NEWS IN BRIEF – ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Oct 21.

21 Oct 24. The U.S. military has rushed its advanced anti-missile system to Israel and it is now “in place”, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said. THAAD, or the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, is a critical part of the U.S. military’s layered air defense systems and adds to Israel’s already formidable anti-missile defenses. “The THAAD system is in place,” Austin said, speaking to reporters before his arrival in Ukraine on Monday. He declined to say whether it was operational, but added: “We have the ability to put it into operation very quickly and we’re on pace with our expectations.” President Joe Biden said the THAAD’s deployment, along with about 100 U.S. soldiers, was meant to help defend Israel, which is weighing an expected retaliation against Iran after Tehran fired more than 180 missiles at Israel on Oct 1. The United States has been urging Israel to calibrate its response to avoid triggering a broader war in the Middle East, officials say, with Biden publicly voicing his opposition to an Israeli attack on Iran’s nuclear sites and his concerns about a strike on its energy infrastructure.(Source: Reuters)

(Source: Reuters)

Oct 17.

KEY POINTS

• Israeli officials confirmed the death of Hamas’ leader, Yahya Sinwar, in a military operation in Rafah (Rafah governorate, Gaza) elevating concerns for hostage safety and ceasefire prospects.
• The US sent a letter to Israel threatening to reduce its military support if Israel does not improve access to humanitarian aid in Gaza within 30 days, underlining rising Israel-US diplomatic tensions.
• Gaza Strip: On 17 October, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that Hamas’s leader, Yahya Sinwar, was killed during a military operation in Rafah (Rafah governorate, Gaza). Sinwar’s death will likely elevate risks for hostages in Gaza and possibly increase internal divisions within Hamas (see FORECAST). Sinwar’s death is unlikely to cause the IDF to cease its operations in Gaza, but likely marks the completion of one of the IDF’s key objectives and a possible turning point for Israel towards a ceasefire. However, hostage recovery remains one of the key objectives for Israel in Gaza; this outstanding goal will likely continue to prevent a complete ceasefire.
• Gaza Strip: On 16 October, cross-border rockets from northern Gaza triggered sirens in the Gaza Strip Envelope, underscoring sustained but low rocket-fire risks in southern Israel driven by increased IDF activity in northern Gaza. The IDF confirmed it intercepted two rockets crossing from northern Gaza which triggered sirens in Sderot (Southern district). The launches come amid a spike in IDF operations in northern Gaza and underscore the sustained (but very limited) rocket capabilities of Gaza-based militants. Continued rocket fire amid Israel’s ongoing operations in Gaza will sustain low-security risks in southern and central Israel, particularly due to shrapnel from interceptions.
• West Bank: IDF operations focusing on militant strongholds, particularly in northern West Bank, have continued according to ongoing trends. In the coming days, there is a realistic possibility that the IDF will increase its military operations, particularly in Jenin and Hebron governorates, to prevent an uptick of attacks during the Sukkot and Shemini Atzert holidays (16 to 24 October). Nevertheless, bystander security and attack risks will remain elevated in the West Bank (including around East Jerusalem) during the coming week; this will be particularly acute near security force positions, religious sites and settler outposts.
• Israel: A shooting attack in central Israel highlights elevated ethno-religious tensions and attack risks during October. On 15 October, a sole perpetrator killed one police officer and injured four other individuals in a shooting attack on Highway 4 north of Yavne Interchange and close to Palmachim (Central district). The authorities identified the perpetrator as a West Bank resident, originally from Gaza, who entered Israel illegally. The attack underscores elevated ethno-religious tensions and attack risks across Israel, particularly during October; this is due to the 7 October anniversary of the Israel-Hamas war and a concentration of Jewish holidays. Security risks in Israeli population centres and traffic hubs will remain elevated in the coming weeks. A heightened Israeli security posture across Israel is likely during the coming weeks, slightly elevating traffic disruption, particularly on roads close to large cities.
• Israel-Lebanon: Over the past week, Lebanese Hizballah (LH) has slightly decreased the frequency of its cross-border attacks on Israel, but has increased their range. LH is targeting the Haifa district more frequently, particularly Haifa city; it has also slightly increased attacks into Israel’s Central district (though these remain sporadic). In the coming weeks, there is a realistic possibility that LH will continue to gradually increase the range and frequency of attacks deeper into Israel, including against the Central district, sustaining elevated security risks in northern and central Israel.
• US-Yemen: Strikes on Iran-backed Houthis’ underground infrastructure highlight increasing efforts to disrupt their military capabilities; however, risks to shipping in the Red Sea will likely remain elevated. On 16 October, US B-2 bombers conducted strikes against five underground weapons storage facilities near the Houthi stronghold of Saada (Saada governorate) and the capital Sanaa. In recent months, the Houthis have increased their efforts to harden their defences against US strikes by building new underground tunnels and weapon storage facilities. The recent US strikes underscore US efforts to disrupt the Houthis’ military build-up and disrupt their capabilities over the long term. However, in the short term, security risks for shipping in the Red Sea will remain elevated, with a realistic possibility of the Houthis slightly increasing their attacks in the coming weeks, particularly against military vessels. These will sustain elevated risks to global supply chains and business operations dependent on commodities passing through the Red Sea.