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13 Jul 22. New Zealand to explore more proactive defence agenda. The New Zealand Ministry of Defence (MoD) has launched a Defence Policy Review that could represent a significant shift in posture and military engagement in the Pacific region.
The review builds upon the Defence Assessment 2021, published in December that year, which identified China and climate change as pressing strategic threats to New Zealand.
Under the review’s terms of reference released on 7 July, it is stated that since the publication of the Defence Assessment, “the impetus for a comprehensive review has increased in importance”, considering Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Michael Swain, deputy secretary of Defence Policy and Planning at the MoD, told Janes, “It is clear that the regional and international security environment is changing rapidly. This was illustrated in Defence Assessment 2021. Subsequent developments, including the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Solomon Islands-China security agreement, have underscored the challenges we face.” (Source: Janes)
15 Jul 22. Sri Lanka: Further unrest likely until unity government is formed, despite Rajapaksa’s resignation. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation was officially announced on 15 July. Sri Lanka’s parliament will meet on 16 July to begin the process of electing a new president. While the constitution gives MPs up to a month to elect a new president, the speaker of parliament believes the process will be completed within seven days. While Rajapaksa’s resignation has been well received by demonstrators, the outcome of the impeding election will determine the level of unrest in the country. Further protests are highly likely if Rajapaksa’s party, which still holds a majority, continues to back the unpopular acting president, Ranil Wickremesinghe. The factor which will most likely mitigate the risk of unrest is the formation of a unity government. A high security presence around Sri Lanka’s parliament is expected in the coming weeks, which will likely cause supply chain disruption. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. Colombia: ELN and FARC dissidents clash in Arauca and kidnap individuals, underscoring elevated risks in border regions. On 14 July, the 10th Front FARC dissident group and columns from the National Liberation Army (ELN) guerrillas continued to clash in Arauca department, heightening physical threats to civilians. At least 14 individuals linked to the government’s demobilisation efforts have reportedly been kidnapped. The ongoing confrontations underscore the very high risks for staff in the Colombia-Venezuela border area. On the same day, members of the 33rd Front Farc dissident group released a video shot in front of government offices in the city of Tibú, Norte de Santander department, declaring control of the city. This dynamic of ‘confrontation for control’ will likely increase in the coming months, especially as the killing of several FARC dissident leaders has severely de-stabilised the balance of power in border areas. Moreover, as the border is likely to be reopened by the incoming Petro government, the scale of smuggling in frontier areas is expected to shrink, increasing competition among criminal groups. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. Mali: Continued disruption to UN operations likely, despite co-ordination talks. Mali’s foreign ministry announced on 14 July that it will temporarily suspend the rotation of all UN military and police contingents. The statement comes shortly after the arrest of 49 soldiers from Cote d’Ivoire working for a private firm providing logistical support for the UN Mission to Mali (MINUSMA). The authorities also stated that they will not allow MINUSMA freedom of movement, despite the mission’s renewal last month. It was confirmed that the suspension of troop rotations will remain in place until a meeting is held with MINUSMA representatives to discuss future co-ordination. However, these talks will only resolve the impasse temporarily; it is highly likely that Mali’s current stance towards MINUSMA is influenced by its relationship with Wagner, a Russian private military company (PMC), as well as its desire to conduct military operations without UN oversight. As such, restrictions on MINUSMA’s movement are likely to be imposed sporadically, particularly during military operations. This will impact NGOs and contractors working alongside the UN. 14 Jul 22.
15 Jul 22. Kenya: US Partnership likely to boost international investment in Kenya. On 14 July, the US and Kenya launched a strategic trade and investment partnership to increase international investment in the latter by promoting sustainable and inclusive economic growth. The US Trade Representative’s office announced that both countries will liaise before November to develop strategies to enhance co-operation in areas such as agriculture, anti-corruption and digital trade. Co-operation in these fields is likely to boost investor confidence in Kenya. The announcement comes ahead of the expiration of Kenya’s access to the US market through the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) in 2025. However, the partnership does not make provisions for reducing tariffs or increasing market access. Furthermore, while negotiations regarding a deal were launched in 2020, they have not developed since. Nevertheless, it is possible that the initiative will provide the groundwork for a free trade agreement before the AGOA expiration date, allowing for increased market access and further boosting economic growth in Kenya. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. South Korea: Seoul Pride rally likely to attract counter-protests by conservative Christians. Tens of thousands of people from South Korea’s LGBTQ+ community and their supporters will gather on 16 July at the capital’s Seoul Plaza for the annual Pride festival. The turnout is expected to be high, as it will be the first in-person Seoul Pride event in two years due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Given the plaza’s central location, road closures will cause localised traffic and logistical disruption. Organisers of Seoul Pride have encountered significant opposition from conservative politicians and religious groups, which have attempted to block the city authorities’ approval for the event. It is highly likely that conservative Christian organisations and other opponents of Pride will hold counter-protests nearby. A heavy security presence will help keep opposing groups apart, though there is a realistic possibility that minor scuffles will take place, especially after the official conclusion of the Pride event. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. Kazakhstan: Nur-Sultan seeks to capitalise on the socio-economic crisis in Russia, driving tensions with Moscow. President Kassym-Jormat Tokayev said on 14 July that Kazakhstan must work to create “favourable conditions” for international companies which have departed Russia since the invasion of Ukraine. The statement highlights how the war has created new opportunities for Central Asian states, to which foreign companies and skilled Russian workers, especially those in the IT sector, may now be attracted. At the same time, Tokayev’s statement is likely to be negatively perceived by Moscow amid the already strained diplomatic relations between the two states. Should Kazakhstan explicitly capitalise on the socio-economic crisis in Russia, the likelihood of the Kremlin retaliating by limiting the exports of staple goods or causing disruption to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) in the coming months will increase. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. Panama: Failed dialogue between government and protesters signals sustained high risk of unrest in coming days. On 14 July, Panamanian unions and other social groups currently staging nationwide protests against the high costs of living failed to attend a dialogue meeting called by the government of President Laurentino Cortizo. While the call for dialogue was made after Cortizo announced new fuel subsidies and a reduction in state spending to appease protesters, these moves were branded as “insufficient”. Students, labour unions and other organisations have engaged in strikes and roadblocks since 6 July (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update- 12 July 2022). The breakdown in talks signals that strike-related disruption is unlikely to cease in the coming days, with roadblocks and demonstrations continuing across the country. Roadblocks have been reported in the provinces of Azuero, Chiriquí, Coclé, Colón, Panama Oeste, and Veraguas, including along the along the Pan-American Highway between Panama City and David in Chiriquí province. Violent clashes have also been reported, increasing the risks to bystanders. