrest of a senior PSF figure for an alleged assassination attempt on Samir Adam Annour, the president of the Supreme Court. On 28 February, the security forces led an armed assault against the PSF headquarters. There is currently an augmented security presence across N’djamena amid an ongoing operation to arrest the PSF’s leader, Yaya Dillo. Although the government claims that the situation is now under control, the augmented security posture, which includes stop-and-search operations, will likely continue in the coming days, prompting movement disruption; further disruption to internet and telecommunications is also possible. We assess that the incident will likely be used as justification to prevent the PSF from contesting the 6 May presidential election, elevating the threat of unrest around the polls. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Feb 24. China-region: Increased Chinese maritime militia activity in South China Sea will drive tensions. On 28 February, a report from the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) claimed that 35% more Chinese militia vessels were spotted around contested ‘features’ in the South China Sea in 2023 compared to the previous year. China’s Maritime Militia (CMM) consists of a vast array of vessels that typically look like commercial fishing vessels but act under the direction of Beijing to further China’s aims in contested waters; these vessels are being utilised at an increasing rate (see Sibylline China Intelligence Review – 5 September 2023). AMTI concluded from studying satellite imagery that an average of 195 vessels were present each day around nine monitored contested features. This activity included an unexplained spike in the summer around Mischief Reef, which is also claimed by Vietnam and the Philippines. Additionally, CMM vessels were used alongside the China Coast Guard to try to block Philippine re-supply missions to the BRP Sierra Madre in the disputed Second Thomas Shoal. We assess that such activity will likely continue as Beijing looks to strengthen its presence in disputed waters and to undermine other claimant states. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Feb 24. Iraq: Attack on PMF headquarters reflects elevated security risks, elevated intra-Shia tensions. Earlier on 29 February, an unidentified assailant launched a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) at the local office of the Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Suq al-Shuyukh (Dhi Qar governorate). The attack resulted in significant damage to the compound; no casualties were reported at the time of writing. The incident follows a recent uptick in attacks targeting PMF offices across Iraq; recent attacks took place on 20 February in Hillah (Babylon governorate), which also involved an RPG, and Najaf (Najaf governorate). While the perpetrators have not yet been identified, there were indications that the Sadrist movement associated with Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, who has attempted to distance himself from the incident, was likely involved in the 20 February RPG attack. The attacks point to concerns over elevated intra-Shia tensions, particularly between Sadrists and Iranian-backed PMF militias. These concerns will elevate security and bystander risks near PMF and Sadrist facilities in the coming days, particularly in southern Iraq. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Feb 24. RoK and US Forces to Conduct Major Military Drills Amid North Korean Threats. South Korean and U.S. military forces are set to commence expanded annual military exercises next week. This decision comes amid heightened tensions on the Korean Peninsula, characterized by North Korea’s aggressive missile testing and hostile rhetoric towards its southern neighbor and the U.S.
The upcoming drills, named Freedom Shield, will incorporate computer-simulated command post training alongside various field exercises scheduled from March 4 to March 14. According to Col. Lee Sung-Jun, a spokesperson for South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff, the joint exercises are designed to enhance the allies’ capabilities in preventing North Korean nuclear weapon use. Notably, the number of field exercises this spring is double that of the previous year, including air assault, live-firing, and bombing training.
Col. Lee emphasized South Korea’s readiness to decisively counter any North Korean provocations, stating, “Our military is ready to punish North Korea immediately, strongly, and to the end in the event of its provocation.” Similarly, Col. Isaac L. Taylor, representing the U.S. military, underscored the defensive nature of these exercises, highlighting their role in maintaining a high readiness rate essential for deterrence.
North Korea’s response to the drill announcement remains pending, though it has historically responded to South Korea-U.S. military drills with missile tests. The nation has notably intensified its weapons testing activities since 2022, aiming to expand its nuclear and missile arsenals.
