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28 Oct 21. Morocco increases defence budget with more procurement expected. Morocco’s draft 2022 budget was presented to the country’s Finance and Economic Development Committee on 25 October, with the defence budget increasing by 4.77% on the 2021 defence budget. Janes analysis of the Moroccan budget for the National Defence Administration and Royal Moroccan Armed Forces (RMAF) shows that Morocco’s core defence budget is rising by 6.07% from MAD47.44 billion (USD5.17 billion) to MAD50.32bn, driven largely by personnel spending increasing by 7.77% to MAD37.76bn. Additional investment in the military from other sources is bringing the overall total defence expenditure to MAD63.04 billion, a 4.77% increase on 2021’s budget. Overall spending is anticipated to be 17.62% of government expenditure in 2022, down from 18.15%.
Article 34 of Projet De Loi De Finances 76-21 Pour L’annee Budgetaire 2022 (Finance Bill 76-21 For Budget Year 2022) also increased the maximum ceiling for the procurement of equipment for the RMAF by 4.15% to MAD115.55bn. The article noted that the increase in the ceiling budget was in anticipation of additional procurements in 2023. While the procurement authorisation is significantly higher than the defence budget, this facility is understood to have never been drawn to its maximum, and functions as an emergency ceiling in case of a sudden requirement for military expenditure. (Source: Janes)
27 Oct 21. Military cannot subvert Sudan’s democratic transition without consequence. Statement by Alice Jacobs, UK Deputy Political Coordinator at the UN, at the Security Council briefing on the UN Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA).
Thank you Madam President and thank you to our briefers USG Lacroix, Special Envoy and His Excellency Thabo Mebki for your insightful updates and reflections, as well as your combined efforts over the past six months to support peace and UN peacekeepers in the region.
Madam President, firstly the United Kingdom joins fellow Council members in condemning the actions of the Sudanese Military this week to detain civilian members of government and dissolve transitional institutions. We call on the military to course correct and release those detained as well as to refrain from violence allow peaceful protest.
The UK welcomes the decision of the African Union this morning which sends a strong message that the Sudanese military cannot subvert Sudan’s democratic transition without consequence.
The United Kingdom is further concerned at the impact these events may have on the situation in Abyei and the already difficult operating circumstances for UNISFA.
This Council has repeatedly welcomed the recent rapprochement between the Governments of Sudan and South Sudan. This welcome shift in bilaterals relations has led to the temporary reopening of border crossing corridors and establishment of free trade zones along the border. We hope that despite the unilateral acts by the Sudanese military in Khartoum, this cooperation will continue.
More broadly while the United Kingdom welcomes efforts to strengthen bilateral relations, it is regrettable that renewed engagement has not translated into tangible improvements in Abyei, where ordinary citizens continue to suffer. We urge both countries to work together to reach a resolution on the final status of Abyei.
Madam President, the United Kingdom remains deeply concerned by the situation in Gok Machar and repeat our condolences at the death of a UNISFA peacekeeper last month.
The members of this Council delivered a unified message on 15 October, reiterating their full support for UNISFA and demanding that the Government of South Sudan facilitate the unimpeded implementation of UNISFA’s mandate.
The situation in Gok Machar is another example of the operational challenges UNISFA continues to face in fulfilling its mandate.
There has been limited progress made on the Council’s repeated requests to facilitate the operationalisation of Antony Airstrip, the issuing of outstanding visa requests, and the appointment of a civilian deputy Head of Mission.
We reiterate our call for both parties to address these longstanding limitations, particularly as we consider the reconfiguration of the peacekeeping Mission in Abyei.
In that regard Mr President, the United Kingdom takes note of the options for reconfiguration proposed in the Secretary-General’s strategic review of UNIFSA.
We commend the men and women of UNISFA for their ongoing efforts to address the evolving security challenges, including the facilitation of community dialogue and local peacebuilding and women’s empowerment initiatives.
