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18 Mar 22. Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) has published a new report on global arms trade. SIPRI reports that international transfers of major arms saw a slight drop between 2012–16 and 2017–21 (–4.6 percent). Nevertheless, exports by the United States and France increased substantially, as did imports to states in Europe (+19 percent), East Asia (+20 percent), and Oceania (+59 percent). Transfers to the Middle East remained high, while those to Africa and the Americas decreased. The biggest growth in arms imports among world regions occurred in Europe. In 2017–21 imports of major arms by European states were 19 percent higher than in 2012–16 and accounted for 13 percent of global arms transfers. The largest arms importers in Europe were the United Kingdom, Norway, and the Netherlands. Other European states are also expected to increase their arms imports significantly over the coming decade, having recently placed large orders for major arms, in particular combat aircraft from the USA. Despite the armed conflict in eastern Ukraine throughout 2017–21, the country’s imports of major arms in the period were very limited. ‘The severe deterioration in relations between most European states and Russia was an important driver of growth in European arms imports, especially for states that cannot meet all their requirements through their national arms industries,’ said Pieter D. Wezeman, Senior Researcher with the SIPRI Arms Transfers Programme. ‘Arms transfers also play an important role in transatlantic security relationships.’ (Source: glstrade.com)
18 Mar 22. Air and Missile Defense Vital to Region in Face of Iran Threats, General Says. Ballistic missile threats from Iran and its proxies are deeply concerning to nations in the Middle East, the commander of U.S. Central Command said. Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr. briefed the media from Centcom Headquarters in Tampa, Florida.
“Iran’s ballistic missile threat has continued to advance and expand with greater ranges and accuracy,” he said, adding that land attack cruise missiles and small unmanned aerial vehicles also are part of that threat.
Partner nation air defense systems in the region far outnumber those that the U.S. has there, he said. Air defense systems, including high-end ones like the Patriot system, are used by the Gulf States and others.
“The task in the theater is really how do you knit those together so that you create more than a simple sum of the component parts,” he said.
“By doing so, you create a common operational picture, so everybody sees the same thing. Everybody gets early warnings; everybody can be prepared to react very quickly to a potential Iranian attack. That’s where the future in this theater is,” he said.
Iranian ballistic missile threats have provided some opportunities for the United States to advance regional cooperation in the area of air defense, he said.
“Centcom is focused on operationalizing the Abraham Accords as we brought Israel into our area of operations, and missile defense is one area of cooperation that all our partners understand,” he said.
Improving regional missile defense can begin with the sharing of information, which doesn’t require any nation to approve the stationing of foreign forces on their territory, he said. “My hope is that this cooperation will continue to advance in the years to come.”
The number one objective of the United States regarding Iran is that it does not possess a nuclear weapon. The best way to get there is probably through a negotiated agreement as they clearly want relief from sanctions, he said.
That does not solve the compelling problem of Iranian ballistic missiles, land attack cruise missiles and small unmanned aerial vehicles, he said. “We need to recognize that; that’s a separate problem. But I do like having the ability to take the nuclear option off the table, which has to contribute to regional security,” he said.
Lastly, as McKenzie will soon be retiring, he offered some remarks to the press.
“Reaching out and being available to the press and talking to the press is a very important responsibility for all senior leaders,” he said. “There have been days, I’ll tell you, that I would rather have my leg taken off below the knee than come in there and talk to you guys, but it was an important thing to do.
“And in the long run, it’s better for the country. It’s better for everyone, if we’re accessible to you, and we share what information we’ve got. I’ve enjoyed the very professionally rewarding and personally rewarding relationships that I’ve had with members of the media. You’re trying to do your job and your job is very important. And I support it,” he said. (Source: US DoD)
17 Mar 22. General Says China Is Seeking a Naval Base in West Africa. The Chinese are activity seeking a military naval base in Africa on the Atlantic coast, which would threaten U.S. national security, Army Gen. Stephen J. Townsend, commander of U.S. Africa Command said.
Townsend and other Defense Department officials testified today at a House Armed Services Committee hearing on national security challenges and U.S. military activities in the Middle East and Africa.
