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07 Jan 22. Kazakhstan revolt adds new variable to Russia’s plans for Ukraine. Already, Russian military forces have been deployed to Kazakhstan. If greater numbers are needed, it would likely impact any plans Vladimir Putin has for Ukraine.
For the last month, the world has been focused on Russia’s military buildup along its border with Ukraine, wondering if — or when — a full-scale invasion will be ordered by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
But a new, chaotic element has been thrown into the mix, one which could require Russia to abandon any plans for a military invasion of Ukraine in order to deal with another crisis amongst its old vassal states: Kazakhstan.
In the last two weeks, protests over a hike in fuel prices have been amplified into an open public revolt over a much broader set of grievances. Clashes with security forces had resulted in dozens of demonstrators killed, and on Jan. 5, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev requested security assistance from Moscow to help him try and stay in power.
The Kazakh leader has dismissed the legitimacy of any of the demonstrations, stating that “all demands have made in a peaceful form have been heard,” and characterized those remaining on the streets as “20,000 bandits.” When confronted with calls for his government to hold talks with the protest movement his unrepentant response was “What idiocy. What kind of negotiations can you have with criminals? We were dealing with armed and well-prepared bandits, both local and foreign. Bandits and terrorists, who should be destroyed. This will happen in the nearest time.”
And the morning of Jan. 7, Tojayev’s regime began to show signs of desperation — with the president giving a direct order for his security forces and military units to “open fire with lethal force” and without warning against crowds of protestors. The embattled Kazakh leader has continued to label the protestors “bandits and terrorists” and declared that lethal force against them would continue to be used without any warning.
Putin’s Nightmare
The protests in Kazakhstan are the nightmare that the Putin regime fears more than any other threat to its power — a potential repeat of the “color revolutions” that forced pro-Russian governments out of power in Georgia and Ukraine and precipitated the Russian invasion of Crimea, the ongoing “little green men” action in the Donbas, and, indirectly, the current military buildup on the Ukraine border.
How concerned is Russia about seeing a repeat for 2014? This past year’s Zapad-2021 joint exercise between Russia and Belarus was preceded by a separate exercise between the Rosgvardia (Russia’s heavily armed National Guard) and special operations troops belonging to the Federal Security Service (FSB). These were a set of maneuvers specifically ordered to prepare to suppress any internal revolt before it can spread to multiple cities — as is now happening in Kazakhstan.
Kazakhstan was ruled for nearly three decades by a former Communist Party boss, Nursultan Nazarbayev, who stepped down from the presidency in 2019, but retained a seat on the nation’s powerful security council. In an attempted to quell protestors, his hand-picked successor and now president, Tokayev, removed Nazarbayev from his position on Jan. 5, while firing other relatives of the former president from powerful posts on the same day. But these changes are seen as too little, too late at this point.
There are multiple concerns for Putin in Kazakhstan. The first, and most immediate, is the speed and ferocity with which the protests have unfolded. Kazakhstan was once thought of as a stable, reliable neighbor — just as Belarus once was before the revolution of 2020 broke out. The Putin regime is likely concerned that domestic unrest in Kazakhstan could jump elsewhere, perhaps even spreading into Russia itself.
“That two post-Soviet states with similarly authoritarian government structures could experience such instability suggests that Russia should at all costs avoid anything that could spark such developments at home,” wrote Russian analyst Andrey Gurkov, in an op-ed for the German-language Deutsche Welle news service. “The fact that thousands of frustrated Kazakhs are now venting their anger should be a warning to the Kremlin. It should compel Russia to consider the domestic implications of a threatened or alleged military operation with which it is currently trying to intimidate the US and NATO.”
There are financial concerns as well. For one, Kazakhstan has been a reliable defense-industrial ally of Moscow, with the country’s armed forces treating Russia as the preferred supplier for its more advanced weapon systems.
Aside from having significant oil and gas reserves and being a member of the OPEC+ alliance, Kazakhstan also produces 40 per cent of the world’s uranium. It supplies numerous nations, including both the US, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and, yes, Russia. Mining operations in Kazakhstan are reported to keep six to seven months’ worth of uranium deliveries in inventory, so no major price spike is anticipated in the near term, but this could all change if the protests continue indefinitely.
Then there is the Baikonur Cosmodrome that was the USSR’s primary space launch facility. Russia has leased its access to the facility through 2050, but that site is rated as secure only as long as the government of Kazakhstan remains pro-Russian. The Cosmodrome is also not the only part of Kazakhstan that is vital to the Russian space program; the steppes to the northeast of Baikonur towards Karaganda are the landing site for Soyuz spacecraft re-entering from the International Space Station. Losing access to these facilities would be a major blow to Russia’s ability to access orbit.
Military Intervention — How Much for How Long
So far, media reports have shown a total force of 2,500 troops from the alliance of ex-Soviet Republics known as the Collective Security Treaty Organisation – with 90 percent of the personnel from Russia – being flown into the capital, Nur-Sultan, as well as its largest city, Almaty. Elite Russian airborne units were sent in to re-capture the international airport in Almaty, which was reported as under their control on Friday morning.
A few small units does not seem likely to help quell the full-scale rebellion that is spreading across the country. That means the question now facing Putin is whether to pull significant military forces away from elsewhere – including, most likely, the Ukrainian border – in order to help out its political partner, or to risk letting Kazakhstan look like a repeat of Ukraine in 2014. If Russian units begin killing Kazakj protestors – troops from what is now a foreign country – “that will not look great for Moscow” tweeted Russian specialist Timothy Garton Ash from London.
However, one political analyst in Moscow told Breaking Defense that the nature of the protests, which are dispersed across cities with little coordination, means a strong military presence may be able to quell the unrest fairly quickly.