The United Kingdom would also like to commend the dedication of Ethiopian peacekeepers in their support to peace and security in Abyei throughout the last decade. It is our sincere hope that the interests of the people of Abyei remain at the forefront of decision-making on the future configuration of UNISFA. We also call for regional tensions to be resolved through dialogue, and encourage regional partners as well as the UN to ensure current disputes do not damage the effectiveness of UNISFA. Finally, the United Kingdom urges all parties to fully respect International Humanitarian Law and allow humanitarian actors to deliver aid to those in need in all parts of Abyei, without hindrance. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
27 Oct 21. Australia not considering submarine stop-gap solution. An interim undersea warfare solution is not being pursued to fill a potential capability gap ahead of the delivery of Navy’s future nuclear-powered submarines, the Secretary of Defence has confirmed. Representatives from the Commonwealth government and the Australian Defence Force have fronted the Senate foreign affairs, defence and trade legislation committee to discuss the nation’s nuclear-powered submarine procurement plan, announced as part of the new AUKUS alliance between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. Appearing before the committee on Wednesday (27 October), Secretary of Defence Greg Moriarty, Chief of Navy Vice Admiral Michael Noonan, and Chief of Joint Capabilities Vice Admiral Jonathan Mead, were asked to shed light on the expected delivery timeline for the next-generation submarines, which will replace the ageing Collins Class fleet.
Labor Senator Penny Wong sought clarification regarding advice delivered to Prime Minister Scott Morrison, which suggested the new fleet would hit initial operating capability (IOC) before the end of the next decade.
In response, VADM Mead confirmed he expected at least one nuclear-powered submarine to be operational before 2040 under the “worst case scenario”.
“For the information that we have at hand, we are confident that we’ll have a boat in the water by the end of the next decade,” he said.
“But the work that we need to do with the US and the UK over the next 18 months is to drive that timeline as far left as possible.”
According to VVADM Mead, the new submarines could achieve IOC earlier than expected under the former Attack Class project, given designs for the UK’s Astute Class or the US’ Virginia Class submarines are already established.
“One of the risk mitigants is that the designs we’re looking at are mature designs, in-production designs, with countries that have great experience with nuclear-powered submarines,” VADM Mead noted.
“…I am driving hard to work with the US and the UK to get this first submarine delivered as soon as possible.
“That is an absolute priority for me.”
This comes weeks after the Chief of Navy told a separate parliamentary committee that the Collins Class fleet could remain in service into the 2050s.
In his latest appearance before Parliament, VADM Noonan said the existing fleet could be subject to further life-of-type extensions (LOTE) “if needed”.
“That would be dependent on the work and the rate of effort that the submarines undertake over the next 20 years,” he qualified.
But despite uncertainty over the transition, Defence is not considering an undersea stop-gap solution to fill potential capability gaps and reduce dependence on the ageing Collins Class vessels.
Secretary of Defence Greg Moriarty said the government would focus on enhancing capability across all warfighting domains.
“The department is looking to identify further additional non-submarine capabilities to provide us with range of capabilities including offensive strike, long-range strike, offensive cyber …” he said.
“All of these things are contributing to increasing the lethality of the ADF.”
Secretary Moriarty also ruled out a nuclear submarine leasing arrangement with the US or the UK but said Defence would consider ramping up joint-military activities.
“[What]we are going to do over the next 18 months is work with our partners to identify how soon we can get an Australian boat,” he said.
“We will, of course, be talking to them about how we can look at other options – additional visits by US and UK boats to the area, increasing co-crewing we do on US and UK boats.”
The Commonwealth government’s Nuclear-Powered Submarine Task Force has opened consultation with stakeholders in the US and UK.
The group’s considerations are expected to include requirements for design, construction, maintenance, infrastructure, industry capacity, nuclear safety, environmental protection, crewing and training.
The Task Force will also advise on building timeframes, costs and supply needs.(Source: Defence Connect)
27 Oct 21. Taiwan says it is not seeking an arms race with China. Taiwan is not seeking to get into an arms race with China but does need to defend itself and will not submit to pressure, its defence ministry said in a report to parliament on Wednesday. Tensions between Taiwan and China, which claims the democratically-governed island as its own territory, have spiked over the past year as Beijing ups its military and political pressure to force Taipei to accept Chinese sovereignty. That has included repeated missions by Chinese warplanes in Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, or ADIZ, which covers a broader area than Taiwan’s territorial air space which Taiwan monitors and patrols to give it more time to respond to any threats. China is in the midst of a military modernisation programme, building new aircraft carriers and stealth fighters, while Taiwan is also increasing military spending, especially on developing new missiles and submarines. In its report to parliament, Taiwan’s Defence Ministry described the situation in the Taiwan Strait that separates it from its giant neighbour as “severe and unstable” and labelled the actions of China’s military “provocation”.
“Taiwan will not engage in an arms race with the Chinese Communists’ military and will not seek military confrontation, hoping for peaceful coexistence across the strait,” it said.
“But in the face of the Chinese Communists’ threat to our national security, we will do our best to defend our country’s sovereignty and will never give in under duress.”
What it termed the “confrontation” between Taiwan and China would be “difficult to alleviate in the short term”.
