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02 Jan 22. Joe Biden ‘reaffirmed’ America’s commitment to Ukraine’s ‘sovereignty and territorial integrity’ as Russia has pressed for ‘security guarantees’ to limit Nato expansion. The US and its allies will “respond decisively” if Russia invades Ukraine, President Joe Biden told his counterpart in Kyiv as tensions mounted over Moscow’s troop deployments. The call on Sunday between Biden and Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky was the latest diplomatic attempt to allay mounting tensions after Russia amassed about 100,000 soldiers on Ukraine’s eastern frontier. Washington, Moscow and Nato member states are set to meet for talks in early January, when Russia intends to press for “security guarantees” to limit the military alliance’s expansion in Europe. Biden “reaffirmed” America’s commitment to Ukraine’s “sovereignty and territorial integrity”, according to a statement by Jen Psaki, White House press secretary. After the exchange, Zelensky wrote on Twitter that the leaders had discussed “joint actions” by Ukraine, the US and partners “in keeping peace in Europe, preventing further escalation, reforms, de-oligarchisation”. Biden’s message to Zelensky echoed a telephone conversation last week with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin, in which the US president said Washington and its allies were prepared to respond “decisively” should Moscow invade Ukraine. A day after the call with Putin, which was arranged last Thursday at Moscow’s request, Biden said: “I’m not going to negotiate here in public, but we made it clear that he [Putin] cannot — I emphasise cannot — move on Ukraine”. Although the Russian leader has previously denied any plan to invade Ukraine, he said last month he was prepared to use “appropriate military-technical measures” and “react harshly to hostile steps” should Kyiv and its western backers ignore Moscow’s “red lines”. Russian forces in March 2014 forcibly seized Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula after a pro-democratic movement ousted pro-Moscow president Viktor Yanukovich. An armed uprising erupted a month later in Ukraine’s two easternmost regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, with Russian-led forces taking over parts of the area. More than 13,000 people have been killed in the conflict and approximately 1.5m people have been displaced — the largest European displacement crisis since the Balkan wars, according to the International Organization for Migration. Approximately 7 per cent of Ukraine’s territory has remained under the control of Russia or its proxies since 2014.
Moscow has denied being involved in the Ukrainian conflict, which has continued for eight years and escalated in recent months. Civilians have joined training camps to prepare to back up the Ukrainian military in the event of war. A senior US administration official said the tone of the conversation between Biden and Putin was “serious and substantive”, with both leaders acknowledging the possibility of “meaningful progress” in some areas but also others where “agreement may be impossible”. Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said the Kremlin was “satisfied” with the conversation with Biden, calling it “frank, substantive [and] specific”, according to Interfax. Russia’s threat of military force has revitalised the debate in Finland about whether the Nordic country should join Nato, a move that would challenge demands from Russia to limit the growth of the military alliance in Europe. In their new year addresses, Finland’s president Sauli Niinisto and Prime Minister Sanna Marin highlighted that the country retained the option of seeking Nato membership at any time. The telephone calls also come amid controversy around Russia’s role in Europe’s soaring gas prices. Some European officials have accused Russian gas giant Gazprom of withholding additional volumes as it aims to launch the Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Europe, whose approval by German regulators is on hold. Gazprom insisted it was meeting all its contractual obligations to supply gas to Europe and said the record prices had killed demand for spot sales. (Source: FT.com)
31 Dec 21. Israel signs deal to buy $3.1bn in U.S. helicopters, tankers. Israel has signed a deal with the United States to buy 12 Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT.N) CH-53K helicopters and two Boeing Co (BA.N) KC-46 refuelling planes, the Israeli Defence Ministry said on Friday, estimating the total price at around $3.1bn. The deal, signed on Thursday, is part of an upgrade of Israel’s air force capabilities and includes an option to buy six additional helicopters, a ministry statement said. It said the first helicopters were due to arrive in Israel in 2026. Brigadier-General Shimon Tsentsiper, chief of materiel for the air force, told Israel’s Army Radio on Thursday that the refuelling planes on order would not be delivered before 2025. He said Israel was trying to bring forward the delivery of the KC-46s, and eventually wanted a total of four of them. Israeli media have speculated that the refuelling planes could be crucial for carrying out a long-threatened air strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities. Tsentsiper said the air force’s current refuelling capacities were sufficient for its missions. (Source: Reuters)