“The protest seem to be localized and since the Kazakh government has shut down the internet and mobile networks there is very little chance of the different uprisings being able to overcome both Kazakh and Russian armed forces,” the analyst said.
“The protests could be over as soon as two weeks. But the aftereffects and resentment could last much longer” — and with them, continued destabilization that could provide a distraction for Putin’s government.
That calculus also gets muddied by the specter of Russian forces being killed in any Kazakh operations, which could send Putin’s approval at home plummeting.
That fear was already prevalent with the Ukraine situation; one Russian defence industry official recently told Breaking Defense that “with these many and growing pressures on the regime, the last addition to this list that Putin needs is a steady parade of body bags coming home from the battlefields in Ukraine. Russian families have lost more than most of those outside of the country can imagine — adding the loss of their sons in a war with Ukraine that has dubious justification could be a tipping point.”
Should troops be seriously harmed, or killed, while attempting to regain control in Kazakhstan, it would create massive pressure on Putin not to launch operations into Ukraine — operations which are guaranteed to come with a high body count, as the Ukrainian military, while not a match for Russian forces head-to-head, is a much stronger foe than the civilian population of Kazakhstan.
Writing for the Atlantic Council, former US Ambassador to both Ukraine and Uzbekistan, John Herbst, commented on Thursday “if the initial CSTO deployment fails, Putin may face a dilemma. Moscow’s pre-buildup situation in Ukraine was a stalemate; in Kazakhstan, Moscow’s position in Central Asia would deteriorate if a popular revolt produces a reform-minded government, or if Tokayev calls on China and the [Shanghai Cooperation Organization] for help to stay in power. The question then becomes: Would Putin pull troops from Ukraine’s border to deal with disorder in Kazakhstan and enhance Russia’s standing in Central Asia? Doing so certainly entails less risk than launching a major conventional military offensive in Ukraine.”
Talks scheduled for Jan. 9-10 between the US and Russia in Geneva to discuss the Ukraine situation will remain unaffected by the unrest in Kazakhstan for now. In Ukraine, however, analysts looking at the situation predict that Russia will now be constrained in its actions against over concerns about stability in Kazakhstan, but in the other former Soviet Central Asian Republics as well.
Another potential wildcard is that two other nations that are competitors for influence in Kazakhstan — Turkey and the PRC — as well as the US could move in if Tokayev’s government falls and a power vacuum emerges. This all detracts from the time and resources Putin has to bring to bear on Ukraine, as well as raises questions about his own system of rule.
Already, pressure is building inside Russia on the situation.
Echo Moskvy, one of the only media outlets in Russia not completely under state control, has been surprisingly critical (given that they are based in the Russian capitol) of both the Kazakh and Russian governments — as well as what it could mean for Putin’s rule. Kazakhstan showcases the typical failings of post-Soviet autocracies, says the outlet, stating “there is no such thing as eternal love or eternal patience.”
“A leader can be popular with the people — and for a very long time — but he inevitably becomes surrounded by a system of thousands of parasites, good-for-nothings, careerists and crooks who start to view the country as their property and the people as their servants. … Soviet people — and in a way that’s what we all still are — are very patient, tough and humble,” the editors wrote in an opinion piece.
“But even among Soviet people, this reservoir of patience is not unlimited. Nazarbayev came to power five years earlier than [Belarus President] Lukashenka and ten years before Putin. Now we can calculate how much time the two have left.” (Source: Breaking Defense.com)
07 Jan 22. RoK casts doubts on North Korea’s ‘hypersonic missile’ claims. South Korean military officials cast doubts on Friday on the capabilities of what North Korea called a “hypersonic missile” test fired this week, saying it appeared to represent limited progress over Pyongyang’s existing ballistic missiles. On Wednesday, North Korea launched what its state media said was the country’s second hypersonic missile, which are usually defined as weapons that reach speeds of at least five times the speed of sound – or about 6,200 kms per hour (3,850 mph) – and can manoeuvre at relatively low trajectories, making them much harder to detect and intercept.
While the missile’s warhead appeared to reach hypersonic speeds, that capability is shared by other ballistic missiles and Wednesday’s test did not appear to demonstrate the range and manoeuvrability claimed in state media reports, a South Korean military official told reporters.
South Korea assessed that it flew for less than the 700 km (435 miles) claimed by North Korea and showed less than the “lateral” manoeuvrability reported, the official added.
Wednesday’s warhead featured a more conical shape than the first claimed North Korean hypersonic missile tested in September, which was glider-like.
“This is neither a hypersonic glide vehicle nor a hypersonic cruise missile, this is a missile with a mobile warhead,” the official said of the newest missile, which was first unveiled at a Pyongyang defence exhibition in October.
The assessment mirrors that of international analysts who noted that the test appeared to involve a liquid-fuel ballistic missile with a Manoeuvrable Reentry Vehicle (MaRV), a capability previously fielded by other countries including the United States and South Korea.
“One of my complaints about the ‘hypersonic’ framing is that it wrongly emphasizes speed when what we really are discussing is manoeuvrability and accuracy,” Jeffrey Lewis, a missile researcher at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies (CNS), said on Twitter. “So, yeah, the new (North Korea) glider is hypersonic. But more importantly, it’s a MaRV.”
While such missiles don’t have the range of North Korea’s largest intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), analysts say manoeuvrable weapons can be used to evade missile defences. On Friday the United States and Japan issued a joint statement pledging to increase joint defence, including against hypersonic weapons. (Source: Reuters)
07 Jan 22. West must stand up to Russia in Kazakhstan, dissident former banker says. A self-styled Kazakh opposition leader on Friday urged the West to get involved in the Central Asian republic, saying that otherwise Russia would bring it to heel in a type of restored Soviet Union.
