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01 June 22. SA Defence corruption and fraud totals R2.2bn – Provost Marshal General. The SA Army is the largest component of the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) and the largest “contributor” to fraud and corruption in the force, topping the lists of convictions and suspensions.
A recent presentation to the Joint Standing Committee on Defence (JSCD) by the “top cop” in the SANDF showed 30 landward force “officials”, to use Rear Admiral (JG) Mokgadi Maphoto’s word, are suspended while investigations into corruption and fraud allegations continue. They range in rank from major and brigadier generals through to colonels, lieutenant colonels and captains as well as warrant officer, sergeants and privates.
The amounts involved in the 56 cases under investigation range from R8m to R95 120 with 14 cases involving millions of rands, according to the presentation by the Provost Marshal General.
The army shares the dubious distinction with the SA Military Health Service (SAMHS) of each having three convictions. Fines imposed, not differentiated between military, magistrate’s or commercial courts, are R13 000 for the guilty military medics and R12 000 for the three landward force personnel.
Next on the convictions list is the Logistics Division and the SA Air Force (SAAF) with two guilty parties each followed by the SA Navy (SAN), Joint Operations Division and Special Forces.
The elite soldiers of the SANDF were imposed with by far the highest fines, totalling over R341 000, far more than those incurred by SAMHS (R13 000), Army (R12 000) and the R11 000 of Logistics Division.
Public Service Act personnel (PSAP), the civilian component of the Department of Defence (DoD) and the SANDF are not immune to the forbidden fruits of corruption and bribery with 10 presently suspended. Amounts involved range from R1.2m to R211 856.
Maphoto’s presentation noted five forensic audits regarding irregular expenditure in the DoD and SANDF.
One is the by-now notorious and ongoing refurbishment and upgrading of 1 Military Hospital in Thaba Tshwane. This R10 m investigation is complete and the Hawks (Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation) are in possession of a Military Police Division report.
Other forensic audits completed are for the irregular awarding of a DoD assets management contract (R604.5m); irregular expenditure at the Catering School (R561 120); another, unspecified, asset management contract (R447 290) and a through life capability management (TLCM) contract valued at R239 040.
The one-star admiral at the law enforcement helm of the SANDF told parliamentarians a summary of DoD and SANDF corruption and fraud cases showed R2.2bn involved. This is across all four SANDF services (air force, army, military health and navy) as well as Joint Operations, Defence Intelligence, Logistics Division, Command and Management Information Services, Special Forces and the “Office of the former Minister of Defence (Nosiviwe Mapisa-Nqakula, now National Assembly Speaker)”.
The money involved in corruption and fraud in the SA Army is R1.065bn, by far the largest, followed by Logistics (R400m), SA Navy (R295m), Command and Management Information System (CMIS) at R234m, Joint Operations (R138m), and SAMHS (R58m). (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
01 June 22. South Korea: Uncertainty. South Korea’s ruling People Power Party (PPP) is projected to win 10 of the 17 metropolitan mayoral and gubernatorial posts, including the mayoral position in Seoul, in the 1 June local elections, according to exit polls from three major TV broadcasters.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The local elections were the first major test for President Yoon Suk-yeol, who succeeded Moon Jae-in on 10 May. Despite losing the presidency, Moon’s Democratic Party (DP) continued to hold a strong majority in South Korea’s legislature, the National Assembly. While the next legislative elections are not scheduled until 2024, Wednesday’s poll saw 17 metropolitan mayoral and provincial governor positions, 226 lower-level council heads, 779 seats in provincial and metropolitan councils, 2,602 positions in local councils, and seven National Assembly seats up for election.
- This contest is also largely seen as a symbolic referendum over Yoon’s first month in power. While public opinion polls taken by research institute Gallup Korea on 10-12 May shows that 52 percent of the population support Yoon since he took office, the new president is still reeling from the series of scandals implicated him over the past year. Most notably, Seoul Metropolitan Police planned to question Yoon’s wife, Kim Keon-hee over allegations that she falsified her academic and career records during job applications in 2013-2014.
- Meanwhile, the DP is projected to win four posts, including the governorships in the Jeolla provinces. Former presidential candidates Lee Jae-myung (DP) and Ahn Cheol-soo (PPP) are projected to win their respective parliamentary by-elections in Incheon’s Gyeyang-B district and Seongnam’s Bundang-A district. This means Lee will retain a seat in the National Assembly and Ahn will regain his first parliamentary position since 2017. The outcome will pave the way for them to contest the presidency again in 2027. Lee is particularly likely to run for the presidential race again, having only lost the 2022 vote by a 0.73 percentage-point gap.