31 Dec 21. US to respond ‘decisively’ if Russia invades Ukraine, Joe Biden warns Vladimir Putin. Presidents speak for almost an hour in latest diplomatic effort to defuse tensions. US president Joe Biden spoke with Russia’s president Vladimir Putin from his home in Wilmington, Delaware. The US and its allies are prepared to respond “decisively” should Russia invade Ukraine, President Joe Biden told his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin on Thursday amid mounting tensions at the border. The telephone call between the leaders, which was arranged at Moscow’s request, marked the latest in a string of diplomatic efforts to defuse what has been described as a “moment of crisis” as Russia amasses roughly 100,000 troops on Ukraine’s eastern frontier. It also preceded negotiations between Washington, Moscow and Nato member states planned for early January, when Russia intends to press for “security guarantees” to limit Nato’s expansion in Europe. Although Russia’s leader has previously denied any plan to invade Ukraine, Putin last week refused to rule out a military option and has previously warned that he has “all kinds” of options if his demands are not met. The US has said that several of Russia’s proposals were not up for negotiation, but it was open to discussing other Kremlin demands as it sought to deter Moscow from military action. According to a senior US administration official, the tone of the call, which lasted just under an hour, was “serious and substantive”, with both leaders acknowledging the possibility of “meaningful progress” in some areas but also others where “agreement may be impossible”. Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said the Kremlin was “satisfied” with the conversation, calling it “frank, substantive [and] specific”, according to Interfax. Biden expressed his support for a diplomatic solution but warned of substantial costs and consequences should Russia proceed with its invasion of Ukraine. The costs include economic sanctions as well as providing aid and other assistance to Ukraine so that it can further defend its territory, the official said. “He made clear that the United States and its allies and partners will respond decisively if Russia further invades Ukraine,” Jen Psaki, White House press secretary, said in a statement on Thursday. “President Biden reiterated that substantive progress in these dialogues can occur only in an environment of de-escalation rather than escalation.” Putin told Biden that sweeping sanctions would cause a “complete rupture” in relations between the two countries, Ushakov said, adding that it would be a “colossal mistake that could lead to the most serious consequences”. The telephone call also comes amid controversy around Russia’s role in Europe’s soaring gas prices. Some European officials have accused Russian gas giant Gazprom of withholding additional volumes as it aims to launch the controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline to Europe, whose approval by German regulators is on hold. Gazprom insisted it was meeting all its contractual obligations to supply gas to Europe and said the record prices had killed demand for spot sales.
Russia felt a call was needed to clarify both leaders’ positions since they last spoke on December 7, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told journalists earlier on Thursday. US and Russian officials are due to hold talks on January 10 followed by discussions between Russia and Nato on January 12 and a wider meeting between Moscow and representatives of the Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe, expected on January 13. Ahead of the January meetings, Russia said it was aiming to secure “legally binding security guarantees” from the US, said Maria Zakharova, foreign ministry spokesperson, namely, “guarantees that Nato will not pursue eastward expansion”. Putin has described the threat of Nato’s expansion as an existential crisis for Russia and has made clear that he sees the situation in east Ukraine as unfinished business. The country witnessed a Russia-backed separatist uprising in 2014 after Moscow annexed Ukraine’s Crimea peninsula. The conflict has claimed at least 14,000 lives. Speaking ahead of the call on Thursday, Peskov said Russia was “set on dialogue” but added that the movement of its armed forces on its soil was the country’s prerogative. A senior US administration official said: “We’re going to continue to monitor very closely the movement and build-up of Russian forces on the Ukraine border and prepare ourselves for whatever decision ultimately is made by the Russian president.” (Source: FT.com)
30 Dec 21. S. Korea’s ruling party presidential candidate pushes for nuclear-powered submarines. South Korea’s ruling party presidential candidate said he will seek U.S. support to build nuclear-powered submarines to better counter threats from North Korea and proactively seek to reopen stalled denuclearisation talks between Pyongyang and Washington.
