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26 Oct 23. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Statement on U.S. Military Strikes in Eastern Syria. Today, at President Biden’s direction, U.S. military forces conducted self-defense strikes on two facilities in eastern Syria used by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and affiliated groups. These precision self-defense strikes are a response to a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups that began on October 17. As a result of these attacks, one U.S. citizen contractor died from a cardiac incident while sheltering in place; 21 U.S. personnel suffered from minor injuries, but all have since returned to duty. The President has no higher priority than the safety of U.S. personnel, and he directed today’s action to make clear that the United States will not tolerate such attacks and will defend itself, its personnel, and its interests.
The United States does not seek conflict and has no intention nor desire to engage in further hostilities, but these Iranian-backed attacks against U.S. forces are unacceptable and must stop. Iran wants to hide its hand and deny its role in these attacks against our forces. We will not let them. If attacks by Iran’s proxies against U.S. forces continue, we will not hesitate to take further necessary measures to protect our people.
These narrowly tailored strikes in self-defense were intended solely to protect and defend U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria. They are separate and distinct from the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, and do not constitute a shift in our approach to the Israel-Hamas conflict. We continue to urge all state and non-state entities not to take action that would escalate into a broader regional conflict. (Source: U.S. DoD)
27 Oct 23. US fighter jets strike Syria after attacks by Iran-backed militia.
- Summary
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- Poll shows almost half of Israelis want to hold off on Gaza invasion
- Poll results show concern over hostages top agenda
Oct 27 (Reuters) – Two U.S. fighter jets struck weapons and ammunition facilities in Syria on Friday in retaliation for attacks on U.S. forces by Iranian-backed militia as concerns grew that the Israel-Hamas conflict may spread in the Middle East.
U.S. President Joe Biden ordered strikes on the two facilities used by Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps and militia groups that it backs, the Pentagon said, warning the U.S. will take additional measures if attacks by Iran’s proxies continue.
U.S. and coalition troops have been attacked at least 19 times in Iraq and in Syria by Iran-backed forces in the past week. Hamas, Islamic Jihad and Lebanon’s Hezbollah are all backed by Tehran.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said at the United Nations on Thursday that if Israel’s offensive against Hamas did not stop, the United States will “not be spared from this fire”.
The U.S. air strikes took place at roughly 4:30 a.m. on Friday (0130 GMT) near Abu Kamal, a Syrian town on the border with Iraq, and were carried out by two F-16 fighter jets using precision munitions, a U.S. defence official said.
“These precision self-defence strikes are a response to a series of ongoing and mostly unsuccessful attacks against U.S. personnel in Iraq and Syria by Iranian-backed militia groups that began on October 17,” U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement.
“These Iranian-backed attacks against U.S. forces are unacceptable and must stop,” Austin said.
Biden has sent a rare message to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warning Tehran against targeting U.S. personnel in the Middle East, the White House said earlier on Thursday.
“What we want is for Iran to take very specific actions, to direct its militias and proxies to stand down,” a senior U.S. defence official said. The United States did not coordinate the air strikes with Israel, the official added.
The United States has sent warships and fighter aircraft to the region over the last three weeks. On Thursday the Pentagon said about 900 more U.S. troops have arrived in the Middle East or are heading there to bolster air defences for U.S. personnel.
Israel said on Friday military raids into Gaza were preparing “the next stage of the operation”, amid fears that a ground invasion of the Palestinian enclave could spark a wider Middle East conflict.
Israel has bombarded the densely populated Gaza Strip following the Oct. 7 Hamas attack on Israeli communities. Israel says Hamas killed some 1,400 people including children, and took more than 200 hostages, some of them infants and older adults.
The Hamas-controlled Gaza health ministry said on Thursday that 7,028 Palestinians had been killed in the retaliatory air strikes, including 2,913 children.
Reuters could not independently verify the tolls.
A missile launched as part of fighting between Hamas and Israel struck an Egyptian resort town about 220 km (135 miles) from the Gaza Strip early on Friday, Egypt’s Al Qahera News reported, citing sources.
The missile hit a medical facility in Taba, injuring at least six people, Al Qahera reported. A witness in Taba confirmed hearing an explosion and seeing smoke rising, but Reuters was not immediately able to identify the blast’s source.
ISRAEL SAYS HITS HAMAS COMMANDERS
Israel said on Friday that its fighter jets had struck three senior Hamas operatives who played significant roles in the Oct. 7 attack on Israel. They were commanders in the Daraj Tuffah Battalion, part of the Gaza City Brigade, Israel said.
There was no official announcement by Hamas.
Palestinian militants clashed with Israeli troops in at least two areas of the Gaza Strip on Friday, Hamas-affiliated media reported.
Reuters was unable to immediately confirm the reports.
As the plight of Palestinian civilians grows more desperate, the issue of whether to have humanitarian pauses or ceasefire agreements in the Hamas-run coastal enclave will come before the 193-member U.N. General Assembly on Friday in a draft resolution submitted by Arab states calling for a ceasefire.
Unlike in the Security Council where resolutions on Gaza aid failed this week, no country holds a veto in the General Assembly. Resolutions are non-binding, but carry political weight.
More than 613,000 people were estimated to have been made homeless by the Israeli bombardment of Gaza and were being sheltered by the United Nations agency for Palestinian refugees, UNRWA.
ISRAELIS SUPPORT FOR GROUND INVASION DIPS, POLL
Almost half of Israelis want to hold off on any invasion of Gaza, according to a poll published on Friday.
Asked if the military should immediately escalate to a large-scale ground offensive, 29% of Israelis agreed while 49% said “it would be better to wait” and 22% were undecided, the poll published in the Maariv newspaper said.
The daily said the results contrasted with its Oct. 19 poll that found 65% support for a major ground offensive.
Maariv said “it is almost certain that the developments on the matter of the hostages, which is now topping the agenda, have had a great impact on this shift (in opinion)”.
Hamas freed four hostages over the last week amid efforts by regional mediator countries to arrange a larger-scale release. Hamas says around 50 hostages have been killed in Israeli strikes on Gaza.
(Source: Reuters)
26 Oct 23. Sudan: Negotiations unlikely to resolve conflict; risk of further clashes will persist. On 26 October, negotiations between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) resumed in Jeddah (Saudi Arabia). Previous negotiations broke down in July after numerous ceasefires were violated by both parties. Although the RSF has indicated that it will seek a ceasefire, the SAF has stated it will seek agreements to facilitate the delivery of humanitarian aid but continue fighting while negotiations proceed. As such, these negotiations are highly unlikely to establish a durable ceasefire and clashes will almost certainly continue over the coming weeks, sustaining significant security risks to staff throughout Sudan, particularly in the capital Khartoum. Additionally, both the RSF and SAF have formed alliances with extensive networks of decentralised ethno-religious militias, sustaining significant risks to individuals, including NGO staff both as bystanders and as targets of intercommunal clashes, particularly in the Darfur region. Furthermore, continued clashes will further contribute to widespread food insecurity, exacerbating humanitarian conditions and ethno-religious tensions nationwide. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Oct 23. African countries are investing in air power, embracing cooperation. For most of post-independence history, air forces in Africa were not a priority. Expensive and difficult to maintain, air power was seen as a luxury not useful to the realities and unique threats on the continent. With tight budgets and command structures dominated by ground forces, air forces make up less than 10% of uniformed personnel in many countries.