FORECAST
The PPP’s projected convincing victory in the local elections will likely significantly reduce the DP’s ability to counter the government’s legislative proposals at the local level. That said, with a majority in the National Assembly, DP lawmakers can still disrupt or stymie hotly contested policies proposed by President Yoon and the PPP, such as Yoon’s plan to improve national labour flexibility by reducing labour market regulations.
Although promising local election results will strengthen the Yoon administration and the PPP’s mandate, there is no guarantee that the ruling party can maintain such popularity heading into the parliamentary election in 2024, especially if the scandals continue to unravel. Indeed, Moon’s embroilment in corruption scandals at least partly contributed to the DP’s defeat in the last presidential election. As such, significant developments regarding the police’s investigation of Kim Keon-hee and/or the emergence of further scandals will likely weaken public support for the PPP, and increase the DP’s chance to retain the control of the National Assembly. (Source: Sibylline)
01 June 22. China: Economic stimulus plan seeks quick-fix solutions, but economic and policy uncertainties will persist into 2023. On 31 May, the State Council released more details about its previously-announced 33-point stimulus policy package (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 25 May 2022). Among others, Beijing seeks to reduce unemployment, support domestic SMEs, foreign businesses and FDIs, retain its expat workforce, and invest in infrastructure. Local governments will be responsible for stabilising the economy in Q2, laying a “solid foundation” for the second half of 2022, and for maintaining a reasonable growth rate ahead of the 20th Party Congress. These short-term deadlines are more likely symbolic achievements to further justify President Xi Jinping’s expected reappointment for a record third term. However, it will take much longer to overcome socio-economic health risks caused by recent Covid-19-related lockdowns and to improve investors’ confidence. As such, the central and local governments will be under increasing pressure to stabilise the economy and drive growth, ultimately sustaining related policy risks into 2023. (Source: Sibylline)
01 June 22. Ethiopia-Kenya-Somalia: Rising threats to food security will drive domestic unrest and increase international pressure to secure resumption of grain exports from Ukraine. On 31 March, USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network stated that multiple areas of Somalia face a moderate threat of famine in the coming months. This comes amidst the first fourth consecutive failed rainy season in the Horn of Africa in 40 years (see Sibylline Alert – 9 March). It is likely that these conditions will push the numbers of people facing food insecurity in Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia up from 16.7 m to 20 m by September. Additionally, climate modelling from the World Meteorological Organisation indicates that the region’s October to December rainy season could also fail. International agencies have called for greater humanitarian support, but food and fuel inflation has increased costs at a time when multiple agencies and countries are redirecting aid budgets to assist Ukraine. Acute food insecurity will elevate domestic unrest within the region and increase pressure on western countries to ensure the resumption of food exports from Ukraine.
01 June 22. South Africa: Extension of fuel price relief unlikely to counter impacts of rising prices, driving domestic unrest. On 31 May, the government extended a reduction in the general fuel levy until August. The fuel levy has been cut to USD 0.1 per litre since March, and the current proposal would see this extended until 6 July, after which point it will be lowered to USD 0.05 per litre until 7 August. The cost of extending the subsidy for two months is estimated at around USD 290m. Although the relief measure will provide some respite from rising prices, its impact is limited with fuel prices continuing to rise to record levels, as high as USD 1.56 per litre in some provinces from 1 June. As high fuel prices continue to drive food and transport price hikes, it is likely that the government’s gradual removal of the relief will elevate threats of domestic unrest in the coming months. (Source: Sibylline)
01 June 22. Pakistan: Ceasefire with TTP is unlikely to bring lasting peace to the region. On 1 June, Pakistani authorities, and representatives of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) agreed to indefinitely extend an ongoing ceasefire and continue negotiations to end a nearly two-decade long insurgent campaign by the TTP. The government has already released imprisoned TTP fighters while TTP attacks have dramatically reduced in the last month indicating that negotiations have thus far been positive. However, talks between the two sides in the past have fallen through due to the TTP’s demand of reversing the merger of tribal border areas with the province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, an issue that no doubt will cause a stalemate in negotiations, the next round of which is slated for the second week of June. However, risks of terrorism and attacks remain elevated in Pakistan, despite the TTP’s ceasefire. Other militant groups, such as the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISIS-K) and the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), have gained prominence lately, with foreign businesses, religious and security establishments being the most likely targets, while attacks in crowded cities also pose a threat to bystanders. (Source: Sibylline)
