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02 Jan 23. North Korea’s Kim sacks No. 2 military official. North Korea has sacked Pak Jong Chon, the second most powerful military official after leader Kim Jong Un, state media reported.
Pak, vice chairman of the Central Military Commission of the ruling Workers’ Party and a secretary of the party’s Central Committee, was replaced by Ri Yong Gil at the committee’s annual meeting last week, the official KCNA news agency said on Sunday.
No reason for the change was given. Pyongyang regularly revamps its leadership and the year-end party gathering has often been used to announce personnel reshuffles and major policy decisions.
State television showed Pak sitting in the front row of the podium with his head down during the meeting while other members raised their hands to vote on personnel issues. His seat was later shown unoccupied.
He was also absent in photos released on Monday by the official KCNA news agency of Kim’s New Year’s Day visit to the Kumsusan Palace of the Sun which houses the bodies of his grandfather and father, unlike in October when Pak accompanied Kim on a trip to the palace to mark a party anniversary.
The party’s Central Military Commission, which is headed by Kim, is considered the country’ most powerful military decision-making body, above the defence ministry.
Pak’s replacement came as Kim called for developing new intercontinental ballistic missiles and a larger nuclear arsenal to counter the United States and South Korea as key to the isolated country’s 2023 defence strategy.
Pak had rapidly moved up the military ladder from a one-star artillery commander in 2015 to a four-star general in 2020, taking credit for contributing to progress in the country’s short-range missile technology.
In late 2020, Pak was promoted to the politburo and earned the title of marshal, the highest military rank under Kim, and became a leading voice last November against joint South Korea-U.S. military exercises.
Like most other top military aides who went through ups and downs repeatedly under Kim, Pak was briefly demoted in mid-2021 after Kim chided some officials for their handling of North Korea’s anti-coronavirus policy, before being promoted again months later.
Pak’s dismissal comes despite Kim mostly lauding the military’s advances in weapons development during the meeting, unlike other areas where he pointed out some faults and called for improvement.
Oh Gyeong-sup, a fellow at the Korea Institute for National Unification in Seoul, said a recent flare-up in inter-Korea tension over North Korean drones’ intrusion into the South could have played a role.
Officials in Seoul said South Korea sent three drones across the border in response to the intrusion, but there was no response from the North, which Oh said could mean that it failed to detect the aircraft.
“Pak might have taken responsibility for the failure of security operations,” Oh said.
Ri, Pak’s successor, is also a senior military commander who held key positions including chief of the army’s general staff and defence minister. (Source: Reuters)
30 Dec 22. Vladimir Putin and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping have pledged to deepen bilateral ties, which the Russian president hailed as the “greatest in all history” as they held a joint video conference on Friday. In an annual end-of-year video call, held in the 11th month of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the Chinese leader made a veiled reference to what he called “a complicated and quite controversial” international situation, but said his country’s strategic partnership with Russia would be strengthened. Putin’s faltering invasion of Ukraine has made Russia increasingly reliant on China to balance the effect of western sanctions that have largely cut Moscow off from international markets and global supply chains. Although Putin acknowledged Xi’s “concerns” about Ukraine at their last in-person meeting in September, China has refrained from condemning Russia over the invasion and cast blame for the war on western support for Kyiv. China has also stepped up its purchases of Russian oil exports at a discount, helping to offset the effect of western sanctions on the Kremlin’s budget revenues. Xi said he appreciated what he described as Russia’s continued willingness to resolve the Ukraine war through negotiations, adding that China was prepared to help resolve the crisis.
“The road to peace talks will not be smooth, but as long as the efforts are not given up, the prospect of peace will always exist,” Xi said. “China will continue to uphold an objective and fair stance, work to bring together the international community, and play a constructive role in peacefully resolving the Ukrainian crisis,” he added. Efforts at peace talks effectively collapsed in April following credible accusations of widespread atrocities against civilians in towns Russia’s armed forces had previously occupied. More recently, Putin has cast blame on Kyiv for ducking negotiations and insisted Moscow was ready to end the war after humiliating retreats from parts of four frontline provinces in south-eastern Ukraine that Russia had attempted to annex. The Kremlin has insisted it will begin talks only if Ukraine accepts Russia’s control over the regions, making the notion a non-starter for Kyiv, which wants to retake the territory as a precondition for negotiations. China’s growing strategic rivalry with the west over Xi’s claim on Taiwan, the democratic self-ruled island off China’s coast, and US sanctions on its technology industry have made Beijing reluctant to break with Moscow. Putin said Russia’s partnership with China was “gaining in significance as a stabilising factor in conditions of rising geopolitical tensions”, while Xi said the two sides should “closely co-ordinate and co-operate in international affairs” and oppose unilateralism, adding “sanctions and interference were doomed to fail”, in a swipe at Washington. Xi is expected to meet Putin in Russia in the spring, continuing a tradition of rotating annual visits since he became general secretary of China’s Communist party in 2012. (Source: FT.com)
30 Dec 22. Israel: Right-Religious cabinet.
EVENT
On 29 December, Israel’s Knesset swore in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for the sixth time, as members voted in favour of his cabinet by 63 out of 120 votes. 54 Members of the Knesset (MKs) voted against the new government.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The official ceremony comes after Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu informed President Isaac Herzog that he had formed a right-religious government on 22 December (see Sibylline Alert – 22 December 2022). Israel’s new cabinet consists of a conservative and ultra-Orthodox coalition, including Bezalel Smotrich from the Religious Zionism party as finance minister, and Itamar Ben-Gvir as national security minister.
- The new cabinet will improve government stability in the short term. The vote of confidence will facilitate the approval of a state budget by MKs and sustain foreign policy continuity, including the expansion of economic ties across Abraham Accords countries.