That is changing. As countries face the threat of violent extremist organizations, light attack aircraft are proving to be a force multiplier that gives the military the upper hand. In battles against insurgent groups that thrive in remote areas, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities are essential to launching targeted strikes. For countries seeking to move personnel, equipment or relief supplies to crisis regions, heavy airlift is the best solution.
Between 2022 and 2023, Africa was one of only two regions in the world that saw a full percentage increase in its continental fleet size, adding 41 military aircraft. Large, well-established air forces increased their transport fleets. Algeria added two LM-100J transport aircraft, Tunisia ordered eight Beechcraft T-6C turboprop trainers, and Angola ordered three Airbus Defence and Space C295s for maritime surveillance and transport. Meanwhile, the Moroccan Air Force is expected to receive 25 F-16 Block 72 fighter aircraft between 2025 and 2027.
The reason for the investment is on-the-ground success. Major General Abdul Khalifa Ibrahim, then-force commander of the Multinational Joint Task Force in the Lake Chad region, summed it up when he said air power is “central” to his troops’ ability to defeat violent extremist groups.
“In modern warfare, one of the dominant themes is the use of air power because it gives an additional reach; it allows delivery in places that ground troops can’t easily reach,” Ibrahim told Africa Defense Forum (ADF). “Air power has been a force multiplier of immense proportion.”
ISR Offers Eyes in the Sky
As air forces combat insurgencies that operate in some of the toughest and most isolated environments on the planet, the ability to track them from the air and plan a speedy response is crucial. The same principle applies to efforts to fight drug trafficking, piracy, illegal fishing and wildlife poaching.
Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance (ISR) platforms are not simply aircraft, they are systems through which information is collected, processed and put in the hands of decision-makers. Therefore, the ability to collect information from the sky is only as valuable as the ability to “process, exploit and disseminate” it.
Most ISR aircraft are equipped with a high-definition camera and video recorder integrated with a mapping system. Aircraft with infrared capability can track vehicles or people through the night. Common models include the Beechcraft 350ER King Air, Cessna 208 Caravan and Diamond DA42. South Africa’s Paramount Group produced the two-person Mwari with hybrid ISR and close-air support capabilities. It bills itself as a rugged aircraft designed for austere environments that requires minimal logistical support, and has been bought by the Democratic Republic of Congo and Mozambique.
There is a wide range of options. Some countries are buying refurbished aircraft that have been decommissioned by other air forces. Others are contracting with companies to conduct surveillance. Still others have found unmanned aerial vehicles to be a cost-effective solution.
“For countries with limited resources and finances for this role, there is no need for an expensive ‘all singing-all dancing system,’” according to Times Aerospace. “Today, there are several airborne non-traditional ISR (NTISR) options out there, which are relatively cheap, and can do the job.”
Light and Effective
A Nigerian Air Force Super Tucano.
African air forces are moving away from costly fighter jets that provide overwhelming firepower but are most useful for interstate conflict. Instead, countries are investing in small fixed- or rotary-wing aircraft equipped with attack capability in the form of guns or air-to-ground missiles.
These aircraft are cheaper, easier to maintain and better adapted to the threat of violent extremist organizations. One example of this is the Aero L-39, which is in service as a trainer or with ground-attack capability in 10 African countries, according to Times Aerospace. Other countries have opted for turboprop aircraft, with the A-29 Super Tucano among the most popular.
Light attack aircraft are no longer viewed as a consolation prize to a costly fighter jet. Many countries now see them as a better tool for asymmetric warfare.
“Though many African air forces have prioritized the procurement of fast-jet fighters, some have found themselves, either as a result of smart procurement practices, or because of historical accident or budgetary need, to have far more useful equipment,” according to Times Aerospace.
The countries that have developed ISR capabilities along with a fleet of light attack aircraft have shown the best results.
“African air forces require easy to maintain and operate light attack aircraft with acceptable flight hour costs,” wrote Stephen Burgess in “Africa Airpower: A Concept” published in Revista da UNIFA. “If an attack capability can be paired with an ISR capability on a common platform, the utility increases even further. This pairing of ISR and strike functions on an airframe significantly accelerates the kill chain, allowing an aircraft to target a [violent extremist organization] almost immediately after finding it.”
Strategic Lift Is a Shared Responsibility
Africa is one-fifth of the world’s landmass, and many of its nations face challenges of vast, lightly inhabited territory with underdeveloped road systems. In emergencies, it is essential to move personnel or supplies quickly to the place they’re needed most. Strategic airlift is needed for these peacekeeping efforts and humanitarian responses.
But the continent suffers from a shortfall in strategic airlift. Only a handful of countries have the assets necessary to transport troop contingents and heavy equipment over long distances in short periods, according to an analysis published by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies.
The largest platforms, with a maximum payload of about 75 000 kilograms, can transport enough equipment into an area of operations to support a full brigade. Medium-sized airlift platforms with a maximum payload of about 18 000 to 36 000 kilograms, are better suited to move equipment to support one to two battalions on short notice. These planes are costly to acquire, maintain and to train those who will operate them.
Since capabilities are unevenly distributed on the continent, experts believe there is a need to coordinate efforts. This could mean sharing resources or pooling funding to increase purchase power. It begins with transparency and documenting capabilities country by country to determine where strengths and shortfalls exist.
A Joint Approach
Regions around the world have shown that collaborating and sharing air resources in areas of mutual interest leads to success. Africa, like many parts of the world, faces challenges that impede cooperation. This includes a lack of equipment interoperability, training and force structure differences, language barriers, and mistrust.
Stephen Burgess, in “Africa Airpower: A Concept” published in Revista da UNIFA, writes that a good starting point for cooperation is the creation of regional training centres. Led by regional economic communities, countries could create pilot training programs and offer slots to each country in the region. There could be similar training centres for maintenance and other specialties. This builds a shared bond and a community of experts among Airmen in the region.
As air force partnerships develop, there could be opportunities for shared acquisition of new aircraft, standardizing equipment, joint training, and shared intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance data relating to common threats.
There is some movement in this direction. The African Union is creating an Africa Air Mobility Command Centre, which would be a multinational airlift unit that shares continental resources to move personnel and equipment. Sharing strategic airlift will require common doctrine and procedures that could be a springboard to additional cooperation.
“We need to come up with mechanisms of optimizing the use of the very limited resources available to us,” said Botswana Defence Force Brigadier Collen Mastercee Maruping, acting deputy air arm commander.
(Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
26 Oct 23. Canada’s military investments surge as geopolitical tensions grow. An analysis of Canada’s Army, Navy and Air Force in GlobalData’s Canada Defense Market 2023–2028 report.
In response to mounting global uncertainties and rising geopolitical tensions, Canada’s Armed Forces are poised to receive financial boosts for modernisation and expansion.
Bottom of Form
Canada’s commitment to international security and its evolving role on the world stage has prompted increases in the defence budget for the Canadian Army, Royal Canadian Navy and Royal Canadian Air Force. GlobalData’s report, Canada Defense Market 2023–2028, forecasts growth of $2.4bn ($3.32bn) from 2024 to 2028, reflecting a steady compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.7% during this period.
