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Oct 13.
Oct 09.
• Israel-Syria: Airstrike against Damascus underscores spillover, regional escalation risks. On 8 October, an Israeli airstrike against a residential building in the Al-Mazzah neighbourhood of Damascus (Syria) killed seven civilians and injured 11 others. Syrian opposition media claimed that the targeted building was frequented by operatives from Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Lebanese Hizballah (LH). Given the scale of the strike, it is likely that the target was high-level, underscoring the currently compounded risks of regional escalation (which were already significantly elevated after the Iranian attack against Israel on 1 October). We assess that the strike also highlights the substantial bystander and security risks in Damascus and its suburbs, particularly near government facilities, military assets and neighbourhoods known to host IRGC members and Iranian proxies, such as Sayeda Zeinab.
Oct 07.
KEY POINTS
• The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) targeted Lebanese Hizballah (LH)’s possible new leader in Beirut; it also possibly killed the commander of Iran’s Quds Force.
• A shooting attack in Israel and cross-border rocket fire from Gaza underscore the elevated security risks during October.
• Iranian proxies in Iraq have continued to increase their attacks against Israel, successfully killing an IDF serviceperson for the first time; this underscores the growing security risks (and the increasing likelihood of Israeli retaliatory strikes against Syria and – possibly – Iraq).
• Gaza Strip: The IDF deployed reserve reinforcements to Gaza and refocused operations in the north of the strip, increasing the frequency of raids in this area. Additionally, on 6 October, the IDF consolidated its positions throughout Gaza, particularly in the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza. These actions were likely in preparation for the 7 October anniversary and the rest of the holiday season, and the likely increase in militant activity during this period.
• Gaza-Israel: The triggering of rocket sirens in central Israel reflects the elevated security risks during October, as per our previous assessment. On 7 October, Gaza-based militants launched five rockets from Khan Yunis (southern Gaza), triggering sirens in central Israel. Rocket shrapnel injured two individuals and caused material damage in Kfar Chabad (Central district), approximately 0.2 miles (300m) from Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV). Additionally, interceptor debris fell in an open area in Holon (Central), causing no damage. The launches highlight the elevated risks of cross-border rocket fire throughout October, particularly around 7 October and the high holidays (see Sibylline Alert – Israel – 30 September 2024).
• West Bank: An IDF airstrike in Tulkarm (Tulkarm governorate) killed at least 18 people, including Hamas’ branch commander. On 3 October, the IDF conducted an airstrike targeting a meeting between Hamas’ West Bank branch and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) in Tulkarm. The strike killed 18 individuals, 13 of whom were militants, including Hamas’ Tulkarm commander, Zahi Yaser Abd al-Razeq Oufi. The greater number of casualties in this strike compared to previous IDF airstrikes in the West Bank likely reflects a willingness to increase the intensity of strikes due to elevated tensions and preparedness during October and the one-year anniversary of Hamas’ attack, as well as the high holidays and the war in southern Lebanon. These will elevate bystander security risks, particularly in militant hotspots such as Hebron (Hebron governorate), Jenin (Jenin governorate), Nablus (Nablus governorate), Tubas (Tubas governorate) and Tulkarm.
• Israel: A shooting attack in Beersheba (Southern district) resulted in one death and at least nine injuries, reflecting the elevated radicalisation and attack risks. On 6 October, an Arab-Israeli individual from the Negev Bedouin community fired a small arms weapon at a McDonald’s branch at Beersheba Central Station. The assailant has a criminal record and a family connection to Muhanad al-Uqbi, who carried out a similar attack in Beersheba Central Station in October 2015. The incident reflects the elevated attack and bystander security risks throughout Israel in October and increased radicalisation risks among the Arab-Israeli population. Elevated security risks are likely to persist, particularly at key public transport hubs, near places of worship, along major highways and in large population centres.