01 June 22. Myanmar: Explosion in economic capital highlights enduring threat from ongoing conflict. On 31 May, an explosive device detonated near a crowded bus stop in downtown Yangon, killing at least one civilian and injuring nine others. The area was subsequently sealed off, and security forces claimed to find and detonate two more devices following the incident. No group has yet taken responsibility for the explosion, however, state media blamed “terrorists” that continue to oppose the military junta. While the shadow National Unity Government (NUG) has denied that they, or any of the civilian militia People’s Defense Forces (PDF) under their command, were responsible. Instead, the NUG allege that the explosion was orchestrated by the junta to discredit the opposition, with PDF continuing to carry out attacks against military-associated targets. While the motivations are unclear, the explosion underlines the sustained threat of violence to residents as the military junta struggles to maintain control. (Source: Sibylline)
01 June 22. Argentina: Fuel shortages in Northern provinces unlikely to abate, threatening supply chains amid harvest. On 30 May, the governor of Argentina’s Tucumán province, Osvaldo Jaldo, met with the National Federation of Truck Drivers (FADEEAC), and convinced it to delay a strike over diesel shortages in northern Argentina. The FADEEAC announced that it will delay any further actions until 3 June. The truck drivers’ organisations have denounced severe diesel shortages over the past months (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 11 April 2022), threatening to stage a nationwide strike that would likely cause massive supply chain disruptions during the harvest season. The shortages are linked to price distortions deriving from the national government’s decision to set the price of oil sold to national refineries, which has driven oil firms to export most of the oil produced. The sustained shortage signals that the issue will likely maintain moderate energy risks over the next 12 months in the northern provinces of Jujuy, Salta, Formosa, Tucumán, Misiones, Corrientes, Santa Fé, and Entre Rios. (Source: Sibylline)
01 June 22. Chile: Additional Covid-19 vaccination requirement to avoid restrictions increases right-wing unrest risks. On 31 May, Chile’s Health Minister María Yarza announced that the ‘Covid-19 passport’ vaccination certificate will expire on 1 June for all those who have not received a fourth Covid-19 vaccine, limiting entry to hospitality and entertainment venues. The policy of continual vaccinations to prevent major Covid-19 outbreaks will likely elevate policy risks for the hospitality sector while elevating the likelihood of unrest, particularly from right-wing activists as the approval ratings of the newly elected leftist President Gabriel Boric continue to fall. While protests will likely cause limited disruption, these could lead to public property destruction and violent confrontations with the security forces. A leading indicator of potential unrest risks will be confrontational statements by right-wing political leaders such as José Antonio Kast, which could trigger protests. Separately, the measure will likely hinder economic activity and further damage Boric’s approval, increasing government incentives to lift the restrictions if the population strongly opposes them. (Source: Sibylline)
01 June 22. HMS Tamar visits Darwin: Royal Navy ships complete first deployment of Indo-Pacific. The Royal Navy vessel HMS Tamar visits Darwin this week after successful completion of a first deployment in the Indo-Asia Pacific as part of Britain’s permanent naval presence in the region.
The Royal Navy vessel HMS Tamar visits Darwin this week (w/c May 30) after successful completion of a first deployment in the Indo-Asia Pacific as part of Britain’s permanent naval presence in the region. HMS Tamar visits the Northern Territory briefly for crew rotation, before continuing its permanent deployment in the region.
Over the course of their five-year deployment, HMS TAMAR and sister ship SPEY plan to work with allies and partners across the region and plan to visit countries from Australia to Japan, and Fiji to Singapore.
Since deploying in September 2021, Tamar and her sister ship Spey have travelled 25,000 nautical miles to Columbia, through the Panama Canal, transiting along the US West coast and into the region via Hawaii. Some of the highlights of Tamar’s operations include:
- In January Tamar patrolled the East China Sea to conduct monitoring and surveillance against illicit maritime activities, including ship-to-ship transfers with North Korean-flagged vessels prohibited by the United Nations Security Council resolutions (UNSCRs). This activity served to ensure that commitments to demilitarization is adhered to in the Democratic people’s Republic of Korea and ensure Rules Based International Security is upheld.
- In February Tamar took part in Exercise Bersama Shield with the Five Powers Defence Arrangements (FPDA) nations (UK, Singapore, Malaysia, New Zealand and Australia). This multi-national exercise which took place in Singapore and Malaysia included a range of exercises which demonstrated the interoperability and cooperative response of the five nations and their commitment to security in the region.
- In March Tamar joined the Royal Brunei Navy Warship KDB DARULEHSAW for a passage exercise off Brunei, highlighting the continuation of relationship building in the region.
Highlights from HMS Spey’s operations include the following:
- In January, the Ship came to the aid of the Tongan Government following the Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption and tsunami, delivering humanitarian supplies and supporting repair work to communications infrastructure.
- In February Spey deployed a medical team to deliver Covid booster vaccinations and dental treatment to the people of the Pitcairn Islands. The ship’s company also visited Fiji and Papua New Guinea, carrying out engagements with the military, government leaders and local communities.
- Spey has also worked with regional partners to carry out environmental and hydrographic surveys as well as water sampling, contributing to studies on climate change. One of the greenest ships in the Royal Navy, Spey also carried out important Marine Bio-diversity taskings.
