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05 May 22. U.S., South Korean Defense Leaders Condemn North Korean Missile Launch. The North Koreans yesterday launched another ballistic missile over the waters to its east, alarming South Korea, Japan and the United States.
The launch is the 14th this year and is part of an effort by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to speed up development of it’s own nuclear capability so it can hold at risk those it perceives as adversaries.
During a press briefing today, Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby told reporters that this morning, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III talked with Republic of Korea Minister of National Defense Suh Wook via telephone to discuss both the missile launch and other defense issues.
“The two leaders strongly condemned yesterday’s ballistic missile launched by the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea, which they noted threatens the peace and stability of the Korean peninsula and the Indo-Pacific region,” Kirby said. “They committed to close cooperation to enhance the U.S./ROK alliance, deterrence and defense posture.”
Kirby also said Austin reaffirmed the ironclad commitment the U.S. has to the defense of the South Korea, which leverages the full range of U.S. military capabilities, to include “extended deterrent capabilities.”
Next week, on May 10, Yoon Suk-yeol will assume the role of president of South Korea from incumbent Moon Jae-in. As a result of the change in administration, Suh will leave his position as minister of national defense — a position he’s held since September 2020.
“The secretary also congratulated the minister on his successful tenure as Minister of National Defense, noting that the alliance had in fact been strengthened under Suh’s leadership,” Kirby said.
According to a press release from U.S. Forces Korea, Suh had served previously as ROK Army chief of staff, chief director of operations for the ROK Joint Chiefs of Staff, and commanding general of First Corps and 25th Infantry Division. (Source: US DoD)
05 May 22. Mali: Breaking of French defence accords will elevate threats of jihadist expansion. On 2 May, the ruling junta announced the termination of defence accords with France, claiming the country had violated Mali’s national sovereignty. The decision follows the junta’s accusations that the French army spied on its forces after a drone recorded Russian mercenary group Wagner burying bodies at Gossi base on 20 April, shortly after French troops had withdrawn. After Paris announced its decision to withdraw its counter-insurgency mission from Mali in February, French forces declared that they would continue to provide aerial support to Malian troops. However, the breaking of defence accords will likely further challenge or impede the provision of air assistance. The loss of advanced airstrike and rapid response capabilities will enable jihadists to assemble significant forces to conduct attacks on harder targets, without risking the destruction of these larger formations. This will elevate threats to military bases and civilian infrastructure and allow for jihadist expansion in the south, elevating threats to coastal states. (Source: Sibylline)
05 May 22. Taiwan says it cannot afford new U.S. anti-submarine helicopters. Taiwan signalled on Thursday that it had abandoned a plan to buy advanced new anti-submarine warfare helicopters from the United States, saying they were too expensive. Taiwan had earlier said it was planning to buy 12 MH-60R anti-submarine helicopters, made by Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) unit Sikorsky, but domestic media said the United States had rejected the sale as not being in line with the island’s needs. Asked in parliament about recent changes to Taiwan’s purchases of new U.S. weapons, Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng mentioned the helicopter case first.
“The price is too high, beyond the scope of our country’s ability,” he said.
Two other arms purchases have also been delayed – M109A6 Medium Self-Propelled Howitzer artillery systems, and mobile Stinger anti-aircraft missiles.
The Raytheon Technologies’ (RTX.N) Stingers are in hot demand in Ukraine, where they have been used against Russian aircraft, but U.S. supplies have shrunk and there are significant hurdles to producing more of the anti-aircraft weapons.
Chiu said they had already signed the contract for the Stingers and paid for them, and they would press the United States to deliver them.
“We don’t view arms sales as a trifling matter, and we have back-up plans,” he added, without elaborating.
Taiwan says the United States has offered it alternatives to the M109A6, including truck-based rocket launchers made by Lockheed Martin called the High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS.
Chiu said they were still considering their options on that.
Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, is undertaking a military modernisation programme to improve its capabilities to fend off a Chinese attack, including with precision weapons like missiles.
