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Military And Security Developments
May 09.
KEY POINTS
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a limited operation in Rafah; a wider operation is likely to be delayed due to US pressure and Israeli holidays in the coming weeks.
- The uptick in cross-border hostilities between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) is likely to continue in the coming week; the prospects of an IDF operation in Rafah will further elevate the risks of limited escalation.
- Gaza Strip: Overnight on 6-7 May, the IDF took control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing. On 6 May, the IDF began a limited operation in the Rafah area, likely aimed at pressuring Hamas to make concessions and to agree to a ceasefire deal (see Sibylline Alert – 6 May 2024). The IDF has taken control of the Rafah border crossing facility from within Gaza, likely in preparation for future wider operations in southern Gaza. The IDF will likely use this position to prevent the escape of Hamas operatives and to crack down on cross-border weapons smuggling. Since the operation began, approximately 80,000 civilians have evacuated the area. They have likely travelled to the expanded humanitarian zone in al-Mawasi. In addition to the limited operation in Rafah, the IDF launched a wider operation in Zeitoun (central Gaza) on 9 May. The operation, led by Division 99 of the IDF, will conduct additional clearing operations in central Gaza, likely in a bid to increase IDF control of the area and to secure it in preparation for the establishment of a long-term presence.
- Israel-Lebanon: Amid the IDF’s operations in Gaza, there has been a moderate uptick in cross-border clashes. Following IDF operations in Rafah, LH increased the frequency of its rocket attacks and drone incursions targeting northern Israel. In response, the IDF struck LH targets throughout southern Lebanon and in Baalbek-Hermel governorate (Lebanon). Additionally, the IDF conducted a drone strike against a vehicle in Tyre on 9 May, killing four LH operatives from the organisation’s Radwan Force. This moderate intensification of cross-border clashes highlights LH’s continued strategy of increasing military pressure on Israel in response to IDF operations in Gaza, sustaining security risks in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.
- Israel-Syria: The IDF struck targets in Syria following an attempted drone incursion into the Golan Heights on 8 May. The IDF intercepted the Iranian-manufactured drone above Daraa governorate (Syria). On 9 May, the IDF struck targets in Damascus (Damascus governorate, Syria) associated with the al-Nujaba armed movement, which forms part of the Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI). The incidents highlight continued Iranian efforts to strike Israel using proxies, sustaining security and bystander risks throughout Israel. Over the coming weeks, Israel will likely continue striking Iranian proxies as well as Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) members and installations, particularly in Lebanon and Syria.
- West Bank: The IDF has increased the scale of its counter-terrorism operations in the past week; it also began targeting a new militant group. On 8 May, the IDF conducted operations in Qalqilya (Qalqilya governorate) targeting a newly established militant group referred to as the ‘Qalqilya Battalion’. According to IDF sources, the operations were successful and resulted in the death of the group’s leader and the arrests of at least 30 operatives. The group’s formation highlights the increasing risks of radicalisation and proliferating militant activity in the West Bank, as well as elevated security and attack risks, particularly in northern governorates.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- Despite the imminent opening of a temporary pier in Gaza, aid deliveries into the strip remain highly susceptible to disruption, sustaining humanitarian concerns. On 7 May, the US military completed the construction of a temporary floating pier to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza through a maritime corridor. The US will position the pier off the Gaza shoreline in the coming days; deliveries from Cyprus will likely arrive in the coming week. Although the pier facility will substantially increase food and medical aid deliveries into Gaza, overland aid deliveries remain highly sensitive to disruption. From 5 to 8 May, the IDF closed the Kerem Shalom border crossing following a missile strike in the area on 5 May, which killed four IDF personnel. Additionally, the Rafah border crossing has been closed to all movement since the IDF took control of the facility on 7 May. These closures highlight the persistent risks of disruption to aid deliveries, exacerbating the risk of further food and energy insecurity throughout Gaza.
- IDF operations in Gaza have triggered a substantial uptick in protest activity throughout Israel, highlighting rising anti-government sentiment and elevated risks of clashes with the security forces. Since operations began on 6 May, numerous small-scale demonstrations have occurred in Jerusalem and Tel Aviv, temporarily restricting movement through key thoroughfares. On 8 May, protesters in Tel Aviv clashed with the police near Democracy Square (Kaplan Interchange) and attempted to block the Ayalon Highway, resulting in two arrests. Also on 8 May, protesters established an encampment outside Defence Minister Yoav Gallant’s private residence in Amikam (Haifa district), underscoring the increasing likelihood of protest activity targeting government buildings and ministers’ residences nationwide. While demonstrations are unlikely to threaten short-term government stability significantly, continued protest activity will sustain the likelihood of localised unrest, driving elevated bystander risks.