The upcoming drills will also include training specifically designed to detect and neutralize North Korean cruise missiles, a strategic threat to U.S. warships and military installations in Japan. This preparation reflects the allies’ commitment to counter the evolving threats posed by North Korea’s missile development. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
28 Feb 24. Iran: Foiled terrorist attack will likely elevate mobility disruption in Sistan and Baluchestan province. Earlier on 28 February, the Iranian Public Prosecutor announced that the security forces foiled a terrorist attack near Mohamadan town (Sistan and Baluchestan province). One perpetrator was killed in a failed blast while the other managed to escape. While investigations are underway, it is highly likely that the Iranian security forces will augment their posture in the area, primarily in nearby Bampur city and other towns in Bampur county. Checkpoints and arbitrary stop-and-search operations along major roads in the province are also likely, elevating mobility and transport disruption risks in the coming days. We also assess there is a realistic possibility that intensified security measures will partially disrupt local voting during the upcoming elections of the Islamic Consultative Majlis and the Assembly of Experts on 1 March. This would possibly elevate feelings of marginalisation among the local Sunni population, elevating the likelihood of unrest. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Feb 24. Modernization initiatives to spur Vietnam defense budget at 5.6% CAGR over 2025-29, forecasts GlobalData. Vietnam’s volatile relationship with China and territorial disputes in the South China Sea have compelled the country to enhance its military capabilities. With China’s growing military might and assertiveness in the region, Vietnam is undertaking modernization initiatives for its armed forces, which will increase its defense budget to an estimated $10.2 bn by 2029, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.6%, according to GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, “Vietnam’s Defense Market Size and Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Key Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2024-29,” reveals that the country’s defense acquisition budget witnessed a robust CAGR of 12.6% from 2020 to 2024 and is expected to maintain a positive CAGR of 9.4% with a cumulative investment of $14.1bn during the forecast period, 2025-29.
Akash Pratim Debbarma, Aerospace & Defense Analyst at GlobalData, comments: “Ever since the Vietnam-China war of 1979, the relationship between the two countries has always remained strained owing to China’s continuous intrusions in territories of the South China Sea that Vietnam perceives as its own and considers it a threat to its sovereignty. Even though Vietnam and China agreed to step up cooperation on security matters in December last year, it is unlikely to have any significant improvement in their relationship in the near-term.”
As Vietnam charts its path towards modernization, a significant emphasis lies on bolstering its artillery systems, missile defense systems, and military fixed-wing aircraft capabilities. As per GlobalData estimates, the country is expected to cumulatively allocate $689m between 2023 and 2028 for procuring various categories of artillery systems.
Also, if the planned procurement of 12 units of Su-57 from Russia materializes in the coming years, it will drastically improve the country’s aerial combat capabilities. Vietnam operates a fleet of Su-27 and Su-30 multi-role aircraft. As the fleet of Su-27s approaches retirement, the inclusion of these Su-57s will surely fulfill the country’s desire to modernize its Air Force inventory.
Debbarma concludes: “In terms of military capabilities and defense investment, Vietnam is one of the fastest-growing countries in the Southeast Asian region, along with Malaysia and Indonesia. As most Southeast Asian countries continue to invest more in their defense budgets to make themselves stronger in order to protect their territory and maintain sovereignty, Vietnam, with an expected cumulative defense budget of $46bn between 2025 and 2029, displays its intent to modernize its defense capabilities to deter hostile forces in the region.” (Source: GlobalData)
27 Feb 24. Lightning fast: Australia, Indonesia fast-track defence cooperation agreement. A “lightning-fast” Australia-Indonesia defence cooperation agreement is reportedly being accelerated within months, according to comments from Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles this week.
A treaty level agreement is reportedly being written up within months to allow respective defence forces to exercise together in both countries.
The announcement coincides with high-level defence and security discussions between Minister for Defence Marles and probable Indonesian president, Indonesian Minister of Defense Prabowo Subianto in Jakarta, Indonesia, on 23 February.
“We are looking at the deepest, most significant defence agreement between our two nations in our respective histories. First time this will have occurred at a treaty level,” Minister Marles said earlier this month at a doorstop interview in Jakarta.
“It is profoundly important in terms of what it provides around being the platform for our two defence forces to exercise together, for Indonesians to exercise in Australia and vice versa. It is a very a significant statement about the strategic direction of both Indonesia and Australia.
“These are agreements which normally take many, many years, and we are very hopeful of being in a position to sign this in the next few months. If we can achieve that, that is a lightning-fast agreement.
“The training, exercises, the opportunity for both our defence forces to do more in each other’s country. This is the platform for that very practical engagement.
“Australia and Indonesia in a security sense, clearly have a shared destiny. We are neighbours; our security is entirely tied up in the security of Indonesia. The defence of Australia is entirely tied up in the defence of Indonesia. We have a collective and shared mission.”
Minister Marles had previously reaffirmed that Australia recognises the territorial sovereignty of Indonesia and does not support any independence movements within the country.
Subianto, the current Indonesian Minister of Defense and favourite to win the recent Indonesian presidential race, has previously served as a military general in Indonesia and undertaken officer training at the Royal Military College – Duntroon.
