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07 Oct 22. Burkina Faso: Coup.
Key Takeaways
- Deteriorating security conditions have been the key driver behind both coups in 2022. Russia is seeking to exploit these conditions to exacerbate anti-French sentiment and secure another market for its security sector. Reports indicate the new junta is more open to greater Russian engagement and is facing mounting public pressure for action on security, raising concerns about an agreement with Russia which would likely prompt French withdrawal from the region.
- The junta has pledged commitment to the two-year transition timetable, mitigating the immediate likelihood of ECOWAS sanctions. Should the junta break its agreement, ECOWAS is likely to impose highly targeted sanctions in order not to completely disrupt relations with Burkina Faso, which would increase the risk of Russian engagement and disruption to regional counter-insurgent operations.
- Russia is likely to continue promoting an anti-French narrative online, prompting further anti-French protests calling for the withdrawal of French troops. This will raise incidental risks to staff and assets for western businesses and directly threaten the assets of French entities, particularly in Ouagadougou.
Situation
On 30 September, junior officers supported by a special military anti-jihadist unit known as “COBRA” led a coup to replace Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, head of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration (MPSR) military junta. Following protests in Ouagadougou in support of the coup movement, Damiba resigned, with coup leader Captain Ibrahim Traore, a former artillery officer, replacing him as interim president on 5 October.
Mounting security challenges have driven support for the coups of both Kabore and Damiba
Both coups in 2022 were driven by mounting unrest over deteriorating security and the expansion of jihadist violence. In November and December 2021, large-scale protests were held in Ouagadougou, demanding the resignation of President Roch Kabore due to mounting insecurity in the tri-border region between Mali and Niger. The coup on 24 January was legitimised by Damiba’s pledge to address the mounting insecurity challenges in the north. However, since January, jihadists have continued to escalate operations, employing siege tactics to increase influence over rural towns across Burkina Faso (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 28 September). The continuing deterioration of security conditions in the country has weakened the legitimacy of the military junta under Damiba, undermining his pledge to improve the security environment.
Russia will continue to exacerbate and capitalise on anti-French sentiments to pressure the new administration to make new military agreements with Moscow
Before the coup that overthrew former president Kabore, opposition to French military presence in Burkina Faso was also growing. Russia, which identified Burkina Faso as a key target market for the Russian military contracting group Wagner, organised social media campaigns to exacerbate anti-French sentiment, promoting conspiracy theories that France is exploiting jihadist conflict to increase control over Burkina Faso (see Sibylline Special Report – 22 July). This contributed to the protests which laid the groundwork for the January coup and drove growing calls among protesters for Russian intervention.
However, Damiba maintained active cooperation with the French military and, despite initial reports that he had been interested in seeking Russian assistance, opposed Russian intervention, largely due to Wagner’s poor performance in Mali. Subsequently, pro-Kremlin social media accounts increasingly turned on Damiba, claiming that Damiba’s enduring relationship with France was evidence that he was a French asset. Similar allegations were also levelled against the regional body, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has been pushing for a return to civilian rule.
Combined with the continued deterioration of the security environment, this prompted the M30 Naaba Wobgo movement, a coalition of civil society and political groups, to launch numerous anti-French demonstrations in Ouagadougou. Following the coup, and claims that Damiba had taken refuge in a French military facility, protesters targeted the French embassy in Ouagadougou and a French cultural centre in Bobo-Dioulasso. Demonstrators denounced the French military presence and ECOWAS, with some bearing Russian flags and calling for a military agreement with Moscow. Following instances of vandalism, protesters were dispersed by the military and calls for calm were issued.
This has raised concerns that the new junta will seek Russian assistance, both to maintain popular support and counter jihadist violence. Wagner head Yevgeny Prigozhin issued a statement shortly after the coup, backing the move and has allegedly offered to work with Traore. Reports indicate that Traore is more open to the idea of Russian engagement, and has already called for support from any willing powers to help rapidly improve the security situation, including both the US and Russia. It is increasingly likely that social media campaigns and the deteriorating security environment will bolster domestic pressure on the new administration to break military agreements with France and make new agreements with Russia.
ECOWAS is likely to maintain support for the military junta whilst they continue to respect the transition timeline
As much as possible, ECOWAS will likely seek to avoid imposing sanctions on Burkina Faso, in an effort to maintain relations and ongoing security agreements. Traore has pledged to honour the previous junta’s agreement with ECOWAS to ensure a transition to civilian rule by 2024. Following a meeting between an ECOWAS delegation and Traore on 4 October, ECOWAS announced that it was satisfied with the meeting and would continue supporting Burkina Faso’s transition to constitutional order.
If the military does renege on its commitment to ensuring a transition before 2024, ECOWAS is most likely to impose only highly targeted sanctions in an effort to maintain relations. Sanctions on the Burkinabe economy would largely be ineffective as, like Mali, a sanctioned Burkina Faso would utilise transit through Guinea for its imports and exports. Moreover, as in Mali, such sanctions would risk a breakdown in relations and greater Russian involvement, disrupting ongoing counter-insurgency operations and destabilising the wider region.
Forecast
In the short term, Russia will likely continue to use social media campaigns to undermine relations between Burkina Faso and France and ECOWAS over the coming months. This is likely to drive further anti-French protests, elevating threats to the street-level assets and personnel of French businesses active in major Burkinabe cities. Protests in Ouagadougou are likely to be concentrated particularly around the French Embassy and key government buildings elevating localised incidental risks to bystanders.
Should the rate of protests increase significantly, or if France is forced to reduce military commitments in Burkina Faso, the likelihood that Burkinabe authorities will reach an agreement with the Wagner Group will increase. Wagner’s engagement will significantly exacerbate instability. In Mali, Wagner operatives have co-operated with Malian forces to commit atrocities and human rights abuses, against communities deemed to be supporting jihadist groups. This both reinforces jihadist messaging, drives recruitment, and disrupts the operation of international counter-insurgent operations.
In Mali, the government has limited the mobility of UN forces in an attempt to reduce the international visibility of abuses. A similar situation would force France and European forces contributing to the Takuba Task Force, to withdraw from Burkina Faso. This will increase international terrorism risks inside Burkina Faso, increasing the threat of attack against business assets and staff, as well as undermining the broader West African security environment, increasing the rate of jihadist expansion towards coastal states.