- It has been an exciting time for the ship and crew where they have opened new relationships, strengthened others, delivered essential aid to countries in need and helped deter illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing. The ship has worked with a number of maritime forces in the region including; the US Coast Guard, US Navy, Royal Australian Navy, Royal New Zealand Navy, Republic of Fiji Navy, Royal Brunei Navy and Indonesian Navy.
Alongside the Royal Navy, the British Army and Royal Air Force regularly conduct exercises and operations with partners and allies, underlining the UK’s joint commitment to security and stability in the Indo-Asia Pacific.
QUOTES
Lieutenant Commander Matt Millyard, Tamar’s executive officer, said:
The 90m-long patrol vessel has a pivotal role in tackling shared security challenges and developing relationships; we’re not a carrier, we’re not a massive warship or an intimidating force, we’re here as a force for good and a force for peace.
Lieutenant Gareth Senior, HMS SPEY Marine Engineering Officer, said:
This deployment has seen us travel to some amazing places, interacting with a whole host of new cultures. It has been a privilege to work alongside local communities, government organisations and military forces in the Pacific; we have learned a lot from each other, and I look forward to building on those relationships and working with our close partners again in the near future.
British High Commissioner to Australia Vicki Treadell, said: “We’re delighted to welcome Tamar to Australian shores this week, and the chance for the crew to take a well deserved rest following a truly immense deployment across the region. The visit of HMS Tamar in Darwin, and HMS Spey’s deployment in the region, underlines our permanent naval presence across the Indo-Pacific and speaks to the UK’s ongoing commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific in which sovereign states of all sizes are free from coercion.”
SUMMARY
HMS Tamar is permanently deployed to the Indo-Pacific region alongside her sister ship HMS Spey. Working alongside partners and allies, the ship is helping tackle security challenges and support nations against the impacts of climate change. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
31 May 22. Iraq: Rocket attack underscores persistent threat to foreign assets amid deepening political instability. On 30 May, at least five rockets targeted the Ain Al Assad military base located in Iraq’s western Anbar province, causing no major damage or fatalities. Shortly after the incident, an Iran-backed militia named Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq (AAH) claimed responsibility for the attack on the Sabereen News Telegram channel. Ain Al Assad airbase is frequently targeted by local militia who continue to oppose the presence of US forces, with the recent strike underscoring the persistent threat to foreign forces and assets in Iraq. Recent developments come as Iraq’s political instability worsens, compounded by frustrated Iran-backed Shia blocs who continue to spoil government formation attempts after suffering heavy losses in October’s election. Therefore, failure to establish a majority will deepen the country’s volatile security environment and facilitate the expansion of militia, sustaining the physical threat for foreign personnel operating in-country and near military bases. (Source: Sibylline)
31 May 22. Canada: Freezing of national firearms market increases regulatory risks. On 30 May Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau presented new a firearms control bill that among other things would suspend the importing, buying, selling, or transfer of handguns in the country. Trudeau said the measures are necessary to stem rising firearm violence in Canada and to combat arms smuggling from the US. Under the ‘national freeze’ of the firearms market, only individuals and businesses currently authorised to own firearms will be exempt, but businesses will only be allowed to sell or transfer firearms to other businesses, with increased criminal penalties for violations of firearms legislation. Anyone importing ammunition will also be required to have a firearms licence while there will be limits on firearm magazine capacities. The measures also ban the importing, exporting, and sale of replica toy firearms. The bill is supported by the opposition New Democratic Party and is likely to be approved by Parliament before the end of the year, increasing regulatory risks for sectors ranging from sports retailers to the private security industry. (Source: Sibylline)
31 May 22. Iran: Stall In Nuclear Negotiations.
Key Takeaways
- Efforts to renew the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) will continue to stall in the coming one to three months, as Iran and Western allies fail to compromise on key sticking points. These include lifting the US designation of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) as a terrorist organisation and Iran’s nuclear enrichment programme.
- Maintenance of the status quo will sustain regional tensions in the form of tit-for-tat hostilities, as the continued implementation of unilateral economic sanctions will deepen Iran’s financial crisis and drive civil unrest.
- Alternatively, the best-case scenario will see members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), European Union (EU) and Iran ratify a deal in the coming months, which satisfies direct signatories but also regional players such as Saudi Arabia and Israel.
- Such an agreement will seek to minimise Iran’s support for proxy militia and address its role in regional insecurity, whilst establishing appropriate mechanisms to control the advancement of their nuclear weapons programme.
- If talks permanently collapse, there is a high likelihood that Israel and Iran’s “shadow war” will shift towards overt aggression, as we are already witnessing an increase in low-level cross-border assaults between Iran-backed proxies and Israel. Whilst Israel is unlikely to directly strike Iranian nuclear facilities in the near future, failure of the UNSC to limit Iran’s uranium enrichment program threatens to prompt Israeli security forces to prevent developments via military aggression.
