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30 Sep 22. Defense Leaders Look to Improve U.S-Philippine Interoperability. Pledging to strengthen the partnership between longtime allies, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Jose C. Faustino Jr., officer-in-charge of the Philippine Department of National Defense, met at Camp Smith, Hawaii.
The talks between the two defense leaders are based on the shared vision “of an open secure and prosperous Indo-Pacific, free from coercion or bullying,” Austin said during remarks after the meeting. “The United States remains unwavering in our support for a strong and independent Philippines that can defend its sovereignty, ensure prosperity for its people and strengthen security in the region.”
The U.S. military works closely with the Philippines. An example of this is the extensive exercise program. Austin said the two countries participate in more than 300 exercises annually that range in size from the huge Balikatan exercise to port visits to exchanges of experts. “This cooperation goes on every day, and it supports our alliance and our obligations under the mutual defense treaty,” he said.
All of this is covered under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement signed in 2014. “Our U.S. and Philippine Visiting Forces Agreement allows us to continue working closely together and it lets us respond quickly to disasters and crises,” the secretary said.
“Our two countries are working together to reach a common understanding of the importance of our defense alliances and what it means to recognize each other as equal partners in advancing our respective countries interests and in promoting peace and prosperity in the region,” Faustino said.
The alliance, though, is deeper than simply the mutual defense treaty, Austin said. There are profound bonds between the people of the Philippines and the United States. “This includes strong friendships between our countries’ uniformed personnel and our veteran communities, and our proud diaspora communities immeasurably strengthen our two proud democracies and our partnership,” he said.
The United States and the Philippines have a long history together. “We fought together, we trained together,” Austin said. “We are allies, … but we consider ourselves to be more family than anything else. And I’m proud to say … that I cannot imagine a day where the United States and the Philippines aren’t allies. It is who we are.”
Faustino and Austin said the priority areas for the alliance included strengthening mutual defense treaty commitments, enhancing maritime cooperation and building on the mutual defense posture. They also said it was necessary to improve interoperability and information sharing.
“By deepening our cooperation and modernizing our alliances, we can help secure the Philippines’ future, tackle regional challenges and promote peace and security in the Indo-Pacific,” the secretary said. (Source: US DoD)
29 Sep 22. Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launch military operation in Iraqi Kurdistan. On 28 September, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) announced the launch of a new phase of their military operation in Iraqi Kurdistan against the Iranian-Kurdish opposition for their alleged involvement in supporting ongoing protests in Iran. As part of the operation, the IRGC fired at least 73 surface-to-surface ballistic missiles and dozens of drones targeting multiple cities, including Erbil and Suleimaniyah. Local sources report that the majority of the missiles and drones targeted Kurdish opposition civilian and military assets in Koya, approximately 60 kilometres from Erbil. At the time of writing, at least 13 people have been killed in the strikes, including an American citizen, and 58 injured, with fatalities involving civilians and children.
SIGNIFICANCE
* This represents the second attack conducted by the IRGC against targets in Iraqi Kurdistan, following the shelling of the headquarters of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (PDKI) on 24 September and comes amid a significant escalation in tensions. On 28 September, CENTCOM confirmed that they downed an armed drone heading towards Erbil which threatened the physical security of US personnel and assets. Senior Iranian military leaders affirmed attacks will continue to target “terrorist” entities who reportedly pose a threat to Iran’s stability.
* The uptick in assaults against Kurdish targets in Iraqi Kurdistan comes as nationwide anti-government protests persist in Iran, with activists demonstrating against state repression for the 13th consecutive day (see Sibylline Alert – 23 September 2022). Despite enforced internet blackouts, activists continue to organise protest activity across several provinces. The IRGC maintain that Kurdish separatists based in Iraqi Kurdistan are driving this civil activism as protests following the death of Mahsa Amini on 18 September, began in the Iranian Kurdistan region.
