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29 Sep 21. Russia’s Putin and Turkey’s Erdogan hold Syria, defence talks. The presidents of Russia and Turkey on Wednesday held talks on curbing renewed violence in northwest Syria and on possibly expanding Moscow’s sales of military defence systems to Ankara despite U.S. objections.
The talks took place in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi and the Kremlin said that President Vladimir Putin was ending a period of coronavirus-related self-isolation by meeting Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan. read more
Neither leader made any detailed statements to the media after the talks, though Putin thanked Erdogan for the visit which he called useful and substantive.
Turkish officials said before the meeting that Erdogan would press Putin for a return to a ceasefire agreed last year to end a Russian and Syrian army assault on Turkey-backed fighters in Syria’s Idlib region. read more
“The steps we take together regarding Syria carry great importance. The peace there is dependent on Turkey-Russia ties,” Erdogan told Putin at the start of their talks.
Putin made only a passing reference to Syria in his opening comments, saying it was one of the areas where the two countries cooperated fairly successfully.
The Russian leader said negotiations with Turkey were sometimes difficult but that the two countries had learnt how to find mutually beneficial compromises.
A potential Turkish purchase of more Russian S-400 missile defence batteries was on the agenda too, something that Washington has made clear it strongly objects to.
In an apparent reference to the Americans, Erdogan told Putin he wanted to discuss further defence cooperation regardless of U.S. objections.
“At the UNGA (U.N. General Assembly), the typical persons especially asked us about certain issues specifically of course,” Erdogan told Putin.
“We gave them the necessary response anyway. It is not possible for us to turn back from the steps we took. I especially believe this: it is of great importance for us to continue by strengthening Turkey-Russia ties every day.”
NATO member Turkey bought Russian S-400 missile defence batteries in 2019, triggering U.S. sanctions against its defence industries and warnings from Washington of further action if it bought more Russian equipment.
Erdogan last week indicated Turkey still intended to procure a second batch of S-400s, saying no country could dictate Ankara’s actions. (Source: Reuters)
01 Oct 21. N. Korea says it fired ‘remarkable’ new anti-aircraft missile in test. North Korea fired a newly developed anti-aircraft missile on Thursday, state media KCNA reported, the latest in a recent series of weapons tests that has come as denuclearisation talks with the United States have been in deadlock. It was North Korea’s second known weapons test this week after the launch of a previously unseen hypersonic missile on Tuesday. It has also fired ballistic missiles and a cruise missile with potential nuclear capabilities in recent weeks.
The tests highlighted how North Korea has been steadily developing increasingly sophisticated weapons, raising the stakes for efforts to press it to give up its nuclear and missile programmes in return for U.S. sanctions relief.
The Academy of Defence Science, a military weapons developer, said the test was aimed at confirming the practical functionality of the missile’s launcher, radar, comprehensive battle command vehicle and combat performance, the official KCNA news agency reported on Friday.
The missile has new key technologies such as twin rudder control and double impulse flight engine, it said.
South Korea’s military said detailed analysis was needed to verify the KCNA report.
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un did not appear to have attended the test, which was instead overseen by Pak Jong Chon, a member of the ruling Workers’ Party’s powerful politburo and Central Committee.
“The remarkable combat performance of the new-type anti-aircraft missile with features of rapid responsiveness and guidance accuracy of missile control system as well as the substantial increase in the distance of downing air targets has been verified,” KCNA said, citing the academy.
North Korea has said in recent weeks that its weapons tests are aimed at boosting its defence capabilities just as other countries do, accusing the United States and South Korea of “double standards” and “hostile policy” toward it.
On Wednesday, Kim said he has no reasons to attack South Korea and was willing to reopen severed inter-Korean hotlines. But it criticised U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration for using “more cunning ways and methods” in pursuing hostile policy while proposing dialogue.
South Korea’s Unification Ministry, which is in charge of North Korean affairs, said the North did not answer the lines on Friday but it vowed to continue efforts to restore the channels and resume talks.
South Korean President Moon Jae-in, in a speech celebrating the 73rd Armed Forces Day on Friday, did not refer to North Korea but said he was committed to fostering lasting peace while sternly responding to any life-threatening action.
Analysts say the North’s carrot-and-stick approach is aimed at securing international recognition as a nuclear weapons state and driving a wedge between the United States and South Korea, with an eye on Moon’s desire for a diplomatic legacy before his term ends in May.
The Biden administration has said it has no hostile intent toward North Korea and has called on it to accept its offers of talks to break the impasse over denuclearisation negotiations. (Source: Reuters)
29 Sep 21. Defence Acquisition Council Approves Proposals of Value Rs.13,165 cr.. The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) in its meeting of 29 September 2021 held under the Chairmanship of Raksha Mantri Shri Rajnath Singh accorded Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) for Capital Acquisitions proposals for modernization and operational needs of the Indian Armed Forces amounting to approx. Rs.13,165cr. ($1.77bn at today’s exchange rate—Ed.) Of the total amount approved, procurement worth Rs. 11,486 crore (87%) is from the domestic sources.
