Sponsored by Exensor
www.exensor.com
————————————————————————-
16 Feb 23. Vietnam highlights growing defence partnership with Japan.
“Vietnam always values the development of extensive strategic partnership with Japan in which bilateral defence cooperation has made solid progress,” General Cuong was quoted as saying on 13 February.
In particular, Gen Cuong noted that Vietnam was especially appreciative of Japan’s cooperation and support in education and training, capacity building, and the latter’s support in preparations for Vietnam’s participation in United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA).
Between December 2021 and January 2022, 27 JGSDF officers from Indo-Pacific Regional Policy Division of the Japanese Ministry of Defense (MoD), JGSDF Central Transportation Command, Ground Component Command’s Central Readiness Regiment, and International Peace Cooperation Activities Training Unit provided training and logistical support for the 100-strong VPA contingent that had been preparing for UNISFA.
The VPA had earlier dispatched a high-level delegation led by the Deputy Chief of the General Staff Lieutenant General Nguyen Van Nghia to Tokyo in May 2022, where he was received by Gen Yoshida.
During the latest talks, Gen Cuong and Gen Yoshida promised to continue exploring new areas of cooperation and boosting tis between the two defence forces. According to reports, some of these comprise potential collaboration in international peacekeeping missions, military medicine, cyber security, training, as well as search and rescue. Japan’s strategic interest in Vietnam was also demonstrated by the considerable presence of Japanese industry – led by the Japanese MoD’s Acquisition, Technology & Logistics Agency (ATLA) – at the inaugural Vietnam Defense 2022 exhibition in Hanoi. (Source: AMR)
16 Feb 23. Lebanon: Currency depreciation will undermine domestic purchasing power, elevate unrest risks. Today (16 February), Lebanon’s currency fell to a historic low of LBP 80,000 to the USD on the black market, falling by LBP 20,000 since the start of the month. Fuel prices have already increased in response to the depreciation, aggravating petrol station owners who threaten industrial action unless fuel is priced in USD. This comes after caretaker Energy Minister Walid Fayyad reiterated that fuel would continue to be sold in local currency to avoid violating Lebanon’s consumer protection law. The liquidity crisis, affecting foreign and local currencies, will negatively impact purchasing power and sustain the continued deterioration of Lebanon’s socio-economic health. Additional spikes in fuel and food prices will represent considerable triggers for unrest in the coming days, elevating the risk of transport and operational disruption in city centres. Foreign currency shortages will exacerbate the prevalence of black market exchanges, increasing the exposure of firms to regulatory risks associated with illegal liquidity flows. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Feb 23. Jordan: Budget will improve economic stability; structural weaknesses will sustain unrest risks. On 15 February, Jordan’s parliament passed a JOD 11.4bn (USD 16bn) budget for 2023, with 86 of the 107 present MPs voting in favour. The vote highlights the budget’s broad political support, despite criticisms of an over-reliance on taxes, aid and loans over recent months. With an increase of 8% from last year, the budget includes expanded spending on salaries and pensions. The budget’s approval will support greater macroeconomic stability for Jordan throughout this year. This is likely to be further boosted by the expected increase in revenues with the recent fiscal measures agreed upon with the IMF. Such developments will continue to boost investor confidence, while the continued commitment to IMF reforms will mitigate operational risks for businesses. However, stubbornly high levels of unemployment and price volatility of basic commodities, such as foodstuffs and fuel, will increase the likelihood of bouts of domestic unrest in the near term. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Feb 23. US-Philippines: Major joint military exercises in 2023 will likely trigger similar moves by China. According to reports citing military officials on 15 February, the US and the Philippines will carry out large-scale military exercises this year amid rising tensions in the South China Sea. The drills will reportedly be the largest carried out by the two forces since 2015. Pentagon officials stated they would enhance their efforts to strengthen the Philippines’ military and coast guard capabilities. On 2 February, the Philippines agreed to allow the US access to four of its military bases under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement (EDCA), announced during a visit by US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin to Manila. The joint exercises will almost certainly sustain heightened tensions in the South China Sea and will possibly provoke a show of force by the Chinese military during the drills. (Source: Sibylline)
16 Feb 23. South Korea defence paper calls North ‘enemy’, estimates plutonium stockpile at 70 kg. South Korea released its latest defence white paper on Thursday, describing North Korea as its “enemy” for the first time in six years and reporting an increase in Pyongyang’s stockpile of weapons-grade plutonium.