- Russia and the US have welcomed Netanyahu’s electoral success, with President Biden reasserting his support for a two-state solution between Israel and the Palestinian Territories. Alternatively, Jordan’s King Abdullah II has asserted that bilateral ties are contingent on the Palestinian question and regional economic cooperation.
- Prime Minister Netanyahu’s priority to expand West Bank settlements will further inflame ethno-sectarian tensions between Israeli settlers and Palestinian communities, amid a period of heightened violence (see Sibylline Alert – 23 November 2022).
FORECAST
In the immediate term, the vote of confidence will sustain the volatile security environment in the West Bank. The expansion of Israeli settlements in the Palestinian Territories will elevate the likelihood of sporadic attacks, particularly in the vicinity of construction sites and Israeli communities. Inflamed ethno-religious tensions will heighten physical security risks to business staff and assets, particularly due to the uptick in live fire exchanges and explosives. In addition, controversial policy announcements and/or escalations in violence will increase the threat of pro-Palestinian activist groups targeting Israel-affiliated companies across Europe, particularly in the UK, France and Germany.
The appointment of ultraconservative ministers will pose concerns over social issues, including LGBTQI+ and sexual reproductive rights. There is a high likelihood that this will negatively impact the outlook of LGBTQI+ tourism, while also elevating duty of care risks for businesses with personnel operating in-country.
Sustained geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel will persist amid the appointment of ultraconservative policies, as Netanyahu alluded to Israel’s ‘readiness’ to attack Iran within 24 months. Renewed tensions with Iran will elevate the likelihood of tit-for-tat hostilities in the coming months, particularly in the form of cyber attacks or maritime threats on vessels associated with Israel (see Sibylline Alert – 16 November 2022). Israel’s relations with the US are unlikely to change in the near term, but Netanyahu’s failure to moderate ultraconservative policies threatens to isolate moderate American allies in the latter half of 2023. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Dec 22. Pakistan: Militant Threat.
EVENT
Following the recent attack by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) in Islamabad (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 23 December 2022), the government has significantly boosted security measures in the capital. The decision also follows a string of advisories by embassies such as the US, UK, Australia and Saudi Arabia to not visit the Marriot Hotel in Islamabad due to the threat of an attack. Embassy staff have also been told to restrict their movement in the capital.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Due to rising security concerns, the police have issued a ‘special’ security plan for the capital. 25 additional security checkpoints have been introduced across the city. Surveillance cameras in metro stations and buses are being used to monitor all passengers using public transport services. Police are also monitoring vehicles that have suspicious number plates or that are found to be unregistered.
- In the ‘red zone’ (see figure 1 above), which houses most government buildings and foreign embassies, police patrols have been significantly increased. Police have also been authorised to use their phone cameras to record people entering the area, metro stations and bus depots until additional cameras are installed. All entry and exit points in the red zone are being strictly monitored by police.
- The government is trying to identify all foreign nationals living in the city. Landlords and employers are being asked to register foreign tenants and/or employees at the nearest police station. Police maintain that employers with unregistered workers will be investigated. Foreign nationals have also been told to always carry identification on them, particularly while moving around the capital.
- The TTP continues to be the most pressing threat to Pakistan’s domestic security. Interior Minister Ranna Sanaullah said that between 7,000-10,000 fighters now reside in the country. The TTP are also recruiting suicide bombers in Afghanistan to carry out attacks in Pakistan. While border provinces retain the highest risk, the attack in Islamabad on 23 December indicates that the TTP will also endeavour to carry out high-profile attacks in the capital. Earlier this week, it released a video on its social media channels of a TTP fighter watching Parliament with the message ‘we’re coming’.
FORECAST
After the security plan was put into place, the TTP released a statement saying they had no ‘foreign agenda’ and that their fight was with the Pakistani security forces. However, there remains an elevated threat to foreign nationals as the TTP will likely target five-star hotels and restaurants in a bid to undermine Pakistan’s security and intelligence capabilities. The heightened threat of attacks in Islamabad also spills over to the neighbouring city of Rawalpindi, where Pakistan’s military establishment primarily operates out of. Other high-profile targets include important government buildings in the red zone and crowded areas like university campuses, markets, and mosques. Increased surveillance activities will likely infringe on the privacy of foreign workers in Islamabad. New compliance mandates will also result in minor disruptions to their movement around the capital. The spike in terrorist activity will contribute to domestic political instability with Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party using the rise in attacks in its anti-government campaign. With a series of other issues such as energy shortages, as well as growing unrest in Gwadar, Baluchistan resulting in severe disruptions in the port city, the government will likely undertake increased counter-terrorism operations in the coming weeks to improve their domestic standing. (Source: Sibylline)
28 Dec 22. South Korea must respond to N. Korea despite its nuclear arms: President Yoon. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol said on Wednesday that any provocation by North Korea must be met with retaliation without hesitation despite its nuclear weapons, his office said, after an intrusion by North Korean drones.
Five North Korean drones crossed into South Korea on Monday, prompting South Korea’s military to scramble fighter jets and attack helicopters to try to shoot them down, in the first such intrusion since 2017.
“We must punish and retaliate against any provocation by North Korea. That is the most powerful means to deter provocations,” Yoon said in a meeting with his aides, according to his press secretary Kim Eun-hye.
“We must not fear or hesitate because North Korea has nuclear weapons,” he said.
Monday’s intrusion triggered criticism in South Korea of its air defences. Yoon chided the military, in particular its failure to bring down the drones while they flew over South Korea for hours.
South Korea responded on Monday by sending drones over North Korea for three hours.