Key approvals include helicopters, guided munition and rocket ammunition. Looking into the need of the Indian Army for an Advanced Light Helicopters (ALH) Squadron, to improve its integral lift capability ensuring its operational preparedness, the DAC accorded approval of procurement of 25 ALH Mark III helicopters from M/s HAL under Buy Indian-IDDM at an approx. cost of Rs.3,850 crore, in keeping with the continued thrust towards ‘Aatmanirbhar Bharat’ and ‘Make in India’.
Giving boost to Indigenous Design and Development of ammunitions, DAC accorded approval for procurement of Terminally Guided Munition (TGM) and HEPF/RHE Rocket Ammunition under Buy (Indian-IDDM) category at an approx. cost of Rs.4,962 crore from domestic sources. Other proposals worth Rs. 4,353 cr. were also accorded AoN by the DAC. In addition, the DAC also approved a few amendments to the DAP 2020 as a part of Business Process Re-engineering to ensure further ease of doing business for the industry as well as measures to enhance procurement efficiency and reducing timelines. (Source: https://www.defense-aerospace.com/ Indian Ministry of Defence)
29 Sep 21. Ukraine is set to buy 24 Turkish drones. So why hasn’t Russia pushed back? Ukraine hopes to quickly turn around a contract to buy 24 drones from Turkey, but the former’s adversary and the latter’s ally could upend the potential sale. Turkey is Russia’s closest ally in NATO — which Ukraine wants to join — but Ankara and Moscow have diverging interests over Kyiv.
The Ukrainian government announced Sept. 15 that it’s seeking 24 Bayraktar TB2 combat drones in the coming months. Two years ago, TB2 producer Baykar Makina won a contract to sell six TB2s to Ukraine. The $69m contract also involved the sale of ammunition for the armed version. The private firm has also won contracts to sell the TB2 to Qatar, Azerbaijan and Poland.
The TB2 is a medium-altitude, long-range tactical UAV system. It was developed by Kale-Baykar, a joint venture of Baykar Makina and the Kale Group. The UAV operates as a platform for conducting reconnaissance and intelligence missions. The aircraft features a monocoque design and integrates an inverse V-tail structure. The fuselage is made of carbon fiber, Kevlar and hybrid composites, whereas the joint segments constitute precision “computer numerical control” machined aluminum parts. Its maximum payload exceeds 55 kilograms, and the standard payload configuration includes an electro-optical camera module, an infrared camera module, a laser designator, a laser range finder and a laser pointer.
Each TB2 system consists of six aerial vehicles, two ground control stations, three ground data terminals, two remote video terminals and ground-support equipment.
A senior Turkish procurement official said Ankara and Kyiv have an understanding to finalize the potential deal before year’s end. “There is strong political support for this contract from both governments,” he said.
Industry sources estimate the contract value at about $300 m.
Ukraine’s ally
Russia and Ukraine are tied up in conflict over the annexation of Crimea, which Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry spokesman Tanju Bilgic described Sept. 20 as unlawful.
Turkey has been a beneficiary of Ukraine’s defense spending for years. For example, in 2019, state-controlled Ukrainian company Ukrspecexport and Baykar Makina signed a deal to co-develop and co-produce “sensitive technologies in defense and aerospace.” And in December 2020, a Turkish shipyard penned a $200 m deal to sell two Ada-class corvettes to Ukraine. The Ukrainian Navy will deploy the corvettes in both the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov, both disputed waters between Russia and Ukraine.
The allies are also cooperating on engine technology to power Turkish-made drones.
But Turkey is also involved in the Russian arms trade. Turkey purchased the Russian-made S-400 air defense system in 2019, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is negotiating for a second batch. In a Sept. 26 interview with CBS News, Erdogan said he would consider buying a second Russian missile system in defiance of strong objections by the United States.
In response to the first S-400 acquisition, the U.S. removed Turkey from the American-led, multinational Joint Strike Fighter program that builds the F-35 fighter. And Washington also placed sanctions on Ankara under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act.
Turkey has since said it’s considering Russian-made fighter jets as an alternative to the F-35s in can no longer access. (Source: Defense News)
29 Sep 21. Malian government and the Wagner Group: Minister for Africa’s statement. The UK is deeply concerned by the Malian government’s discussions with Russian private military company
Minister for Africa Vicky Ford’s statement, “The UK is deeply concerned by consultations between the Malian government and the organisation known as the Wagner Group, in which Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin holds a position of responsibility. Prighozin is subject to UK sanctions for significant foreign mercenary activity in Libya and multiple breaches of the UN arms embargo.”
The Wagner Group is a driver of conflict and capitalises on instability for its own interests, as we have seen in other countries affected by conflict such as Libya and the Central African Republic.
Wagner has committed human rights abuses, undermined the work of international peacekeepers, and sought control of mineral resources, to the detriment of local citizens and their economy. Wagner does not offer long-term security answers in Africa.
We support ECOWAS in urging the Malian government to reconsider their engagement with Wagner in light of the implications that any deal would have on stability within its own borders and the wider region. The UK also reiterates the importance of the political transition in Mali and of elections being held within the agreed time frame.