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• The US has indicated that failure to improve humanitarian conditions will possibly restrict Israel’s access to US military aid, underscoring substantially elevated diplomatic tensions preceding the 2024 US presidential election. On 15 October, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin sent a letter to Israel’s Minister of Defence Yoav Gallant stating that Israel must facilitate increased aid deliveries into Gaza and improve humanitarian conditions within 30 days or there will be ‘implications’ for access to US military aid. Since the IDF escalated operations in northern Gaza in early October, the number of aid trucks entering Gaza has significantly decreased, falling from 54 convoys per day on average in September to 25 per day in October. Preceding the Israel-Hamas war, approximately 500 truckloads entered Gaza per day, highlighting restricted access to food and medical aid throughout the enclave. Numerous NGOs have stated the humanitarian crisis is most acute in northern Gaza, with the World Food Programme stating that no food aid entered this area between 1 and 14 October despite critical food insecurity conditions therein. Israel has claimed that aid shortages in Gaza are caused by Hamas militants hijacking aid convoys and preventing distribution; Israel has also stated that NGOs’ continued use of closed trucks substantially delays inspections at border crossings, causing bottlenecks. These statements highlight widespread disruption to aid delivery and distribution efforts in Gaza, particularly in areas of high-intensity IDF ground operations. Although Israel announced it had facilitated the delivery of 50 aid trucks via the Erez West crossing on 16 October, humanitarian conditions will highly likely remain critical in northern Gaza, driving substantial tensions with the US, particularly preceding the US presidential election on 5 November.
• Increasing risks of a cholera outbreak in Lebanon highlight increasing public health concerns amid substantial displacement and restricted access to public health services. On 16 October, the World Health Organization (WHO) warned of the ‘very high’ risk of a cholera outbreak following the detection of a case in Akkar governorate. The WHO cited low vaccination rates and restricted access to sanitation facilities as factors elevating the risks of such an outbreak, particularly among displaced populations. In the coming weeks, continued IDF ground operations and intense airstrikes will almost certainly continue to trigger substantial population displacement from southern Lebanon, increasing pressure on public health services in receiving communities (including in the capital Beirut). In the coming weeks, increased pressure on public services, particularly sanitation infrastructure and medical facilities, will drive risks of communicable disease outbreaks. Consequently, public health concerns will almost certainly remain elevated in the short term; staff will also face elevated risks of exposure, particularly those working with vulnerable populations.
• Israel’s finance ministry presented several potential budgetary measures to the Knesset, highlighting increasing financial pressure due to substantial defence spending. On 14 October, Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich presented the Arrangements Law to the Knesset. The law outlines how the finance ministry plans to disperse funds in 2025, effectively serving as a precursor to the forthcoming 2025 state budget. The bill outlines significant spending cuts and moderate tax increases to maintain the target deficit (4% of GDP) in 2025 amid significantly elevated military spending. The proposed measures include pay freezes for senior civil servants, the cancellation of several tax exemptions and the increase of mandatory health insurance and national insurance contributions. The bill also calls for negotiations with the central bank regarding the increasing of taxes on capital gains, real estate purchases and financial institutions’ profit. If adopted, the bill will likely undermine investor confidence in the Israeli economy while increasing regulatory framework concerns and policy risks for firms with operations in Israel, particularly financial firms and those benefiting from substantial tax exemptions. There is also a realistic possibility of the budget triggering further ratings downgrading from international credit agencies, moderately increasing socio-economic health concerns and risks of capital flight in the coming months.
• The UK has expanded sanctions on Israeli settlement organisations in the West Bank, highlighting increasing bilateral tensions and risks of further sanctions. On 15 October, the UK sanctioned four Israeli settler organisations based on their association with settlement expansion and violence targeting Palestinians, namely the Amana, Hashomer Yosh, Od Yosef Chai Yeshiva and Torat Lechima organisations. The Amana group is one of the largest development organisations servicing settlements in the West Bank. This development underscores increasing risks of exposure to sanctions for firms facilitating financial transfers to Israeli organisations in the West Bank as well as firms contracted to do construction work (including in settlements considered to be legal under Israeli law). The UK also sanctioned three settlement outposts, moderately increasing compliance concerns in the agricultural sector. Subsequently, on 16 October, UK Prime Minister Kier Starmer stated that he was ‘considering’ sanctioning Israeli ministers who have supported settlement expansion. Although we assess that these sanctions remain unlikely in the short term, the sustained increase in settler violence and expansion will increase the likelihood of more assertive sanction-based measures from the UK government. Tensions between the UK and Israel will likely remain elevated, though a broader degradation of military co-operation (particularly in the event of further direct Iranian attacks on Israel) remains unlikely.
• Continued, high-profile demonstrations in the US opposing the Israel-Hamas war underscore elevated reputational concerns for firms with links to Israel.  On 14 October, the police forces arrested over 200 pro-Palestinian demonstrators after they staged a sit-in outside the New York Stock Exchange in Manhattan (New York). Many of the protesters were reportedly affiliated with the advocacy organisation Jewish Voice for Peace and organised the demonstration to protest American defence contractors and weapons manufacturers allegedly profiting from the Israel-Hamas war. The demonstration highlights elevated risks of high-profile activism targeting entities with links to the Israeli government and defence industries (including tangential links). Similar demonstrations will remain highly likely in the coming weeks, particularly targeting businesses in the arms, defence and financial service industries.