Defence Minister Lee Jong-sup told parliament on Wednesday that Yoon had ordered him to send drones into North Korea in response to any incursion “even if that means risking escalation”.
South Korea’s military has apologised for its response and said it could not shoot down the drones because they were too small.
Relations between North Korea and U.S. ally South Korea have been testy for decades but have grown even more tense since Yoon’s conservative government took over in May promising a tougher line with the northern rival.
North Korea has also been pressing on with the development of its weapons with numerous missile tests this year amid speculation it could test a nuclear weapon for a seventh time.
Earlier on Wednesday, South Korea’s defence ministry announced plans to spend 560 bn won ($441.26 m) over the next five years to improve its defences against drones, including the development of an airborne laser weapon and a signal jammer.
South Korea will also expand its drone capabilities to three squadrons.
South Korea also aims to procure more stealth jets and ballistic missile submarines and to accelerate the development of systems to intercept rockets, the ministry said.
“We will strengthen our … retaliation capability to be able to destroy key facilities anywhere in North Korea in case of its nuclear attack or use of weapons of mass destruction,” the ministry said in a statement.
In total, the ministry aims to spend 331.4trn won ($261bn) on defence over the next five years, with an average annual increase of 6.8%. This year’s budget stood at 54.6trn won. Defence expenditures are subject to parliamentary approval. ($1 = 1,269.1000 won) (Source: Reuters)
28 Dec 22. RoK: N. Korean drones.
EVENT
On 28 December, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol ordered the South Korean military to respond in kind to future provocative activity from North Korean unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), by sending ‘two or three’ drones across the border for each one sent by North Korea. This follows an incident on 26 December where five drones entered South Korean airspace for the first time since 2017.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The five North Korean drones reportedly crossed the western part of the Military Demarcation Line (MDL) near Gimpo, with one reaching the northwestern area of the Seoul Metropolitan region, while the other four eventually disappeared from radar near Ganghwa Island (see Figure 1).
- The South Korean military was unable to shoot down any of the five drones, despite scrambling fighter jets and attack helicopters to counter the incursion and firing over a hundred rounds. South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) also announced that they ‘deployed manned and unmanned reconnaissance assets’ north of the border to find out how the incident occurred. In addition, around 30 commercial flights were delayed at the international airports of Gimpo and Incheon (the main international airport serving Seoul), due to the drones.
- Tensions are escalated in the Korean peninsula, with a record number of missile tests being carried out by Pyongyang in 2022. There have also been warnings from intelligence agencies that North Korea is preparing to resume nuclear testing.
FORECAST
There has been increased domestic scrutiny of South Korea’s response to the incursion, with the military admitting that they have limitations in countering small UAVs. As a result, Seoul has indicated it will prioritise improving anti-drone capacity to prevent such activity from repeating, however a significant improvement is unlikely to be imminent. The Defense Ministry stated it will seek to purchase anti-drone laser systems, as well as carry out practice drills focused on anti-drone operations.
For North Korea, the use of UAVs to provoke Seoul and force them to mobilise military resources may be assessed as an occasional low-cost alternative to missile tests. Future drone use from North Korea also has the potential to disrupt air traffic in the areas near the border, including near the capital of Seoul. This would include temporary delays to flights. However, despite the provocative behaviour from Pyongyang and South Korean President Yoon’s desire to take a hardline stance, neither side will aim to escalate the situation into direct armed conflict.
(Source: Sibylline)
28 Dec 22. North Korea’s Kim unveils new military goals at key party meeting -KCNA. North Korean leader Kim Jong Un unveiled new goals for the country’s military for 2023 at an ongoing meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party, state media reported on Wednesday, hinting at another year of intensive weapons tests and tension.
On the second day of the Sixth Enlarged Plenary Meeting of the party’s 8th Central Committee, Kim reviewed the “newly created challenging situation” on the Korean peninsula and the broader political landscapes, the report said.
The third-generation leader set the direction for the “anti-enemy struggle” and goals for reinforcing defence power, it added.
“He specified the principles of foreign affairs and the direction of the struggle against the enemy that our party and government must thoroughly abide by in order to protect sovereign rights and defend national interests,” the official KCNA news agency said.
“New core goals for strengthening self-defensive capabilities to be strongly pursued in 2023 have been presented in preparation for diverse fluctuations in the political situation.”
KCNA did not provide details on those goals, but Kim’s remarks could indicate the isolated country will continue to accelerate its military buildup.
North Korea has fired an unprecedented number of missiles this year, and many launches were designed to develop “top priority” strategic weapons under a five-year plan laid out at a Workers’ Party congress in early 2021.
The list includes tactical nuclear weapons, a new intercontinental ballistic missile, hypersonic gliding flight warheads, nuclear-powered submarines and a reconnaissance satellite.
Tension remained high throughout this year amid the North’s constant weapons tests, and it flared again this week after five North Korean drones crossed into South Korea, prompting Seoul to scramble fighter jets and attack helicopters, and try to shoot them down.
During the plenary meeting, Kim also pointed out “a series of serious shortcomings” observed in such areas as science, education and health this year, and suggested ways to overcome them and raised key tasks for next year, KCNA said.
North Korean leaders previously made speeches on New Year Day, but in recent years, Kim has called days-long party gatherings at the end of the year to announce major policy decisions.
The economy is high on the agenda, with Kim facing mounting pressure from international sanctions, the fallout from an anti-coronavirus lockdown and natural disasters. (Source: Reuters)
26 Dec 22. Taiwan reports China’s largest incursion yet to air defence zone. Seventy-one Chinese air force aircraft including fighter jets and drones entered Taiwan’s air defence identification zone in the past 24 hours, the island’s government said on Monday, the largest reported incursion to date.