“The thing I think I’m most worried about is this military base on the Atlantic coast, and where they have the most traction for that today is in Equatorial Guinea,” Townsend said.
They’ve also been seeking other ports on the West Africa coastline, but they’ve made the most progress in Equatorial Guinea, he said.
In response, the U.S. has recently sent an interagency delegation to that country to discuss U.S. security concerns, he said.
“As a first priority, we need to prevent or deter a Chinese space on the Atlantic coast of Africa,” he said, mentioning that he would discuss with lawmakers more details of those national security concerns in closed session.
Elsewhere in Africa, China holds a large percentage of foreign debt and also has extended leases on critical infrastructure, including ports and airports, he said.
Russia also has nefarious designs in Africa, one of which is through its private security company called the Wagner Group, he said.
The Wagner Group offers governments the ability to conduct counterinsurgency and counterterrorism operations unconstrained by human rights responsibilities.
“Wagner obeys no rules. They won’t follow the direction of the government. They won’t partner more effectively,” he said.
A battle between democracy and authoritarianism is raging across Africa, the general said. “In Africa, a few troops and a few bucks still go a long way. Modest and predictable resourcing yields outsized returns for U.S. and African security.”
Africom receives just 0.3% of the DOD operating budget and manpower, he said. “Modest investments today can yield a continent of partners tomorrow. We are most effective when we synchronize diplomacy, development and defense.”
Marine Corps Gen. Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., commander of U.S. Central Command, named Iran as the No. 1 threat to the region with China, Russia and terrorist groups also vying for influence and power.
“Iran is no less of a threat to U.S. interests, or the stability of the region than it was in 1979. To the contrary, the threat posed by Iran is graver than ever,” McKenzie said.
McKenzie described the increased threat from Iran in terms of proxies and clients in the region, most notably Yemen, but also other nations and groups.
Also, the Iranians have made vast improvements in their ballistic missile, land-attack cruise missile and small unmanned aerial vehicle platforms in terms of number, accuracy and ability to fly in relatively undetected ways.
Sasha Baker, deputy undersecretary of defense for policy, testified that the department seeks to limit Russian and Chinese influence in Africa and the Middle East through sustained engagement, demonstrating the superiority of the United States as a partner of choice.
“In the Middle East and Africa, the department builds partnership through an approach that draws on all of our tools to include security cooperation, exercises, defense, diplomacy and force posture,” she said.
The department’s priorities in the Middle East are to defend against Iranian backed threats and to counter violent extremist organizations, in cooperation with partners, she said.
In Africa, DOD is focused on interagency and multilateral efforts to stabilize the region, she said. (Source: US DoD)
15 Mar 22. Australia announces $4.3bn investment in naval shipbuilding capability. The Commonwealth government has pledged to develop a new dry-docking facility at Western Australia’s Henderson Shipyard to “turbocharge” the national shipbuilding effort.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison has announced a $4.3 billion investment in the development of the first large-vessel dry docking facility at Henderson Shipyard in Western Australia.
The new dry-dock will be designed to facilitate the construction and sustainment of large naval vessels in Australia, while also supporting Western Australia’s commercial shipbuilding and sustainment market.
Australian Naval Infrastructure has been tapped to oversee the project, with work scheduled to commence in 2023, initial operational capability expected in 2028, and final operating capability in 2030.
The Commonwealth government, WA government and industry stakeholders have pledged to collaborate to develop a master plan for the defence precinct at Henderson, ensuring the new infrastructure is capable of supporting the national naval shipbuilding enterprise.
The new dry-docking facility is tipped to generate approximately 2,000 direct shipbuilding jobs once completed, with up to 500 jobs created at the peak of construction.
According to Prime Minister Morrison, the project would help build sovereign capabilities and “turbocharge” national naval shipbuilding.
“This is a $4.3bn vote of confidence in Western Australia’s shipbuilding capabilities, jobs, training and the critical role that Western Australia plays in defending Australian and powering our national economy,” he said.
“This multibillion-dollar infrastructure investment will transform the Henderson maritime precinct into a world-class shipbuilding powerhouse, and demonstrates our ongoing commitment to naval capability in the West.