- Iran’s IRGC will respond to rising domestic pressures by conducting hostile activities abroad, including strikes on critical infrastructure and cyber attacks to reap financial benefits. Historically, Iran has sought to target Israel and Saudi Arabia’s economic activity, however, collapsed talks might result in the IRGC widening their scope.
- Finally, failure to limit Tehran’s nuclear weapons programme will compound global insecurity and trigger a possible nuclear arms race in the Middle East, likely spearheaded by states such as Saudi Arabia and Turkey. (Source: Sibylline)
31 May 22. Asia Is Eager for Fighter Jets. While Taiwan is at the forefront of Chinese military maneuvers, many Southeast Asian states are facing China’s territorial assertiveness and military build-up. Beijing is not only catching up on its historical delay in maritime capabilities, but also developing highly sophisticated platforms such as its fifth-generation fighter, the J-20.
In this situation, the region is witnessing a general increase in defense budgets, with procurement programs for fighter jets being at the forefront of the budgetary effort. In July 2020, in the midst of a pandemic, the sale of 105 F-35s to Japan, worth $23.11bn, was approved by the US State Department, making it the biggest F-35 contract in history. Regional powers like South Korea and Australia have also topped up their existing fleets with new orders. And more countries are next in line.
Fleets of F-16 are being upgraded to the F-16V standard in Taiwan and Singapore, and a similar program could soon be launched in Indonesia. Jakarta also recently made headlines with a deal for 42 French Rafale – still to be officially budgeted – and the US State Department’s approval for a potential F-15 sale worth $14bn – still to be finalized.
Budgetary constraints limit smaller countries
Smaller countries have been faced with budgetary constraints, slowing down their procurement plans. Malaysia has been trying to replace its now retired fleet of MiG-29N for more than a decade, but suffers from budgetary constraints. The country however turned towards Light Combat Aircraft/Fighter Lead-In Trainer (LCA/FLIT) platforms with an ongoing tender for 18 jets, where competitors like Korean FA-50 Golden Eagle, Turkish Hurjet, Russian Mig-35 and Yak-130, Chinese L-15B Falcon, Indian Tejas Mk 1, and Italian M-346 are in the running.
But rather than giving a comprehensive list of all fighter jets modernization and procurement programs throughout Asia, one can look at the broader market prospects for the next few years to get a sense of the fighter jet momentum on the continent.
Market estimates point to growing needs
Boeing Defense, Space & Security recently forecast defense market opportunities worth $70bn over the next five years. Fighter jets will represent an important share of this amount.
Janes Defence Budgets anticipates that 32.4% of total defense procurement and R&D funding in Southeast Asia by 2028 will be spent on air forces. According to Janes Markets Forecast, the estimated total programme value for multirole combat aircraft (MRCA) acquisitions in Southeast Asia will reach $18.4bn between 2022 and 2031.
American and Russian fighters have long been favored by air forces in the region. According to the World Directory of Modern Military Aircraft, Indonesia’s fleet of multirole combat aircraft is composed of F-16s, Su-30s and Su-27s; Singapore’s has F-16s and F-15s, while Malaysia has Su-30s and F/A-18Ds, South Korea has F-16 and F-15 etc.
New regional offers are appearing
The latest developments on the Asian fighter jet market gave rise to a wider range of players, taking advantage of the trend towards diversification of military suppliers. New regional offers are emerging: for instance, the Malaysian tender for a new LCA saw India’s Tejas and, at one point, Pakistan’s JF-17 among the contenders (although the latter has finally been ruled out).
In 2008, Sweden’s Saab made a significant move by successfully placing six JAS-39 Gripen in Thailand. More recently, following a complicated acquisition process, Dassault finally delivered 36 of its Rafale flagship fighter to the Indian Air Force. Indeed, the French multirole fighter is gaining momentum in the region, with the Indonesian order for up to 42 Rafale placed earlier this year and potential future opportunities in the region, including the Malaysian future MRCA competition and the ongoing Indian Navy tender where it is pitted against Boeing’s Super Hornet.
For Boeing, boosted by the domestic F-15EX order book, the F-15 Eagle remains an option for regional powers who can afford it. Countries like Singapore, South Korea or Japan could be tempted to add some to their existing fleets if necessary, while former Su-30 users could see it as an attractive replacement or fail-over option. Finally, the European Eurofighter Typhoon is the only modern Western fighter that has not yet made it on the Asian market…
Russian offers are now suffering from the risk of US sanctions faced by potential buyers, as well as the dubious track record of their products in Ukraine – which ultimately gives a competitive edge to non-American players in countries eager to diversify their fleet.
