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28 Feb 22. Russia’s isolation deepens as Ukraine resists invasion.

Russia-Ukraine talks imminent at Belarus border
Over 360,000 refugees have fled Ukraine, U.N. says
BP gives up Rosneft stake, writing off $25bn

– Russia’s political and economic isolation deepened on Monday as its forces met stiff resistance in Ukraine’s capital and other cities in the biggest assault on a European state since World War Two.

President Vladimir Putin put Russia’s nuclear deterrent on high alert on Sunday in the face of a barrage of Western-led reprisals for his war on Ukraine, which said it had repelled Russian ground forces’ attempts to capture urban centres.

Blasts were heard before dawn on Monday in the capital of Kyiv and in the major city of Kharkiv, Ukrainian authorities said, while diplomatic manoeuvring continued.

Ukraine said negotiations with Moscow without preconditions would be held at the Belarusian-Ukrainian border. Russian news agency Tass cited an unidentified source as saying the talks would start on Monday morning.

U.S. President Joe Biden will host a call with allies and partners on Monday to coordinate a united response, the White House said.

The United States said Putin was escalating the war with “dangerous rhetoric” about Russia’s nuclear posture, amid signs Russian forces were preparing to besiege major cities in the democratic country of about 44 million people.

As missiles rained down, nearly 400,000 civilians, mainly women and children, have fled into neighbouring countries, a U.N. relief agency said.

A senior U.S. defence official said Russia had fired more than 350 missiles at Ukrainian targets so far, some hitting civilian infrastructure.

“It appears that they are adopting a siege mentality, which any student of military tactics and strategy will tell you, when you adopt siege tactics, it increases the likelihood of collateral damage,” the official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy told British Prime Minister Boris Johnson by telephone on Sunday that the next 24 hours would be crucial for Ukraine, a Downing Street spokesperson said.

So far, the Russian offensive cannot claim any major victories. Russian has not taken any Ukrainian city, does not control Ukraine’s airspace, and its troops remained roughly 30 km (19 miles) from Kyiv’s city centre for a second day, the official said.

Russia calls its actions in Ukraine a “special operation” that it says is not designed to occupy territory but to destroy its southern neighbour’s military capabilities and capture what it regards as dangerous nationalists.

UNPRECEDENTED SANCTIONS

Western-led political, strategic, economic and corporate sanctions were unprecedented in their extent and coordination, and there were further pledges of military support for Ukraine’s badly outgunned armed forces.

The rouble plunged nearly 30% to an all-time low versus the dollar, after Western nations on Saturday unveiled harsh sanctions including blocking some Russian banks from the SWIFT international payments system.

Japan and South Korea said they would join in the action to block some banks from SWIFT. South Korea, a major exporter of semiconductors, would also ban exports of strategic items to Russia.

Singapore, a financial and shipping hub, said it intended to impose sanctions and restrictions on Russia, the Straits Times newspaper reported.

Japan said was also considering imposing sanctions against some individuals in Belarus, a key staging area for the Russian invasion.

A referendum in Belarus on Sunday approved a new constitution ditching the country’s non-nuclear status.

Several European subsidiaries of Sberbank Russia, majority owned by the Russian government, were failing or were likely to fail due to reputational cost of the war in Ukraine, the European Central Bank said. read more

Russia’s central bank scrambled to manage the broadening fallout of the sanctions saying it would resume buying gold on the domestic market, launch a repurchase auction with no limits and ease restrictions on banks’ open foreign currency positions.

It also ordered brokers to block attempt by foreigners to sell Russian securities. read more

That could complicate plans by the sovereign wealth funds of Norway and Australia, which said they planned to wind down their exposure to Russian-listed companies. read more

Corporate giants also took action, with British oil major BP BP, the biggest foreign investor in Russia, saying it would abandon its stake in state oil company Rosneft (ROSN.MM) at a cost of up to $25 billion. read more

The European Union on Sunday decided for the first time in its history to supply weapons to a country at war, pledging arms including fighter jets to Ukraine.

Germany, which had already frozen a planned undersea gas pipeline from Russia, said it would increase defence spending massively, casting off decades of reluctance to match its economic power with military clout.

EU Chief Executive Ursula von der Leyen expressed support for Ukraine’s membership in an interview with Euronews, saying “they are one of us.” r

The EU shut all Russian planes out of its airspace, as did Canada, forcing Russian airline Aeroflot to cancel all flights to European destinations until further notice. The United States and France urged their citizens to consider leaving Russia immediately. read more

The EU also banned the Russian media outlets RT and Sputnik.

In New York, the U.N. Security Council convened a rare emergency meeting of the U.N. General Assembly, or all the United Nations’ 193 member states, for Monday.

Rolling protests have been held around the world against the invasion, including in Russia, where almost 6,000 people have been detained at anti-war protests since Thursday, the OVD-Info protest monitor said.

Tens of thousands of people across Europe marched in protest, including more than 100,000 in Berlin.

Meta Platforms (FB.O) said it had removed a network of about 40 fake accounts, groups and pages across Facebook and Instagram that operated from Russia and Ukraine targeting public figures in Ukraine, for violating its rules against coordinated inauthentic behavior. read more

Twitter said it had also suspended more than a dozen accounts and blocked the sharing of several links for violating its rules against platform manipulation and spam. (Source: Reuters)

28 Feb 22. Crude jumps, stocks slip, rouble crashes to record low on tough Russian sanctions.

Summary
U.S., Australian bond yields fall as investors seek havens
Euro sinks with Aussie, kiwi; safe-haven dollar, yen, gold gain
Asian stocks give up early gains; U.S., Europe futures sink

Crude oil jumped while the rouble plunged nearly 30% to a record low on Monday after Western nations imposed tough new sanctions on Russia for its invasion of Ukraine, including blocking some banks from the SWIFT global payments system.

Safe-haven demand boosted bonds along with the dollar and yen while the euro sank after Russian President Vladimir Putin put nuclear-armed forces on high alert on Sunday, the fourth day of the biggest assault on a European state since World War Two. read more

The ramp-up in tensions heightened fears that oil supplies from the world’s second-largest producer could be disrupted, sending Brent crude futures up $4.21 or 4.3% to $102.14. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were up $4.58 or 5.0% at $96.17 a barrel.

“I am telling clients all we know for certain is that energy prices are going to be higher, and there are going to be some beneficiaries,” said John Milroy, Ord Minnett financial advisor in Sydney.

“It’s an old cliché, but it’s true that uncertainty drives moves in both directions.”

Asia-Pacific shares turned lower after spending the morning session mostly in the green, putting them in line with declines for U.S. and European stock futures.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 (.N225) fell 0.25%, while Chinese blue chips (.CSI300) slipped 0.36%. Australia’s benchmark (.AXJO), though, added 0.64%, boosted by energy shares.

MSCI’s index of regional stocks (.MIAP00000PUS) lost 0.58%.

U.S. emini stock futures were pointing to a 2.35% drop at the restart, while pan-European EURO STOXX 50 futures slid 3.90%. FTSE futures declined 1.21%.

“We had a deluge of very negative information over the weekend,” said Kyle Rodda, a market analyst at IG Australia. “We’re talking about financial stability risks, and sprinkle over that the threat of nuclear war.”