“This investment in WA’s future will ensure we can build, as well as sustain larger vessels in Australia, turbocharging our national naval shipbuilding endeavour and creating thousands of job opportunities for West Australians.”
Prime Minister Morrison noted the importance of Henderson Shipyard, along with HMAS Stirling and Fleet Base West in securing the nation’s future, given the strategic importance of the naval bases in the Indian Ocean.
Minister for Defence Peter Dutton said this latest investment builds on the $1.5bn commitment to infrastructure improvements at HMAS Stirling and the Henderson maritime precinct.
“The Morrison government is committed to delivering the sovereign shipbuilding outcomes outlined in the 2020 Force Structure Plan and the 2017 National Naval Shipbuilding Plan, and Western Australia is central to them,” Minister Dutton said.
“This decision will ensure that we can meet the Navy’s future requirements as we undertake the enormous investments in the maritime capabilities, we need to keep our nation safe in the decades ahead.”
Minister for Defence Industry Melissa Price welcomed the project, outlining the benefits for Western Australia’s defence industry.
“This is a significant infrastructure project that Australian industry is already supporting through concept work and there will be significant future job opportunities for Australian industry throughout design and construction, and once it’s up and running,” Minister Price said.
“The project will build the capacity and capability of sovereign defence industry in the region, particularly in the advanced manufacturing sector, with Australian Industry Capability requirements in contracting arrangements.
“The infrastructure will also support Defence’s $90 million Regional Maintenance Centre due to be operational in Henderson in the second half of 2022 to enable a level of maintenance to be conducted on all surface fleet units and creating 40 jobs.”
This is the latest of four notable investments in Defence capability announced over the past week.
On Thursday (10 March), the government announced $38bn would be invested in expanding the Australian Defence Force by 30 per cent, increasing the number of personnel by 18,500 to an estimated 80,000 by 2040.
Under the plan, the ADF would command 6,000 more troops than the “critical minimum” recommended by Defence to provide “redundancy and resilience” to cover casualties in the event of an armed conflict.
This is set to represent the largest ADF force since the Vietnam War.
The plan will be rolled out across all warfighting domains and all states and territories.
The workforce growth will particularly focus on capabilities associated with the trilateral security partnership between Australia, United Kingdom and United States (AUKUS), as well as air, sea, land, space and cyber.
Earlier in the week, Prime Minister Morrison announced plans to develop a new naval base on Australia’s east coast to support the operation of the Royal Australian Navy’s future nuclear-powered submarines promised under the AUKUS agreement.
The new base is expected to include specialised wharfs; maintenance facilities; administrative and logistics support; personal amenities; and suitable accommodation for submarine crews and support staff, including visitors.
Brisbane, Newcastle and Port Kembla have been shortlisted among 19 locations reviewed by the government.
The Commonwealth government is reportedly favouring development in Wollongong’s Port Kembla, as outlined in a submission to the cabinet’s National Security Committee.
Most recently, the government contracted wholly-owned Boeing subsidiary Insitu Pacific to supply 24 ‘Integrator’ tactical uncrewed aerial systems (UAS) to the Australian Army under the LAND 129 Phase 3 project.
The acquisition and initial contract period with Insitu Pacific are estimated to be worth approximately $307m, and forms part of a new $650 million Commonwealth government investment in Defence capability.
The contract also includes the delivery of associated ground systems and prime systems integrator services.