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. Lebanon: Persistent strikes will continue to impact state functions and business environment. On 14 July, civil servants at Lebanon’s information ministry participated in a public strike in Beirut to air grievances over wages which have significantly devalued due to Lebanon’s currency depreciation. The International Labour Organisation predicts that nearly 100 percent of Lebanon’s civil servants are now participating in some form of industrial action. Persistent strikes will continue to impact Lebanon’s ability to function as a state, including the judicial system and aviation operations due to strikes by air controllers (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 6 July 2022). Moreover, the suspension of Lebanon’s National News Agency will interrupt the distribution of vital information and updates on the country’s domestic situation, which are essential for local and international audiences. Government inaction will sustain the occurrence of strikes, elevating the probability of protests in key cities such as Beirut and Tripoli. Civil unrest and protracted industrial action will compound long-term operational risks for businesses. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. Saudi Arabia: Opening of airspace likely to foster steps towards start of a normalisation process with Israel. Saudi Arabia’s General Authority of Civil Aviation (GACA) announced on 15 July that it will open its airspace to all carriers that meet the GACA’s requirements, signalling steadily improving relations with Israel. The development comes amid the visit of the US president, Joe Biden, to Saudi Arabia, and is intended to thaw relations with a crucial Gulf partner. The move will allow the overflight of Israeli airlines and direct flights from Israel for Muslims participating in the Hajj pilgrimage. It will also reduce flight times and fuel consumption, improving the operations of airlines which previously had to bypass the kingdom’s air space. It will also likely boost Saudi Arabia’s tourism sector moderately. The announcement demonstrates the relevance of Biden’s visit, as well as Washington’s commitment to Israel’s normalisation of relations framework. Saudi Arabia’s overtures signal warming ties, and possibly precede moves towards a normalisation process. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. Canada: Resumption of random Covid-19 testing will exacerbate air travel disruption, showcasing persistent policy risks. The Canadian government announced on 14 July the resumption of random Covid-19 testing for travellers arriving at the country’s four main airports. Random testing was suspended last month amid complaints by the local air travel and tourism industry that it was compounding problems faced by the sector. These issues stem from staff shortages and increased passenger numbers, which have resulted in long queues and operational disruption at airports. Industry representatives warned that a resumption in testing will discourage travellers and undermine the sector’s ability to take full advantage of the global rise in travel demand to recover from the negative impact of the pandemic. However, amid a global rise in Covid-19 cases, the government has decided to resume random testing at Calgary, Montreal, Toronto, and Vancouver airports from 19 July. The decision will likely exacerbate severe delays, lost luggage, and missed flights. It also highlights the sustained pandemic-related policy risks. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Jul 22. Brazil: Congress approves spending package, undermining investor confidence as Bolsonaro pushes populist policies ahead of election. On 13 July, Brazil’s Congress approved a major new spending bill pushed by President Jair Bolsonaro as his support continues to fall ahead of the October presidential election. The bill will increase social welfare payments by 50 percent and also includes a USD 185 pay out to self-employed truckers and benefits for taxi drivers. Bolsonaro has argued the additional social spending is necessary to help Brazilians cope with high domestic inflation, which has increased in recent months to 12.13 percent. This is the latest in a series of populist initiatives pushed by Bolsonaro in a bid to increase voter support ahead of the elections, particularly targeting his support base that includes truckers and taxi drivers. Polls show that former president, Lula da Silva, continues to lead voting intentions with 48 percent ahead of 27 percent for Bolsonaro. Critics warn the additional spending will reduce foreign investment as it will further stoke inflation and may lead to renewed monetary tightening. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Jul 22. Iraq: Elevated risk of civil unrest during Friday prayers as political instability persists. On 13 July, local media warned of an increased likelihood of civil unrest during tomorrow’s Friday prayers, on 15 July. The alert was triggered by Shia Cleric Moqtada al-Sadr’s call for a “unified prayer” across central and southern Iraq amidst deepening political instability as Sadr attempts to force the dissolution of parliament, including through the forced resignation of Sadrist lawmakers on 12 June (see Sibylline Global Weekly Update – 15 June 2022). Authorities fear a repeat of large-scale violent protests by Sadrist supporters which took place in February 2017 following a similar appeal from the Shia leader. Therefore, there is an elevated threat of civil unrest, particularly in eastern Baghdad neighbourhoods including Sadr City, as well as Tahrir Square and near the Green Zone, where sit-ins are expected to take place. Whilst protesters are unlikely to target foreign entities, armed confrontations are likely in the event of escalations, significantly heightening threats to bystanders. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Jul 22. Ghana: IMF funding provides potential route to contain rising inflation and mitigating unrest. On 13 July, Ghana’s statistic agency announced that consumer inflation accelerated to 29.8 percent annually in June from 27.6 percent in May. This has largely been driven by a rise in the price of basic goods such as bread, which increased by 44.5 percent, and fuel which has pushed transport costs up 41.6 percent. This trend underlines the limited effectiveness of recent interest hikes, particularly as current inflation is driven primarily by supply side constraints. Regardless, further hikes are likely as the government attempts to stop the fall in the cedi which has weakened 24 percent since January. Additionally, the government is currently seeking a loan of USD 1.5 bn from the International Monetary Fund, with a decision set to be announced by 25 July. Funding would allow Ghana to cancel plans for high interest loans, helping to contain the fall in the value of the cedi, thereby potentially reducing inflation and mitigating threats of further protests in Accra. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Jul 22. U.S., Israeli leaders jointly pledge to deny Iran nuclear weaponry. U.S. President Joe Biden and Israeli Prime Minister Yair Lapid pledged on Thursday to deny Iran nuclear weapons, a show of unity by allies long divided over diplomacy with Tehran. The undertaking, part of a “Jerusalem Declaration” crowning Biden’s first visit to Israel as president, followed his telling a local TV station that he was open to “last resort” use of force against Iran – an apparent move toward accommodating Israel’s calls for a “credible military threat” by world powers. Washington and Israel have separately made veiled statements about possible preemptive war with Iran – which denies seeking nuclear arms – for years. Whether they have the capabilities or will to deliver on this has been subject to debate, however. Thursday’s statement, released to the media ahead of a formal signing ceremony, reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel’s regional military edge and ability “to defend itself by itself”.