This surge continues Canada’s historical trend, where the defence budget saw a more substantial CAGR of 4.5% from 2019 to 2023, marking a $3.3bn increase.
The growth drivers
The surge in defence spending can be attributed to several key factors. One primary driver is the resurgence of Russia on the global stage, notably marked by its 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
This international event, coupled with ongoing modernisation within the Canadian Armed Forces and the need to support operational deployments worldwide, has contributed to the budget expansion.
Defence market size
Over the past few years, Canada has increased its defence expenditure from $17.2bn in 2019 to $20.6bn in 2023, showcasing a CAGR of 4.5% during the 2019–23 period.
Although facing a brief contraction in 2020–21 due to political and economic uncertainties, Canada has reaffirmed its commitment to a robust defence strategy, further solidified by shifting global dynamics. The defence budget is projected to grow at a CAGR of 2.7% from 2024 to 2028.
The increase in defence spending primarily supports projects within the Air Force and Navy, including procuring 88 F-35A stealth fighter jets and constructing 15 frigates.
Key drivers of defence expenditure
Canada’s tense relationship with Russia has roots in Russia’s actions, such as the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the 2022 invasion of Ukraine. As a strong supporter of Ukraine, Canada has provided military training and equipment to bolster Ukraine’s defences.
Beyond Ukraine, Canada maintains concerns regarding security in the Baltic states, leading to deployments of troops in support of Nato allies.
Being an Arctic nation, Canada also keeps a watchful eye on developments in the Arctic region, where Russia has been increasing its military presence. The effects of climate change, opening Arctic routes for trade and resource exploration, further heighten the importance of Arctic security.
Canada’s unique geographic position with both Atlantic and Pacific territories necessitates a dual focus on both regions. The emergence of China in the Indo-Pacific region poses challenges, prompting Canada to join the Inter-Parliamentary Alliance on China and collaborate with China’s neighbours, which share concerns about its expansion.
Tensions have escalated as Canadian military patrol planes encountered harassment by Chinese aircraft off North Korea’s coast in June 2022.
In addition to great power competition, Canada continues to address threats from extremist terrorism. Canadian Special Forces are actively involved in countering terrorist networks, and the nation emphasises counter-radicalisation efforts while cooperating with allies to prevent large-scale attacks.
Recognising the impact of climate change on global security, Canada has adapted its defence strategy accordingly.
The melting ice caps, rising sea levels, extreme weather events and humanitarian crises have driven the need for increased Coast Guard and Navy patrols in the north. The indirect impact of climate change on global instability further influences the defence landscape.
Canada’s defence strategy, aptly named ‘Strong, Secure, Engaged’, is complemented by the Future Force Design initiative aimed at upgrading military platforms, enhancing multi-domain C4ISTAR networks, improving lethality, and embracing unmanned systems and artificial intelligence. Modernising the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) is among the priorities.
Canada’s defence spending as a percentage of its gross domestic product remains below the Nato target of 2%. The current forecast does not anticipate reaching this goal by 2028, with the defence budget projected to hover around 1.04% of total expenditure. However, the per capita defence budget has grown from $457.8 in 2019 to $522.5 in 2023, with an expected rise to $557 by 2028.
Canada maintains relationships with organisations such as Nato, the Five Eyes alliance, the EU and the US. Its membership of the Arctic Council reflects its dedication to the Arctic region, and the Canada-US alliance is evident through collaborations like NORAD and the Permanent Joint Board of Defense.
Political, social and economic factors
Canada’s political orientation, commitment to multilateral engagement, domestic politics, cultural values, social priorities and economic stability all shape its defence policy. Economic challenges and resource development in the Arctic region also impact Canada’s defence planning.
Canada’s defence landscape is evolving in response to global dynamics and its commitment to maintaining a modern, agile military. (Source: army-technology.com)
26 Oct 23. North Korean munitions “almost certain” to be in Russian stockpiles. North Korea has supplied Russia with munitions for its war in Ukraine, a UK MoD intelligence briefing has announced. North Korean munitions are in Russian ammunition depots, the UK Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated in an intelligence briefing on 26 October, with “almost certain” confidence. This follows a joint statement from the US, Japan and South Korea (ROK) on 25 October, condemning the transfer of military equipment and munitions for use against Ukraine.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un arrived in Russia to meet President Vladimir Putin on 12 September, unexpectedly extending his visit by a number of days, in an effort analysts believe was to negotiate a transfer of arms and technology between the two countries. The Joint US-Japan-ROK statement from yesterday confirms that North Korea and Russia entered into an agreement to achieve this.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was intended to to be completed quickly, but has spiralled into a long-fought campaign with no clear and attainable endpoint. While the international supply of arms to Ukraine has been generous, Russia has been left with few allies, and has been cut off from a vast network of supply chains that ease the production of military equipment.
Russia’s launch of a near constant artillery bombardment, and the difficulties it faces with its industrial-military base have led it to employ aging equipment, and to seek the provision of loitering munitions and drones from Iran, and dual-use military technology from China.
While North Korea’s military forces lack modern technological flourishes, with the overall effectiveness and serviceability of some equipment “in doubt”, according to the IISS 2023 Military Balance report, the nation has a huge stockpile of artillery shells that it has assembled across 70 years of hostilities in the region. In return for its support for Russia, North Korea hopes to receive advanced technical support for its military programmes.
The joint statement issued yesterday does not confirm whether this includes transfer of nuclear or ballistic-missile technology, but it expresses deep concern that this may take place. North Korea has a long-standing ambition to advance its nuclear capability and has engaged in increased missile testing activity in recent years.(Source: army-technology.com)
25 Oct 23. China chases US and Russia guided-missile submarine capabilities with new vessels. China has launched its first nuclear-powered guided missile submarines, according to the Pentagon’s latest report on China’s military – giving it land and sea attack options once the sole province of U.S. and Russian vessels.
The Pentagon report, published Oct. 20, marks the first apparent confirmation that modified submarines seen in Chinese shipyards over the last 18 months are Type 093B guided missile submarines.
Reuters revealed in May 2022 that satellite images from Huludao shipyard in northeast China showed a new or upgraded class of submarine, possibly with vertical tubes for launching cruise missiles.
Satellite images from 2022 confirm that a probable nuclear-powered attack submarine was in drydock in northeast China
The Pentagon report says that in the short term, the Chinese navy “will have the ability to conduct long-range precision strikes against land targets from its submarine and surface combatants using land-attack cruise missiles, notably enhancing (China’s) power projection capability”.
Known as SSGNs, conventionally armed missile submarines were developed by the Soviet Union during the Cold War in part to target U.S. aircraft carriers, while the U.S. Navy developed its own version by converting ballistic missile boats to carry large numbers of land-attack Tomahawk cruise missiles.
Cruise missiles are typically long-range, precision weapons that, unlike ballistic weapons, fly at low altitudes or skim the surface of the sea.
The submarine USS Florida fired 93 Tomahawks against Libyan air defences in 2011 – the first combat strikes from a U.S. SSGN and an event that regional military attaches say was closely studied by Chinese strategists.