- Protests targeting aid convoys in Israel continue to escalate, increasing the risks of disruption to overland movement and supply chain continuity. Protesters associated with the Tzav 9 group continue to target aid convoys transiting Israel in an attempt to restrict deliveries to Gaza. On 6 May, protesters attacked an aid convoy travelling between Maale Adumim (West Bank) and Jerusalem, temporarily blocking Highway 1 and clashing with the security forces; this resulted in six arrests. Protesters looted aid supplies and lightly damaged the convoy, highlighting the elevated risks of violence targeting aid transport operations and staff, including drivers. Overnight on 8-9 May, approximately 500 Tzav 9 protesters also attempted to block aid convoys leaving the port of Eilat (Southern district). They later attempted to block Highway 40 near Mitzpe Ramon (Southern district). Demonstrators clashed with the police, underscoring the heightened risks facing bystanders, as well as travel and supply chain disruption linked to increasing anti-aid protest activity along major thoroughfares.
- Amid increasing anti-government sentiment, Israel’s largest labour union has called for a general election, elevating long-term labour flexibility and government stability risks. On 8 May, the leader of the Histadrut labour federation called for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to set a date for early general elections due to his ‘responsibility’ for the 7 October attack. There is a realistic possibility that the federation will call for strike action in the coming months if Netanyahu fails to call an election by the end of 2024. In March 2023, the Histadrut called for a general strike relating to judicial reforms and the attempted dismissal of Defence Minister Yoav Gallant, stalling operations at Ben Gurion International Airport (TLV) and the Ashdod port (Southern; see Sibylline Alert – 27 March 2023). Amid rising anti-government sentiment, this statement highlights the moderate threats to labour flexibility and government stability, particularly as the Israel-Hamas war continues.
- Restrictions on weapons transfers from the US highlight increasing bilateral tensions as the IDF moves into Rafah. On 8 May, US President Joe Biden threatened that the US would halt shipments of high payload weapons to Israel if it launched a major military operation into Rafah. This marks the first instance of the US delaying shipments to Israel since the Israel-Hamas war began. The restriction highlights increasing bilateral tensions relating to the potential further expansion of ground operations into Rafah. However, given the limited nature of the restrictions, bilateral security co-operation likely remains strong despite elevated tensions. As such, the move likely indicates the Biden administration’s efforts to express concerns over threats to civilians in Rafah as opposed to a significant policy shift.
- Large-scale pro-Palestine demonstrations at the Eurovision Song Contest highlight the risks of protest activity targeting high-profile events involving Israeli participants. On 9 May, hundreds of pro-Palestine demonstrators gathered in Malmo (Scania province, Sweden) to protest against Israel’s participation in the Eurovision Song Contest. The Swedish police have adopted a substantially elevated posture in the city; they expect thousands of demonstrators to join the protests over the coming hours (see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 3 May 2024). Protest activity will likely increase over the weekend if Israel progresses to the finals on 11 May, elevating the risk of clashes with counter-protesters and/or the police. The protest activity highlights elevated reputational concerns for firms hosting, sponsoring or which are associated with high-profile events involving Israeli participants. Such events will face elevated risks of targeted protest and activism campaigns over the coming months, elevating the risks of operational disruption.
FORECAST
Israel will likely delay an expansion of operations in Rafah until after Memorial Day (12-13 May) and Independence Day (13-14 May). While there is a realistic possibility of Israel capitalising on the patriotic sentiment associated with these days to launch an expanded operation in Rafah, the regional observation of Nakba Day (15 May) will likely escalate tensions and delay a substantial expansion in the coming days. Additionally, the resumption of unofficial ceasefire negotiations amid considerable US opposition to major operations in Rafah will likely further delay a substantial expansion. There is also a realistic possibility that Israel will commit to not using US-supplied weapons during IDF operations in Rafah. As Palestinian civilians will likely continue following evacuation orders over the coming days, Israel will likely attempt to garner US support for an operation as the population density in target areas decreases, though this is unlikely to resolve elevated bilateral tensions in the short term.
