NEWS IN BRIEF – ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Aug 17.

Aug 15.

KEY POINTS

• Israel-Lebanese Hizballah (LH) hostilities are likely to intensify temporarily in the coming days following strikes by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) that wounded Lebanese civilians, elevating the risk of snowballing escalation.
• The prospect of reaching a ceasefire deal in the current round of negotiations remains low, likely elevating anti-government sentiment in Israel and sustaining risks of Iranian and LH strikes in the coming weeks.
• Gaza Strip: Attacks carried out by Hamas in the IDF-designated humanitarian aid corridor in Rafah and claims by Hamas that the Israeli security forces are posing as aid organisations highlight the increasing risks facing NGO staff in Gaza. On 13 August, Hamas militants fired an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) at an unspecified target along the aid corridor in Rafah (southern Gaza). The attack prompted the IDF to issue a temporary halt to the transportation and co-ordination of humanitarian aid along the corridor. Additionally, news outlets recently published claims by Hamas officials that Israeli security personnel are posing as aid organisations in Gaza to collect intelligence. The claims follow local reports of increasing efforts by Gazan militants to identify Israeli informants within Gaza. These efforts allegedly involve the use of torture against suspects, and come amid a series of killings of senior militant leaders by the IDF. These reports, in conjunction with the 13 August ATGM launch, highlight the increasing security risks facing NGO staff working in Gaza. Among other factors, these elevated risks stem from possible misidentification by militants and/or the IDF, particularly among local employees.
• Gaza-Israel: Cross-border rocket launches targeting Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district) underline the limited but sustained threats facing central Israel. On 13 August, Hamas claimed it launched two rockets against Tel Aviv. The IDF confirmed the launches but stated that one rocket never crossed into Israeli territory while the other fell into Israeli territorial waters and therefore did not trigger any sirens. The launches highlight not only the sustained capacity of Gaza-based militants to target central Israel, but also the IDF’s limited ability to nullify all potential launch sites. However, the launches underscore that the IDF’s sustained operations and presence in Gaza have degraded militants’ ability to conduct a significant and effective cross-border attack into central Israel. Israeli air defences will further mitigate against the risk of such cross-border attacks. However, security risks stemming from falling shrapnel during interceptions will continue to face population centres in central Israel.
• West Bank: The launch of a large operation involving the IDF’s first drone strike against the northern Jordan Valley reflects the growing militant risks in this vicinity. Early on the morning of 14 August, the IDF launched a 12-hour-long operation comprising 400 troops against terror cells in the northern Jordan Valley, including in Far’a, Tammun and Tayasir (all Tubas governorate, West Bank). During the operation, the IDF conducted its first ever drone strike against the Jordan Valley. The operation follows a recent uptick of militant activity in the northern Jordan Valley, particularly in areas close to Jenin (Jenin governorate) and Tubas (Tubas). However, despite IDF operations, militant activity will likely continue to grow, increasing security threats in the area. This will sustain elevated security and bystander risks in the northern West Bank and Jordan Valley in the coming weeks. On 13 August, the Palestinian Authority (PA) security forces discovered (and conducted a controlled explosion of) an IED buried under a road in Jenin (Jenin). This activity reflects growing counter-terrorism activities by the PA. However, these are currently unlikely to improve the risk environment in the West Bank significantly. On 13 August, a car explosion injured two Palestinian militants in Halhul (Hebron governorate, southern West Bank). The incident was likely a premature IED or vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) detonation while the vehicle was in transit. Regardless, it reflects militants’ growing experience in the field of IEDs in the southern West Bank, particularly in the area around Hebron; this points to a likely increase in localised attacks in the coming months.