14 Oct.

• US-Israel: Deployment of US troops to Israel will increase regional tensions, risk of conflict with Iran. On 13 October, the Department of Defense announced that the US will send an advanced anti-missile system to Israel, along with around 100 troops to operate the system. This marks the first deployment of US forces to Israel since before the Israel-Hamas war. The move aims to bolster Israel’s air defences following Iran’s attack on 1 October. We assess that an uptick in Iranian-sponsored attacks against Israel will likely prompt US forces to augment their presence in the region, albeit in a defensive manner. Despite the deployment, President Joe Biden will likely continue to urge Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in private to moderate his response to Iran, including by strongly opposing any strike on Iran’s nuclear sites. Ultimately, we assess that the presence of US troops in Israel will raise the risk of the US becoming entrenched in a possible Iran-Israel conflict, particularly if any US personnel are injured or killed. Domestically, pro-Palestine activists and Democratic officials will almost certainly increase public scrutiny of Biden over this decision.

Oct 14.

KEY POINTS

• Successful drone strikes by Lebanese Hizballah (LH) against central and northern Israel underscore the growing challenges facing Israel’s air defences and the elevated threat posed by LH drones across Israel.
• The US’ decision to deploy a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system and US personnel to Israel will likely elevate regional tensions; however, it will possibly delay an Israeli retaliatory attack against Iran until after the arrival of the battery.
• Gaza Strip: Nothing significant to report
• Israel-West Bank: On 12 October, the Israeli security forces shot and seriously injured an individual attempting to carry out an attack with a Molotov cocktail. The incident underscores the elevated risk of attacks by sole perpetrators in Jerusalem, including East Jerusalem and the Old City. Such attacks are likely to target the Israeli security forces, though the risk also extends to bystanders due to collateral damage and crossfire.
• Israel-Lebanon: A deadly LH drone strike inflicted mass injuries among Israel Defense Forces (IDF) infantry recruits, underscoring the challenges facing IDF air defences. On 13 October, an LH explosives-laden drone, likely a Shahed 107, killed four soldiers and injured at least 58 others in a strike on the IDF Golani brigade training base near Binyamina-Giv’at Ada (Haifa district). According to early reports, the IDF was tracking two drones. It intercepted one and lost sight of the other, which hit the dining room at the base during mealtime and without triggering warning sirens. Additionally, on 11 October, a drone from Lebanon triggered sirens in central Israel. It struck a retirement home in Herzliya (Tel Aviv district), causing material damage and short power cuts throughout the city. The two incidents underscore the growing risks and challenges that LH drones pose to security across northern Israel, particularly in the proximity of military assets (but also in population centres).
• Israel-Lebanon: LH has extended the range of its strikes following the IDF’s declaration of new closed military areas in preparation for the expansion of its ground operations. On 12 October, the IDF announced that Even Menachem, Shomera, Shtula and Zar’it (all population centres in Israel’s Northern district) are now closed military areas. The announcement likely reflects IDF preparations to expand operations in south-west Lebanon. In the days following the announcement, LH increased the range and frequency of its rocket barrages and drone incursions into Israel. On 14 October, LH rockets triggered warning sirens in Netanya (Central district, Israel). However, it is rare for rockets from Lebanon to target central Israel. The security risks in Central are therefore moderately elevated.
• Israel-Lebanon: An alleged Israeli airstrike in North governorate (Lebanon) underlines the risk of the conflict zone expanding north of Beirut. On 14 October, the Lebanese Red Cross reported that an IDF airstrike against a residential building in Aitou (North) killed 18 people. The reported strike underscores the growing risk of the IDF targeting locations north of Beirut and outside common LH strongholds, elevating security and bystander risks across the country.
• Israel-Lebanon: Increasing incidents involving injuries to UN peacekeeping forces in Lebanon due to IDF operations underscore the bystander security and collateral risks across southern Lebanon. In recent days, there have been increasing reports by UN forces of IDF attacks close to their positions in southern Lebanon. The IDF has claimed that it has directed its operations against LH operatives and infrastructure close to UN positions. These incidents are likely to continue in the coming days, as long as the UN retains its positions. It is likely that LH operatives will increase their operations in close proximity to UN positions in an effort to increase the risk of IDF misfire (and resultant harm to Israel’s reputation).
• Iran-Israel-US: The deployment of a THAAD system and US personnel to Israel underscores increasing regional tensions. On 13 October, a Pentagon spokesperson confirmed that US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin authorised the deployment of a THAAD battery to Israel. According to a US defence official, approximately 100 US troops will be deployed to operate the system. The decision underscores growing regional tensions. It likely represents efforts to prepare for further Iranian retaliation in response to an Israeli attack. The deployment of US personnel to accompany the system will further elevate the risk of Iranian proxies targeting US forces in the region (see FORECAST below).