Some analysts say the PLA navy will be eager to deploy the vessels as an extra weapon against aircraft carriers as well as a land-attack platform, allowing strikes from a far greater range than its fleets of smaller attack submarines.
The report notes that three of the new SSGNs could be operational by next year, as part of a wider expansion of its submarine fleet – both nuclear and diesel powered – which could number 65 vessels in 2025.
The Chinese defence ministry did not respond to questions from Reuters.
The confirmation comes amid an intensifying submarine arms race as China constructs a new generation of nuclear-armed boats as part of its evolving deterrent force.
The effort to track China’s submarines at sea is one of the core drivers of increased deployments and contingency planning by the U.S. Navy and other militaries across the Indo-Pacific region.
Singapore-based security scholar Collin Koh said the SSGNs were an important new capability for the Chinese navy.
With an expected core armament of cruise missiles, “this potentially allows them to carry out saturated land and anti-ship attacks at standoff range”, he said, which would complicate strategic calculations by China’s rivals.
“I would also expect the Chinese have learned from the Russian experience in using them to threaten U.S. aircraft carriers – with an SSGN, you can launch strikes at standoff range, unlike a typical attack submarine that could have more limited weapon options, and that is a real advantage,” said Koh, of the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.
Research discussed at the U.S. Naval War College in May noted that the PLA was close to breakthroughs in making its nuclear-powered submarines far quieter and more difficult for the U.S. and its allies to track.
Some diplomats and analysts said, however, that it was unclear whether those breakthroughs had been incorporated into the recently launched SSGNs. The upgrades are expected in nuclear-powered boats launched before the end of the decade.
“Unless they are certain of improvements, we can expect the PLA navy to be cautious in how they initially deploy them,” said an Asian military attache who is tracking China’s submarine force. The attache declined to be named because of the sensitivity of the matter. “But we know the submarine force is a priority for Xi Jinping, and this is one more sign they are getting there.” (Source: Reuters)
25 Oct 23. China’s defence ministry blasts Pentagon’s annual report.
China’s defence ministry on Wednesday denounced the U.S. Defense Department’s annual report on China, saying it distorts the country’s security policy and military strategy.
Over the next decade, the People’s Republic of China will rapidly modernise, diversify, and expand its nuclear forces, the Pentagon said in its report to U.S. Congress, laying out China’s national ambitions, including its defence policy and military strategies.
The Pentagon said China has more than 500 nuclear warheads and will probably have more than 1,000 warheads by 2030. The report said China would use new fast-breeder reactors and reprocessing facilities to produce plutonium for its nuclear weapons, despite publicly saying the technologies are intended for peaceful purposes.
“We express our strong dissatisfaction and resolute opposition to this report,” Chinese Defence Ministry spokesperson Wu Qian said in a statement, adding that it “exaggerates and hypes the non-existent ‘Chinese military threat'”.
Wu said the development of China’s armed forces is aimed at containing the threat of war, safeguarding its own security and safeguarding world peace, and is not aimed at any specific country or target.
China and the United States have recently traded barbs over global and national security concerns, military interactions in the South China Sea and over Taiwan, which China claims as its own territory.
The Pentagon said in 2022 that China “amplified diplomatic, political, and military pressure against Taiwan”.
“The so-called report on China’s military power released by the United States is full of all kinds of wrong content, including the statement on the Taiwan issue,” a spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said at a media briefing on Wednesday.
Calling the military-to-military relationship an important part of Sino-U.S. relations, the Defence Ministry’s Wu said, “we maintain frank and effective communication with the United States through military diplomacy”.
But he added the difficulties and obstacles facing relations between the two militaries are created by the United States.
“The United States pretends to be confused, while doing things that harm China’s security interests, but at the same time shouting that it wants to manage the crisis and strengthen communication,” Wu said.
The latest exchange between the two countries comes days before China hosts foreign defence officials at the 10th Xiangshan Forum in Beijing from Oct. 29 to 31.
The United States accepted China’s invitation after China turned down a meeting a few months ago between the two countries’ defence chiefs. (Source: Reuters)
24 Oct 23. African countries examine ways to meet the continent’s strategic airlift needs. As South Sudanese peacekeepers walked off a Kenya Air Force C-27J Spartan military transport aircraft in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), they were fulfilling a pledge.
South Sudan’s president had promised to send 750 troops to take part in the East African Community Regional Force. Their arrival in Goma on 2 and 3 April 2023 meant the mission, designed to bring peace to the volatile eastern DRC, had reached full deployment.
For South Sudan, a country that has hosted foreign peacekeepers since its independence, the ability to send troops abroad was a milestone.
“We are very proud today because the flag of the Republic of South Sudan is going to be flying as a region continuing to contribute to stability and peace,” said then-Minister of Defence and Veteran Affairs Angelina Teny before the deployment. “This is a great opportunity for us to change the image of this country.”
It also showed the importance of airlift partnerships. The deployment might not have been possible without the support of the Kenya Air Force (KAF). The KAF also flew 100 Burundian Soldiers to the DRC in March 2023.
For years, peacekeeping missions have been hampered by a lack of air mobility. Countries simply couldn’t move troops and equipment where they were needed in a timely fashion.
“Strategic airlift is an asset that every nation dreams of, but having such equipment is quite expensive,” KAF Commander Major General John Mugaravai Omenda told Africa Defense Forum (ADF). “And looking at our [gross domestic product], generally in Africa, it is a challenge to operate strategic airlift.”
To solve this shortfall, countries are looking at innovative ways to acquire aircraft, maintain them and pool resources. For the continent, this could be the difference between intervening on time to stop a crisis and arriving too late.
The Challenges
Many governments across Africa’s 30 m square kilometres are responsible for large landmasses with limited road, railway or port infrastructure. This presents a problem sometimes called the “tyranny of distance.”
The continent has 204 kilometres of roads per 1 000 square kilometres, about 22% of the global average. Only about one-quarter of the roads are paved. Infrastructure is not evenly distributed, meaning developed population centres are often far away from conflict zones in remote regions.
“Our region is vast [and] characterized by limited transportation infrastructure, hence [it] requires effective air mobility mechanisms to bridge distances, support replenishment of troops in theatre … and attend to humanitarian assistance,” Rwandan Air Force Lieutenant General Jean Jacques Mupenzi told Air & Space Forces magazine.
When that air mobility is not available, the results can be devastating.
In 2012, as insurgents pushed to take over Mali, an Economic Community of West African States intervention was delayed for months due to a lack of airlift. Similar delays occurred in Sudan’s Darfur region in 2010, when African Union troops were grounded as the conflict exploded. Eventually, the Netherlands stepped in to provide the necessary airlift.
Once arriving in a country, a lack of roads makes sustaining troops a challenge. During the UN mission in Mali, peacekeepers spent weeks moving supplies via truck convoys from the capital city, Bamako, to remote outposts in places such as Timbuktu. A former sector commander recalled the “logistics nightmare” of battling dust storms, floods and tire-puncturing rocks to move supplies across the country.
“Normally they say operations drive logistics, but I think in Africa, logistics drive operations because the operations must be based on what logistics are available,” said retired Brigadier General David Baburam, former head of AU Mission Support. “You can’t get the troops to location A or B if you don’t have the means of air transport to take them there. You can’t keep troops in the operational area for three months if you can’t feed them.”