• Israel-Lebanon: An intensification of IDF strikes in southern Lebanon points to elevated bystander security risks in both Lebanon and Israel. On 14 August, Israeli strikes against a road intersection in Aabbassiyeh (Tyre governorate, Lebanon) wounded at least 17 individuals. Similarly, a strike later that day against a vehicle in Marjayoun (Nabatieh governorate, Lebanon) injured six individuals and killed two LH operatives. It is almost certain that not all the wounded individuals are militants, raising the likelihood of LH retaliatory action in the coming days and elevating the security risks in northern Israel. Furthermore, the higher-than-usual number of bystanders injured in these IDF strikes possibly reflects an escalation in their intensity and the IDF’s accepted threshold for such injuries. This will further elevate the security risks in southern Lebanon in the coming days, particularly along roads and near facilities used to store and manufacture weapons. This will consequently increase the risk of uncontrolled escalation leading to war.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Despite Hamas’ decision to abstain from renewed talks, ceasefire negotiations resumed in Qatar on 15 August; prospects for an agreement remain low. Numerous diplomatic sources claim that Iran has indicated it will not directly strike Israel if negotiators agree to a ceasefire in Gaza. Regardless of this claim, several sticking points in negotiations will increase the challenges in reaching such an arrangement. Hamas has stated it will not attend the current round of negotiations in Qatar, demanding that mediators should instead seek to implement previously proposed agreements (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 3 June 2024). Hamas claims that Israel has introduced new terms relating to the control of the Philadelphi corridor along the Gaza-Egypt border and the return of displaced civilians to northern Gaza; Israel denies these claims. Given the significant opposition to a ceasefire within the Israeli cabinet, as well as logistical barriers involved in communicating with Hamas’ newly elected political chief Yahia Sinwar and the adoption of relatively maximalist stances by both sides, a ceasefire remains unlikely in the short term. As such, Iran is highly likely to continue preparing to strike Israeli military positions in the coming weeks in a combined missile and drone attack.
• Following clashes in the Jerusalem area over Tisha B’Av (12-13 August), Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir travelled to the al-Aqsa Mosque compound, significantly escalating ethno-religious and regional tensions. Overnight on 12-13 August, dozens of clashes were recorded between Israeli and Arab civilians in Jerusalem’s Old City, resulting in seven arrests. In one incident, approximately 100 individuals associated with the Youth of Jewish Truth group harassed Arab civilians and employed pepper spray while engaging in acts of vandalism and rioting; this resulted in low-intensity clashes with the security forces. These clashes highlight the sustained security and bystander risks in the Jerusalem area, particularly during Jewish religious holidays and fast days. On 13 August, Ben Gvir and approximately 2,000 other Jewish Israelis travelled to the al-Aqsa Mosque compound; several attendees violated ordinances banning Jewish prayers at the site. The visit was condemned by numerous international parties, including Egypt, Jordan and the US, further increasing regional tensions. Numerous parties in the coalition government have also condemned Ben Gvir’s actions, highlighting the increasing intra-coalition tensions. However, given the lack of alternative coalition partners, we assess that government stability risks are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term.
• Continued rating cuts for the Israeli economy highlight increasing investor concerns amid elevated regional tensions. On 12 August, the Fitch credit rating agency decreased Israel’s credit score from ‘A+’ to ‘A’, citing rising regional tensions, as well as an increasing government deficit and the broader economic impact of the Israel-Hamas war. The rating cut comes after Moody’s and S&P Global issued similar downgrades in February and April, respectively. The rate cut will likely moderately increase borrowing costs and fiscal pressure on the Israeli government. Fitch kept the outlook for the Israeli economy as ‘negative’, sustaining the risk of further rating cuts in the coming months. Prolonged regional tensions and increasing security concerns will likely continue undermining investor confidence; as such, foreign direct investment will possibly decrease in the coming months. However, Israel’s (relative) economic, fiscal and regulatory stability will likely moderate risks of significant capital flight in the short term.