However, whilst the threat of Wagner Group involvement in Burkina Faso is increasing, it is unclear whether the group can effectively engage and expand its operations into the country. Moscow has heavily utilised the Wagner Group to reinforce front-line forces in Ukraine and alleviate heavy Russian casualties. Reports indicate that the Wagner Group has been forced to lower its standards to fill its ranks, recruiting from unconventional sources including convicts. Whilst Russia continues to suffer mass casualties impeding its capacity to effectively fight in Ukraine, Wagner troops could be redeployed from other areas of engagement, including Mali where the group has around 1,000 fighters. The Wagner Group’s capacity constraints could potentially undermine its appeal as a source of military support for the Burkinabe junta. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Oct 22. Kuwait: Cabinet resignation underscores government divisions and threatens to jeopardise economic recovery. On 6 October, Kuwait’s government, headed by Prime Minister Sheikh Ahmed Nawaf al-Ahmad al-Sabah, resigned less than 24 hours after the Cabinet was formed. Elected opposition member of parliament (MP) Ammar al-Ajmi’s refusal to join the Cabinet reportedly triggered the resignation, as the government must legally contain one elected MP. While government resignations are not uncommon in Kuwaiti politics (see Sibylline Alert – 5 April 2022), Prime Minister Ahmad Nawaf’s short-lived Cabinet highlights persistent political disunity in parliament. Opposition members accused the prime minister of undermining electoral results and retaining corrupt political figures who resisted critical reforms. It is likely that Prime Minister Ahmad Nawaf will accept resignations and present another Cabinet before 11 October. However, protracted delays to government formation will exacerbate public backlash over failed economic reforms, including investments in human capital and reducing public deficit, jeopardising Kuwait’s fiscal strength in the long term. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Oct 22. Haiti: Expected request for international military assistance likely to increase the risk of armed conflict. On 6 October, Prime Minister Ariel Henry and his council of ministers reportedly agreed to make a request for international military assistance, a month after criminal gangs blockaded the Varreux fuel terminal in Port au Prince. The request is expected to be sent to several allies on 07 October. The ongoing blockade is causing an extreme shortage of fuel, heavily impacting transport and medical services. This compounds concerns following the detection at the end of last week of several cases of cholera. The government’s search for external military aid to unblock some of the routes for the delivery of fuel products in the metropolitan area is likely to increase the risk of armed conflict with criminal groups, presenting a risk to operations and personnel on the ground.
07 Oct 22. Argentina: Central Bank projects inflation to top 100 percent, sustaining risk of domestic protests in the medium term. Argentina’s Central Bank said on 6 October that annual inflation was likely to hit 100.3 percent in 2022, revising its earlier estimate upwards by 5.3 percentage points. The inflation projection for 2023 was also revised from 84 percent to 91 percent. There is a correlation between inflation – in particular, food inflation (70.6 percent) – and domestic protests in the country. Large protests over socio-economic concerns have been increasing since mid-2022, compounded by mobilisations staged by left-wing activists pushing back against proposed austerity reforms. Recent nationwide demonstrations took place in Buenos Aires on 28 September, leading to transport disruptions. Incidents of violence, including clashes with police as well as looting or arson, remain uncommon during these protests. (Source: Sibylline)
07 Oct 22. Lebanon-Israel: Sustained sticking points on maritime demarcation deal will elevate the risk of tensions, cross-border aerial and maritime attacks. On 6 October, Israeli officials reportedly rejected the Lebanese comments on the latest draft agreement over the long-standing maritime border dispute, following US-mediated talks. A crucial issue for Israel remains the recognition of the Israeli ‘line of buoys’ as an international border by Lebanon, which is now placed where it prevents Beirut from having a line of sight on its northern coast. Nonetheless, Lebanese counterparts have stated they are waiting on an official response from the American delegation. The reported refusal of the Lebanese amendments also comes as banks across Lebanon have resumed their indefinite closure, after renewed break-ins by depositors, further highlighting a worsening domestic security environment, driven by socio-economic pressures. The renewed stall has a realistic probability of leading to a military flare-up between Hizballah and Israel, particularly with the latter slated to start the production of gas from the Karish rig in the near term. Over the past months, attempted drone strikes by Hizballah have already targeted the rig, significantly elevating cross-border tensions (Source: Sibylline)
06 Oct 22. Allies Conduct Naval Defense Exercises Following North Korea Missile Launches. Last night, North Korea conducted another ballistic missile test, launching two short-range missiles. Two days ago, North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan.
“The United States strongly condemns this irresponsible act, which violates numerous U.N. Security Council mandates,” said Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder, who held a press briefing today.
The U.S. urges North Korea to cease this type of provocative action, he said. Such actions escalate military tensions, destabilize the region and harm efforts at peace and security.
In response to this provocation, the USS Ronald Reagan Carrier Strike Group, joined by two Japanese navy destroyers and one South Korean destroyer, arrived yesterday in the Sea of Japan to conduct trilateral ballistic missile defense exercises, Ryder said.
“These exercises send a clear message of allied unity between our nations and enhance the interoperability of our collective forces,” he said.
“The exercises also demonstrate the deep strength of our trilateral relationship with Japan and the Republic of Korea, which is resolute against those who challenge regional stability,” he said.
“Moving forward, we will continue to consult closely with our allies and partners and stand ready to respond appropriately to any potential future provocative acts by North Korea. As always, we remain committed to preserving a free and open Indo-Pacific and peace and stability throughout the region,” Ryder added.
Spotlight: Focus on Indo-Pacific
In other news, Ryder said that after 18 months of thorough work, to include consultations with subject matter, historians and affected installation communities, the Naming Commission completed its analysis and provided Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III with its final report.
After reviewing the report, Austin concurred with all the commission’s recommendations, and is committed to implementing them as soon as possible, he said.
Today, Austin directed Defense Department and services leaders to begin implementation immediately following the National Defense Authorization Act’s mandated 90-day waiting period, he said.
Austin is grateful for the work of the commission and thanked them for their dedicated efforts and recommendations “that will give proud new names that are rooted in their local communities, and that honor American heroes whose valor, courage and patriotism, exemplify the very best of the U.S. military,” he added.
Separately, Ryder congratulated Marine Corps Col. Nicole Aunapu Mann, who made history as one of a four-member astronaut crew to blast off from Florida yesterday, bound for the International Space Station. Mann, 45, is the first Native American woman to launch into space. (Source: US DoD)
06 Oct 22. Oil output cuts threaten to inflame tensions with Western partners but will sustain fiscal stability for Gulf states. On 5 October, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its partners (OPEC+) agreed to cut oil output by two m barrels per day, equal to two percent of the current global supply. Members of OPEC+, including Russia, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, added that the reduction will boost oil prices which continue to slide amid fears of a global economic recession. OPEC+’s decision to cut production will heighten energy security concerns amongst Western partners, exacerbated by the European Union’s price cap on Russian energy imports. While OPEC+’s output reduction will bolster energy revenues for Gulf states, the strategy increases the probability of the US activating the “NOPEC” law, which permits the suing of OPEC+ members under US antitrust law. The OPEC+ decision, therefore, represents a significant deterioration in geopolitical relations, threatening Saudi-US defensive partnerships in the near term. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Oct 22. China-US: Blacklisting of ‘Chinese military companies’ will aggravate geopolitical competition, elevating policy risks for US businesses. On 5 October, the US Department of Defense (DoD) released the second tranche of blacklisted “Chinese military companies”. 13 companies were blacklisted, including state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and private ones in the aerospace and semiconductor sectors. Other targets included civilian drone manufacturer DJI, for their alleged support to China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The company has come under scrutiny for the production of drones allegedly used by Russian forces in Ukraine. Retaliatory policy risks toward American companies with connections to China are expected to rise, with Beijing likely placing similar restrictions on several US companies. US businesses with operations in or with links to China are also expected to experience increasing regulatory scrutiny for the foreseeable future. The politicisation and securitisation of critical technological sectors will sustain retaliatory trade policy measures into the long term. Such protectionist measures will sustain bilateral tensions beyond the trade domain and aggravate the effects of the ongoing bilateral economic decoupling. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Oct 22. Rwanda: Despite recent acquittal of press workers, their extended pre-detention period underlines risks to journalists and NGOs critical of the government. On 5 October, a Rwandan court acquitted three journalists detained in 2018 over charges of spreading false information to incite violence and tarnish the country’s name. Although Article 34 of the Rwandan constitution guarantees freedom of speech, the government regularly seeks to imprison opposition members, journalists and NGOs based on their speech. Despite avoiding the 22 years and five months sentences sought by prosecutors, the four years of imprisonment before their acquittal underlines the elevated threats to individuals whose published work or opinions are deemed critical of the government. Four journalists currently remain detained in Rwanda, and the 2024 general election is likely to act as a flashpoint for further repressive measures to suppress dissent. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Oct 22. Pakistan: General Bajwa’s trip to the US underscores efforts to alter South Asian regional dynamics. On 5 October, Pakistan’s Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa met top US security officials to discuss matters of “mutual interest”. Bajwa’s US trip before he retires in November aims to mend US-Pakistan ties. It comes after the US granted Pakistan a USD 450mn F-16 fleet maintenance package, and the Afghan Taliban government condemned Pakistan for allowing its airspace to be used in a US operation to assassinate former Al-Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahri in July. The US’s increased interaction with Pakistan highlights an emerging trend in regional dynamics. Greater security cooperation between the two, particularly in the US’s over-the-horizon operations in Afghanistan, will likely reduce regional security risks. However, there is still a lack of trust that underscores the US-Pakistan relationship that will prevent significant changes in security cooperation in the short term. (Source: Sibylline)