Of the aircraft, 43 also crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line, an unofficial buffer between the two sides that lies within the defence zone, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry said in a report, as Beijing continues military activities close to the Chinese-claimed island.
The White House said the United States was concerned by China’s military activity near Taiwan, which it called “provocative” and “destabilising,” adding that it risked miscalculations and undermined regional stability.
Taiwan’s official Central News Agency said it was the largest Chinese air force incursion to date, although there was no sense of alarm on the island, which has witnessed a steady increase in Chinese pressure in recent years.
China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory, said it had conducted “strike drills” in the sea and airspace around Taiwan on Sunday in response to what it said was provocation from the democratically governed island and the United States.
Taiwan, which strongly rejects China’s sovereignty claims, said the drills showed Beijing was destroying regional peace and trying to intimidate Taiwan’s people.
A senior Taiwan official familiar with security planning in the region told Reuters that Taiwan assessed China had staged the military “provocation” to express anger at a new U.S. defence authorisation law that boosts military assistance for Taiwan.
The person, who declined to be identified as the information was not made public, said during the drills China’s air force dispatched warplanes from several locations across the country to carry out simulated attacks on Taiwanese and U.S. warships.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The office of Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said Tsai will call a high-level national security meeting on Tuesday morning to discuss reinforcing the island’s civil defence system, followed by a press conference on new civil defence measures.
The statement gave no details, but the defence ministry has said it was considering extending compulsory military service beyond four months, as the war in Ukraine and rising tensions with Beijing renewed discussion about how to respond to Chinese military pressure.
“The more preparations we make, the less likely there will be rash attempts of aggression. The more united we are, the stronger and safer Taiwan would become,” Tsai told a military ceremony on Monday.
“We (U.S.) will continue to assist Taiwan in maintaining a sufficient self-defense capability in line with our long-standing commitments and consistent with our one China policy,” the White House National Security Council said on Monday.
During the latest incursion, several Chinese planes, mostly fighter jets, briefly crossed the median line in the sensitive Taiwan Strait before returning to China, according to a map provided by Taiwan’s defence ministry. Seven Chinese navy ships were also detected near Taiwan, the ministry said.
China’s military also sent early warning, electronic-warfare and antisubmarine aircraft, as well as drones, into Taiwan’s southern air defence identification zone, or ADIZ, according to the report, which detailed Chinese activities near Taiwan over the 24 hours to 6 a.m. (2200 GMT on Sunday).
Taipei has complained of repeated missions by the Chinese air force over the last two years, often in southern areas of its ADIZ.
Taiwan sent unspecified combat aircraft to warn away the Chinese planes, while missile systems monitored their flight, the ministry said, using standard wording for its response.
Taiwan’s benchmark stock index (.TWII) brushed off the latest tensions, ending Monday up 0.1%. However, China’s CSI Defence Index (.CSI399973) marked its best day in two months on Monday, rising 3.7%.
China has stepped up its diplomatic, military and economic pressure in recent years on the self-governed island to accept Beijing’s rule. Taiwan’s government says it wants peace but will defend itself if attacked. (Source: Reuters)
27 Dec 22. North Korea’s weapons programme defies COVID outbreak, reaches ‘uncharted territory.’
North Korea forged ahead with its missile programme in 2022 and took steps toward resuming testing of nuclear bombs, as world events including the COVID pandemic and war fractured the already tenuous international pressure against it.
The country acknowledged its first COVID-19 outbreak in May, prolonging already stringent border closures and other anti-pandemic measures, blocking international engagement and causing economic woes, but doing little to slow its weapons tests.
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The true extent of COVID there remains unconfirmed amid a lack of testing and independent monitoring.
This year provided the clearest evidence yet that North Korea now regards itself as a permanent nuclear weapons power and that Pyongyang has no intention of engaging the United States in denuclearisation talks, said Evans Revere, a former U.S. diplomat.
“We are in dangerous and uncharted territory when it comes to the North Korean threat,” he said. “The possibility of denuclearising North Korea has all but disappeared.”
North Korea resumed testing intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) for the first time since 2017, successfully launching the massive new Hwasong-17, which is believed to have the range to strike anywhere in the United States.
Pyongyang rolled out a series of increasingly capable short-range missiles as well, in what it says is a strategy to deploy tactical nuclear weapons.
North Korea also made preparations to reopen its shuttered nuclear test site, raising the prospect of a new nuclear bomb test for the first time since 2017.
With the world distracted by the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, and rising competition between Washington and Beijing, the testing seems aimed at making real strides in enhancing the country’s military power, analysts said.
“North Korea could at least pretended that it was open to dialogue, but this hasn’t been the case,” said Ramon Pacheco Pardo, a Korea expert at King’s College London. “I think that the Kim regime simply wants to improve its capabilities, no matter the consequences.”
WHY IT MATTERS
North Korea has for years been banned from conducting nuclear tests and ballistic missile launches by the United Nations Security Council, which had strengthened sanctions on Pyongyang.
In May, however, China and Russia vetoed a U.S.-led push to impose more U.N. sanctions on North Korea, publicly splitting the council for the first time since it started punishing Pyongyang in 2006.
The United States and its allies in South Korea and Japan have since turned to displays of military force, including joint drills and deployments of U.S. aircraft carriers and long-range bombers, in a so-far futile effort to deter Pyongyang’s testing.
North Korea’s missile tests have allowed it to refine and in some cases operationally deploy new capabilities that enable the rapid and first use of nuclear weapons in the event of both conventional and nuclear attacks, said Duyeon Kim, of the U.S.-based Center for a New American Security.