“Volatility is heightened,” he said. “Price action is incredibly choppy.”

The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield fell about 9 basis points to 1.89%, and equivalent Australian yields retreated about 6 basis points to 2.177%.

The euro slid 1.1% to $1.11465 and 1.1% to 128.785 yen , while the risk-sensitive Australian and New Zealand dollars sank 0.78% and 0.88%, respectively.

The rouble dived as much as 29.67% to a record-low 119.5 per dollar.

Gold rose more than 1% to around $1,909 on demand for the safest assets.

“This volatility will go on for a while yet, until the dust settles,” said Shane Oliver, chief economist at AMP Capital.

In the meantime, “markets are going to be swinging from headline to headline,” he said. (Source: Reuters)

28 Feb 22. UK Statement on Further Economic Sanctions Targeted at the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. Today the UK government has announced its intention to take further restrictive economic measures in response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia, by targeting the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR). Following already announced sanctions measures aimed at imposing severe consequences on Russian President Vladimir Putin and the Russian economy, the Chancellor of the Exchequer, in coordination with the Governor of the Bank of England, today announces the UK Government’s intention to take further restrictive economic measures in response to the invasion of Ukraine by Russia by targeting the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR). This action is taken in concert with the US and the European Union, to prevent the CBR from deploying its foreign reserves in ways that undermine the impact of sanctions imposed by us and our allies, and to undercut its ability to engage in foreign exchange transactions to support the Russian rouble.

The UK Government will immediately take all necessary steps to bring into effect restrictions to prohibit any UK natural or legal persons from undertaking financial transactions involving the CBR, the Russian National Wealth Fund, and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation. The UK Government intends to make further related designations this week, working alongside our international partners.

The Chancellor said: “These measures demonstrate our determination to apply severe economic sanctions in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. We are announcing this action in rapid coordination with our US and European allies to move in lock step once more with our international partners, to demonstrate our steadfast resolve in imposing the highest costs on Russia and to cut her off from the international financial system so long as this conflict persists.”

The Governor of the Bank of England said: “The Bank of England continues to take any and all actions needed to support the Government’s response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We welcome the steps taken today by the UK Government, in coordination with EU and US authorities, as an important and powerful demonstration of the UK’s commitment to the international rule of law.”

New sanctions measures will cover:

Restrictions to prohibit UK persons from undertaking financial transactions involving the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the Russian National Wealth Fund, and the Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation.
Restrictions against Russian financial institutions.
Measures to prevent Russian companies from issuing transferable securities and money market instruments in the UK. This will form a sweeping addition to existing financial restrictions. This is in addition to the prohibition of the Russian state raising sovereign debt in the UK already announced.
A power to prevent designated banks from accessing Sterling and clearing payments through the UK. This will match the power the US already has. Banks subject to this measure will be unable to process any payments through the UK or have access to UK financial markets.
A set of measures to strengthen significantly our trade restrictions against Russia. This will include a prohibition against the export of a range of high-end and critical technical equipment and components in sectors including electronics, telecommunications, and aerospace.
The previously announced extension of financial and trade measures applying to Crimea to the DNR and LNR regions.
Any General Licences related to sanctions will be published on OFSI’s pages here.

Our package of sanctions, the strongest economic measures the UK has ever enacted against Russia, will inflict devastating consequences on President Vladimir Putin and Russia:

Sanctions will devastate Russia’s economy and targets Vladimir Putin directly and his inner circle including Sergey Lavrov.
More than 100 companies and oligarchs at the heart of Putin’s regime have been hit with sanctions worth 100s of billions of pounds, asset freezes and travel bans.
Hit Russia’s banking and defence sector hard; asset freezes on VTB, Russia’s second largest bank, worth £154 billion, Rostec, Russia’s defence giant, responsible for $13bn of arms exports per year. Sanctions will also soon be implemented on 571 members of the Duma and Federation council who sanctioned the invasion of Ukraine.
We have banned Aeroflot and all other Russian commercial and private jets from UK airspace.
This is not the end. We are working in lock step with allies to go further and exclude Russian banks from the SWIFT financial system.
We will introduce new financial measures to freeze the assets of Russian banks and lay legislation before Parliament to ban the Russian state and Russia’s economically vital industries and companies from raising finance on the UK’s money markets – the most important financial centre in Europe.
Working with allies, we will cripple Russia’s economic development in both the short and long term. The UK and our allies are united and clear that nothing and no one is off the table.
UK sanctions will also apply to Belarussian individuals and organisations that have supported the Russian invasion.

Find out more about the UK’s sanctions relating to Russia here: https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/uk-sanctions-on-russia (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

25 Feb 22. NATO allies to provide more weapons to Ukraine, Stoltenberg says. NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said on Friday the alliance was deploying parts of its combat-ready response force and would continue to send weapons to Ukraine, including air defences, while saying that Russia was trying to topple the Ukrainian government.

“We see rhetoric, the messages, which is strongly indicating that the aim is to remove the democratically elected government in Kyiv,” he told a news conference following a virtual meeting of NATO leaders.

Some of the 30 NATO allies announced the type of weapons that they would supply Ukraine, including air defences, he said, without giving details. “Allies are very committed to continue to provide support,” he said.

Stoltenberg said NATO was deploying elements of its rapid response force, which is made up of land, air, maritime and special operations forces, on allied territory.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg speaks at a news conference following a NATO leaders virtual summit, after Russia launched a massive military operation against Ukraine, in Brussels, Belgium February 25, 2022. REUTERS/Yves Herman

“We are now deploying the NATO response force for the first time in the context of collective defence,” he said.

Separately, Germany announced it would be deploying a company of troops to Slovakia where the soldiers will build part of a new NATO battlegroup to be established.

“We are working on quickly sending a company to Slovakia,” German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht told German public TV ZDF after talks with her Slovak counterpart.

A company usually comprises some 150-200 troops. Germany will also send a Patriot missile defence battery to NATO’s eastern flank, together with some 300 troops to operate it. It was not immediately clear where exactly the system would go. (Source: Reuters)

27 Feb 22. Germany to increase defence spending in response to ‘Putin’s war’ – Scholz.

Summary
Companies
Scholz tells Bundestag Germany must spend more on defense
Berlin to raise defense spending to more than 2% of output
Berlin has made several major policy shifts since Russian attack

Chancellor Olaf Scholz said on Sunday Germany would sharply increase its spending on defence to more than 2% of its economic output in one of a series of policy shifts prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

Germany this week also halted its Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project with Russia and agreed to send weapons to Ukraine after long resisting pressure from Western allies on both issues and facing accusations of being too dovish towards the Kremlin. read more

“We will have to invest more in the security of our country to protect out freedom and democracy,” Scholz told an extraordinary session of the Bundestag lower house of parliament on Sunday.

Germany has long resisted pressure from the United States and others to raise its defence spending to 2% of economic output in the light of its 20th century history and resulting strong pacifism among its population.

According to NATO statistics, Germany is expected to have spent 1.53% of its GDP on defence in 2021.

Scholz said the government had decided to supply 100 billion euros for military investments from its 2022 budget. Germany’s entire defence budget by comparison was 47bn euros in 2021.