The military will strive to hone its abilities to monitor Chinese aircraft and ships so it can react earlier, and will also exchange intelligence with foreign countries so it can be fully informed of the regional security situation, it added.
Speaking earlier on Wednesday in Beijing, a Chinese government spokesman reiterated their determination to prevent Taiwan’s formal independence and bring the island under China’s rule, preferably peacefully.
But Ma Xiaoguang, spokesman for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, added: “We do not promise to renounce the use of force and reserve the option to take all necessary measures”.
Democratically-ruled Taiwan says it is an independent country and will defend itself if attacked. The tensions have sparked international concern of a conflict that could pit the United States and its allies against China. (Source: Google/Reuters)
26 Oct 21. South Korea, Indonesia move closer to KF-21 agreement, says DAPA. South Korea and Indonesia are edging closer to an agreement about Jakarta’s financial commitment to the programme to develop the KF-21 Boramae multirole fighter aircraft, the Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) in Seoul told Janes.
A DAPA spokesperson said that the two countries remain in talks over Indonesia’s payments on the project but that the agency is confident that an agreement can be reached soon. The spokesperson also indicated that once the agreement is in place, Indonesia’s position in the KF-21 programme could expand.
“The Republic of Korea and Indonesia are narrowing the gap between each other’s position with regards to repayments through a number of negotiations,” said the DAPA spokesperson. “DAPA is very positive that the payment issue will be resolved.”
In 2015 the two countries agreed to invest KRW8.8trn (USD7.5bn) to develop the KF-21, with Indonesia paying 20% of development costs in return for access to technologies and know-how. Under this accord, payments were scheduled to be made by Indonesia through to 2028, but Jakarta ceased these imbursements in March 2020.
Negotiations since then have been aimed at finalising a new repayment structure that Indonesia is willing to adhere to. Pointing to a commitment to the programme, Indonesia sent more than 30 engineers to rejoin the KF-21 programme in August 2021 and their number is expected to grow to approximately 100 by the end of the year. The engineers had ceased work on the programme in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. (Source: Janes)
26 Oct 21. Dutton dismisses subs obsolescence claims. The defence minister has backed the government’s long-term investment in a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines amid suggestions the platform could be obsolete upon delivery.
In an op-ed submitted to the Australian Financial Review, Minister for Defence Peter Dutton touted the capability benefits of a prospective fleet of at least eight nuclear-powered submarines, promised under the new AUKUS partnership between Australia, the UK and the US.
Minister Dutton said the Royal Australian Navy’s future submarines — expected to be modelled on either the US Navy’s Virginia Class or the Royal Navy’s Astute Class vessels — would possess enhanced stealth, speed, manoeuvrability, endurance and survivability.
He noted nuclear-powered submarines are built to carry a larger suite of advanced weapons and deploy underwater vehicles.
Minister Dutton added the deal would bolster interoperability between the AUKUS allies, supporting a bolder military posture amid mounting tensions in the Indo-Pacific.
The defence minister also addressed obsolescence claims, with some observers suggesting submarines could become superfluous in lieu of emerging underwater detection technology.
According to Roger Bradbury, emeritus professor of the Australian National University, the age of subs may be “coming to an end”, with emerging R&D threatening to undermine the platform’s specialised stealth capabilities.
“There is a huge and growing push of science and technology into sensing the oceans. This is being driven not only by military needs, but also by economic and environmental needs. And it is leading to a considered view that the oceans will become ‘transparent’ over the coming decades,” he said in a piece published by Defence Connect.
“A transparent ocean will be the result of a coming integration of sensing systems not yet developed, and it is likely to come together, when it does, quickly.
“The submarine era will likely end with a bang not a whimper.”
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But in his defence of the AUKUS deal, Minister Dutton stressed that technological advancements may also further underwater stealth capability.
“Those who argue that developments in detection systems and autonomous underwater vessels will make crewed submarines redundant forget that technology cuts both ways,” he said.
“The innovations of tomorrow may just as readily shield a submarine from detection.”
Minister Dutton added that Australia “must deal with present realities”, noting that more than half of the world’s 470 in-service submarines are operating in Indo-Pacific waters.
“Were Australia not to invest in submarines – especially as a maritime and trade-dependent island nation – we would be dangerously exposed,” the minister warned.
The Commonwealth government has established a Nuclear-Powered Submarine Task Force, responsible for working with US and UK stakeholders over the next 18 months to determine a procurement pathway for Australia.
The group’s considerations are expected to include requirements for design, construction, maintenance, infrastructure, industry capacity, nuclear safety, environmental protection, crewing and training.