* Recent developments also come amid deteriorating political stability in Iraq, as polarised political alliances continue to block the formation of a stable government (see Sibylline Alert – 2 August 2022). Iranian interference in Iraqi politics has been at the centre of political feuds between Iran-backed parties and the Sadrist Movement, with the uptick in IRGC attacks on Iraqi Kurdistan threatening to fuel domestic political unrest and exacerbate political fissures.
* The Iraqi Foreign Ministry summoned the Iranian ambassador in Baghdad to denounce Tehran’s persistent attacks on northern areas, naming it a clear violation of Iraqi sovereignty. Western and regional governments including the US, the UK, and Egypt have also condemned the Iranian attacks and called on Iran to cease indiscriminate bombardment of Kurdish towns.
FORECAST
Senior IRGC leaders have reaffirmed that further such attacks in the area will continue as long as Kurdish “terrorist” entities in the Iraqi Kurdistan region continue to threaten the stability of the Iranian government. It is therefore highly likely that sporadic drone and missile strikes will endure in the coming days and weeks. By attacking Kurdistan, the IRGC is looking to stifle dissent domestically and send a message of force to the local opposition by demonstrating its cross-border reach.
Further Iranian attacks will expose businesses and organisations operating in Kurdistan to greater bystander risks and mobility disruptions, particularly in the vicinity of buildings and areas utilised by the Iranian-Kurdish opposition. The US and other Western governments will likely impose further sanctions on Iran in response to its recent attacks, further complicating the nuclear negotiations. However, such sanctions are unlikely to deter Iran from conducting further attacks.
Iranian strikes are likely to contribute to the additional destabilisation of the Iraqi government as feuds between Iran-backed parties, and their opponents, continue to deepen the political stalemate. This will harm the prospects of government formation in the short-term, further worsening socio-economic health and exacerbating violence, domestic unrest, and protests. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Sep 22. Ukraine-Russia: Accession agreements will be signed on 30 September, beginning formal annexation process of four occupied oblasts. Russia announced that it will begin the formal legislative process of annexing four Ukrainian oblasts on 30 September. Moscow-installed election officials reported that ‘98 percent’ of voters in these territories opted to join Russia. The signing ceremony is likely to be the first step of the formal annexation process, and will likely culminate early next week. The treaties signed during the 30 September ceremony will then pass through the Constitutional Court and the State Duma and Federation Council. State Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin said that parliamentary approval will take place on 3-4 October. It is likely that President Vladimir Putin will sign them formally into law, officially annexing the territories. However, Putin will possibly recognise the independence of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia oblasts during his speech on 30 September, aligning them with the Donbas (whose independence has already been recognised by Russia). (Source: Sibylline)
29 Sep 22. Asia-Pacific: Increased Western military activity will elevate policy risks, likelihood of confrontation. South Korean government officials announced on 29 September that trilateral US-South Korea-Japan anti-submarine exercises will resume on 30 September for the first time since 2017. This underscores the intention of Seoul and Tokyo to overcome political differences for the benefit of their shared security interests. Additional North Korean missile launches may take place during or after the exercises, but will pose no significant threats to regional businesses. Also on 29 September, the air forces of Germany and Japan pledged to enhance bilateral co-operation. The British foreign secretary, James Cleverly, will announce the UK’s sustained commitment to the Asia-Pacific region, including its security and defence. Western military activity in the region will increase tensions with North Korea and China. In particular, Beijing will likely perceive Western military activity as evidence of containment. As such, it will maintain a hardline foreign policy in the coming years, elevating policy risks for Western countries, as well as South Korea and Japan. This hardline stance will increase the risk of military confrontation. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Sep 22. Nigeria: Third-party candidate threatens to split opposition support, elevating risk of violence in southern regions. On 28 September, campaigning began for the February 2023 presidential and national assembly elections. Of the 18 presidential candidates, only two have a realistic chance of winning. These are Bola Tinubu of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and Atiku Abubakar of the opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). However, polling by San Francisco-based Premise Data Corp identified that 72 percent of respondents intend to vote for Peter Obi of the Labour party. Obi had contested the PDP ticket before Abubakar’s nomination. However, it is unlikely that Obi will win the election, as he will likely struggle to secure support in northern Nigeria or overcome the established patronage networks enjoyed by Tinubu. Nevertheless, he could undermine support for the PDP in the south, increasing tensions around campaign events in southern regions and elevating the risk of violence to bystanders. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Sep 22. Pakistan: Attack against Chinese nationals underscores increased threat to bystanders. On 28 September, a gunman posing as a patient killed one Chinese-Pakistani dual national and injured two others at a dental clinic in Karachi’s Saddar area (Sindh province). While no group has yet claimed responsibility, the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) has a history of targeting Chinese personnel, and is therefore likely to be responsible. The BLA killed three Chinese nationals in April during a suicide bomb attack at Karachi University. Earlier this week, the BLA shot down a military helicopter in Balochistan province, killing six military personnel. The latest attack in Karachi highlights increasing BLA activity at a time when the Pakistani Taliban are also gaining strength in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, heightening the overall threat to bystanders. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Sep 22. Mexico: Armed attack against police in Zacatecas state underscores sustained violent crime risks. On 29 September, six people (including five police officers) were shot dead by unidentified gunmen at a sports facility in Calera (Zacatecas state). The Secretary of Public Security of Zacatecas announced the launch of an investigation to find the perpetrators. Zacatecas is a strategic drug smuggling hub between Mexico’s Pacific ports and the US, signalling that the attack is likely linked to ongoing turf wars between drug trafficking organisations. With the highest homicide rate of all Mexican states in 2021, Zacatecas remains one of six Mexican zones on a US government ‘travel alert’. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Sep 22. Iraq: Attempted storming of Parliament highlights worsening security environment near Green Zone. On 28 September, supporters of the Shia cleric Moqtada al-Sadr gathered near the capital Baghdad’s fortified Green Zone and attempted to storm the parliamentary building. Additionally, three rockets reportedly struck the Green Zone at approximately 1530 hrs (local time). In response, the security forces closed the al-Sinak and Jumhuriya bridges to prevent access to the Green Zone. The protest activity occurred as lawmakers met for the first time since 23 June to vote on the resignation of Iraq’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammed al-Halbousi. Activists claim that al-Halbousi’s resignation betrayed the Sadrist bloc. Al-Halbousi’s re-election will ease the backlash from Sadrist supporters in the immediate term. However, the establishment of a new political alliance between the Iran-backed Co-ordination Framework, as well as Kurdish and Sunni parties will sustain the likelihood of demonstrations. The security environment near government buildings and the Green Zone will remain volatile in the coming days and weeks, heightening bystander risks for personnel nearby. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Sep 22. Canada bolsters RCAF’s air mobility operations in Europe. The enhancements include deployment of a third CC-130J and more support personnel to the Prestwick hub. The Royal Canadian Air Force (RCAF) is set to receive enhancements to its air mobility operations at its Scotland-based hub in Prestwick. It was confirmed by the Canadian Department of National Defence (DND) in a statement on 26 September.
The latest enhancements include the addition of a new CC-130J aircraft to the RCAF’s existing Tactical Airlift detachment, as well as deploying personnel to support cargo movements, maintenance and administration.
Besides, the DND has transitioned the current Tactical Airlift Detachment in Prestwick to Air Mobility Detachment.
This change signifies an increase in the detachment’s operational flexibility and capacity to bolster Canada’s military support to Ukraine and other European countries.
The Air Mobility Detachment will now comprise up to 55 Canadian Armed Forces (CAF) members.
Depending on the operational needs, the RCAF’s CC-177 Globemaster aircraft crews will continue extending support to increase mission flexibility and efficiency, using the hub’s resources.