Germany could purchase U.S. F-35 fighter jets built by Lockheed Martin (LMT.N) to replace its ageing Tornado in the role of nuclear sharing, Scholz said.

But the next generation of fighter jets and tanks must be built in Europe jointly with European partners, particularly with France, he said.

He also said that Germany had to move quickly to reduce its dependence on Russia as an energy supplier. read more

On Germany’s decision to send Ukraine defensive anti-tank weapons, surface-to-air missiles and ammunition after long refusing on the grounds that the country did not send weapons to conflict zones, Scholz said simply: “There could be no other answer to Putin’s aggression”.

Scholz said the Russian leadership would soon feel the high price it had to pay for his war.

“And we reserve the right to impose further sanctions without any taboos,” he said. (Source: Google/Reuters)

27 Feb 22. Russian Strategic Forces Reportedly on High Alert as Fighting in Ukraine Intensifies.

U.S. officials don’t doubt reports that Russian President Vladimir Putin has placed Russia’s nuclear deterrence forces on high alert, a senior defense official said at a press briefing today.

“We have no reason to doubt the validity of these reports,” the official said.

This is an unnecessary step for Putin to take because Russia has never been under threat from NATO and certainly not from Ukraine, the official said.

It is escalatory because it’s potentially putting at play forces that could, if there’s a miscalculation, make things much more dangerous, the official said.

“We remain confident in our ability to defend ourselves and our allies and our partners, and that includes in the strategic deterrent realm,” the official said.

Regarding the situation in Ukraine, the official said that roughly two-thirds of Russian forces arrayed along the border are now inside Ukraine, an increase over the last 24 hours when roughly half of those forces were inside Ukraine.

Ukrainians are putting up stiff resistance in the face of invading Russian forces, the official said, adding that no major cities inside Ukraine have yet been captured.

“We believe that their advance was slowed both by resistance from the Ukrainians, who have been quite creative in finding ways to attack columns, and, number two, by the fuel shortages and the sustainment issues that they have had,” the official said.

Logistics shortages have been particularly acute in their advanced on Kharkiv,” which is in northeast Ukraine, the official said.

Some Russian reconnaissance elements have been in Kyiv over the last two days, and there are reports that they are wearing Ukrainian military uniforms to disguise themselves, the official said. In some cases, they have been identified by locals and by the Ukrainian military.

Russian forces, which are converging from the northeast and northwest, remain about 30 kilometers from the city center of Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, the official said.

In the south of Ukraine, Russian forces are moving northeast toward Mariupol and are now about 50 kilometers from the center of that city, the official said. They are also moving northwest toward the city of Kherson.

“Our assessment is that Mariupol is defended, and the Ukrainians will put up stiff resistance there,” the official said.

The airspace over Ukraine is still contested, and that means that Ukrainians are still using their own aircraft and air and missile defense systems, which are believed to be still intact and still viable, although somewhat degraded, the official said.

Russians continue launching missiles against targets in Ukraine, mostly short-range, ballistic missiles, the official said. There are indications that some of the missiles launched have experienced failures.

There are indications that Russian forces are adopting siege tactics around the city of Chernihiv, which is northeast of Kyiv. This is particularly troubling as it could result in civilian casualties, the official said.

The U.S. and NATO continue providing Ukraine with lethal and nonlethal assistance, the official said.

An increased number of people, including some Americans, are leaving Ukraine, with many going to Poland, the official said. The 82nd Airborne Division is poised near the border and prepared to assist should the need arise.

“Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelenskyy is still governing his country, still viable, still active,” the official said. “He still has command and control over his armed forces.” (Source: US DoD)

27 Feb 22. Greece to send defence supplies to Ukraine. Greece is sending defence supplies to Ukraine in response to a request from the Ukrainian government, the prime minister’s office said on Sunday. Two C-130 military transport planes will carry the supplies to Poland in a show of solidarity with the Ukrainian people, it said. It will then be transported across the border to Ukraine. Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was briefed on the situation in Ukraine by the country’s defence minister and the head of Greece’s national defence staff. Athens is also sending humanitarian aid to Ukraine on Sunday. Ten Greek nationals were killed and six others were wounded by Russian bombings near the Ukrainian city of Mariupol, Greece said on Saturday, as it summoned Russia’s ambassador to the Foreign Ministry on Monday. read more The mayor of Sartana village in Ukraine asked residents to evacuate it and head to Mariupol after the Russian bombings, the foreign ministry said. Russia’s embassy in Athens said in a tweet: “We call on all those who rushed to blame Russia for everything to … stop anti-Russian propaganda and show calmness and seriousness.” (Source: Google/Reuters)

28 Feb 22. NATO shores up enhanced Air Policing mission. NATO members have increased the number of aircraft committed to the alliance’s enhanced Air Policing (eAP) mission following Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. With the current already reinforced eAP mission comprising combat aircraft from Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, France, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Romania, Spain, the United Kingdom, and the United States, additional aircraft have been sent by Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, and the US.

“Over 100 allied fighters and enabling aircraft are already patrolling our skies and securing NATO’s eastern borders 24/7,” the NATO Allied Air Command said on 26 February. “Together with land and maritime forces of the rapidly deployable NATO Response Force the alliance has activated, we are ready to further protect allies.”

NATO operates several air policing missions within its wider eAP construct, with the Baltic and Southern Air Policing missions being the two chief efforts geared at countering Russia in the east and the Icelandic mission doing the same in the north. (Source: Janes)

25 Feb 22. Department of Defense Statement on Additional Military Assistance for Ukraine. The following statement is attributed to Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby: Yesterday, the President authorized an additional $350m of military assistance from Department of Defense inventories, including anti-armor, small arms and various munitions, body armor, and related equipment in support of Ukraine’s front-line defenders facing down Russia’s unprovoked attack. This brings the total security assistance we’ve approved for Ukraine to $1bn over the past year, and it is the third time President Biden expedited emergency security assistance for Ukraine’s defense in recent months using the Presidential Drawdown Authority. And, as I have said before, the U.S. is not supporting Ukraine alone. Many other countries are contributing to Ukraine’s ability to defend itself from this unprovoked Russian aggression. We, along with our Allies and partners, are standing together to continue to expedite security assistance to Ukraine, and are employing all available security cooperation tools in support of the Ukrainian people as they defend themselves against this aggression. So, our commitments and deliveries continue as a sign of our unwavering support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. (Source: US DoD)

25 Feb 22. UK forces arrive to reinforce NATO’s eastern flank. UK sea, land and air forces have arrived to reinforce NATO in the East in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Royal Navy ships, British Army troops, and Royal Air force fighters are arriving on new deployments in eastern Europe to bolster NATO’s eastern front. HMS Trent is in the eastern Mediterranean, conducting NATO exercises with Merlin Helicopters and RAF P8 Poseidon Maritime Patrol Aircraft. They will be shortly joined by HMS Diamond, a Type 45 destroyer, which set sail from Portsmouth yesterday.

Challenger 2 tanks and armoured vehicles of the Royal Welsh battlegroup have arrived in Estonia from Germany, with further equipment and around 1000 troops arriving over the coming days. This will lead to a doubling of the UK presence in Estonia, where the UK leads a NATO battlegroup as part of the Alliance’s enhanced Forward Presence.

