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23 Sep 22. U.S. aircraft carrier arrives in South Korea as warning to North. A U.S. aircraft carrier arrived in South Korea on Friday for the first time in about four years, set to join other military vessels in a show of force intended to send a message to North Korea, officials said.
USS Ronald Reagan and ships from its accompanying strike group docked at a naval base in the southern port city of Busan.
Its arrival marks the most significant deployment yet under a new push to have more U.S. “strategic assets” operate in the area to deter North Korea.
Strike group commander Rear Admiral Michael Donnelly told reporters aboard the ship that the visit had been long planned and was designed to build relations with South Korean allies and boost interoperability between the navies.
“We are leaving messaging to diplomats,” he said, when asked about any signal to North Korea, but added that joint drills were designed to ensure the allies were able to respond to threats anywhere at any time.
“It’s an opportunity for us to practice tactics and operations,” Donnelly said.
South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol has pushed for more joint exercises and other displays of military power as a warning to North Korea, which this year conducted a record number of missile tests after talks failed to persuade it to end its nuclear weapons and missile development.
Observers say Pyongyang also appears to be preparing to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017.
North Korea has denounced previous U.S. military deployments and joint drills as rehearsals for war and proof of hostile policies by Washington and Seoul.
The visit is the first to South Korea by an American aircraft carrier since 2018. That year, the allies scaled back many of their joint military activities amid diplomatic efforts to engage with North Korea, but those talks have since stalled, and Pyongyang this month unveiled an updated law codifying its right to conduct first-use nuclear strikes to protect itself.
Questions have risen over the role the roughly 28,500 U.S. troops stationed in South Korea might play if conflict erupts over Taiwan.
Donnelly said such questions are for policymakers above him, but said that operating with like-minded allies such as South Korea is a key part of the U.S. Navy’s efforts to maintain the regional security and stability that has existed for more than seven decades.
Officials declined to provide details of the upcoming joint drills, but said the carrier would be in port for “several days” while its crew visited Busan. Just hours after the ship docked, long lines of crewmembers formed as they took COVID-19 tests before being bused into the city. (Source: Reuters)
22 Sep 22. Imagery shows N. Korea may soon launch new missile submarine – think tank. North Korea may be preparing to launch a new submarine believed to be capable of firing ballistic missiles, a U.S.-based think tank reported on Thursday, citing commercial satellite imagery.
Images of the Sinpo South Shipyard, on the east coast of the country, from Sept. 18 revealed six barges and vessels gathered around the construction hall quay, said 38 North, which monitors North Korea.
“While barges and a dry dock have been occasionally observed around the submarine launch quay at the main construction hall, the presence of six vessels and barges in this area has not been observed before,” said the report, which concluded that the activity suggests preparations to launch a submarine.
The report comes as U.S. President Joe Biden accused North Korea of “blatantly violating U.N. sanctions” in a speech to the U.N. General Assembly on Wednesday, citing the country as among the reasons to strengthen international nuclear nonproliferation efforts.
Analysts first spotted signs that at least one new submarine was being built in 2016, and in 2019 state media showed North Korean leader Kim Jong Un inspecting a previously unreported submarine that was built under “his special attention” and that would be operational in the waters off the east coast. State media at the time did not describe the submarine’s weapons systems or say where and when the inspection took place, but analysts said the apparent size of the new vessel indicated it was designed to carry missiles.
North Korea has a large submarine fleet but only one known experimental submarine capable of carrying a ballistic missile.
Analysts have debated whether the apparent new missile submarine is a new design, or whether it is based on a modified Romeo Class of submarine originally acquired from China in the 1970s before North Korea began producing them domestically. Amid an unprecedented flurry of missile tests this year, North Korea test-fired a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) in May from near Sinpo, where North Korea keeps submarines as well as equipment for test-firing SLBMs.
Observers say North Korea has made preparations to resume nuclear testing for the first time since 2017, amid stalled denuclearisation talks. (Source: Reuters)
21 Sep 22. Pakistan: Planned Protest. On 22 September at 14:30 local time, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan was formally indicted for contempt of court by the Islamabad High Court. Khan is being tried for making alleged threatening remarks towards high court judge Zeba Chaudhry during a rally on 20 August in Islamabad. Security has also been bolstered in the capital in anticipation of an upcoming ‘long march’ protest by PTI workers to Islamabad from Punjab.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Imran Khan was initially charged under the Terrorism Act for his remarks; however, those charges were dropped by the court which is now pursuing a contempt of court charge. The Islamabad High Court expressed dissatisfaction over Khan’s failure to issue a formal unconditional apology for his remarks against the judge. Khan had also remarked to journalists before a previous hearing of the case that sending him to jail would make him “more dangerous”. The indictment will start a formal trial of contempt and if found guilty, Khan could be disqualified from contesting elections, as well as face potential imprisonment.