• The Israeli government approved the establishment of a new settlement in Bethlehem governorate, exacerbating ethno-religious tensions and the risk of sanctions on settlers in the West Bank. On 14 August, the Israeli government approved municipal boundaries for the new Nahal Heletz settlement (Bethlehem). This marks the first approval of boundaries for a new settlement (preceding its construction) since 2017. The newly zoned settlement will link four recently legalised outposts located between Gush Etzion (Bethlehem) and Jerusalem, further undermining territorial continuity in the West Bank (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 1 July 2024). The Israeli government’s continued support for settlement establishment and expansion will likely encourage settlers already residing in the West Bank to increase the construction of outposts, exacerbating ethno-religious tensions and elevating the risk of clashes with Palestinian civilians. The settlement expansion is also highly likely to drive bilateral tensions between Israel and its allies, such as the US and the EU, which have repeatedly condemned efforts to increase the number and size of West Bank settlements. In the coming weeks, the US and EU will likely expand sanctions targeting Israeli settlers and associated entities in the West Bank, increasing sanctions-exposure risks and compliance concerns for firms with operations in Israel, particularly those servicing settlements.
• The Israeli opposition successfully defeated a coalition-backed bill for the first time since 2022, highlighting moderately increased risks of policy stasis during the Knesset summer recess. On 14 August, opposition Members of the Knesset (MKs) voted down a government-backed bill that would have changed regulations for taxi meters. The vote marks the first defeat of a government-backed bill since the Likud-led coalition was formed in December 2022. Several coalition parties have stated that the bill was voted down due to a plenum non-attendance from Otzma Yehudit party MKs. Otzma Yehudit has frequently withheld votes from government-backed legislation in an effort to pressure Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to appoint National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir to the War Cabinet. Although the vote is unlikely to drive a significant increase in policy or regulatory risk in Israel, special plenum sessions will be particularly vulnerable to legislative deadlock during the Knesset’s summer recess (28 July-27 October), driving governance concerns throughout Q3.
• Anti-conscription protests continue to target IDF recruitment and training centres, elevating travel disruption risks. On 14 August, the Israeli police arrested 12 ultra-Orthodox, anti-conscription protesters demonstrating outside the Michve Alon training base (Northern district). Protesters blocked proximate roads, lit fires near the base’s gates and threw stones and other articles at the police attempting to disperse the gathering. The protest comes as the IDF continues to issue conscription notices to ultra-Orthodox men. Over the coming weeks, anti-conscription protests will almost certainly continue. In particular, they will target recruitment and training bases, elevating risks of localised travel and supply chain disruption. Protest-related violence and unrest remain highly likely, elevating bystander risks. However, widespread rioting remains unlikely.
• Azerbaijan-Israel: Cyber espionage operations point to raised phishing, security risks for diplomats. Earlier on 15 August, international media sites reported that a previously unknown threat actor (‘Actor240524’) targeted Azerbaijani and Israeli diplomats in an espionage operation in mid-2024. The campaign leveraged spearphishing emails with government-themed lures to target diplomats. When the malicious documents are opened, a custom-made loader is executed that subsequently installs new malware. The malware is capable of executing remote shell code, running commands and exfiltrating system information and other strategic data. Both pieces of malware use a variety of countermeasures to evade detection and establish persistence, highlighting the threat actor’s moderate sophistication. As Azerbaijan and Israel are established allies with close political and economic ties, we assess that this operation is likely being conducted for espionage purposes to obtain strategic information regarding this regional partnership. It is likely that further espionage operations will occur in the medium term as tensions in the region worsen between Israel, Iran and their proxies.
•  Israel: Settlement approval will drive exposure to sanctions, elevate compliance risks. On 14 August, the Israeli government announced municipal boundaries for the proposed new settlement of Nahal Heletz (Bethlehem governorate), marking the first pre-construction approval of a settlement since 2017. Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich claimed the move was mainly in response to countries that have recently formally recognised Palestinian statehood, which includes Ireland, Norway and Spain. As a result, tensions will likely rise between Israel and its allies, such as the US and the EU, who have recently condemned efforts to propagate West Bank settlements and have issued sanctions on far-right organisations involved in settler violence. Western countries will likely impose further sanctions on Israeli settlers and associated entities in the West Bank over the coming weeks, increasing compliance risks for businesses operating in Israel, particularly those servicing settlements in the West Bank. We assess that further settlement development will likely further ethno-religious tensions, elevating risks of clashes between Israeli and Palestinian civilians.