“The United States stresses that integral to this pledge is the commitment never to allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon, and that it is prepared to use all elements of its national power to ensure that outcome,” the statement added.
There was no immediate comment from Tehran.
In 2015, it signed an international deal capping Iranian nuclear projects with bomb-making potential. In 2018, then-U.S. President Donald Trump quit the pact, deeming it insufficient, a withdrawal welcomed by Israel.
Iran has since ramped up some nuclear activities, putting a ticking clock on world powers’ bid to return to a deal in Vienna talks. Israel now says it would support a new deal with tougher provisions. Iran has balked at submitting to further curbs.
“The only thing worse than the Iran which exists now is an Iran with nuclear weapons and if we can return to the deal, we can hold them tight,” Biden told Israeli TV on Wednesday.
EYES ON SAUDI ARABIA
Beyond enhancing the allies’ sense of deterrence and mutual commitment, the statement’s power-projection may also offer Biden a boost when he continues on to Saudi Arabia on Friday. Riyadh has its own Iran worries, and Biden hopes to parlay that into an Saudi-Israeli rapprochement under U.S. auspices.
Earlier on Thursday, Biden told reporters he and Lapid had discussed “how important it was, from my perspective, for Israel to be totally integrated into the region”. Lapid, in turn, deemed Biden’s Saudi trip “extremely important to Israel”.
Some Israeli as well as Gulf Arab officials believe the nuclear deal’s sanctions relief would provide Iran with far more money to support proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, Yemen and Iraq. They are also skeptical about whether the Biden administration will do much to counter Iran’s regional activities.
A U.S. official, asked if Thursday’s declaration was about buying some time with Israel as Washington pursues negotiations with Iran, said: “If Iran wants to sign the deal that has been negotiated in Vienna, we have made very clear we’re prepared to do that. And, at the same time, if they’re not, we will continue to increase our sanctions pressure, we will continue to increase Iran’s diplomatic isolation.”
A senior Israeli official described the threat of military action as a means of avoiding war.
“(It) is a guarantee that the diplomatic, economic and legal efforts against Iran will be effective,” Defence Ministry director-general Amir Eshel told Israel’s Kan radio. “Iran has shown everyone that when it is pressed hard it knows how to stop and change its ways.”
The Jerusalem Declaration further committed the United States and Israel to cooperating on defence projects such a laser interceptors, as well as on civilian technologies. (Source: Reuters)
13 Jul 22. Ahead of Mali withdraw, France prepares future Sahel strategy.
Summary
- French troops to leave Mali by end of summer
- Ministers head to Niger, new heartbeat of operations
- Paris consults regional partners, aim for September plan
French officials head to Niger on Friday to redefine the country’s strategy to fight Islamist militants in the Sahel as thousands of troops complete a withdrawal from Mali and concerns mount over the growing threat to coastal West African states.
Coups in Mali, Chad and Burkina Faso have weakened France’s alliances in its former colonies, emboldened jihadists who control large swathes of desert and scrubland, and opened the door to greater Russian influence.
Concerns have grown that the exit of 2,400 French troops from Mali – the epicentre of violence in the Sahel region and strongholds of both al Qaeda and Islamic State affiliates – is worsening violence, destabilising neighbours and spurring migration.
With the withdrawal expected to be completed by the end of the summer, France’s new Foreign Minister Catherine Colonna and Defence Minister Sebastien Lecornu arrive in Niger on Friday to seal a regional redeployment.
Niger will become the hub for French troops, with some 1,000 soldiers based in the capital Niamey with fighter jets, drones and helicopters. Some 300-400 would be dispatched for special operations with Niger troops in the border regions with Burkina and Mali, French officials told reporters in a briefing.
Another 700-1,000 would be based in Chad with an undisclosed number of special forces operating elsewhere in the region. French troops will no longer carry out missions or pursue militants into Mali once the exit is complete, the officials said.
“Beyond Mali, the democratic decline in West Africa is extremely worrying with successive putsches in Mali twice, in Guinea in September 2021, in Burkina Faso in January of this year. France will nevertheless continue despite these events, this withdrawal from Mali, to help West African armies fight against terrorist groups,” Colonna told a parliamentary hearing on Tuesday.
“We are currently consulting with our concerned partners to define with them, according to their requests and their needs, the nature of the support that we can provide them.”
A French diplomatic source said the aim was to present a new strategy to President Emmanuel Macron in September.
French officials said the onus going forward would be on regional countries to lead on security, while also focusing more on development, good governance and education. The ministers would announce 50 m euro aid to enhance the electricity network in Niger as well as budgetary support.
A key area of concern is how and whether French and European troops will used to support countries in the coastal Gulf of Guinea nations such Benin, Togo and Ivory Coast, where there has been a rise in attacks. Al Qaeda’s regional arm has said it would turn its attention to the region.
French officials said that at this stage there had been no formal request for further military assistance. Some European countries had shown an interest in continuing regional operations post Mali, the officials said.
Lecornu will travel to Ivory Coast, which also hosts French troops, on Saturday, while Macron is likely to travel to Benin at the end of July, Colonna said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
13 Jul 22. Sri Lanka: Mass Unrest Will Persist. Mass unrest continued to escalate in Colombo today (13 July), as tens of thousands of protesters demanded the resignation of acting President Ranil Wickremasinghe. The government has also declared a nationwide emergency and imposed an indefinite curfew in Western province, in which the Sri Lankan capital is located. Defying these restrictions, angry protesters stormed and occupied public establishments such as the prime minister’s office and the national TV broadcaster, the Sri Lankan Rupavahini Corporation, while also targeting Ranil Wickremesinghe’s house and the parliament building.
The situation in Colombo remains tense as protesters are currently making their way to take over the Parliament building. They are being met with heavy resistance from the army, who are using tear gas to disperse protesters. Today’s protests follow mass demonstrations on 9 July that led to the occupation of the President’s House (see Sibylline Alert – 9 July 2022).
SIGNIFICANCE
- Prime Minister and Acting President Wickremesinghe has set up a committee comprising the Chief of Defence Staff, Tri force Commanders, and Inspector General of Police with sweeping powers to restore law and order, while allowing peaceful protests. While there have been frequent clashes between protesters and the police, no incidents of security forces using lethal means to disperse the crowd have been reported to date, although the situation remains highly fluid on the ground. Tensions around the Prime Minister’s office that is now occupied by demonstrators appear to be cooling as of 1300 GMT, despite heavy army presence.
- Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled to the Maldives late last night (12 July), though he has not yet tendered the formal resignation letter to the Speaker of the Parliament as per the process stipulated in the constitution. The Speaker has confirmed that Rajapaksa has made former Prime Minister Wickremasinghe the acting president in his absence and will submit his formal resignation by the end of today. Rajapaksa’s eventual destination is believed to be Singapore.
- Today’s unrest escalation underlines protesters’ anger with Wickremasinghe being appointed as the acting president. The prime minster has pledged to step down once a new unity government is established. Wickremasinghe has confirmed that he will only serve the temporary head of state role until 20 July, when parliament will convene to elect a new president.
- Despite a significant turnout, protests today have been staged with no reports of vandalism. However, the situation can quickly deteriorate into episodes of violence as the parliament complex becomes the latest target for the protesters. Police officers and soldiers have been ordered to prevent any attempts of arson or destruction of public property, while at the same time ensuring no loss of life among peaceful protesters. Such a difficult balance means anti-government protesters, often outnumbering security forces, are more likely to succeed in seizing important buildings. However, the significance of the Parliament will likely call for a more stringent response by army forces.
FORECAST
The ongoing mass protests and unrest will persist until the official resignation of both Gotabaya Rajapaksa and Ranil Wickremasinghe with protesters aiming to take over more buildings associated with Wickremasinghe and the government. Wickremesinghe had earlier indicated that he would run in the presidential contest on 20 July. This move, albeit unlikely, will nearly certainly instigate another popular uprising. Looking ahead, 19 July, the day nominations are to be presented in Parliament, could well trigger significant protests again if Wickremasinghe announces his bid for the presidency. Opposition party leaders have already called for his resignation.
Security risk to bystanders remains high as protests can quickly turn violent. Likely triggers for violent escalations include mass arrest of protesters or use of lethal force by security personnel. Significant military presence, the clogging of roads by protesters and the ongoing occupation of several high-profile buildings around the government complex in Colombo’s Fort area – which is also the central business district – will sustain transport and supply chain bottlenecks in the capital.
Colombo airport remains operational, though over 100 incoming flights have been diverted to the Indian airports of Kochi and Trivandrum in Kerala after the declaration of emergency. More countries will likely upgrade their travel risk advisories advising against travel to Sri Lanka over security concerns and political instability. The US embassy in Colombo has said it has cancelled all consular services today and tomorrow. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Jul 22. US citizens told to leave Ukraine immediately. The US Embassy in Kyiv issued a security alert late on Thursday urging all American citizens in Ukraine to leave immediately.
The alert, which appeared to be in response to a deadly Russian attack on the Ukrainian city of Vinnytsia, asserted that large gatherings and organised events “may serve as Russian military targets anywhere in Ukraine, including its western regions”.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky repeated his call for Russia to be declared a state sponsor of terrorism.
“No other country in the world represents such a terrorist threat as Russia,” Mr Zelensky said in his nightly video address.
“No other country in the world allows itself every day to use cruise missiles and rocket artillery to destroy cities and ordinary human life.”
(Source: Daily Telegraph)
13 Jul 22. Austin, Marles Discuss Future of Australia, U.S. Alliance.
The meeting between Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III and Australian Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Richard Marles was more of a family reunion than a strategic summit.
The two men met in the Pentagon to discuss what Austin called the “unbreakable alliance” between the two countries. The two met in Singapore last month. The Pentagon meeting comes on the heels of the NATO Summit in Madrid, where Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese met with alliance leaders including President Joe Biden.
“For decades, our two great democracies have been bound together by shared history, our deep friendship and our common values,” Austin said. “And the United States and Australia are both standing strong to counter Russia’s unprovoked and unjustified invasion of Ukraine.”
Austin chairs the Ukraine Defense Contact Group and Australia is a member of that group channeling materials to Ukraine to help defend itself. “I’m grateful for Australia’s leadership in supporting the Ukrainian people as they fight for their lives, and our freedom and our democracy,” he said.
Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine challenges the rules-based international order in Europe, and China is challenging the order in the Indo-Pacific region.
Both Austin and Marles said they were particularly saddened by the assassination of former Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe. They called Abe a champion of the international order and said he had done much to strengthen the Indo-Pacific’s security, stability and prosperity.
Abe’s vision for the region is under attack. “Today that vision faces some major challenges,” the secretary said. “China’s disruptive and destabilizing actions threaten to undermine our values, our interests and our shared conviction that all states should be free to choose their own paths without coercion or intimidation.”
The two leaders look to discuss several ways to uphold a free and open Indo-Pacific. The secretary said he is proud of the work that the United States and Australia have done to make the alliance stronger and more capable.
Marles said the global rules-based order is being put under a pressure not seen since the end of World War II. The Russian attack on Ukraine – though thousands of miles from Australia – is a concern to the nation. He noted that the invasion challenges Australian principles and Australian national interests. He said this is why Australia is “the largest non-NATO contributor to their assistance.”