President Tsai Ing-wen has championed the concept of “asymmetric warfare”, which involves developing high-tech, highly mobile weapons that are hard to destroy and can deliver precision attacks.
U.S. officials have been pushing Taiwan to modernise its military so it can become a “porcupine”, hard for China to attack.
China has been ramping up its own military modernisation and pressure against Taiwan as it seeks to force the democratically governed island to accept Beijing’s rule.
Chiu said the recently – he did not give a timeframe – there were many “enemy ships” in the waters around Taiwan, which “in principle stand off” with Taiwanese forces, though he did not give details.
Eight Chinese naval vessels, including the aircraft carrier the Liaoning, passed between islands in Japan’s southern Okinawa chain on Monday, an area that is to Taiwan’s northeast. (Source: Reuters)
05 May 22. UK and Japan set to rapidly accelerate defence and security ties with landmark agreement. Prime Minister Boris Johnson will host Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in London today.
- PM will host Japanese leader Fumio Kishida in London today as an RAF fly-past marks his first Guest of Government visit to the UK.
- Leaders expected to agree in principle a landmark new defence agreement to deepen military ties in the Indo-Pacific.
- UK and Japan expected to agree joint action to help key economies reduce reliance on Russian energy supplies.
- Meeting will boost trade links as PM announces new trade envoy to Japan and plans to lifts remaining restrictions on food produce from Fukushima.
The Prime Minister will host his Japanese counterpart today to deepen the UK’s relationship with our closest Asian security partner, and rapidly accelerate collaboration across defence, trade and green energy.
The leaders will agree in principle a Reciprocal Access Agreement, allowing Japanese and British forces to work, exercise and operate together, boosting the UK’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific and further safeguarding global peace and security. The UK will be the first European country to have such an agreement with Japan.
The landmark defence partnership, which will see UK and Japanese Armed Forces deploy together to carry out training, joint exercises and disaster relief activities, will build on our already close collaboration on defence and security technology, such as the Future Combat Air System programme.
Symbolic of the UK and Japan’s close ties, the leaders will observe a Royal Air Force fly past and inspect a Guard of Honour as part of the official welcome to the United Kingdom for Prime Minister Kishida. Prime Minister Boris Johnson said:
As two great island democracies, and the third and fifth largest economies in the world, the UK and Japan are focussed on driving growth, creating highly skilled jobs and ensuring we remain technology superpowers.
The visit of Prime Minister Kishida will accelerate our close defence relationship and build on our trade partnership to boost major infrastructure projects across the country – supporting our levelling up agenda.
As two G7 leaders and each other’s closest security partners in Asia and Europe respectively, tomorrow’s bilateral meetings are expected to focus on Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine, and how international alliances can continue to exert maximum pressure on President Putin’s regime while supporting Ukraine and other European countries affected by the barbaric invasion.
They are also expected to agree closer collaboration as part of the UK’s Clean Green Initiative, allowing the UK and Japan to work together to support countries in Asia develop renewables, supporting their transition to green energy and helping to provide alternative supplies to Russian oil and gas.
Deepening trade and investment ties, the Prime Minister will also announce a new trade envoy to Japan – accelerating the strong trade and investment relationship between the two countries.
Greg Clark MP has been chosen to spearhead the next chapter between the UK and Japan, as Japanese companies invest bns of pounds into the UK economy through major infrastructure projects, including windfarms and high speed rail. The announcement comes as the UK negotiates accession to CPTPP, an Indo-Pacific trade block worth $11trn. Japan is chair of the UK accession working group to CPTPP.
During the meeting at Downing Street, the leaders are expected to enjoy food products from the Fukushima region, including Japanese popcorn, as part of the marking the lifting of remaining restrictions on food products from the Japanese region. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
04 May 22. U.S., Kenyan Officials Assess Military Relationship. U.S. and Kenyan defense officials met at the Pentagon today to strengthen the bilateral relationship between the countries and look for new ways to increase defense cooperation.