Protests that began as a response to a fuel price rise swelled this week into a broad movement against Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s paramount leader since Soviet times.
President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, Nazarbayev’s hand-picked successor, has called in forces from ally Russia as part of a Moscow-led alliance known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).
Mukhtar Ablyazov, a former banker and government minister who is leader of an opposition movement called Democratic Choice of Kazakhstan, said the West needed to enter the fray.
“If not, then Kazakhstan will turn into Belarus and [Russian President Vladimir] Putin will methodically impose his programme – the recreation of a structure like the Soviet Union,” Ablyazov told Reuters from Paris in Russian.
“Kazakhstan is now in geopolitical play,” he said. “Russia has already entered, sent in troops. CSTO is Russia. This is an occupation by Russia.”
Wanted at home for fraud and embezzlement, Ablyazov lives in France where he has been granted refugee status. He has dismissed all the charges against him in Russia and Kazakhstan as politically motivated.
Ablyazov cast himself as the leader of the opposition protests and said he was consulted every day on tactics on the ground in Almaty.
“I see myself as the leader of the opposition,” he said. . “Every day the protesters call me and ask: ‘What should we do? We are standing here: What should we do?'”
He said he was ready to fly into Kazakhstan to head a provisional government if the protests escalated and said his activists were awaiting him.
“The West should tear Kazakhstan away from Russia,” he said. “The West must help so that Putin cannot occupy this country, the West must help civil society elect its leaders so that the country can choose its path, a democratic path like in the West.”
(Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
06 Jan 22. Kazakhstan unrest latest updates: Russia-led troops arrive. Dozens of people, including citizens and police officers, have been killed as protests continue to rage in Kazakhstan, the worst street unrest since the country gained independence 30 years ago. Thousands have reportedly been arrested in Almaty and of the hundreds injured, at least 60 are in intensive care. The protests began over the weekend, triggered by rising fuel prices, but have since morphed into anti-government riots, feeding off resentment of more than three decades of rule by ex-President Nursultan Nazarbayev. In response, Nazarbayev’s handpicked successor, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, has sacked the country’s government and declared a nationwide two-week state of emergency. He also invited troops from a Russian-headed military alliance of former Soviet states into Kazakhstan to restore order. (Source: https://www.aljazeera.com/)
06 Jan 22. Ukraine: Foreign Secretary statement. The Foreign Secretary gave a statement to the House today on the situation with Ukraine and Russia.
Before I start, I would like to welcome the Rt Hon Gentleman to his new role, and my Hon Friend to his new position as the Minister for Europe.
I want to update the House on what we are doing to tackle Russia’s aggression towards Ukraine.
In December I set out how, together with our allies, we will build a Network of Liberty to ensure that democracy doesn’t just survive, it thrives.
And of course, as a free, democratic country in Europe, Ukraine is a crucial priority.
30 years ago, Britain was one of the first countries to recognise Ukraine’s independence.
Today our commitment to Ukraine is unwavering. We stand with our friend against hostile actors.
We will defend democracy at the frontier of freedom in Eastern Europe, and around the world.
Britain and its allies made this clear at NATO in November, and at the G7 which I hosted in Liverpool last month.
Any Russian military incursion into Ukraine would be a massive strategic mistake and would come at a severe cost.
We will not accept the campaign Russia is waging to subvert its democratic neighbours.
It is accompanied by baseless rhetoric and disinformation. They falsely cast Ukraine as a threat to justify their aggressive stance. They falsely accuse NATO of provocation.
This could not be further from the truth.
Ukraine’s restraint has been commendable and NATO has always been a defensive alliance.
Russia is the aggressor here. They have massed a huge number of troops along the Ukrainian border and in illegally-annexed Crimea.
There is no justification whatsoever for Russia’s bellicose stance towards Ukraine. It is unprovoked. It is part of a wider pattern of behaviour by the Kremlin, reliant on disinformation and mistrust to seek to gain the upper hand.
Moscow has run a long campaign to subvert freedom and democracy in Ukraine, from the invasion of 2014 to cyberattacks, disinformation and the weaponisation of energy supplies.
At the same time, they are backing the repressive actions of the Lukashenko regime in Belarus… sowing the seeds of discord in the Western Balkans… and threatening our friends in the Baltic.
I urge Russia to end its malign activity and stick to what has been agreed.
That means the 1975 Helsinki Final Act, where Russia signed up to dispute resolution by dialogue rather than force.
It means the 1994 Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances, where Russia agreed to uphold Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Ukraine gave up its nuclear weapons in exchange for this security guarantee.
And it means the 2014 Minsk Protocol, where all parties agreed to a ceasefire in the Donbas region. These agreements based on the principles of freedom, democracy and the rule of law must be upheld.
The free world must rise to meet the moment. Britain is stepping up and leading by example.
I have spoken out against Russian aggression at the OSCE and NATO, and bilaterally with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov.
Last month I chaired a meeting of the G7 Foreign Ministers in Liverpool. We called on Russia to de-escalate, pursue diplomatic channels and abide by its commitments on the transparency of military activities.
We made clear that any further military incursion into Ukraine would bring massive consequences, including coordinated sanctions to impose a severe cost on Russia’s interests and economy.
The UK is working with our partners on these sanctions, including high-impact measures targeting the Russian financial sector and individuals.
We are also providing crucial economic and security support to Ukraine.
I am working closely with Foreign Minister Kuleba. I spoke to him on Tuesday, and last month I welcomed him to London for high-level talks.
We are continuing to help Ukraine strengthen its defences with joint exercises, maritime support and by training over 20,000 members of its army, with more to come.
We are ramping up support for trade in priority industries like technology and clean energy to £3.5bn. This includes £1.7bn to boost Ukraine’s naval capability.