In an interview with Reuters and two other media outlets, Lee Jae-myung also pledged to put aside “strategic ambiguity” in the face of intensifying Sino-U.S rivalry, vowing pragmatic diplomacy would avoid South Korea being forced to choose between the two countries.
The former governor of Gyeonggi province in October became the presidential candidate for President Moon Jae-in’s ruling Democratic Party due to his aggressive COVID-19 responses and advocacy of universal basic income. The election is scheduled for March 9, 2022.
Lee, 57, is in a tight race against his challenger from the main conservative opposition People Power Party, Yoon Suk-yeol, but his ratings have risen in recent weeks, surpassing Yoon in some polls this week.
Lee said he will persuade the United States to win diplomatic and technology aid to launch nuclear-powered submarines, which can operate more quietly for longer periods, amid renewed calls for building one in the military and parliament after North Korea test-fired a new missile from a submarine in October. read more
Lee cited the deal Australia struck under a trilateral security partnership with the United States and Britain in September to build its own nuclear-powered submarines.
“It is absolutely necessary for us to have those subs. They are not weaponised in themselves, and technology transfer is under way to Australia,” he said. “We can definitely convince the United States, and we have to.”
He dismissed the idea of seeking assistance from France or elsewhere, saying “it is the matter of whether we will keep the deal with Washington or not, and whether we can persuade them or not.”
South Korea is currently banned from reprocessing spent fuel under a civilian nuclear energy pact with the United States, and sources said Moon’s administration had failed to earn U.S. support for such submarines.
A party outsider often critical of Moon, Lee said he will not keep Moon’s policy of strategic ambiguity between the United States, South Korea’s top ally, and China, its largest economic partner.
“We don’t need to be forced to make a choice by being ambiguous,” he said, describing the situation as “retrograde, submissive.”
“With our growing economic, military and soft power, our diplomacy should be focused on making them choose, not us being asked to take sides. I call it pragmatic diplomacy based on national interests,” Lee added.
On North Korea, Lee supported U.S. President Joe Biden’s “bottom-up” approach of prioritising working-level talks, which he said would be useful in drawing realistic short-term action plans under a comprehensive roadmap.
Moon had offered a bridge between North Korean leader Kim Jong Un and former U.S. President Donald Trump, but was blamed for raising unrealistic expectations for his own inter-Korean agenda following a failed 2019 summit.
“Trump’s top-down approach looked nice but was unrealistic … though summits and working-level talks can create a positive interplay,” Lee said.
He pledged to be an even more proactive mediator to defuse tension and distrust, and restart negotiations between Pyongyang and Washington, but did not elaborate on how.
Any fresh talks should be aimed at crafting a roadmap for dismantling the North’s nuclear and missile programmes in return for U.S. sanctions relief, under which both sides are bound to take concrete action “in a simultaneous, phased manner,” with “snap-back” provisions for the event of noncompliance, Lee said.