Celeste Wallander, assistant secretary of defense for international affairs, met with Kenya Cabinet Secretary of Defense Eugene L. Wamalwa and Kenya Army Gen. Robert K. Kibochi, the chief of the Kenya defense forces, for the U.S.-Kenya Bilateral Defense Forum in the Pentagon, today.
The talks reaffirmed the two countries’ commitment to strengthening bilateral defense cooperation between the Defense Department and the Kenya Ministry of Defense and Kenya Defense Forces, officials said at the conclusion of the meeting.
The two sides discussed a range of topics, including regional security, cybersecurity and security cooperation as well as the mission of U.S. Africa Command and status of the partnership program between Kenya and the Massachusetts National Guard.
U.S. military forces have worked closely with Kenyan forces for years. Kenya was a member of the African Union Mission in Somalia and now works there in the new African Union Transition Mission. U.S. personnel served as advisers to the mission in Somalia and helped with logistics and communications for the peacekeeping force.
Kenyan service members have participated in many U.S. Africa Command exercises and served alongside American troops in U.N. operations.
Kenyan officials were among those in attendance at the Ukraine Security Consultative Group meeting at Ramstein Air Base in Germany — one of four African nations to attend the meeting of more than 40 nations.
U.S. and Kenya defense officials intend to continue a strong partnership going forward, including the next iteration of the U.S.-Kenya Bilateral Defense Forum, officials said in a written release. (Source: US DoD)
04 May 22. SA Department of Defence underfunded by 50%. With a budget of R49bn for the current financial year, the Department of Defence (DoD) is underfunded by 50%, as its full cost funding requirement is R75bn, and this shortfall poses a multitude of risks to the functioning of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF).
The Portfolio Committee on Defence and Military Veterans (PCDMV) on Wednesday heard that the DoD is underfunded by R26.5bn, and over the next few years the situation will not improve, as the defence budget for 2023/24 will drop to R47.959bn before increasing slightly in 2024/25 to R49.277bn.
According to the DoD’s 2022 Annual Performance Plan (APP), the Administrative Programme of the DoD in 2022/23 is allocated R5.7bn but requires R7.2bn and the R1.5bn shortfall “will continue placing constraints on the availability of appropriate human resources, organisational structures and ICT support.”
The Force Employment Programme is suffering a R1.6bn shortfall (R3.7 bn allocated versus R5.3bn required), which “will adversely impact on the ability of the Programme to provide mission-ready forces and special operational capabilities to meet the SA Defence Review 2015 and National Government requirements/obligations in participation and support to external and internal deployments, as well as participation in multinational exercises with identified stakeholders.
“The limited budget allocated may adversely impact on the ability of the SANDF to ensure the required levels of operational serviceability of main equipment and facilities deployed during internal, support to the C SANDF and other Departments during humanitarian and disaster relief, search and rescue operations and external operations in support of the UN and AU peacekeeping operations,” the PCDMV heard.
The Landward Defence Programme faces an R11.3bn shortfall (R15.5bn allocated), which, according to the Annual Performance Plan, will adversely impact on the preparation and provision of combat-ready landward capabilities and the renewal and maintenance of combat-ready operational capabilities within the SA Army in support of force employment requirements.
Similarly, the R2.8bn shortfall for Air Defence (R6.2bn allocated) “will adversely impact on the preparation and provision of combat-ready air defence capabilities, maintenance backlog, maintenance of capabilities and aviation safety within the Programme. Due to the budget reduction, the Air Defence Programme will reduce the number of learners on military development courses for the FY2022/23,” the APP stated. In 2021/22, the South African Air Force flew 17 100 hours, but the allocation for the next three years drops to 12 000 a year.
Maritime Defence is underfunded by R2.9bn (R4.6bn allocated), which will adversely impact on the preparation and provision of combat-ready maritime defence capabilities, constraining the ability of the SA Navy to deploy naval capabilities to meet deployment requirements of the Maritime Security Strategy.