Finding the Right Platform
The two broad categories of airlift are strategic and tactical. Strategic airlift is provided by large planes designed to move troops and heavy equipment to a location. Tactical aircraft involves smaller planes or helicopters that supply troops throughout a deployment.
For the heaviest strategic lift requirements, defined by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) as capable of moving equipment for one brigade, options are limited. These aircraft, with maximum payloads ranging from 45 000 to 136 000 kilograms, are expensive to acquire and maintain. A C-17 Globemaster can cost more than $300 m with roughly the same amount necessary for repairs and maintenance over its life cycle.
For most peacekeeping and emergency response operations on the continent, medium airlift capacity is the most practical. ACSS defines this as capable of transporting one to two battalions and their equipment to a location in multiple trips over the course of 14 days. These aircraft have a payload of 9 000 to more than 36 000 kilograms and are more affordable.
To meet this need, some countries have turned to the C-130, an aircraft first built in 1957, which has proved to be reliable and cost-effective. Today, the C-130 is the most popular transport aircraft used by air forces around the world. There are 858 C-130s or the related L-100 in use, making up 20% of the global military transportation fleet.
In an analysis of different platforms, US Air Force Major Ryan McCaughan said the C-130 is best suited for regional missions due to its range of more than 2 700 kilometers, the capacity to carry 19 000 kilograms of cargo and its ability to land in rugged environments.
“The C-130 is right for Africa,” McCaughan wrote in a 2019 analysis. “Primarily in terms of cargo capacity, flight time, and unimproved surface landing capability, this asset provides the answer for a region.” Ten African countries fly the aircraft, including South Africa.
A Shared Effort
Nations are examining ways to team up to maximize their resources. One project under the African Union is the creation of an Africa Air Mobility Command Centre that would include an air transport sharing mechanism. This would offer a way to use the continent’s airlift resources to support peace and security requirements.
Under the plan, nations with air capabilities would agree to provide support when called upon. Aircraft could be used to transport troops or equipment for a security operation, to evacuate people during a humanitarian crisis or move aid in response to a natural disaster.
“I think it’s every African’s dream to see an African airplane with all African flags across its tail, flying across the continent providing relief and support to Africans,” said Tunisian Air Force Colonel Kais Sghaier during a 2022 conference in Botswana, where a working group discussed the command centre.
Such arrangements have been successful in other parts of the world. For example, the Movement Coordination Centre Europe, based in the Netherlands, is a partnership of 28 nations that provides airlift, sealift, air-to-air refuelling and ground transportation to member countries.
Countries also are examining the need to create airlift sharing mechanisms at the regional level, particularly to support the Africa Standby Force, which is aligned to the regional economic communities. The force is mandated to respond to crises in as few as 14 days, but often has been unable to meet that timeline.
“In our regional economic community, the Southern African Development Community, we face a lot of disasters and crises, and we don’t have the requisite airlift capability,” Major General Hendrick Thuthu Rakgantswana, Botswana’s air chief, told Air & Space Forces magazine. “So, it means, now, that we have to come together and pool our resources.”
Such cooperation was on display in 2022 and 2023 when Zambia and Angola provided airlift to move personnel and equipment to the Southern African Development Community’s Mission in Mozambique.
“This mechanism is the answer — we just now have to make it fit in the existing structures,” Rakgantswana said.
Countries also are looking at ways to pool resources to enhance buying power. One idea is for a group of nations to join to buy a small fleet of transport aircraft that would be jointly owned and operated. This follows the model of the Hungary-based Strategic Airlift Capability’s Heavy Airlift Wing, a partnership of 12 nations that shares air resources.
During the African Air Chiefs Symposium in 2023 in Dakar, Senegal, air leaders expressed optimism that such partnerships and joint efforts will develop.
“If everything improves, I think we can partner with other nations, because that’s the idea of this forum, to try and bring all these assets together under common use and apply them whenever the need arises,” said Omenda of Kenya. “So, yes [the aircraft] are expensive, they are few, but with collaboration amongst nations we can make it.” (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
24 Oct 23. Armenia-Azerbaijan-Turkey: Military operation against Armenia is unlikely during joint drills. Azerbaijan announced on 23 October that it had commenced joint military exercises with its principal ally Turkey. The drills with Turkey are the first of their kind since Azerbaijan launched a military operation to regain control of Nagorno-Karabakh on 19-20 September. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence (MoD) stated that up to 3,000 personnel from both countries are participating in the exercises, which will run until 25 October. The joint tactical exercises are being conducted across Azerbaijan, including in the capital Baku and the Nakhchivan exclave bordering Turkey, as well as in what the MoD called the ‘liberated territories’, i.e. Nagorno-Karabakh. While an imminent military operation against Armenian territory is unlikely, the exercises underscore Azerbaijan’s efforts to maintain combat readiness and increase pressure on neighbouring Armenia. As such, the drills will moderately raise regional tensions with Armenia amid the continued threat of a further escalation in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
24 Oct 23. Russia: Falling wages underscore socio-economic impact of war in Ukraine. On 23 October, Russian media outlets shared a survey which found that almost half of Russians (45%) believe that their salaries do not cover their basic needs. This figure has increased by about 20% in two years and likely underscores the domestic socio-economic impacts of Russia’s war in Ukraine. While around 20% of respondents reported that their wages allow them to purchase everything they need, this figure was 36% in 2021. People in the capital Moscow, Primorsky Krai, Tatarstan Republic and Tomsk oblast were more likely to report that their salaries are sufficient. Amid growing socio-economic difficulties, a Reuters article published on 2 October cited draft government plans which indicate that defence spending will comprise almost one third of Russia’s total budget expenditure in 2024. While Russia gears up to continue waging its protracted war in Ukraine, domestic economic concerns will likely be foremost among the Russian electorate ahead of the 2024 presidential election. However, related unrest remains highly unlikely amid extensive state repression. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Oct 23. Port of Darwin review finds no cause to cancel Chinese-owned Landbridge lease. The Australian government will not vary or cancel the lease of Port of Darwin to Chinese-owned Landbridge after a national security review. The Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet announced a review into the circumstances of the lease of Port of Darwin had been finalised on 20 October.
Landbridge was originally awarded a 99-year lease in 2015 for the port in a deal worth $506 m dollars and the government committed to reviewing the circumstances of the lease following the 2022 election.
The review found that a robust regulatory system is in place to manage risks to critical infrastructure, existing and ongoing monitoring mechanisms are sufficient, and it is not necessary to vary or cancel the lease.
It also considered previous findings and outcomes as well as risk management and mitigation arrangements to protect national security interests.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has also announced plans to travel to Beijing in the People’s Republic of China for the first time from 4 to 7 November, at the invitation of President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Qiang, and will attend the China International Import Expo.
He also announced an agreement with China to move forward to resolve trade disputes and a Chinese review of its trade duties over the next five months.
Australia and China have agreed they will suspend the dispute on wine in the WTO pending the outcome of this review. If the duties are not removed at the end of the review, Australia will resume the dispute in the WTO.
During the Prime Minister’s visit, which also marks the 50th anniversary of the first visit to China by any Australian Prime Minister (Gough Whitlam) in 1973, the leaders will discuss cooperation in a range of areas including economic links, climate change, and links between their people.