The Task Force will also advise on building timeframes, costs and supply needs. (Source: Defence Connect)
25 Oct 21. Sudanese army dissolves government and imposes state of emergency. Takeover follows tensions within military and civilian wings of transitional government. Sudan’s army has dissolved the government and declared a state of emergency in what amounts to a military coup after months of tension between the civilian and military wings of the transitional ruling body. The military takeover, which prompted people to take to the streets of the capital Khartoum in protest, was announced on television on Monday by General Abdel Fattah Burhan, chair of the sovereign council that had been overseeing the transitional government. He said the armed forces had taken control but would appoint a technocratic government as well as a constitutional court and a legislative council. The military would prepare the country for elections in July 2023, he said. Hours earlier, the culture and information ministry said in a Facebook post that the armed forces were holding Prime Minister Abdalla Hamdok and other political figures. It said in a later post that Burhan “announced the seizure of power in a military coup”. The transitional government came into power in 2019 after months of civilian protests against the 30-year regime of Omar al-Bashir. Although protesters and civilian officials referred to the toppling of Bashir as a “revolution”, it was the military that ultimately brought his regime to an end. In recent months, the loose coalition of forces that helped topple Bashir has fractured as economic hardship bites, with inflation running at nearly 200 per cent. Nabil Adib, a prominent human rights lawyer in Khartoum, said there had been a breakdown in relations between the military and civilians. “There are divisions and differences of opinion and internal problems,” he said, referring to splits within the broad coalition of civilian forces, many over the direction of economic policy.
A statement from Hamdok’s office posted by the culture and information ministry on its Facebook page, which managed to circumvent an internet blockade, said the prime minister was “kidnapped” and called on the “Sudanese people to come out and demonstrate using all peaceful means possible . . . to take back their revolution from these thieves”. “Military forces fired live bullets at demonstrators who rejected the military coup,” said the ministry, which is loyal to Hamdok, after protesters flocked to the streets of Khartoum. At least 12 people have been injured in clashes, according to the Sudan Doctors Committee trade union. The military takeover, which happened in the early hours of Monday not long after US special envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman left Khartoum, was condemned by the international community. In a statement on Monday, the US government said it was “deeply alarmed” by the development, which would contravene “the democratic aspirations of the Sudanese people and is utterly unacceptable. As we have said repeatedly, any changes to the transitional government by force puts at risk US assistance.” Moussa Faki Mahamat, chair of the African Union Commission, called for the “immediate resumption of consultations between civilians and the military” and urged the release of all “arrested political leaders”.
French president Emmanuel Macron said “France condemns the attempted coup in Sudan in the strongest terms”, while EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell demanded that both sides “put back on track the transition process”. The culture and information ministry said on Monday that internet services had been cut off from mobile phone networks and bridges were closed by military forces. NetBlocks, which monitors internet shutdowns globally, confirmed the disruption to services. Mo Ibrahim, a prominent British-Sudanese businessman, said the military had been gearing up for a coup for weeks, using the “veneer of protests” and economic chaos as cover for its actions. “It is a very very sad development, but this is not over,” he said, referring to what he called the aspiration of millions of ordinary Sudanese for a democratic government. The government had undertaken a series of economic reforms designed to revive the near-bankrupt economy, including removing costly fuel subsidies and moving to a more realistic exchange rate. But the resulting hardship added to popular discontent. Sudanese businesspeople said the government had failed to deal with a blockade of the main road from Port Sudan for the past five weeks, adding to the already desperate economic situation. (Source: FT.com)
23 Oct 21. Russian, Chinese warships hold first joint patrols in the Pacific. Russian and Chinese warships held their first joint patrols in the Western part of the Pacific ocean on October 17-23, Russia’s defence ministry said in a statement on Saturday. Moscow and Beijing, which staged naval cooperation drills in the Sea of Japan earlier in October, have cultivated closer military and diplomatic ties in recent years at a time when their relations with the West have soured. The naval manoeuvres have been closely watched by Japan which said earlier this week that a group of 10 vessels from China and Russia sailed through the Tsugaru Strait separating Japan’s main island and its northern island of Hokkaido.
“The group of ships passed through the Tsugaru Strait for the first time as part of the patrol,” Russia’s defence ministry said in the statement. The strait is regarded as international waters.