I look forward to visiting Kyiv later this month.
We are also supporting stability in the Western Balkans, where the Prime Minister has appointed Sir Stuart Peach as Special Envoy.
In Belarus, we were the first European country to put sanctions on the Lukashenko regime, and we were also the first to send in engineers to assist Poland.
The next week will be absolutely critical for peace and security in Europe.
Tomorrow I will join an extraordinary meeting of NATO foreign ministers. The US-Russia dialogue begins on Sunday, followed by the NATO-Russia Council on Wednesday and the OSCE Permanent Council on Thursday. We will be talking on the basis of freedom, democracy and the rule of law.
It is vital that NATO is united in pushing back against Russia’s threatening behaviour.
Together we must hold Russia to its longstanding obligations. There can be no rewards for aggression.
Finally, Europe must reduce its dependence on Russian gas. Britain remains opposed to Nord Stream 2. I am working with allies and partners to highlight the strategic risks of this project.
We are reaching a crucial moment. The only way forward is for Russia to deescalate and pursue a path of diplomacy.
We will continue to stand together with our allies, steadfast in support of Ukraine and its future as a free and sovereign democracy.
I commend this statement to the House. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
06 Jan 22. Australia-Japan RAA signed: defence forces to operate together ‘seamlessly.’ Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Fumio Kishida signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement today, ensuring “Australia’s Defence Forces and Japanese forces can act and operate together seamlessly.”
Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Fumio Kishida have signed the Reciprocal Access Agreement in a virtual meeting today, with the RAA scheduled to deepen the military ties between the two nations via greater defence and security cooperation.
“Prime Minister [Fumio Kishida], today we demonstrate the strength of our bonds as we sign our Reciprocal Access Agreement, the first of its kind for Japan,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison said during the signing ceremony.
“The RAA is a landmark treaty which opens a new chapter for advanced defence and security cooperation, in what is a complex and rapidly changing world, something you and I both understand very well.”
The agreement is designed to support the ongoing challenges faced by both Australia and Japan in the Indo-Pacific and ensure the preservation of the international rules-based order.
The Prime Minister’s Office has confirmed that the Australia-Japan RAA will result in further joint military exercises, humanitarian assistance missions and maritime domain awareness.
“The Australia-Japan RAA will establish standing arrangements for the Australian Defence Force and the Japan Self-Defense Forces to facilitate cooperative activities such as joint exercises and disaster relief operations, including those of greater scale and complexity, while improving the interoperability and capability of the two countries’ forces,” a release from the Prime Minister’s Office read.
“The two leaders confirmed the importance of promoting cooperation between the Japan Coast Guard and Australia’s Department of Home Affairs, including to facilitate information-sharing and cooperation on maritime domain awareness.”
Throughout the meeting, the leaders also discussed a raft of other measures including kick-starting the hydrogen energy industry with $150m government in government investments.
“And today I’m delighted to announce a $150m AUD investment in clean hydrogen energy supply chain projects under the Japan-Australia Partnership on Decarbonisation through Technology,” PM Scott Morrison continued.
“This will accelerate the development of an Australian export hydrogen industry which can be a supplier of choice for Japan and the region.”
The meeting between the two was scheduled to take place in person, however, was moved online due to growth in Australia’s COVID cases.
(Source: Defence Connect)
05 Jan 22. North Korea fires missile as S. Korea breaks ground for ‘peace’ railway. North Korea fired what the United States said was a ballistic missile on Wednesday, just hours before South Korean President Moon Jae-in attended a groundbreaking ceremony for a rail line he hopes will eventually connect the divided Korean peninsula.
Nuclear-armed North Korea’s first test launch since October underscored leader Kim Jong Un’s New Year vow to bolster the military to counter an unstable international situation amid stalled talks with South Korea and the United States.
The U.S. Indo-Pacific Command called it a ballistic missile launch and the U.S. State Department condemned, it while repeating calls for renewed dialogue with North Korea.
“This launch is in violation of multiple U.N. Security Council Resolutions and poses a threat to the DPRK’s neighbours and the international community,” a State Department spokesperson using the initials of North Korea’s official name.
The launch took place at 8:10 a.m. (2310 GMT) from an east coast inland location into the sea, South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) said. Japan’s defence minister said the suspected ballistic missile had flown an estimated 500km (310 miles). read more
Hours later, Moon visited the South Korean east coast city of Goseong, near the border with North Korea, where he broke ground for a new rail line that he called “a stepping stone for peace and regional balance” on the Korean peninsula.
Moon acknowledged the launch raised concerns of tensions, and called for North Korea to make sincere efforts for dialogue.
“We should not give up the hope for dialogue in order to fundamentally overcome this situation,” he said. “If both Koreas work together and build trust, peace would be achieved one day.”
Moon, who has led unprecedented efforts to engage with North Korea, has stuck to what many analysts see as a forlorn hope for a diplomatic breakthrough before his five-year term ends in May.
Reconnecting the two Koreas by rail was a central issue in meetings between Kim and Moon in 2018, but the efforts went nowhere as talks aimed at convincing North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons in exchange for easing international sanctions faltered in 2019.
Kim’s New Year speech made no mention of efforts by South Korea to restart negotiations or U.S. calls for dialogue.
‘VERY REGRETTABLE’
South Korea’s National Security Council convened an emergency meeting, expressing concern that the launch “came at a time when internal and external stability is extremely important” and calling on North Korea to return to talks.
The missile was fired from Jagang Province on North Korea’s northern border with China, South Korea’s JCS said, the same province where North Korea tested its first hypersonic missile in September.
“Our military is maintaining readiness posture in preparation for a possible additional launch while closely monitoring the situation in close cooperation with the United States,” the JCS said.
