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14 Nov 21. As UAE waits for U.S. F-35s, Russia pitches new warplane in Dubai. Russia showed off a prototype of its new fifth-generation warplane at the Dubai Airshow on Sunday as the United Arab Emirates’ deal to buy American F-35 fighter jets makes slow progress.
It was the first time the Sukhoi Su-75 Checkmate, unveiled in July, had been shown outside Russia, and according to the Russian state news agency it was visited by an Emirati delegation.
A glitzy English-language computer simulation video showed the light tactical warplane, capable of simultaneously carrying five air-to-air missiles, destroying multiple targets at once.
The Russian presentation pitched the Checkmate, which was inspected by Vladimir Putin during its July unveiling, as a cost-efficient fighter jet that can fly at speeds of Mach 1.8 and a range of 2,800-2,900 kilometres.
The Checkmate, due to take its maiden test flight in 2023 and to start production by 2026, has yet to seal an order. The Lockheed Martin F-35 entered into service in 2015 with the U.S. Marine Corps.
Yury Slusar, head of United Aircraft Corp, part of Russia’s state aerospace and defence conglomerate, Rostec, said there had been “intensive contacts” with the Russian air force.
Western diplomats doubt U.S.-allied Gulf states would buy sophisticated equipment like the Checkmate, though sales of Russian hardware to the Gulf have increased in recent years.
The UAE in 2017 signed a preliminary deal to buy Sukhoi Su-35 warplanes and jointly work with Russia on a next generation fighter but so far it appears not to have made progress.
“The UAE likes the idea of cultivating ties with the Russian defence industry but it’s mainly a way to send a message to the U.S.,” said Jean-Loup Samaan, senior research fellow with the Middle East Institute at the National University of Singapore.
Washington’s sale of 50 F-35 Lighting II warplanes to the UAE has slowed amid concerns about the UAE’s relationship with China, including the prevalence of Huawei 5G technology in the country.
The U.S. agreed to sell the plane after the UAE last year established ties with Israel. (Source: Reuters)
13 Nov 21. West at risk of conflict with Russia, Britain’s army chief says. There is a greater risk of an accidental war breaking out between the West and Russia than at any time since the Cold War, with many of the traditional diplomatic tools no longer available, Britain’s most senior military officer said. General Nick Carter, chief of the defence staff, told Times Radio there was a greater risk of tensions in the new era of a “multipolar world”, where governments compete for different objectives and different agendas.
“I think we have to be careful that people don’t end up allowing the bellicose nature of some of our politics to end up in a position where escalation leads to miscalculation,” he said in an interview to be broadcast on Sunday.
Tensions have been mounting in eastern Europe in recent weeks after the European Union accused Belarus of flying in thousands of migrants to engineer a humanitarian crisis on its border with EU-member state Poland, a dispute that threatens to draw in Russia and NATO.
President Vladimir Putin said on Saturday that unscheduled NATO drills in the Black Sea posed a serious challenge for Moscow and that Russia had nothing to do with the crisis on close ally Belarus’s border with the bloc.
Carter said authoritarian rivals were willing to use any tool at their disposal, such as migrants, surging gas prices, proxy forces or cyber attacks. “The character of warfare has changed,” he said.
Following the bi-polar world of the Cold War, and the unipolar world of U.S. dominance, diplomats now face a more complex multi-polar world, he said, adding that “traditional diplomatic tools and mechanisms” of the Cold War were no longer available.
“Without those tools and mechanisms there is a greater risk that these escalations or this escalation could lead to miscalculation,” he said. “So I think that’s the real challenge we have to be confronted with.”
Britain said on Friday that a small team of UK military personnel had been deployed to explore “engineering support” for Poland on its border with Belarus.
British Typhoon fighters also escorted two Russian military aircraft out of its area of interest on Friday, working with NATO partners to monitor the jets as they passed through international airspace. (Source: Reuters)
14 Nov 21. Russia starts missile supplies to India despite U.S. sanctions risk. Russia has started supplying India with S-400 air defence missile systems, Russian news agencies reported on Sunday citing Dmitry Shugayev, the head of the Russian military cooperation agency.
The supplies put India at risk of sanctions from the United States under a 2017 U.S. law aimed at deterring countries from buying Russian military hardware.
“The first supplies have already been started,” Interfax cited Shugayev as saying on Sunday at an aerospace trade show in Dubai.
He said that the first unit of an S-400 systems will arrive in India by the end of this year.
The $5.5bn deal for five long-range surface-to-air missile systems, which India says it needs to counter a threat from China, was signed in 2018.
India faces a range of financial sanctions from the United States under Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA), which names Russia an adversary alongside North Korea and Iran for its actions against Ukraine, interference in the U.S. 2016 elections and help to Syria.
New Delhi said it has a strategic partnership with both the United States and Russia while Washington told India it was unlikely to get a waiver from CAATSA.
Last year the United Stated imposed sanctions citing CAATSA on NATO ally Turkey for acquiring S-400 missiles from Russia. The sanctions targeted the main Turkish defence procurement and development body Presidency of Defence Industries.
Washington also removed Turkey from a F-35 stealth fighter jet program, the most advanced aircraft in the U.S. arsenal, used by NATO members and other U.S. allies.