• Israel-Iraq: A drone launched from Iraq killed two IDF soldiers and injured another 24; elsewhere, the IDF intercepted two drones from Iraq over central Israel. On 4 October, the IDF confirmed that it failed to intercept one of two drones launched from Iraq. The drones hit an IDF base in the northern Golan Heights early on 3 October. The pro-Iran Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) militia group claimed responsibility for the attack. In a separate incident on 7 October, the IDF confirmed it intercepted two drones, likely from Iraq, which triggered sirens in Palmachim and Rishon LeZion (both Central). The two incidents reflect the growing security risks emanating from the IRI and have increased the likelihood of Israeli retaliation. Attacks against the IRI in Syria are the most likely form of said retaliation, though strikes against IRI assets in Iraq remain possible, elevating security risks, particularly within the border areas of these countries.
• Israel-Lebanon: The IDF has reinforced its southern Lebanon operations with three reserve brigades; LH’s new leader and a top Iranian commander were possibly killed in continued strikes against Beirut (Lebanon). On 4 October, Israel confirmed that it targeted LH’s (likely) new leader, Hashem Safieddine, in a strike against Beirut on 2 October. Israel has yet to confirm Saieddine’s death. There is a possibility that the attack also killed Esmail Qaani, the commander of the Quds Force within Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), who was visiting Beirut at the time and has not been seen since the strike. During the past week, Israel has continued to conduct extensive strikes against southern Lebanon and Beirut; it is likely to continue targeting senior militant commanders in the latter.
• Israel-Lebanon: LH has continued to launch cross-border rocket attacks against Haifa and Northern districts, sustaining elevated security risks for civilians therein. In recent days, LH rocket barrages have successfully hit civilian population centres in northern Israel, including in Haifa, causing material damage and civilian injuries. Notably, on 5 October, LH rockets hit Deir al Assad and Karmiel (both Northern), lightly injuring 49 individuals. LH rockets will continue to present a high-security risk for northern Israel. However, LH is currently only conducting sporadic strikes on central Israel, presenting slightly elevated (but overall low) security risks therein.
• Yemen: The US conducted strikes against several Houthi military installations, including the airport at Al Hudaydah (Al Hudaydah governorate), according to Houthi media. On 4 October, the US, with the support of UK armed forces, hit 15 Houthi targets in Yemen, including in the capital Sanaa and at Hodeida International Airport (HOD) in Al Hudaydah. The strikes reflect elevated regional tensions and efforts to pre-empt increased Houthi attacks against commercial shipping in the Red Sea. However, this risk will continue to rise gradually in the coming weeks, particularly against the backdrop of (highly likely) Israeli retaliation against Iran.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
• Commemorative events have taken place throughout Israel to mark the one-year anniversary of the 7 October attacks, though broader security concerns continue to moderate protest activity. On 5 October, there was a moderate uptick in anti-government protest activity in Jerusalem (Jerusalem district) and Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district), with demonstrators calling for the government to secure hostage releases. However, demonstrations remained small in scale, particularly in Tel Aviv, due to Home Front Command restrictions on the size of public gatherings amid elevated risks of rocket attacks targeting the city. More broadly, from 5 to 7 October, municipalities throughout Israel organised commemorative events to mark the anniversary, moderately increasing localised travel disruption. Events are primarily scheduled to take place in the Gaza Envelope and major cities, including Caesarea (Haifa), Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Further small-scale events and hostage release protests will likely moderately disrupt travel and operational continuity in protest hotspots, though major operational disruption is unlikely.
• Concerns over the security of communications devices have reportedly significantly disrupted Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations, further undermining prospects for an agreement. On 6 October, Israeli media began reporting that Qatari officials stated that Hamas’ leader Yahya Sinwar is no longer communicating with mediators using electronic communications devices. Rather, he is reportedly sending sporadic (and written) instructions to negotiators. These reports likely reflect elevated concerns within Hamas following the co-ordinated detonation of over 3,000 LH-issued communications devices on 17 and 18 October, for which the Israeli security forces were likely responsible (see Sibylline Alert – Israel-Lebanon – 17 September 2024). The reports also come after US State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller revealed on 3 October that Hamas has not engaged in ceasefire negotiations for ‘several weeks’, underscoring the increasing barriers to constructive talks. In the coming weeks, negotiations are unlikely to progress meaningfully, undermining prospects for an agreement, particularly as developments in Lebanon continue to draw international attention away from the Israel-Hamas war.