“Tactical nuclear weapons are dangerous because they can start a war whether it’s by miscalculation, retaliation, or preemption, and the threshold for nuclear-weapons use would be even lower,” she said.
WHAT DOES IT MEAN FOR 2023?
As North Korea opens up to trade and travel again it will likely continue to side with China and Russia and be less concerned with engagement with the United States and South Korea, Pacheco Pardo said.
If it’s true that Pyongyang expects the pandemic to last through 2024, then next year may see continued tensions.
“We may see more weapons tests, chest-thumping posturing, and threats until it feels virus-safe to return to negotiations and readily armed with even more political leverage to extract big concessions or indefinite recognition as a nuclear power,” Duyeon Kim said. (Source: Reuters)
23 Dec 22. South Korea ramps up arms exports in goal to become world supplier. Amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, the rising demand for arms among Western countries has presented an unprecedented opportunity for South Korea’s defense industry to become a top arms seller and global player.
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South Korean defense companies more than doubled their foreign sales this year, with the biggest arms export deal to date struck with Poland during the summer. The first shipment of K2 battle tanks and K9 self-propelled howitzers arrived in Poland this month, and President Andrzej Duda hailed South Korea as a country that could serve up sought-after weapons fast. During a ceremony, he welcomed the “quick delivery of crucial importance” given Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
South Korea is increasingly favored as an affordable provider to nations seeking to refill stockpiles depleted of Soviet-era weapons. The country’s arms exports this year topped $17 bn in November, far surpassing a record $7.25 bn last year. Of those sales, the deal with Poland accounted for $12.4 bn, followed by a $1.7 bn deal with Egypt.
The South Korean minister of arms procurement, Eom Dong-hwan, said the “world is watching with attention” the budding defense cooperation between his country and Poland. The Polish government purchased nearly 1,000 K2 tanks, dozens of FA-50 jets, and hundreds of K9 howitzers and Chunmoo multiple rocket launchers, and Eom voiced hope that the equipment will contribute to the nation’s deterrence at a time of “rapid changes in the security situation.”
South Korea’s defense industry has its origins in Cold War-era hostilities with rival North Korea in the mid-1940s. The South, initially armed by U.S. forces to fight the Soviet-backed North during the Korean War, was pursuing its own weapons systems as the United States reduced its military presence in the early 1990s. The threat of conflict with the North remains a prime industry focus today.
“As a country that technically remains in a state of war, South Korea has a distinctive capability for mass production of arms that can be promptly deployed in actual warfare,” said Choi Gi-il, a military expert at Sangji University in South Korea. Government support has given the industry a “decisive competitive edge,” with the global arms market taking note of the weapons’ performance as well as their cost-effectiveness, according to Choi.
“This past year in Ukraine was sort of a coming-out party, this public unveiling of what was very well underway [in Korea] and underappreciated publicly. But it’s not just Poland. They’re winning in the Middle East. They’re winning in Southeast Asia,” said Rexon Ryu, the president of the Asia Group in Washington who served as chief of staff to U.S. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel in the Obama administration.
South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol announced in August that the country aims to rise four spots in the rankings to become the world’s fourth-largest arms exporter by 2027. As part of the plan, Seoul this month unveiled a funding package of $770 m to support investment and research. Yoon and his defense officials said Australia, Norway and other countries are looking to work with South Korean weapon producers.
South Korean defense companies often say they want to become the “Hyundai of defense exports,” a reference to the South Korean automaker that initially filled a niche by making affordable sedans to compete with giants such as Toyota and Ford. Hyundai is today a top global automaker, including of electric vehicles.
At the Pentagon, talk turns to ‘the end of the Kim Jong Un regime’
The country’s defense industry aspires to coordinate with and sell to the United States. Some U.S. defense companies are watching closely to see where South Korea may become competitive with American firms — particularly if, as Biden administration officials foresee, future needs mean seeking solutions outside of the strapped domestic defense industry.
Bill LaPlante, undersecretary of defense for acquisition and sustainment, told a crowd of lawmakers, analysts and military officers at the Reagan National Defense Forum this month that he now meets regularly with counterparts from allies and partners to discuss more weapons “co-production” and “co-development” because of the Ukraine war.
“There is this recognition that we are all going to need to do this together,” LaPlante said. “We’re going to have to be comfortable using equipment developed in another country in our own military, and vice versa.”
South Korean defense companies’ far-reaching sales pitch has not targeted Ukraine as a potential direct consumer. Wary of its bilateral relations with Moscow, the Yoon government has said it will not send lethal weapons to Ukraine despite Kyiv’s repeated requests.
“The benefits [of that position] are much, much bigger” than the risks of angering Russian President Vladimir Putin, noted Go Myong-hyun, a research fellow at the Asan Institute for Policy Studies in Seoul.