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Despite the roll-out of polio vaccinations in central Gaza, the intensification of IDF operations in northern Gaza will possibly restrict NGO operations, exacerbating humanitarian concerns. On 10 October, the UN children’s agency UNICEF announced that Israel and Hamas had agreed to several localised pauses to facilitate a second round of polio vaccinations in Gaza. The campaign follows the detection of a case of polio in late August, which significantly increased concerns of an imminent outbreak given the restricted access to healthcare facilities amid ongoing IDF ground operations (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 2 September 2024). The World Health Organization (WHO) began rolling out the second phase of the campaign in central Gaza on 14 October; similar efforts are likely in southern and northern Gaza in the coming two weeks. Even so, the recent intensification of IDF operations in northern Gaza will possibly undermine the WHO’s capacity to operationalise the vaccination campaign in affected areas given risks of disruption to temperature-sensitive supply chains. On 12 October, the World Food Programme (WFP) announced that it had been unable to deliver aid to distribution points in northern governorates since 1 October due to intensified IDF ground operations. Over the coming weeks, continued disruption to aid distribution will likely further undermine food security and exacerbate broader humanitarian concerns, particularly those linked to communicable disease outbreaks.
• In Israel, a moderate increase in protest activity highlights the risk of broader demonstrations ahead of a second day of mourning marking the 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas. Despite continued restrictions on gathering sizes in numerous cities nationwide, there was a moderate uptick in anti-government protest activity in the past few days, particularly in Tel Aviv. On 12 October, protesters calling for the government to secure hostage releases gathered in Tel Aviv, moderately disrupting movement along Begin Street. The police arrested at least five participants for temporarily blocking (and lighting bonfires along) the Ayalon Highway, highlighting sustained risks of travel and supply chain disruption through major urban centres amid sustained anti-government sentiment. Additionally, on 13 October, the cabinet voted to observe a second day of national mourning for the 7 October 2023 attack by Hamas on 27-28 October. The date corresponds with the anniversary of the attack according to the Hebrew calendar and will take place three days after Shemini Atzeret (23-24 October), extending labour flexibility concerns through October. The day will likely act as a flashpoint for further anti-government demonstrations, particularly in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. While demonstrations are highly likely to remain broadly peaceful, those targeting key thoroughfares will elevate the risk of disruption to supply chains and operational continuity; attempts to block major roads will possibly trigger localised altercations with the police.
• Lebanon’s prime minister continues to call for a ceasefire in southern Lebanon; the UN Security Council (UNSC) is likely considering a resolution to this effect in the coming days. On 11 October, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister, Najib Mikati, called for Israel to accept a ceasefire in southern Lebanon, indicating that LH would be willing to accept an agreement in line with UNSC Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hizballah war and called for the establishment of a demilitarised zone south of the Litani River. However, given the Lebanese armed forces’ failure to enforce the resolution since 2006, Israel is highly likely to reject Mikati’s request, particularly as ground operations continue to progress along the Israel-Lebanon border. Mikati also stated that Lebanon will propose a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire at the next UNSC meeting. While the US will likely veto such a resolution in the short term, rising concerns linked to the threat posed to UN-deployed peacekeepers stemming from IDF operations will undermine the prospects for continued US diplomatic support. Yet despite increasing diplomatic and international legal pressure to agree to a ceasefire, we assess that a ceasefire between Israel and LH remains highly unlikely in the short term.
• French President Emmanuel Macron re-iterated calls for a halt to weapons exports to Israel to prevent regional conflict escalation, highlighting increasing bilateral tensions. At the Med9 conference on 11 October, Macron called for states to cease weapons exports to Israel amid the ongoing ground offensives in Gaza and Lebanon so as to facilitate productive ceasefire negotiations and prevent regional conflict spillover. Macron’s repeated calls for ceasefires and decreased arms exports will almost certainly exacerbate bilateral tensions, possibly undermining efforts to mediate negotiations in Lebanon in the coming months. Yet despite these statements, an imminent French ban on arms exports remains highly unlikely. Although Macron could order such a ban without legislative approval, such a policy would likely exacerbate tensions within the French parliament and undermine the government’s efforts to retain support in the chambers following the July legislative elections, which resulted in a hung parliament. Even in the event of a successful embargo, a decrease in French exports is highly unlikely to undermine the IDF’s capacity, given the currently minimal scale of said arms exports (USD 33 m in 2023). Even so, there is a realistic possibility of increasing regulatory scrutiny of aircraft and aircraft component exports disrupting supply chain continuity for firms engaged in the aerospace and drone development industries in the long term.
• The US has expanded sanctions on Iran’s oil sector, increasing compliance concerns, particularly for international shipping firms. On 11 October, the US Treasury announced the expansion of sanctions targeting Iran’s petroleum extraction and refinery industries. This follows Iran’s 1 October attack against Israel. The sanctions expansion will likely further enforce Iran’s isolation from international oil markets, though it is unlikely to impact current export levels to partners such as China and India significantly, moderating domestic socio-economic health concerns. The Treasury also announced the sanctioning of ten entities and 17 vessels for their involvement in Iranian oil smuggling networks, often referred to as ‘ghost shipping’. These entities facilitated the irregular sale of oil in global markets to avoid US sanctions, highlighting the sustained risks of vessel co-option and exposure to smuggling activity within the international shipping industry. In the coming months, the US will likely continue to expand sanctions targeting Iranian-linked oil and shipping entities, increasing compliance concerns and sanctions-exposure risks for firms engaged in oil transportation and secondary sales, particularly those with operations in the Persian Gulf.  (Source: Sibylline)

17 Oct 24. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on the Killing of Yahya Sinwar of Hamas. The killing today of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, by Israeli forces is a major achievement in counterterrorism. Sinwar’s death will not heal the wounds of the October 7th atrocities that he plotted, or the many deaths for which he is responsible, but I hope that it may bring some small measure of justice and solace to the families and the loved ones of the many victims of Sinwar’s premeditated cruelty.

Sinwar was the architect of the vile terrorist assault on Israel on October 7, 2023, in which 1,200 Israelis were murdered and 251 people were taken hostage. Hamas terrorists slaughtered civilians from more than 30 countries—including the United States. Sinwar and Hamas were responsible for the deaths of many Americans over the years, including the more than 40 Americans slain on October 7th and the murdered American hostages Itay Chen, Gad Haggai, Judy Weinstein Haggai, and Hersh Goldberg Polin.