Aug 14.

• Israel: Al-Aqsa prayers will elevate risk of sanctions, increase government instability. On 13 August, far-right Minister of National Security Itamar Ben Gvir visited the al-Aqsa Mosque compound in Jerusalem with hundreds of supporters. During the visit, the minister allowed dozens of Jewish Israelis to pray in the compound in contravention of the ban on Jewish prayer at the site. Ben Gvir stated that Jews should be able to pray at the compound, drawing condemnation from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, as well as France and the US. Increased tensions will elevate the risk of further sanctions against far-right organisations and individuals, including (to a lesser degree) Israeli government members. We assess that sanctions against individual members of the Israeli government will likely strain diplomatic relations with Israel’s allies, increasing the risk of further international isolation amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Netanyahu’s criticism of Ben Gvir underscores the ongoing tensions within the coalition government, which will drive the risk of government instability, policy stasis and fractures in the ruling alliance.

Aug. 13.

*Azerbaijan-Iran: Azerbaijan’s close ties with Israel will remain key trigger for regional tensions. On 12 August, Azerbaijan’s Media Development Agency (MDA) denied claims that Israeli troops are stationed in Azerbaijan, condemning such claims as ‘information manipulations’. The MDA’s statements come after Israeli news outlets reported that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) called on its off-duty personnel to leave Azerbaijan and Georgia. Israeli media clarified that these soldiers are in these countries for personal reasons, such as tourism. Azerbaijan’s rejection of these claims comes amid heightened tensions in the Middle East, with Iran expected to retaliate against Israel for the suspected assassination of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh. Azerbaijan has historically maintained close ties with Israel, a key provider of defence equipment, which has been a longstanding source of tension with Iran. Over the past months, Azerbaijan has limited its public demonstration of support for Israel; bilateral ties with Iran have slightly improved. However, we assess that Azerbaijan’s close ties with Israel will remain a long-term source of regional tensions with Iran. For further analysis on Iranian threats to Azerbaijan,

*Israel: Downgraded credit score will likely impact FDI, elevating risks of capital flight. On 12 August, the credit agency Fitch announced it had lowered the Israeli government’s credit score from ‘A+’ to ‘A’, citing the economic impact of the Israel-Hamas war and growing regional tensions. Fitch also kept its outlook negative, underlining the possibility of further rating cuts. This comes after Moody’s and S&P Global issued similar downgrades in February and April respectively, underscoring decreasing investor confidence in the Israeli government. Diminished investor confidence will likely persist as concerns regarding regional escalation increase, reducing foreign direct investment (FDI) and increasing borrowing costs. We assess a realistic possibility that prolonged regional tensions and a deteriorating security environment will prompt multinational companies to relocate operations from Israel to other regional countries, elevating the risk of capital flight and undercutting economic growth and corporate tax revenue.

Aug 12.

KEY POINTS

• An assault by Israeli settlers against five Arab-Israelis in a West Bank settlement underlines the risks facing road users unfamiliar with hotspot areas in the West Bank amid elevated ethno-religious tensions.
• Tisha B’Av (12-13 August) and the anniversary of the Battle of the Yarmuk (15-20 August) are possible flashpoints for attacks in the West Bank and Israel, as well as Iranian and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) retaliatory action.
• Gaza Strip: The cancellation by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) of the designation of a humanitarian zone and subsequent evacuation order, alongside new operations in Khan Yunis, highlight the persistent severe security risks facing the strip. On 8 August, the IDF issued new evacuation orders to central and eastern Khan Yunis (southern Gaza). Later that same day, it launched new clearing operations in the area, which were led by Division 98 with battlegroups from Brigade 35, Brigade 7 and the Yahalom Unit (IDF combat engineering corps). On 11 August, the IDF issued evacuation orders to residents of the al-Jalaa neighbourhood in Khan Yunis, an area previously designated as a humanitarian safe zone. The IDF claims that Gazan militants have been launching rockets at an increasing rate at Israeli population centres from humanitarian areas. This highlights the risk of further short-notice changes to humanitarian zones in Gaza, sustaining severe security and bystander risks across the strip.
• West Bank: An assault against five Arab-Israelis in a settlement and a drive-by shooting highlight the elevated ethno-religious tensions and risk of attacks. On 9 August, four Arab-Israeli women and a three-year-old toddler (residents of the Arab-Bedouin town Rahat) mistakenly entered the Israeli settlement of Givat Ronen (Nablus governorate) with their car. Israeli settlers in the area assaulted the five individuals; they pelted the car with stones, set it alight and injured two passengers. The assailants fled when an IDF vehicle approached. The five Arab-Israelis later confirmed they were led into the area by a navigation app, underlining the challenges stemming from ethno-religious tensions facing road users selecting routes in the West Bank. On 11 August, a Palestinian gunman travelling in a moving vehicle opened fire on Israeli-plated vehicles on Route 90 near Mehola Junction (Tubas governorate) killing one Israeli civilian and injuring another. Later that day, Hamas took responsibility for the shooting. These incidents reflect how elevated ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank are driving risks of radicalisation and attacks. Furthermore, the incident in Givat Ronen will elevate the risk of radicalisation among Arab-Israeli and Bedouin populations in Israel, though attacks by these communities against Israeli civilians, particularly outside the West Bank, remain unlikely.
• Israel-Lebanon: Cross-border hostilities remain elevated, with LH slightly intensifying its retaliatory action against IDF strikes, though these are currently within the established conflict threshold. LH is demonstrating an increased willingness to retaliate against IDF strikes on its infrastructure and operatives; the group is using a larger number of rockets during barrages that it is carrying out in response to specific Israeli actions. Additionally, a failed Iron Dome interceptor hit a treatment and rehabilitation centre for the disabled in Mevo’ot HaHermon Regional Council (Northern district) on 10 August, causing significant damage but no casualties. The failed interception took place during an LH drone attack, highlighting the growing security and bystander risks during such attacks, which are increasingly challenging the effectiveness of Iron Dome interceptors.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