06 Oct 22. Brazil: Presidential Runoff.
Key Takeaways
- The first round of the Brazilian elections on 2 October showed closer-than-expected results, with former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva securing 48 percent of the vote compared to incumbent Jair Bolsonaro who obtained 43 percent.
- The results have encouraged allegations of fraud by Bolsonaro allies, in part because candidates backed by the current president secured control of the Senate and Congress relegating Lula supporters. This disparity between the congressional votes and the presidential result has increased the risk of civil unrest and isolated incidents of political violence by right-wing individuals in the run-up to the vote. This is in line with the forecast issued by Sibylline on 28 September. (Situation Update Brief: Brazil General Election – Unrest Scenarios) and Sibylline Alert – Brazil – Interactive Map of Most At-Risk Locations During Elections).
- The current base case scenario is a Lula victory by a small margin in the second round, maintaining the elevated risk of civil unrest, political violence and general instability. The likelihood of a Lula victory has been revised downwards from 80 percent to 75 percent.
Context
The second round vote will take place on 30 October with the participation of the incumbent right-wing president, Jair Bolsonaro, of the Social Liberal Party (PL) and left-wing former president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva (PT). The majority of polls before the first round vote showed Lula with a 14 percentage point lead over Bolsonaro. The fact that the results only produced a 5 percentage point difference has been used by Bolsonaro and his allies to suggest that polls and the wider electoral system are attempting to alter the final electoral results.
Allegations of fraud have also been amplified by the fact that senate and congressional candidates backed by Bolsonaro secured a majority in both chambers. The PL won 99 seats in the 513-member lower house, up from 77, and right-leaning parties backed by the president secured 13 out of 27 seats in the Senate.
Electoral Centre Ground
Third-place presidential candidate Simone Tebet (4.2% of the total vote) has suggested she will support Lula. Fourth-place candidate Ciro Gomes (3%) has largely remained on the sidelines, but his party – the Democratic Worker’s Party (PDT) – has indicated that they will back Lula. This voting cohort, however, may abstain from the final vote in large part because it is made up of dissatisfied voters that have refused to back either Lula or Bolsonaro.
Scenarios
1st Scenario: Lula wins the second round with a margin smaller than 5-7% (40%)
- Bolsonaro is very likely to call the election a fraud. However, his calls to action will likely vary depending on the perceived support within the armed forces and from other political leaders. A Bolsonaro defeat will also likely trigger unrest in urban centres across Brazil, particularly in Rio de Janeiro, Sao Paulo and Brasilia as well as in the south, where Bolsonaro’s support is largest.
- There are no changes to the impact of any potential unrest since the last Situation Update Brief issued on 28 September.
o Low impact: includes calling supporters to remain indoors or attend a rally several days after the election.
o Moderate impact: including calls for a truck driver’s strike, road blockades, protests in front of judiciary buildings, and other disruptive measures.
o High impact: would likely call on security sector personnel to protest and protect “the rightful result of the elections”, protests on the street on the night of the election, and direct demands for the TSE to rectify the results
2nd Scenario: Lula wins the second round with a margin larger than 8-9% (35%)
- Bolsonaro is unlikely to accept an electoral defeat, however, the wider margin may reduce the impact of any incidents of political violence or civil unrest.
- Bolsonaro will likely attempt to save face by declining to cooperate with the transition of power, rejecting the defeat, and other unconventional measures such as refusing to leave the presidential palace.
- Isolated cases of political violence will likely be reported in the days following the election. These are likely to be carried out by hard-line supporters.
3rd Scenario: Bolsonaro wins in the second round (25%)
- This scenario remains unchanged from the previous Sibylline Situation Update Brief issued on 28 September.
- This scenario will result in limited unrest and violence given that the military and violent supporters are in favour of Bolsonaro. However, it is possible that protests in major urban centres will be carried out by anti-Bolsonaro and Lula supporters.
- Isolated and sporadic clashes between radical Lula and pro-Bolsonaro supporters will probably be reported if Bolsonaro wins the elections. In the long term, expect those opposing Bolsonaro to protest more during his second administration, especially compared to the past 4 years. (Source: Sibylline)
05 Oct 22. China-Taiwan: Shifts in Taipei’s defence policy and perceptions will sustain elevated cross-Strait tensions, raising risk of security crises. On 5 October, Taiwanese Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng stated that Taiwan would regard Chinese incursions within its airspace or territorial waters as a ‘first strike’ but did not specify Taiwan’s response. The development comes following Beijing’s repeal of an unofficial tacit agreement not to cross the Taiwan Strait’s ‘median line’ with Taipei previously defining a Chinese artillery or missile attack as a first strike. Chiu’s statement outlined Taiwan’s ‘new normal’ in response to China, a move which will sustain elevated cross-Strait tensions for the foreseeable future and lower prospects of de-escalation. China is unlikely to alter its military behaviour, and will likely continue its ‘grey zone’ tactics to elevate pressure on Taiwan (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 31 August 2022). The risk of war, however, will remain low for the next five years, at least. (Source: Sibylline)
05 Oct 22. Ethiopia: Conflict will likely last through coming weeks despite peace talks. On 5 October, the Ethiopian government accepted an invitation to peace talks with the rebel government of Tigray, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). The talks will be mediated by the African Union and are scheduled to be held in Cape Town on 8-9 October. The TPLF has not yet issued a response to the invitation but is likely to accept. The group previously indicated in September it would accept African Union-led peace talks and its forces are now coming under increased pressure, recently withdrawing troops from the North Wollo zone of the neighbouring Amhara region and towns in the Afar region. However, a ceasefire agreement is unlikely. Broad stalemate across much of the conflict will discourage either side from making concessions, and hawks on both sides will likely argue that further military operations will improve their positions, potentially sustaining fighting through the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
05 Oct 22. South Korea, U.S. fire missiles into the sea to protest ‘reckless’ North Korea test. South Korea and the U.S. military conducted missile drills in response to North Korea’s launch of a ballistic missile over Japan, as the United Nations Security Council prepares to meet over what was Pyongyang’s longest-range test. Nuclear-armed North Korea test-fired an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) farther than ever before on Tuesday, sending it soaring over Japan for the first time in five years and prompting a warning for residents there to take cover.