• LH’s senior political official stated that the group now operates under council leadership, highlighting the increasing risks of factionalism. On 6 October, Mahmoud Qmati announced that LH would continue to operate under joint command until a successor to Hassan Nasrallah is selected. In the short term, an individual successor is unlikely to be named due to the IDF’s continued strikes against high-ranking LH members as part of its ongoing ‘organisational decapitation’ strategy. In the medium term, council-based leadership will likely exacerbate factionalism within LH’s military and political leadership, possibly favouring more hardline factions. As such, the prospects for a diplomatic de-escalation along the Israel-Lebanon border will likely continue decreasing in the coming months amid the possible strategic stasis and deadlock within LH’s leadership council.
• The UN announced that the majority of Lebanon’s displacement shelters are full, highlighting increasing threats to civilians as the Israel-Hizballah war continues to intensify. On 4 October, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) stated that the majority of government-established shelters in Lebanon have reached capacity due to significant displacement linked to the Israel-Hizballah war. Decreasing shelter availability highlights the increasing pressure on public and emergency services throughout Lebanon and will likely increase dependence on informal shelters such as schools, parking garages and warehouses. In the coming winter months, falling temperatures will likely further exacerbate public health and humanitarian concerns for displaced populations, particularly in Beirut. An uptick in opportunistic crime remains a realistic possibility amid increasing socio-economic health concerns, elevating the risk of tensions and clashes between displaced and receiving communities, particularly along ethno-religious lines.
• Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei led Friday prayers in Tehran (Iran) on 4 October, highlighting the increasing risks of regional escalation. During his sermon, Khamenei held a rifle, praised Iran’s network of armed proxies and stated that Iran would conduct further strikes on Israel ‘if needed’. These marked the first Friday prayers led by Khamenei since the death of IRGC Quds Force commander Qasem Soleimani in a US drone strike on 3 January 2020. The speech highlights the increasing efforts to demonstrate Iran’s solidarity with its armed proxies following numerous assassinations of high-ranking LH members in the past month. Also on 4 October, the IRGC’s deputy commander stated that Iran would retaliate against an Israeli strike by hitting energy and gas field infrastructure. Taken together, these statements highlight the diminishing prospects for diplomatic de-escalation in the event of direct Israeli retaliation for Iran’s missile attack on 1 October, driving regional instability risks.
• US President Joe Biden’s comments on a possible Israeli strike against Iranian oil infrastructure triggered a surge in oil prices, highlighting the substantially elevated market anxiety over a potential intensification in the situation involving Israel and Iran. On 3 October, Biden stated that Israel was ‘discussing’ potential strikes on Iranian oil infrastructure with US defence representatives. Oil prices subsequently rose by 5% by the close of business. The increasing price volatility highlights elevated market concerns that a strike on Iranian extraction, refinery and export facilities will substantially disrupt production and regional supply chains. Volatility also likely stems from concerns that Iran will restrict the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz in the event of a broader escalation, which would significantly restrict global access to oil and gas. In the coming days, concerns over how Israel will respond to Iran’s 1 October attack will sustain risks of oil price volatility. There is a realistic possibility that such volatility would increase energy, transport and operational costs worldwide in the short term, sustaining inflationary pressures on goods and services.