Unless Israel and Hamas reach a ceasefire agreement over the coming days, a large-scale operation in Rafah remains a realistic possibility in the coming two weeks. Such an operation would likely involve the IDF subdividing Rafah into smaller territories, issuing targeted evacuation orders and subsequently conducting limited operations in designated locations. However, while unlikely, broad, high-intensity operations in Rafah remain possible, particularly in the event of a total collapse of ceasefire negotiations. Regardless of ceasefire negotiations, however, the IDF will likely continue conducting limited operations in Rafah over the coming week, particularly near the Rafah border crossing, employing limited targeted airstrikes and raids throughout southern Gaza.
Hostilities between Israel and LH are likely to increase in the coming days ahead of Nakba Day (15 May) and the prospects of an expanded Rafah operation. LH’s strategy remains focused on pressuring Israel and splitting its military attention between several fronts. Israel’s Memorial, Independence and Nakba days represent an opportunity to increase cross-border attacks against northern Israel so as to increase military pressure on the IDF and psychological pressure on the Israeli population. Additionality, the prospects of the IDF expanding operations in Rafah will further elevate the risks of cross-border escalation in the coming weeks. While LH is likely to continue prioritising military targets, the likelihood of misidentification remains high, sustaining bystander security risks. Furthermore, while major escalation in the immediate term remains unlikely, miscalculation risks are elevated, sustaining the possibility of a snowball escalation.
Triggers and indicators for escalation
- A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas targets Israeli/Jewish entities outside Israel
- High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
- Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
- Israeli airstrikes against Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
- An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation by Lebanon-based militants
- US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
- Israel conducts further strikes against Hamas leadership in Lebanon
- The ongoing IDF ground operation expands into Rafah
*Israel: Influence operation highlights disinformation risks from Iranian state-sponsored actors. On 8 May, the cyber security company Recorded Future released a report on a multi-pronged influence operation (IO), ‘Emerald Divide’, targeting Israeli citizens since 2021. The campaign was attributed to several Iranian state-sponsored actors, such as ‘Storm-1364’; it primarily aims to amplify ideological divisions and diminish trust in the Israeli government. The threat actors use a network of social media accounts and technologies like artificial intelligence (AI)-generated deepfakes to spread anti-government messages, stoke societal divisions and encourage physical action. The campaign also targets Israeli government entities to harvest personally identifiable information from officials. This campaign underscores the consistent use of social media and AI technologies by Iranian state-sponsored actors in influence operations to boost effectiveness and foster mistrust in foreign governments. As such, we assess that Iranian state actors are likely to continue targeting Israel-affiliated organisations and individuals to influence public perceptions of the Israeli government.
*US-Israel: Risk of unrest will be sustained despite president’s readiness to halt weapons shipments. On 8 May, President Joe Biden announced that he would halt shipments of high payload weapons to Israel if it launched a major military operation into Rafah (Gaza, Palestinian Territories). The statement is the clearest conditioning of aid that Biden has issued since the start of the Israel-Hamas war. In response, House Speaker Mike Johnson and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell issued a joint letter to Biden criticising the condition. Conversely, progressive Democrats in Congress support the decision. In the short term, the delay is unlikely to precipitate any major change in US-Israel relations given that the US will continue to export defensive weapons. The move will possibly stem further large-scale protests on university campuses as Biden attempts to appease activists. However, we assess that domestic unrest risks will be sustained in the coming days as an expansion of Israel’s military operation into Rafah remains possible. As such, bystander risks and operational disruption are likely to persist in areas adjacent to protests due to continued US support for Israel.
May 08.
*Israel-US: Halting US weapon shipments will unlikely impact operations in Rafah. On 7 May, an unnamed US official confirmed recent reports that the US paused shipments of heavy bombs to Israel to prevent their use during a wide-scale operation in Rafah. This is the first time since the onset of the Israel-Hamas war the US has held up weapons shipments earmarked for Israel. The decision indicates increasing tensions with the US. However, security co-operation between the two states is likely to remain strong, with the move designed to express concerns rather than a fully-fledged policy shift. Furthermore, the pause is unlikely to impact current Israeli operations in Rafah or Israel’s stance in the current ceasefire negotiations. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) will likely continue targeted airstrikes and limited raids/incursions throughout the area in the coming days to further exert military pressure on Hamas to accept Israel’s ceasefire terms. While Israel’s extensive use of heavy bombs in Rafah remains unlikely, such use would likely elevate the risks of further halts to US weapon shipments.