RAF Typhoon fighter jets have already completed their first air policing missions across the region, with an additional four aircraft based at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus. Typhoons flying from bases in Cyprus and the UK are now patrolling NATO airspace over Romania and Poland alongside NATO allies with Voyager air-to-air refuelling aircraft in support.

Defence Secretary Ben Wallace MP said: “Our armed forces are once again being called upon in the service of our Nation and I salute the bravery and sense of duty shared by all our personnel who have been deployed to support NATO. Alongside our NATO Allies, these deployments constitute a credible deterrent to stop Russian aggression threatening the territorial sovereignty of member states.”

Yesterday, the Defence Secretary held a virtual donor conference with more than 25 countries, including the US and Canada and some countries outside NATO, coordinating their support to Ukraine. They will continue to give humanitarian and military support, which includes ammunition and anti-tank weapons, and the UK has offered to conduct logistics operations to support the delivery of donations.

NATO Allies are united in response to Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and are collectively taking a range of measures to protect their security and deter further aggression. At a meeting of NATO Heads of State and government yesterday (25 February), all 30 member nations agreed that:

“We will make all deployments necessary to ensure strong and credible deterrence and defence across the Alliance, now and in the future. Our measures are and remain preventive, proportionate and non-escalatory.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)

Stoltenberg said NATO was deploying elements of its rapid response force, which is made up of land, air, maritime and special operations forces, on allied territory.

“We are now deploying the NATO response force for the first time in the context of collective defence,” he said.

Separately, Germany announced it would be deploying a company of troops to Slovakia where the soldiers will build part of a new NATO battlegroup to be established.

“We are working on quickly sending a company to Slovakia,” German Defence Minister Christine Lambrecht told German public TV ZDF after talks with her Slovak counterpart.

A company usually comprises some 150-200 troops.

Germany will also send a Patriot missile defence battery to NATO’s eastern flank, together with some 300 troops to operate it. It was not immediately clear where exactly the system would go. (Source: Reuters)

25 Feb 22. Ukrainian Military Fighting Bravely Against Russian Invaders. Ukrainian service members are fighting bravely — and effectively — for their country against the massive Russian onslaught, a senior defense official said at the Pentagon today.

The official, speaking on background, said Russian forces attacking toward the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv are going slower than they anticipated. “They are meeting more resistance than they expected,” the official said.

The invasion, launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin on Feb. 23, is designed to “decapitate” the Ukrainian government so Russia can install its own puppet regime, DOD officials said.

The attack on the capital is just one of three axes that the Russians are attacking through. The second one is aimed at Kharkiv in the northeastern part of the country and fighting continues in that region. A third attack in the south seems to be splitting with Russian forces aiming northwest toward Kyiv and northeast toward Mariupol west of that city, Russian amphibious ships are landing naval infantry. “The general assumption is that they will move … towards the northeast towards Mariupol and the Donbass region,” the official said.

“What we’ve seen over the last 24 hours, we do assess that there is greater resistance by the Ukrainians than the Russians expected,” the official said.

“We also assess over the last 24 hours that in general … the Russians have lost a little bit of their momentum,” he said. “They are not advancing as far or as fast as we believe they expected they would do. A good indicator of that is no population centers have been taken.”

The official said that Russia has yet to achieve air superiority over Ukraine. “Ukrainian air missile defense systems are still working, though they were degraded by strikes,” he said.

This includes Ukrainian aircraft that continue to engage and deny air access to Russian aircraft.

Russia continues to fire missiles into Ukraine with the total number up to around 200 since the invasion began. These are a combination of ballistic and cruise-launched missiles from land, sea and air.

Officials estimate the Russians have about a third of the forces they amassed on Ukraine’s borders and in Belarus inside Ukraine now.

Finally, he noted that Ukrainian command and control of its military is still working and that officials are still able to coordinate movements, get supplies where they are needed, target the enemy and so on.

There have certainly been casualties, but the official would not hazard a guess to the extent. “While I can’t give you exact numbers, we certainly don’t think that it has been bloodless,” the official said. “In just the last 24 hours that there have been, there has been loss of life. There have been casualties, and each and every one of them could have been avoided if Mr. Putin had taken advantage of the diplomatic options he still had available to him. his war, his choice and these are on his hands, and I think that’s important to continue to remember.” (Source: US DoD)

BATTLESPACE Comment: Could Kiev become Putin’s Stalingrad?

26 Feb 22. Russia says its forces capture south Ukraine city amid cruise missile strikes.

Summary
Missile strikes on several cities
Gunfire in central Kyiv – witness
Putin urges Ukraine military to overthrow leaders
EU and Britain to freeze assets of Putin and Lavrov

Russian forces captured the southeastern Ukrainian city of Melitopol on Saturday, Russia’s Interfax news agency reported, as Moscow launched coordinated cruise missile and artillery strikes on several cities, including the capital Kyiv.

Ukrainian officials were not immediately available for comment on the fate of Melitopol, a city of about 150,000 people. If confirmed, it would be the first significant population centre the Russians have seized since their invasion began on Thursday.

Earlier, Ukrainian officials said Russian forces fired cruise missiles from the Black Sea at Mariupol, as well as Sumy in the northeast and Poltava in the east.

Kyiv authorities said a missile hit a residential building and a Reuters witness said another hit an area near the airport. There was no immediate word on casualties.

Earlier, gunfire erupted near city-centre government buildings, a Reuters witness said. The cause was not clear.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking in a video message from outside his Kyiv office, was defiant. “We will not put down weapons, we will defend our state,” he said.

Ukrainian authorities have urged citizens to help defend Kyiv from the advancing Russian forces but even as the fighting grew more intense, the Russian and Ukrainian governments signalled an openness to negotiations, offering the first glimmer of hope for diplomacy since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched the invasion.

The air force command earlier reported heavy fighting near an air base at Vasylkiv southwest of the capital, which it said was under attack from Russian paratroopers.

It said one of its fighters had shot down a Russian transport plane. Reuters could not independently verify the claims.

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the president’s office, said the situation in Kyiv and its outskirts was under control.

“There are cases of sabotage and reconnaissance groups working in the city, police and self-defence forces are working efficiently against them,” Podolyak said.

Kyiv residents were told by the defence ministry to make petrol bombs to repel the invaders.

Some families cowered in shelters and hundreds of thousands have left their homes to find safety, according to a U.N. aid official.

Ukraine said more than 1,000 Russian soldiers had been killed. Russia did not release casualty figures. Zelenskiy said late on Thursday that 137 soldiers and civilians been killed with hundreds wounded.

PUTIN’S APPEAL

After weeks of warnings from Western leaders, Putin unleashed a three-pronged invasion of Ukraine from the north, east and south on Thursday, in an attack that threatened to upend Europe’s post-Cold War order.

“I once again appeal to the military personnel of the armed forces of Ukraine: do not allow neo-Nazis and (Ukrainian radical nationalists) to use your children, wives and elders as human shields,” Putin said at a televised meeting with Russia’s Security Council.

“Take power into your own hands.”

Putin has cited the need to “denazify” Ukraine’s leadership as one of his main reasons for invasion, accusing it of genocide against Russian-speakers in eastern Ukraine. Kyiv and its Western allies dismiss the accusations as baseless propaganda.