Russia said it had offered Turkey its help in developing advanced fighter jets but no agreement has been reached so far.
“We are still at a stage of negotiations on this project,” RIA new agency quoted Shugayev as saying on Sunday. (Source: Reuters)
12 Nov 21. France warns Russia over Ukraine, Moscow denies weighing attack.
- Summary
- Diplomats say U.S. shared details of Russian military activities
- Russia dismisses suggestions it may attack Ukraine
- French and Russian ministers met in Paris for crisis talks
France on Friday warned Russia against harming Ukraine’s territorial integrity, after the United States shared with European allies its fears over Russian troop movements on the Ukrainian border and over a potential attack.
Four European diplomats told Reuters that U.S. officials had raised their concerns about an attack on Ukraine with their European Union allies at a briefing in Brussels. Two said the meeting was held on Wednesday with 30 ambassadors at the level of the NATO transatlantic alliance.
France’s foreign and defence ministers, Jean-Yves Le Drian and Florence Parly, issued an unusually blunt statement after meeting their Russian counterparts in Paris.
“The two ministers expressed their concerns about the deteriorating security situation in Ukraine and clearly warned of the serious consequences of any further possible damage to the territorial integrity of Ukraine,” the statement said.
Earlier in the day, Russia had dismissed as inflammatory suggestions Moscow might be weighing an attack and accused the United States of aggressive moves in the Black Sea.
The European diplomats declined to give further details on U.S. reasons or evidence for fearing an attack.
In addition, one diplomatic source said that last week at a North Atlantic Council meeting – the principal political decision-making body within NATO – Karen Donfried, Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs, briefed in more detail on her recent trip to Moscow and shared her concern about the troop build-up.
“The patterns of Russian behaviour are different from what we have seen before,” a NATO source said without elaborating. “So far, it is unclear if this military build-up is intended to lead to an incursion into Ukraine or if it is just another exercise.”
Russia annexed Crimea from Ukraine in 2014 and says the waters around it belong to Moscow now despite most countries continuing to recognise the peninsula as Ukrainian.
Russian-backed separatists took control of Ukraine’s eastern Donbass region that same year and soldiers on both sides continue to be regularly killed in the conflict there.
The Kremlin said it was up to Moscow where it deployed within its borders. “Such headlines do nothing more than pointlessly and groundlessly fuel tensions. Russia does not pose a threat to anyone,” said spokesman Dmitry Peskov.
Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, in Paris for the talks with Parly and Le Drian, was quoted by TASS as saying it was important to work with France to de-escalate the Ukrainian situation.
REBUKE
In another rare rebuke of Moscow, Paris earlier this week accused it of blocking efforts to put together a ministerial meeting between France, Germany, Russia and Ukraine that aims to push peace accords agreed in 2014. France and Germany accused Russia of imposing unrealistic conditions, something Moscow denies.
The European Union this week accused close Russian ally Belarus of encouraging thousands fleeing war-torn parts of the world to try to cross its borders.
Brussels is expected to impose new sanctions next week, diplomats have said. There is no suggestion at this stage that Russia is supporting Belarus operationally, although it has publicly chided the EU.
Russia’s ministry of defence said it detected six flights by NATO spy planes in airspace over the Black Sea, part of what it described as intensifying reconnaissance by the Western military.
The Russian military also said it was tracking U.S. naval ships in the Black Sea and accused Washington of studying the region as a potential theatre of war.
After returning from Washington, Ukraine Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said Kyiv and its Western allies had stepped up diplomatic efforts to warn Russia against launching a new military attack on Ukraine.
A spokeswoman at Germany’s foreign office said ministers from France, Germany and Ukraine would discuss the crisis on Monday in Brussels. (Source: Reuters)
12 Nov 21. U.S. lawmaker looks to block first major Saudi arms deal under Biden. Democratic U.S. Representative Ilhan Omar filed legislation on Friday seeking to block the sale of $650m air-to-air missiles to Saudi Arabia, the first major arms sale to the kingdom during President Joe Biden’s administration. Omar said she filed the measure, known as a joint resolution of disapproval, because of Saudi Arabia’s role in Yemen’s civil war, considered one of the world’s war humanitarian disasters, and its human rights record.
The Biden administration announced on Nov. 4 that it had approved the sale of 280 air-to-air missiles valued at up to $650m. Raytheon Technologies (RTX.N) makes the missiles.
“We should never be selling human rights abusers weapons, but we certainly should not be doing so in the midst of a humanitarian crisis they are responsible for. Congress has the authority to stop these sales, and we must exercise that power,” Omar said in a statement.
The measure’s prospects for stopping the sale are slim, since it would have to pass the U.S. Senate and survive a likely veto. But Omar’s action underscores continuing wariness about weapons sales to Riyadh among some lawmakers, despite the Biden administration’s intention to limit weapons sales to the kingdom to “defensive” equipment.
While Saudi Arabia is an important partner in the Middle East, U.S. lawmakers have refused to approve many military sales for the kingdom without assurances U.S. equipment would not be used to kill civilians. (Source: Reuters)
13 Nov 21. Belarus leader says he wants Russian nuclear-capable missile systems. Belarus wants Russian nuclear-capable Iskander missile systems to deploy them in the south and west of the country, President Alexander Lukashenko said in an interview with a Russian defence magazine published on Saturday. Russia is a close ally of Belarus, which the European Union has accused of engineering a crisis on its border by flying in thousands of migrants and pushing them to try to cross illegally into Poland. Brussels is gearing up to sanction Minsk.