The biennial white paper offers a glimpse into the reclusive North’s growing arsenal of nuclear weapons and missiles, as well as its conventional military capabilities.
The 2022 paper revived the description of the North Korean regime and military as “our enemy,” last used in its 2016 edition, citing Pyongyang’s ongoing weapons development, cyber and military provocations and its recent portrayal of the South as an “enemy.”
“As North Korea continues to pose military threats without giving up nuclear weapons, its regime and military, which are the main agents of the execution, are our enemies,” the document said.
To beef up its nuclear stockpile, North Korea has continued reprocessing spent fuel from its reactor and possesses about 70kg (154lb) of weapons-grade plutonium, up from 50kg estimated in the previous report, it said.
The North has also secured “substantial” amounts of highly enriched uranium” and “significant level of capability” to miniaturise atomic bombs though six nuclear tests, a description that remains unchanged since 2018.
“Our military is strengthening surveillance as the possibility of an additional nuclear test is rising,” the paper said, citing the restoration last year of previously destroyed tunnels at the North’s testing site.
The paper said the North violated a 2018 inter-Korean military pact banning hostilities 15 times last year alone, including its drone intrusion in December, artillery fire inside a military buffer zone and missiles launched across the de facto maritime border into the South in November.
Its 2020 edition said the North was “generally” complying with the agreement, which was sealed on the margins of a 2018 summit between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and then-South Korean President Moon Jae-in.
The latest document noted Pyongyang’s 2022 launches of intercontinental ballistic missiles, including the new Hwasong-17 tested, but said further analysis was needed to verify whether it has acquired improved missile re-entry technology.
On Japan, the paper called it a “close neighbour that shares values” for the first time since 2016, amid efforts to mend ties strained by history and trade spats. (Source: Reuters)
15 Feb 23. El Salvador: Government approves extension of state of emergency, human rights risk remain elevated. El Salvador’s legislative assembly approved on 14 February the eleventh 30-day extension of the country’s gang-related state of emergency. The extension suspends several constitutional guarantees, including freedom of association and increases the period of pre-trial detention. It also allows authorities to monitor the correspondence and mobile phones of suspects. Authorities initially implemented the state of emergency in March 2022 following a gang-related murder spree. Since then, over 64,000 individuals suspected of being involved in gang activity have been arrested. Salvadoran humanitarian organisations have received more than 7,900 complaints of abuses, most of them arbitrary detentions. However, the strategy is broadly popular and the government is unlikely to reverse it. Human rights risks will remain elevated in the medium term. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Feb 23. Peru: State of emergency extended in Lima; risk of domestic unrest likely to remain elevated through February. On 14 February, the government of Peru extended a state of emergency decree in various regions due to ongoing domestic unrest. The affected regions include the Lima, the Constitutional Province of Callao, the Central Highway, the Pan-American Highway, the Southern Apurimac-Cusco-Arequipa Highway Corridor and the South Interoceanic Highway Corridor. This extension will remain in place until at least 15 March. The state of emergency permits the armed forces to conduct law-enforcement activities, such as managing protests. The nationwide unrest follows the arrest of former president Pedro Castillo on 7 December 2022. Protests have trended downwards in recent weeks. However, the isolated demonstrations and small-scale labour strikes are likely to continue through February. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Feb 23. The ISS Launches The Military balance 2023.
Key Findings:
• Significant losses to Russian military power, including some of its most modern equipment, particularly in its armoured fighting vehicles
• Ukraine’s artillery and armoured vehicle fleets have begun a process of transformation, thanks to Western assistance
• This is spurring the transition of East European land inventories away from Soviet-era equipment
• Poland is accelerating its military modernisation. As part of this process, South Korea has emerged as a major defence supplier in Europe
• China’s increase in military spending is its largest ever in absolute terms, and China’s military modernisation is prompting further investments by regional states
• Despite sharpening security challenges placing upward pressure on defence budgets, soaring inflation saw global spending contract by 2.1% in real terms in 2022, the second consecutive year of real decline
• European defence spending increased in real terms for the eighth consecutive year, although the rate of growth has slowed markedly from 3.5% in 2021 to 0.8% in 2022, again because of inflation effects
A year of significant military change is captured in the 2023 edition of The Military Balance, produced by The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). Published just before the first anniversary of Russia’s most recent invasion of Ukraine, our new data attempts to chart the course of that change in military forces across the globe.