The UK contributes to security in Mali, in particular through our MINUSMA deployment and contribution to the French-led counter terrorism approach. With our allies and partners we will keep this situation under close review. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
28 Sep 21. Could Britain stop Argentina from buying the JF-17 warplane?
Argentina insists reports the country is buying the JF-17 Thunder warplane are premature, but analysts believe it could still succeed where other fighter types failed — mostly as a result of British pressure.
Speculation arose after media reports highlighted a request in Argentina’s fiscal 2022 draft budget for $664m to purchase 12 JF-17s from Pakistan.
However, Argentina’s embassy in Islamabad told Defense News that “no final decision has been made, as there are five alternatives currently being assessed.” When asked to identify those contenders, the embassy responded: “We don’t have any information on those alternatives.”
Andrei Serbin Pont, the director of Argentinean think tank CRIES and a former adviser at the country’s Strategic Affairs Secretariat, said there’s been a history of such speculation. Argentina has previously “included funds for acquisition of aircraft in the budget, but the aircraft were not acquired. This occurred with Mirage F-1Ms and with Kfirs (canceled last minute in 2015),” he explained.
He believes the JF-17 is an attractive choice for Argentina because the aircraft is “out of reach of possible U.K. vetoing of parts, and at the same time it is the only new aircraft within the budgetary restraints of the Argentine Air Force.” (Source: Defense News)
28 Sep 21. UK and Japan begin talks on deeper Defence relationship. The UK and Japan have agreed to commence formal negotiations on a Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) to deepen the defence relationship between the two countries. Japan is a vital and like-minded partner for the UK in the Indo Pacific region. This Agreement, when concluded, will help enable the two countries and their militaries to work together to address global security challenges and counter shared threats. Importantly, it matches the UK’s strategic shift in effort and resource to the Indo Pacific, as set out in the Integrated Review in March. These talks will bring that commitment into reality and send a clear signal about the UK and Japan’s determination to deepen bilateral defence cooperation and support for the rules-based international order.
Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said, “Japan is Britain’s close security partner in Asia, with shared values and common strategic interests. This sends a clear signal about our determination to deepen bilateral defence cooperation, and the UK’s commitment to the Indo Pacific region.”
The aim is to create the conditions for a deeper, more regular and complex defence engagement programme, setting out the terms and conditions for UK and Japanese personnel undertaking activity in one another’s countries which makes bi-lateral activities like training and joint exercises easier and quicker to facilitate – consequently feeding into a more regular programme of events.
Foreign Secretary Liz Truss said, “Deepening defence ties with Japan is an important part of our commitment to ensuring an open and secure Indo-Pacific and a clear demonstration of Global Britain in action.
“Our two island democracies believe in the same fundamental freedoms and a strong economic and security partnership with Japan is crucial to Britain’s long-term interests.”
The commencement of talks comes soon after the UK’s Carrier Strike Group visited Japan, in a sign of our firm commitment to supporting shared security challenges in the region. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
24 Sep 21. Legal Mechanisms of AUKUS Explained. On Sept. 15, the Biden administration unveiled a new strategic security pact between the United States, the United Kingdom and Australia. The agreement, dubbed AUKUS, sets out to deepen defense ties between the three countries by integrating military capabilities across naval, cyber, artificial intelligence, quantum computing and other undersea domains while also setting the stage for an enhanced U.S. force posture in Australia. Shortly after AUKUS was announced, U.S. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin further elaborated that the U.S. will increase rotational deployments of U.S. military aircraft to the country.
At the heart of AUKUS is a commitment by the U.S. and the U.K. to provide Australia—a non-nuclear weapons state—with at least eight nuclear-propelled submarines that will operate using highly enriched uranium (HEU). This marks the first time that the U.S. will share this technology with a foreign country since a 1958 mutual defense agreement with the U.K. The U.S. has not otherwise shared such technology with another state since the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) went into force in 1970. The three countries have informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) of their intentions and have begun an 18-month consultation process to ensure that the provision of nuclear expertise and technology will be in accordance with each nations’ respective NPT obligations.
AUKUS has already sparked a hullabaloo, both with allies such as France, which was left out of the arrangement, and with adversaries such as China, which is an unnamed target of the arrangement. This post explains the naval nuclear propulsion portion of AUKUS, its operation and legal basis, and the controversy surrounding it.
Background on Naval Nuclear Propulsion Technology
The nuclear-powered submarines that the United States will supply to Australia will take approximately a decade to build and deploy. They will make the island country the first non-nuclear weapons state to possess naval nuclear propulsion technology. While many countries have attempted to develop nuclear propulsion capabilities over the years, few have been successful. For example, Brazil’s naval nuclear propulsion program is approximately 40 years old and has been marred by technical hurdles that have repeatedly delayed the program. Canada gave up on its own program in 1990, while South Korea has had fits and starts to a nuclear propulsion program since 1994.