Lukashenko told the National Defence magazine that he needed the Iskander mobile ballistic missile system, which has a range of up to 500 kilometres and can carry either conventional or nuclear warheads.
“I need several divisions in the west and the south, let them stand (there),” he said.
EU members Poland and Lithuania lie to the west of Belarus. Its south borders Ukraine. Lukashenko gave no indication of whether he had held any talks with Moscow about receiving the missile system. Russia’s Defence Ministry did not immediately reply to a request to comment. Belarus and Russia are formally part of a “union state” and have been in talks for years to move closer together. (Source: Google/Reuters)
12 Nov 21. Russia, Belarus hold joint paratrooper drills near Poland. Belarusian and Russian paratroopers staged joint drills on Friday near the Polish and Lithuanian borders, during a standoff between Belarus and the EU over migrants camped in freezing forests at the frontier.
The exercise at the Gozhsky training ground involved airborne units landing and carrying out combat training, including capturing and holding a bridgehead and searching and destroying enemy targets, the Belarusian defence ministry said.
Russia’s defence ministry confirmed that its paratroopers were taking part in the exercise. Both countries said troops would return to bases when the drills were over.
The drills involved Russian Ilyushin Il-76 military transport planes and helicopters of the Belarusian Air Force, Minsk said in a statement circulated on social media.
The European Union has accused Belarus of mounting a “hybrid attack” on the bloc by flying in thousands of migrants, mainly from the Middle East, and pushing them to try to cross illegally into Poland. It is gearing up to impose new sanctions on Minsk.
Neighbours of Belarus have expressed concern that the crisis could escalate into a military confrontation. read more
Belarus is a close ally of Moscow. President Alexander Lukashenko said this week he could cut off Russian gas supplies to Europe through pipelines over Belarus. But the Kremlin appeared to distance itself from that threat on Friday, saying Russia had not been consulted before Lukashenko’s remarks and would meet all gas delivery contracts. (Source: Google/Reuters)
12 Nov 21. Moscow won’t invade Ukraine — unless provoked: Russian envoy. Russia’s deputy U.N. ambassador said Thursday that Moscow will never invade Ukraine unless it is first provoked by its neighbor or someone else, then cited what he called many threats from Ukraine and provocative actions by U.S. warships in the Black Sea. Dmitry Polyansky was responding to a question about the buildup of troops along Russia’s frontier with Ukraine, which has led to stepped up U.S. pressure and an assurance Wednesday from Secretary of State Antony Blinken to the Ukrainian foreign minister that the American commitment to Ukraine’s security and territorial integrity is “ironclad” and will not change. Polyansky was asked if Russia planned to invade Ukraine.
“Never planned, never did, and never going to do it unless we’re provoked by Ukraine, or by somebody else” and Russia’s national sovereignty is threatened, he replied.
“There are a lot of threats coming from Ukraine,” Polyansky quickly added. “And don’t forget that the American warships around the Black Sea acting very close.”
“So, every day is a very difficult day to avoid direct clash in the Black Sea. We warned our American colleagues that this is a real provocation,” he told reporters at U.N. headquarters.
Blinken said the U.S. did not know Russia’s intentions but said Moscow’s “playbook” has been in the past to invent provocations along its border to justify military intervention.
“We don’t have clarity into Moscow’s intentions, but we do know its playbook,” he said. “If there are any provocations that we’re seeing, they’re coming from Russia,” and any Russian escalation along the border would be viewed with “grave concern.”
Russia has cast its weight behind a separatist insurgency in Ukraine’s east that erupted shortly after Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and has caused more than 14,000 deaths. Russia has repeatedly denied any presence of its troops in eastern Ukraine.
Ukraine’s Defense Ministry said last week that about 90,000 Russian troops are stationed not far from the border and in rebel-controlled areas in Ukraine’s east. It said specifically that units of the Russian 41st Army have remained in Yelnya, about 160 miles (260 kilometers) north of the Ukrainian border.
“We have the right to concentrate our troops wherever we want,” Polyansky said. “This is not Ukrainian territory. This is Russian territory”
“But if you read the threats that are being pronounced in Ukraine against Russia, against Russian territorial integrity, then you will understand that a certain precaution is a logical step in such a situation,” he said. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Military Times/AP)
12 Nov 21. More money for SANDF, Denel in medium term budget. Denel will be getting an extra R2.9bn in the 2021 Medium Term Budget, to cover debt, while the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) will receive an additional R700 m, mostly to cover the response to the July unrest.
Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced this in his medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) on 11 November.
He pledged ‘tough love’ for state-owned entities (SOEs) including Denel, which he said are a fiscal risk. Not every SOE will be rescued by the state and “some will have to fall.”
In the policy statement, Godongwana noted that “Denel is experiencing difficulties in meeting its obligations and is negotiating with stakeholders on a way forward. Government provided recapitalisations of R1.8 bn in 2019/20 and R576 m in 2020/21, and extended a R5.9 bn guaranteed debt facility to Denel. Several repayment obligations have fallen due this year. Government has allocated R2.9 bn in 2021/22 to settle these repayments.”