Speaking to reporters, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called North Korea’s repeated missile launches since last year “very regrettable.”
The latest launch comes ahead of talks between the U.S. and Japanese foreign and defence ministers on Friday. read more
U.N. Security Council resolutions ban all ballistic missile and nuclear tests by North Korea, and have imposed sanctions over the programmes.
Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, North Korea has become even more isolated, imposing border lockdowns that have slowed trade to a trickle and have prevented in-person diplomatic engagements.
It has stuck to a self-imposed moratorium on testing its largest intercontinental ballistic missiles or nuclear weapons since 2017, but has test fired a variety of new, short-range ballistic missiles, including one from a submarine in October.
It argues it should not be penalized for developing weapons other countries already possess.
The U.S. government’s Congressional Research Service reported last month that North Korea was “continuing to build a nuclear warfighting capability designed to evade regional ballistic missile defences.”
At a regular news conference on Wednesday, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin urged all parties to “bear in mind the bigger picture”, cherish the “hard won” peace and stability on the peninsula and stick to the use of dialogue and consultation to reach political settlement. (Source: Reuters)
05 Jan 22. Taiwan air force stages drill to intercept Chinese planes amid tensions. Taiwan air force jets screamed into the sky on Wednesday in a drill simulating a war scenario, showing its combat readiness amid heightened military tensions with China, which claims the island as its own. Before takeoff, flight crews at a base in the southern city of Chiayi – home to U.S.-made F-16 fighter jets that are frequently scrambled to intercept Chinese warplanes – rushed to ready aircraft as an alarm sounded.
The exercises were part of a three-day drill to show Taiwan’s battle readiness ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday at the end of this month.
Tensions across the sensitive Taiwan Strait have been rising in the past few years, with Taiwan complaining of repeated missions by China’s air force near the democratic island.
Chinese military aircraft frequently fly into the southwestern part of its air defence identification zone (ADIZ), airspace around the island that Taiwan monitors and patrols.
“With the very high frequency of Communist planes entering our ADIZ, pilots from our wing are very experienced and have dealt with almost all types of their aircraft,” Major Yen Hsiang-sheng told reporters, recalling a mission in which he was dispatched to intercept Chinese J-16 fighters late last year.
China has not ruled out using force to bring Taiwan under its control.
Taiwan has termed China’s activities as “grey zone” warfare, designed to both wear out Taiwan’s forces by making them repeatedly scramble, and also to test its responses.
In a new year message for China last week, Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen said military conflict is not the answer. Beijing responded with a stern warning that if Taiwan crossed any red line it would lead to “profound catastrophe”. (Source: Reuters)
05 Jan 22. Japan and Australia commit to deeper ties. Japan and Australia are expected to formalise the ongoing relationship between the two countries this week, with Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Fumio Kishida expected to sign the Reciprocal Access Agreement during a virtual meeting.
Prime Ministers Scott Morrison and Fumio Kishida are anticipated to sign the Reciprocal Access Agreement during a virtual meeting this week, with the RAA expected to deepen the military ties between the two nations which are expected to include more joint military activities and greater use of one another’s military bases.
Currently, Japan’s only Reciprocal Access Agreement is with the United States.
“Australia and Japan will sign an historic treaty that will further strengthen defence and security cooperation between the two nations, during a virtual leaders’ summit on 6 January,” Prime Minister Scott Morrison said.
“Australia and Japan are the closest of friends. Our Special Strategic Partnership is stronger than it has ever been, reflecting our shared values, our commitment to democracy and human rights, and our common interests in a free, open and resilient Indo-Pacific region.
“The virtual summit with His Excellency Mr Kishida Fumio, Prime Minister of Japan, will mark the opening of a new chapter of defence and security cooperation between our two countries, with the signing of a Reciprocal Access Agreement.
“This landmark treaty will underpin greater and more complex practical engagement between the Australian Defence Force and the Japanese Self-Defence Forces. It will, for the first time, provide a clear framework for enhanced interoperability and cooperation between our two forces.”
The agreement is expected to support the ongoing challenges faced by both Australia and Japan in the Indo-Pacific and ensure the preservation of the international rules-based order.
Throughout the meeting, the leaders are also expected to discuss the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue as well as reducing climate emissions.
“The virtual summit will also build on our partnership for decarbonisation through technology, including identifying opportunities to deepen government and business collaboration on clean energy and critical technologies and materials,” PM Scott Morrison said.
The meeting between the two was scheduled to take place in person, however, was moved online due to growth in Australia’s COVID cases.
(Source: Defence Connect)
05 Jan 22. Uniting to stop the proliferation of chemical weapons in Syria. Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward at the Security Council briefing on chemical weapons in Syria.
Thank you Madam President and I join others in welcoming you to the presidency and assuring you of our full support.
I would also like to extend a warm welcome to colleagues from Albania, Brazil, Gabon, Ghana and the United Arab Emirates and look forward to working with you.
I’d like to thank USG Nakamitsu for her briefing and the OPCW Director-General for his monthly report.
As we enter a new year, this meeting – I agree – is an opportunity to review the facts and progress on this long-running agenda item.
Prior to the start of the conflict in 2011, Syria had an extensive chemical weapons programme. In 2013, following several chemical weapons attacks, including the large scale attack in Ghouta in August of that year, the Security Council adopted resolution 2118 requiring Syria to cooperate fully with the OPCW on the expeditious destruction of its chemical weapons programme.
Yet despite international cooperation on the destruction of chemical weapons stocks declared by Syria in 2013, it subsequently became clear that Syria had retained a chemical weapons capability in contravention of resolution 2118 and the Chemical Weapons Convention.