China “seeks to shape the world around it in a way that we’ve not seen before,” Marles said. He noted that China is also engaging in a huge military build-up, “that is a very significant phenomenon, which presents enormous challenges to both of us.” (Source: US DoD)
13 Jul 22. Syria: Death of IS leader unlikely to improve security, sustaining continued threat of localised attacks. On 12 July, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that a drone strike in north-western Syria killed Maher al-Agal, a key Islamic State (IS) leadership figure. Al-Agal, one of the group’s top five leaders, was responsible for the development of networks outside Iraq and Syria. The strike comes as the US president, Joe Biden, begins his much-anticipated first trip to the Middle East. It is likely that the visit is a sign of US commitment to addressing the region’s challenges and threats. The operation follows a sustained targeting campaign over the past few months, in which several senior IS figures were neutralised. However, due to an increasingly de-centralised network, al-Agal’s death will have a short-term impact on IS operations and the group’s ability to carry out local attacks, sustaining risks for businesses linked to critical infrastructure. Militants will continue to exploit the deepening political and social instabilities to recruit and control local communities. They will also utilise porous borders to facilitate unregulated cross-border movement between Syria and Iraq, elevating existing risks to business operations. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Jul 22. Zambia: IMF debt restructuring talks will support debt reduction efforts, likely mitigating risk of further project cancelations. On 12 July, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) announced that creditor committees for Zambia’s debt restructuring are expected to meet within the next ten days. The announcement follows the finance ministry’s decision on 9 July to cancel over USD 2 bn worth of projects financed by commercial loans to mitigate the threat of accruing more non-concessional debt. The country’s economic growth is expected to slow to 3.1 percent from 3.6 percent in 2021 due to reduced agricultural output. Furthermore, the government is currently implementing a law to increase parliamentary oversight on borrowing. The IMF talks will support the country’s debt reduction efforts, likely alleviating concerns among investors of further project cancelations, particularly as Western companies shift their mining activities to countries like Zambia from Russia. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Jul 22. Sri Lanka: Ongoing protests increase risk of clashes, disruption in commercial capital. On 13 July, Prime Minister Ranil Wickremesinghe was confirmed as the country’s acting president. Gotabaya Rajapaksa, who fled to the Maldives last night, will officially step down as president by the end of today. Wickremesinghe declared an island-wide state of emergency, as well as a curfew in the commercial capital Colombo. Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets in Colombo to voice their rejection of Wickremesinghe. Protesters targeted the national television station, the prime minister’s office, Wickremesinghe’s house and parliamentary buildings. After an initial stand-off that lasted nearly four hours, tensions have now eased in the city. Nevertheless, there remains a heightened military presence near the four listed protest sites, while demonstrations will continue to cause significant transport disruption. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Jul 22. South Pacific-Australia-US: New regional initiatives likely to complicate geopolitical dynamics, increase competition with China. On 13 July, the US vice president, Kamala Harris, revealed a new regional climate change and development strategy at the Pacific Island Forum (PIF). The initiative includes a US envoy to the PIF, establishing US embassies in Kiribati and Tonga and donating around USD 60 m a year in funding to the Pacific Islands for the next decade. These initiatives will enhance US regional influence, and will also bolster US co-operation with Australia and New Zealand. Separately, Australia and Fiji announced the building of a USD 83 m maritime domain awareness centre in Fiji, which will improve Fijian maritime security capabilities, especially for its fisheries. Similarly, Australia’s defence minister called for the US to enhance its military presence in the Indo-Pacific, a move which will further militarise the region. This will consequently increase the US-China rivalry, raising regional tensions and operational maritime risks. Great power competition will also complicate domestic and regional relations, as evidenced by Kiribati’s earlier withdrawal from the PIF. 13 Jul 22. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Jul 22. Haiti: Deadly gang violence in Port-au-Prince highlights severe risk of violence. Since 8 July, clashes between rival criminal gangs have taken place in Port-au-Prince’s Cité Soleil commune. Reports indicate that around 50 people have been killed and hundreds of others have been injured during the violence. Furthermore, people are currently trapped in Cité Soleil without food, water or medical supplies. Gangs have also blocked access to the Varreux port terminal’s fuel depot. Gang violence has increased following the July 2021 assassination of the former president, Jovenel Moise, and the August 2021 earthquake. Gangs have since operated with almost total impunity, exercising effective control over multiple poor and densely populated neighbourhoods in Port-au-Prince, including Carrefour, Cité Soleil, Delmas, Martissant and Petionville. The current violence highlights the sustained risk of serious unrest across Haiti amid a continuous deterioration in the security, socio-economic and political situation. (Source: Sibylline)
13 Jul 22. Lebanon: Beirut Port protest highlights enduring institutional corruption, sustained civil unrest risks. Local media on 13 July reported that relatives of the victims of the August 2020 Beirut Port explosion will hold a sit-in protest at the port from 1900 (local time) to demonstrate against alleged government inaction. This comes amid debates in government surrounding the destruction of the remaining silos, with the public arguing that the demolition would eradicate evidence and jeopardise a fair investigation into the explosion. The erratic probe into the cause of the explosion continues to drive bouts of civil unrest (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 24 December 2021), exposing institutional corruption among Lebanon’s political elite. The sit-in will occur as firefighters struggle to contain reoccurring fires at the wheat silos in the past week, underpinning the port’s fragile infrastructure. Government inaction or the reversal of the decision to preserve the silos will sustain bouts of civil unrest in the coming days and weeks in the capital. (Source: Sibylline)
12 Jul 22. Australian Force Posture Review slated for ‘early next year.’
The Commonwealth government is set to undertake a new review into Australia’s $270 bn defence procurement strategy in early 2023, as part of a broader push to avoid a “catastrophic failure of deterrence”.
In an address to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) during his week-long trip to the United States, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister for Defence Richard Marles renewed Australia’s commitment to strengthening the defence and security partnership under the ANZUS treaty.
The Deputy Prime Minister called for enhanced cooperation via both joint military activities and the exchange of defence industry capability to counter what he described as a military build-up “occurring at a rate unseen since World War II”.
Minister Marles flagged the development and deployment of new weapons systems, which “challenge our military capability edge”, and pointed to the expansion of cyber and grey zone capabilities.
This mounting capability threat, he said, is against a backdrop of an “intensification of major power competition”, threatening to “transcend geographic confines”.
Given these challenges, Deputy Prime Minister Marles stressed the US-Australia alliance “can’t afford to stand still” but would instead need to contribute to a “more effective balance of military power” in the Indo-Pacific, aimed at “avoiding a catastrophic failure of deterrence”.
“Events in Europe underline the risk we face when one country’s determined military build-up convinced its leader that the potential benefit of conflict was worth the risk,” he said.
As such, Minister Marles has promised Australia would “do its share”, taking “greater responsibility for its own security”.
The Defence Minister went on to outline Australia’s $270 bn procurement strategy.
“We will make the investment necessary to increase the range and lethality of the Australian Defence Force so that it is able to hold potential adversary forces and infrastructure at risk further from Australia,” he said.
“This will include capabilities such as longer-range strike weapons, cyber capabilities and area denial systems tailored to a broader range of threats, including preventing coercive or grey-zone activities from escalating into conventional conflict.
“We will invest in the logistics, sustainment and depth required for high-intensity war fighting, including guided munitions. This will in turn require deeper engagement with industry to accelerate capability development and strengthen our supply chains.”
This procurement plan would be informed by a new Force Posture Review, which Minister Marles revealed would be conducted “early next year”.
The review would explore how to “best structure ADF assets and personnel, and how to “best integrate and operate” with the United States and other strategic partners.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese had previously said the new review would involve:
- considerations of whether Tomahawk missiles can be fitted to the Collins Class submarines;
- reviewing progress of the Future Frigates project;
- exploring potential upgrades to weapons on the Arafura Class offshore patrol vessels or through additional Hobart Class air warfare destroyers; and
- advancing Australia’s strike weapons procurement program.
But according to Minister Marles, the government’s first priority would be advancing capability promised under the trilateral partnership with the United States and the United Kingdom (AUKUS).