At present only six countries—all nuclear weapons states—have nuclear-powered submarine capabilities. This includes five NPT signatories (U.S., U.K., Russia, China and France) and India. The U.S. deployed its first nuclear-powered submarine, the USS Nautilus, in 1955 and shared the technology shortly thereafter with the U.K. as part of a mutual defense agreement still in force today. Over the intervening decades, U.S. nuclear propulsion capabilities have improved dramatically. Whereas the USS Nautilus had a nuclear core that endured for approximately 62,000 miles, today’s nuclear cores continue to operate for over 1 m miles. This in turn means that nuclear-powered submarines have the capacity to remain at sea for several months, limited only by food supplies and crew endurance.
The nuclear reactor aboard the submarines operates by generating high amounts of power that propels the vessels at speeds as fast as or faster than ships and that does so relatively quietly, which makes them difficult to both detect and defend against.
The appeal of such technology is self-evident, but the engineering has proved difficult to master. Naval nuclear propulsion requires a high output of energy in a very limited amount of space under relatively demanding conditions at sea. As a result, nuclear propulsion programs in the U.S., U.K., Russia and India operate using weapons-grade HEU so as to ensure sufficient energy output. The heat generated by the reactor’s nuclear fission in turn produces high-pressure steam that either directly or indirectly powers the vessel’s propulsion system.
The United States’ naval nuclear technology contains more than 90 percent enriched uranium. The U.K. uses both U.S. reactor technology and HEU in its vessels as well. By contrast, French nuclear-propelled submarines use low-enriched uranium (LEU), which poses a less direct threat to nuclear weapons proliferation given the additional hurdles necessary to enrich the material to sufficient quantities for a nuclear weapon. With these distinctions in mind, internal assessments of the Australian defense department in 2016 found that nuclear-propelled submarines were the preferred method by which to satisfy the country’s strategic needs.
Legal Authorities for Nuclear Technology Sharing
Before delving into the legal authorities specifically related to the sharing of nuclear technology with a foreign partner, it may be helpful to note that the close military ties at the heart of AUKUS predate both the Biden administration and recent tensions between the U.S. and China. In fact, AUKUS builds on defense trade cooperation treaties (DCTCs) dating back to 2007. These Bush-era agreements with both the U.K. and Australia were intended to improve the efficiency of eligible two-way transfers between the countries by preapproving the import and export of controlled military supplies. While nuclear propulsion technologies were exempted under DTCT agreements, the treaties envisioned a similar convergence of military and geostrategic needs that continue to be relevant under AUKUS today.
At this stage, neither the text of the AUKUS security pact nor its particular mechanics have yet been worked out. Still, the Atomic Energy Act of 1954, as amended (AEA), which regulates the export of nuclear expertise, materials and technology from the U.S., will shape Washington’s commitments under the agreement. (Lawfare previously explored international nuclear cooperation under the AEA.) In addition, Australia may have to update its existing IAEA safeguards to ensure that its actions are seen as consistent with the NPT.
The applicable provisions of AEA include 42 U.S.C. §§ 2153, 2121(c) and 2164. Together these three sections permit the U.S. government to share restricted nuclear technology and expertise with a foreign country so long as that country maintains IAEA safeguards and ensures the physical security of materials, and the president determines that such cooperation promotes and does not pose an unreasonable risk to U.S. national security interests.
Section 2153 is meant to operate as a general framework for the provision of civilian nuclear technology to foreign partners. In this case, § 2121(c) and § 2164 operate as exceptions to § 2153 requirements that cooperating foreign countries ensure that nuclear technology, materials or expertise provided by the U.S. be committed only to nonmilitary purposes. Section 2121(c) permits the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to sell, lease or loan nuclear materials to other nations for military applications in limited circumstances authorized by the president. Section 2164 authorizes the president to allow the commission as well as the departments of Energy and Defense to share restricted nuclear information—to include military reactor designs—with a foreign country so long as the president determines that such cooperation promotes U.S. security and does not pose an unreasonable risk to the common defense.
It may be too early to tell which provisions will be most relevant until the specific details of AUKUS are worked out during the 18-month coordination period. Unknown factors at this stage include how the U.S. and U.K. plan to delineate responsibility for the supply of nuclear materials to Australia; the mechanisms for the transfer, storage, and training associated with said materials; as well as the accompanying IAEA safeguards that will be required to ensure the safety and security of the materials. For example, will Australia enrich its own uranium using U.S. reactor technology, or will it simply be responsible for storing and securing any reactor technology and accompanying HEU that it receives from its partners?
As the aforementioned sections suggest, the AEA contemplates that any U.S. nuclear cooperation with a foreign country should be under appropriate nuclear safeguards by the IAEA and that steps are taken to mitigate against threats to the nuclear non-proliferation regime. For his part, President Biden was explicit in his remarks that AUKUS would not provide Australia with nuclear weapons capabilities but, rather, with nuclear-powered submarines armed only with conventional weapons.
Australia and IAEA Safeguards
Australia is not a stranger to the IAEA. It has served as the chair of the IAEA Board of Governors on four occasions. The country holds one-third of the earth’s uranium resources and is the world’s third largest uranium exporter. The U.S. is the largest market for Australian uranium, accounting for over half of Australia’s exports.