Further chemical weapons attacks took place. And thorough investigations by OPCW and joint UN-OPCW experts have confirmed that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons, including chlorine and sarin, on at least 8 occasions throughout the conflict. These regime attacks have killed and injured hundreds of innocent people. ISIL terrorists were found to have used them on 3 occasions.
Over 8 years since Syria joined the Chemical Weapons Convention, the OPCW Director-General’s monthly reports – of which there are now almost 100 – confirm there remain 20 unresolved issues with Syria’s initial declaration. These include the undeclared production and weaponisation of toxic chemicals and the unknown whereabouts of significant quantities of chemical warfare agents and munitions.
Over the past 12 months, Syria’s failure to meet its obligations has continued. Syria has repeatedly refused to issue visas for OPCW personnel, made no serious effort to meet Technical Secretariat experts and shown a total disregard for decisions of the OPCW Executive Council and Conference of States Parties.
Over the last 8 years, accountability and effective Council action to uphold resolution 2118 has been blocked by the use and threat of the veto, and by a concerted disinformation campaign to malign and undermine the OPCW and its findings.
In 2022, let us put aside narrow political motivations, stop the proliferation of chemical weapons and unite behind the full implementation of resolution 2118, including the verified complete destruction of Syria’s chemical weapons programme and holding accountable those responsible for their use. Only then will we be able to stop chemical weapons proliferation and send a message that their use is unacceptable. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
04 Jan 22. US Military Coalition in Syria Takes Out Rocket Launch Sites. The U.S. led-coalition in Syria struck several launch sites for short-range rockets believed to be intended for attacks on an installation used by U.S. troops in eastern Syria, officials said Tuesday.
The strikes against the launch sites apparently were conducted by U.S. forces, but a statement issued by the coalition did not specify who carried them out. The statement offered few details beyond saying the sites “posed an imminent threat in the vicinity of Green Village, Syria,” and were struck in self defense. Green Village, just east of the Euphrates River, is an installation used by some of the several hundred U.S. forces in Syria. Pentagon spokesman John Kirby said airstrikes were not used against the launch sites. He did not elaborate.
“One of the reasons these sites were hit was we had reason to believe that they were going to be used as launch sites for attacks on Green Village,” Kirby said. “So clearly our men and women remain in harm’s way and we have to take that threat very seriously and we always have the right of self defense.”
Kirby said he could not comment on which group may have intended to use the rocket sites. The pre-emptive attack on the sites followed two separate incidents this week in Iraq in which explosives-laden drones were shot down before they could attack an Iraqi military base housing U.S. troops in western Iraq and a facility housing U.S. advisers at Baghdad airport.
Commenting on those drone incidents in Iraq on Monday and Tuesday, Kirby said the United States has not conclusively determined who was behind them, but he added, “these kinds of attacks are very much in keeping with the kind of attacks we’ve seen from Iran-backed militias in Iraq and in Syria, and so obviously our working-level assumption is that such groups were responsible for these.”
A January 2020 U.S. drone strike at Baghdad’s airport killed Gen. Qassim Soleimani, who was the head of Iran’s elite Quds Force, and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis, deputy commander of Iran-backed militias in Iraq. Pro-Iran Shiite factions in Iraq have vowed revenge for the killings. The United States has about 2,500 troops in Iraq acting as trainers and advisers to Iraqi security forces. (Source: AP/Military.com)
04 Jan 22. U.S. Troops in Iraq Remain at Risk, Retain Right of Self-Defense, Press Secretary Says. Even though the mission of U.S. forces in Iraq has changed, the troops are still in a hazardous environment and retain the ability to defend themselves, Pentagon Press Secretary John F. Kirby told reporters today. The mission of U.S. forces shifted from combat to advise and assist two weeks ago, per an agreement between the United States and Iraq. Yet troops advising and assisting Iraqi forces are at risk.
Forces launched strikes against rocket-launching sites near Green Village in Syria and shot down two armed drones targeting forces in Al Asad Air Base. There were no casualties among friendly forces.
The strikes against the rocket-launching sites were not airstrikes, Kirby said. Forces hit the sites to ensure rockets were not launched against coalition forces.
But that begs the greater question of if U.S. personnel are at risk in the mission. “They clearly are at risk in the region,” Kirby said. “I mean, one of the reasons why these sites were hit was we had reason to believe that they were going to be used as launch sites for attacks on Green Village. So clearly, our men and women remain in harm’s way. And we have to take that threat very seriously. We always have the right of self-defense.”
Kirby would not say who manned these rocket-launching sites. “That said, we continue to see threats against our forces in Iraq and Syria by militia groups that are backed by Iran,” he said. “But again, I don’t have specific attribution on who was responsible for these specific sites.”
Iran is a major player in Iraq and U.S. officials have been consistently concerned about the threats to U.S. forces in the region. “That is not a new concern,” Kirby said. “And I think we’ve seen in just the last few days, that there have been acts perpetrated by some of these groups that validate the consistent concern that we’ve had over the safety and security of our people.”
On Russia, Kirby said should NATO allies ask for more U.S. capabilities in Europe, “we would be positively disposed to consider those requests.” Still, he noted, the United States has a “very large and robust footprint” in Europe that complements the sizable capabilities that European allies possess. “There already exists a lot of capabilities ,” he said. “And some of those capabilities could be moved around — if that was, in fact, the request and was decided that would be the most prudent thing to do.”
There are many options that President Joe Biden has if Russia decides to launch another incursion into Ukraine, Kirby said, but nothing has been asked for yet. (Source: US DoD)
04 Jan 22. Satellite images show Morocco has built an air defense base near its capital. Satellite images show Morocco is constructing a new air defense base in Sidi Yahya el- Gharb, which is located northeast of the capital Rabat. A source gave Defense News the images, taken via Google Earth, on the condition of anonymity, but would not share the exact coordinates on the grounds of national security. However, independent research by Defense News shows the base is located at approximately 34.29753301432181, -6.283922702669312.