Significant focus is given to Russia’s continuing invasion of Ukraine. Both countries’ armed forces have suffered attrition. For Russia, personnel losses in the early phases of the 2022 invasion have been compensated for by mobilisation, but this has meant an influx of less experienced personnel. At the same time the composition of its armoured vehicle fleet has changed, with around 50% of its pre-war fleet of T-72B3 and T-72B3M tanks, and many of its T-80s, assessed to have been lost. As a result, Russia has had to bring older equipment into service as replacements.
Russia’s failure to gain air superiority has meant its forces have had to engage targets in Ukraine from long range, with extensive use made of cruise missiles and other weapons. Air forces on both sides have suffered losses. Russia in 2022 lost some 6–8% of its active tactical combat aircraft inventory, but overall fleet size somewhat masks the loss to some individual types, including reductions reaching 10-15% for some pre-war active multirole and ground-attack aircraft fleets, such as the Su-30SM Flanker H, Su-24M/M2 Fencer D, Su-25 SM/SM3 Frogfoot and Su-34 Fullback. Ukraine had fewer combat aircraft before the war and losses have been proportionally higher; we assess it has lost around half of its pre-war active tactical combat aircraft inventory. In late 2022, Russia turned to Iran for the supply of armed UAVs and direct-attack munitions. In turn this opens the possibility that Iran’s air force may begin to modernise with Russian-origin equipment.
Ukraine’s defence of its homeland has required it to use large amounts of its Soviet-era equipment and resources from its own stocks. But the introduction of Western land systems is transforming Ukraine’s inventory and boosting its capabilities, while the transfer of Soviet-era tanks by East European states has bolstered the inventory.
Russia’s invasion has had other significant outcomes. In 2022, around 20 countries in Europe announced either immediate uplifts to defence spending or a stronger commitment to longer term spending goals. The invasion has given NATO renewed purpose; has impelled Finland and Sweden to apply to join the Alliance; and has led states in Eastern Europe to sharpen their focus on defence. Transfers of Soviet-era equipment by East European states are hastening the recapitalisation of their inventories with more modern Western military systems and, in the case of Poland, with South Korean as well as Western materiel. And assistance to Ukraine has highlighted the importance of munitions stocks and industrial capacity, in Ukraine and Russia and also in Western states.
Meanwhile, China’s military modernisation remains the principal area of concern for Washington. China’s defence spending increase of 7.0% in the 2022 budget, over 2021 figures, is its largest in absolute terms. While the new aircraft carrier attracted headlines, its investments in additional and more complex naval vessels continues apace while its air force is also improving its capabilities: numbers of J-20A combat aircraft have increased further and China has begun to field advanced military aircraft with domestically produced jet-engines.
In Asia, as in Europe, China’s military modernisation and concern over security policy is hastening military modernisation plans by regional states. South Korea is modernising its armed forces yet further, also in response to North Korea’s activities; Japan is planning to boost its military capability with additional investments and new partnerships including with the UK; and Australia continues to work with the UK and US on its plans to introduce a nuclear-powered submarine capability.
However, although military tensions and broader defence modernisation imperatives have seen defence budgets increase, soaring inflation has wiped billions from the real value of these investments and caused global defence spending to contract in real terms for the second consecutive year in 2022. Using 2015 as a base year, the effective purchasing power of global defence spending has been eroded by almost US$ 850bn cumulatively since 2017. As inflation abates, policymakers will have greater scope to pursue procurement priorities, but will still need to balance threat drivers against lingering fiscal challenges.
14 Feb 23. UAE cumulative defense investment to surpass $129bn during 2024-28, forecasts GlobalData. The UAE is the second largest investor in defense sector after Saudi Arabia in the Middle Eastern region with a total budget of $23.2bn in 2023. The total forecasted investment of $129.3bn over the period 2024-28 reflects the UAE’s plans to equip itself with advanced arms and equipment, primarily to deter Iran from taking an aggressive posture and fortify its national security against Yemeni insurgent group, says GlobalData, a leading data and analytics company.