It is not clear how the bailout will affect Denel’s outstanding debts to suppliers and staff, who are respectively owed R900 m and R650m. Many staff have not been paid since May last year, while operational activities are significantly below capacity at 20-30% in most divisions. Revenue is 60% behind the year-to-date budget, the Department of Public Enterprises (DPE) revealed this week.
The DPE said that although Denel has an order book of around R11bn, liquidity constraints are hampering the translation of these opportunities into cash flows. It added that significant numbers of critical and experienced staff have left the company, but “there is still international interest to collaborate with Denel.”
Meanwhile, the MTBPS revealed that the South African National Defence Force (SANDF) will be getting an additional R700 m as part of 2021/22 spending. Much of this will go towards covering the cost of the SANDF’s response to July unrest under Operation Prosper. In September, National Treasury proposed this amount to cover the costs of military deployments internally in South Africa, and in Mozambique.
Of the R700m, R354 442 000 would go toward the compensation of employees and R324 260 000 towards goods and services. The South African Police Service will be getting an additional R250m.
The MTBPS noted that, “earlier this year, public violence in KwaZulu-Natal and Gauteng illustrated the need for improved capacity in this [peace and security] function. Both the South African Police Service and South African National Defence Force received additional funding through the Second Special Appropriation Bill to provide for unforeseen costs resulting from the unrest. Over the next few years, the Department of Defence will reprioritise funds to set up a rapid response unit. It will also implement reforms to manage longstanding pressure on compensation that is resulting in irregular spending.”
The government’s peace and security cluster, which includes the police and defence departments, is budgeting to spend on average R218.1bn a year over the next three years, of which more than 60% will go to compensation of employees.
Defence and state security spending is put at R54bn for 2020/21; R49.4bn for 2021/22; R48.9bn for the following year; R48.1bn for the next; and R50.3 bn for 2024/25. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
11 Nov 21. Russian troop movements show wider conflict is possible, top Ukraine official says. Ukrainian officials told Military Times that the gathering of Russian forces, tanks and short-range ballistic missile systems near the two countries’ border could offer the Russians an easy way to escalate an ongoing conflict. While U.S. military leaders remain reluctant to discuss the massing of Russian forces, Ukrainian officials were more direct.
“All available information indicates that the armed forces of Russia permanently sustain a powerful offensive grouping around Ukraine,” Roman Mashovets, deputy head of Ukraine’s Office of the President for national security and defense, told Military Times Wednesday.
During the second half of 2021, Russian forces “conducted a set of large-scale command and staff exercises nearby the Ukrainian border,” Mashovets said. But after the completion of the exercises, “units and subunits that participated in them remain in the European part of Russia, about [160 miles] from the state border with Ukraine.”
Of concern, Mashovets said, is that after exercises ended, only personnel returned to their permanent bases. However, combat and other military materiel like tanks, combat vehicles and “Iskander” short-range ballistic missile systems have remained near the Ukrainian border.
“It allows Russian authorities in very short terms to redeploy personnel and to form combat striking groups ready for offensive actions on the territory of Ukraine,” said Mashovets. “Thus, if Russia plans to extend aggression, additional redeployment of Russian “subunits to the border of Ukraine will be conducted.”
The equipment is visible in a series of satellite photos released this month from Maxar.
During a Wednesday afternoon press conference, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby described the Russian troop massing “as unusual in size and scope” but declined to expand on that assessment.
“We continue to see is unusual military activity inside Russia, but near Ukraine’s borders, and we remain concerned about that,” Kirby said. “And it’s not exactly clear what the Russian intentions are. We obviously would like to better understand that. And we don’t want to see any action further destabilize what is already a very tense part of the world. And we urge Russia to be clear about their intentions and to abide by their Minsk agreements.”
Kirby reiterated U.S. support for Ukraine.
“As you heard, [Defense] Secretary [Lloyd] Austin say many times when we were in Europe just a couple of weeks ago, our support for the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Ukraine is unwavering,” Kirby said.
The Russian embassy did not immediately return a request for comment.
The gathering of Russian forces near Ukraine, and its continued occupation of Crimea, is more than just a concern for Ukraine, said Mashovets, the Ukrainian president’s deputy.
“We see that the Russian Federation does not just show military aggression, but wages a full-scale hybrid war against Ukraine and the whole Western society,” said Mashovets. “It should be understood that by its actions and armed aggression, Russia daily undermines foundations of a democratic world, and Ukraine now not only has a military conflict with the Russian Federation over its territories, but actually acts as a great wall to protect the entire civilized world from the Russian aggression. This seemingly ‘small problem’ in the center of Europe cannot be ignored.”
As of Nov. 10, more than 32,000 Russian troops were in Crimea, Mashovets said.
All told, about 114,000 Russian troops are near the Ukrainian border and on the occupied territories of Donetsk, Luhansk and Crimea, Mashovets said.