• French President Emmanuel Macron called for a diplomatic resolution to the Israel-Hamas war, elevating bilateral tensions with Israel over concerns of an arms embargo. On 5 October, Macron stated in an interview that a political solution to the ongoing Israel-Hamas war was his administration’s priority so that France ‘could stop delivering weapons’ for operations in Gaza. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu later characterised this statement as calling for an arms embargo, increasing bilateral tensions ahead of French Foreign Minister Jean-Noel Barrot’s visit to Israel to mark the 7 October anniversary. Despite increased tensions, we assess that a French ban on arms exports to Israel remains highly unlikely, as do broader shifts within bilateral economic and trade relations. Even so, elevated diplomatic tensions will likely persist, possibly impacting French- and US-led efforts to secure a ceasefire along the Israel-Lebanon border.
• Worldwide demonstrations to mark the one-year anniversary of the 7 October attack remained broadly peaceful. Thousands of demonstrators attended pro-Palestine protests in locations such as Athens (Greece), Berlin, Frankfurt, Hamburg, Munich (all Germany), Cape Town, Johannesburg (both South Africa), Caracas (Venezuela), Detroit, New York, Washington DC (all US), Jakarta (Indonesia), Karachi (Pakistan), Kuala Lumpur (Malaysia), London (UK), Manila (the Philippines), Melbourne, Sydney (both Australia), Paris (France), Rabat (Morocco), Rome (Italy) and Toronto (Canada). Although these demonstrations remained broadly peaceful, protesters in Manila and Rome clashed with security force personnel, who used tear gas and riot batons; one demonstrator in Washington DC attempted to self-immolate, highlighting the moderately elevated security and bystander risks associated with increased protest activity. Numerous demonstrations commemorating the victims of the 7 October attack also took place on 6 October, most notably in Berlin, London and New York. While the scale of pro-Palestine and pro-Israel demonstrations will likely decrease over the coming days, related activity will likely continue sporadically, sustaining localised travel disruption risks in protest hotspots. In the coming weeks, intensifying IDF operations in Lebanon and resumed operations in Gaza’s Jabaliya neighbourhood will likely continue to aggravate ethno-religious tensions linked to the Middle East crisis, sustaining risks of further large-scale protests. Nonetheless, widespread protest-related violence remains unlikely, moderating bystander risks. (Source: Sibylline)
11 Oct 24. Israeli strikes kill 22 in Beirut as Hezbollah official evades assassination.
• Summary
• “It was a horrifying scene, it was something unbelievable,” said Ala’a Baydoun, a Beirut resident whose house was damaged
• Lebanon says 22 killed and 117 injured in central Beirut attack
• Two UN peacekeepers injured in Israeli fire in Lebanon’s south
• Kamala Harris calls for ‘de-escalation’ in Gaza and Lebanon
Israeli strikes killed 22 people and injured more than 100 in central Beirut on Thursday, Lebanese authorities said, as a senior Hezbollah official evaded an Israeli assassination attempt in the city, according to three security sources.
In Lebanon’s south, two United Nations peacekeepers were injured when an Israeli tank fired at a watchtower at the force’s main headquarters in Naqoura, prompting the U.N. to say its personnel were facing increasing danger.
The conflict between Israel and Hezbollah erupted one year ago when the Iranian-backed group opened fire in support of Palestinian militant group Hamas at the start of the Gaza war.
It has intensified dramatically in recent weeks, with Israel bombing Beirut’s southern suburbs, the south and the Bekaa Valley, and killing many of Hezbollah’s top leaders.
Wafiq Safa, who heads Hezbollah’s liaison and coordination unit responsible for working with Lebanese security agencies, was targeted by Israel on Thursday night but survived, the security sources said.
The Israeli strikes hit a densely packed residential neighbourhood of apartment buildings and small shops in the heart of Beirut.
“I was praying. We heard the first strike and I thought it was in my house. The second one was much more powerful than the first one,” said Ala’a Baydoun, a resident whose house was damaged. “I went to see where the strike was and I saw that in my house, the glass and windows had shattered. We came and saw this scene. It was a horrifying scene, it was something unbelievable.”