This would include, but would not be limited to, the procurement of a next-generation fleet of nuclear-powered submarines.
“For a three-ocean nation, the heart of deterrence is undersea capability. AUKUS will not only make Australia safer, it will make Australia a more potent and capable partner,” he said.
“That the United States and the United Kingdom have agreed to work with Australia to meet our needs is not only a game changer, it illustrates why alliances help reinforce, not undermine, our country’s national sovereignty.”
Underpinning this approach, would be a push to “integrate technology and industrial bases”, with Australia’s inclusion in the US National Technology and Industrial Base a “vital first step”.
“But implementing it will require change,” Minister Marles added.
“During my engagements this week, I will be proposing specific measures that both sides could adopt to streamline processes and overcome barriers to procurement, investment, information and data sharing systems and export requirements.
“In recommending these steps, we all recognise that integration cannot come at the expense of robust security which protects sensitive information and technology.”
Deputy Prime Minister Marles is scheduled to conclude his visit to the United States on Thursday, 14 July. (Source: Defence Connect)
12 Jul 22. Blyden Says Problems of Sahel Requires African/Partner Coordination, Buy-in. Africa is a huge and complex continent. Its problems are such that it will require African nations working with other nation partners to address the complex problems that beset it, Chidi Blyden, the Defense Department’s deputy assistant secretary for African affairs, said to the Senate Foreign Relations committee.
Blyden testified alongside representatives from the State Department and the U.S. Agency for International Development. The trio emphasized the need for the three entities to work together and work with African partners to accomplish the U.S. strategy. The hearing looked specifically at the Sahel region of Africa — a wide swath that lies between the southern Sahara desert and the savanna lands to the south. It is home to some of the poorest countries on the globe, and security is tenuous in the nations, with some suffering through military coups.
The U.S. National Defense Strategy outlines three security priorities in Africa: countering violent extremist organizations; strengthening allies and partners to support mutual security objectives; and addressing targeted strategic competition concerns that present a military risk to the United States.
“In the Sahel these three priorities intersect in a manner that requires not only an integrated approach, but a whole-of-government approach,” Blyden said. “Over the past six months, we’ve seen that the intersection of these three challenges in the Sahel has resulted in military coups and constitutional political transitions, democratic backsliding in West Africa, the inherent spread of VEOs and an exponential increase in their attacks.”
She noted that Russia’s Wagner Group of mercenaries is active in the region. “These challenges transcend national borders and therefore require a coordinated regional approach,” she said. “As such, it would behoove us to address them together with our African partners.”
Extremist groups are exploiting power vacuums, instability, local tensions and weak government institutions and governing practices, she said. “These groups jeopardize stability, democracy and peace, which further provides opportunities for extremism to proliferate, creating a vicious feedback loop that is fueled by a lack of good governance and human rights accountability,” Blyden said. “When governments struggle to maintain security, deliver essential services, uphold humanitarian principles, or even provide economic opportunities and conflict environments, conditions are ripe for VEOs to exploit and appeal to vulnerable and unprotected marginalized populations.”
These terror groups use trafficking in drugs, weapons and people to finance themselves.
Blyden said there are more than a dozen active Islamic State and al-Qaida affiliates/cells in Africa stretching “from the Sahel to the Lake Chad Basin, from Somalia to.”
These groups present a danger to other nations in Africa including those of West Africa. “DOD is working closely with state in USAID to develop programs for coastal West African countries as part of the Global Fragility Act, … and the U.S. strategy to prevent conflict and promote stability,” she said.
But any solution in the region needs to be an African solution. “We need to integrate our entire approach in the Sahel with our African partners, or we risk undermining our own efforts, and providing additional opportunities for VEOs and strategic competitors to gain access and influence,” she said.
Niger, Chad, Mauritania and others are important nations to work with. The coup in Chad makes that effort moot, but the ruling group in the country has promised to return to civilian rule, she noted.
The United States is not the only country that can work with the nations of the region. “We are encouraging our European allies and African partners operating in the Sahel to adopt a similar approach to … the Sahel strategy, one that seeks solutions that are integrated whole-of-government and African-led,” she said. “We assess that unilateral military action is insufficient to address the scope of threats we face on the continent. And although the continent is awash with new initiatives, it would truly benefit from management of the international community to support our partners and their locally supported efforts.”
The role of the U.S. is to enable African partners to be successful in creating and maintaining their own security. The nations need to “own” their security, she said. “The best way to help them own their own security is to allow them to lead shaping our support to their efforts,” she said.
Africa is also a scene of strategic competition. Russia and China see the strategic potential on the continent. China devotes money and time to cultivate African nations. “As part of its engagement, Russia and the PRC routinely provide training and defense articles to African nations,” Blyden said. “While our African partners have stated repeatedly that they prefer our training and defense articles, they turn to our competitors when we are not responsive to their requests. We must work to be more responsive and more present if we are to succeed in this arena.” (Source: US DoD)
08 Jul 22. Pakistan slashes military modernization fund by 20%. Pakistan’s military modernization it taking a hit, with the government slashing the budget for the Armed Forces Development Program by 72bn rupees (U.S. $346m) — a decrease of about 20%.
The move helps meet a demand by the International Monetary Fund that the country achieve a primary budget surplus of 153bn rupees, or 0.2% of the national output for the new financial year in order to revive an IMF bailout package.
The government allocated 363bn rupees for the AFDP modernization effort when it presented the fiscal 2022-2023 budget on June 10. The revised AFDP figure — 291 bn rupees — was made public by the Finance Ministry after the National Assembly approved the budget.
Analyst and former Australian defense attache to Islamabad, Brian Cloughley, believes the current economic crisis has left Pakistan with no room to maneuver.
“The IMF had to be strict, and one obvious and not unwelcome avenue for [Prime Minister] Shehbaz Sharif is to reduce the defense allocation, although the development program appears to be the only specific target sector,” he said.
Among other adjustments to the FY22-23 federal budget, the defense fund will now receive an additional 41bn rupees; operationally speaking, this could help the military as it faces economic inflation.
This the second year the AFDP budget was cut in response to an IMF demand. The FY21-22 budget was cut from 340bn rupees to 270 rupees.
Defense News asked the Ministry of Defence Production, which handles defense equipment development and procurement, how the latest funding decrease would affect AFDP, but the ministry did not respond by press time.