“Owing to budget constraints, the SA Navy will not be able to up-scale the Naval Station Durban to a fully functioning operational Naval Base,” the PCDMV heard, and the financial allocation shortfall “will have an impact on the ability of the SA Navy to honour its international hydrographic obligations.”
Military Health Support is also affected, with R5.5bn allocated in 2022 versus R9 bn required, affecting the SA Military Health Service’s ability to meet staff requirements, replace obsolete equipment, upgrade deteriorating facilities and renew required technology.
“Furthermore, the budget reduction impacts negatively on the SAMHS’s ability to meet the legal requirements for accreditation of medical personnel at health training institutions and at the South African Nursing College,” the presentation to the PCDMV stated.
Defence Intelligence needs another R175 m (R1.15 bn allocated), affecting intelligence gathering and counter-intelligence operations, while General Support needs another R1.6bn (R6.5bn allocated) to maintain DoD facilities and staff the Defence Works Formation. The Military Police in 2022/23 is allocated R719m but requires R1.1bn.
As pointed out to the National Treasury in August last year, some of the broad implications of the declining DoD budget allocation include:
Non-implementation of the SA Defence Review 2015;
Non-compliance with the National Security Strategy (NSS) Border Safeguarding requirement for 22 sub-units and the establishment of a Cyber Warfare Capability (15 sub-units, or companies, are currently deployed on the borders);
Inability to modernize and sustain prime-mission equipment to meet the current and future security requirements of South Africa;
Inability to maintain and refurbish defence facilities resulting in further the deterioration of facilities;
Reduction/cancellation of formal training courses and joint interdepartmental, agency and multi-national exercises, adversely impacting on the safety of troops during deployments and combat readiness;
Inability to maintain set stock levels (ammunition, spares, rations, pharmaceuticals and medical consumables);
Reduction of the Special Defence Account (SDA), leading to a potential loss of the sovereign defence industry and litigation on projects that have been contracted. In the future, the DoD may be required to make use of external defence industries at a huge cost. In a situation of war or external aggression, South Africa will not have its own Defence industry for weapon, prime-mission equipment and ammunition modernization and manufacturing. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
04 May 22. Mali: Breaking of French defence accords will elevate threats of jihadist expansion. On 2 May, the ruling junta announced the termination of defence accords with France, claiming the country had violated Mali’s national sovereignty. The decision follows the junta’s accusations that the French army spied on its forces after a drone recorded Russian mercenary group Wagner burying bodies at Gossi base on 20 April, shortly after French troops had withdrawn. After Paris announced its decision to withdraw its counter-insurgency mission from Mali in February, French forces declared that they would continue to provide aerial support to Malian troops. However, the breaking of defence accords will likely further challenge or impede the provision of air assistance. The loss of advanced airstrike and rapid response capabilities will enable jihadists to assemble significant forces to conduct attacks on harder targets, without risking the destruction of these larger formations. This will elevate threats to military bases and civilian infrastructure and allow for jihadist expansion in the south, elevating threats to coastal states.
04 May 22. South Africa: Stage 2 load shedding will cause disruptions to business operations. On 3 May, the national energy utility Eskom implemented Stage 2 load shedding – the removal of 2,000 megawatts from the national grid through nationwide scheduled power cuts – until 05:00 on 9 May. The cuts were prompted by a loss of generating capacity caused by delays in servicing generators as well as the recent breakdowns of nine generators in the country. Under Stage two load shedding, power cuts will be implemented twice a day for around two hours at a time, causing considerable disruptions to business operations and communications. Threats will be elevated to industries where staff work remotely, as well as to major manufacturers whose production relies on consistent energy supplies, likely causing supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, delays in returning units to service will elevate the risk of Eskom implementing Stage 3 load shedding, with further power outages heightening disruptions to businesses across the country.