- In anticipation of the ‘long march’ protest calling for early elections, and in support of Khan, the Islamabad police have sealed off the ‘Red Zone’ area (see map below) with shipping containers. Authorities have also placed barbed wire and containers to cordon off D-Chowk (see map below), which is a popular protest site. Furthermore, the city administration has called for 30,000 additional officers from other provinces and blocked entry points to Islamabad to prevent PTI workers from entering. The capital is already facing ongoing protests by farmers under the banner of Pakistan Kissan Ittehad (PKI) in the F-9 park area of Islamabad, who are protesting inflation and demanding subsidies to meet soaring production costs.
FORECAST
While Imran Khan has not yet officially given the call for a ‘long march’ protest, it is likely that it will take place between tomorrow (22 September) and Sunday (25 September). Section 144 – which bans the gathering of people – has already been imposed in Islamabad. Protests will likely be dealt with in a heavy-handed manner by security forces, raising threat levels to bystanders. Furthermore, significant disruptions to transport and supply chains due to road closures around Islamabad, as well as within Islamabad, are likely in the coming days. An unfavourable court decision against Khan will likely instigate a stronger response from PTI supporters, triggering more intense unrest in the capital.
The worsening economic conditions, with total flood damage now estimated at USD 30bn will also continue to drive domestic unrest for the foreseeable future, with high levels of inflation, particularly rising energy bills and fuel prices, driving discontent. Khan had warned of increasing protest activity after the floods subside and hence, there will likely be an increase in PTI rallies in the upcoming weeks. In response, the government may impose curbs on media companies, and streaming networks, as well as possible internet shutdowns, to reduce PTI’s outreach during rallies and protests.
Government instability risks will remain elevated in the coming months as Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is unlikely to agree to the PTI’s demands for an early election, sustaining a stalemate between the government and the PTI. Both the PTI and Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) party will continue to not only make polemical comments inciting the public but will also use available legal means to file cases against each other that will sustain ongoing political instability.
20 Sep 22. Somalia: Increased pressure on al-Shabaab positions could potentially reduce threat of attack in neighbouring Kenya. Over 17-18 September, the Somali armed forces supported by local clan militias allegedly killed over 100 al-Shabaab militants during operations to recapture Aborey and Yasooman villages east of Bulobarde town in the central Hiran region. The operation comes amidst a broader government offensive against al-Shabaab positions in their stronghold areas of central and southern Somalia. Additionally, during Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud’s trip to Washington last week, discussions were held with US officials over new counter-insurgency strategies in anticipation of military operations in the southern Jubbaland State. The offensive over the weekend underlines the increasing effectiveness of current counter-insurgency efforts, supported by rising US engagement. Further operations will significantly elevate pressure on al-Shabaab territorial influence in southern and central Somalia, potentially reducing their capacity to conduct cross-border attacks into northern Kenya in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
20 Sep 22. Ethiopia-Eritrea: Mobilisation underlines likely continuation of conflict amidst stalled talks. On 17 September, the Canadian government claimed that Eritrea had issued a general call to mobilise the armed forces. Local Eritrean sources claim that citizens up to the age of 60 are being conscripted. The announcement follows the latest resumption of fighting between the Ethiopian government and its allies and the rebel government of the northern Tigray region, the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) last month (see Situation Update Brief – 2 September). The development underlines the likely continuation of fighting around West Tigray and northern Amhara through the coming weeks, as both sides seek to enhance their position in negotiations. Despite the TPLF indicating a willingness to engage in peace negotiations earlier this month, unofficial talks in Djibouti remain stalled. This will elevate the threat of further sanctions against Ethiopia and Eritrea by Western nations, particularly following findings by a UN panel released on 19 September that all sides have likely committed war crimes. (Source: Sibylline)
19 Sep 22. Canada Plans to Increase Spending on North American Defense.
The Defense Department welcomes Canada Defense Minister Anita Anand’s June 20 announcement of plans to enlarge Canada’s defense budget and make significant investments in North American Aerospace Defense Command modernization and continental defense, said Air Force Gen. Glen D. VanHerck, commander of NORAD and U.S. Northern Command.
The plans, according to Anand, call for spending $40.4bn over the next 20 years. A portion of this increase will be allocated to initiatives aligned with the investment priorities established by U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and previous Canada Defense Minister Harjit Sajjan in their August 2021 “Joint Statement on NORAD Modernization,” Anand said.
These include investments in NORAD capabilities related to:Enhancing situational awareness, including the establishment of over-the-horizon radar sites to improve coverage of Canada’s airspace and to monitor northern approaches to North America.
Modernizing command and control systems to make better, more timely use of data and enable more effective military operations.
Bolstering defeat and support capabilities, including the acquisition of additional and longer-range air-to-air missiles and refueling capabilities.
Upgrading Canadian bases used by NORAD to support more robust and flexible air operations across northern North America.
Investing in research, development and innovation, including the establishment of a dedicated science and technology program for the defense of North America.
“Minister Anand’s statement adds detail to her May 18, 2022, speech to the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, where she expressed the commitment of the Canadian government to working closely alongside the United States and investing substantively in NORAD modernization to ensure the continued security of the North American continent,” said VanHerck.
“She then promised to present ‘a robust and detailed plan for NORAD modernization’ and to continue to engage Secretary Austin on this shared priority,” VanHerck added. (Source: US DoD)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company
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