“Currently, 36 battalion tactical groups are in constant readiness nearby our borders, 31 of which are deployed on a permanent basis. And this has never ceased to concern Ukraine, because in fact our country is in a state of permanent escalation from the Russian Federation side.” (Source: Defense News)
11 Nov 21. Is the nuclear subs plan a ‘pipedream’? Has Australia bitten off more than it can chew with its latest submarine procurement strategy under AUKUS?
The newly established AUKUS alliance — which promises the delivery of at least eight nuclear-powered submarines built in Australia as part of a knowledge-sharing arrangement — has largely been welcomed by the political class and stakeholders across Defence and defence industry.
Supporters have touted the capability benefits of a nuclear-powered submarine fleet, as well as the long-term advantages associated with accessing cutting-edge technology developed in the US and the UK.
However, some observers doubt the deal can deliver on its promises.
According to Geoff Crittenden, CEO of industry group Weld Australia, the nation does not have the infrastructure, skills or experience for a timely delivery of the nuclear-powered fleet.
“There was general consensus that building the Attack Class submarines would be a challenge for Australian industry — building nuclear-powered submarines presents an inordinate number of issues,” he writes.
“The skills, knowledge and expertise required to build a submarine are akin to those required to build a space craft chartered for the moon. Building a nuclear submarine is equivalent to building a space craft set for Mars and beyond. It is an entirely new quantum.”
Crittenden argues that without an existing nuclear industry, it would be difficult for industry partners to meet the local industry content requirements included in Defence contracts.
“While ambitious, the federal government’s local content requirements are of enormous benefit to Australian industry,” he notes.
“However, without exception, they have been extremely difficult to execute effectively on recent Defence projects.”
The Weld Australia CEO lists a number of challenges to achieving such targets, including:
- the complexity of the project, requiring a highly skilled workforce and investments in cutting-edge technology and rapid upskilling;
- the involvement of global contractors with priorities that extend beyond Australia’s borders; and
- the local industry’s inability to keep up with the speed and scale of delivery expectations.
“In some areas, and across some skillsets, there are gaps in the local industry. And this is in industries in which Australia already has proven experience—let alone nuclear power,” Crittenden continues.
“Mandating local industry content requirements is a powerful government tool that affords many benefits, but it is impossible to create industry capability and capacity overnight.
“As a result, the defence prime contractors can find themselves stuck between a rock and a hard place — the balance between delivering on time and on budget, and meeting local industry content requirements becomes unworkable.”
Crittenden goes on to lament the local skills shortage, claiming it is unlikely the next-generation submarines would be built in Australia, given the absence of welders in Australia certified to the standards required for nuclear-powered vessels.
“This will obviously impact local industry content requirements, as well as upskilling, technology transfer and the shipbuilding workforce in general,” he adds.
Australia would also need to invest in infrastructure capable of handling nuclear reactors during both the construction and maintenance phases.
“It’s highly unlikely that the people of Port Adelaide will warm to a nuclear facility located on their back doorstep. So, where is the federal government planning to situate this facility?” Crittenden writes.
He also flags crewing concerns, noting a lack of skilled nuclear engineers and captains.
“It takes years and years of experience to captain a nuclear submarine; Australia effectively needs mariners in training now to ensure they’re ready to captain submarines when construction is complete,” he observes.
“Australia already struggles to crew its Collins Class submarines, which need up to 50 people aboard. The US Fast Attack submarines require crews of around 130 people. How will Australia bridge this shortfall?”
In light of these obstacles, Crittenden claims it is unlikely nuclear-powered submarines would enter service until the 2040s, by which time the technology “could be obsolete”.
Crittenden concludes by questioning whether taxpayers should bear the cost of what he describes as the federal government’s “pipedream project”.
The Weld Australia CEO suggests the government may instead decide to purchase the vessels directly from the US or the UK.
“While there is no simple solution, the construction, operation and maintenance of nuclear submarines without a local nuclear industry will be challenging,” he writes.
“Industry will need to stand by for clarification from the federal government.” (Source: Defence Connect)
12 Nov 21. A house built on sand? The Russian-Chinese partnership. Despite recent military and economic co-operation, will the Russian and Chinese partnership outlive key geopolitical differences?
In decades gone, analysts would believe it incomprehensible that China and Russia would not only collaborate with one on military and economic affairs, but collaborate to project joint influence in the region. For decades following the Sino-Soviet split, the two nations were locked in a competition to exert competitive control over the developing world, gain hegemony over the world’s communist movements and be perceived as the global vanguard for anti-imperialism. It wasn’t so long ago that the US even tacitly worked with China. Throughout the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, clandestine intelligence units in the US and China would implicitly trade intelligence with one another to the detriment of Soviet forces in the nation. This implicit co-operation between the US and China to repel Soviet dominance in the developing world was even recognised by the body politic in the West. In the 1984 classic Red Dawn, the Wolverines (a group of high school students who fled into the woods to launch a guerrilla campaign against the invading Soviet forces) were briefed that China and the US fought on the same team against the Soviets. While seemingly trivial, such dialogue is indeed important as it is demonstrative of the lens through which the US, Russia and China perceived their relationships toward one another before the turn of the millennium.
Dr Elizabeth Wishnick, professor of political science at Montclair State University, last week unpacked the growing co-operation between Russian and China in War on the Rocks, examining the political realities of their individual and joint efforts in Afghanistan.