Ukrainians voted overwhelmingly for independence at the fall of the Soviet Union and Kyiv hopes to join NATO and the EU – aspirations that infuriate Moscow.

Putin says Ukraine, a democratic nation of 44 million people, is an illegitimate state carved out of Russia, a view Ukrainians see as aimed at erasing their more than thousand-year history.

‘READY TO TALK’

Western countries have announced a barrage of sanctions on Russia, including blacklisting its banks and banning technology exports. But they have stopped short of forcing it out of the SWIFT system for international bank payments.

The United States imposed sanctions on Putin, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov. The European Union and Britain earlier froze any assets Putin and Lavrov held in their territory. Canada took similar steps.

The invasion triggered a flurry of credit rating moves on Friday, with S&P lowering Russia’s rating to “junk” status, Moody’s putting it on review for a downgrade to junk, and S&P and Fitch swiftly cutting Ukraine on default worries.

But amid the chaos of war came a ray of hope.

A spokesman for Zelenskiy said Ukraine and Russia would consult in coming hours on a time and place for talks.

The Kremlin said earlier it offered to meet in the Belarusian capital Minsk after Ukraine expressed a willingness to discuss declaring itself a neutral country while Ukraine had proposed Warsaw as the venue. That, according to Russian spokesman Dmitry Peskov, resulted in a “pause” in contacts.

“Ukraine was and remains ready to talk about a ceasefire and peace,” Zelenskiy’s spokesman, Sergii Nykyforov, said in a Facebook post. “We agreed to the proposal of the President of the Russian Federation.”

But U.S. State Department spokesman Ned Price said Russia’s offer was an attempt to conduct diplomacy “at the barrel of a gun” and Putin’s military must stop bombing Ukraine if it was serious about negotiations.

At the United Nations, Russia vetoed a draft Security Council resolution that would have deplored its invasion, while China abstained, which Western countries took as proof of Russia’s isolation. The United Arab Emirates and India also abstained while the remaining 11 members voted in favour.

The White House asked Congress for $6.4 billion in security and humanitarian aid for the crisis, officials said, and Biden instructed the U.S. State Department to release $350 million in military aid. (Source: Reuters)

25 Feb 22. With Activation of NATO Response Force, U.S. Military Ready to Provide Forces. In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg today announced activation of the alliance’s defense plans, which means also that it can deploy the NATO Defense Force. The U.S. Defense Department now stands ready to provide capabilities to help fill that defense force, if asked to do so, said Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby.

“There’s a historic nature to all this,” Kirby told reporters during a briefing at the Pentagon today. “This is the first time that the alliance has employed these high readiness forces in a deterrence and defense role. So it’s not an insignificant move by the alliance.”

The activation serves as a notice to NATO nations that they may be called upon to provide military support to the NATO mission, Kirby said. This also means the United States may be called upon to provide both personnel and equipment to support the NATO mission — and that’s something the U.S. and the department has been preparing to do for quite some time.

Kirby said what kinds of assistance NATO may request from the United States, or other alliance nations, is unknown at this time, as is what specific U.S. military units may end up being assigned to what roles.

Still, Kirby said, the U.S. has put as many as 12,000 service members on “prepare to deploy orders” so they will be ready if called upon to participate in the NATO Response Force. Some of those U.S. personnel may also be called upon to participate in any unilateral actions the U.S. may undertake.

“The department has placed a range of multi-mission units in the United States and Europe on a heightened preparedness to deploy, which increases our readiness to provide for the U.S. contributions to the NRF on a shorter tether than what we could do before,” Kirby said. “We stand ready if called upon by NATO to support the NRF in the defense of the alliance, and will absolutely do that.”

While President Biden has said U.S. troops will not enter Ukraine to participate directly in the fight against Russia, U.S. forces may eventually be called upon to participate in NATO-led missions as part of the NATO Response Force to bolster the defense of alliance partner nations should they ask for assistance.

“We’re going to do everything that we need to do to defend our country, and as the President has said, we’re going to do what we need to do to defend every inch of NATO territory — and we take those obligations seriously,” Kirby said.

At the same time, Kirby said, the U.S. continues to provide security assistance to Ukraine to help that country defend itself against an unlawful invasion by Russia.

“We’re continuing to look for ways to support Ukraine to defend themselves,” Kirby said. “We have continued to do that and we’re going to look to do that going forward. And we’re very actively engaged in those efforts, to help them better defend themselves through both lethal and non-lethal assistance.” (Source: US DoD)

25 Feb 22. Statement by NATO Heads of State and Government on Russia’s attack on Ukraine. We have met today to discuss the gravest threat to Euro-Atlantic security in decades. We condemn in the strongest possible terms Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, enabled by Belarus. We call on Russia to immediately cease its military assault, to withdraw all its forces from Ukraine and to turn back from the path of aggression it has chosen. This long-planned attack on Ukraine, an independent, peaceful and democratic country, is brutal and wholly unprovoked and unjustified. We deplore the tragic loss of life, enormous human suffering and destruction caused by Russia’s actions. Peace on the European continent has been fundamentally shattered. The world will hold Russia, as well as Belarus, accountable for their actions. We call on all states to condemn this unconscionable attack unreservedly. No one should be fooled by the Russian government’s barrage of lies.

Russia bears full responsibility for this conflict. It has rejected the path of diplomacy and dialogue repeatedly offered to it by NATO and Allies. It has fundamentally violated international law, including the UN Charter. Russia’s actions are also a flagrant rejection of the principles enshrined in the NATO-Russia Founding Act: it is Russia that has walked away from its commitments under the Act. President Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine is a terrible strategic mistake, for which Russia will pay a severe price, both economically and politically, for years to come. Massive and unprecedented sanctions have already been imposed on Russia. NATO will continue to coordinate closely with relevant stakeholders and other international organisations including the EU. At the invitation of the Secretary General, we were joined today by Finland, Sweden and the European Union.

We stand in full solidarity with the democratically elected president, parliament and government of Ukraine and with the brave people of Ukraine who are now defending their homeland. Our thoughts are with all those killed, injured and displaced by Russia’s aggression, and with their families. NATO remains committed to all the foundational principles underpinning European security, including that each nation has the right to choose its own security arrangements. We will continue to provide political and practical support to Ukraine as it continues to defend itself and call on others to do the same. We reaffirm our unwavering support for the independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine within its internationally recognised borders, including its territorial waters. This principled position will never change.