04 May 22. Sri Lanka: Elevated threat of violent unrest as opposition issues no-confidence motions and parliament convenes. On 3 May, the Sri Lankan opposition submitted two no-confidence motions (NCM), one against the government and another against the President. Just hours after the NCM was raised against his cabinet, PM Mahinda Rajapaksa said he was confident of holding the majority in the house. Political parties represented in parliament remain divided on their position with some refusing to reveal their voting intention, with others stating they will not vote against the government unless the opposition had a clear roadmap for what would happen after such a vote. Others remain loyal to the President but not the Prime Minister while some, like the protesters, demand the removal of all Rajapaksa family members from the government. The opposition’s ability to win such any NCM vote remains unclear given their weak position in the parliament holding only 54 votes in the 225-member assembly. Other than elevated government stability risks, the threat of clashes outside parliament between protesters and police is likely for the next two weeks. (Source: Sibylline)
04 May 22. Philippines: Upcoming election will see heavy security presence as risk of politically motivated violence rises. On 4 May, the Commission on Elections (Comelec) placed two more areas, Misamis Occidental province and Pilar Pown, Abra, under Comelec control to increase security to ensure an “orderly election”. This follows Comelec putting eight areas in the southern region of Mindanao under their control last week, with the emergency powers allowing the election body to supervise officials and employees in the area in response to the heightened risk of politically-motivated violence. Around 40,000 police and 40,000 members of the Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) are expected to be deployed ahead of the 9 May general and presidential election, with the areas in the restive south most at risk of violence perpetrated by active militant groups. As well as the election, security is to be heightened around final rallies held by candidates in urban areas, with localised disruptions likely as participation can reach thousands. (Source: Sibylline)
04 May 22. North Korea: Latest missile launch underlines Pyongyang’s continued provocation before hardliner assuming presidential office in Seoul. On 4 May, North Korea launched a ballistic missile towards the Sea of Japan. With a range of around 500km and an altitude of up to 800km, the projectile appears to be a short-range missile. The launch likely acts as a ‘warning message’ to the incoming South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol ahead of his inauguration on 10 May. Yoon advocates a tougher stance on North Korea than the outgoing President Moon Jae-in. Yoon has said that a peace treaty could only be agreed if Pyongyang commits to denuclearisation, while pledging to strengthen South Korea’s military capabilities. North Korea’s latest provocation fits the current pattern of a string of missile tests, as Pyongyang ramps up rhetoric against the US and South Korea, especially with Seoul’s new administration in mind (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 29 April 2022). While further missile or nuclear activities are likely in the coming weeks, business operations will remain largely unaffected. (Source: Sibylline)
03 May 22. Philippines: Marcos Victory Effects.
Executive Summary
- On 9 May, voters in the Philippines will decide who will replace the controversial Rodrigo Duterte as the country’s president for the next six years. Polls suggest that Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is the strong favourite, while his closest challenger is the current Vice President Leni Robredo, who has been gaining momentum in recent weeks as the election campaign reaches its end.
- Marcos Jr., the son of the former dictator of the same name, represents a degree of continuity from Duterte. He has indicated that he will continue with Duterte’s brutal ‘war on drugs’ that has led to widespread extrajudicial killings, while he is also likely to continue to make use of ‘red-tagging’ to undermine political opponents at the expense of creating an often-hostile operating environment for NGOs, activists, and journalists.
- An inadequate system of governance has undermined the Philippines’ efforts to maximise the foreign investment it receives, with Robredo offering the best chance of tackling corruption and improving transparency. Given Marcos Jr’s extensive family wealth, which is largely believed to be hidden around the world to avoid being recovered by the authorities, the chances of governance significantly improving under his stewardship are slim.