With the latest augmentation, Canada will continue to undertake support operations in Europe, the Middle East and Africa, along with the delivery of Ukraine-related military aid. (Source: airforce-technology.com)
27 Sep 22. DOD, Kurdish Peshmerga Continue Partnership to Fight ISIS. Assistant Defense Secretary Celeste Wallander met with Iraqi leaders last week to reaffirm the U.S. partnership with the nation, and to underscore the U.S. commitment to supporting Iraq in the defeat-ISIS mission.
Wallander, the assistant secretary for international security affairs, also signed an updated memorandum of understanding with Shoresh Ismail Abdulla, the Kurdistan Regional Government minister of peshmerga affairs, on Sept. 21. The agreement sets out mutually agreed parameters for the next four years as the U.S. continues to support to the peshmerga for Defeat-ISIS operations.
In Baghdad, Wallander met with Iraq Defense Minister Jumah Inad Sadun and other defense leaders. She underscored the long-term partnership between the United States and Iraq and discussed on-going efforts to build the operational capacity of the Iraqi security forces. She and Iraq’s defense leaders looked at expanding the cooperation between the two nations beyond counterterrorism operations to address emerging threats and increase collaboration and interoperability.
Wallander then traveled to the Iraqi city of Irbil where she met with Kurdish officials, including Nechirvan Idris Barzani, president of Iraq’s Kurdistan region and commander in chief of the peshmerga.
The memorandum of understanding she signed on behalf of the Department of Defense continues the critical partnership with the peshmerga stretching back to the first Gulf War. “For decades, we have worked together based on shared objectives and a common commitment to the mandate that all people deserve dignity, security and the right to seek a better future,” she said during the signing ceremony in Irbil.
The enemy today is the Islamic State of Iraq and Syria. The terror group burst from the ungoverned areas of Syria in 2014 and overwhelmed forces arrayed against it. The Department of Defense first signed an MOU with the Kurdistan Regional Government in 2016, when ISIS held large swaths of territory across Iraq, to clearly demonstrate DOD’s commitment to the peshmerga as they and other Iraqi security forces worked with the global coalition to liberate millions of Iraqis from ISIS terror.
“Since 2014, the U.S.-led coalition has supported Iraq’s fight against ISIS,” Wallander said. “Together, we liberated more than 50,000 square kilometers from ISIS control, including critical infrastructure and population centers in Iraq’s Kurdistan region, freed more than 4.5 million Iraqis from ISIS terrorism, and provided our Iraqi-Kurdish partners with recovery and stabilization support.”
ISIS no longer holds territory, but it continues as a shadowy terror group to target the citizens of Iraq and populations across the broader region. “The United States remains committed to supporting the Iraqi Security Forces, including the Kurdish peshmerga, to ensure the enduring defeat of ISIS,” she said.
The updated memorandum serves as an organizing framework for the provision of defeat ISIS assistance to the peshmerga — outlining DOD’s commitment to provide support and the Kurdistan Regional Government’s commitment to continued reforms that will modernize the peshmerga forces.
U.S. forces remain in Iraq at the invitation of the government to advise, assist and enable Iraqi security forces. “We must continue to work together to protect the gains made against ISIS and set the conditions for the next phase of the fight by denying ISIS even the smallest opportunity to resurge,” Wallander said. “This MOU will guide the Department of Defense’s future assistance to the peshmerga, which is a pillar of the department’s broader ‘D-ISIS’ partnership with the government of Iraq.”