“Beijing and Moscow — once bitter adversaries — now cooperate on military issues, cyber security, high technology, and in outer space, among other areas. While it falls short of an alliance, the deepening Sino-Russian partnership confounds U.S. strategists. Some have proposed driving a wedge between the two countries, but this seems unlikely for the foreseeable future,” Dr Wishnick said.
Thus far, Dr Wishnick notes that Russia and China have successfully collaborated to exploit the post-US chaos in Afghanistan, as well as exercising co-operation in neighbouring Pakistan and the broader Central Asian region through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation.
Indeed, the pair have exercised disciplined joint political messaging on the Afghanistan issue. Recently, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov even asserted that China and Russia remain ready to “jointly manage changes” in the nation.
Such joint messaging has also been evidenced on a legal basis, in which Dr Wishnick argues that “Beijing and Moscow voted against the appointment of a UN rapporteur for human rights issues in Afghanistan. They have also taken some complementary initiatives in Central Asia to boost their individual security co-operation with Central Asian states.”.
Nevertheless, the grand strategy of both nations do not perfectly align – especially in their immediate region.
“China aims to integrate these regions economically into the Belt and Road Initiative, while keeping Indian influence at bay and addressing perceived security threats to the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region,” Dr Wishnick contends.
“By contrast, Russia’s objectives are to maintain its role as the primary security provider in what it sees as the greater Eurasian region and to balance its longstanding ties with India with a new approach to Pakistan.”
In addition to this, while co-operating with China in Afghanistan, Russia has demonstrated more willingness to reach an international and multilateral solution to the Afghanistan crisis than China.
“Despite some positive public signaling, Russia’s preference seems to be to engage with the broader international community on Afghanistan, not just China,” Dr Wishnick suggested.
“In a 25-minute speech at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations on Oct. 15, Zamir Kabulov, President Vladimir Putin’s envoy to Afghanistan, suggested a need for a broader negotiation process led by the United Nations. Notably, he did not discuss working with China.”
In addition to this, some Russian officials have even rebuked the Belt and Road Initiative in the region the reasons for which are seemingly obvious.
“[Sterrnik] cast doubt on the merit of economic integration plans for Central Asia developed by outside powers and highlighted the risks from foreign military bases, which presumably could include China’s unofficial base located just south of Shaymak, Tajikistan, near the Afghan border,” Dr Wishnick noted.
Perhaps one of the largest areas in which Chinese and Russian foreign policies diverge is regarding the status of India in the Asian region. Despite India’s growing relationship with the US, India is nevertheless a longstanding ally and trading partner of Russia.
“Moscow views New Delhi as a longtime partner and a key market for Russian defense equipment — even as India improves ties with the United States — and likely considers a greater Indian role in Afghanistan as a net positive. In April 2021, Russia and India began a 2+2 dialogue of their foreign and defense ministers, and in September they signed an intelligence-sharing agreement for cooperation against terrorism and drug trafficking,” Dr Wishnick outlines.
“A former Indian intelligence official suggested that Russia was now seeking closer defense and intelligence co-operation with India as a part of a broader strategy to boost Russian influence in the Indian Ocean and provide an alternative to other powers active in the region.”
While analysts do typically believe that the US and Indian relationship is becoming India’s preeminent geopolitical alliance, ongoing overtures from the Russian government to their long term ally and partner in India are demonstrative of the fact that Moscow is not willing to curtail their traditional alliances and partnerships to satisfy Beijing. Considering the evidence of diverging opinions on India, the Belt and Road Initiative and Russia’s (even if in name only) multilateral approach to Afghanistan – it seems likely that the Russian and Chinese collaboration may indeed be a short-term partnership to stave off a common threat. (Source: Defence Connect)
08 Nov 21. Abu Dhabi’s dilemma: Will the UAE ever operate the F-35? Talks over technology agreements. Debates about system integration. Concerns over cooperation with China and Russia. These are some of the pressure points involved in negotiations between the United Arab Emirates and the United States as the former seeks a fleet of F-35 aircraft. But buying what is arguably the most advanced fighter jet involves more than a simple commercial transaction; it’s like “renewing the marriage vows” between Abu Dhabi and Washington, said Danny Sebright, president of the U.S.-UAE Business Council. That has put the UAE at a crossroads: renew its military vows with the U.S. or turn eastward toward Russia and China.
“Our two military forces interoperate today in joint operations because they share common equipment and training,” Sebright told Defense News. “If this sale goes forward, the UAE will be making a new commitment in defense and military force cooperation with the U.S. for the future. By definition this will mean that the UAE and the U.S. will have agreed to renew their commitment to each other as strategic partners, and any cooperation or influence from Russia and China will be greatly diminished.”
West vs. East
The Biden administration has pressured the UAE to remove Chinese firm Huawei from its telecommunications network, with some fearing this could be an ultimatum where the F-35 deal hangs in the balance. Huawei entered the limelight during the Trump administration, with the federal government alleging the firm’s association with Beijing represents a security and espionage threat.
“Based on my information, the F-35/Reaper program is still stuck,” said Corrado Cok, a defense expert at Gulf State Analytics, referring to a $23bn arms package approved in the waning days of the Trump administration that included 50 F-35s, 18 MQ–9B Reaper drones, as well as thousands of munitions and hundreds of missiles. “The UAE remains unwilling to bow to Washington’s requests on the scaling down of its relations with China, especially over the issue of Huawei, which the U.S. has set de facto as a precondition for the deal.”