Still, Korean weapons are making their way into Ukraine via other countries. South Korea is poised to send the United States 155mm howitzer shells that will be destined for Ukraine under a confidential deal the Wall Street Journal disclosed last month. The South Korean Defense Ministry said discussions were underway “on the understanding that the U.S. would be the end user.” (Source: glstrade.com/New York Times.com)
23 Dec 22. Mali: Withdrawal of armed groups from peace talks will empower jihadist groups. On 22 December, the CSP-PSD, a coalition of the primary armed groups which signed the 2015 Algiers accord with the Malian government announced its withdrawal from the associated peace talks. The CSP-PSD stated that the decision was prompted by delays in implementation, particularly around the issue of northern autonomy, but that it would return to talks if held under international mediation in a neutral country. By keeping open the possibility of returning to the talks, a full breakdown of the peace and a resumption of widespread conflict is unlikely, though there is a possibility of skirmishes between the Malian military and CSP-PSD militias. The announcement will also disrupt cooperation between Tuareg groups and the government, further enhancing the freedom of movement of jihadist groups in northern and central Mali. However, even if talks are opened, the likely passage of the constitutional referendum in March will threaten long-term cooperation. (Source: Sibylline)23 Dec 22. Pakistan: Attack in Islamabad highlights TTP’s bid to expand operations outside border areas. On 23 December, two individuals belonging to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) undertook a suicide bomb attack in Islamabad’s 1-10 / 4 sector, killing one policeman and injuring at least six others. The bombers were likely on their way to a high-profile target when the car, registered as a taxi, was stopped by security personnel. The TTP said the attack was to avenge the killing of its leader Omar Khalid Khorasan and more attacks could be anticipated. The incident is significant as thus far, TTP activity has largely been in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. It will also likely increase TTP’s popularity at a time when its recruitment drive has successfully resulted in 22 local separatist groups joining its fold since July 2022. Security checks in Islamabad will likely become stricter going forward as the police have advised carrying identification documents while travelling. The TTP’s attempt to expand operations also raises the likelihood of counterterrorism operations by Pakistani authorities. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Dec 22. Kenya: Threat of al-Shabaab attacks will likely persist in cross-border counties. On 21 December, al-Shabaab fighters killed two police officers and a civilian in an improvised explosive device (IED) and small arms attack near Bura (Garissa county), 75 miles (120km) southwest of the Somali border. The recent attack is consistent with the group’s sustained campaign to pressure Kenya to withdraw its forces from Somalia, and demonstrate local capability in order to retain influence over displaced Somali communities in Kenya. Ongoing government offensives in central Somalia are likely to degrade al-Shabaab’s capacity to conduct attacks in Kenya in the medium term, however, the threat of cross-border raids will likely continue over the coming months. The incident does not underline an increased threat of attack in Nairobi with operations highly likely to be limited to Kenya’s border counties, particularly targeting security personnel and assets. This will drive incidental risks to staff, particularly during overland movement. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Dec 22. Kazakhstan-Uzbekistan: Bilateral agreements will bolster regional cooperation, but separate border issues will remain key driver of clashes in 2023. On 22 December, the President of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, and president of Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev, signed a limited border demarcation agreement which had been negotiated since 2003. The two presidents also signed a treaty of allied relations to foster a strategic partnership. These included cooperation in the energy sector, fertilisers and the creation of an international centre for industrial cooperation. The agreements will elevate and stabilise relations between the two countries. However, while the border demarcation agreement will reduce border disputes, their wider border is not the main flashpoint in the region. Unresolved border demarcation issues between Uzbekistan-Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan are the key issues that are likely to drive risks of clashes and armed conflict in 2023. As such, progress on demarcation negotiations here will be the more pressing development to watch in terms of boosting regional security in 2023. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Dec 22. Russia: Kremlin will announce response to EU oil price cap next week, with export bans likely. On 23 December, Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reiterated that Russia could impose a ban on the supply of oil and petroleum products to countries joining the EU price cap. Novak also confirmed that Russian President Vladimir Putin intends to outline the Kremlin’s response to the USD 60 per barrel price cap sometime next week, after many weeks of speculation as to what option the response will be (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 7 December 2022). Novak added that Russia may have to cut oil production by 5-7%, amounting to 500,000-700,000 barrels per day. A Russian ban and oil production cut will elevate energy insecurity and would likely drive energy prices in the short term for European and other Western consumers. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Dec 22. Venezuela: Risk of political instability will remain stable after removal of interim government head. On 22 December, three major opposition parties voted to remove the head of the interim government, Juan Guaido, following a special legislative session which was meant to extend Guaido’s mandate for one year. The opposition parties (Accion Democratic, Primero Justicia and Un Nuevo Tiempo) signalled that they will seek to form a joint commission to contest the 2024 presidential election and govern foreign assets. Although the US continues to recognise Guaido as interim leader instead of President Nicolas Maduro, his failure to secure new elections coupled with domestic corruption scandals have weakened his political capital. Allegations that his team and the wider opposition have been infiltrated by the government have also eroded public support for Guaido. The three opposition parties are now likely to confirm their decision in a separate legislative session towards the end of December. It is unlikely that any changes inside the opposition structure will threaten the government and increase political instability. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Dec 22. Russia: Proposed ban on activities of foreign freight aggregators reinforces Kremlin control over data and will further limit foreign operations. On 22 December, the head of the Russian Public Consumer Initiative (CPI) proposed banning all foreign freight aggregators, which currently occupy a third of the Russian market in cargo transit data. The proposal is made on the grounds that freight data stored on servers outside of Russia, namely Germany, is being misused and given to Western intelligence agencies. The proposal cited the Crimea Bridge attack, which involved a freight lorry being used to target the bridge. The CPI has already requested an audit of the German company Transporeon, which provides customers with a digital logistics platform for use in monitoring Russian freight. The proposal is the latest example of Moscow’s growing control and supervision over foreign companies and data. The Kremlin will continue to use domestic security and the war effort to justify state influence over aspects of the Russian economy. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Dec 22. Israel-Palestinian Territories: Right-religious government formation will sustain near-term policy and protest risks. On 21 December, incoming Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu officially informed President Isaac Herzog that he has formed a right-religious government before the deadline of midnight on 22 December, following prolonged coalition negotiations over ministerial posts since the 1 November elections. Several ministerial positions are yet to be announced. Knesset Speaker Yariv Levin is set to announce the government formation on 26 December, with Netanyahu likely to swear in his government before the 2 January deadline. However, the appointment of right-religious figures to senior roles, such as the finance and interior ministers, will sustain concerns over a right-religious policy shift. Meanwhile, the required passage of new legislation in the coming days to expand ministerial authority and remove eligibility barriers will sustain public opposition. Protests are likely in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem, with further low-level attacks likely in the West Bank amid elevated levels of ethno-religious tension and settler violence, increasing bystander risks and localised transport disruptions. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Dec 22. Gambia: Coup attempt underlines rise in threat to government stability driven by internal dissent. On 21 December, the government announced that it had foiled a coup attempt on the night of 20 December, arresting four soldiers with authorities currently searching for a further three accomplices. The government claims that the situation is under control and troops have not been deployed to secure strategic sites. The motive behind the coup attempt is unclear. Former President Yahya Jammeh, living in exile in Equatorial Guinea, had significant influence within the military and recently reiterated his intention to return to power in Gambia. Alternatively, opposition to President Adama Barrow has also been rising over deteriorating economic conditions and fractures with former political allies. The incident will likely drive some transit disruptions around major transit nodes as authorities seek the accomplices. The incident will likely also raise tensions over Jammeh’s frequently threatened return to Gambia. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Dec 22. Update: air strikes against Daesh. The RAF are continuing to take the fight to Daesh in Iraq and Syria.