The death of Sinwar affords us all a major opportunity for progress toward the brighter future that both Israelis and Palestinians and the entire region deserve—and that Sinwar deliberately blocked.

Our top and most urgent priority is to secure the release of each and every hostage, including our own American citizens. The hostages should not have to suffer for another hour in the clutches of Hamas and other terrorists. Those who are holding them should release them now.

Sinwar’s death also provides an extraordinary opportunity to achieve a lasting ceasefire, end this terrible war, allow Israelis to return safely to their homes in southern Israel, rush in far more humanitarian assistance to ease the misery in Gaza, and bring relief and hope to the Palestinians who have endured so much under Hamas’s oppressive rule.

The United States fully supports Israel’s right to defend itself against Hamas and other terrorist groups. At President Biden’s direction, our forces in the Middle East stand ready to defend Israel, deter aggression, and reduce the risk of all-out war in the region. We will continue to work tirelessly to bring the hostages home to their families, to promote diplomacy as the principal mechanism for ending the conflicts in both Gaza and Lebanon, and to secure a more hopeful, secure, and peaceful period in a region that has known such sorrow. (Source: U.S. DoD)

17 Oct 24. U.S. Strikes Underground Targets in Yemen. Late Wednesday evening, the Pentagon announced that the United States had deployed B-2 Spirit bombers to the Middle East to destroy targets in Yemen. The target sites, controlled by the Houthis, were buried deep underground, said the Pentagon press secretary during a briefing today.

“U.S. military forces, including U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers, conducted precision strikes against five hardened underground weapons storage locations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen,” Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said. “U.S. forces targeted several of the Houthis’ underground facilities housing various weapons components of the types the Houthis have used to target civilian and military vessels throughout the region.”

For more than a year now, the Houthis, backed by Iran, have conducted repeated attacks on U.S. and international vessels in the Red Sea, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and the Gulf of Aden.

The full impact of the bomber strike is not yet known, but U.S. Central Command is conducting an assessment. Ryder did say the mission was successful.

“We struck exactly what we intended,” he said, adding that the mission sent a message to the Houthis. “There will continue to be consequences for their illegal and reckless attacks which put innocent civilian lives and U.S. and partner force’s lives at risk.”

In a statement last night, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III said the U.S. will do what is needed to protect its forces in the Middle East.

“The United States will not hesitate to take action to defend American lives and assets; to deter attacks against civilians and our regional partners; and to protect freedom of navigation and increase the safety and security in these waterways for U.S., coalition and merchant vessels,” Austin said. “We will continue to make clear to the Houthis that there will be consequences for their illegal and reckless attacks.”

Hamas Leader Dead

Today, Israel announced that it had killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

“The killing today of Yahya Sinwar, the leader of the terrorist group Hamas, by Israeli forces is a major achievement in counterterrorism,” said Austin. “Sinwar’s death will not heal the wounds of the Oct. 7 atrocities that he plotted or the many deaths for which he is responsible, but I hope that it may bring some small measure of justice and solace to the families and the loved ones of the many victims of Sinwar’s premeditated cruelty.”

The removal of Sinwar is significant, despite the likelihood that Hamas will not go long without selecting another leader, Ryder said.

“I’m certain that’s something that the Israelis will continue to keep an eye on, as will we,” Ryder said. “I also don’t think you can discount the significance, again, from a counterterrorism standpoint, the role that Sinwar has played in leading this organization, also as the architect, so to speak, of the Oct. 7 Hamas attack against Israel. It’s significant that he’s been taken off the battlefield.”

With the elimination of Sinwar, there is now greater opportunity for a cease-fire in Gaza, Austin said.

“Sinwar’s death … provides an extraordinary opportunity to achieve a lasting ceasefire, end this terrible war, allow Israelis to return safely to their homes in southern Israel, rush in far more humanitarian assistance to ease the misery in Gaza and bring relief and hope to the Palestinians who have endured so much under Hamas’s oppressive rule,” he said.

During a call today with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, Austin discussed the killing of Sinwar. He also reaffirmed U.S. support for Israel’s right to defend itself and the U.S. having provided the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or THAAD system to Israel.

On Monday, an advanced team of U.S. military personnel, along with the initial components necessary to operate the THAAD, arrived in Israel. The THAAD is an anti–ballistic missile defense system.

Ryder said at the time that additional U.S. military personnel and THAAD battery components would continue to arrive in Israel over the course of this week.

“The battery will be fully operational capable in the near future,” he said, without specifying a date.

Also, on the call today with Gallant, Austin said the arrival of the THAAD is another indicator of the U.S. commitment to Israel.

“Secretary Austin … reiterated that the deployment of the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery represents the United States’ unwavering, enduring and ironclad commitment to Israel’s security,” Ryder said. (Source: U.S. DoD)

18 Oct 24. Hezbollah says it will escalate war with Israel after Hamas leader killed.

• Summary
• Yahya Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack, has been killed by Israeli forces
• Hezbollah announces “transition to a new and escalating phase in the confrontation with Israel”
• US President Joe Biden says Sinwar’s death offers path for “day after” in Gaza
• Iran says spirit of resistance will be strengthened by Sinwar’s death
• Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu warns that war in Gaza not over

Lebanon’s Hezbollah militant group said on Friday it was moving to a new and escalating phase in its war against Israel while Iran said “the spirit of resistance will be strengthened” after the killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.