Russian fighter jets are however still being sold, with recent orders of Su-30 from Malaysia. Rosoboronexport CEO A. Mikheyev claimed that five Asian countries had shown interest for the Su-57 jets while Vietnam and India have been identified as potential customers for the next-gen. Su-75 Checkmate.
Domestic production on the rise
Another trend in fighter jet procurement in Asia is the rise of domestic production. Out of Japan’s first batch of 42 F-35As, 38 are assembled locally by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries. The Indian Navy’s tender for 114 fighters is part of the “Make in India” policy, meaning the aircraft will have to be produced in the country. India who also intends to ramp-up domestic production of current and future fighters like HAL’s LCA- Mk1B and Mk2, Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA), as well as Twin Engine Deck-Based Fighter (TEDBF).
Other types of partnerships for instance include financial cross-participations, as in the case of the KFX/IFX Korean future stealth fighter, which was partly funded by Indonesia (20%), in view of the future procurement of 50 aircraft. Beyond such partnerships, Japan, South Korea and India are also developing their own fifth generation stealth fighter, often based on foreign technology transfer from strategic allies.
These ambitions, however, are often hampered by budgetary constraints.
Sophisticated aircraft are hardly affordable to smaller nations, who need to find funding schemes to support their acquisition programs. In the Rafale contract, several reports indicate that Indonesia benefited from guarantees from the French government that the country would obtain a loan from French banks. Granting this type of payment facility could be the key to securing new markets for manufacturers in the region. The US is also proposing such schemes under the Foreign Military Financing, but the latter requires case-by-case Congress approval, which makes it less reliable for buyers.
In 2016 for instance, the Congress rejected the US contribution to a $700mn deal with Pakistan for the sale of F-16C/D fighters.
Are used fighters an option?
To face funding shortfalls, some countries have turned towards second-hand opportunities. The Royal Malaysian Air Force has shown interest in acquiring second-hand F/A-18C/D jets from Kuwait, as its multimission combat aircraft procurement program remains stalled by budgetary constraints.
Procuring second-hand fighters has nevertheless not been so common so far in Asia. This type of acquisitions may also be part of upgrade programs.
In September 2021, the Indian Air Force signed a contract for the purchase of 24 phased-out Mirage 2000 fighters from France, as part of the upgrade of its existing fleet of the aircraft. Some of them will be scavenged to secure parts for the IAF’s two squadrons of the fighter.
Despite this budgetary pressure faced by many Asian countries, there is a real need for their Air Forces to modernize their fleets, fueled by an intense Chinese military activity often perceived as aggressive.
The Philippines, who have repeatedly been confronted by Chinese incursions in their airspace, need to move away from capabilities tailored for counter-insurgency missions towards equipment better suited to air defense. Flight Plan 2028 displayed important ambitions in this sense, but budgetary constraints remain.
Malaysia’s fleet of Su-30MKM is plagued by sustainment issues, and Vietnam also urgently needs to modernize its air combat capabilities as its current fleet can only provide limited air superiority. The overall picture is thus unequivocal for fighter jet makers, who will undoubtedly be looking eastwards more often in the coming years. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/)
30 May 22. Lebanon: Speaker Vote.
EVENT
On 31 May, tomorrow, human-source intelligence confirms planned celebrations amongst Lebanese Shia after the expected re-election of Parliament Speaker and Shia politician Nabih Berri. Celebrations are expected to include the use of gunfire, and are scheduled despite Berri calling for individuals to abstain from “firing in the air”, instead asking residents to protect properties and “strengthen civil peace”.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Berri’s re-election underpins Lebanon’s elitist and outdated political system, with the Shia politician having held the role since 1992. Despite heavy losses by Shia political parties in the 15 May elections, such as Hizballah and Berri’s Amal Movement, his ability to run uncontested due to the post being reserved for a Shia candidate, is a consequence of Lebanon’s ineffective sectarian system. Ultimately, it allows for enduring patronage networks to prevail, reducing the likelihood that the May polls will deliver any meaningful change to the status quo.
- Previous incidents of celebratory gunfire have resulted in significant injuries and fatalities, with UNICEF reporting on recent occasions where children have been implicated in the use of open gunfire in the streets. The report was published on 17 May in the aftermath of the parliamentary election, further calling upon the government to legally ban the tradition and implement greater child protection mechanisms.
- Despite Berri’s calls to refrain from the armed celebrations, supporters of the Shia parties will utilise his re-election as an opportunity to contest the final results of May’s poll, and re-establish control in disputed areas such as Tripoli and southern Lebanon where they suffered losses. Amid Lebanon’s worsening socio-economic crisis, the sustained risk of civil unrest and violent confrontations highlights enduring sectarian feuds and the fragmented political landscape ahead of presidential elections in October.