“It is unlikely that this will have a drastic impact on Pakistan’s overall defense preparedness, and it certainly will not affect nuclear weapons,” Cloughley said. “There will be visible and publicized shelving of some programs, and no doubt military staffs are working hard to determine and recommend action in areas that will have minimal effects on strategic plans.”
Defense economics analyst Fida Muhammad Khan of the Pakistan Institute of Development Economics think tank, thinks the Air Force’s modernization plans could be vulnerable, while the larger Army wields enough influence to escape major damage.
“The Air Force has to stay up to date, fleets need to be battle-ready, and that has a high price,” he said. “These cuts will impact the JF-17 [fighter jet] program, [Pakistan Aeronautical Complex] projects and many more sophisticated weapon programs.”
“Maintaining one jet requires more resources than equipping infantrymen,” he added, noting that modern aerial combat is essentially “fought beyond visual range” and therefore expensive.
Instead of targeting the AFDP fund, he said, the government should after “revisisted” its Public Sector Development Program, meant to encourage private investment by promoting skills among the labor force and improving infrastructure.
With what’s essentially a tax break on high-end tobacco products, done by raising the tax rate band, the government is set to lose out on bns of rupees that were expected to boost revenue from the industry — from 150 bn rupees to 225 bn rupees. Nevertheless, Khan said, the military’s needs will be met. “There is no question or doubt about that. So this is a cut that can be tolerated for once.” (Source: Defense News)
11 Jul 22. Brazil: Killing of opposition party official reflects escalation of political violence head of presidential elections. On 9 July, a policeman shot and killed a member of Brazil’s opposition Workers’ Party (PT), Marcelo Arruda, who was celebrating his fiftieth birthday in the city of Foz do Iguaçu, Paraná state. The policeman broke into the party shouting support for right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro whilst Arruda celebrated the PT and its presidential candidate and current poll frontrunner, former president Lula da Silva. Arruda was also armed, returned fired, and killed the policeman. This is the latest incident of political violence in Brazil, which has been rising ahead of the 2 October presidential elections. On 7 July, a man was arrested after throwing a homemade explosive towards a crowd awaiting Lula da Silva at a campaign rally (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update- 8 July,2022). It is highly likely that there will be further acts of political violence in the run up to the elections as campaigning intensifies, increasing physical threats to staff near campaign events or while in the vicinity of political figures. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Jul 22. South Korea to establish ‘strategic command’ to respond to Pyongyang. South Korea’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) is planning to establish a new command unit to co-ordinate deployment of some of the country’s critical military assets. The move is part of the new administration’s effort to bolster capability against North Korea.
An MND spokesperson told Janes on 8 July that the proposed ‘strategic command’ would be responsible for formulating the Republic of Korea (RoK) Armed Forces’ “substantive response and deterrence capability in view of security situations” facing South Korea.
The strategic command is expected to be established in phases, possibly during the next two years, although its detailed organisation and full remit are yet to be finalised by the MND.
Plans to establish the strategic command were first referenced by the MND in a press notice issued on 6 July following a meeting between South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol, who assumed office in May, and top commanders from the RoK Armed Forces. (Source: Janes)
11 Jul 22. Argentina: Protests demanding President Fernández’s resignation underline growing threat of unrest. On 9 July, thousands of protesters took part in protests in Buenos Aires, La Plata, Mar del Plata, Rosario, Santa Fé, and Mendoza, demanding the resignation of President Alberto Fernández and Vice President Cristina Fernández. The demonstrations were organised to coincide with Argentina’s Independence Day and came just days after the resignation of the former finance minister, Martín Guzmán, triggered a sharp currency devaluation and further increased economic instability. Weak socio-economic conditions will likely continue to trigger protests in Buenos Aires, causing traffic disruptions on the 9 de Julio Avenue and the Mayo Avenue. Strong partisan allegiance from protesters reduces the probability that these demonstrations will trigger a widespread grassroots movement, but economic measures to tackle spiralling inflation could prompt sporadic localised violent protests. The new finance minister, Silvina Batakis, remains unlikely to implement policies that will successfully improve economic conditions, sustaining the threat of unrest through 2022. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Jul 22. Lebanon: Re-joining WCO unlikely to relieve reputational and operational threats for companies. Over the weekend, local media outlet Al-Jadeed reported that the World Customs Organisation (WCO) are committed to reinstating Lebanon’s membership after suspending it in mid-June. The reason for Lebanon’s suspension remains ambiguous, however, it is likely that the government’s failure to adhere to international trade conventions and their inability to financially commit to reforms prompted the move. While senior WCO officials, including Secretary General Kunio Mikuriya, are conducting regular visits to Lebanon to discuss high-level support for domestic customs reform to reduce an expansion of illicit trading and the collection of informal customs revenue, successful reform remains unlikely. Additionally, Lebanon’s crippling financial crisis and enduring institutional corruption has sustained the expansion of organised crime networks and cross-border illicit trade. Re-instating Lebanon to the WCO will therefore have little long-term impact, as government inaction will continue to drive illicit trading, heightening supply chain insecurity, reputational and operational threats, particularly for businesses in the logistics sector. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Jul 22. Positive momentum towards peace and stability in Yemen.
Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward at the UN Security Council briefing on Yemen.
Thank you, President. And, can I start by thanking the Special Envoy and the Assistant-Secretary-General from OCHA, for their briefings – and, to the UN, in general, for their continued efforts on securing long term and lasting peace in Yemen.
We welcome the positive impact on the lives of Yemeni people of the continued reduction of violence, resulting from the truce, and the progress on the confidence building measures.
Special Envoy, we welcome the multitrack process that you have outlined, and Ms Msuya’s proposals for economic recovery. The truce and confidence building measures are important first steps, but, as we’ve discussed before, securing sustainable peace will require ambition and progress on a wide range of issues, including on the economic and military tracks, as well as the unblocking of roads across Yemen.
We also welcome the news that the Military Coordination Committee intends to establish monthly meetings to address the key events of concern.
I’d like to highlight three concerns, in particular:
The first is that the UK remains concerned about the humanitarian, and wider social and economic impact, of the continued road closures around Taiz. Special Envoy, we echo your calls for all sides to coordinate to reach agreement as soon as possible to open the main roads, and reap the benefits of that.
Second, on de-mining, we welcome the reduction in reported civilian casualties since the truce began. But, as you said, Special Envoy, landmines and unexploded ordnance are claiming increasing numbers of civilian lives, including those of children.
Increasing humanitarian access would enable UNMHA to protect some of the most vulnerable Yemenis, so we continue to call on all parties to support de-mining efforts across Yemen.