“I look forward to visiting China, an important step towards ensuring a stable and productive relationship,” Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said.
“I look forward to further engaging with President Xi and Premier Li in Australia’s national interest.
“Prime Minister Whitlam’s historic visit laid the groundwork for the diplomatic, economic and cultural ties that continue to benefit our countries today.
“I welcome the progress we have made to return Australian products, including Australian wine, to the Chinese market. Strong trade benefits both countries.”
“President Xi of course has visited Australia many times. Indeed, one of the things at the first meeting that I had with President Xi, was he would be one of the few world leaders who was proudly saying that he has visited every state and territory here in Australia.
“We’re focused on putting together the arrangements for the visit in November. I think it will be a very positive visit and I look forward to it taking place and it achieving further positive outcomes.
“It’s in Australia’s interest to have good relations with China.”
The review was conducted by the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, in consultation with the Department of Defence, Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Attorney-General’s Department, Department of Home Affairs, Office of National Intelligence, and Australian Security Intelligence Organisation. (Source: Defence Connect)
22 Oct 23. Taiwan ramps up its defences amid fears of China’s lethal drone swarms. Taiwan is racing to defend itself against the prospect of lethal autonomous Chinese drone swarms invading its airspace in a potential future conflict. The military has begun to deploy new counter-drone technology on outlying Taiwanese islands within a few miles of China’s southeastern coast, which have been on the front lines of an uptick of commercial drone intrusions over the past year.
Concerns have been raised that US support for the Ukraine war is diverting weapons that could be used to defend Taiwan. The outbreak of war in Israel is likely to increase fears over a threatened Chinese invasion.
The archipelago was targeted by a surge of commercial drone incursions near sensitive military outposts following the visit of Nancy Pelosi, the former US House speaker, in August last year which infuriated Beijing.
Taiwan’s defence ministry vowed to install counter-drone systems after a public outcry when footage emerged of Taiwanese soldiers throwing stones at a Chinese drone that buzzed their guard post.
Under the Drone National Team programme, Taiwan is combining efforts of commercial drone makers, aviation and aerospace firms, and the military to build more than 3,200 military drones by mid-2024. These include mini-drones as well as larger surveillance craft with a range of 150km.
Yu-Jiu Wang, the CEO of Tron Future, the start-up that has pioneered the radar, jamming and interception system, told The Telegraph: “If you can imagine in a serious conflict like World War 3, then that could become terrifying – a swarm of drones carrying a few bullets in each of them and they can recognise people and shoot them down. That could happen. The technology already exists.”
He said his system was defensive in nature and would initially be used to protect key infrastructure, including power plants, telecommunications base stations, and dams.
But he said the company, based in Taiwan’s microchip hub, Hsinchu, was shifting its focus to prepare for a worst-case scenario of a fully autonomous drone swarm that could flood the skies and wreak havoc on the ground.
The threat of an autonomous drone war – although futuristic – was real and imminent given rapid technological advances around the world, he said.
Tron Future’s work is part of a national twin strategy to develop Taiwan’s military drones and counter-drone programme to close the capabilities gap with China, which claims the democratic island as its own territory and has threatened to invade if it does not accept Beijing’s rule.
The company has taken the lead in developing measures to counter unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) of less than one metre in size that are not detected by the national air defence system which focuses on more conventional and larger military “Reaper-style” drones.
Although small, UAS have destructive potential if carrying a small amount of munition and pose a significant surveillance threat.
“For remote islands it has been an imminent problem for the last two years,” said Mr Wang.
His company’s AESA (active electronically scanned array) radar, which has a drone detection range of up to 5km, is first being deployed to Kinmen, a group of Taiwan-controlled islets that sit opposite China’s Xiamen and Quanzhou cities.
Tron Future’s technology combines a lightweight, portable T.Radar Pro, with a drone-disabling jammer and a reusable interceptor that mainly deploys “soft-kill” measures, such as a net, to capture an enemy drone, but can also be adapted for “hard-kill” options using lethal force.
Its website specifies that it has a “radar and image seeker with choices of explosive or non-destructive warheads dealing with different situations”.
Mr Wang said the aim was to adapt the system to deal with swarms of more sophisticated autonomous drones that are able to operate independently without emitting radio or GPS signals to human controllers, and which are harder to detect.
The interceptor component, which currently only neutralises one enemy drone at a time, would need to be able to tackle a saturated attack of multiple autonomous drones flying in a squad, he said.
Taiwan stepped up its quest for military drone assets a few months after Russia began its war with Ukraine. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
23 Oct 23. Philippines rethinks military modernization plan after China clashes. The Philippine military is realigning its modernization program to strengthen territorial and coastal defense amid escalating tension with China.
On Sunday, the Philippines reported Chinese ships collided with a crewed military supply vessel escorted by two Coast Guard ships en route to BRP Sierra Madre, an actively commissioned ship by the disputed Second Thomas Shoal.
Philippine Army Chief of Staff Gen. Romeo Brawner said changes are geared toward protecting the country’s territories in the South China Sea, particularly Thitu Island. That land mass, called Pag-asa Island by the Philippines, is home to more than 400 Filipinos. It is also one of several disputed islands in the South China Sea.
The third phase of the military’s 15-year modernization plan, dubbed Horizon 3, includes the acquisition of multirole fighter jets, radars, two additional Jose Rizal-class frigates, missile systems, helicopters and the country’s first submarine fleet.
Initial plans also included acquiring additional BrahMos missiles and High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems for the Army for coastal defense.
The modernization effort began in 2013, but budget limitations have delayed progress. Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro told lawmakers last month that 10% of Horizon 1, meant to take place from 2013 to 2018, and about 53% of Horizon 2, scheduled from 2018 to 2022, are complete.
“That is why we have to re-strategize, because the paradigms for Horizon 2 may not be valid anymore,” Teodoro said at the time.
However, in response to clashes between China and the Philippines in recent weeks, Manila is speeding up its acquisition plans, with the legislature earmarking 45bn pesos (U.S. $793 ) in defense spending for 2024. Senators have relayed support in passing supplemental budgets for intelligence and materiel acquisitions related to South China Sea operations.
Last week, the Defense Department ordered three C-130J-30 Super Hercules tactical airlifters for delivery in 2026, according to a news release from Lockheed Martin. The Philippines is also expecting to receive two BrahMos missile units in December from India; more Acero-class gunboats next year under a deal with Israel; two new landing dock platforms from Indonesia next year; two corvettes from South Korea around the 2025 and 2026 time frame; and six offshore patrol vessels also from South Korea in 2028.
Horizon 3 requires 500bn pesos spread out over the next six years, but it is unclear how the government intends to finance the program. However, some countries have offered assistance. For example, France pitched its Scorpene diesel-electric submarines as early as 2019, and its proposal includes helping the Philippines Navy develop its base in Zambales.
Others bidding to supply the Philippines with submarines include Spain, which submitted a $1.7bn offer to supply two S-80-class sub, and South Korea’s Hanwha Ocean, which updated its proposal last month for two Jangbogo-III diesel-electric submarines.