South Korean and American troops fired a volley of missiles into the sea in response, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said on Wednesday, and the allies earlier staged a bombing drill with fighter jets in the Yellow Sea.
The military separately confirmed that a South Korean Hyunmoo-2 missile failed shortly after launch and crashed during the drill, but that no one was hurt.
Footage shared on social media by a nearby resident and verified by Reuters showed smoke and flames rising from the military base.
The fire was caused by burning rocket propellant, and although the missile carried a warhead, it did not explode, South Korea’s military said.
It apologised for causing residents to worry.
The White House National Security Council called North Korea’s latest test “dangerous and reckless” and the U.S. military and its allies have stepped up displays of force. read more
The USS Ronald Reagan, an American aircraft carrier that made its first stop in South Korea last month for the first time in years, will return to the sea between Korea and Japan in what the South Korean military called a “highly unusual” move designed to show the allies’ resolve to respond to any threats from North Korea.
U.S. President Joe Biden and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida condemned North Korea’s test in the “strongest terms,” the European Union called it a “reckless and deliberately provocative action”, and U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres condemned the launch and said it was a violation of Security Council resolutions.
The U.N. Security Council will meet on Wednesday to discuss North Korea at the request of the United States, despite China and Russia telling council counterparts they were opposed to an open meeting of 15-member body. They argued that the council’s reaction should be conducive to easing the situation on the Korean Peninsula, diplomats said.
It was the first North Korean missile to follow a trajectory over Japan since 2017, and its estimated 4,600 km (2,850 mile) flight was the longest for a North Korean test, which are usually “lofted” into space to avoid flying over neighbouring countries.
Analysts and security officials said it may have been a variant of the Hwasong-12 IRBM, which North Korea unveiled in 2017 as part of what it said was a plan to strike U.S. military bases in Guam.
Neither North Korea’s government nor its state media have reported on the launch or disclosed what type of missile was used.
The flight has increased concerns that North Korea may soon conduct an expected nuclear test, which would be the first since 2017.
South Korea’s defence minister, Lee Jong-sup, told parliament North Korea had completed preparations for a test and might use a smaller weapon meant for operational use, or a big device with a higher yield than in previous tests.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol called the test “reckless” and said it would bring a decisive response from his country, its allies and the international community.
The launch was a “reckless and deliberately provocative action” that violated U.N. security council resolutions, a European Union spokesperson said. (Source: Reuters)
04 Oct 22. North Korea: Missile Launch.
EVENT
On 4 October, North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan for the first time since 2017, prompting missile alarms in northern Japan. The launch represents the fifth missile launch from North Korea in 10 days and the 23rd in 2022.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The missile launch occurred on the one-year anniversary of Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s premiership. The launch also occurred after a trilateral anti-submarine drill involving South Korea, Japan, and the US on 30 September. Therefore, the launch was most likely a politically symbolic protest against growing security and defence ties between these countries, and likely sought to deter all sides from continuing such defence cooperation.
- The missile was classified as an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) by South Korean and Japanese authorities. An initial US assessment labelled the projectile as a “long-range” missile. According to South Korea’s Joint Chief of Staff (JCS), the missile was launched at 07:22 am from Mupyong-ri, Jagang province. It flew approximately 4,500-4,600 km (2,800-2,850s mi) at a maximum altitude of 1,000 km (621 mi) over Japan’s Hokkaido island and Aomori prefecture, before landing 3,200 km (1,988 mi) from the Japanese coast in the Pacific Ocean outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone (EEZ) at approximately 07:44 am (see map below for estimated route).
- The missile launch prompted Japanese authorities to issue a J-Alert, warning residents in these regions to remain indoors. The missile was directly over Japan for about one minute and posed no direct threat to aircraft or ships. Nonetheless, the missile launch temporarily disrupted or delayed train and commercial aircraft operations. Japanese missile defence systems reportedly did not attempt to destroy the missile.
- The missile is believed to have been a Hwasong-12 IRBM, but this remains unconfirmed. The missile’s trajectory and flight distance indicate that the missile was capable of reaching and striking Guam, a strategic US territory, which is often considered a primary target for North Korean and Chinese forces in case of armed conflict. US Andersen Air Force Base and Naval Base Guam are located on the island, hosting approximately 7,000 US service personnel. The US military has recently requested to expand Guam’s missile defence capabilities.
- Snap Japan-US military exercises were announced after the launch. Similarly, the South Korean and US air forces conducted joint air bombing drills in the Yellow Sea in response. The Chinese government, for its part, refrained from condemning the missile launch, calling instead for its resolution through dialogue.
FORECAST
The latest North Korean provocation will sustain regional tensions and will lead to calls for greater security cooperation between South Korea, Japan, and the US. Persistent North Korean missile and nuclear threats could escalate regional tensions, with tit-for-tat escalatory actions expected in the coming weeks. Furthermore, trilateral or bilateral regional military exercises and patrols involving South Korean, Japanese, and American armed forces will continue and possibly even increase in light of increased North Korean threats. However, the risk of a war between the two factions remains low. US officials will continue to reiterate their support for dialogue with Pyongyang, believing that Chinese and Russian cooperation is required to prevent further North Korean escalations.
Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno labelled North Korea’s missile launch as an ‘imminent threat’ to the regional and international community. Therefore, the renewal of more regular missile threats from North Korea will likely prompt the Japanese government to seek greater public support for bolstered military capabilities and a higher defence budget. This will likely cause political friction domestically regarding Article 9 of the Japanese Constitution, which officially renounces the state’s right to war and belligerency, as well as between Japan, China, and North Korea.
The high-profile missile launch comes one week before the Japanese government is set to significantly ease travel restrictions for international tourists, in a bid to boost the economy and tourism. The launch over Japan, and the potential for further missile tests, may deter incoming tourists while tensions are perceived to be high.