FORECAST
Several political parties, such as the Lebanese Forces and more than a dozen independents and reformists, have declared their intent to not vote for the re-election of Berri for a seventh term as parliamentary speaker. However, numbers in Lebanon’s increasingly fragmented post-electoral parliamentary system are unlikely to be sufficient to oust Berri from power. Moreover, Berri is unlikely to propose an alternative Shia representative amid likely strong support from Shia factions, notably allies Hizbollah and the Amal Movement, as their only candidate.
Celebratory gunfire will particularly increase bystander risks for personnel operating in the vicinity of Shia neighbourhoods in Beirut, the southern Zahrani area and the Riyaq and Baalbek cities in the eastern Beqaa Governorate. In addition, stray bullets will present risks of damage to critical infrastructure and company assets. Heightened ethno-sectarian tensions in the coming days could drive confrontations between groups, which may turn violent with little notice.
Meanwhile, Berri’s re-election will likely be subject to challenge from opponents and viewed as indicative of the continued dominance of Hizbollah and entrenched, corrupt political elites in Lebanon’s political system. As such, overland mobility and supply chain operations will remain vulnerable to disruptions generated by clashes and protests in mixed-Shia or Shia majority neighbourhoods. (Source: Sibylline)
30 May 22. Tight SA defence budget will not affect deployments – CSANDF. National Ceremonial Guard at de Brug for the International Day of UN Peacekeepers commemoration.
The officer in overall charge of personnel in the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) and the force chief are in agreement deployments will continue – externally and internally – notwithstanding another tight budget announced last week.
Delivering her budget vote address to the National Assembly, Defence and Military Veterans Minister Thandi Modise asked parliamentarians to approve R49.09 bn for the SANDF and other entities residing in her portfolio. This, a recent presentation to Parliament’s Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV) heard, is a R26 bn underfunding.
Speaking at a SANDF Human Resources Division communication period last week, Vice Admiral Asiel Kubu referred to Modise’s budget vote speech saying she was “clear” the amount allocated was “not enough to carry out the mandate (of the national defence force)”.
The senior human resources officer is reported by a Lieutenant Msibi of Human Resource Corporate Communication as saying the Department of Defence (DoD) faced “constraints” but these would not affect operational deployments.
“The deployment in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Mozambique will continue on a bigger scale. The guarding of our borders will also be carried out,” he is reported as telling the Human Resource Division communication period at the Pretoria Military Sports Club.
His views were echoed by SANDF Chief General Rudzani Maphwanya. Speaking on Sunday at the SA Army’s De Brug mobilisation centre during a commemorative event to honour South African peacekeepers, the SABC has him saying South Africa’s and the SANDF’s contribution to peace missions is “paramount”. This is despite “resources not being enough”.
The government broadcaster reports further the SANDF continues to “enforce peace” in northern Mozambique where “conflict persists and threatens stability of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) region”.
“Peace in Mozambique will also benefit the region. When we contain the problem there for it not to permeate and trouble you. People will go about their daily lives, but if we sit back that problem will affect us,” SABC editorial staffer Aphumelele Mdlalane reported.
Support for Maphwanya came from Deputy Defence and Military Veterans Minister, Thabang Makwetla. Also at De Brug he is reported saying: “The success of our involvement in Mozambique will not only be military. Our deployment is peace enforcement and it is our desire that the military intervention will bring about stability”. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
27 May 22. Japan to enable fighter jet and missile exports to 12 nations.
India, Australia, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Philippines among destinations. The Japanese government plans to allow exports of fighter jets, missiles and other arms to 12 countries, including India, Australia as well as some European and Southeast Asian nations, Nikkei has learned. Regulatory changes to allow for the exports could come by next March.
The government aims to enhance deterrence against China by cooperating with countries that have signed individual security agreements with Tokyo.
These countries include Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, the U.S., the U.K., Germany, France and Italy.
In 2014, Japan established a principle regarding transfers of defense equipment and eased regulations that had prohibited its export. However, it still bans exports of lethal weapons.
The principle states that exports to countries that do not jointly develop arms with Japan are limited to equipment for rescue, transport, warning, surveillance and minesweeping missions.
However, the easing will be included in the government’s policy on economic and fiscal management and reform, to be finalized in June. The principles will be revised after a National Security Strategy is formulated, which is scheduled to take place at the end of this year.
Japan is planning to develop new fighter jets and medium-range anti-aircraft missiles with the U.S. and the U.K.
Export customers will allow Japan’s manufacturers to lower their production costs. This will also lower the Japanese government’s procurement costs and lighten its financial burden.
Since Russia invaded Ukraine in February, Asia’s security environment has been growing increasingly severe. Government officials hope the spread of Japanese-made equipment to neighboring countries will deepen the country’s security cooperation with likeminded countries.