Australia first signed a comprehensive safeguards agreement with the IAEA in 1974 and subsequently joined the additional protocols in 1998. The safeguards agreement and additional protocols together provide the IAEA with both the authorities necessary and the freedom of action to ensure its verification mandate. Specifically, the IAEA is able to request necessary information from the government and conduct monitoring and verification of Australia’s civilian nuclear program by conducting short-notice inspections and complementary access visits and by collecting environmental samples where necessary.
Of course, AUKUS and the introduction of military-grade nuclear reactors and HEU pose an inherently more complex non-proliferation risk that will present new challenges for both Australia and the IAEA. Australia will have to submit to new procedures to ensure its continued compliance with the NPT while the IAEA itself will have to wade into untested waters given that it may have limited ability to monitor nuclear-propulsion activities.
Under one provision of the IAEA Information Circular 153—which serves as the basis for all safeguards agreements currently in place with non-nuclear weapons states—a state may remove nuclear materials from under IAEA safeguards if doing so for nonproscribed military nuclear activities such as naval nuclear propulsion. In short, the paragraph entitled “Non-Application of Safeguards to Nuclear Material to be used in Non-peaceful Activities” exempts HEU for naval nuclear propulsion from IAEA safeguards.
This in turn has created a “loophole” whereby countries can remove weapons-grade uranium from the IAEA monitoring and verifications framework so long as they are doing so to power a military vessel. In turn, this creates a gap in coverage for the organization. While a state wishing to invoke that provision is required to make an arrangement with the IAEA to ensure that the nuclear material will be removed for only a temporary amount of time, this does not change the fact that there is no IAEA access during the interim period.
This problem has yet to emerge within the context of non-nuclear weapons states, but some observers have already highlighted the risks that this potential loophole can be exploited by countries like Iran, which may attempt to use its aspirational naval nuclear propulsion program to shield HEU production from IAEA monitors.
Anticipating such verification shortfalls, the Federation for American Scientists recommended in 2015 that a country like Australia should volunteer to implement IAEA safeguards for a naval nuclear propulsion program so as to set a productive precedent for IAEA monitoring of HEU used in naval propulsion programs. The AUKUS-IAEA consultations are likely to consider such issues, especially amid critiques from China and others that the pact violates the NPT and creates nuclear proliferation risks.
Reaction and Fallout From AUKUS
The AUKUS announcement has engendered mixed reactions from U.S. allies and unsettled the Biden administration’s efforts to present a united front against China. Notably, France—whose own $66 bn agreement with Australia to supply it with 12 conventional diesel-electric submarines by 2034 was displaced by AUKUS—recalled its ambassadors to both Washington and Canberra in protest. French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian called AUKUS “a stab in the back” and suggested that Australia had opted to forfeit its sovereignty to the U.S. For its part, Australia has pushed back and noted that France was aware of Australia’s dissatisfaction with the existing agreement to purchase the French submarines.
European Union leaders have supported France’s outrage and signaled their dissatisfaction with U.S. actions. European Commission President Ursala von der Leyen called U.S. treatment of France and European allies “unacceptable” and demanded better coordination from Washington. Others have called for a “pause and reset” of the “broken” transatlantic relationship.
While France and the European Union expressed outrage, some U.S. allies have had more measured reactions. Canada and New Zealand—which are both a part of the “Five Eyes” intelligence-sharing partnership with the U.S., U.K. and Australia—welcomed the agreement while distancing themselves from future participation in the pact. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau brushed aside questions of whether Canada was invited to join AUKUS by noting that Canada is “not currently in the market for nuclear submarines.” New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Adern welcomed the engagement in the Indo-Pacific but warned that her country would continue to bar nuclear-powered vessels—including Australia’s—from entering its waters.
India and Japan—both of which are members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue along with the U.S. and Australia—have each heralded the agreement and praised its utility in protecting Indo-Pacific stability. The four countries are due to meet in Washington, D.C., on Sept. 24 as a part of a summit to tackle shared priorities between them.
For their part, U.S. adversaries have condemned AUKUS. China, which many observers see as the main impetus for the agreement, denounced the pact as escalatory and warned that it will result in a regional arms race. North Korea echoed China and warned that Australia’s actions could trigger a nuclear arms race, while Iran’s former foreign minister, Javad Zarif, criticized the three countries’ alleged hypocrisy for penning an agreement that proliferated HEU.
The range of reactions to the announcement of AUKUS pose a near-term challenge to the Biden administration’s stated priorities of bolstering U.S. alliances and leveraging multilateral institutions to confront China, Russia, North Korea and Iran. Perhaps recognizing this, the administration is actively attempting to mend ties with France and to assuage broader European concerns about U.S. unilateralism. Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron agreed to meet next month in Europe during the G-20 summit in Rome.
Conclusion
While nuclear-powered submarines are at least a decade away for the Australian military, the AUKUS pact will probably pose both opportunities and challenges as participating countries calibrate their next steps. The agreement builds on existing U.S. commitments to Australia and has been received as a signal of Washington’s willingness to take more assertive actions in the Indo-Pacific. At the same time, AUKUS risks encouraging other non-nuclear weapons states to pursue nuclear propulsion capabilities, which can undermine the global nuclear non-proliferation regime by encouraging the enrichment of HEU.