Sinwar, a mastermind of the Oct. 7, 2023, attack that triggered the Gaza war, was killed during an operation by Israeli soldiers in the Palestinian enclave on Wednesday, a pivotal event in the year-long conflict.

Western leaders said his death offered an opportunity for the conflict to end, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war would go on until the hostages seized by Hamas militants were returned.

“Today we have settled the score. Today evil has been dealt a blow but our task has still not been completed,” Netanyahu said in a recorded video statement after the death was confirmed on Thursday.

“To the dear hostage families, I say: This is an important moment in the war. We will continue full force until all your loved ones, our loved ones, are home.”

Sinwar, who was named as Hamas’ overall leader following the assassination of political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran in July, was believed to have been hiding in the warren of tunnels Hamas has built under Gaza over the past two decades.

He was killed during a gun battle in southern Gaza on Wednesday by Israeli troops who were initially unaware that they had caught their country’s number one enemy, Israeli officials said.

Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar has been killed by Israeli troops, according to Israel on Thursday.

The military released drone video of what it said was Sinwar, sitting on an armchair and covered in dust inside a destroyed building.

Hamas has not made any comment itself, but sources within the group have said the indications they have seen suggest Sinwar was indeed killed by Israeli troops.

‘CHIEF OBSTACLE’

Despite Western hopes of a ceasefire, Sinwar’s death could dial up hostilities in the Middle East where the prospect of an even wider conflict has grown.

Israel launched a ground campaign in Lebanon this month month and is now planning a response to an Oct. 1 missile attack carried out by Iran, ally of Hamas and Lebanon’s Hezbollah.

But the demise of the man who planned the attack last year in which fighters killed 1,200 people in Israel and captured more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies, could also help push forward stalled efforts to end the war in which Israel has killed more than 42,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health authorities.

U.S. President Joe Biden, who spoke to Netanyahu by phone to congratulate him, said Sinwar’s death provided a chance for the conflict in Gaza to finally end and for Israeli hostages to be brought home.

The U.S. wants to kick-start talks on a proposal to achieve a ceasefire and secure the release of hostages, U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said, calling Sinwar the “chief obstacle” to ending the war.

“That obstacle has obviously been removed. Can’t predict that that means whoever replaces (Sinwar) will agree to a ceasefire, but it does remove what has been in recent months the chief obstacle to getting one,” he said. In recent weeks, Sinwar had refused to negotiate at all, Miller said.

Iran indicated no sign the killing would shift its support. “The spirit of resistance will be strengthened” following the death of Sinwar, its mission to the United Nations said.

Hezbollah was also defiant, announcing “the transition to a new and escalating phase in the confrontation with Israel”.

The Israeli military said on Friday it had also killed Muhammad Hassin Ramal, Hezbollah’s commander of the Tayibe area in southern Lebanon.

NO COMFORT, NO COMPROMISE

Families of Israeli hostages said that while the killing of Sinwar was a significant achievement, it would not be complete while hostages are still in Gaza.

Avi Marciano, the father of Noa Marciano, who was killed in captivity by Hamas, told Israeli broadcaster KAN that “the monster, the one who took her from me, who had the blood of all our daughters on his hands, finally met the gates of hell.”

“A little justice, but no comfort,” he said. “There will be comfort only when Naama, Liri, Agam, Daniela and Karina, our girls’ friends, return home.”

In Khan Younis in the south of the Gaza Strip, a displaced Palestinian named Thabet Amour told Reuters the Palestinian fight would continue.

“This is resistance that does not disappear when men disappear,” he said. “The assassination of Sinwar will not lead to the end of the resistance or to a compromise or surrender and raising the white flag.” (Source: Reuters)

17 Oct 24. Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the architect of the October 7 massacre in Israel, has been killed, according to the Israeli military.

• Sinwar’s body was spotted in the rubble of a building struck by an Israeli tank in Gaza, according to a radio station run by Israel’s military. The Israel Defense Forces confirmed Sinwar was “eliminated” after Israeli officials ran DNA tests and used dental records to confirm his identity.
• There are no signs that hostages were harmed in the mission that left Sinwar dead, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said earlier Thursday. Negotiations for a hostage release and Gaza ceasefire deal have been at a standstill for almost a month, according to Qatar’s prime minister, who said there was “silence from all parties.” (Source: CNN)

16 Oct 24. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III on U.S. Airstrikes in Houthi-Controlled Areas of Yemen. Today, U.S. military forces, including U.S. Air Force B-2 bombers, conducted precision strikes against five hardened underground weapons storage locations in Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen. U.S. forces targeted several of the Houthis’ underground facilities housing various weapons components of types that the Houthis have used to target civilian and military vessels throughout the region. This was a unique demonstration of the United States’ ability to target facilities that our adversaries seek to keep out of reach, no matter how deeply buried underground, hardened, or fortified. The employment of U.S. Air Force B-2 Spirit long-range stealth bombers demonstrate U.S. global strike capabilities to take action against these targets when necessary, anytime, anywhere.

For over a year, the Iran-backed Houthis, Specially Designated Global Terrorists, have recklessly and unlawfully attacked U.S. and international vessels transiting the Red Sea, the Bab Al-Mandeb Strait, and the Gulf of Aden. The Houthis’ illegal attacks continue to disrupt the free flow of international commerce, threaten environmental catastrophe, and put innocent civilian lives and U.S. and partner forces’ lives at risk. At the direction of President Biden, I authorized these targeted strikes to further degrade the Houthis’ capability to continue their destabilizing behavior and to protect and defend U.S. forces and personnel in one of the world’s most critical waterways.