“There’s a river of distrust between them,” he said. “Our role should be to open a dialogue channel, devise realisable plans and convince both sides so that they can cross that river.” (Source: Reuters)
28 Dec 21. Japan and China agree to launch military hotline. Tokyo’s defence minister confirms planned link amid rising tensions over Taiwan and disputed islands China’s increasing military activity in the Pacific has raised concerns of an armed confrontation. Tokyo and Beijing have agreed to set up a military hotline, according to Japanese officials, creating an emergency communication mechanism to defuse potential crises over disputed islands and the Taiwan Strait. The Japanese defence ministry said the governments agreed to set up the link by the end of 2022 during a two-hour phone call on Monday between Nobuo Kishi, defence minister, and his Chinese counterpart Wei Fenghe. The ministers agreed on the “timely establishment” of a hotline between the two militaries, the Japanese defence ministry said, in order to improve the effectiveness of the maritime and aerial communication mechanism, a system established in 2018 to avert unintended clashes. The Chinese defence ministry did not directly mention a hotline, but said there was a need for strengthening liaison and communication between the defence ministries. They should “strengthen high-level exchanges and practical co-operation, further expand the content of the sea and air liaison mechanism, jointly control risks, prevent the escalation of conflicts and continuously improve the level of defence co-operation”, Wei said, according to the Chinese defence ministry. Kishi has intensified Japan’s focus on the potential risks around Taiwan during his tenure, telling the Financial Times this year that broad international pressure was crucial to prevent Taipei’s future from being decided by military confrontation. A recent defence white paper called for Taiwan’s security to be viewed with an increased “sense of crisis”. Kishi expressed “grave concerns” on the call about any attempts by China to change the status quo through coercion, Japan’s defence ministry said, adding that he told Wei that peace across the Taiwan Strait was critical to Japan’s security and to the stability of the international community. People close to the discussions cautioned that the latest sign of an agreement may not represent a significant breakthrough. China has a military hotline for crises with the US, but Washington complained this year that calls often went unanswered. According to US experts, crisis communication channels have broken down in the past during critical situations, such as the April 2001 collision of a Chinese fighter jet with a US spyplane off the southern Chinese island of Hainan.
A military hotline between China and Japan has been under discussion for more than a decade. The sides agreed in 2007 to set one up but failed to finalise details. One person briefed on the talks between Kishi and Wei said a phone call between China’s president Xi Jinping and Fumio Kishida shortly after the Japanese prime minister assumed office in October marked a shortlived thaw in relations. Xi said the rivals should pursue “constructive and stable” relations ahead of next year’s 50th anniversary of their re-establishment of diplomatic ties in 1972. But regular Chinese incursions around the Senkaku Islands — which are known in China as the Diaoyu and are claimed by Beijing — have continued. The Chinese government was angered by Kishida’s criticism of the forays and Beijing’s policies in Hong Kong and Xinjiang at a regional summit in late October. “Even though there is a window of opportunity to improve relations, the foundation of the relationship is still very fragile,” the person said. Experts have warned that the rapidly expanding activity by the Chinese military, coast guard and maritime militia ships — fishing boats that work with the military — around the Senkaku Islands raised the risk of an accident or open conflict. (Source: FT.com)
24 Dec 21. Australia to get the first of its nuclear submarines five years ahead of schedule as America fast-tracks $90bn project in face of rising tensions with China.
* Australia may be able to launch its first nuclear submarine in the early 2030s
* Pentagon is fast-tracking project as West braces for confrontation with China
* The $90bn fleet of eight nuclear submarines could now be built in Australia
* Work is underway on designing local shipyards but skilled workers need training
Rising tensions with China have fast-tracked the delivery of the first Australian nuclear submarine under the $90bn deal with the USA and the UK. Australia now looks set to launch its first nuclear-powered submarine five years ahead of schedule as the West braces for confrontation with China.
Defence Minister Peter Dutton has revealed the UK and US are ‘pulling out all the stops’ to speed up the massive project.
The controversial deal – which saw Australia abandon its contract with France for a fleet of diesel submarines – could now see the new subs coming into operation in the first half of the 2030s.
They were originally not expected to join the Australian naval fleet until 2040 at the earliest, but the US Defense Department is pushing to bring the timeline forward.
It comes as fears grow of a stand-off between the West and China over Taiwan, with Australian pledging to support any US response if the situation escalates.
‘I think we are advancing at a quicker pace than what we could have imagined even at the time of the announcement,’ Mr Dutton told The Australian.
‘There has been no game-playing, no roadblocks, they are pulling out all stops to make this work. It’s a capability that we want to acquire quickly and we are in those discussions right now.’ (Source: Daily Mail)
24 Dec 21. UK condemns Iran’s use of ballistic missiles: FCDO statement. The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office has condemned Iran’s use of ballistic missiles in a test launch conducted today. An FCDO spokesperson said: “We condemn Iran’s use of ballistic missiles in a test launch confirmed to have been conducted today. The launch is a clear breach of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which requires that Iran not undertake any activity related to ballistic missiles designed to be capable of delivering nuclear weapons – including launches using ballistic missile technology.” These actions are a threat to regional and international security and we call on Iran to immediately cease its activities. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
24 Dec 21. Strengthening ties: The value of enhancing a Philippine-Australia strategic partnership. As the Commonwealth government embarked on one of the Australia’s largest and most ambitious naval capability upgrades since Federation with the creation of the AUKUS security partnership, this week Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi outlined that China does not fear confrontation with the US in the Indo-Pacific.