Critics like China have already begun to warn of the risks that the agreement poses for the nuclear non-proliferation regime. Iran may see this sort of activity by a non-nuclear weapons state as justification for its own nuclear submarine ambitions and may exploit this loophole to keep HEU from IAEA monitors or to drive a hard bargain during potential renewed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action talks. Therefore, as AUKUS begins to take shape over the next 18 months, the mechanics of U.S. technology sharing and the accompanying IAEA safeguards regime will likely play an important role in assuaging international proliferation concerns associated with the agreement. (Source: glstrade.com/https://www.lawfareblog.com/)
23 Sep 21. British Armed Forces Minister visits Uzbekistan. UK Minister for the Armed Forces, James Heappey, met Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdulaziz Kamilov to discuss strengthening of UK-Uzbekistan military cooperation. During his first official visit to Uzbekistan on 21 and 22 September, the delegation led by James Heappey met the Minister of Foreign Affairs Abdulaziz Kamilov, President’s Special Representative on Afghanistan Ismatulla Irgashev, Minister of Defence Lieutenant General Bakhodir Kurbanov and Deputy Commander of the National Guard Mamirjon Ganiyev to discuss strengthening of military cooperation between the United Kingdom and the Republic of Uzbekistan on Defence and Security issues. They also exchanged views on the assessment of the security situation in Afghanistan and Uzbekistan’s support to UK’s Programme for Relocation Assistance for eligible Afghans.
As part of the visit, the UK Minister of the Armed Forces also was invited to a tour at the Academy of the Armed Forces of Uzbekistan. He finished the first day of the visit by laying wreath at the Ode to Fortitude Monument at the Victory Memorial Complex in Tashkent.
In the interview for national TV Channel “Uzbekistan 24”, when asked to describe the visit in three words, the Minister called the day of meetings ‘friendly, productive and hopeful’.
On the second day of the visit, James Heappey and the delegation took a trip to Termez to Uzbek-Afghan border:
The UK values our bilateral defence relationship with Uzbekistan. We have a shared interest in the security and stability of Central Asia.
We have both worked hard to sustain our military cooperation through the pandemic. We are pleased to broaden and deepen that cooperation by adopting expanded Military Cooperation Plans with both Ministry of Defence and National Guard of Uzbekistan. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
27 Sep 21. Israeli Industry Pushing Jerusalem To Drop MTCR Drone Export Restrictions.
“We cannot play according to these rules anymore, when everybody else just goes wild,” an Israeli industry source said.
Israeli defense firms, wary of seeing their unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) market share drip away to rival producers, are pushing Israeli government officials to drop its adherence to technical limits placed on military drones through the Missile Technology Control Regime, or MTCR.
Government officials have not made a decision yet, according to multiple industry and defense sources, but are feeling growing pressure from local industry over the issue. Should the government of Prime Minister Naftali Bennett agree to such a move, it would likely seek out political approval from Washington.
The MTCR is an agreement among 35 nations governing the export of missiles and UAVs. Under the terms of the MTCR, any “category-1” system capable of carrying 500-kilogram payloads for more than 300 kilometers faces major export hurdles — the home country may still decide to export it, but it requires an extraordinary case.
The MTCR was first signed in 1987, with a focus primarily on missile technology. While Israel is not a member of the MTCR, it has broadly followed the guidelines as a political favor to the US.
Proponents of changing the MTCR have argued for several years that the agreement was never designed with today’s modern drones in mind — systems that are designed for re-use and surveillance, not one-way trips that end in explosions.
That argument gained steam under the Trump administration, which in 2020 declared that UAVs flying at speeds below 800 kph will no longer be subject to the “presumption of denial.” The goal was to open up international sales for US systems like the MQ-9 Reaper and the RQ-4 Global Hawk.
Until now, Israel has continued to follow the stricter MTCR guidelines, and as a result have developed less-capable systems for export. The best example is the Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) Heron TP-XP, with a 450 kg payload, which is less than half of the payload of the Heron TP used by the Israeli Air Force.
However, Israeli firms have seen increased competition from cheap, homegrown systems coming out of China and Turkey, and industry worries it can’t complete on the global stage while dumbing down its own capabilities.
2020 saw Israeli defense exports reach $8.3bn, an increase of 13.7% compared to 2019. Of that 2020 total, 6% were drones, a healthy figure — but less than Israeli firms would like to see.
Industry sources claim that the Trump administration’s change in policy directly led to IAI and Elbit losing deals to American firms for UAVs (It is unclear if any American sales have been completed under the new US guidelines, which have remained in place under the Biden administration.) They also have a growing concern about Turkey’s Bayraktar TB2 system in particular, which has been tested in a number of military operations over the years and is seeing growing demand. The TB2, while able to carry significant ordinance, has a public range of less than 300 KM, meaning it is not subject to export restrictions.