Israel did not issue evacuation warnings ahead of the strikes and had not previously attacked the area, which is removed from Beirut’s southern suburbs where Hezbollah’s headquarters have been repeatedly bombed by Israel. (Source: Reuters)
09 Oct 24. Hezbollah targets Israeli troops on Lebanese border, sirens sound in northern Israel.
• Summary
• Gulf states must not allow use of airspace against Iran, Iranian official says
• Burn victims suffer from attacks
Hezbollah militants targeted Israeli soldiers near the Lebanese border village of Labbouneh with artillery shells and rockets on Wednesday, the group said, a day after Israel said it had killed two successors to its slain leader.
The Iran-backed movement, which has been launching rockets against Israel for a year in parallel with the Gaza war and is now fighting it in ground clashes, said it had pushed the troops back.
The escalation in Lebanon, after a year of war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza, has raised fears of a wider Middle East conflict that could suck in Iran and Israel’s superpower ally the United States.
The Israeli military said three of its soldiers were severely injured on Tuesday and Wednesday during combat in southern Lebanon. Sirens sounded in northern Israel on Wednesday morning after Israel renewed bombing of Beirut’s southern suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, overnight.
The conflict in Lebanon has escalated dramatically in recent weeks as Israel has carried out a string of assassinations of top Hezbollah leaders and launched ground operations into southern Lebanon that expanded further this week.
Hezbollah is the most formidably armed of Iran’s proxy forces across the Middle East and has been acting in support of Palestinian militants fighting Israel in Gaza.
Israel has said that troops from as many as four divisions have operated inside Lebanon since the first announcement of the ground operation on Oct. 1, but it has not confirmed that they have established a permanent presence there.
Mohammad Enayah says he’s lost nearly 100 friends and family members in the last year,
Hezbollah says it has clashed with Israeli troops on Lebanese soil, including with artillery fire and rockets, but that it has managed to push the troops back and prevent them from holding territory in Lebanon.
Israel’s bombardment of Lebanon has killed more than 2,100 people, most of them in the last two weeks, and forced 1.2 m people from their homes. Israel says it has no choice but to strike Hezbollah so that tens of thousands of Israelis can return to homes they fled under Hezbollah rocket fire.
Burn victims from Israeli strikes are being treated at the burn unit in Beirut’s Geitaoui hospital, the only one of its kind in the country. Reuters journalists saw nurses gently change the gauze on patients, some of whom were wrapped neck down because of the severity of burns.
Mahmoud Dhaiwi, a Lebanese soldier, told Reuters he was off duty and heading to the beach when his car was hit by an Israeli strike. His whole body has been burned. Since then he hasn’t been able to sleep and has suffered from crippling anxiety.
Overnight, Israel again bombed Beirut’s southern suburbs and said it had killed a figure responsible for budgeting and logistics for Hezbollah, Suhail Hussein Husseini.
The densely-populated and thriving suburban district, has been abandoned by many residents following Israeli evacuation warnings. Some Lebanese draw parallels between the warnings and those seen in Gaza over the last year, prompting fears that Beirut could face the same scale of destruction.
BIDEN-NETANYAHU CALL
U.S. President Joe Biden is expected to speak on Wednesday with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, according to a person familiar with the matter, with talks set to include discussion of any plans to strike Iran.
The Middle East has been on edge awaiting Israel’s response to a missile attack from Iran last week that Tehran carried out in retaliation for Israel’s military escalation in Lebanon. The only fatality from the Iranian attack was a Palestinian hit by debris that fell in the West Bank.
Israel’s retaliation will be a key subject of the call, with Washington hoping to weigh in on whether the response is appropriate, a separate person briefed on the discussions said.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment.
Biden has said he would think about alternatives to striking Iranian oil fields if he were in Israel’s shoes. That option could drive up global oil prices. Last week, he also said he would not support Israel striking Iranian nuclear sites.
Tehran has told Gulf Arab states it would be “unacceptable” if they allowed use of their airspace or military bases against Iran and warned that any such move would draw a response, a senior Iranian official said.