North Korea, for its part, has recently hardened its nuclear policy to counter threats against North Korea’s leadership and nuclear command and control (C2) systems (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 9 September 2022). It likely perceives growing US-South Korea-Japan ties as threats to its national security. Furthermore, this provocative launch may be a precursor to more provocative actions, including a possible nuclear test in the coming weeks (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 28 September 2022). North Korean bellicosity is expected to remain in the medium-to-long term, with no prospect of an imminent resolution. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Oct 22. Somalia: Al-Shabaab will continue IED attacks against key targets despite mounting pressure. On 3 October, US and Somali officials claimed that al-Shabaab co-founder Abdullahi Nadir was killed in a US airstrike near Jilib in the southern Jubbaland region on 1 October. The attack comes ahead of planned offensives in southern Somalia – outlined to US officials during President Hassan Mohamud’s visit to the US in mid-September – attempting to replicate government successes against al-Shabaab positions in central Somalia. In response to the loss of territory and attacks on their leadership, al-Shabaab detonated three vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIEDs) near the Lama Galaay military base in Beledweyne city, central Somalia. As such, while an escalation of military operations against al-Shabaab will likely impact the group’s organisation capabilities and threaten their territorial control, the group will continue to conduct IED attacks nationally. This will sustain the elevated threat of attack around government and military facilities as well as hotels into 2023. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Oct 22. North Korea-Japan: Missile launch further escalates tensions; prompts disruptions in northern Japan. On 4 October, North Korea launched a ballistic missile over the northern part of Japan before landing in the Pacific Ocean. The Japanese defence minister reported that they suspected it was an intermediate-range ballistic missile. The launch occurred days after joint naval drills were held by the US, Japan, and South Korea. The launch was the fifth in ten days, and the first time a North Korean missile has passed over Japan since 2017. Japanese authorities issued an alert to residents in the northern island of Hokkaido and the northeastern prefecture of Aomori to remain inside. Additionally, air traffic and train operations were disrupted. Further provocative actions are expected from North Korea in the coming days/weeks, including further missile launches and a possible nuclear test (see Daily Analytical Update – 28 September 2022), although Pyongyang is not expected to risk sparking armed conflict. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Oct 22. Kuwait: Cabinet reshuffle is unlikely to address political stalemate, sustaining delays to policy reforms. On 3 October, Kuwait’s Crown Prince Sheikh Mishal al-Ahmad al-Jaber al-Sabah launched preliminary discussions to name a prime minister after accepting the Cabinet’s resignation 24 hours prior. The resignation is a common practice following parliamentary elections, which took place on 29 September. This is the fourth government to step down since January 2021. The Crown Prince is expected to announce a new Cabinet before the Assembly’s inaugural session on 11 October, however, persistent political deadlocks between the opposition will likely sustain governmental fissures. Whilst electoral results lead to 27 new members appointed in the 50-seat National Assembly, including conservative Islamist figures and two women, it is highly likely that divisions will prolong delays to critical fiscal and structural reforms. Failure to introduce a public debt law will also impact Kuwait’s ability to economically diversify and may undermine investor confidence in the long term.
04 Oct 22. Egypt: In-country repression promotes external activism; minimal disruptions are expected during summit. From 26 September until 30 September, 400 participants took part in the Climate Justice Camp, held in Nabeul, Tunisia, organised by climate activist organisation Greenpeace. The demonstration comes ahead of Egypt’s hosting of the 27th Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27) in Sharm El Sheikh from 6 until 18 November, amid considerable activist scrutiny over its human rights track record. Further COP27 and climate-related activism is likely to take place outside of Egypt in the coming weeks, as President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi maintains a strict intolerance to dissent. The Egyptian government is likely to prevent activists from entering the country to attend COP27. Activists who engage in protests outside the government-designated protest sites will likely face a strong security response, heightening risks to bystanders. This will reduce the likelihood of large-scale and disruptive activist-led protests outside the COP27 venue. (Source: Sibylline)
04 Oct 22. North Korea conducts longest-range missile test yet over Japan.
- Missile flies over Japan for first time since 2017
- May have been intermediate-range ballistic missile
- Japan issues shelter warning, stops some trains
- Apparent test condemned by U.S., S. Korea, Japan
Nuclear-armed North Korea fired a ballistic missile over Japan for the first time in five years on Tuesday, prompting a warning for residents to take cover and a temporary suspension of train operations in northern Japan.
The Japanese government warned citizens to take cover as the missile appeared to have flown over and past its territory before falling into the Pacific Ocean.
It was the first North Korean missile to follow such a trajectory since 2017, and Tokyo said its 4,600 km (2,850 miles) range may have been the longest distance travelled for a North Korean test flight, which are more often “lofted” higher into space to avoid flying over neighbouring countries.
The latest launch was Pyongyang’s fifth in 10 days, amid military muscle-flexing by the United States, South Korea and Japan. Last week, the three countries conducted trilateral anti-submarine exercises that included a U.S. aircraft carrier, which stopped in South Korea for the first time since 2017.
Recent tests have drawn relatively muted responses from Washington, which is focused on the war in Ukraine as well as other domestic and foreign crises, but the U.S. military has stepped up displays of force in the region.
Tokyo said it took no steps to shoot the missile down. Defence Minister Yasukazu Hamada said Japan wouldn’t rule out any options, including counterattack capabilities, as it looks to strengthen its defences in the face of repeated missile launches from North Korea. South Korea also said it would boost its military and increase allied cooperation.
The United States said it strongly condemned North Korea’s “dangerous and reckless” decision to launch a long-range ballistic missile over Japan.
“This action is destabilising and shows the DPRK’s blatant disregard for United Nations Security Council resolutions and international safety norms,” National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said in a statement, using the initials for North Korea’s official name.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken held phone calls with his South Korean and Japanese counterparts during which they “strongly condemned” the North’s latest test. The launch violates U.N. Security Council resolutions, which have imposed sanctions over Pyongyang’s nuclear and missile programmes.
‘REAL-WORLD’ TEST
Officials in Tokyo and Seoul said the missile flew 4,500 to 4,600 kilometres (2,850 miles) to a maximum altitude of about 1,000 km.
South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said it appeared to have been an intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) launched from North Korea’s Jagang Province. North Korea has used that province to launch several recent tests, including multiple missiles that it claimed were “hypersonic.”
The test prompted East Japan Railway Co (9020.T) to suspend train operations in the northern regions, Japanese broadcaster NHK reported.
The initial flight details suggest the missile may have been the Hwasong-12 IRBM, which North Korea unveiled in 2017 as part of its threatened plan to strike U.S. military bases in Guam, said Kim Dong-yup, a former South Korea Navy officer who now teaches at Kyungnam University.
The Hwasong-12 was used in 2017 tests that overflew Japan, and Kim noted it was also test fired from Jagang Province in January.
Flying a missile such a long distance allows North Korea’s scientists to test missiles under more realistic conditions, said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“Compared to the usual highly lofted trajectory, this allows them to expose a long-range reentry vehicle to thermal loads and atmospheric reentry stresses that are more representative of the conditions they’d endure in real-world use,” he said.
POLITICAL BACKLASH
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol called the test “reckless” and said it would bring a decisive response from his country’s military, its allies and the international community.
Speaking to reporters in Tokyo, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called North Korea’s actions “barbaric”, and said the government would continue to gather and analyse information.
The launch over Japan was “not a productive path forward” but Washington remained open to talks, Daniel Kritenbrink, the top U.S. diplomat for East Asia, said during an online event hosted by the Institute for Corean-American Studies.
South Korea’s defence minister, Lee Jong-sup, told parliament on Tuesday that the North completed preparations for a nuclear test around May. If there is a test, he said, it might use a smaller weapon meant for operational use, or a device with a higher yield than in previous tests.
Lee said it was difficult to predict when Pyongyang would conduct its seventh nuclear test, but lawmakers briefed by intelligence officials last week said that a possible window could be between China’s Communist Party Congress this month and U.S. mid-term elections in November.