While the Philippine military has yet to release its final plans for Horizon 3, the realignment will include less but “more potent” assets and platforms, according to Brawner. The materiel will align with the country’s forward-defense strategy, where threats are “pushed as further away as possible,” Brawner said, adding that the military’s goal is to immediately deploy fighter jets and other assets after reported encounters with Chinese vessels.
According to the country’s new territorial defense strategy released last week, the Philippines is placing particular importance on islands it claims as its own, including in what the government calls the West Philippine Sea, namely Thitu Island, Loaita Cay, West York Island, Flat Island and Nanshan Island. (Source: Defense News)
23 Oct 23. Niger: French troops relocate from Niger to Chad; elevated risk of jihadist expansion. On 20 October, French authorities announced that over 400 troops will depart the country in the coming days. This marks a 50% reduction in France’s military presence in Niger since 24 September. The drawdown comes amid elevated tensions between France and Niger’s military government, which called for a complete withdrawal of French troops shortly after coming to power in July. Since France signalled in September that it would comply with this order, French troops and military assets have largely been redeployed to Chad, underscoring increasingly close ties with Chad’s military government. Such ties will likely intensify anti-government sentiment in Chad, elevating the risk from pro-democracy protests as well as those opposing French influence in Chad. In Niger, the continued drawdown of French troops will likely mitigate the risk of domestic unrest driven by anti-French sentiment, particularly in the capital Niamey. Nevertheless, the loss of French military support and aerial capabilities will likely enable further jihadist expansion, particularly in the Tillabéri region, elevating risks to staff and assets. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Oct 23. DRC: Clashes in Kitsanga underscore ceasefire agreement’s inadequacy. On 21 October, rebels aligned with the M23 group clashed with pro-government local militias in Kitshanga town in the Masisi region (North Kivu), around 55 miles (90km) from the provincial capital Goma. Since then, fighting has continued in the neighbouring territory of Rutshuru (North Kivu). The clashes come after local pro-government militias recaptured Kitshanga in early October. Fighting between local militias and M23 rebels will almost certainly continue in the coming days, underscoring challenges to loyalist militias retaining recaptured territory. Moreover, local militias are highly likely supported by Congolese forces and the East African Community Regional Force (EACRF) that claim to be carrying out an observation mission following the ceasefire agreed in March. This underscores the fragility of the ceasefire agreement and undermines the prospect of an effective peace process. The conflict will almost certainly be prolonged in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Oct 23. RoK, Saudi Arabia in Final-Stage Talks Over Large-Scale Defense Industry Cooperation. South Korea and Saudi Arabia are in the final stage of talks over large-scale defense industry cooperation in areas including antiaircraft defense systems and firearms, a South Korean presidential official said Sunday.
Principal Deputy National Security Adviser Kim Tae-hyo made the revelation to reporters while accompanying South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol on a four-day state visit to Saudi Arabia.
“The defense industry is emerging as a blue ocean in our cooperation with Saudi Arabia,” he said. “Large-scale defense industry cooperation discussions are in the final stage, in various areas such as antiaircraft defense systems and firearms.”
Kim said the two sides are discussing defense industry cooperation programs that are not one-off, but “long-term and systematic.”
“We intend to cooperate so that our weapons systems using our excellent defense industry technologies help strengthen Saudi Arabia’s defense capabilities, and this will serve as a strong force for further expanding our achievements in defense industry exports,” he said, noting that South Korea’s defense industry exports reached an all-time high of US$17.3 bn last year.
Earlier in the day, Yoon held a summit with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and the two exchanged views on the conflict between Israel and Hamas, according to Kim.
“They confirmed their consensus on the need to stop the humanitarian situation from worsening, and (Yoon) said the Republic of Korea will fulfill the role needed and contribute to regional stability and the restoration of peace,” Kim said.
He added that the two sides agreed to issue a joint statement summarizing their cooperation across all sectors and outlining its future direction, and are currently finalizing the text. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/Yonhap News Agency)
23 Oct 23. Armenia-Azerbaijan: Iran-hosted talks imply preferred mediators; resolution remains distant. Iran is due to host peace talks between Armenia and Azerbaijan in the capital Tehran, later today (23 October). The Iranian, Russian and Turkish foreign ministers are likely to attend. According to the Iranian news agency IRNA, the format of the consultations has been established to resolve regional problems via the participation of relevant countries and the exclusion of ‘extra-regional’ and Western countries. This almost certainly refers to the EU and the US, which attempted to broker peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan without a major diplomatic breakthrough. Earlier this month, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev opted out of attending EU-mediated talks. Azerbaijani state media reported that Baku refused to attend as an ‘anti-Azerbaijani atmosphere’ had formed. While the Iranian-brokered meeting is unlikely to result in the imminent signing of a peace treaty, talks between regional countries will likely be prioritised in the coming months to facilitate a settlement between Armenia and Azerbaijan. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Oct 23. Moldova: Accusations of constitutional changes are likely designed to drive polarisation before vote. On 20 October, Moldova’s former president, Igor Dodon, claimed that incumbent President Maia Sandu will possibly attempt to change the country’s constitution to stay in power. Dodon stated that this would possibly involve the parliament re-electing Sandu rather than via a direct vote by Moldovan citizens. Moldova will hold presidential elections in the autumn of 2024; they will likely be a key flashpoint for Russian and pro-Russia destabilisation efforts aimed at undermining the re-election of the pro-West Sandu. Dodon added that the country’s political forces would unite if the incumbent president changes the constitution to stay in power, likely alluding to a resumption of mass anti-government protests. However, there is no material evidence at present to suggest that Sandu will attempt to change Moldova’s constitution. Dodon’s comments are highly likely aimed at increasing pressure on Sandu and the ruling Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS) ahead of local elections on 5 November and next year’s presidential election. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Oct 23. Southern Africa’s security hinges on actioning its organised crime strategy. Organised crime in the Southern African Development Community (SADC) seems to be worsening. Porous borders, weak governance and development deficits make the region vulnerable to drug trafficking, arms smuggling, human and wildlife trafficking, and financial crimes.
Political instability, weak government service delivery and socio-economic marginalisation provide fertile ground for extremist groups to operate. Organised crime and terrorism go hand-in-hand as the groups share common tactics such as acquiring local funding and resources, and benefit from each other’s illicit activities and networks. Terror threats in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and northern Mozambique are particularly concerning, and are causing serious humanitarian crises.
The latest data from the Global Organised Crime Index reveals that three African countries – Nigeria, DRC and South Africa – are among the most affected by organised crime globally. Two of these three are in SADC. The index evaluates all 193 United Nations (UN) member states’ criminality (their criminal markets and criminal actors) and resilience (their ability to withstand or counteract organised crime activities).
After Nigeria, DRC and South Africa rank the highest of all African countries on the criminality score. Between 2021 and 2023, South Africa climbed from 19th out of 193 countries to 7th globally. In 2021, DRC was 1st in the world rankings, improving to 5th place this year.
According to the index, the most prevalent criminal markets in SADC are human trafficking, financial crimes and arms trafficking. In 2022, a meeting of southern Africa’s police chiefs heard that financial crimes account for 43% of reported crimes in the region, resulting in the loss of billions in affected countries.