To get a sense of the construction’s progress, Defense News spoke to several experts.
“The facility is definitely an air defense base,” Jeffrey Lewis, who directs the East Asia Nonproliferation Project at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies at Monterey, said upon receiving the coordinates and an updated image from Jan. 2, provided in conjunction with Planet Labs.
China North Industries Group Corporation Limited — commonly referred to as NORINCO — delivered 24 Sky Dragon 50 medium-range surface-to-air missiles to Morocco in December 2017. The African country has also procured the French short-range missile defense system VL Mika. The €200m (U.S. $226m) contract for the vertical-launch system was signed between European missile-maker MBDA and Morocco in 2019.
But it’s the 2017 purchase that caught Lewis’ attention. “The construction of the base, which also began in 2017, would suggest it was created with this large purchase in mind,” he said. “Moreover, the Moroccans released an image of a Sky Dragon 50 that I was able to determine was taken at this location.”
It appears construction was completed around August 2020, he added.
Abdel Hamid Harfi, a published researcher who has appeared on regional television shows as a subject matter expert, said the Sidi Yahia el-Gharb base area is “approximately 40 hectares in the middle of the major Moroccan metropolises, which contain several sensitive and strategic areas.”
He added it’s likely the base will host air defense units, a maintenance center, military housing and other administrative buildings.
Mohammad Shkeir, a Morocco-based military and security affairs expert, expects the base will operate air defense systems from several countries.
“This base will operate air defense systems procured from China, Patriot [Advanced Capability]-3 missile systems from the United States, as well as defense systems from Israel, after the recent visit of the Israeli defense minister to Morocco and the agreements signed in this regard,” Shkeir said.
A Dec. 19 report on Defensa.com claimed the base already featured the Chinese FD-2000 surface-to-air missile system, but Harfi said he hasn’t seen a procurement contract between Morocco and China.
Still, said Lewis, the vehicle sheds on site are different sizes, and the larger ones could imply large surface-to-air missile systems like the FD-2000.
“If Morocco has now acquired FD-2000B SAMs from China, as reported by Defensa, this is almost certainly where they would be based,” he added.
Morocco has reportedly held negotiations with different suppliers to buy medium- and long-range air defense systems. The government has made no official announcement, but Harfi expects there will be one in the coming months or during 2023 at the latest.
“Morocco is interested in the Israeli Barak 8 system, which may be one of the new systems that may enter service with the Royal [Moroccan] Air Force,” Harfi said. (Source: Defense News)
04 Jan 22. Did Turkey Plant Kill Switches in Exported Bayraktar Armed Drones? Turkey’s top defense industry official has reiterated that armed drones sold to other countries will never pose a risk to Turkey in the future, suggesting that engineers placed a kill switch on the exported versions of the drones.
The revelations were made by İsmail Demir, head of the Presidency of the Defense Industry (Savunma Sanayii Baskanligi, SSB), Turkey’s top defense procurement agency, in an interview with a local TV station on December 17, 2021.
“Turkey knows what it’s doing. Turkey will not take a step that will put itself at risk,”
Demir said with a grin in response to a question about whether other countries would be able to attack Turkey using the armed drones it sold them.
Demir also made clear that the export versions of Turkish armed drones are not the same as the drones used by the Turkish military and highlighted that the Defense Ministry must approve any arms sales to a foreign country after obtaining an opinion from the Foreign Ministry. He said Turkish defense firms design the weapons according to set specifications for each client.
İsmail Demir, head of the Presidency of the Defense Industry, Turkey’s top defense procurement agency
Demir’s remarks offered clues to Turkey’s secretive export-oriented arms programs including armed drones that were apparently furnished with what defense industry experts call a kill switch that is remotely activated by the manufacturer to render the weapons useless in the event of a conflict.
Many arms-exporting countries use one or multiple kill switches in the export versions of the defense industry products they sell. Those hidden designs are often difficult to detect. Even if they were discovered, they are not easy to dismantle or disconnect because doing so would damage the system itself.
Turkey has exported Bayraktar armed drones that were manufactured by defense contractor Baykar Makina Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Şirketi (Baykar), which is run by Erdoğan’s son-in-law Selçuk Bayraktar. The clients that have taken delivery of the armed drones include Ukraine, Poland, Qatar, Libya, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, Ethiopia and Azerbaijan.
The Turkish military also has used armed drones in both Turkey and several battle zones such as Libya, Syria and Nagorno-Karabakh. Canada suspended in 2020 and later blocked military arms exports to Turkey after a probe found Canadian drone technology had been misdirected for use in conflict. The US also sanctioned the SSB, its president Demir and three other SSB officials for Turkey’s purchase of S-400 long-range missiles from Russia.
Bayraktar drones also troubled dozens of US lawmakers who called on the State Department to suspend export licenses for US drone technology to Turkey, pending an official investigation into the destabilizing role of Turkey’s drone programs in many parts of the world.
“The potential for these drones to further destabilize flashpoints in the Caucuses [sic], South Asia, the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and North Africa is too great to ignore,”
said 27 members of the US House of Representatives in a letter to Secretary of State Antony Blinken in August 2021.
According to the letter, the evidence collected from the battlefield in the Caucasus confirmed that Bayraktar drones contain parts and technology from US firms and its affiliates. “The continued transfer of such technology appears to violate arms export control laws and run afoul [of] CAATSA sanctions that Congress has imposed on Turkey, especially its Savunma Sanayii Başkanlığı (SSB) (Turkey’s Presidency of Defense Industries),” the letter said.