“Our bilateral relations now are very good, and we hope to enhance and improve the level of cooperation,” said Indonesian Defense Minister Subianto, during a joint press conference in Jakarta on 24 February.
“We hope to finalise and sign the defence cooperation agreement between Indonesia and Australia within perhaps the next two or three months.
“I think that is the essence and we look forward to continue close cooperation with Australia.
“We are destined to be close neighbours and we are determined to be good neighbours and we have very good relationships.
“Historically, there are ups and downs, but we consider Australia a good friend who’s always in many critical instances have sided with Indonesia. And we are determined to maintain and enhance this relationship.
“We are determined to foster this good relationship in many fields: education, economic, cultural, military, so there will be many dimensions but I think education is one of the fields that we discussed quite a lot.
“One of our main focus is to provide education to our people. And we see Australia as a very good partner for this. I think there’s several Australian universities that are opening campuses in Indonesia. I think two or three have already made serious progress.
“We need the best of relationships with all our neighbours and that’s our focus now is to maintain the best of relationships with our neighbours, and thank God that we have already achieved that, all these friendships within all our direct neighbours and especially with Australia. We value that very much.”
Elsewhere in the Indo-Pacific, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will welcome Republic of the Philippines President Ferdinand R Marcos Jr and First Lady Louise Araneta-Marcos to Canberra later this week on 28 and 29 February.
Both leaders are expected to discuss greater cooperation on defence and maritime security, governance, trade and investment.
“President Marcos is a great friend to Australia, and I look forward to welcoming him to Canberra for his first official visit,” PM Albanese said.
“We are ambitious for the future of the Australia-Philippines relationship, which is guided by our historic Strategic Partnership I signed with President Marcos in Manila last year.
“Our nations are deeply connected through our shared regional, trade and investment links, but most importantly through our people, including more than 400,000 people of Filipino heritage who call Australia home.” (Source: Defence Connect)
26 Feb 24. India grants 23 licensing agreements to defence start-ups. India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation gathered MSMEs in an effort to source domestic products and address industry challenges.
India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) brought various domestic start-ups together for an ‘Industry Meet’ during the Maharashtra Micro, Small and Medium Enterprise (MSME) Defence Expo on 25 February 2024.
The DRDO spoke about existing Government initiatives and policies implemented to benefit emerging defence organisations in India as well as address concerns in industry.
Notably, during the meeting, the DRDO granted 23 Licensing Agreements for Transfer of Technology (LATOT) to 22 companies. The technologies varied across a range of defence sectors, including electronics, laser technology, armaments, life and materials science, combat vehicles, naval systems and aeronautics.
These include Manufacturing of Carbon/Carbon Aircraft brakes for the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft; 100-metre Infantry Foot Bridge Floating; 40-millimetre High Explosive Anti-Personnel (HEAP) Grenade for UBGL; Full Trailer of 70 tonne Tank Transporter for the main battle tank, Arjun Mark 1A; Expendable Mobile Shelter Solar Heated Shelter; NMR-Supercapacitor, Weaponisation of Hand-Held Thermal Imager with LRF (WHHTI); and a High Pressure Water Mist Fire Suppression System (HP WMFSS).
The products based on these DRDO technologies will further boost the defence manufacturing sector and self-reliance in defence.
Licensing deals consolidate a ‘Self-Reliant India’
Addressing industry partners, Dr Kamat noted DRDO’s commitment to provide the means to develop India’s defence industries for realisation of ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ (Self-Reliant India), as envisioned by Prime Minister Shri Narendra Modi.
Kamat elaborated that the recent success of DRDO products have not only made the country more self-reliant in military technology but also provided immense opportunities to the industries in defence manufacturing sector.
Many countries and their companies have set their eyes on India’s defence industry in the past year. The US established the INDUS-X initiative in which both nations are bridging their capabilities in a spirit of unprecedented technology-sharing and industrial as well as intellectual collaboration.
The Indian Ministry of Defence has also sought to increase the percentage of domestically produced systems across its Armed Forces. Last week, the Indian Air Force sourced another domestic supplier for its ‘Digital Fly by the Wire Control Computer’ for the next iteration of the Tejas Light Combat Aircraft, the Mark 1A variant.