In 2016, Huawei and UAE-based telecommunications service provider “du” launched the world’s first commercial transport software-defined network on the host network to make the UAE’s traditional network more efficient. Three years later, the UAE’s Telecommunications Regulatory Authority asked the tech giant to open a “5G & IoT Joint OpenLab” in Dubai.
Anthony Cordesman, who holds the emeritus chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, isn’t convinced Huawei networks in the UAE could threaten the F-35′s security.
“Secure military communications have nothing to do with commercial communication. Huawei is an internet-linked firm, and it is not linked to many aspects of military operations or communications. They are probably completely different structures,” Cordesman said.
He acknowledged concerns that some Chinese systems could allow the government to read digital communications at the civil level, but stressed this isn’t something that should concern armed forces.
For its part, Russia has pitched an alternative to the American-made aircraft. Russian defense company Rostec and the UAE’s Defence Ministry launched in 2017 a joint venture to co-produce fifth-generation Sukhoi jets, which eventually gave birth to a potentially cheaper aircraft known as the Su-75.
“Yet, with the F-35 deal approved, the Su-75 venture would be set aside and any other Russian-Emirati program on air defense systems would be blocked by U.S. veto,” Cok said. “If finalized, the deal will limit the areas of cooperation with Russia and China because of the strings that the U.S. will most likely attach to it.”
Furthermore, explained Bilal Saab, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, interoperability with U.S. forces would suffer should the UAE choose a Chinese or Russian aircraft.
Where do negotiations stand?
The deal made with the Trump administration for the aircraft was put on hold after President Joe Biden took office. A spokesperson with the U.S. State Department said the new administration will continue processing the contract, but the deal specifics would undergo reviews and consultation with Emirati officials.
If the F-35 shows up at the Dubai Airshow, scheduled for Nov. 14-18, “this will be a strong signal that the negotiations are moving forward in a very positive direction,” Sebright said, noting he doesn’t expect a “breakthrough announcement” at the event.
“Both governments are involved in intense negotiations regarding the specifics of various aspects of the possible joint program. There are still many steps to go, since it is a very complex sale. The F-35 is the most sophisticated fighter in the U.S. arsenal and it is a gamechanger in military capability for any country that becomes a partner in the program,” he said.
Still under discussion are costs, levels of technological and operational capabilities, the provision of sensors and weapons systems integrated on any future Emirati F-35 fleet, and domestic industrial participation in the program. “Finally, with every country there is always a very sensitive policy discussion about … how the weapons system might be deployed. These provisos or agreed understandings on how the F-35 can be used can also take quite some time to conclude,” he added.
Cok noted the UAE has a network of lobbyists in Washington pushing for a final sale, specifically pointing to Tom Barrack. The chair of Trump’s 2017 inaugural committee recently pleaded not guilty to charges he secretly lobbied the U.S. on behalf of the UAE. F-35 manufacturer Lockheed Martin declined to comment on the potential deal. (Source: Defense News)
10 Nov 21. SA Army’s Modern Brigade put to the test. The first South African Army Modern Brigade, designed to respond to modern threats such as asymmetric warfare, is flexing its muscles at the Combat Training Centre at Lohatla ahead of the establishment of two more Modern Brigades. Nearly 4 800 personnel from 43 SA Brigade are taking part in the Northern Cape exercise, which is a chance for the SA Army to assess the status of combat readiness of the newly formed 1st Modern Brigade (Mechanised).
Chief of the South African National Defence Force (SANDF), General Rudzani Maphwanya, said a second Modern Brigade (Motorised) is being established in Bloemfontein and a third will be based in Pretoria. This is in response to the current security situation. SA Army Chief, Lieutenant General Lawrence Mbatha, added that the Modern Brigade is cognisant of the asymmetric and terrorism threats to South Africa. “The Modern Brigade is called that to respond to modern threats,” he said.
Planning for Exercise Ukuthula began in April and advanced teams began arriving at Lohatla at the end of September, with the exercise proper kicking off towards the end of October. A visitors’ day on 9 November saw the media, defence attaches and dignitaries including Deputy Defence Minister Thabang Makwetla witness a capability demonstration involving dozens of armoured vehicles, artillery, anti-aircraft defences and other SA Army equipment.
The field training exercise is a major component of the SA Army’s junior staff command course, with the next generation of landward operational unit commanders fine-tuning battle and management skills. These include conventional and peace support operations as well as borderline protection taskings. Under one of the exercise scenarios demonstrated on 9 November, a fictional African country had requested Southern African Development Community (SADC) assistance to help it defeat a rebel insurgency. SA Army troops and equipment then engaged in various exercises against ‘enemy’ forces, with junior staff command course learners being trained using African Union, United Nations and SANDF procedures – the peace support operation scenario include humanitarian relief, mediation/negotiation and other procedures. The South African Police Service (SAPS) is taking part in Exercise Ukuthula as well, demonstrating intelligence sharing and coordination with the SANDF as well as joint operations (cordon and search, patrols, road blocks, crowd management etc.).