As one industry source put it, “We cannot play according to these rules anymore, when everybody else just goes wild.”
Michael Horowitz, a drone expert and director of the Perry World House at the University of Pennsylvania, said that as a non-member of the MTCR, Israel could simply change the rules it follows if it so desires.
“It’s not surprising, as the drone export market evolves, that Israel, in response to substantial Chinese and Turkish exports over the last several years, would seek to claw back market share,” he said. “Many of Israel’s most prominent drones for export, like the Heron TP, are Category I drones under MTCR guidelines, and Israel may believe that countries might prefer those systems over what other countries offer, if they are available.” (Source: glstrade.com/Breaking Defense.com)
27 Sep 21. Taiwan says needs long-range weapons to deter China. Taiwan needs to have long-range, accurate weapons in order to properly deter a China that is rapidly developing its systems to attack the island, Defence Minister Chiu Kuo-cheng said on Monday. Taiwan this month proposed extra defence spending of almost $9bn over the next five years, including on new missiles, as it warned of an urgent need to upgrade weapons in the face of a “severe threat” from giant neighbour China, which claims Taiwan as its own territory. read more
Speaking in parliament, Chiu said Taiwan needed to be able to let China know they could defend themselves.
“The development of equipment must be long range, precise, and mobile, so that the enemy can sense that we are prepared as soon as they dispatch their troops,” he added, referring to Taiwan’s missile capability.
In a written report to parliament to accompany Chiu’s appearance, the ministry said both medium- and long-range missiles were being used in intercept drills at a key test facility on Taiwan’s southeastern coast.
Chiu declined to give details to reporters of how far Taiwan’s missiles could reach, something the government has always keep well under wraps.
Taiwan offered an unusually stark assessment of China’s abilities in its annual report on China’s military, saying they could “paralyse” Taiwan’s defences and are able to fully monitor its deployments. read more
Chiu said it was important that Taiwan’s people were aware of the danger facing them.
Asked what China would attack first in the event of a war, Chiu answered that it would be Taiwan’s command and communications abilities.
“On this the Chinese Communists’ abilities have rapidly increased. They can disrupt our command, control, communications and intelligence systems, for example with fixed radar stations certainly being attacked first,” he said.
“So we must be mobile, stealthy and able to change positions.”
President Tsai Ing-wen has made bolstering and modernising defences a priority, to make the island into a “porcupine” that is hard to attack.
Taiwan has complained for months of repeated Chinese military activity near it, particularly of air force jets entering Taiwan’s air defence zone.
China has been ramping up efforts to force the democratically governed island to accept Chinese sovereignty. Most Taiwanese have no shown no desire to be ruled by autocratic Beijing. (Source: Reuters)
27 Sep 21. China’s biggest air show to display self-sufficiency drive, military prowess. China’s drive for self-sufficiency in aerospace and its growing military prowess will be on display at the country’s largest air show this week, in an event set against the backdrop of the coronavirus pandemic and trade frictions with the West.
The normally biennial Airshow China in the southern city of Zhuhai, delayed by a year due to COVID-19, will be a mostly domestic affair because of tight quarantine rules.
“The fact that Airshow China is happening at all, when the global air show calendar has been pretty disrupted, allows China to show it has returned to post-COVID normalcy,” said Douglas Barrie, a senior fellow for military aerospace at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
Local aerospace and defence firms have ramped up their presence significantly. Major Western suppliers like Airbus (AIR.PA) and Boeing (BA.N) will send their China-based teams, and there will also be a virtual component for those unable to travel. read more
The country’s efforts to improve homegrown aerospace technology will be in the spotlight at a time of a growing strategic rivalry with the West.
“As China faces increasing threats from the West, it needs to improve its military-industrial, aviation and aerospace capabilities,” said Song Zhongping, a military commentator and former PLA instructor on missile technology.
Trade frictions with the West are also accelerating China’s desire to reduce its dependency on foreign-made commercial products.
Commercial Aircraft Corp of China’s (COMAC) C919 narrowbody plane, due to be certified this year, is made up mostly of Western parts but the mix is expected to change over time as Chinese technology advances, with the engines a key target for eventual domestic replacement.
ARMS RACE
More than 100 aircraft have registered for display in the air or on the ground as China shows off its military might and its space ambitions, including a next-generation crewed rocket and heavy-lift launch vehicle.
State media reported the J-16D electronic warfare version of the J-16 fighter jet will make its show debut.
The flying displays will feature some products China wants to export, including the AG600, the world’s largest amphibious aircraft, designed for fire-fighting and sea-rescue roles.
The Wing Loong II, an armed drone similar to the American MQ-9 Reaper, has already been sold to customers including the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan as China competes against Western rivals for more military exports.
A new series of drone products named Feihong, including an unmanned helicopter, loitering missiles and a new generation of stealth drones, will make their debut at the show.
“Beijing is intent on not just pushing locally made military aircraft and aerospace technologies, but also its ability to address almost any military requirement out there,” said Kelvin Wong, a Singapore-based defence technology analyst at Janes.