Turkey has scrambled to replace imported parts for its drone programs with locally manufactured ones with some degree of success. Turkish defense contractor Aselsan reportedly developed the Common Aperture Targeting System (CATS) for Baykar, replacing those acquired from abroad.
According to Turkey’s 2021 export figures announced by the Turkish Exporters Assembly in early December, Turkey’s arms sales reached a record level, with the biggest increase to African countries.
In the first 11 months of 2021, Turkey exported $2.793bn worth of defense products, an increase of 39.7 percent compared to the same period of the previous year. The Turkish defense industry, which set an export record of $2.7bn in 2019, is preparing to set a new record by closing this year with exports of more than $3bn. For the first time the defense sector had a 1.8 percent share of Turkey’s total exports in November 2021. (Source: UAS VISION/Nordic Monitor)
03 Jan 22. Pakistan confirms Chinese ‘Firebird’ fighter acquisition. Pakistan has officially confirmed its long-speculated acquisition of the Chinese J-10C Firebird fighter jet, which is slated to arrive in time to take part in the March 23 Pakistan Day Parade.
Rasheed Ahmed, Pakistan’s interior minister, told the media last week the country acquired 25 aircraft. He linked them as a counter to India’s growing Rafale fleet.
He did not detail the value of the deal, and a source familiar with Pakistan’s military acquisition programs said he does not know if the fighters were “purchased or loaned to Pakistan’s Air Force.”
However, the source said, he is “more inclined to the latter, as [the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Air Force] may have given a few units to the Pakistan Air Force to test on a delayed cost basis.”
Richard Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center, told Defense News there “is imagery suggesting that finished J-10Cs at the Chengdu factory are ready for near-immediate transfer,” referring to a manufacturing location in China.
Pakistan’s interest in the J-10 spans more than 10 years. The country was first interested in the FC-20 export variant of the single-seat J-10A. This was part of the wider Armed Forces Development Plan 2015, derailed by a lack of funding under the 2008-2013 Pakistan Peoples Party administration.
Pakistan’s interest in the FC-20 was partially driven by a need to complement its F-16, when further acquisition of that program appeared unlikely.
Pakistan also reportedly examined acquiring the Russian Su-35 Flanker-E, potentially to help better cover naval operations in the Arabian Sea.
When speculation first arose of a Pakistani J-10C purchase in early 2021, it was linked with one of the Pakistan Air Force squadrons based in Karachi.
China’s naval air arm, the PLANAF, operates the earlier J-10AH and J-10SH Firebird variants from shore as multirole aircraft. Though unconfirmed, Pakistan may operate its aircraft similarly.
Pakistan’s Firebirds are believed to be the J-10CE export variant of the latest J-10C, featuring an active electronically scanned array radar and long-range PL-15 air-to-air missiles. Twenty-five aircraft could equip two squadrons of 12 aircraft each.
Royal United Services Institute airspace analyst Justin Bronk said the J-10C will significantly boost Pakistan’s air power.
“The J-10C is a potent modern multirole light fighter, which represents a rough Chinese equivalent to a modern F-16 Block 60/70,″ he said.
However, he noted, it’s not quite on a par with the Rafale.
“The AESA radar and access to the long-ranged PL-15 air-to-air missile make it a potentially serious long-range threat to non-stealth aircraft, although it might still struggle as a counter to India’s Rafale at long ranges. The latter’s superior kinematic performance and access to the Meteor missile [provide] a decent counter to the PL-15,″ Bronk said. “The J-10C is also unlikely to be able to match the Rafale for electronic warfare capabilities.” (Source: Defense News)
03 Jan 22. Russia, China, Britain, U.S. and France say no one can win nuclear war. China, Russia, Britain, the United States and France have agreed that a further spread of nuclear arms and a nuclear war should be avoided, according to a joint statement by the five nuclear powers published by the Kremlin on Monday.
It said that the five countries – which are the permanent members of the United Nations Security Council – consider it their primary responsibility to avoid war between the nuclear states and to reduce strategic risks, while aiming to work with all countries to create an atmosphere of security.
“We affirm that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought,” the English-language version of the statement read.
“As nuclear use would have far-reaching consequences, we also affirm that nuclear weapons — for as long as they continue to exist — should serve defensive purposes, deter aggression, and prevent war.”
Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu said the joint statement could help increase mutual trust and “replace competition among major powers with coordination and cooperation,” adding that China has a “no first use” policy on nuclear weapons, state news agency Xinhua reported.
France also released the statement, underscoring that the five powers reiterated their determination for nuclear arms control and disarmament. They would continue bilateral and multilateral approaches to nuclear arms control, it said.
The statement from the so-called P5 group comes as bilateral relations between the United States and Moscow have fallen to their lowest point since the end of the Cold War, while relations between Washington and China are also at a low over a range of disagreements.
The Pentagon in November sharply increased its estimate of China’s projected nuclear weapons arsenal over the coming years, saying Beijing could have 700 warheads by 2027 and possibly 1,000 by 2030.
Washington has repeatedly urged China to join it and Russia in a new arms control treaty.
Geopolitical tensions between Moscow and Western countries have increased over concerns about Russia’s military buildup near neighbouring Ukraine. Moscow says it can move its army around its own territory as it deems necessary.
Last Thursday U.S. President Joe Biden told his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, that a possible move on Ukraine would draw sanctions and an increased U.S. presence in Europe.
U.S. and Russian officials will hold security talks on Jan. 10 to discuss concerns about their respective military activity and confront rising tensions over Ukraine, the two countries said.
A conference on a major nuclear treaty that was set to begin on Tuesday at the United Nations has been postponed until August due to the COVID-19 pandemic. (Source: Reuters)
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