*Palestinian Territories-US: Gaza pier will likely operate in the coming days; security risks persist. On 7 May, the US military completed the construction of a temporary pier to facilitate humanitarian aid deliveries to Gaza through a maritime corridor. However, the pier sections remain in the port of Ashdod (Southern District) due to adverse weather. Once conditions improve, the US will position the pier off the Gaza shoreline and deliveries will likely commence over the coming days. The facility’s operationalisation will likely substantially increase food and medical aid deliveries into Gaza amidst critical humanitarian conditions. However, given the persistent risks of Gaza-based militant groups attacking the port facility, aid workers and security personnel engaged in port operations will face significant security and bystander risks in the coming weeks. Additionally, the absence of local governing bodies in Gaza, a persistent security vacuum and widespread looting will complicate aid distribution, driving food, water and energy insecurity throughout the enclave.
May 07.
*US-Canada: Escalation in Israel-Hamas war will likely increase risk of violence in short term. On 4 May, the New York Police Department (NYPD) reported that at least three synagogues and a museum in New York City (New York) received bomb threats, though none were deemed credible. A city official added that the bomb threats were part of a growing trend of hoax threats (‘swatting’) targeting Jewish institutions. On 6 May, the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) reported an uptick in ‘violent rhetoric’ from ‘extremist actors’ since the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war. CSIS warned that the ongoing hostilities will possibly prompt individuals to resort to violence. In the short term, the onset of an Israeli military operation into Rafah (Gaza, Palestinian Territories) will likely increase the risk of unrest across North America . Despite a heightened security force presence in the US and Canada, the increased risk of violence will remain in major urban centres, particularly New York City and Ottawa (Ontario province, Canada). We assess that extreme rhetoric and incitement to violence will sustain ethno-religious tensions in the medium-to-long term.
*Europe region: Intensification of pro-Palestine protests is possible in coming week. Earlier on 7 May, riot police ended a pro-Palestine protest at the University of Amsterdam (UvA, Netherlands), resulting in the arrests of 125 individuals. Students across the country have called for universities, including the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, to end their alleged partnerships with Israeli institutions. The protests follow an uptick in pro-Palestine demonstrations in universities across the US, which have also witnessed violent clashes (see Sibylline Alert – 3 May 2024). Tensions are set to remain elevated after the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) took control of the Palestinian side of the Rafah crossing. We assess that perceptions of a deteriorating humanitarian crisis in Gaza will fuel pro-Palestine protests across Europe in the coming week. While universities will likely remain targets of campus-style demonstrations, broader Palestine-linked unrest will possibly intensify across major urban centres. Dispersal measures during anti-war protests will heighten bystander risks.
*Israel-Palestinian Territories: Rafah ground operation will drive security, bystander risks significantly. On 6 May, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began expanding ground operations into Rafah (southern Gaza) after ceasefire and hostage release negotiations with Hamas stalled. Subsequently, Hamas accepted an Egyptian-Qatari ceasefire proposal, though Israeli officials stated that the proposal does not meet their conditions for acceptance. At the time of writing, the IDF has taken control of the Rafah border crossing, while the Kerem Shalom border crossing remains closed after a targeted rocket attack killed three IDF personnel on 5 May. We assess that the IDF is highly likely to continue expanding ground operations in southern Gaza in the coming days. Clashes and airstrikes in densely populated urban areas will almost certainly increase security and bystander risks, disrupting critical NGO operations. Although increasing military pressure will possibly compel Hamas to accept Israel’s ceasefire proposals, negotiations will remain highly fragile. In Israel, the operation will likely trigger an uptick in protest activity from groups calling for hostage releases, elevating the likelihood of unrest and low-intensity clashes with the security forces. (Source: Sibylline)
11 May 24. US says Israel’s use of weapons may have violated international law. The Biden administration on Friday said Israel’s use of U.S.-supplied weapons may have violated international humanitarian law during its military operation in Gaza, in its strongest criticism to date of Israel.
But the administration stopped short of a definitive assessment, saying that due to the chaos of the war in Gaza it could not verify specific instances where use of those weapons might have been involved in alleged breaches.