• Hamas will not participate in an upcoming round of ceasefire negotiations, further delaying an agreement with Israel. On 8 August, Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Qatar’s Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani and US President Joe Biden released a joint statement calling on Israel and Hamas to engage in renewed ceasefire talks scheduled to begin on 15 August. Although Israel subsequently stated it would send a delegation to the talks, Hamas announced on 11 August that it would not participate. Amid elevated regional tensions linked to a likely escalation on the Israel-Lebanon border and the risk of a direct Iranian attack in response to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh, Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations are unlikely to progress substantially in the coming days. Hamas likely intends to leverage concerns over regional escalation to secure further concessions from Israel, including the release of high-value prisoners (such as Ahmed Saadat and Marwan Barghouti), during the initial phases of any agreement. As such, we assess that a ceasefire and hostage release agreement remains highly unlikely in the short term, sustaining critical security risks in Gaza as IDF operations continue.
• In Israel, hostage release protests continued at pace, underscoring continued operational disruption risks. On 10 August, thousands of demonstrators gathered for weekly rallies, though protests remained broadly peaceful. In Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district), protesters primarily gathered on Begin Street and Kaplan Street, with small groups of demonstrators also targeting the Likud party headquarters on King George Street. Protesters temporarily blocked the Ayalon Highway. In Jerusalem, thousands gathered in the Rehavia area, particularly on Gaza Street and in Paris Square. Smaller-scale demonstrations also took place in Kfar Saba, Modiin, Netanya, Raanana (all Central district), Caesarea, Haifa (both Haifa district), Beersheba and Eilat (both Southern district). In northern Israel, demonstrators also blocked the Amiad junction on Highway 90 (Northern) and the Karkur junction on Highway 65 (Haifa), highlighting the risk of moderate supply chain disruption amid elevated anti-government sentiment. As ceasefire negotiations continue to stall and tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border remain substantially elevated, protest activity will almost certainly continue, driving moderate operational disruption risks in urban centres throughout Israel.
• Efforts to enforce conscription notices within the ultra-Orthodox community highlight the sustained risk of protests and unrest. On 11 August, Israel’s Attorney General directed the Ministry of Labour to stop issuing daycare subsidies for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students who do not respond to conscription notices. Ultra-Orthodox parties within the government coalition, including Shas and United Torah Judaism (UTJ), have condemned the move, stating that it will undermine labour flexibility within the ultra-Orthodox community, particularly for women with children. Continued civil efforts to promote draft adherence will almost certainly drive further anti-conscription protests over the coming weeks. Anti-conscription demonstrations are highly likely in ultra-Orthodox population centres such as Bnei Brak (Tel Aviv), Beit Shemesh and Jerusalem (both Jerusalem district), elevating operational and supply chain disruption risks in central Israel. Demonstrators are also highly likely to target key intersections along Highways 1 and 4, elevating the risk of temporary travel delays and supply chain disruption.
• The US concluded an investigation into an IDF battalion accused of human rights abuses and released additional military aid to Israel, highlighting the continued strength of bilateral military relations. On 8 August, US State Department spokesman Matthew Miller announced that the US would continue providing military aid to the IDF’s Netzah Yehuda Battalion following a review of its conduct. In April, the US considered restricting military aid to the battalion due to human rights concerns, particularly its alleged involvement in the death of a Palestinian-US civilian in the West Bank in 2022. On 9 August, the State Department also announced the release of USD 3.5bn in military aid to Israel. These statements highlight the continued strength of Israel-US economic and military relations, despite moderately elevated tensions.
• The International Criminal Court (ICC) will begin public hearings on whether it can issue arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the coming weeks, increasing protest risks and regional tensions. On 9 August, an ICC pre-trial panel announced that hearings on whether the court has jurisdiction to issue arrest warrants for Netanyahu and Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant (as well as Hamas’ leader in Gaza and the group’s newly-appointed political chief Yahia Sinwar) will be public. The decision follows the submission of several briefs from countries, academics and NGOs regarding whether the ICC can issue the warrants requested by Chief Prosecutor Karim Khan on 20 May. The ICC hearings are highly likely to drive protest activity in The Hague (the Netherlands), and there is a realistic possibility that emotive evidence and brief submissions will increase pro-Palestine protests in urban centres throughout the Middle East, North Africa and Turkey region. However, numerous brief submissions will likely delay the court’s ruling on the matter, moderating the risk of a substantial uptick in protest activity in the short term. (Source: Sibylline)