Again, the United States will not hesitate to take action to defend American lives and assets; to deter attacks against civilians and our regional partners; and to protect freedom of navigation and increase the safety and security in these waterways for U.S., coalition, and merchant vessels. We will continue to make clear to the Houthis that there will be consequences for their illegal and reckless attacks. I am grateful for the professionalism and skill of the brave American troops who took part in today’s actions and who continue to stand guard in defense of our Nation. (Source: U.S. DoD)

15 Oct 24. U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense Battery Heading to Israel. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III reaffirmed the United States’ deep commitment to Israel’s security, demonstrated Oct. 13 by the announcement of the deployment of a U.S. Terminal High Altitude Area Defense battery to Israel in the coming days.

The secretary also reinforced the importance of Israel taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon and Lebanese forces, and the need to pivot from military operations in Lebanon to a diplomatic pathway to provide security for civilians on both sides of the border as soon as possible. Austin again raised concern for the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza and stressed that steps must be taken soon to address it, per the statement.

Army Secretary Christine E. Wormuth spoke at a news conference yesterday at the Association of the United States Army’s annual meeting and exposition in Washington.

About 100 soldiers will be included in the THAAD deployment to Israel, she said, noting that the air defense and artillery communities have some of the Army’s highest operations tempo.

Army Chief of Staff Gen. Randy A. George, who also spoke, agreed, saying it is the Army’s most deployed formation.

“We’ve seen them around the world. I’ve been very, very impressed. Everywhere I go, they’re super motivated,” George said.

Sgt. Maj. of the Army Michael R. Weimer also spoke, addressing the Army’s focus on health and readiness. (Source: U.S. DoD)

15 Oct 24. Israel’s demining near Golan signals wider front against Hezbollah, sources say.

• Summary
• Mine removal, engineering works accelerate in recent weeks
• Israel may be preparing to surround Hezbollah’s eastern flank, sources say
• Russian military units withdraw from observation post in southern Syria

In a sign Israel may expand its ground operations against Hezbollah while bolstering its own defences, its troops have cleared landmines and established new barriers on the frontier between the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights and a demilitarised strip bordering Syria, security sources and analysts said.

The move suggests Israel may seek to strike Hezbollah for the first time from further east along Lebanon’s border, at the same time creating a secure area from which it can freely reconnoitre the armed group and prevent infiltration, the sources said.

While demining activity has been reported, sources who spoke to Reuters – including a Syrian soldier stationed in south Syria, a Lebanese security official and a U.N. peacekeeping official – revealed additional unreported details that showed Israel was moving the fence separating the DMZ towards the Syrian side and digging more fortifications in the area.

Military action involving raids from the Israeli-occupied Golan and possibly from the demilitarised zone that separates it from Syrian territory could widen the conflict pitting Israel against Hezbollah and its ally Hamas that has already drawn in Iran and risks sucking in the U.S.

Israel has been trading fire with Tehran-backed Hezbollah since the group began launching missiles across Lebanon’s border in support of Hamas after its deadly attack on southern Israel triggered Israel’s military campaign on Gaza.

Now, in addition to Israeli aerial strikes that have caused Hezbollah significant damage in the past month, the group is under Israeli ground assault from the south and faces Israeli naval shelling from the Mediterranean to the west.

By extending its front in the east, Israel could tighten its squeeze on Hezbollah’s arms supply routes, some of which cut across Syria, Lebanon’s eastern neighbour and an ally of Iran.

Navvar Saban, a conflict analyst at the Istanbul-based Harmoon Center, said the operations in the Golan, a hilly, 1,200 square km (460 square mile) plateau that also overlooks Lebanon and borders Jordan, appeared to be an attempt to “prepare the groundwork” for a broader offensive in Lebanon.

“Everything happening in Syria is to serve Israel’s strategy in Lebanon – hitting supply routes, hitting warehouses, hitting people linked to the supply lines to Hezbollah,” he said.

Israel’s mine removal and engineering works have accelerated in recent weeks, according to a Syrian intelligence officer, a Syrian soldier positioned in southern Syria, and three senior Lebanese security sources who spoke to Reuters for this story.

11 Oct. 24. France’s Macron calls for an end to arms exports used in Gaza and Lebanon. French President Emmanuel Macron on Friday reiterated his call for an end to arms exports to the Gaza Strip and Lebanon, adding it was the sole means at hand to end the two conflicts pitting Israel against Iran-backed Hamas and Hezbollah.

“This is in no way a call to disarm Israel (…) but a call to stop any destabilisation in this part of the world”, said Macron at a press conference in Cyprus at the end of a meeting of Med9, which brings together the EU’s Mediterranean countries.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah erupted a year ago when the group began launching rockets at northern Israel in support of the Palestinian militant group Hamas at the start of the Gaza war, which followed a bloody rampage by Hamas through communities in southern Israel that killed 1,200 people in a matter of hours.

The conflict has intensified in recent weeks, with Israel bombing southern Lebanon, Beirut’s southern suburbs and the Bekaa Valley, killing many of Hezbollah’s top leaders, and sending ground troops into areas of southern Lebanon. Hezbollah for its part has fired rockets deeper into Israel.