In light of Russia’s actions, we will draw all the necessary consequences for NATO’s deterrence and defence posture. Allies have held consultations under Article 4 of the Washington Treaty. We will continue to take all measures and decisions required to ensure the security and defence of all Allies. We have deployed defensive land and air forces in the eastern part of the Alliance, and maritime assets across the NATO area. We have activated NATO’s defence plans to prepare ourselves to respond to a range of contingencies and secure Alliance territory, including by drawing on our response forces. We are now making significant additional defensive deployments of forces to the eastern part of the Alliance. We will make all deployments necessary to ensure strong and credible deterrence and defence across the Alliance, now and in the future. Our measures are and remain preventive, proportionate and non-escalatory. Our commitment to Article 5 of the Washington Treaty is iron-clad. We stand united to protect and defend all Allies. Freedom will always win over oppression. (Source: NATO)

25 Feb 22. German company KMW offers to deliver 50 Flakpanzer Gepard anti-aircraft tanks to Ukraine. Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW) could supply 50 Gepard anti-aircraft tanks from its own stock to Ukraine. “The decision lies with the federal government,” said KMW CEO Ralf Ketzel in a Die Welt interview: “We have around 50 models of the Gepard type in our own stock, which could be made operational again relatively quickly.” The Flugabwehrkanonenpanzer Gepard (anti-aircraft cannon tank Cheetah, better known as the Flakpanzer Gepard) is an all-weather-capable German self-propelled anti-aircraft gun (SPAAG). It was developed in the 1960s and fielded in the 1970s, and has been upgraded several times with the latest electronics. It constituted a cornerstone of the air defense of the German Army (Bundeswehr) and a number of other NATO countries. In Germany, the Gepard was phased out in late 2010 and replaced by Wiesel 2 Ozelot Leichtes Flugabwehrsystem (LeFlaSys) with four FIM-92 Stinger or LFK NG missile launchers. The vehicle is based on the hull of the Leopard 1 tank with a large fully rotating turret carrying the armament—a pair of 35 mm Oerlikon KDA autocannons and the two radar dishes—a general search radar at the rear of the turret and the tracking radar, and a laser rangefinder, at the front between the guns. Each gun has a firing rate of 550 rounds/min, which gives a continuous fire time of 37 seconds before running out of ammo (with 680 rounds for both guns). The guns are 90 calibers (3.15 m (10 ft 4 in)) long, with a muzzle velocity of 1,440 m/s (4,700 ft/s) (FAPDS—Frangible Armour Piercing Discarding Sabot rounds), giving an effective range of 5,500 m. The KDA autocannon can take two different ammunition types; the usual loading is a mix of 320 AA and 20 AP rounds per gun. The combined rate of fire is 1,100 rounds/min. The electrically driven turret is powered by a 40 kW generator driven by a 4-cylinder, 3.8 liter Mercedes-Benz OM 314 multi-fuel engine. The Gepard could be used ideally for drone defense in the Russia-Ukraine war, says KMW CEO Ralf Ketzel. It would not be the first export of the model from KMW stocks. (Source: News Now/https://www.armyrecognition.com/)

24 Feb 22. South Africa releases defence budget. The South African defence budget for 2022/23 has marginally increased from the previous year’s adjusted allocation of ZAR48.79bn (USD3.3bn) to ZAR49.09 billion, according to figures released by the treasury on 23 February. The Medium Term Expenditure Framework plan will decrease to ZAR47.96 billion in 2023/24 and then a slight increase to ZAR49.27 in the following year. This means defence is expected to drop from 0.8% of GDP in 2021/2022 to 0.68% in 2024/2025. While the National Treasury intends to phase out the Special Defence Account, which is used to fund long-term acquisition projects, it has been increased from about ZAR1 billion to ZAR1.95bn in the current year and then ZAR1.89 billion and ZAR1.97 billion in the following two years. Those funds are primarily allocated to the navy’s current ship-building programmes and Defence Intelligence projects. (Source: Janes)

24 Feb 22. France dumps Aussies from ‘strategic partnership’ citing AUKUS sub deal. France’s new Indo-Pacific strategy takes another shot at Australia, as resentment over a failed submarine deal continues to linger. Angered by Australia’s rejection of its huge conventional sub deal, France has cast Australia out from its select group of strategic partners. The announcement was included deep inside France’s official Indo-Pacific Strategy, a high-level effort signed out by the French Foreign Minister and featuring a forward by French President Emmanuel Macron. Aside from the swipe at Australia, the document otherwise commits France to a course clearly parallel to that of the United States and other allies: firmly committed to ensuring freedom of the seas, adherence to international law and protection of economic interests such as fisheries and oil and gas reserves.

“Australia’s decision in September 2021, without prior consultation or warning, to break off the partnership of trust with France that included the Future Submarine Program (FSP), has led to a re‐evaluation of the past strategic partnership the two countries. France will pursue bilateral cooperation with Australia on a case‐by‐case basis, according to its national interests and those of regional partners,” reads the document.

Notably, while the AUKUS deal continues to damage the Franco-Australian relationship, the document shows that relations between Paris and Washington remain on good working terms.

“France intends to maintain close relations with the United States, an ally and major player in the Indo‐Pacific, and to strengthen coordination, including on issues raised by the announcement of the AUKUS agreement,” the 67-page document says.

France remains angered by Australia’s decision to abandon its submarine deal, one known as the “deal of the century” in Paris but which Australian officials had become disenchanted with in the five years since the deal was signed.

There were indication that Canberra was starting to get cold feet with the agreement in June last year, when Greg Moriarity, the top civilian in the Australian Defense Ministry, mentioned “alternatives” to the French deal during a Senate hearing. Macron sent a personal letter to Morrison.

Then, during an August meeting between the French and Aussie defense ministers, the two sides actually issued a statement in which they “underlined the importance of the Future Submarine Program.” Of course, a careful reading of that might have noted it did not include a commitment to the program. And just a month later came the surprise announcement of AUKUS, and the accompanying political fallout.

The French government took exceptional actions after Australia announced the $65 billion sub deal was peremptorily cancelled. The French foreign minister described it as a “stab in the back,” and France briefly recalled its ambassadors from Australia and the United States the next day.

While France doesn’t reject Australia as a key partner in the Indo-Pacific, the authors are clearly taking advantage of the new strategy to send one last rocket to remind Australia just how angry the French remain about cancellation of the sub contract.

The document serves as a capstone to a series of French commitments that started when Macron delivered speeches about the region in 2018 in Australia and New Caledonia. He committed France to working with countries committed to the liberal international political order that share other interests with France, particularly Australia, India and Japan. France maintains strategic partnerships with India, Japan, Indonesia, Singapore and Vietnam. (Source: Breaking Defense.com)

24 Feb 22. NATO Secretary General statement on Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine. I strongly condemn Russia’s reckless and unprovoked attack on Ukraine, which puts at risk countless civilian lives. Once again, despite our repeated warnings and tireless efforts to engage in diplomacy, Russia has chosen the path of aggression against a sovereign and independent country. This is a grave breach of international law, and a serious threat to Euro-Atlantic security. I call on Russia to cease its military action immediately and respect Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity. NATO Allies will meet to address the consequences of Russia’s aggressive actions. We stand with the people of Ukraine at this terrible time. NATO will do all it takes to protect and defend all Allies. (Source: NATO)