The platforms are set to be manufactured from the company’s facility in Brisbane, with delivery expected in 2023 and 2024. (Source: Defence Connect)
14 Mar 22. Iran: Suspension of nuclear talks threatens to deepen regional and global insecurity. On 11 March, Josep Borrell, representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security, confirmed the suspension of negotiations to renew a nuclear deal with Iran. Borrell added that the intermission occurred due to unresolved “external factors”, as Washington faces added Russian demands related to the interruption of trading with Iran in the aftermath of Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Iranian officials have insisted that foreign demands will not influence the trajectory of talks, however, concerns over deepening ties between Tehran and Moscow threaten to complicate the trajectory of talks over concerns for global security. Moreover, there is growing possibility of deterioration in the short term if Iran utilises the suspension to threaten further breaches of the 2015 nuclear deal, including additional uranium enrichment. Ultimately, progress will likely remain slow amid the backdrop of the Russia – Ukraine conflict, as Washington navigates heightened global and regional security dilemmas. (Source: Sibylline)
14 Mar 22. Turkmenistan: Snap election results facilitating dynastic power transfer likely to mitigate policy. On 14 March, the Central Election Committee (CEC) will reveal the results of snap presidential elections, announcing a voter turnout of 97 percent. Eight registered contenders took part in the ballot, however, there were no international observers present at the vote, which is widely understood as having been neither free nor fair. Instead, the election results represent a symbolic process to confirm the transfer of power from President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedow to his son, Serdar, who has been serving as Deputy Prime Minister since 2021. The results are set to mark the first successful dynastic transfer of power in Central Asia. Nevertheless, the almost identical rhetoric of the incumbent and soon-to-be president indicates that Gurbanguly will continue to exercise unofficial decision-making power. This is likely to generate a significant degree of policy continuity in the coming months and prevent genuine moves to develop democracy and civil society beyond box-ticking campaign pledges. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Mar 22. How Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Is Shaping China’s Plans for Taiwan. As Washington grapples with the fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, lawmakers and officials are also wrestling with what the war means for a different territory eyed by a U.S. rival half a world away.
In several congressional hearings this week, lawmakers pressed U.S. military leaders and intelligence officials to dissect how the war in Ukraine might be affecting China’s thinking on invading Taiwan.
The takeaway: Beijing appears unnerved by both the strength of the world’s condemnation of Moscow and the Russian military’s struggles in the first two weeks of the war, but it’s unclear whether that’s enough to prevent Chinese President Xi Jinping from using force to accomplish his No. 1 priority of reunifying China and Taiwan.
“We continue to watch to try to identify, has he learned the correct lessons as it applies to the changing world order and the concern that we see in the Ukraine?” Adm. John Aquilino, head of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Thursday.
Intelligence officials suggested Beijing may be more hesitant to act now.
“They’ve been surprised and unsettled to some extent by what they’ve seen in Ukraine over the last 12 days, everything from the strength of the Western reaction, to the way in which Ukrainians have fiercely resisted, to the relatively poor performance of Russia,” CIA Director William Burns told the House Intelligence Committee on Tuesday.
Still, Burns said, “I would not underestimate President Xi and the Chinese leadership’s determination with regard to Taiwan.”
A little more than two weeks after Russia launched a massive assault on Ukraine, Kyiv and most major cities remain in Ukrainian hands, though Russia has had better progress in the south, occupying Kherson and isolating Mariupol through devastating attacks — including bombing a maternity hospital.
U.S. officials say Russia failed to achieve its goal of quickly overwhelming and seizing Kyiv because of a stronger-than-expected Ukrainian resistance and the Russian military’s own logistics failures, including low fuel and food supplies.
Meanwhile, Russia’s economy is in shambles after the West imposed strict sanctions and major companies vowed to end business there, and the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency estimates as many as 4,000 Russian troops may have been killed in the first two weeks of the war.
In his Senate testimony, Aquilino cited the death toll as one of the lessons he said Beijing should be learning from the war in Ukraine.
“Number one, the loss of life required to create and execute an illegal war is certainly something that ought to be taken away,” Aquilino said, adding that the high casualty rate is something that “will haunt” both Russian President Vladimir Putin and Xi.
China should also take note of the broad international condemnation of Russia’s actions and the “significant economic impacts that the free world can bring together,” Aquilino added.
The United States views Taiwan as a democratic bulwark against authoritarian China’s expansionist ambitions, but does not officially recognize Taiwan as an independent country, a careful highwire act that has been U.S. policy since President Richard Nixon established relations with China in 1972. But the United States has still sought to harden Taiwan against a potential Chinese invasion, including training Taiwanese forces and selling Taipei fighter jets, anti-ship missiles and other weapons.
China considers Taiwan a breakaway province, and Xi has vowed to pursue “reunification.” While U.S. officials say Xi would prefer to accomplish that through coercive measures short of all-out war, they add he is prepared to use military force if need be.