The show comes as analysts warn Asia may be sliding into an accelerating arms race as countries react to China’s military growth. read more
The United States and its Asian allies have expressed growing alarm at Beijing’s military buildup, pressure on Taiwan and deployments in the contested South China Sea.
Chinese-claimed Taiwan has complained for a year or more of repeated flights by China’s air force near the democratically governed island. The United States, Britain and Australia this month established a security partnership that will involve helping Australia acquire nuclear-powered submarines. (Source: Reuters)
23 Sep 21. Russian navy practises striking Black Sea targets as Ukraine, U.S. hold drills. Russia’s navy practised firing at targets in the Black Sea off the coast of annexed Crimea using its Bastion coastal missile defence system, Russia’s Defence Ministry said on Thursday as Ukraine held joint military drills with the United States.
The exercises in Ukraine involving U.S. and other NATO troops are set to run until Oct. 1. They follow huge war games staged by neighbouring Russia and Belarus earlier this month that alarmed the West. read more
Kyiv’s relations with Moscow plummeted in 2014 after Russia annexed the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine and backed pro-Russian separatists in Ukraine’s Donbass region. The seven-year conflict with separatists has killed more than 13,000 people.
Russia’s Black Sea Fleet practised detecting and destroying sea targets with its Bastion system, an advanced mobile anti-ship and surface-to-surface defence system, the Defence Ministry said in a statement.
Divisions were shown carrying out strikes with truck-mounted missiles in video footage released by the Defence Ministry. Crews fired from concealed positions and used drones to track a simulated enemy group of ships, it said.
Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu has said the Bastion system can hit sea targets at a distance of 350km (219 miles) and land targets at a distance of 450km (281 miles). (Source: Defense News Early Bird/Reuters)
27 Sep 21. Paramount-supplied military hardware displayed in Mozambique. Newly acquired military hardware has been displayed by Mozambique during the country’s armed forces day celebrations, including Marauder armoured personnel carriers and Mi-8/17, Mi-24 and Gazelle helicopters acquired from Paramount Group.
Four Marauders fitted with heavy machinegun turrets were seen taking part in the 25 September parade in Pemba, along with a single Mi-24 attack helicopter (FA-117), an armed Mi-8/17 (FA-093) transport helicopter and a Gazelle light helicopter. The latter was used to rappel a canine handler and dog onto the parade ground.
Marauders were first seen in Mozambique in late 2020 while the helicopters appear to have been delivered earlier this year. Zitamar News previously reported that Mozambican pilots trained in South Africa would operate four Gazelle helicopters, while two Russian-made helicopters — an Mi-17 and an Mi-24 — would be operated by Ukrainian crews.
Journalist Nuno Rogeiro late last year reported that Mozambique would be getting several upgraded Mi-17 and Mi-24 helicopters from Paramount, fitted with weapons, sensors and other equipment. While Mozambique has its own Mi-24 and Mi-17 helicopters, they are all understood to be grounded/unserviceable and the new acquisitions are refurbished second hand models.
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In February this year, two ex-UK Army Gazelles were seen at Nacala Airport in Mozambique in Mozambican military colours. They were supplied by Paramount, and it is understood another four were destined to be transferred from the UK to South Africa before making their way to Mozambique or perhaps the Paramount Academy or another African defence force.
Africa Intelligence in December last year reported that an agreement between Mozambique and Paramount covers at least 12 Marauder armoured vehicles and four Gazelle helicopters, with the Gazelles to be delivered by February 2021.
Fifteen Mozambican pilots are believed to have been trained at the Paramount Technical Training Academy based at Polokwane International Airport, Africa Intelligence reported. Burnham Global is also providing training in the operation of the armoured vehicles on the ground in Mozambique, according to the Daily Maverick.
On 23 February Paramount and Burnham Global announced a multim dollar contract with an African government to provide a range of military training and advisory services. This country is believed to be Mozambique.
The acquisition of the Marauder vehicles is a welcome addition to the Mozambican military’s armoured vehicle fleet, especially as nearly two dozen anti-tank landmines have been discovered in an insurgent camp in Mocimboa da Praia, and there are reports that Southern African Development Community (SADC) Mission in Mozambique (SAMIM) vehicles have hit landmines.
Mozambique celebrates its Armed Forces Day on 25 September each year and during the 2021 event, host President Filipe Nyusi was joined by Rwandan President Paul Kagame, who arrived in Mozambique for a two-day visit on 24 September. Around a thousand Rwandan troops have been supporting the government forces’ fight against an armed insurgency in Cabo Delgado, later joined by troops from SADC countries.
Rwandan troops arrived in July on a mission that was initially meant to last three months, but on Friday Kagame said it would be up to Mozambique to determine how long Rwandan troops should stay.
The insurgency, gaining in strength since 2017, has caused almost 800 000 people to be internally displaced and brought to a halt a $20 bn liquefied natural gas project led by TotalEnergies.
defenceWeb will on 16 November examine regional and international efforts to counter the violence in Mozambique, through a new virtual conference, with the theme ‘Developing a multi-theatre approach to restoring peace in Cabo Delgado’. (Source: https://www.defenceweb.co.za/)
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