23 Feb 22. S. Korea test-fires missile interceptor a month after N.Korea launches -Yonhap. South Korea on Wednesday test-fired a long-range surface-to-air missile, Yonhap news agency reported, a month after North Korea tested a record number of increasingly powerful missiles potentially capable of evading defences in the South. An L-SAM was successfully launched from a testing site in Taean, 150 km (90 miles) southwest of the capital Seoul, Yonhap reported, citing unnamed sources. The Ministry of Defence declined to confirm the report. International tension has been rising over a recent series of North Korean ballistic missile tests. January was a record month for such tests, with at least seven launches, including a new type of “hypersonic missile” able to manoeuvre at high speed, making it potentially difficult to intercept. The L-SAM is a “cutting-edge indigenous weapon system” currently under development to defend against missiles or other high-flying threats, according to South Korea’s Agency for Defence Development. Plans call for it to target incoming missiles at altitudes of around 50-60 kilometres (30-37 miles), and it is due to become operational by 2026. Yonhap said Wednesday’s test raised the prospect that its deployment could be accelerated. The L-SAM is designed to be part of a “layered defence network” that already includes U.S.-made Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles and locally produced Cheongung II KM-SAM medium-range weapons, capable of intercepting targets at varying altitudes and ranges. South Korea also hosts U.S. military THAAD anti-missile batteries. The leading conservative candidate in next month’s presidential election has vowed to purchase a THAAD interceptor battery to deploy nearer to Seoul, even if it brings retaliation from China, which has complained that the equipment’s powerful radar could penetrate its territory. Seoul plans to produce a $2.6 billion artillery interception system, similar to Israel’s “Iron Dome”, designed to protect against North Korea’s arsenal of long-range guns and rockets. Seoul is looking as well into exporting some of its latest missile interceptors. It inked its largest defence sale ever in January with the export of KM-SAM to the United Arab Emirates in a deal valued at around $3.5bn. (Source: Reuters)

24 Feb 22. Russian forces invade Ukraine with strikes on major cities. Reuters reported this morning that Russian forces fired missiles at several cities in Ukraine and landed troops on its coast on Thursday, officials and media said, after President Vladimir Putin authorised what he called a special military operation in the east. Shortly after Putin spoke in a televised address on Russian state TV, explosions could be heard in the pre-dawn quiet of the Ukrainian capital of Kyiv. Gunfire rattled near the capital’s main airport, the Interfax news agency said, and sirens were heard over the city.

“Putin has just launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Peaceful Ukrainian cities are under strikes,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Twitter.

“This is a war of aggression. Ukraine will defend itself and will win. The world can and must stop Putin. The time to act is now.”

U.S. President Joe Biden, reacting to an invasion the United States had been predicting for weeks, said his prayers were with the people of Ukraine “as they suffer an unprovoked and unjustified attack”, while promising tough sanctions in response.

“I will be meeting with the leaders of the G7, and the United States and our allies and partners will be imposing severe sanctions on Russia,” Biden said in a statement.

Russia has demanded an end to NATO’s eastward expansion and Putin repeated his position that Ukrainian membership of the U.S.-led Atlantic military alliance was unacceptable.

He said he had authorised military action after Russia had been left with no choice but to defend itself against what he said were threats emanating from modern Ukraine, a democratic state of 44 million people.

“Russia cannot feel safe, develop, and exist with a constant threat emanating from the territory of modern Ukraine,” Putin said. “All responsibility for bloodshed will be on the conscience of the ruling regime in Ukraine.”

The full scope of the Russian military operation was not immediately clear but Putin said: “Our plans do not include the occupation of Ukrainian territories. We are not going to impose anything by force.”

Speaking as the U.N. Security Council held an emergency meeting in New York, Putin said he had ordered Russian forces to protect the people and appealed to the Ukrainian military to lay down their arms.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said Russia had carried out missile strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure and border guards, and that explosions had been heard in many cities. An official also reported non-stop cyber attacks.

Zelenskiy said that martial law had been declared and that he had spoken by telephone to Biden. Reservists were called up on Wednesday. Three hours after Putin gave his order, Russia’s defence ministry said it had taken out military infrastructure at Ukrainian air bases and degraded its air defences, Russian media reported. (Source: Reuters)

23 Feb 22. South Africa increasing Mozambique deployment. South Africa has begun to deploy a combat group to Cabo Delgado Province in northern Mozambique as part of the regional military mission, a senior South African National Defence Force source has confirmed to Janes.

The combat group that is being contributed to the Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) will comprise the motorised 2 South African Infantry Battalion reinforced with a company and pathfinder teams from 1 Parachute Battalion and tactical intelligence teams. At the same time, a Special Forces Group from 4 Special Forces Regiment will relieve the one from 5 Special Forces Regiment that has been deployed since July 2021. The navy may deploy one of its frigates for interdiction patrols off the coast of Cabo Delgado together with elements of the Maritime Reaction Squadron, which is trained for boarding and minor beach operations. It is unclear if this will carry a Super Lynx helicopter, none of which are currently operational. (Source: Janes)

22 Feb 22. America ‘Unwavering’ in Support for Ukraine, Austin Says. During a meeting in the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III told Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba that American support for Ukraine’s self-defense, sovereignty and territorial integrity is “unwavering.” The foreign minister met with Austin as Russia moved forces into the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. More than 150,000 Russian troops almost surround Ukraine.

Austin told Kuleba that Russia’s latest invasion not only threatens Ukraine but the peace, security and prosperity of the Trans-Atlantic community. The Russian occupation of the Donbas region “violates international law, and Russia’s own international commitments, and it directly undermines Ukraine sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the secretary said.

The United States and its allies and partners are responding to President Vladimir Putin’s orders, he said.

Russia first moved into Ukraine in 2014, occupying Crimea and fomenting violence in the Donbas region. Since then, the United States has committed more than $2.7 billion in assistance to Ukraine including $650 million in 2021 alone.

The secretary commended Ukraine for its restraint in the face of Russia’s invasion. “I … commend you for Ukraine’s measured response, and for continuing your nation’s call for a peaceful diplomatic solution, in the face of Russia’s aggression, provocations and false accusations,” he said. “We will continue to work closely with you and remain in lockstep with our allies and partners in trying to find a way to avoid further conflict. Mr. Putin can still avoid a full-blown tragic war of choice.”

Kuleba told Austin that since his country’s independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, the United States has been Ukraine’s security partner number one. He thanked the secretary for the defensive weapons and the training the Ukrainian military has received from the United States and from American service members.

“I’m on a diplomatic mission here,” the foreign minister said. “But these days diplomacy means also defense. We are not seeking a war. We want to find solutions through diplomacy. But if the war is imposed on us by President Putin, we will be defending ourselves and we will be more than grateful for all the assistance that you can provide to us.” (Source: US DoD)

22 Feb 22. China sanctions Raytheon, Lockheed over Taiwan deal. China said Monday it will impose new sanctions on U.S. defense contractors Raytheon Technologies and Lockheed Martin due to their arms sales to Taiwan, stepping up a feud with Washington over security and Beijing’s strategic ambitions.

Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesperson Wang Wenbin announced the move at a daily press briefing, citing a newly passed Anti-Foreign Sanctions Law that took effect in 2021. It was in response to a $100 million deal approved by the U.S. for maintenance of Taiwan’s missile defense systems by the two companies.

“China once again urges the U.S. government and relevant parties to … stop arms sales to Taiwan and sever military ties with Taiwan,” Wang said.

“China will continue to take all necessary measures to firmly safeguard its sovereignty and security interests in accordance with the development of the situation,” he said without giving any details.

Taiwan is a democratically self-governed island that communist-ruled China claims as its own territory. The two sides split amid civil war in 1949.