In the spirit of Aatmanirbhar Bharat, Kamat emphasised that “the recent success of DRDO products have not only made the country more self-reliant in defence technology but also provided immense opportunities to the industries in defence manufacturing sector.” (Source: army-technology.com)
27 Feb 24. Moldova-Ukraine: Possible Russian drone airspace violation was likely part of destabilisation effort. Earlier on 27 February, Ukraine’s Southern Defence Forces (SOPU) reported that a Russian drone flew into Moldovan airspace during an overnight attack against Ukraine. It claimed that Russian forces ‘provocatively’ directed the drone to cross the Ukraine-Moldova border in Odesa oblast (Ukraine). Ukrainian Southern Operational Command spokesperson Natalia Humenyuk rejected the Moldovan defence ministry’s assessment on 26 February that the drone did not travel across Moldova. While it remains uncertain whether the drone flew across Moldova on the night of 26-27 February, such territorial violations are increasingly likely as Russia ramps up pressure on Chișinău ahead of this year’s Moldovan presidential election (a Russian drone wreckage was found in Gagauzia on 11 February). Together with ongoing speculation around the outcome of the breakaway region of Transnistria’s upcoming congress on 28 February, we assess that such incidents are likely aimed at driving up tensions; however, they are unlikely to indicate imminent military escalation in Moldova. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Feb 24. Iraqi Intelligence Service Capture ISIS Leaders in Cross-Border Raid. The Iraqi National Intelligence Service (INIS) recently announced the capture of two key ISIS leaders linked to terrorist operations and propaganda in Fallujah during its occupation by ISIS from 2014 to 2016. This significant operation was carried out outside of Iraq, although the specific location remains undisclosed. The captured individuals, Issam Abd Ali Saedan and Bashir Abdul Ali Saedan, played critical roles in ISIS’s activities in Fallujah, with Issam focusing on media operations and the documentation of terrorist acts, and Bashir overseeing terrorist operations and communication encryption.
Despite the defeat of ISIS’s territorial control in Iraq and Syria, the threat of resurgence remains amid regional instability. However, the overall number of attacks by ISIS has significantly decreased, indicating the effectiveness of counter-terrorism efforts. The discussion on the withdrawal of US-led Coalition forces from Iraq adds a layer of complexity to the security landscape, especially considering the presence of Iran-backed militias in the region. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
26 Feb 24. UK condemns confirmed Daesh use of chemical weapons in Syria. Statement from Minister of State for the Middle East, following publication of a report from the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW) which finds Daesh responsible for 2015 sulphur mustard attack in Marea. The Minister of State for the Middle East, South Asia, UN and the Prime Minister’s Special Representative on Preventing Sexual Violence in Conflict, Lord (Tariq) Ahmad of Wimbledon has condemned Daesh use of chemical weapons in Syria, following the publication of an OPCW report which found that Daesh fighters are responsible for a chemical weapons attack using sulphur mustard in Marea in the Syrian Arab Republic in September 2015:
We commend the Organisation for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons (OPCW)’s Investigation and Identification Team (IIT) for its expert and independent analysis which has found Daesh was responsible for the use of chemical weapons on civilians in Marea in 2015. The IIT have shown consistent resilience and professionalism in attributing responsibility in cases of both state and non-state actors use in Syria. They have our full support.
This report adds to the shocking track record of Daesh use of chemical weapons. The OPCW-UN Joint Investigative Mechanism previously found Daesh responsible for three other attacks in Marea in 2015 and in Umm Hawsh in 2016. We condemn all use of chemical weapons during the Syrian conflict perpetrated by Daesh and the Assad regime. UN and OPCW mandated investigations have found the Assad regime responsible for at least nine chemical weapons attacks including using sarin and chlorine.
The international community should be gravely concerned about the threat of non-state actors developing, acquiring, and using chemical weapons. The proliferation risk in Syria has only been exacerbated by instability in the region. We urge all States Parties to the Chemical Weapons Convention to cooperate to implement the Decision on ‘Addressing the Threat from Chemical Weapons Use and the Threat of Future Use’ adopted in November 2023, which expressed concern about use by state and non-state actors in Syria.
This is the fourth report by the OPCW’s Investigation and Identification Team (IIT) into chemical weapons attacks in Syria. Following a rigorous and independent analysis of the evidence, the OPCW’s report has concluded that there are reasonable grounds to believe that units of Daesh were the perpetrators of a chemical weapons attack using sulphur mustard on Marea on 1 September 2015 in the Syrian Arab Republic.
Previous reports from the OPCW’s IIT had found the Assad regime responsible for attacks on Saraqib and Douma in 2018 using chlorine, and three separate attacks with sarin and chlorine in Ltamenah in March 2017. All use of chemical weapons is prohibited under international law.