GlobalData’s latest report, “The UAE Defense Market Size and Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Key Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2023-28,” Australia Defense Market Size and Trends, Budget Allocation, Regulations, Key Acquisitions, Competitive Landscape and Forecast, 2022-27’ reveals that the country’s increasing military expenditure makes it one of the most lucrative defense markets in the Middle Eastern region. The country’s acquisition expenditure, which recorded $4.1bn in 2023, is anticipated to grow at a CAGR of 5.7% to reach $5.1bn in 2028. (Source: GlobalData)
13 Feb 23. UK delegation supports ‘atmanirbharta’ at Aero India.
The UK defence sector has turned up in force at India’s premier air show, Aero India, in a demonstration of the strong intent to accelerate collaboration with India across research, development and training.
Over the course of the week, the delegation will engage a range of Indian stakeholders to reiterate the UK’s ambition to not only make in India but also to ‘Create in India’. The UK delegation will take discussions forward on key offers that are being explored for collaboration, such as strategic partnership for a jet engine development programme and maritime electric propulsion technology.
The Royal Air Force (RAF) looks forward to welcoming the Indian Air Force (IAF) to the UK for exercise Cobra Warrior next month. This will be the first time that the IAF would be participating in the multilateral air combat exercise, which will see participation of air forces from 17 nations.
The UK delegation, which is led by Minister for Defence Procurement Alex Chalk, comprises representatives from Government, military, and the defence industry. This includes Air Vice-Marshal Richard Maddison of the Royal Air Force and British manufacturing giants such as Rolls Royce, BAE Systems, MBDA UK, Thales UK, Collins Aerospace and Leonardo.
The delegation travelled to Bengaluru following their participation at the UP Global Investors Summit, of which the UK was a country partner, to unlock investment potential in India’s northern defence corridor.
Alex Chalk, Minister for Defence Procurement, said:
As we continue to build the UK-India Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, I’m hugely excited to attend Aero India – another key opportunity to demonstrate the UK’s commitment to developing strong bilateral relations and deliver on the 2030 Roadmap.
Recent collaborations on exercise with the Indian Navy, Army and Air Force underpin the strength of our two nations’ commitment to working together to promote a free, open and secure Indo-Pacific region.
Alex Ellis, British High Commissioner to India, said: “I heard today Prime Minister Modi’s vision to build India’s indigenous defence capabilities; the UK is the right partner to realise that ambition – through sharing knowledge, increasing interoperability, more training and exercising – and through increased industrial collaboration, including through design and make in India.”
The UK is committed to partner with India in its journey towards becoming atmanirbhar in its defence and security needs.
Further Information
• Free-to-use high resolution images of the UK delegation at Aero India will be uploaded here.
• The British companies at Aero India are: Rolls Royce, BAE Systems, MBDA UK, Thales UK, Leonardo, Smiths Detection, Strongfield Technologies, ASL, Reliance Precision and Ricardo.
• The UK-India Defence Industry Joint Working Group, which held its inaugural meeting at Defence Expo in Gandhinagar last year, is helping accelerate collaboration between the countries, including through the integration of Indian defence suppliers by UK industry into their global supply chain.
• The Royal Navy’s offshore patrol vessel, HMS Tamar, sailed to the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on 6 January as part of its permanent deployment in the Indo-Pacific. It also conducted a maritime exercise with the Indian Navy. HMS Tamar is one of two Royal Navy vessels on permanent deployment in the Indo-Pacific as set out in the UK’s Integrated Review.
• In September 2022, the Royal Air Force conducted a subject matter expertise exchange with India’s Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) during the visit of Eurofighter Typhoon, Voyager and A400 in New Delhi and also held joint-flying exercises with the Indian Air Force (IAF).