Netanyahu said on Tuesday Israeli airstrikes had killed two successors to Hezbollah’s slain leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, himself killed in an Israeli air attack on Beirut’s southern suburbs on Sept. 27.
Netanyahu did not name them, but Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said Hashem Safieddine, the man expected to succeed Nasrallah, had probably been “eliminated”. It was not clear who was the other figure cited by Netanyahu.
Safieddine has not been heard from since a huge Israeli airstrike late last week. Israeli military spokesman Daniel Hagari said Israel knew that Safieddine was in Hezbollah’s intelligence headquarters when fighter jets bombed it last week. Safieddine’s status was “being checked and when we know, we will inform the public”.
Hezbollah’s deputy leader Naim Qassem said on Tuesday the group’s capabilities were intact despite the “painful blows” inflicted by Israel’s mounting military pressure.
Qassem said the group endorsed efforts by Lebanon’s speaker of parliament to secure a ceasefire. He conspicuously left out an oft-repeated condition of the group – that a separate ceasefire would have to be reached in Gaza before Hezbollah would agree to a truce. Netanyahu’s office declined to comment on Qassem’s remarks.
U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller told a briefing in Washington that Hezbollah had “changed their tune and want a ceasefire” because the group is “on the back foot and is getting battered” on the battlefield. (Source: Reuters)
08 Oct 24. The Israeli military deployed thousands more troops in Lebanon and signalled an expanded ground offensive against Hizbollah, even as the militant group launched one of the largest rocket barrages into northern Israel since the conflict flared a year ago. The Israel Defense Forces said on Tuesday it had sent a fourth combat division into the south of Lebanon, in an indication it may now have more than 20,000 troops in the country, a significant rise on the initial force that invaded last week. The Israeli military refuses to provide official figures on its force numbers but the divisions are not expected to be at their maximum estimated size of 10,000 apiece. The increase in forces came as the IDF issued evacuation orders to more than two dozen villages in Lebanon’s south-west and gave “urgent warnings” in Arabic to beachgoers and boats along the Lebanese coast up to the Awali river, north of the city of Sidon. “For your safety, refrain from being in the sea or on the beach from now until further notice,” Avichay Adraee, the IDF Arabic spokesperson, wrote on social media platform X. (Source: FT.com)
07 Oct 24. Israel tallies a year of Gaza war: 40,000 targets bombed, 4,700 tunnels hit. In the past year in the Gaza Strip, Israel has bombed more than 40,000 targets, found 4,700 tunnel shafts and destroyed 1,000 rocket launcher sites, the military said on Monday’s one-year anniversary of the Hamas-led militant attacks that triggered Israel’s assault on the enclave.
Tallying troops whose names it received permission to publish, Israel’s military said 726 Israeli soldiers had been killed since Oct. 7, 2023. Of those, 380 died in the Oct. 7 attacks and 346 in Gaza combat starting Oct. 27, 2023.
Injured troops numbered 4,576 since that date. Fifty-six soldiers died as a result of operational accidents, which the military did not define.
In data to mark the Oct. 7 anniversary, the Israeli military said it enlisted 300,000 reservists since the start of the war – 82% men and 18% women and nearly half of them aged 20 to 29.
Since the start of the war, 13,200 rockets were fired into Israel from Gaza. Another 12,400 were fired from Lebanon, while 60 came from Syria, 180 from Yemen and 400 from Iran, the military said.
It said it killed more than 800 “terrorists” in Lebanon, where 4,900 targets have been struck from the air along with about 6,000 ground targets. Over the past year, Israel arrested more than 5,000 suspects in the West Bank and Jordan Valley.
The military said it killed eight Gaza militant brigade commanders, about 30 battalion commanders and 165 company commanders over the past year.