“The tasks of the patrols were the demonstration of the Russian and Chinese state flags, maintaining of peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region, and guardianship of the subjects of maritime economic activities of the two countries,” the ministry added. (Source: Google/Reuters)
15 Oct 21. China is launching equivalent of Royal Navy every four years. New Chief of Defence Staff must plot a course that mixes cooperation, competition and occasional confrontation to counter the Asian giant. Anything less than a successful transformation to meet the threats of the future – a timeframe that would be better thought of in terms of months rather than years – will shatter the foundations underpinning any notion of a Global Britain. The tragedy of the recent death of Major General Matt Holmes, whose funeral on Wednesday in Winchester Cathedral was attended by 700 mourners, is that Britain has lost a deeply empathetic and thoughtful man with sound ideas about how best to operate a military force thousands of miles from the homeland. Adml Radakin will need such people.
They disagreed about the role of Commandant General Royal Marines, but when it came to the need to project power to underwrite the international rules-based order, Gen Holmes and Adml Radakin were in the same boat.
They agreed on the need to change and the need to get out in the world building partnerships. It’s not about having the marines turn up on D-Day, in the words of one senior officer. Better to be there early to prevent conflict in the first place.
It speaks of a forward-deployed and persistently engaged force, underpinned by technology and integrated across all arms of the Government.
Adml Radakin will reprioritise short-term military touchpoints in favour of a more persistent, and in places permanent, presence CREDIT: Andrew Matthews /PA
And which region of the world seems most likely to provide a flashpoint for the next global military emergency? Answer: the Indo-Pacific. It is of interest to Britain because of the potential to disrupt global trade, harm allies and threaten British citizens.
The Government’s recent Integrated Review of defence, foreign, security and development policy said Britain must “tilt” to the Indo-Pacific region.
The review, seen as the cross-Whitehall blueprint for the next generation of British statecraft, was clear: international politics is returning to an era of state-on-state competition.
Ken McCallum, the head of MI5, said Russia provides “bursts of bad weather” but it is China that is “changing the climate”.
Unlike the challenge of the Soviet Union, the West’s relationship with China is one of cooperation, competition and occasional confrontation, all at the same time. That mix makes for difficult politics and an even harder problem-set for the development of military power.
Since 2014, China has launched more submarines, warships, principal amphibious vessels and auxiliaries than the total number of ships currently serving in the navies of the UK, Germany, India, Spain and Taiwan, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
In terms of tonnage, China is launching the equivalent of the entire Royal Navy every four years.
That level of military ambition is already having political ramifications, as the Asian giant seeks to literally redraw lines on the map (of the South China Sea, at least).
Challenges over sovereign rights in the region are seen by many as a warm-up act for the main event – an attempt to reunify, by military action if necessary, Taiwan with China by 2049. Whitehall officials view that date as unrealistically hopeful – although no less depressing – and warn a significant event in the next five to eight years is more likely.
In a speech in July this year to celebrate the centennial of the Chinese Communist Party, President Xi Jinping said: “Resolving the Taiwan question and realising China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakable commitment of the Communist Party of China.
“We must take resolute action to utterly defeat any attempt toward ‘Taiwan independence,’ and work together to create a bright future for national rejuvenation. No one should underestimate the resolve, the will, and the ability of the Chinese people to defend their national sovereignty and territorial integrity.”
Adml Radakin will reprioritise short-term military touchpoints in favour of a more persistent, and in places permanent, presence.
The “transformation agenda” he initiated in the Navy as First Sea Lord will be expanded across the Armed Forces as CDS.
The Ministry of Defence’s attache network is expanding by a third, looking for business, including of the military sort, explaining and espousing Britain’s values and interests.
The Royal Navy now has a Type-23 frigate permanently assigned to the Gulf. Similarly, HMS Medway now focuses on the Caribbean with HMS Trent in the Mediterranean and around Africa.
The Indo-Pacific region has not had a permanent Royal Navy presence since the Hong Kong squadron disbanded. The deployment of HMS Spey and HMS Tamar, two Batch 2 River-Class Offshore Patrol Vessels, seeks to change that and signal to allies and potential future partners Britain’s commitment to the region.
Singapore, Malaysia, Australia and Japan will likely be visited regularly, for supplies, joint exercises and in support of wider government initiatives.
Two new Royal Marine Littoral Response Groups will have particular focus on Europe’s northern flank and the Middle East, the latter based in Duqm in Oman.
The Army and RAF similarly will look to increase the duration of deployments and build deeper relationships.
It all speaks of prioritising availability over quantity. The latter matters, of course, but doesn’t always need to fly a union flag.
If China is setting the weather now, rather than try to build our way to relevance – a futile hope – Adml Radakin will set the Armed Forces the task of building relationships across the world for when the storm comes. (Source: Daily Telegraph)
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