 

13 Aug 24. U.S. Seeks to Deter Regional War in Middle East.

There is still time for diplomacy to work in the Middle East, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said today during a news conference.

U.S. forces are moving into the U.S. Central Command’s area of responsibility as a deterrence measure, he said. The Air Force has moved F-22 Raptor aircraft into the region, and the U.S. Navy is moving the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group — centered around F-35C Lightning II aircraft — to the region, as well. The USS Georgia, a guided missile submarine, is also progressing there.

Today, there are approximately 40,000 U.S. service members in the Centcom region, Ryder said.

The Defense Department continues to closely monitor the situation in the Middle East. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III is in almost daily contact with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant and other partners in the region, Ryder said.

“The U.S. remains intensely focused on de-escalating tensions in the region, while also remaining focused on securing a cease-fire as part of a hostage deal to bring all of the hostages home and to end the war in Gaza,” the general said.

In his most recent phone call with Gallant, Austin assured the Israeli leader of the United States’ commitment to take every possible step to defend Israel. He also noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of escalating regional tensions, Ryder said.

“These U.S. military force-posture adjustments are designed to improve U.S. force protection, to increase our support for the defense of Israel, and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to a wide variety of contingencies,” Ryder said.

Austin and Gallant also discussed Israeli operations in Gaza, and the secretary once again emphasized the importance of mitigating civilian harm, the general said.

Iran and Iranian-backed groups have threatened to attack Israel, and Ryder said the United States must take these threats seriously. “But our focus is on de-escalating tensions, working on enabling that cease-fire, and getting the hostages returned.”

The United States wants to deter a wider, regional war in the Middle East, the general said. “No one wants to see escalation,” he said. “No one wants to see a wider, regional conflict. So, hopefully, we don’t find ourselves in a situation of having to employ those capabilities. But if we need to in the defense of Israel, we will.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

13 Aug 24. US approves sale to Israel of $20bn weapons package. The United States on Tuesday approved the sale of $20bn in fighter jets and other military equipment to Israel as it prosecutes a 10-month-old war in the Gaza Strip although the Pentagon said deliveries would not begin for years.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken approved the sale of F-15 jets and equipment worth nearly $19bn along with tank cartridges valued at $774m, explosive mortar cartridges valued at over $60m and army vehicles worth $583 m, the Pentagon said in a statement.

The Boeing Co (BA.N) F-15 fighter jets were expected to take years to produce, and deliveries were expected to begin in 2029. Other equipment would begin delivery in 2026, according to the Pentagon.