• UK’s first Open General Export Licence (OGEL) in the Indo-Pacific was issued to India last year. The OGEL helps reduce bureaucracy and shorten delivery times for defence procurement. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
13 Feb 23. Ethiopia: Government’s unlikely to resolve religious tensions, sustaining violence, bystander risks in Oromia. On 12 February, the Orthodox Church in Ethiopia called off the demonstrations planned for the same day, after the government agreed to solve the relevant issue immediately. In January, violent protests occurred in Oromia after three church officials declared themselves archbishops and established their own governing body. Protests intensified after Oromia special forces attacked a church in Shashamene, around 150 miles (240 km) south of Addis Ababa on 4 February, killing eight. It is likely that the government would be dependent on the military to solve the current religious tensions. Whilst the government maintains a military presence in Tigray amid anxieties over violations of the ceasefire agreement during ongoing negotiations, it likely has insufficient resources to address the violence in Oromia. Violence will likely worsen the security environment in Oromia amid the ethno-nationalist conflict and sustain heightened threats of attacks against foreign nationals and assets (Sibylline Situation Update Brief – 6 February 2023). (Source: Sibylline)
13 Feb 23. Niger: Attack in Tillabéri region amid weakened counter-insurgency efforts heightens security risks for NGO workers . On 10 February, armed assailants attacked troops on patrol in the south-western town of Banibangou, in rural Ouallam, Tillaberi region, killing at least ten with around 18 still missing. Niger’s defence minister announced that air force support forced the insurgents to flee into Mali. The Tillaberi region, bordering Mali and Burkina Faso, neighbours the Tahoua region in Niger, where jihadists stormed the Tazalit refugee camp, killing nine on 1 February. While France has retained around 3,000 troops in Niger and Chad, allowing the countries to maintain aerial capabilities, its withdrawal from Mali and Burkina Faso has weakened counter-insurgency efforts in the region. As jihadist groups continue to expand in Burkina Faso and Mali, further attacks are likely, particularly in Niger’s border regions. This underlines heightened security risks for NGO workers operating in the rural areas of Niger, particularly at refugee camps which jihadists have previously targeted. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Feb 23. Philippines-China: Heightened tensions in South China Sea raise security risks for energy, fishing operations. On 13 February, the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) reported an incident on 6 February involving a China Coast Guard (CCG) ship shining a military-grade laser at a PCG vessel on a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal, part of the contested Spratly Islands in the South China Sea. Photos published by the PCG corroborated its claim, labelling the CCG’s actions as ‘offensive’ and ‘unsafe’. The incident occurred amid growing competition in the South China Sea (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 8 February 2023). This latest incident will likely undermine recent diplomatic efforts to prevent crisis escalation involving disputed territories in the South China Sea. Perceived increasing aggression from China will also drive the momentum for Manila to forge closer defence cooperation with US and Japanese forces, including joint patrols. Increasing militarisation of the South China Sea will sustain regional tensions, with hydrocarbon and commercial fishing operations in contested waters facing a greater risk of harassment. (Source: Sibylline)
10 Feb 23. On 9 February, a United Nations (UN) report analysing the threat posed by the Islamic State revealed that the Centre/South Asia chapter of the group – the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) – has threatened to attack the embassies of Iran, China and India in Kabul.
SIGNIFICANCE
• ISIS-K in its publication Voice of Khorasan has on multiple occasions threatened countries cooperating with the Afghan Taliban government. It has also carried out attacks on Russian and Pakistani embassies following respective diplomatic engagements, as well as the Logan hotel and Afghanistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs, in a bid to disrupt negotiations on economic cooperation between the Taliban and Beijing (see Sibylline Alert – 12 December 2022).
• The UN report has come at a time of elevated concerns by foreign diplomatic missions in Kabul of a growing ISIS-K threat. Saudi Arabian diplomats last week reportedly vacated Kabul due to an unconfirmed security threat by ISIS-K (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 7 February 2023). Without an official explanation from Riyadh on the withdrawal, local sources have revealed confusion among several diplomatic staff, though no other mission thus far has withdrawn from Kabul.
• The ISIS-K threat highlighted by the UN is of particular significance going forward with the conclusion on 8 February of the fifth round of multilateral consultations on Afghanistan held in Moscow. Representatives of several Central Asian countries as well as those mentioned as under threat by the UN report attended the meeting. In other important developments, India last week announced USD 25 million in development aid to Afghanistan in its federal budget, while Iran is expected to inaugurate a trade centre in Kabul next month. (Source: Sibylline)
————————————————————————-
Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company
————————————————————————-