Summary
- Tuesday 20 December – a Reaper struck a Daesh target in northern Syria.
Detail
Royal Air Force aircraft have continued to conduct armed reconnaissance patrols against elements of the Daesh terrorist network in Syria, as well as supporting, as required, the Iraqi authorities’ efforts to keep Daesh out of their country. On Tuesday 20 December, a Reaper remotely piloted aircraft kept close observation on a building near Al Bab in northern Syria where at least one active Daesh terrorist was known to be present. Great care was taken to ensure that any potential risks to civilians were understood and minimised before the Reaper’s crew fired a salvo of two Hellfire missiles which both struck the target accurately.
Previous updates
- Royal Air Force aircraft have continued to conduct armed reconnaissance patrols against Daesh terrorists. On Monday 10 October, a Reaper remotely piloted aircraft, armed with Hellfire missiles, tracked and, when it was safe to do so without posing a risk to civilians, successfully engaged one such terrorist who was on a motorcycle in northern Syria, near Hamman At Turkumen.
- Iraqi security forces identified a number of Daesh terrorists attempting to re-establish a presence in an area to the north of Tikrit. A Royal Air Force Reaper remotely piloted aircraft joined coalition aircraft in supporting the Iraqi operation by tracking the group on Tuesday 14 June, and at an appropriate opportunity, when the terrorists were exposed in the open away from any civilians, conducted a successful attack alongside the other coalition aircraft; the RAF Reaper employed Hellfire missiles. The group was reported to be destroyed as a result of this Iraqi-led operation, and the terrorists eliminated before they could mount an active threat to the Iraqi people.
- Royal Air Force aircraft have continued to fly missions over Iraq and Syria in support of the global coalition against the Daesh terrorist movement. On Tuesday 14 December 2021, hostile drone activity was detected around the At Tanf coalition base in Syria. A pair of Typhoon FGR4s from Royal Air Force Akrotiri were conducting one of their regular patrols over Syria and Iraq as part of the global coalition against Daesh, and were tasked to investigate. On arrival in the At Tanf area, the pilots were able to identify a small hostile drone, and despite the diminutive size of the target, succeeded in conducting an air to air engagement with an ASRAAM (Advanced Short Range Air to Air Missile) which eliminated the threat it posed to coalition forces. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
22 Dec 22. BIS Imposes Additional Restrictions on Exports to Wagner Group. The U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) has modified the existing Entity List restrictions for the Russia-based Private Military Company Wagner (“Wagner Group”) resulting in the imposition of additional severe restrictions on the Wagner Group’s ability to acquire items globally to support the Russian government’s war in Ukraine and ensuring that the license requirements apply to Wagner Group wherever located worldwide. The Wagner Group has been subject to U.S. government sanctions since 2017 for its involvement in Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine (link). This Kremlin-backed mercenary group was added to the Department of Commerce’s Entity List in 2017 (link) for violating international law and fueling the conflict in eastern Ukraine. It is also subject to sanctions imposed by the European Union, the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, and Japan. This latest rule modifies the current Entity List listing for the Wagner Group by adding one address, two additional aliases (for a total of five), as well as designating it as a Russian or Belarusian ‘military end user.’ This designation goes further than the restrictions already in place on Wagner Group by applying two significant new restrictions; the Russia/Belarus ‘Military End User’ Foreign Direct Product (FDP) Rule and imposing these restrictions on the Wagner Group wherever located worldwide. Application of the Russia/Belarus ‘Military End User’ FDP rule restricts Wagner Group’s access to certain foreign-produced items. These restrictions require exporters to seek a license from the Bureau of Industry and Security for any transaction where the entity is a party, or that the exporter has knowledge may ultimately be acquired by Wagner Group. If a license is sought, it will be reviewed under a policy of denial, with case-by-case consideration only provided for certain food and medicine. Click here for the upcoming Federal Register on this change. (Source: glstrade.com)
22 Dec 22. Pakistan: Tensions With Taliban.
Key Points
- Deteriorating Afghan-Pakistan (AFG-PAK) relations and an increase in attacks by the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) will represent the two most important and interconnected threats to Pakistan’s security environment in 2023. Growing bilateral tensions with the Taliban government in Kabul places Islamabad in a weaker position to counter the TTP’s resurgence.
- Hostile AFG-PAK relations will sustain a high risk of border clashes and attacks, representing elevated physical security threats to local residents and business/NGO staff operating in the border areas. Snap closures of border crossings will also cause disruptions to transport, logistics and trade.