Relations between the US and China are at a low over a range of disagreements including the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic, trade, human rights, and Beijing’s increasing pressure on Taiwan. The announcement of the AUKUS alliance were met with mixed reviews from Australia’s Indo-Pacific neighbours and were far from uniform, but, the forward planning initiatives as set out in the Strategic Update has set the nation on course to be an ambitious military player in the region.
While Taiwan has been at the forefront of discussion, perhaps striking up a strategic partnership with the island nation of the Philippines could be a key consideration for Australia after the Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin welcomed the new security arrangement, claiming that it will help maintain peace and stability in south-east Asia.
A BRIEF HISTORY
A look into US and Philippine history can provide a brief snapshot of how beneficial a strategic partnership would be for Australia in the current geo-political climate.
Since the Philippines officially became a sovereign nation following the signing of the Treaty of Manila in 1946, the US has maintained links with the south-east Asian littoral state by retaining existing military bases and assets, which the US continues to actively use.
Backing Secretary Locsin’s position on AUKUS, Secretary of National Defense Delfin Lorenzana supported Secretary Locsin’s position by stating that Australia, like the Philippines, has the right to improve its submarine defence capability.
The continued US presence in the archipelago and ties with the Philippines are rooted in legacy policies that have been in play for the most part of the 20th century to the present day, a relationship that Australia could leverage.
REGIONAL NEIGHBOURS
The idea of the Indo-Pacific as a single region of interest is specifically useful for Australia, because it encompasses all of Australia’s maritime surrounds, according to the RAN Sea Power Review and Analysis.
Australia’s long-standing support for its Pacific island neighbours, which saw Australia gift vessels to Pacific island countries between 1987 and 1997 under the Pacific Patrol Boat Program (PPBP), has enabled an enduring security co-operation with Pacific countries that covers a broad scope including defence, law enforcement, transnational crime, climate and disaster resilience, border management and human security.
Since 2001, Australia has provided financial, technical and legal support to Pacific island states to establish their maritime zones, negotiate shared boundaries and submit extended continental shelf claims.
With Australian support, eight Pacific countries were able to establish their maritime zone limits in national legislation, 10 countries submitted extended continental shelf claims, and nine countries were able to negotiate or amend 15 shared boundary treaties. Defence has stepped up its support for regional countries to conduct co-operation patrols and has enhanced the capability of regional maritime co-ordination.
The Commonwealth government’s 30-year investment and commitment to supporting its Pacific neighbours is integral to a stable and resilient security environment, following the key challenges that have emerged in the Indo-Pacific, that prompted the formation of the new AUKUS trilateral partnership.
Continuing the legacy of the PPBP, the succeeding e Pacific Maritime Security Program (PMSP) has considerable value for Australia and the Pacific region. In contributing to maintaining a free and open IndoPacific, enduring investment in sovereign defence capabilities and boosting the Pacific regional maritime security is key.
In contrast, the Philippines who filed an arbitration case against China under UNCLOS in January 2013, is still waiting for China to respond accordingly to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) arbitral tribunal ruling that upheld the Philippine case against it in 2016.
China, has been busy transforming the reefs and atolls in the South China Sea, constructing man-made military-base islands in the disputed waters. It all started in 2012, following China’s forceful assertion of control over the Scarborough Shoal in the Philippine exclusive economic zone and its artificial island-building campaign in the Spratlys in 2013, among a string of violations against Philippine sovereign and maritime rights.
Under UNCLOS, features like the artificial islands that China has developed have no territorial seas of their own. The US has been exercising its freedom of navigation and overflight rights in the South China Sea to contest China’s unlawful claims and offer support to the south-east Asian littoral state following the ruling.