Aquilino’s predecessor, Adm. Philip Davidson, predicted last year that China could try to invade Taiwan within six years. Aquilino has not explicitly endorsed that timeline, but he noted to lawmakers this week that Xi has told his military to “complete its modernization” by 2027.
“I see actions that give me concern that the timeline is shrinking, and the mission that I’ve been given is to be prepared for it,” Aquilino said, citing Chinese actions such as cracking down on Hong Kong, claiming disputed territory in the South China Sea and skirmishing with Indian forces in disputed territory along the China-India border.
For the U.S. military, the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been “a real wake-up” on the need to prepare for possible Chinese invasion of Taiwan, including putting more troops and ships in the Asia-Pacific region, Aquilino said at a House Armed Services Committee hearing Tuesday.
While stressing that Taiwan and Ukraine are “two different things,” in part because of differences in the U.S. military posture in Europe and the Pacific, Defense Intelligence Agency Director Lt. Gen. Scott Berrier told the House Intelligence Committee that China is watching how the Ukraine war unfolds “very, very carefully.”
One factor that could be contributing to China’s unease in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine is Beijing’s own intelligence failures, Burns told senators Thursday.
“Chinese leadership, President Xi in particular, is unsettled by what he’s seen, partly because his own intelligence doesn’t appear to have told him what was going to happen,” Burns said at a Senate Intelligence Committee hearing.
Weeks before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Putin and Xi signed a pact that declared there were “no limits” or “‘forbidden’ areas of cooperation” between Russia and China.
While Burns does not expect major changes in China-Russia relations post-Ukraine invasion, he does think Beijing is concerned about the “reputational damage that China suffers by association with the ugliness of Russia’s aggression.”
Overall, Burns said, the war in Ukraine is having “an impact on the Chinese calculus with regard to Taiwan, which we obviously are going to continue to pay careful attention to.”
(Source: Military.com)
13 Mar 22. Houthi forces in Yemen “expand drone attacks on Saudi Arabia.” Yemen’s Houthi group claimed it launched a drone attack on a refinery in the Saudi capital Riyadh on March 10, which Saudi state media said did not affect petroleum supplies, according to Reuters. “The Iran-aligned Houthi movement targeted a Saudi Aramco refinery in Riyadh using three Samad-3 drones, its military spokesman Yahya Sarea said on Friday. Six Samad-1 drones were also fired at Aramco facilities in the Saudi cities of Jizan and Abha.”
According to the official Saudi Press Agency: “An official spokesman at the Ministry of Energy stated that at around 04:40 AM of yesterday (March 10), the Riyadh oil refinery was attacked by a drone, resulting in a small fire that has been brought under control. The attack did not result in any injury or death nor was the supply of oil or its derivatives affected.”
Saudi Arabia has been strengthening its counter-UAS capabilities (https://www.unmannedairspace.info/counter-uas-systems-and-policies/saudi-arabias-aec-starts-deployment-of-nationwide-c-uas-network-dubai-air-show-2021/) following an escalation in missile and drone assaults by Yemen’s Houthis in recent months.
In February, 16 people including foreign nationals, were injured in Saudi Arabia when a drone was launched towards King Abdullah Airport in the southwestern Jizan province. Two weeks previously, according to Al Jezeera news network, a similar attempted drone attack and interception resulted in 12 people wounded at an airport in the southern Saudi city of Abha, also near the kingdom’s border with Yemen.
In response, the coalition said it destroyed a communications system used for drone attacks on February 14 located near the telecommunications ministry in Sanaa.
“In December, the coalition said the Houthis had fired more than 850 drones and 400 ballistic missiles at Saudi Arabia in the previous seven years, killing a total of 59 civilians,” said the news report.
For more information
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/2/22/16-hurt-as-yemen-rebel-drone-targets-saudi-airport-coalition
https://www.spa.gov.sa/viewfullstory.php?lang=en&newsid=2336518#2336518
https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/attack-refinery-riyadh-did-not-affect-petroleum-supplies-spa-2022-03-10/ (Source: www.unmannedairspace.info)
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