The war in Gaza was triggered when Palestinian Hamas militants attacked southern Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, killing 1,200 people and taking about 250 as hostages, according to Israeli tallies. More than 100 hostages remain held by Hamas. (Source: Reuters)
07 Oct 24. Statement by Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III Marking One Year Since Hamas’s October 7th Terrorist Assault on the State of Israel. A year ago today, on October 7, 2023, Hamas perpetrated the worst terrorist attack in Israel’s history. On the Jewish holy day of Simchat Torah, Hamas murdered some 1,200 civilians, including more than 40 American citizens, and took 251 more innocent people hostage, including 12 Americans. One year after the bloodiest day in Jewish history since the end of the Holocaust, we mourn with the people of Israel and with the families of those slain by Hamas—and we stand with the families still working with such courage to free their loved ones from Hamas captivity.
The Department of Defense’s primary duty is to keep American citizens safe. We bow our heads in memory of the Americans murdered by Hamas over the past year, including the slain hostages Itay Chen, Gad Haggai, Judy Weinstein Haggai, and Hersh Goldberg-Polin. Their memories will be a blessing—and spur us to action. We will not rest until every hostage has returned home.
The atrocities Hamas committed on October 7th are a stark reminder of the threat posed by Hamas and other terrorist organizations backed by Iran. At the direction of President Biden, the Department has surged security assistance to Israel since October 7th and has deployed additional military forces to the Middle East to support the defense of Israel; to deter further aggression from Iran and its partners and proxies; and to protect U.S. personnel across the region. On April 13 and again on October 1, U.S. forces coordinated with the Israel Defense Forces and other partners to defeat Iran’s brazen and outrageous ballistic-missile, cruise-missile, and UAV barrages against Israel. The Department has also supported other U.S. government agencies working to free the hostages and to surge humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians in Gaza.
Hamas is a ruthless terrorist group that uses civilians as shields. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed in Gaza. All states have a duty to respond to a terrorist outrage like October 7th—and all states have a duty to protect civilians during armed conflict. Over the past year, I have often discussed with Israel’s leaders how protecting Palestinian civilians in Gaza is both a moral responsibility and a strategic imperative. We mourn the death of every Palestinian civilian killed in the West Bank and Gaza during this awful conflict, and we grieve for the deaths of the American citizens Tawfiq Ajaq, Mohammad Khdour, and Aysenur Eygi.
It would compound this year of tragedy if all that awaited Israelis and Palestinians was more insecurity, bitterness, and despair ahead. Like every U.S. administration since the Six-Day War of 1967, we believe that Israelis and Palestinians must find a way to share the land that they both call home. That means working to find a path toward two states, living side by side in mutual security, as part of a broader, brighter future of Arab-Israeli normalization that includes Israel’s integration into the region.
The Department of Defense will not flinch in our commitment to Israel’s security, to combatting terrorism by Hamas and other fanatical groups, to deterring further aggression from Iran, and to working with our allies and partners to promote stability and peace in the Middle East.
My prayers today are with those murdered by Hamas on October 7th, with the survivors, and with all who are still working courageously to bring their loved ones home and end the suffering by reaching a ceasefire deal that will bring the hostages home and enable a surge of humanitarian aid. This is not just a day to mourn. It is a day to work. (Source: U.S. DoD)
07 Oct 24. South Korea-Philippines: Increasing defence co-operation highlights worsening security landscape. Earlier on 7 October, South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. met in the Philippines, in the capital Manila; the two figures elevated the countries’ bilateral relationship to a strategic partnership. They agreed to ratify a bilateral free trade agreement signed in 2023 which would boost trade and infrastructure investment. The two countries committed to a feasibility study to revive the Bataan Nuclear Power Plant (Central Luzon region, Philippines) and strengthen the Philippines’ energy security. They also agreed to enhance defence and maritime cooperation in the context of a deteriorating regional security landscape, including rising tensions in the South China Sea and on the Korean Peninsula. Their meeting coincided with North Korea initiating a constitutional revision to remove unification-related clauses. It will reportedly declare a new maritime border south of the current Northern Limit Line (NLL). We assess that these developments will likely exacerbate existing regional tensions. (Source: Sibylline)
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