The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime estimates that around 3.8m unregistered illegal firearms are in circulation in Mozambique, South Africa and Zimbabwe. High arms trafficking rates in the region are primarily driven by historical and current armed conflicts, while porous borders facilitate the movement of arms, persons and other illicit commodities.
A UN Office on Drugs and Crime and SADC 2016 human trafficking report revealed that between 2014 and 2016, around 1 217 victims were officially documented in SADC. But underreporting could mean this is a fraction of actual cases. Labour and sexual exploitation were the most common forms of this crime, reported at an average of 66% and 23% respectively.
On resilience to organised crime, Africa scored the lowest of all global regions. The Global Organised Crime Index measures resilience according to the type and effectiveness of measures to mitigate the offences. Africa’s most prevalent resilience markers are international cooperation, national policies and laws, and territorial integrity.
Despite Africa’s poor ability overall to deal with organised crime, SADC countries such as Botswana, Seychelles, Malawi and Namibia scored relatively high on the resilience indicators. This could be because all 16 SADC member states have ratified the UN Convention Against Transnational Organized Crime.
Even so, Southern African countries face major challenges in preventing, investigating and prosecuting organised crime cases. Challenges include poor institutional capacity, corruption and a lack of political will.
For example, the implementation of SADC’s Protocol Against Corruption (2001) and its Protocol on Mining (2006) has been slow, perhaps hindered by a lack of political will or capacity. At recent events in Dar es Salaam and Lusaka on financial crime, illicit mining and explosives in SADC, experts lamented that essential protocols weren’t being put into practice. Collaborative action and regional cooperation were vital, they said.
More recently, SADC’s Transnational Organised Crime Strategy, prepared and developed in collaboration with the Institute for Security Studies’ ENACT transnational organised crime project, was accepted by all member states. The strategy is being implemented, with feedback reports from SADC member states expected this month.
After the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) in 2021 found deficiencies in the ability of South Africa, DRC, Tanzania and Seychelles to curb money laundering and terror financing, the countries were placed on FATF’s grey list. The task force noted problems like inadequate record-keeping and corruption.
FATF has recently delisted Botswana, Mauritius and Zimbabwe after the countries complied with its recommendations. Botswana had been grey-listed for three years, Mauritius and Zimbabwe for two. Namibia has been placed on notice and will be re-evaluated in February 2024 if it’s not declared FATF-compliant by the end of October.
South Africa, Tanzania, DRC and Seychelles must urgently heed FATF’s advice to avoid damaging their international investments, capital flow and financial systems. Mozambique provides some good practices for the region. It was grey-listed a year before South Africa and submitted its first progress report early in 2023, in compliance with FATF’s recommendations. Mozambique now awaits a FATF assessment to be delisted.
The Eastern and Southern Africa Anti-Money Laundering Group, which oversees and coordinates anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing among member states, could help countries comply promptly with FATF’s requirements.
Given the ongoing organised crime and terror threats facing the region, deficiencies in curbing both problems must be urgently addressed. Organised crime not only threatens physical security but erodes community safety, creates fear and mistrust, and contributes to conditions conducive to terrorism.
The Global Organised Crime Index’s resilience indicators provide a useful guide for SADC states. Failing to address financial crimes and bolster laws would place countries at risk of facilitating criminal and terror groups’ activities. It also undermines the delivery of essential government services to citizens.
Written by Isel Ras, Research Consultant, Southern Africa and Willem Els, Senior Training Coordinator, ENACT, ISS Pretoria. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
20 Oct 23. Niger: Alleged escape bid by ousted president will likely further raise tensions with France, ECOWAS. On 19 October, junta authorities claimed to have disrupted an escape attempt by the deposed president Mohamed Bazoum the previous night. Junta authorities claim that an unidentified group infiltrated the capital Niamey, and with the assistance of accomplices in the military, attempted to take Bazoum and his family by helicopter to Nigeria. The current whereabouts of Bazoum are unknown. So far, several arrests have been made, and a heightened security presence has been deployed around Niamey, particularly in the Tchangarey district. An elevated security presence will likely persist over the coming days, increasing disruption to citywide movement and elevating the threat of further arrests. Mounting allegations on social media from pro-putschist propagandists that France and/or the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) were behind the attempt will further undermine relations. This will sustain already elevated threats of harassment and detention against persons and entities associated with the French and other ECOWAS governments. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Oct 23. Auditor-General critical of Project Thusano. The ongoing relationship between the South African defence fraternity, in the form of the Department of Defence (DoD) and the SA National Defence Force (SANDF), and Cuba is not financially savvy, with medical, mechanical engineering and vehicle repair/refurbishment training pointed out as not up to scratch.
In one of a number of negative findings against Minister Thandi Modise’s department, Auditor-General Tsakani Maluleke’s budgetary review and recommendations report (BRRR) has it paying for 79 students to study “military medical/medicine courses” on the Caribbean island state was 136% more expensive than them studying in South Africa.
This, the BRRR states, could have resulted in an estimated saving of R122 393 291 over the study period, given as 2014 to 28 (in all probability a typographic error which should read 2018).
It continues, pointing out medical students who completed “vocational training” in Cuba are additionally enrolled at the University of Pretoria for an 18 months integration course. This is an additional cost to the DoD of R8 213 289.21, which translates to R391 109.01 for each of 21 students enrolled at the tertiary education institution.
The Auditor-General report has similar issues with other parts of the Cuba/SA bilateral agreement – Project Thusano – noting Modise’s DoD “continues to incur irregular expenditure relating to Project Thusano”. This is supported by the latest DoD annual report which has it R308 m in irregular expenditure was incurred during the 2022/23 financial year. SA procurement laws were not followed when concluding the bilateral contract with Cuba on Project Thusano, according to the Auditor-General BRRR.
The Department of Defence “did not realise the return on investment” in Cuban training for mechanical engineers. This, the A-G calculated at over R1 m each for 15 of 28 mechanical engineering students who completed their studies during 2021 and 2022. By June this year they had not been deployed in professional positions “because military dispensation for engineers and related professions did not cater for sufficient officer’s posts”.
Also on the hiccup list is official South African accreditation for 70 of 134 (52%) “tank and transport technique students” who completed vocational training in Cuba. They, at the time of the BRRR’s compilation, did not have SA Qualifications Authority (SAQA) accreditation because of “delayed application and/or no budget allocated to fund SAQA accreditation”.
The final key insight by the A-G is a telling one in terms of what was one of the first Cuba/SA bilateral agreed co-operation and work areas – vehicle maintenance and refurbishment.
“Samils preserved through Project Thusano were not stored in acceptable state for deployment – most were resting on trestles with no wheels,” is the single sentence of condemnation with one of two causes put down to lack of a needs assessment and cost benefit analysis. This would inform procurement of training for professional services and vehicle repair and maintenance, the BRRR reads.
Overall, the Auditor-General found with Thusano, “resources of the department are not used in an economical, efficient and effective way to enable best return on investment for the department and government.”
On actions and recommendations, the A-G suggests a review of the bilateral arrangement to ensure it benefits the DoD.
The other Project Thusano action/recommendation is for the DoD to “evaluate the cost and duration of professional services against those provided in South Africa to achieve the objectives of the bilateral agreement in the most economic and efficient manner”. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
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