- With the government under growing pressure to safeguard security, the Pakistan military looks set to launch new counterterrorism (CT) missions, particularly targeting the TTP, in early 2023. Such operations will likely trigger retaliatory attacks by militant groups, raising security risks in border provinces.
- Improving US-Pakistan relations, especially in the area of security and counterterrorism cooperation, will likely spark retaliatory attacks against Pakistan by anti-US groups, most notably ISIS-K.
Context
Pakistan’s security environment has deteriorated over the last two months with a spate of attacks from the TTP and clashes between the Pakistani army and Afghan Taliban forces. Even before the end of a fragile ceasefire agreement in late November (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 29 November 2022), the TTP had increased activity in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP_ province. TTP attacks have become more frequent in December.
Meanwhile, there has been growing hostility between Pakistan and Afghanistan in the border areas. While low-intensity clashes along the disputed border have been ongoing for decades, a series of recent incidents underscore a marked deterioration of bilateral relations.
The prolonged closure of the Chaman border crossing has disrupted cross-border trade. An uptick in border clashes has also resulted in rising civilian casualties, largely owing to the more frequent use of non-precision heavy weapons including rockets. Greater militarisation of the border areas on both sides is anticipated in 2023.
Forecast
Strained AFG-PAK relations will leave Islamabad in a weaker position to counter the TTP, sustaining the risk of terrorism
Deteriorating AFG-PAK relations has reduced Islamabad’s ability to put pressure on the TTP via the Haqqani network faction within the Afghan Taliban. The Haqqani network had brokered the temporary ceasefire agreement between the Pakistani government and the TTP. While the Afghan Taliban may not provide direct support to the TTP in the form of fighters or weapons, it will be less inclined to reduce the group’s operational space in Afghanistan in the new year. Recent border clashes with Taliban forces will have split the Pakistan army’s attention in border areas, which will likely prove advantageous to the TTP.
Notable improvements in US-Pakistan ties will represent a key friction point in Islamabad’s dealing with the Taliban government in Kabul in 2023. Cooperation between Pakistan and the US in counterterrorism (CT) operations in the future, as was hinted by US State Department spokesperson Ned Price during a recent press conference, could lead to further hostility in AFG-PAK relations. Indeed, the Taliban government warned Islamabad against facilitating US over-the-horizon operations when Kabul accused Pakistan of assisting the US in the operation that killed Al Qaeda leader Ayman Al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan. Such cooperation could instigate cross-border attacks by Taliban forces, elevating physical security threats to local residents and business and NGO staff operating in the areas. Warming US-Pakistan ties will also likely prompt the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) to increase attacks in Pakistan or against Pakistan personnel and assets in Afghanistan.
Possible renewed Pakistan CT operations point to elevated bystander risks in AFG-PAK border areas
Statements from top government officials in recent days indicate that the Pakistan military is highly likely to launch new operations against the TTP in Q1 2023. After the hostage incident in Bannu, KP (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 21 December 2022), Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif pledged an ‘iron fist’ crackdown against the TTP. Similarly, Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari commented that the TTP was Pakistan’s ‘red line’, and that Pakistan would ask the Afghan Taliban for help in operations against the TTP, though the Taliban government is highly unlikely to cooperate.
With a general election to be held in 2023, the incumbent government, led by the Pakistan Democratic Movement (PDM) coalition, is under significant pressure to tackle the rise of militancy and attacks. Islamabad is also under pressure from its most important ally – China – to protect foreign assets from threats posed by not just Baloch separatist groups but also ISIS-K, which has ramped up its criticism of Beijing in recent months. The Pakistani government will thus likely prioritise restoring domestic security heading into the new year, as it continues to come under heavy criticism for the state of the economy. Security forces’ CT crackdowns will likely trigger retaliatory attacks, with AFG-PAK border areas being the most at risk. (Source: Sibylline)
22 Dec 22. UK condemns North Korea for supplying arms to Russian mercenary group fighting in Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine. The UK supports the US assessment that North Korea has completed an arms delivery to Russia for the use by the Wagner Group in Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine. Following the US release of information that North Korea has been supplying arms to the Russian mercenary group Wagner, in breach of UN Security Council resolutions, Foreign Secretary James Cleverly said: “The UK supports the US assessment that North Korea has completed an arms delivery to Russia for use by the Wagner Group, which paid for this equipment and has thousands of troops in Ukraine. This is a clear breach of UN Security Council Resolutions. The fact that President Putin is turning to North Korea for help is a sign of Russia’s desperation and isolation. We will work with our partners to ensure that North Korea pays a high price for supporting Russia’s illegal war in Ukraine.”
Wagner Group chief Yevgeny Prigozhin has been under UK sanctions since 2020. In November 2022 the UK sanctioned two individuals for conscripting prisoners to the Wagner Group, which has been linked to some of the worst atrocities in Russia’s illegal war.
Background:
President Putin has increasingly turned to Wagner, owned by Yevgeny Prigozhin for military support in Ukraine. Prigozhin is spending more than $100m per month to fund Wagner’s operations in Ukraine. Wagner is recruiting prisoners, including those with serious medical conditions, to fight in Ukraine.
For months, the Russian military has been relying on Wagner to lead combat operations in parts of the Donbas. In certain instances, Russian military officials are actually subordinate to Wagner’s command. We estimate that Wagner has 50,000 personnel deployed to Ukraine, including 10,000 contractors and 40,000 convicts.
Wagner is playing a major role in Bakhmut where its ill-equipped and ill-trained forces are suffering heavy casualties. Approximately 1,000 Wagner fighters have been killed in the fighting in recent weeks, and 90 per cent of those fatalities were convicts. In recent dates, Ukraine appears to have repulsed an offensive by Wagner forces in Bakhmut. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
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