The United Kingdom is determined that those responsible for chemical weapons attacks should be identified and held to account. As well as our support to the OPCW, the UK has imposed sanctions under the UK’s Syria Sanctions regime and Chemical Weapons Sanctions regime on 32 individuals and 7 entities previously identified for their involvement in Syria’s chemical weapons programme. Designated persons are subject to asset freezes and travel bans. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
23 Feb 24. Russia Recruits Nepali Citizens as Mercenaries Amid Economic Hardships in the Himalayas. Amid the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine, reports have emerged of a substantial number of Nepalis being recruited to fight for Russia. A CNN report cited that up to 15,000 Nepali nationals, drawn by the promise of financial gain and the prospect of Russian citizenship, have joined the ranks of the Russian military, facing brutal realities of trench warfare on the front lines. Many of these mercenaries, once civilians struggling for employment in their homeland, are now embroiled in a conflict far from their Himalayan roots, with some returning severely traumatized and others not returning at all.
With a per capita GDP of $1,336 in 2022 and a youth unemployment rate of 19.2%, Nepal faces significant economic challenges. The recruitment of Nepalis by the Russian military comes with a lucrative package, offering at least $2,000 a month and a fast-tracked process for obtaining Russian citizenship. However, the reality on the ground is often far more harrowing than recruits anticipate. Deployed to some of the conflict’s most intense battlegrounds, such as Bakhmut, Nepali mercenaries confront the grim aspects of war, including heavy casualties and the psychological toll of combat. The Nepali government acknowledges the participation of its citizens in the conflict, citing figures significantly lower than those reported by rights campaigners and opposition lawmakers. There have been calls on Russia to release information about Nepali fighters and to negotiate the release of prisoners of war. Nepal’s Prime Minister, Pushpa Kamal Dahal, has publicly addressed the issue, indicating the government’s efforts to mitigate the recruitment of its citizens by foreign militaries, appealing to Moscow to halt such practices. This situation has not only led to diplomatic discussions but also to legal actions within Nepal, including the arrest of individuals alleged to be involved in smuggling Nepalis into Russia for military service.
The engagement of Nepalis in foreign conflicts is not a new phenomenon, with the country’s history of providing mercenaries, notably the Gurkhas, to global powers like the UK and India. However, the current scenario is markedly different, driven by factors such as economic hardship, unemployment, and the allure of overseas opportunities. The promise of Russian citizenship and the perceived prestige of military service have been significant motivators, exacerbated by social media. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
23 Feb 24. U.S. Special Operations Command Africa Conducts Joint Knowledge Exchange in Somalia. In a concerted effort to bolster military capabilities and foster interoperability, the U.S. Special Operations Command Africa (SOCAFRICA) hosted a week-long joint knowledge exchange in Kismayo, Somalia, from January 10 to January 16, 2024. This initiative brought together the Somali National Army-Danab Special Engagement Cell (SNA-Danab) and the Kenya Defence Forces (KDF), with support from the 95th Civil Affairs Brigade (Airborne) and the 40th Forward Resuscitative and Surgical Detachment.
The program covered essential military skills such as weapons handling, combat medical care, and communication techniques, alongside media training conducted by the 1st Combat Camera Squadron. Emphasizing practical, hands-on training, the exchange aimed to prepare participants for enhanced mission readiness and success.
This collaboration highlights the ongoing security partnership between the U.S., Somalia, and Kenya, aimed at improving the security landscape in the Horn of Africa amidst threats from extremist groups like al-Shabaab. Through such exchanges, the U.S. reaffirms its commitment to supporting regional stability and security through shared knowledge and strengthened military cooperation. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
26 Feb 24. Belarus: Tightly controlled elections set stage for 2025 presidential ballot; repression risks are high. Earlier on 26 February, the head of Belarus’ Central Election Commission, Igor Karpenko, stated that voters elected all 110 lawmakers to the lower house of the country’s parliament following parliamentary and local elections on 25 February. Most candidates were from the four officially registered parties – Belaya Rus, the Communist party (KPB), the Liberal Democratic party (LDPB) and the party of Labour and Justice (RPTS). The Belarusian authorities denied around a dozen other parties’ registration last year. The vote marks Belarus’ first nationwide election since the contested 2020 presidential vote, when President Alyaksandr Lukashenka secured a landslide victory that sparked mass anti-government unrest. On 25 February, Lukashenka announced that he intends to run for a seventh presidential term in 2025. The recent elections were almost certainly part of a controlled electoral event designed to pave the way for the more significant, but more tightly controlled, presidential election in 2025. We assess that this event will almost certainly result in Lukashenka being re-elected amid very high repression risks. (Source: Sibylline)
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