Kritenbrink said the nuclear test was “likely awaiting a political decision to do so,” warning such a “dangerous” act would represent “a grave escalation that would seriously threaten regional and international stability and security.” (Source: Reuters)
03 Oct 22. Pakistan: Political battle between the PTI and government will sustain the risk of unrest in coming weeks. On 2 October, the federal cabinet asked the Federal Investigative Agency (FIA) to investigate leaked audio tapes of Imran Khan allegedly telling his aids to misuse a cypher linked to the US. The cypher was Khan’s evidence to prove his ouster as Prime Minister was the result of an international conspiracy. Any legal action taken against Khan could lead to significant unrest as witnessed on Saturday 1 October, after an arrest warrant was issued against Khan with reference to a separate contempt case against him, leading to thousands protesting in cities such as Islamabad and Lahore. The High court, however, discharged the case on 3 October, providing some relief to the PTI. However, the PTI and the government continue to indulge in polemics and legal battles polarising the electorate, with Khan still threatening a long march protest in Islamabad soon. The risk of domestic unrest will remain elevated in the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Oct 22. Yemen: Non-renewal of ceasefire significantly elevates the risk of cross-border aerial attacks targeting Saudi Arabia, the UAE. On 2 October, the UN-mediated ceasefire expired with no renewal, having been in place since last April. Ahead of the deadline, the Houthis stated that the truce had reached a ‘dead end’, due to sticking points on energy revenues and the payment of salaries and pensions of civil servants by the government (see Global Weekly Review – 28 September 2022). Earlier on 1 October, the group issued a warning to both Saudi Arabia and the UAE requesting foreign oil companies linked to ‘countries of aggression’ to halt their operations and leave. The non-renewal significantly heightens the volatility of the security environment, particularly as clashes have already been reported in Yemen’s southwest, with Houthis deploying reinforcements. The lack of an agreement will elevate the risk of missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia and the UAE, as well as maritime attacks threatening Red Sea routes, in the coming days and weeks. This will increase the likelihood of renewed targeting in particularly of Riyadh’s south-eastern areas and critical energy infrastructure. However, established air defence capabilities in Saudi Arabia are likely to mitigate significant threats to bystanders and business continuity. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Oct 22. Burkina Faso: Coup bolsters anti-French movement elevating threat of protests. On 2 October, Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba, resigned and was replaced as interim head of state by coup leader Captain Ibrahim Traore, an officer who had previously served in the anti-jihadist Cobra unit. The country has also reopened its air borders, after their temporary closure on 30 September, though flight disruptions are likely over the coming days as operations resume. After junta leaders called for calm following protests around the French Embassy in Ouagadougou, over rumours that Damiba was hiding in a French military facility, domestic unrest has reduced in the immediate term. Regardless, in the coming weeks, protesters will likely increase pressure on the new administration to break military agreements with France and, bolstered by Russian social media campaigns, seek new agreements with Russia. This will increase the likelihood of demonstrations in Ouagagoudou, during which there will be an elevated threat of vandalism against the street-level assets of French businesses. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Oct 22. Chad: Transitional Military Council’s decision to delay elections will likely drive anti-French protests. On 1 October, the ruling Transitional Military Council adopted resolutions to extend the transition period by two years, allowing interim leader Mahamat Idriss Deby to remain in power and run in the presidential election. The decision was part of the “Inclusive and Sovereign National Dialogue” conclusions, launched in August to organise polls ahead of the October scheduled elections. In May, the Wakit Tamma civil society coalition organised protests in which participants alleged Deby was being propped up by France, prompting protestors to vandalise French business assets, including several Total petrol stations in N’djamena. The announcement of electoral delays will likely feed into this narrative, prompting the organisation of further protests in N’djamena in the coming weeks. Authorities are likely to employ excessive force to disperse protestors, elevating indirect physical threats to bystanders, with protesters potentially again targeting French business assets. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Oct 22. Brazil: Former President Lula da Silva and incumbent Bolsonaro to face run-off election, increasing uncertainty and the risk of civil unrest. The first round of the Brazilian elections on 2 October, was more disputed than expected, with former president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva securing 48 per cent of the vote, compared to incumbent Jair Bolsonaro who obtained 43 per cent. The closer-than-expected results encouraged allegations of fraud by Bolsonaro and his electoral base. Candidates backed by Bolsonaro secured twice as many seats in the Senate as the opposition party (PT) and similarly obtained a majority in Congress. The disparity between the congressional votes and the presidential result will likely increase the risk of protests by right-wing groups. Similarly, Lula da Silva supporters are expected to stage rallies in order to galvanise support. Triggers for an escalation include isolated incidents of political violence or further allegations of voter fraud by President Bolsonaro and his proxies. Incidents of civil unrest will likely be confined to major cities such as Brasilia, Rio de Janeiro and Sao Paulo. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Oct 22. Iraq: Protests highly likely to persist following October Movement anniversary, sustaining bystander risks. On 1 October, hundreds of protestors gathered in major squares and outside government buildings in Baghdad and southern cities including Basra, Diwaniya and Nasiriya, on the third anniversary of the 2019 October Protest (Tishreen) Movement. Demonstrators attempted to break into the capital’s fortified Green Zone, which hosts foreign embassies and government buildings. Security forces deployed tear gas to disperse protestors, resulting in at least 86 injuries, having established checkpoints and barriers on roads and bridges to prevent access to major squares and the Green Zone, most of which have since reopened. Anti-government protests are highly likely to persist in the coming weeks, threatening to further delay government formation and policy reform amid tensions over the political alliance between the Iran-backed Co-ordination Framework with Kurdish and Sunni parties. Baghdad, central and southern provinces will remain hotspots for unrest, with a realistic possibility of escalatory armed clashes and further rocket attacks on the Green Zone, sustaining bystander risks to personnel in the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
03 Oct 22. Canada: Québec elections likely to result in nationalist majority, raising risk of actions by autonomist movements and domestic unrest. Provincial elections will be held to decide members of the National Assembly of Québec on 3 October. The leading candidate for Premier of Québec is François Legault, who is seeking reelection to the office. His political party, the centre-right, Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) is also projected to gain a majority once again. CAQ has largely promoted nationalism, traditionalist social values and pro-business attitudes. CAQ does not seek succession from Canada, a departure from the social democratic separatist group Parti Québécois. Nevertheless, the likely CAQ victory will raise the risk of further actions by autonomist movements, as Legault seeks to deepen the regulatory autonomy of Quebec by pursuing anti-immigration policies at odds with the federal government in Ottawa. It also increases the risk of domestic unrest by groups focused on immigration, ethnic minorities and English-speakers. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Sep 22. US and Australian air forces sign joint vision statement. This bilateral partnership is being supported by the Air Senior National Representative (ASNR) forum. The US and Australia have signed a Joint Vision Statement to support the development and operations of the air forces of both nations. The bilateral pact was signed between the US Air Force’s (USAF) chief of staff general CQ Brown Jr and the Royal Australian Air Force’s (RAAF) air marshal Robert Chipman.
It was signed on 14 September in Washington, DC.
The latest signing builds on the existing strategic partnership between the two nations.
Brown said: “Signing a Joint Vision Statement represents another step in long-term, enduring commitment we have to the future and to the security of our two countries.”
The statement aims to develop an airpower that can support the common national security concepts, including deterring aggression and confronting threats, to promote a free, stable and open international system.
According to the USAF, the objectives of this statement will be achieved through information sharing, regional engagement, adapting common approaches to tackle security challenges, and the deployment of sustainable and interoperable air forces in the Indo-Pacific region.