Like Japan, Australia, India and some nations in Southeast Asia are wary of China’s expanding military footprint. Japan intends to strengthen bonds with these countries by offering them arms that allow them to assume a stronger defensive posture.
After revising relevant policies, Japan has its sights set on exporting fighters and new sea-launched interceptor missiles. Southeast Asian countries are willing to buy low-priced fighters, and the U.S. and Europe are also marketing to the region to prevent the spread of Chinese-made fighter jets.
The Japanese government also plans to export equipment such as bulletproof vests and helmets to countries with which it does not sign individual security agreements. Tokyo has already provided these items to Ukraine.
Tokyo exported a warning and control radar to the Philippines under the only defense export contract since 2014, when the government eased regulations that had forbidden such sales.
Without measures to promote exports, Japan’s shrinking defense industry could run into difficulties procuring parts for arms.
Still, concerns remain as Japan-made military equipment could be used in international conflicts. The government intends to frame the export plan by explaining that it is consistent with the constitution and related laws. (Source: https://asia.nikkei.com/)
27 May 22. Pakistan: New voting legislation and fuel price hike will sustain risk of domestic unrest. On 26 May, the Shehbaz Sharif government passed a law disenfranchising overseas Pakistani nationals from voting in general elections. On the same day, the government also reluctantly hiked the cost of petroleum products to secure a much-needed IMF loan. The decisions have been severely criticised by Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) Chairman Imran Khan who is using the new legislation to create public dissent that will strengthen his anti-government campaign. As Khan also has a strong following among the Pakistani diaspora, small-scale demonstrations in places such as London and Canada against the government’s decision are possible. Further, manufacturers have raised the alarm over the additional cost of fuel as it will hike production costs, making Pakistan’s products less competitive in the international market. The new legislation coupled with the state of the economy will assist Khan’s anti-government campaign, sustaining risk of domestic unrest and government stability. (Source: Sibylline)
27 May 22. Canada: Police kill armed man in Toronto amid growing concern over copycat armed attacks. On 26 May Toronto police reported that officers had shot and killed a man in the Scarborough area amid suspicions that he was planning to carry out an armed attack in the area. Toronto Police Chief James Ramer said officers responded to reports of a man carrying a rifle in the area. When they found him, officers were confronted by the man, and he was shot dead. Ramer said the incident is under investigation and refrained from linking it to the recent mass shootings in the US, but the fact the gunman was intercepted 130 metres from a local school raises suspicion that his intention may have been to replicate the shooting in Uvalde, Texas (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update- 25 May 2022). The incident also comes after Canadian officials warned that the racially motivated 15 May shooting in Buffalo, New York, could inspire similar attacks in Canada, heightening concerns about physical risks to staff. (Source: Sibylline)
27 May 22. Japan to ‘drastically strengthen’ military capability. Japan aims to “drastically strengthen” its military capabilities, according to an economic policy draft seen by Reuters, as officials worry that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could prompt instability in East Asia.
Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, meeting U.S. President Joe Biden on Monday, pledged to “substantially increase” Japan’s defence budget.
The draft, a long-term economic outline that is updated annually, does not gives details about spending, but says for the first time: “There have been attempts to unilaterally change the status quo by force in East Asia, making regional security increasingly severe.”
It also does not specify security threats in the region, but Japan’s military planners have expressed repeated concern about China, with which Japan has a long-running territorial dispute, and North Korea.
Kishida’s news conference with Biden was dominated by the president saying the United States would be willing to use force to defend Taiwan from Chinese aggression.
“We will drastically strengthen defence capabilities that will be the ultimate collateral to secure national security,” the draft document says.
Former prime minister Shinzo Abe called on Thursday for defence spending of nearly 7trn yen ($60bn) for next fiscal year, up from 5.4trn yen under this year’s initial budget, in light of China’s growing military spending and missile threats from North Korea, Nippon Television Network reported.
“It’s natural (for the government) to secure defence spending equivalent of 2% of GDP,” Abe, who still wields considerable clout as head of the biggest faction in the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, was quoted as saying.
Kishida has not said how much he wants to boost military spending for the fiscal year starting in April 2023.
Higher defence spending will strain Japan’s already dire public finances.
“There’s no end to spending pressure,” said Takuya Hoshino, senior economist at Dai-ichi Life Research Institute.
The lower house of parliament on Friday approved an extra budget worth 2.7trn yen, funded by bond sales, to cushion the blow to households and firms from rising fuel and raw material costs. The upper house is expected to enact the budget into law next week.
With Kishida facing a national election in July, another supplementary budget “is almost a done deal”, Hoshino said. “The question is how to secure funding, other than having to rely on ultra-low borrowing costs provided by the Bank of Japan.” ($1 = 126.9800 yen) (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
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