- In terms of security, the main candidates have not indicated that they will fundamentally change the strategies being used by security forces to successfully contain militant threats from the New People’s Army (NPA) and Islamist groups in southern Mindanao. Furthermore, Marcos Jr. has suggested that he will resolve the South China Sea dispute in a bilateral manner with Beijing. (Source: Sibylline)
03 May 22. No light at the end of the SANDF funding tunnel. That the SA National Defence Force (SANDF) does not receive sufficient funding is widely known and at least two Parliamentarians have asked Defence Minister Thandi Modise for information on the defence budget as well as returning the force to “competitive” status.
In a written question to the Minister, EFF (Economic Freedom Fighters) MP Tseko Mafanya asked, in view of “ageing and outdated military hardware” if there are immediate, short or long term objectives to return the SANDF to “desired standards” and ensure it is a competitive force able to execute its mandate.
The Gauteng-based parliamentarian was informed “South Africa’s fiscal position hardly allows implementation of the Defence Review 2015 at its level of ambition”.
If implementation did happen, Minister Modise sees “beyond doubt” the SANDF would have the “gravitas” needed to be “unchallenged” in the African battlespace. This could occur if and when development funding, via the Special Defence Account (SDA), is resumed. Modise also tells Mafanya when this happens it “would allow” research and development. SCAMP (Strategic Capital Acquisition Master Plan) funding “would at least allow continued basic maintenance and funding of the upgrade”.
Mafanya was further informed that the SANDF force development plan was the “next deliverable” and presently under development by South Africa’s military policy strategy and planning “practitioners”.
“Capability development will be prioritised in the current baseline until the resource situation improves.”
Democratic Alliance (DA) shadow defence and military veterans minister Kobus Marais raised similar issues when asking Modise about progress on “engagements” with National Treasury for more money.
Has Cabinet decided how the defence budget challenges and deficit will be addressed, he wanted to know from the Defence and Military Veterans Minister.
Her written response was a zero in terms of answers saying only “engagements on the budget deficit are ongoing and at present there are no new developments to report”. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
03 May 22. Taiwan flags risk of Stinger missile delays, says pressing U.S. Taiwan’s Defence Ministry on Tuesday said deliveries of shoulder-fired Stinger anti-aircraft missiles could be delayed, saying they were pressing the United States to deliver on schedule as the war in Ukraine pressures supplies. The missiles are in hot demand in Ukraine, where they have successfully kept Russian aircraft at bay, but U.S. supplies have shrunk and producing more of the anti-aircraft weapons faces significant hurdles.
The United States approved the sale of 250 of Raytheon Technologies’ Stinger missiles to Taiwan in 2019. Taiwanese media has reported Taiwan expected to complete delivery by 2026.
Chu Wen-wu, deputy head of Taiwan’s army planning department, said those deliveries may get held up.
“It is true that due to changes in the international situation, there may be a risk of delayed delivery this year of the portable Stinger missiles,” he told a news conference. “The Army will coordinate with the full procurement plan and continue to require the U.S. military to implement it normally in accordance with the contract.”
Ministry spokesman Sun Li-fang added that procurement of General Dynamics Corp M1A2 Abrams tanks was “normal” – Taiwan plans to buy 108 of them with delivery by 2027.
Taiwan’s air force is also in touch with the United States to ensure that deliveries of new F-16 fighter jets take place on schedule before 2026, he said.
This is the second time this week the ministry has warned of delayed deliveries of U.S. weapons.
It said on Monday it was considering alternative weapons options after the United States informed it that the delivery of an artillery system would be delayed due to a “crowded” production line.
Taiwan, claimed by China as its own territory, is undertaking a military modernisation programme to improve its capabilities to fend off a Chinese attack, including with precision weapons like missiles.
U.S. officials have been pushing Taiwan to modernise its military so it can become a “porcupine”, hard for China to attack. (Source: Google/Reuters)
30 Apr 22. Sri Lanka: Unrest Warning. On 30 April, the US Embassy in Colombo, Sri Lanka issued an advisory warning for several large-scale demonstrations due to take place on Sunday, 1 May, across Colombo in protest against worsening socio-economic conditions in Sri Lanka (see Sibylline Alert 14 April 2022 for more details).