COUNTERBALANCE REQUIRED
Given that the ASEAN states do not possess the military capabilities to maintain the balance of power in the region, the Philippine support for AUKUS and Australia’s naval capability to maintain the south-east Asian balance of power is no surprise.
China’s aggression in the Indo-Pacific region has prompted Secretary Locsin’s position, noting that he saw AUKUS as a counterbalance against the increasingly aggressive advances of China, as it claims nearly 85 per cent of disputed waters under the so-called nine-dash line.
According to Secretary Locsin, the reasons behind the Philippines’ support for this trilateral security partnership is due to China’s growing power and influence in the region and notes that US, ‘the main balancer’, is separated from south-east Asia by the Pacific Ocean.
If China’s belligerent response and the way it has handled its disputes so far, has further affirmed its lack of willingness to accept the current rules-based order.
ENHANCING TIES WITH AUKUS MEMBERS
During a virtual talk at the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Secretary Locsin reiterated the Philippines’ support for AUKUS, declaring that Australia should be part of ASEAN as a geographical grouping for regional defence and regional stability.
“What rounds out the circle of security (in Southeast Asia) is the anchor of Australia right underneath,” Secretary Locsin said.
The best expression of the Philippines’ support for AUKUS so far, was the Armed Forces of the Philippines’ invitation to the UK to participate as an observer in the full-scale 2022 Philippine-US annual Balikatan (Shoulder-to-Shoulder) Exercise.
If the Philippines sees value in the enhancement of a neighbour’s capability to project power in south-east Asia to restore and keep the balance of power, rather than destabilise, perhaps it is time Australia takes a look at focusing a little further north. (Source: Defence Connect)
23 Dec 21. ‘Keep the defender guessing’: Russia’s military options on Ukraine. Russia’s deployment of tens of thousands of troops to the north, east and south of Ukraine is fuelling fears in Kyiv and Western capitals that Moscow is planning a new attack. Russia denies any such plans.
Western military analysts have suggested that Russia cannot keep such troops deployed where they are indefinitely due to financial and logistical issues and would need to pull them back by the summer of next year. Estimates of the numbers of new Russian troops moved closer to Ukraine vary from 60,000-90,000, with a U.S. intelligence document suggesting that number could be ramped up to 175,000.
U.S. officials have warned Russia might launch a new attack against Ukraine as early as the second half of next month when the ground will be harder, making it easier for tanks and other armour to move swiftly.
President Vladimir Putin said on Thursday that Russian and U.S. officials would in January begin discussing Moscow’s proposals for security guarantees it wants from the West in order to defuse the current crisis and that he hoped for a positive outcome.
But what might a Russian attack actually look like and what could it seek to achieve?
“The current deployments are versatile. They keep Russia’s options open and therefore keep the defender guessing,” said Keir Giles, an Associate Fellow at Chatham House.
Here are some possible scenarios.
DONBASS ESCALATION
Heavily armed Russian-backed separatists have controlled a swath of eastern Ukraine since 2014 and continue to exchange fire with Ukrainian government forces on a regular basis despite a 2015 ceasefire that ended major hostilities.
The conflict in Donbass has killed 15,000 people, Kyiv says. Ukraine has long accused Russia of having regular troops in the region, something Moscow denies.
Russia in turn has accused Kyiv of harbouring plans to retake the region by force, something Ukraine denies.
In such a febrile atmosphere the risk of a misunderstanding or unplanned escalation is greater, and Russia could use such an incident as a casus belli.
One source familiar with the Russian Defence Ministry’s thinking said this was the most likely scenario if Moscow decided to attack, but said he was unaware of any such decision. Kyiv could also be provoked into attacking by the separatists who could then ask Russia to officially send in troops to help, the same source said.
Russian forces could expand the fighting in Donbass to draw Ukraine into a bloody, conventional conflict, said Neil Melvin, director of International Security Studies at RUSI. Moscow could try to seize new Ukrainian coastal areas on the Sea of Azov, creating a land bridge from the Russian city of Rostov through Donbass to Crimea, he said. “That would put the Ukrainian government under a lot of pressure,” he said.