An expert on the process said some deliveries could be even earlier than 2026.

“The United States is committed to the security of Israel, and it is vital to U.S. national interests to assist Israel to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability,” the Pentagon said.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, in a post on X, thanked U.S. officials for helping Israel maintain “its qualitative military edge in the region” and the U.S. commitment to Israel’s security.

The U.S., Israel’s biggest ally and weapons supplier, has sent Israel more than 10,000 highly destructive 2,000-pound bombs and thousands of Hellfire missiles since the start of the Gaza war in October, U.S. officials told Reuters in June.

The war has devastated Gaza and resulted in a heavy civilian death toll. Hoping to avert a wider Middle East war, Washington has sought with other regional mediators to arrange a ceasefire.

President Joe Biden laid out a three-phase Gaza ceasefire proposal on May 31. But efforts have so far been unsuccessful in bringing it to fruition.

The latest bloodshed in the decades old Israeli-Palestinian conflict began when Palestinian Islamist group Hamas attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.

Israel’s subsequent assault on the Hamas-governed enclave has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians, according to the local health ministry. It has also displaced nearly the entire population of 2.3 m, caused a hunger crisis and led to genocide allegations at the World Court that Israel denies.

Washington has faced mounting domestic and international criticism for its military support for Israel. (Source: Reuters)

 

13 Aug 24. . Announcement comes as international leaders launch joint diplomatic push to calm tensions and urge ceasefire deal Washington and its allies have made a joint diplomatic push to reduce tensions in the Middle East © Jalaa Marey/AFP/Getty Images US warns Iran attack on Israel could come this week on x (opens in a new window) US warns Iran attack on Israel could come this week on facebook (opens in a new window) US warns Iran attack on Israel could come this week on linkedin (opens in a new window) Share Save current progress 7% Felicia Schwartz and Steff Chávez in Washington and James Shotter in JerusalemAN HOUR AGO Print this page The US on Monday warned that Iran or its proxies could launch an attack on Israel this week in retaliation for the assassinations of Hamas and Hizbollah leaders. The White House said it was preparing for “what could be a significant set of attacks” in its most specific public assessment of the timing of a potential assault from Tehran, echoing a similar assessment from Israeli officials. “We share the same concerns and expectations that our Israeli counterparts have with respect to potential timing here, [It] could be this week,” said US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby. He added: “It is difficult to ascertain at this particular time if there is an attack by Iran and or its proxies, what that could look like, but we have to be prepared.” Kirby’s comments came as the chief spokesperson for Israel’s military, Daniel Hagari, said Israeli forces were on “peak alert” for retaliation by Iran or its proxies, including the Lebanese militant group Hizbollah, and had increased air patrols over Lebanon to detect threats. However, Hagari said Israel was not currently changing its guidance for civilians. He added that if this changed, advice would be updated “as early as possible . . . but without giving our enemies an intelligence or operational advantage”. (Source: FT.com)

 

13 Aug 24. Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday condemned European leaders for urging Tehran not to attack Israel, asserting that the Islamic republic remained “resolute” in defending its security and would “not seek anyone’s permission to exercise its legitimate rights” to respond to being attacked. This followed a joint statement by the UK, France, and Germany on Monday calling on Iran and its proxy forces to refrain from attacking Israel. Tensions have escalated after Iran accused Israel of assassinating Ismail Haniyeh, political leader of Hamas, in Tehran two weeks ago. Nasser Kanaani, Iran’s foreign ministry’s spokesperson, criticised the European statement as an “excessive demand”, particularly since it failed to address “crimes” committed by Israel’s during its war in Gaza. He accused the Europeans of “brazenly” asking Iran to refrain from “punitive and deterrent actions against the regime that has violated its sovereignty and territorial integrity” with the killing of Haniyeh. It came a day after the US warned that Tehran or its proxies could launch an attack on Israel this week in retaliation for the assassinations of Haniyeh and the killing of Hizbollah leader Fuad Shukr in Beirut. The White House said it was preparing for “what could be a significant set of attacks” in its most specific public assessment of the timing of a potential assault from Tehran, echoing a similar assessment from Israeli officials. “We share the same concerns and expectations that our Israeli counterparts have with respect to potential timing here, [It] could be this week,” said US National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby. He added: “It is difficult to ascertain at this particular time if there is an attack by Iran and or its proxies, what that could look like, but we have to be prepared.” Kirby’s comments came as the chief spokesperson for Israel’s military, Daniel Hagari, said Israeli forces were on “peak alert” for retaliation by Iran or its allies, including Hizbollah, the Lebanese militant group, and had increased air patrols over Lebanon to detect threats. However, Hagari said Israel was not currently changing its guidance for civilians. (Source: FT.com)