“We have reiterated the need for a ceasefire, and this ceasefire is essential both in Gaza and in Lebanon. It is necessary now both for our hostages and the civilian population who are victims of the violence, and to avoid regional contamination”, he said.

“This is why France has called for an end to the export of weapons used in these theatres of war (…). We all know that this is the only way to put an end to it”, Macron added.

Last Saturday, the French president had already said shipments of arms used in the conflict in Gaza should be stopped as part of a broader effort to find a political solution, which prompted Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to say the next day that placing restrictions on Israel will just serve Iran and its proxies.

France is not a major weapons provider for Israel, shipping military equipment worth 30m euros ($33m) last year, according to the defence ministry’s annual arms exports report. (Source: Reuters)

14 Oct. 24. Israeli minister denounces UN peacekeepers as fighting rages.

• Summary
• Israeli general says Hezbollah tunnel close to UN position
• Borrell says EU nations took too long to condemn Israel’s attacks on

Israeli Energy Minister Eli Cohen on Monday accused the United Nations’ UNIFIL peacekeepers in south Lebanon of being a “useless” force that failed to protect Israelis from Hezbollah attacks and called on it to withdraw as fighting ramps up.

“The State of Israel will do everything to ensure the safety of its citizens, and if the UN cannot help, at least it should not interfere, and move its personnel from the combat zones,” he said on X.

Israel and the United Nations have been trading accusations over the peacekeepers in south Lebanon, as Israel pushes its forces through the area in an attempt to wipe out Iran-backed Hezbollah and its military infrastructure.

The U.N. said Israeli tanks had burst into its base on Sunday, the latest allegations of Israeli violations against peacekeeping forces, that have been condemned by Hezbollah and by Israel’s allies.

Israel disputed the U.N. account and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called for the peacekeepers to withdraw, saying they were providing “human shields” for Hezbollah during an upsurge in hostilities.

The UNIFIL peacekeeping force said two Israeli Merkava tanks destroyed the main gate of a base and forcibly entered before dawn on Sunday. After the tanks left, shells exploded 100 metres (yards) away, releasing smoke which blew across the base and sickened U.N. personnel, it said in a statement.

The Middle East, meanwhile, remains on high alert for Israel to retaliate against Iran for an Oct. 1 barrage of long-range missiles launched in response to Israel’s assaults on Lebanon.

The Pentagon said on Sunday it would send U.S. troops to Israel along with an advanced U.S. anti-missile system, as Israel weighs its expected retaliation against Iran.

Hezbollah denies it uses the proximity of peacekeepers for protection.

The Israeli military took foreign journalists into southern Lebanon on Sunday and showed them a Hezbollah tunnel shaft that was less than 200 metres away (650 feet) from a UNIFIL position, as well as weapon stashes that the troops found.

Brigadier General Yiftach Norkin said the tunnels were built a few years ago.

“We are actually standing in a military base of Hezbollah very close to the to the U.N.,” Norkin said, pointing to the shaft’s trap door in an area covered by undergrowth and overlooked by a U.N. observation post.

Since announcing its ground operation near the border, the Israeli military says that it has destroyed dozens of Hezbollah tunnel shafts, rocket launchers and command posts. “We found several days ago a huge quantity of weapons originally coming from Iran and Russia. Brand new,” said Colonel Olivier Rafowicz. “They were prepared for attacking us and (launching) a large invasion into the north of Israel,” Rafowicz said, showing the journalists crates of weapons.

Reuters could not immediately verify these claims.

EXTENSIVE TUNNEL NETWORK

Hezbollah possesses an extensive tunnel network in southern Lebanon, both the group and Israel say. Israel estimates they extend for hundreds of kilometres. A Hezbollah field commander told Reuters last week that the tunnels “are the foundation of the battle.” Hezbollah has not immediately commented.

UNIFIL has said previous Israeli attacks on a watchtower, cameras, communications equipment and lighting had limited its monitoring abilities. U.N. sources say they fear any violations of international law in the conflict will be impossible to monitor.

The European Union’s member states have taken too long to condemn Israel’s attacks on UNIFIL soldiers in Lebanon, the European Union’s foreign policy chief Josep Borrell said on Monday, describing the attacks as “completely unacceptable”.

EU countries, led by Italy, France and Spain, have thousands of troops in the 10,000-strong peacekeeping mission in southern Lebanon, which has said it has repeatedly come under attack from Israeli forces in recent days

U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in a call on Sunday with his Israeli counterpart, Yoav Gallant, “reinforced the importance of Israel taking all necessary measures to ensure the safety and security of UNIFIL forces and Lebanese Armed Forces,” according to a readout of the call.

UNIFIL had sent the Israeli military a letter in early October, seen by Reuters, that said that Israeli military positions had been taken up so close to U.N. positions that they had effectively become “one position.” UNIFIL said this posed a serious threat to peacekeepers.

The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah resumed a year ago when the militant group began firing rockets at Israeli positions in support of Hamas at the start of the Gaza war and has sharply escalated in recent weeks.

Israel says its operations in Lebanon are aimed at securing the return of tens of thousands of its residents displaced from their homes in northern Israel.

On Sunday, Hezbollah said it attacked a camp of the Israeli military’s Golani Brigade in Binyamina in northern Israel with a “swarm of drones”.

Israel’s military said four of its soldiers were killed and seven severely injured in the incident. On Monday, the Israeli military’s chief of staff Lieutenant General Herzi Halevi said that attack was difficult and the results painful. (Source: Reuters)

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