Third, food insecurity. The global growth in commodity prices, which you both referred to, means increased food insecurity, hunger, famine in Yemen. And food prices have hit record highs. So, we echo Ms Msuya’s call to all donors to ensure that funding is made immediately available for disbursement, at pace, to reduce the suffering.
Finally, the UK also remains concerned about the threat posed by the SAFER oil tanker and the shortfall in funding for the UN’s emergency operation. Inaction will come at a high price.
The UK has pledged $5 m towards the UN plan, and we urge others to commit funding to bridge the remaining $20 m gap so the emergency operation can begin to address the risk of profound humanitarian and environmental damage.
In conclusion, President, we urge parties to continue to show the courageous leadership to build on positive momentum to ensure progress, and to prioritise the peace and stability of Yemen. As the Special Envoy said, this is the best opportunity for peace in years.
I thank you. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
11 Jul 22. Syria: Lack of UN-approved aid route will exacerbate pressures on host communities, likely increasing threats to NGOs and logistics firms. On 10 July, the United Nations (UN) mandate for aid deliveries across the Syria-Turkey border at Bab al-Hawa expired, effectively preventing the safe distribution of humanitarian aid to over 2.4 m people in northern Syria. Russia vetoed the UN Security Council resolution to extend the mandate to an effort to push the international community to increase aid from within Syria, ultimately providing Syrian President Bashar al-Assad with more leverage over the rebel-held areas in northern Syria. In the coming weeks, the inability to deliver aid will sustain threats to food and water security, as well as significantly undermine socio-economic health. This will also likely trigger further displacement from northern Syria, additionally pressuring host communities in southern Kurdish cities in the short-term. Moreover, the lack of a UN-approved route will significantly elevate physical and operational risks for NGOs operating in bordering areas with Turkey and businesses supporting aid operations, such as logistics and transportation firms. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Jul 22. Sri Lanka: Threat of clashes will likely endure until President’s resignation is finalised this week. President Gotabaya Rajapaksa will officially step down on 13 July. Prime Minister Ranil Wickremasinghe, who until 10 July continued to hold the majority in Parliament, announced over the weekend that he would make way for a unity government that secures a majority. Opposition Leader Sajith Premadasa has also indicated that he will contend the Presidency despite not holding the majority. This will sustain heightened political uncertainty over the coming days, threatening government stability and undermining IMF negotiations. The resignation announcements come after violent protests over the weekend that led to the occupation of the President’s house, the torching of Wickremasinghe’s private residence and the injury of six journalists by Sri Lankan police (see Sibylline Alert- Sri Lanka- 9 July, 2022). Protesters have said they will continue to occupy the President’s house until Rajapaksa formally vacates their offices, sustain the threat of clashes in Colombo at least till 13 July. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Jul 22. South Africa: Shootings in bars underline elevated bystander exposure to gang violence. On 10 July, at around 00:30 AM, unidentified gunmen killed 15 people in a tavern in Nomzamo, a settlement in the Orlando district of Johannesburg’s Soweto, killing 15 people. In a separate incident, at around 20:30 PM on 9 July, unidentified gunmen killed four people and injured eight others in a tavern in the Sweetwaters district of Pietermaritzburg. Both incidents followed a shooting in another tavern on 8 July in Katlehong, Ekurhuleni, 40 kilometres southeast of Johannesburg, killing two and injuring four. The motives behind the shootings are currently unknown, and the incidents are not thought to be connected. However, it is likely connected to an uptick of crime and gang violence in recent months, which has prompted community leaders in Soweto to call for an increased security presence. While gangs are less likely to directly target local staff, turf warfare and attempts to extort local businesses will pose elevated threats to bystanders particularly in less economically developed areas of major towns and cities. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Jul 22. Nigeria: Presidential ticket increases threat of sectarian violence around 2023 election. On 10 July, Bola Tinubu, the presidential candidate for the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) selected Kashim Shettima, the governor of the northeastern Borno State, as his running mate. Both Tinubu and Shettima are Muslims, marking a series of breaks with recent political tradition. First that the presidency shifts between Muslims and Christians (current president Muhammadu Buhari, is also a Muslim), second that presidential tickets include both a Muslim and a Christian. This will play into the rhetoric of the opposition People’s Democratic Party (PDP). Over recent years the PDP has sought to bolster its influence over predominantly Christian southern communities by claiming that the APC primarily represents the interests of northern Muslims. This will increase the threat of sectarian violence around the February 2023 general elections. Sectarian violence will likely be greatest in Central and Southern states, particularly as tensions mount over conflict between primarily Islamic pastoral armed groups and largely Christian sedentary farmers in Middle Belt states. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Jul 22. China: Violence during bank fraud protest will likely prompt central government intervention. On 10 July, around a thousand victims of a financial scandal involving four Henan-based rural banks, protested outside the local office of the People’s Bank of China – the central bank – in Zhengzhou, the provincial capital of Henan. Protests demanding the banks release depositors savings have been ongoing since April when the banks froze their accounts after reportedly running into financial difficulties. However, the demonstration on Sunday, was the largest protest to date, marking an escalation in tensions over the issue. Reports of members of security forces, including an unknown group of plain-clothes men, charging and attacking the protesters highlight Chinese authorities’ sensitivity and intolerance towards large public protests. With the protesters directing anger at the banks and the local authorities in Henan, the central government is likely to intervene in the dispute, compelling the banks to resolve the matter and thereby reducing domestic unrest over the coming weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
09 Jul 22. Iran says U.S.-backed air defence pact with Arabs will raise tensions. Iran’s foreign ministry said on Saturday that plans by the United States and Israel for a joint defence pact with Arab states to counter the threat of Iranian drones and missiles would only increase regional tensions.
“The entry of foreigners in the region …will not create security and stability but is itself the main cause of tension and regional rift,” ministry spokesperson Nasser Kanaani said, according to state media. The United States and Israel are seeking to lay the groundwork for a security alliance with Arab states that would connect air defence systems to combat Iranian drone and missile attacks in the Middle East, sources familiar with the plan said.
Speaking ahead of U.S. President Joe Biden’s trip next week to the Middle East which is to start in Israel, White House spokesman John Kirby said on Thursday that U.S. officials are discussing ways of integrating air defence capabilities with regional leaders in the face of a threat from Iran. But Kanaani said: “America raises such issues… solely with the aim of sowing Iranophobia and division among the countries in the region.” (Source: Google/Reuters)
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