Chipman said: “We will continue to design our forces to survive and succeed by rapidly building the capacity, concepts, and capabilities necessary for tomorrow’s emerging threats while enhancing combined operations expertise for today’s challenges.”
This US-Australian partnership is being supported by the Air Senior National Representative (ASNR) forum.
This forum was formed in 2000 to facilitate an open dialogue between the countries’ air forces. It also supports the exchange of warfighting capabilities and concepts.
ASNR is co-chaired by the USAF’s vice chief of staff and RAAF’s deputy chief.
The principles that will be used for guiding this bilateral relationship include interoperability, purposeful collaboration, urgency and future alignment. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
30 Sep 22. Burkina Faso: Potential Coup. At around 0430 hours local time heavy gunfire and explosions were reported in the Baba Sy military camp, the headquarters of the Patriotic Movement for Safeguarding and Restoration (MPSR) military junta that came to power in January, located opposite the presidential palace in Ouagadougou. Military vehicles subsequently positioned themselves along the main roads around the presidential palace, ministerial buildings and the Ouaga 2000 district interchange. Soldiers are also positioned outside the headquarters of the national broadcaster Radio Television du Burkina (RTB) the signal for which has been cut off.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Another coup is likely ongoing in Burkina Faso. Sources have reported that interim president and MPSR leader Lieutenant Colonel Paul-Henri Sandaogo Damiba “is fine and is in Ouagadougou”. However, given the lack of an official statement from authorities (or any of the officers who launched the coup), the situation is likely ongoing. Additionally, the lack of active fighting in Ouagadougou at the time of writing likely indicates that the two sides are currently engaged in some form of negotiations, with concessions potentially mitigating a full overthrow of the government.
- The coup is allegedly being led by a special military unit known as “COBRA”, demanding the release of their commander Lieutenant Colonel Emmanuel Zoungrana. He was arrested after organising a failed coup in January before the MPSR came to power and is now allegedly held on money laundering charges. The soldiers are also accusing Damiba, who replaced General Barthelemy Simpore as Defence Minister on 12 September, of failing to ensure national security. The government does not control around 40 percent of the country, jihadist attacks are increasing and on 29 September protests were held in Bobo-Dioulasso calling for Damiba’s resignation.
- The coup is also driven by mounting unrest over Damiba’s relationship with former president Blaise Compaore. Despite being sentenced to life in prison in April for the murder of former president Thomas Sankara, he was allowed to return from self-imposed exile in Cote d’Ivoire to take part in a presidential council in July. Additionally, Damiba met with Compaore in early September during a visit to Cote d’Ivoire, raising concerns about Compaore’s potential return.
FORECAST
Regardless of the outcome of the coup security forces will likely retain a heavy military presence throughout Ouagadougou, other major cities and at key transit nodes, including border crossings, over the coming days, disrupting the movement of staff and assets. If apparent ongoing negotiations break down a resumption of further fighting within Ouagadougou remains highly probable. While such fighting would likely be entirely concentrated within the armed forces and the government, with foreign nationals and businesses highly unlikely to be targeted, such conflict will pose significant incidental risks to individuals in the vicinity of military and government facilities.
If the coup succeeds or fails, reshuffles within the armed forces are likely. These will disrupt counter-terror operations in the short term and will likely also prompt some public criticism over mounting government instability, potentially resulting in some protests in Ouagadougou in the coming days. This will increase the likelihood of jihadist attacks in areas surrounding urban centres as the groups attempt to exploit the uncertainty to boost their influence.
A successful coup would raise concerns within the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) about the new administration’s commitment to the two-year transition agreed in July, elevating the threat of sanctions if the timeline is revoked or revised. Should the incident prompt France or other European partners to reduce cooperation with the Burkinabe armed forces this will increase public calls for Russian engagement through private military contractors Wagner. This consideration could potentially encourage France to continue working with whatever administration emerges. (Source: Sibylline)
01 Oct 22. U.S., Australian Defense Leaders Stress Importance of Alliance System. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Australian Deputy Prime Minister Richard Marles, who also serves as his country’s defense minister, stressed the importance of the alliance system in the Indo-Pacific region after a meeting in Hawaii.
The two discussed their unwavering commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific region and the challenges to that ideal.
Both Australia and the United States are dedicated to the premise that all countries should be free to choose their own destinies. Further, the international, rules-based order is based on the idea that nations should respect international laws and resolve disputes peacefully, Austin said.
“These shared convictions run deep, and they are the foundation of our unbreakable alliance,” the secretary said. “The region and the world face a growing challenge from autocratic countries attempting to change the status quo through threats, coercion and provocative military activities and even naked aggression,” Austin said. “We’re deeply concerned by China’s aggressive, escalatory and destabilizing military activities in the Taiwan Strait and elsewhere in the region.”
Nations around the world are uniting to oppose Russia’s unprovoked and cruel invasion of Ukraine. “The United States and Australia are united in opposing actions that threaten peace, stability and the rules-based international order,” he said.
Spotlight: Support for Ukraine
Both Austin and Marles agreed the conversation between the two leaders was productive. They discussed the steps needed to enhance deterrence and strengthen security in the Indo-Pacific. “We talked about enhancing our interoperability and expanding our operations and advancing our on-going posture, force posture initiatives,” the secretary said.
Marles said the two leaders talked about ways to deepen defense industrial base cooperation.
They also spoke about Australia, the United Kingdom and United States trilateral security pact that will pave the way for Australia to acquire nuclear submarine technology and for the three nations to cooperate on other advanced technologies. Marles thanked all those involved in working on the pact and said Australia is still on track to announce the way forward on the submarine acquisition process in the first part of 2023.
Australia is part of the coalition to help Ukraine in its fight for sovereignty against Russia, Marles said. His nation also sees increasingly aggressive Chinese efforts to “seek to shape the world around it in a way that we have not seen before,” he said.
The freedom of navigation in the East China Sea and South China Sea and around Taiwan is “fundamentally important to Australia’s national interests,” he said.
The men discussed the U.S. Marine Corps rotation to Darwin, Australia, “but we want to look at other ways in which we can build upon American force posture and doing that in cooperation with Australia,” Marles said.
Marles said at the heart of the meeting is the strategic alignment between the United States and Australia. This has always been the case, “but has never been greater than it is right now,” he said.
The U.S.-Australia alliance is one part of the U.S. alliance network. “Our allies and partners bring significant capability, and — not only in terms of what they bring to the fight, but the access, basing rights — all of those things contribute to our overall effort,” Austin said. “Quite frankly, it’s what our adversaries worry about most — our ability to work together with like-minded partners and allies. That really magnifies our warfighting capability.”
Alliances and partnerships are critical to deterrence. “That’s why you’ve seen us work hard to strengthen partnerships and alliances in the region,” he said.
Marles also commented on the importance of alliances. “Our alliance with the United States is completely central to our national security and to our world view, and the alliance has never been more important than it is now,” he said, adding the vast majority of Australians support the treaty with the United States.
“Looked at more broadly, the observation I’d make is that America is a country which does alliances,” Marles said. “What that means is that America is a country that works with others and seeks to work with those in the global community, which says everything about the United States role as a global leader for countries around the world who share a commitment to the global, rules-based order.”