SIGNIFICANCE
- The warning follows Sri Lanka’s first general nationwide strike in almost four decades on 28 April, which attracted ms of Sri Lankan workers and saw massive disruption to business, public transportation and the banking system, with approximately 1,000 trade unions joining the strike.
- Tomorrow’s protests are expected to draw 40,000 participants at the lowest estimate, although a figure between 50,000-100,000 remains possible. Significant disruption to public transport in Colombo is likely, and the risk of violent clashes with security forces is moderate.
- The protesters are expected to join pre-existing protest camps in front of the Sri Lankan president’s office in Colombo to call for the sitting Rajapaksa government’s removal, further heightening the risk of domestic unrest and government instability.
- Sri Lanka presently does not have sufficient foreign currency reserves to import fuel, essential foodstuffs and medical supplies after the Covid-19 pandemic, compounded by the rise in oil prices due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. As a result, poor socio-economic health is likely to worsen. Help from the IMF and India I sbeing negotiated or on its way, but is unlikely to ease the situation in the short term.
FORECAST
Sri Lanka’s trade unions have threatened to implement a much longer general strike from 6 May 2022 if the current president, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, does not step down from his post and the government does not resign. Several protest groups have given interviews with international media outlets, notably Al Jazeera, stating they expect violent clashes with security forces to arise. As a result, we assess that the risk of violent unrest will remain elevated in Sri Lanka across the coming week, and that governmental instability is likely to arise as a result, particularly if the Sri Lankan security forces attempt to crack down on the protests by force. (Source: Sibylline)
30 Apr 22. Ecuador: Curfew And State Of Emergency. On 30 April, Ecuadorean President Guillermo Lasso announced via Twitter that a state of emergency has been declared for two months in the three western provinces of Guayas, Manabí and Esmeraldas in response to a significant increase in violent gang-related crime in recent weeks. The state of emergency will be supported by a night-time curfew in these provinces between 2300-0500 local time, and the deployment of approximately 4,000 police officers and up to 5,000 members of the Ecuadorean Armed Forces to suppress criminal activity.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Ecuador’s status as a transit route for cocaine trafficking from Peru and Colombia exposes it to substantially risk more generally from international Organised Crime Group (OCG) activity and low-level violent crime from smaller regional gangs. However, a sharp rise in murders and violent attacks in recent months, including several high-profile murders in February in Duran, near the port city of Guayaquil in the Guayas province, indicate a generally heightened level of OCG activity. To date, over 1,200 people are thought to have been killed in drug-related violence since the start of 2022, according to official Ecuadorean figures. Ecuador saw the fastest growth in homicide rates in the region during 2021.
- Two execution-style killings in February – involving handcuffing and hanging the victims from a pedestrian bridge in Duran – show hallmarks of methodology employed by specific Mexican drug cartels, further highlighting the growing risk of violent crime in Ecuador and the influx of foreign OCGs.
- Lasso’s declaration of a state of emergency marks the second time he has opted to use emergency powers since coming to office in May 2021. The deadliest prison riots in Ecuadorean history in September and October 2021 caused Lasso to declare a 60-day nationwide state of emergency, with over 180 inmates killed during deadly rioting which saw the Ecuadorean armed forces briefly unable to control one of the country’s largest prisons.
- This state of emergency is likely to see heavy-handed countermeasures employed by police and armed forces, following Lasso’s statement that ‘the streets will feel the weight’ of the security forces, further increasing the risk of collateral damage to bystanders and business assets in western Ecuador.
FORECAST
The substantial deployment of military and police personnel indicates Lasso’s commitment to achieving a marked reduction in criminal activity in Ecuador’s western provinces in the short term, but will substantially drive domestic unrest risks due to the likelihood of armed confrontations between security forces and OCG members in the western provinces. Whilst high levels of corruption within the police may partially reduce the efficacy of the government’s response to the crime surge, Lasso may also face challenges from within his own government, following the Constitutional Court’s decision to halve the duration of the previous state of emergency in October. The Court is very likely to decry the deployment of military personnel on Ecuador’s streets as it previously did in October, further increasing the potential for political divisions to challenge governmental stability.