“On this occasion, I want to offer my deep appreciation and respect for the tremendous sacrifices made by members of the peshmerga who gave their lives in the fight to defeat ISIS,” Wallander said. “The United States is cognizant of the cost of victory to the peshmerga, and we are honored to be your partners — on and off the battlefield.” (Source: US DoD)
27 Sep 22. Iraq: Speaker’s resignation will not aid government formation amid political deadlock, civil unrest. On 26 September, Iraq’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammed al-Halbousi, submitted his resignation, requesting lawmakers to vote on his departure on 28 September. There is a realistic possibility that lawmakers will vote for al-Halbousi to retain his position as speaker, reaffirming his legitimacy and authority amid Iraq’s ongoing political deadlock. Alternatively, al-Halbousi’s resignation possibly represents a strategy to facilitate the formation of a government. It removes a key obstacle blocking the State Administration Coalition, a new political alliance which includes representatives from the Iran-backed Co-ordination Framework. Polarised alliances are driving civil unrest, underpinning Iraq’s critically unstable political environment. Although activist groups have called for peaceful protests in the capital Baghdad on 1 October, violent escalation near parliamentary buildings and clashes between opposition parties are highly likely. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Sep 22. Pakistan: Former finance minister’s return will boost investor confidence, drive domestic unrest. On 26 September, Ishaq Dar returned to Pakistan to reprise his previous role of finance minister. The news has boosted investor confidence, with the rupee rising to 1.1 percent in interbank trading and surpassing 3 percent in the open market. Dar’s first priority will be to secure IMF aid and to negotiate Pakistan’s debts amid poor socio-economic health following severe floods. This will likely require Dar to maintain high energy costs, sustaining a high risk of domestic unrest in the short term. However, Dar will likely also undertake popular programmes in the medium to long term ahead of next year’s elections, sustaining policy risks and threatening IMF support. (Source: Sibylline)
27 Sep 22. Japan-Russia: Expulsion of Japanese diplomat will aggravate bilateral relations, regional tensions. On 26 September, Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) announced that it had detained a Japanese consul in Vladivostok on espionage charges, and that it had ordered his expulsion within 48 hours. The diplomat was allegedly caught receiving unspecified and allegedly secret information about the effect of Western sanctions on Russia’s Primorsky Krai region, as well as Russia’s co-operation with an undisclosed Asian country (likely to be China). The FSB’s announcement follows new sanctions imposed by Japan on Russia that same day. These include bans on exporting chemical weapon-related products to Russia. On 27 September, Japan’s chief cabinet secretary, Hirokazu Matsuno, denied the espionage allegations and demanded an apology. In addition to worsening bilateral diplomatic relations, the likely retaliatory charges will elevate policy risks for Japanese businesses operating in Russia, further disrupting supply chains. Moreover, they will aggravate regional tensions with regard to disputed territories, likely emboldening Sino-Russian military co-operation in Asia and beyond. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Sep 22. AUKUS members renew pledge to strengthen defence ties. Member nations have issued a joint statement reaffirming their collective commitment to strengthening trilateral security relationship. Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have marked the one-year anniversary of AUKUS with a joint statement renewing a shared commitment to enhancing the trilateral security partnership to support an international order that “respects human rights, the rule of law, and the peaceful resolution of disputes free from coercion”.
The AUKUS partners reported making “significant progress” towards supporting Australia’s acquisition of “conventionally armed, nuclear-powered submarines”.
“We are steadfast in our commitment to Australia acquiring this capability at the earliest possible date,” the statement read.
Amid concerns over the program’s adherence to nuclear-non-proliferation agreements, the members stressed a commitment to the “highest level of nuclear safety, security, and stewardship, reiterating Australia would not acquire nuclear weapons.
“The United States and United Kingdom are fully committed to establishing an approach to sharing naval nuclear propulsion technology with Australia that meets the highest non-proliferation standard,” the members noted.
The members then welcomed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) director General Mariano Grossi’s report to the September IAEA board of governors meeting, which reported “satisfaction” with the program.
“The international community can be confident that our nations will continue to work transparently with the IAEA towards an approach that will strengthen the non-proliferation regime,” the AUKUS nations added.
The nations went on to confirm plans to strengthen cooperation on the development of emerging technologies, including hypersonics and counter-hypersonics, electronic warfare capabilities, cyber, artificial intelligence and autonomy, quantum technologies, and additional undersea capabilities.