Marles said the U.S. system of alliances is profoundly important. “It is the ‘edge,’ and it matters deeply,” he said. “It matters deeply in terms of providing security.”
Following the meeting, Austin invited the deputy prime minister to the Pearl Harbor, Hawaii, submarine docks where they toured the USS Mississippi. The Mississippi is a nuclear-powered, fast-attack submarine that’s armed with cruise missiles. (Source: US DoD)
01 Oct 22. Indo-Pacific Component Commanders Stress Importance of Partners. All the military component commanders of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command stress the need for partnership in the immense region of the world.
Reporters traveling with Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III interviewed with the component commanders: Air Force Gen. Kenneth S. Wilsbach, the commander of Pacific Air Forces; Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of the Navy’s Pacific Fleet, and Army Maj. Gen. Peter N. Benchoff, the chief of staff of U.S. Army Pacific.
They discussed the readiness of U.S. forces in the region to defend U.S. interests, and all emphasized the work soldiers, sailors, airmen, Marines and Guardians do to build interoperability, understanding and procedures to work with allies, partners and friends.
The United States is a Pacific power with vital national interests spread throughout the region.
“Our objective is to, to help contribute to a free and open Indo-Pacific,” Wilsbach said at his headquarters at Hickam Air Force Base. “We do that through mostly airpower, and we obviously have many airmen, and we have aircraft that can generate that air power. But one other way that we do this is through allies and partners.”
China is the pacing threat in the region, but Russia also maintains significant forces in the Pacific. “Clearly, China wants to be the world’s only superpower, and they actually believe that everybody else has to be a loser, and they can be the only winner,” Wilsbach said. “It’s clear that they want to impose their will on the world, especially their close neighbors. And that’s, that’s counter to our objective of free and open.”
Pacific Air Forces is at a very high readiness level across the region from Alaska and Hawaii to Guam, Japan, and Korea, the general said. The airmen train hard and they interact with allies and partners all the time. “We get interoperability with those allies and partners,” he said.
He spoke about the recently concluded Pitch Black exercise hosted by Australia. As the name implies, it is an exercise that emphasizes operating in low light. “There were 17 countries flying,” he said. “And often when you have that many countries flying in one exercise, you actually have to reduce the complexity of the exercise so that everybody can participate.”
But that didn’t happen; there was not reduction in complexity, he said. “It was about as complicated as a mission as we train to. Watching the mission unfold, I was extremely impressed with the professionalism and the airmanship that was displayed by all 17 countries.”
The mission was safe, professional and executed with a high degree of skill and precision. “They achieved their objective for the overall objective for the mission,” he said. “It was not an easy mission to do.”
That same partnership happens with naval forces in the region. Paparo said he wants to see every U.S. Pacific Fleet operation partnered.
“Our connections from headquarters to headquarters, and our connection with embedded officers and staff, and in our connections with liaison officers — I don’t think we’ve ever been more partnered than we are right now,” the admiral said. “And, so, the lash ups from Korea, down to Australia and to the east to Tahiti, among all the partners, have really never been tighter.”
U.S. Pacific Fleet has a significant effort to coordinate its bilateral and multilateral operations, and they are constant. The command is finishing up Noble Eagle, an exercise where two Canadian frigates, two Australian frigates, two Japanese destroyers and a U.S. destroyer operated dynamically throughout the South China Sea. The flotilla operated with common operating pictures and common command and control for 11 days.
“Our combined afloat readiness and training exercises with Singapore, with Malaysia, with Indonesia, with Bangladesh are examples” of partnered exercises, the admiral said. “In the areas where we must be bilateral, we are. In the ways that we can be multilateral, we are.”
Army forces in the Pacific also look to exercise and operate with allies and partners. Exercises with partners have grown in complexity and in members. Exercises like Cobra Gold in Thailand and Balikatan in the Philippines have grown “more multinational because our allies and partners out here see a change in the security requirements,” Benchoff said.
Interoperability in ground forces is a problem, but the exercise program ensures the forces can communicate, can share information and intelligence, can operate effectively in operations from humanitarian relief to conflict, the general said.
The soldier-to-soldier aspect of these exercises is also important. “Us sleeping under a tree with an ally or a partner is instrumental to the joint force,” he said. “These personal contacts go a long way to building interoperability.”
Army forces work with other ground forces to help nations build capabilities. The Security Force Assistance Brigade works to keep soldiers forward to work with and train partner ground forces. This presence is invaluable, Benchoff said.
The challenges across the region require a unified approach, all three men said. China and Russia are competitors. North Korea is a rogue state that can surprise defense officials. The threat from extremist groups always exists. The only constant is the need for allies, and Indo-Pacific Command is working on that. (Source: US DoD)
01 Oct 22. Defense Leaders Look to Strengthen Rules-Based Order.
The defense leaders of the United States, Japan and Australia met today to strengthen the defense of the rules-based, international order that China and Russia are trying to dismantle. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III hosted Richard Marles, Australia’s deputy prime minister and defense minister, and Japanese Defense Minister Yasukazu Hamada at U.S. Indo-Pacific Command headquarters in Hawaii to chart the way forward in the trilateral alliance.
Austin said the meeting is a way for the nations to build on their already close partnership. “America is proud to count Australia and Japan among our very closest allies,” he said at the start of the meeting. “For decades, our three democracies have worked shoulder-to-shoulder as an anchor for stability and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific and around the globe.”
The three countries share common values and common purposes, the secretary said, and are willing to defend an order that respects the rights of all nations to go about their business without bullying and intimidation.
“But today, that vision is threatened by autocratic countries that peddle disinformation and defy international rules and rely on coercion and intimidation,” Austin said. “We are deeply concerned by China’s increasingly aggressive and bullying behavior in the Taiwan Strait and elsewhere in the region.”
He also said the democracies have been drown closer together in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and its brutal war that threatens the very existence of the country.
Australia is halfway around the world from Ukraine, but the war is still felt there, and Australia has provided support and equipment to the embattled nation. “The global, rules-based order is being pressured in a way that we’ve not seen in many, many decades,” Marles said before the meeting. “We’re seeing that in Eastern Europe with the unprovoked aggression of Russia against Ukraine. And we are standing with Ukraine because we see that the principles which are engaged in that conflict go directly to Australia’s national interest because our interest lies in the upholding of the global rules-based order.”
Marles said China is exerting that same pressure in Australia’s backyard and standing together is the way forward. “We are aligned strategically today as closely as we ever have been,” he noted. “But that strategic alignment is built upon relationships of deep affection between Australia and the United States, between Australia and Japan, and between Japan and the United States. We see the trilateral between our three countries as only growing deeper and stronger, and we look very much forward today to pursuing that agenda.”
Hamada said Japan, too, believes the rules-based structure is under attack. “Today, the international community is faced with the severe security environments due to Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, China’s unilateral change of status by force in the South and East China seas, and remarkable development of North Korea’s nuclear and missile-related technologies among others,” he said through a translator. “The foundation of the international order has been undermined.”
Austin said the trilateral alliance makes the region safer. “I look forward to strengthening our trilateral defense cooperation today, including reaching out together in the region and expanding our trilateral military activities and deepening our technology cooperation,” he said. “Working together strengthens our integrated deterrence, and it moves us all toward a safer and more prosperous region.” (Source: US DoD)
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