The U.S. has no formal relations with Taiwan but is its main ally. It has increased weapons sales in recent years, angering China with the sales. U.S. law requires the government to ensure Taiwan can defend itself.

Beijing regularly pressures American companies to try to influence U.S. policy.

In October 2020, Beijing also announced sanctions against Raytheon and other defense contractors and “relevant American individuals.” A day later, the U.S. State Department said it had notified Congress of plans for a $2.37bn sale of Harpoon attack missiles to Taiwan.

It’s unclear what penalties, if any, were imposed. U.S. weapons or military aircraft sales to Taiwan in 2010, 2015 and 2019 drew similar threats of sanctions.

China maintains that U.S. arms sale to Taiwan violates its so-called One China policy and provisions of agreements between Beijing and Washington.

Tensions over Taiwan have been mounting as Beijing has stepped up military activity around the island to try to force concessions from the pro-independence administration of President Tsai Ing-wen. The Communist Party also is using the Chinese mainland’s growing economic weight to pressure other governments to cut diplomatic and unofficial ties with Taiwan.

Raytheon, Boeing, Lockheed and other defense industry giants face controls on sales to China of military and dual-use technologies that have both defense and commercial applications. But they also have major civilian businesses, and China is a huge market for aviation, among other industries. (Source: Defense News)

21 Feb 22. Singapore announces 6.5% increase in 2022 defence budget. Singapore has announced a 2022 defence budget of SGD16.36bn (USD12.16bn), a nominal increase of SGD1bn or 6.5% over the allocation in 2021. The 2022 allocation includes SGD15.76bn for operations, with SGD15.71 billion of this funding appropriated for “military expenditure”. This represents a year-on-year increase of 6.5%. The remainder of spending, SGD600.7m, is appropriated for development expenditure, an increase of 7.7% compared with 2021. According to the government, military expenditure includes payments for the purchase of military equipment, its maintenance, and military salaries. It said funding for development expenditure increased because of higher construction requirements, including projects previously delayed by the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic. The government provided no additional details about its defence spending plans in 2022. (Source: Janes)

22 Feb 22. Russia facing new sanctions after Putin recognises breakaway regions.

Summary
White House says fresh sanctions to be announced Tuesday
Ukraine says two soldiers killed in shelling
Unmarked tanks seen in breakaway capital Donetsk
Global markets rattled, oil hits 7-year high

The United States and its European allies are poised to announce harsh new sanctions against Russia on Tuesday after President Vladimir Putin formally recognised two breakaway regions in eastern Ukraine, escalating a security crisis on the continent.

The Ukrainian military said two soldiers were killed and 12 wounded in shelling by pro-Russian separatists in the east in the past 24 hours, the most casualties this year, as ceasefire violations increased.

Putin’s announcement on Monday drew international condemnation and immediate U.S. sanctions, with President Joe Biden signing an executive order to halt U.S. business activity in the breakaway regions.

France and Germany also agreed to respond with sanctions, and Britain and the United States said they would announce further measures on Tuesday.

“The United States will impose sanctions on Russia for this clear violation of international law and Ukraine sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Linda Thomas-Greenfield, U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, told reporters after an emergency meeting of the Security Council late on Monday.

“We can, will, and must stand united in our calls for Russia to withdraw its forces, return to the diplomatic table and work toward peace.”

Britain said it had drawn up sanctions to target those complicit in the violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity, and those measures would come into force on Tuesday.

China called for all parties to exercise restraint while Japan said it was ready to join international sanctions on Moscow in the event of a full-scale invasion.

The Russian U.N. ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, warned Western powers to “think twice” and not worsen the situation.

A Reuters witness saw tanks and other military hardware moving through the separatist-controlled city of Donetsk on Monday hours after Putin formally recognised the breakaway regions and ordered the deployment of Russian forces to “keep the peace”. No insignia were visible on the vehicles.

Ukraine’s military said on its Facebook page it had recorded 84 cases of shelling by separatists who it said had opened fire on about 40 settlements along the front line with heavy artillery, in breach of ceasefire agreements.

Russia denies any plan to attack its neighbour, but it has amassed troops on Ukraine’s borders and threatened “military-technical” action unless it receives sweeping security guarantees, including a promise that Ukraine will never join NATO.

A senior U.S. official said the deployment of Russian troops to the breakaway enclaves did not merit the harshest sanctions the United States and its allies had prepared in the event of a full-scale invasion, as Russia already had troops there.

Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions – collectively known as the Donbass – broke away from Ukrainian government control in 2014 and proclaimed themselves independent “people’s republics”.

Russia needed to ratify its friendship treaties with the two breakaway regions before it could discuss matters like the exact borders of the territories, RIA news agency reported, citing the foreign ministry. Russia’s parliament is expected to review friendship treaties on Tuesday.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who received a call from Biden to express solidarity on Monday, accused Russia of wrecking peace talks and ruled out territorial concessions.

Rising fears of a major war in Europe pushed oil prices to a seven-year high on Tuesday, while safe-havens currencies like the yen rallied and global stocks tumbled. read more The rouble extended its losses as Putin spoke, at one point sliding beyond 80 per dollar.

GRIEVANCES

In a lengthy televised address on Monday packed with grievances against the West, a visibly angry Putin said eastern Ukraine was ancient Russian land.

Putin delved into history as far back as the Ottoman empire and expressed frustration that Russia’s demands for a rewriting of Europe’s security arrangements had been repeatedly rebuffed.

“I deem it necessary to make a decision that should have been made a long time ago – to immediately recognise the independence and sovereignty of the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Lugansk People’s Republic,” Putin said.

Putin has for years worked to restore Russia’s influence over nations that emerged after the collapse of the Soviet Union, with Ukraine holding an important place in his ambitions. Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.

A French presidential official said the speech “mixed various considerations of a rigid and paranoid nature”. (Source: Reuters)

20 Feb 22. Canada delivered light weapons to Ukrainian Army. The Royal Canadian Air Force military aircraft delivered light infantry weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Canada handed over to Ukraine sniper rifles, automatic rifles, machine guns with optical sights, pistols.

In addition, Ukraine has received night vision, surveillance devices and military equipment.

“Thank our partners and friends for this important and timely decision! Special gratitude to the Minister of National Defense Anita Anand for her strong position on supporting Ukraine,” the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksii Reznikov said.

Ukraine continues cooperation with Canadian partners.

The military aid was sent to counter the aggression of the Russian Federation.

“We expect the arrival of other flights from Canada with defense weapons,” Deputy Minister of Defense of Ukraine Rostyslav Zamlinsky said.

Colonel Robert Foster, Defense Attaché at the Canadian Embassy in Ukraine, and Lieutenant General Pavlo Tkachuk, head of the Hetman Petro Sahaidachnyi National Ground Forces Academy, also met the plane with military assistance at the airport.

The cargo was delivered within the framework of the Technical Agreement between the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine and the Department of National Defense and the Armed Forces of Canada regarding military trainings in Ukraine.

It is the second aircraft of the Royal Canadian Air Force to arrive in Ukraine with military aid on board. The first arrived in early February. It is stated that Canada’s support to the Armed Forces of Ukraine will not stop. It is expected several more flights soon. (Source: News Now/https://mil.in.ua/en)

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