ASSAULT FROM CRIMEA
Russia has brought in new forces to Crimea, which it annexed from Ukraine in 2014, and said this week paratroopers would be holding new drills there.
Moscow could launch a new attack on Ukraine from Crimea and seize territory up to the Dnieper River that could serve as a natural barrier against a potential Ukrainian counter-offensive, said Konrad Muzyka, director of the Poland-based Rochan consultancy.
The operation could begin with massive artillery, missile and air strikes on Ukrainian units in the south. Spetsnaz units might seize bridges and railway junctions, allowing troops and tanks to advance, he said. There are only two roads from Crimea that could be blocked or destroyed, a potential weakness, he said.
Forces would secure control of a Soviet-era canal that provided Crimea with fresh water supplies until Russia annexed the territory and Ukraine stopped the flow. read more
MULTI-FRONT ATTACK
A U.S. intelligence document made public this month said Russia could stage an invasion as soon as January with up to 100 battalion tactical groups (BTGs) or some 175,000 troops. It said about 50 BTGs were already in place to the north and east of Ukraine and in Crimea to the south, creating the possibility of an attack from three sides.
Seizing southern Ukraine could make military sense for Moscow by cutting Kyiv off from the coast and NATO’s presence in the Black Sea, Melvin said. Politically, it could play well with Russian nationalists who see the area as the historic “Novorossiya” lands or “New Russia”.
A multi-front assault might also involve a move into northeastern Ukraine, with Moscow encircling but perhaps not entering major cities where it could get bogged down in urban fighting. Equally, Russian troops could move into Belarus, opening up a northern front for Ukraine that would put Russian forces closer to Kyiv, Giles said.
“This of course would be the most costly economically, politically and in terms of human lives and that’s probably why it’s least likely,” Melvin said of an all-out invasion.
Analysts said even if it overwhelmed Ukraine’s army, which is half the size of its own, Russia could face guerrilla-type resistance that would make it hard to hold on to captured territory. read more
MISSILE STRIKES OR CYBER-ATTACK
Giles said some scenarios could involve long-range missile attacks or cyber-attacks targeting critical infrastructure. Missile attacks would take advantage of Ukraine’s weaker anti-missile defences.
“The different scenarios for how exactly Russia might seek to persuade the West to meet its (security) demands by punishing Kyiv don’t even necessarily include a land incursion,” he said. (Source: Reuters)
23 Dec 21. UK and international partners condemn Wagner Group’s plan to deploy mercenaries in Mali. The UK and international partners have issued a statement condemning the decision to deploy mercenary troops from the Wagner Group in Mali.
We, the international partners committed to supporting Mali and its people in their efforts to achieve sustainable peace and stability and combat terrorism, firmly condemn the deployment of mercenary troops on Malian territory. This deployment can only further deteriorate the security situation in West Africa, lead to an aggravation of the Human Rights situation in Mali, threaten the Agreement for peace and reconciliation in Mali resulting from the Algiers process, and hamper the efforts of the international community to ensure the protection of civilians and to provide support to the Malian armed forces.
We deeply regret the choice of the Malian transitional authorities to use already scarce public funds to pay foreign mercenaries instead of supporting the Malian Armed Forces and public services to the benefit of the Malian people.
We are aware of the involvement of the Russian Federation government in providing material support to the deployment of the Wagner group in Mali and call on Russia to revert to a responsible and constructive behavior in the region.
We recall ECOWAS decisions and their concern about the risk of instability for the region should private security companies deploy in Mali, (sixtieth ordinary session in Abuja, 12 December 2021). We also recall the adoption by the European Union of a set of restrictive measures against the Wagner group itself, and against eight associated individuals and three entities connected to it (Foreign Affairs Council on 13th December 2021) involved in serious human rights abuses, including torture and extrajudicial, summary or arbitrary executions and killings, or in destabilizing activities in some of the countries they operate in.
We will not give up our efforts to address the needs of the Malian population. In line with the objectives of the international Coalition for the Sahel, we reaffirm our commitment to continuing efforts to protect civilians, to support the fight against terrorism in the Sahel and help build long-term stability by supporting sustainable development, respect for human rights and the deployment of public services. We will continue to closely follow and assess the situation.