In his address to guests following Tuesday’s demonstration, Maphwanya said the execution of the SANDF’s tasks depends on regular integrated combat readiness exercises. “We understand the dictum that if you want peace, you have to prepare for war,” he said, adding that “the more you sweat in training, the less you bleed in battle.”
He thanked participants for putting on a display that “can put shivers through the enemy” and also thanked troops deployed elsewhere, including in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). He said they have put Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) rebels there “on the back foot”, but warned the DRC’s M23 rebel group is rearing its head again, especially as they are aware of the Monusco drawdown. When Monusco withdraws, it’s Force Intervention Brigade, of which the SANDF is a part, “will be the last to leave.”
In addition to the DRC, Maphwanya mentioned other SANDF deployments, including with the Southern African Development Community Mission in Mozambique; the COVID-19 response operation Notlela; border protection operation Corona; and internal security Operation Prosper that helped quell internal unrest in July.
He said the SANDF was criticized in some quarters for being heavy-handed by deploying military vehicles during Operation Prosper, but Maphwanya said it was the appropriate equipment as the unrest was quelled. “We never had a situation where we used equipment against our people. We were ready for those that wanted to undermine the rule of law.” He added that the SANDF will respond again if required. In his address, Maphwanya said the declining defence budget is a challenge and urged political buy-in from the Department of Defence. “We need a defence force that is capacitated. The budget allocation is a priority…With a little support we can continue to ensure South Africa is secure and safe.”
Deputy Defence Minister Thabang Makwetla said “we are doing the best with the low level of resources available,” while Mbatha told the media that the SA Army can do better if the political will is there to support it.(Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
09 Nov 21. Taiwan says China can blockade its key harbours, warns of ‘grave’ threat. China’s armed forces are capable of blockading Taiwan’s key harbours and airports, the island’s defence ministry said on Tuesday, offering its latest assessment of what it describes as a “grave” military threat posed by its giant neighbour. China has never renounced the use of force to bring democratic Taiwan under its control and has been ramping up military activity around the island, including repeatedly flying war planes into Taiwan’s air defence zone. Taiwan’s defence ministry, in a report it issues every two years, said China had launched what it called “gray zone” warfare, citing 554 “intrusions” by Chinese war planes into its southwestern theatre of air defence identification zone between September last year and the end of August. Military analysts say the tactic is aimed at subduing Taiwan through exhaustion, Reuters reported last year. At the same time, China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is aiming to complete the modernisation of its forces by 2035 to “obtain superiority in possible operations against Taiwan and viable capabilities to deny foreign forces, posing a grave challenge to our national security”, the Taiwan ministry said.
“At present, the PLA is capable of performing local joint blockade against our critical harbours, airports, and outbound flight routes, to cut off our air and sea lines of communication and impact the flow of our military supplies and logistic resources,” the ministry said.
China views Taiwan as Chinese territory. Its defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen says Taiwan is already an independent country and vows to defend its freedom and democracy. Tsai has made bolstering Taiwan’s defences a priority, pledging to produce more domestically developed weapons, including submarines, and buying more equipment from the United States, the island’s most important arms supplier and international backer. In October, Taiwan reported 148 Chinese air force planes in the southern and southwestern theatre of the zone over a four-day period, marking a dramatic escalation of tension between Taipei and Beijing. read more The recent increase in China’s military exercises in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone is part of what Taipei views as a carefully planned strategy of harassment.
“Its intimidating behavior does not only consume our combat power and shake our faith and morale, but also attempts to alter or challenge the status quo in the Taiwan Strait to ultimately achieve its goal of ‘seizing Taiwan without a fight’,” the ministry said.
To counter China’s attempt to “seize Taiwan swiftly whilst denying foreign interventions”, the ministry vowed to deepen its efforts on “asymmetric warfare” to make any attack as painful and as difficult for China as possible.
That includes precision strikes by long-range missiles on targets in China, deployment of coastal minefields as well as boosting reserve training. (Source: Reuters)
08 Nov 21. China builds mockups of U.S. Navy ships in area used for missile target practice. China’s military has built mockups in the shape of a U.S. Navy aircraft carrier and other U.S. warships, possibly as training targets, in the desert of Xinjiang, satellite images by Maxar showed on Sunday. These mockups reflect China’s efforts to build up anti-carrier capabilities, specifically against the U.S. Navy, as tensions remain high with Washington over Taiwan and the South China Sea. The satellite images showed a full-scale outline of a U.S. carrier and at least two Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyers had been built at what appears to be a new target range complex in the Taklamakan Desert. The complex has been used for ballistic missile testing, the U.S. Naval Institute reported, quoting geospatial intelligence company All Source Analysis. China’s anti-ship missile programs are overseen by the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force (PLARF). China’s defence ministry did not immediately respond to a request for comment. According to the Pentagon’s latest annual report on China’s military, the PLARF conducted its first confirmed live-fire launch into the South China Sea in July 2020, firing six DF-21 anti-ship ballistic missiles into the waters north of the Spratly Islands, where China has territorial disputes with Taiwan and four Southeast Asian countries. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in July this year that the United States will defend the Philippines if it comes under attack in the South China Sea and warned China to cease its “provocative behaviour”. (Source: Reuters)
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