 

13 Aug 24. US calls on Turkey and other allies to pressure Iran to de-escalate. The US has called on Turkey and its other allies to “prevail” on Iran to avoid a further escalation with Israel, Washington’s envoy to Ankara said.

“We ask all of our allies that have any relations with Iran to prevail on them to de-escalate and that includes Turkey,” US ambassador Jeff Flake said at a press briefing in Istanbul.

Flake added that his Turkish contacts appeared to be “more confident than we are that [the stand-off between Israel and Iran] won’t escalate”.

The envoy’s comments come after Washington warned on Monday that Iran or its proxies could launch a retaliatory strike on Israel this week over the assassinations of Hamas and Hizbollah leaders.  (Source: FT.com)

 

12 Aug 24. Austin Orders Additional Naval Assets to Middle East Amid Rising Tensions. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III has ordered additional naval assets to the Middle East to reinforce the United States’ commitment to Israel’s defense amid escalating regional tensions, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder told the media during a briefing today.

Austin dispatched the USS Abraham Lincoln Carrier Strike Group — which is equipped with stealth F-35C Lightning II combat jets — as well as the ballistic missile submarine USS Georgia to the Central Command region, Ryder said.

The order came following a phone call Sunday between Austin and Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant.

” reiterated the United States’ commitment to taking every possible step to defend Israel and noted the strengthening of U.S. military force posture and capabilities throughout the Middle East in light of hostile regional tensions,” Ryder said.

Ryder added that the additional naval assets will add to the capabilities being provided by the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group, which has already been operating in the region.

“These U.S. military posture adjustments are designed to improve U.S. force protection, to increase support for the defense of Israel and to ensure the United States is prepared to respond to various contingencies,” Ryder said.

When asked if the Defense Department had any specific information regarding an imminent attack in the region, Ryder said he wouldn’t speculate on such a topic.

“I think the point here,” Ryder responded, “is that we recognize the tensions in the region. We’re doing everything we can to deter aggression, deter conflict prevent this from becoming a wider war — while at the same time ensuring that we have the capabilities in the region to be able to protect our own forces also defend Israel, should it be attacked.”

During the Sunday phone call, Austin and Gallant also discussed Israel’s operations in Gaza, including the importance of mitigating harm to civilians, progressing toward a ceasefire, securing the release of hostages, and deterring aggression by other countries throughout the region, Ryder said.

Ryder also addressed an attack on U.S. and coalition service members by an uncrewed aerial system in Syria this past Friday.

“Military officials are still assessing the damage, though they credited swift and effective preemptive measures in limiting the drones,” Ryder said, adding that although nobody was seriously hurt in the attack, several U.S. and coalition personnel were treated for minor injuries, including smoke inhalation. (Source: U.S. DoD)

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Founded in 1987, Exensor Technology is a world leading supplier of Networked Unattended Ground Sensor (UGS) Systems providing tailored sensor solutions to customers all over the world. From our Headquarters in Lund Sweden, our centre of expertise in Network Communications at Communications Research Lab in Kalmar Sweden and our Production site outside of Basingstoke UK, we design, develop and produce latest state of the art rugged UGS solutions at the highest quality to meet the most stringent demands of our customers. Our systems are in operation and used in a wide number of Military as well as Home land Security applications worldwide. The modular nature of the system ensures any external sensor can be integrated, providing the user with a fully meshed “silent” network capable of self-healing. Exensor Technology will continue to lead the field in UGS technology, provide our customers with excellent customer service and a bespoke package able to meet every need.

A CNIM Group Company

 

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