We urge the Malian transitional authorities to undertake reforms and to restore constitutional order, through the timely preparation and organization of elections, as they have committed to before the Malian people, ECOWAS and the international community. We fully support recent decisions by ECOWAS in that regard.
Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Estonia, France, Germany, Italy, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Romania, Spain, Sweden, United Kingdom. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
23 Dec 21. US and Russia to hold talks over Ukraine in early January, says Putin. ‘You must give us guarantees, and immediately,’ Russian leader tells west during annual press conference. Vladimir Putin made it clear he viewed Ukraine as an existential, unfinished issue dating back to the USSR’s collapse in 1991. Vladimir Putin said the US and Russia would meet in January in Geneva for talks over Ukraine, which he said were essential to protect Moscow from what he claimed were existential threats from Nato. Speaking at his annual press conference in Moscow on Thursday, the Russian president welcomed a “positive reaction” from the US to two sets of draft proposals on European security that Moscow published last week, which he said the sides would discuss at bilateral talks early next year. “Our American partners are telling us they’re ready to start this discussion, these negotiations,” Putin said. “Representatives from both sides have been appointed. I hope that this is the way the situation will play out.” He added: “The ball’s in their court. They need to tell us something in response.” The proposals include a request that Nato pledge to stop admitting any members from the former Soviet Union — chiefly Ukraine — and that it curb military deployments. The US has said several of these proposals are non-negotiable but that it was open to discussing other demands made by the Kremlin as it seeks ways to deter Russia from military action. Putin’s comments marked an openness to resorting to diplomacy first, in a slight softening from earlier this week, when he threatened to use Russia’s military if his security demands were not met. But the Russian leader also made it clear he viewed Ukraine as an existential, unfinished issue dating back to the USSR’s collapse in 1991, claiming that parts of its neighbour were Moscow’s “historical territories”. The US has warned allies in Europe that Moscow was massing about 100,000 troops near Ukraine’s border with an intention to launch a possible invasion, which the Kremlin first denied. But on Thursday, Putin refused to rule out another military solution to the tensions with Ukraine. Kyiv, he claimed, was planning an offensive to reclaim Donbas, the eastern border region now controlled by Russia-backed separatists, which broke away in 2014 following Moscow’s annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula.
Oleg Nikolenko, Ukraine’s foreign ministry spokesperson, denied Putin’s allegations that Kyiv was planning a military offensive on Donbas, where the slow-burning conflict has killed more than 14,000 people. The west is working to “make Russia collapse from within”, Putin went on, and is laying the grounds for war by arming Ukraine’s military and “brainwashing the population”. “Our actions won’t depend on how the negotiations go but on whether Russia’s security is ensured unconditionally, today and in historical perspective,” he said. He added: “What’s not clear here? Are we putting missiles next to the US border? No! It’s the US that has come with its missiles to our home. They’re already at the threshold. Is it really asking too much not to put any more strike systems near our home?” Putin said Nato had “blatantly tricked” Russia by allegedly pledging to expand “not one inch eastward” in the 1990s, and was threatening Moscow further with what he claimed were plans to deploy troops and missile systems to Ukraine. Russia’s draft proposals include a demand Nato restrict all future military deployments to members that joined before 1997, when it began admitting former Communist satellite states in eastern Europe. “We need to understand how our security can be ensured,” he said. “So, without any funny business, we just put it out there by saying that Nato shouldn’t move any further east.” “You must give us guarantees — and immediately. Now.” US president Joe Biden is hoping to defuse tensions by keeping diplomatic lines open with Putin while simultaneously preparing a sanctions package and possible military aid to Ukraine that the White House hopes could deter Russia from military action. Some EU countries have balked at the US’s most stringent proposals, including proposed restrictions on Russian oil and gas imports and cutting Russian banks out of the Swift payment system. Italian prime minister Mario Draghi said on Wednesday that Nato, of which Italy is a member, had “other priorities” and that Europe, which imports about 40 per cent of its gas from Russia, could not give up Russian gas supplies. (Source: FT.com)
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