“To support further progress on these initiatives, we continue to promote greater information and technology sharing, foster deeper integration of our industrial bases and supply chains, and accelerate our defence innovation enterprises,” the statement read.
“As our work progresses on these and other critical defence and security capabilities, we will seek opportunities to engage allies and close partners.”
AUKUS members concluded: “Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States have a proud history of working together, along with other allies and partners, to protect our shared values and uphold the rules-based international order.” (Source: Defence Connect)
26 Sep 22. North Korea conducts ballistic missile test launch off east coast. It is the DPRK’s first intercontinental ballistic missile launch since 2017. North Korea (DPRK) has reportedly launched a short-range ballistic missile into the sea offshore from the east coast of the Korean peninsula. The launch comes two days after the US Navy’s nuclear-powered aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan (CVN 76), arrived in Busan, South Korea, on 22 September.
For the first time since 2017, the Nimitz-class vessel CVN 76 and its strike force will be involved in a series of bilateral drills to showcase both nations’ naval power.
The DPRK’s latest missile launch also comes in response to US Vice President Kamala Harris’ expected visit to South Korea and Japan in the coming days.
According to a Reuters report, the South Korean military said that a single ballistic missile was fired from the Taechon area of North Pyongyang Province.
Following the launch, the missile flew about 600km, with a speed of Mach V and at an altitude of 60km. (Source: naval-technology.com)
26 Sep 22. Sri Lanka: Threat of domestic unrest elevated after government’s decision to curb protest activity in Colombo. On 24 September, hundreds demonstrated in Colombo against the government’s attempt to curb the right to protest, leading to 84 arrests. The protests came a day after authorities designated several areas of the capital as high-security zones (HSZs), around which protest activity is prohibited. These include the Presidential Palace, Supreme Court building, Prime Minister’s residence and defence headquarters, among others. International rights groups and local activists have severely criticised the government’s arrest of activists and crackdown on protests. Following a lull in demonstrations since unrest around the resignation of former President Gotabaya Rajapaksa, the designation of HSZs in the capital and associated crackdown will likely instigate further protests. Additionally, the measure will cause mobility restrictions in the form of additional checks around the designated HSZ areas and measures such as prohibitions on the parking of private cars around HSZs. (Source: Sibylline)
26 Sep 22. China: Social media-based coup rumours untrue, government stability remains unaffected. Between 23-24 September, rumours of an alleged coup against President Xi Jinping by the military gained traction on social media, but have been subsequently debunked. The rumours appeared to have originated from India-based or Falun Gong-affiliated accounts. They likely gained traction due to the recent lack of reports showing Xi in public (he is believed to be isolating as per China’s Covid-19 policies since his return from Uzbekistan) and due to the proximity of the upcoming 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) on 16 October. At this event, he is expected to be confirmed as the leader for a third consecutive term. Despite the CCP’s secretive nature, media and political activities remain normal; government and policy risks remain unaffected. While a coup remains a possibility, its likelihood will remain low, due to Xi’s concentration of power and, more recently, due to official media confirmation that Xi will attend the 20th National Congress. (Source: Sibylline)
23 Sept. 22. Russia to spend $600bn on defence and security by 2025. Russia is planning to spend a total of 34trn roubles ($600bn) on national defence, security and law enforcement between 2022 and 2025 under its latest expenditure plan, a source familiar with finance ministry calculations told Reuters on Friday. Russia is engaged in a costly military campaign in neighbouring Ukraine, for which it has this week announced the mobilisation of another 300,000 troops. According to the latest figures, Russia will spend a total of 18.5trn roubles in 2022-2025 on national defence, of which 4.7trn will be spent this year. Previously, Moscow had planned to spend 3.5trn roubles on national defence this year out of a total 10.9trn over the period 2022-2024. This year’s projected security and law enforcement spending remains unchanged at 2.8trn roubles. The 15.6trn roubles expected to be spent between 2022 and 2025 compare with a previous allocation of 8.7trn for the period 2022-24. (Source: Google/Reuters)
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