Ecuador’s attractiveness to OCGs as a transit route for drugs shipments from Colombia and Peru through to Mexico, by sea, will continue to drive the rise in violence. Businesses operating in Ecuador are increasingly likely to face disruption to shipping and transit through the country as additional checks at borders and on major shipping routes, particularly through the western port city of Guayaquil, are likely to persist throughout the two-month state of emergency. (Source: Sibylline)
29 Apr 22. Afghanistan: ISIS-K Targets Civilians. On 29 April, a bomb attack occurred in the Khalifa Sahib Mosque in western Kabul that killed at least ten people, with the number likely to rise. Hundreds of Sunnis gathered for prayers in the mosque on the last Friday of the holy month of Ramadan before Eid-al Fitr. No group has thus far claimed responsibility for the attack, but it is likely to have been conducted by the Islamic State of Khorasan Province (ISIS-K). The group has claimed responsibility for several recent attacks in the country.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The attack occurred during the ceremony of Zikr – an act of religious remembrance practiced by some Muslims but is considered heretical by other hard-line Sunni groups. This substantiates why ISIS-K, a Sunni fundamentalist group that has mostly targeted Shia mosques, could well be behind this attack. Alarmingly, there have been around 10 attacks in the past two weeks and now even Sunnis are susceptible to being targeted (see Sibylline Alert – 22 April 2022). Despite Ramadan coming to an end, ISIS-K will continue to target civilians as they demonstrate their operational capabilities.
- The uptick of attacks comes just after the Taliban Supreme Leader Haibatullah Akhunzada asked the international community to recognise the Taliban government and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. In his message, he praised the country for having “a strong Islamic and national army” as well as “a strong intelligence organisation”. However, the string of successful attacks underline that the Taliban security apparatus remains ineffective in combatting the growing threat of ISIS-K.
- It is not just ISIS-K that continues to oppose the Taliban, as there has been a growing number of resistance groups declaring their aim to topple the government. These include the well-established National Resistance Front (NRF), led by Ahmad Shah Massoud that operates out of the Panjshir valley region, as well as several new groups have also announced their formation since the start of the year, such as the Afghanistan Freedom Movement and Afghanistan Islamic National Liberation Movement. Furthermore, controversial ex-army general Sami Sadat, in an interview with the BBC, said that eight months of Taliban rule had convinced him and several other Afghans that military confrontation was the only way left to restore order.
FORECAST
As the Ramadan month reaches to an end, the likelihood of attacks in the lead up to Eid on 2-3 May is significantly increased. Key targets include mosques, transport services, and Taliban security infrastructure. While ISIS-K has demonstrated that it has the capability to successfully conduct attacks in different parts of the country, its strongholds in the north and northeast such as Kunduz, Balkh, Nangarhar, and Kabul are exposed to higher risks of attacks in the coming weeks.
While resistance groups continue to oppose the Taliban, they remain divided along various ethnic and sectarian lines that minimises the likelihood of a united front. Furthermore, the objectives and size of these groups remain unclear. However, the Taliban will continue to face pressure from multiple sources that will strain its government and security resources. Those pressures include the NRF, which has been rebuilding its combat capabilities and is involved in sporadic conflicts with Taliban forces, the renewed hostilities from ISIS-K, and growing threats from two of Afghanistan’s neighbours – Iran and Pakistan.
Any potential movement to overthrow the Taliban government will likely lead to the Taliban also launching an offensive against its opponents, raising the threat of armed clashes in upcoming months. In particular, this will sustain elevated security risks for humanitarian organisations that continue to operate on the ground. (Source: Sibylline)
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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Homeland Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need. A CNIM Group Company
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