The assessment came in a 46-page unclassified State Department report to Congress required under a new National Security Memorandum (NSM) that President Joe Biden issued in early February.
The findings risk further souring ties with Israel at a time when the allies are increasingly at odds over Israel’s plans to strike Rafah, a move Washington has repeatedly warned against.
The Biden administration has already put a hold on one package of arms in a major policy shift and said the U.S. was reviewing others even as it reiterated long-term support for Israel.
The State Department’s report included contradictions: It listed numerous credible reports of civilian harm and said Israel did not at first cooperate with Washington to boost humanitarian assistance to the enclave. But in each instance it said it could not make a definitive assessment whether any breaches of law had occurred.
“Given Israel’s significant reliance on U.S.-made defense articles, it is reasonable to assess that defense articles covered under NSM-20 have been used by Israeli security forces since October 7 in instances inconsistent with its IHL obligations or with established best practices for mitigating civilian harm,” the State Department said in the report.
“Israel has not shared complete information to verify whether U.S. defense articles covered under NSM-20 were specifically used in actions that have been alleged as violations of IHL or IHRL in Gaza, or in the West Bank and East Jerusalem during the period of the report,” it said.
Because of that, the administration said it still finds credible Israel’s assurances that it is using U.S. weapons in accordance with international law.
Democratic Senator Chris Van Hollen said the administration had “ducked all the hard questions” and avoided looking closely at whether Israel’s conduct should mean military aid is cut off.
“This report contradicts itself because it concludes that there are reasonable grounds to believe violations to international law have occurred, but at the same time that says they’re not finding non compliance,” he told reporters.
More than 34,000 Palestinians have been killed in Israel’s seven-month-old assault on the Gaza Strip, say health officials in the Hamas-ruled enclave. The war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people and abducting
252 others, of whom 133 are believed to remain in captivity in Gaza, according to Israeli tallies.
“EXCESSIVE” CIVILIAN HARM
Israel’s military conduct has come under increasing scrutiny with the soaring death toll and the level of devastation in the Gaza Strip.
U.S. officials at the State Department have been divided over the issue. Reuters reported in late April that officials in at least four bureaus inside the agency have raised serious concerns over Israel’s conduct in Gaza, laying out specific examples where the country might be in breach of the law.
Rights group Amnesty International in late April said U.S.-supplied weapons provided to Israel have been used in “serious violations” of international humanitarian and human rights law, detailing specific cases of civilian deaths and injuries and examples of use of unlawful lethal force.
The U.S. government reviewed numerous reports that raise questions about Israel’s compliance with its legal obligations and best practices for mitigating harm to civilians, the report said.
Those included Israeli strikes on civilian infrastructure, strikes in densely populated areas and others that call into question whether “expected civilian harm may have been excessive relative to the reported military objective.”
According to the report released Friday, in the period after Oct. 7 Israel “did not fully cooperate” with U.S. and other international efforts to get humanitarian aid into Gaza. But it said this did not amount to a breach of a U.S law that blocks the provision of arms to countries that restrict U.S. humanitarian aid.
It said Israel had acted to improve aid delivery since Biden warned Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a call early last month that Washington would withhold some arms supplies if the humanitarian situation did not improve.
The report, Washington has decided to declassify, said individual violations do not necessarily disprove Israel’s commitment to international humanitarian law, as long as it takes steps to investigate and hold violators accountable.
“Israel’s own concern about such incidents is reflected in the fact it has a number of internal investigations underway,” the report said. A senior State Department official confirmed that none of those investigations had yet led to prosecutions.
It also has compiled numerous instances in which humanitarian workers have been killed and military operations had taken place in protected sites but again said it was not able to reach definitive conclusions on whether U.S. weapons were used in these occasions.
(Source: Reuters)
10 May 24. Who are Israel’s main weapons suppliers and who has halted exports?
Washington has suspended a shipment of heavy, bunker-busting bombs to Israel, weapons Israeli forces have used in their war against Hamas militants that has killed nearly 35,000 Palestinians in the Gaza Strip.
President Joe Biden also publicly warned Israel for the first time, in a CNN interview on May 8 that the U.S. would withhold arms supplies if Israeli forces carry out a threatened assault on the Gaza city of Rafah, given this could endanger the lives of hundreds of thousands of displaced civilians there.
The U.S. has long been by far the largest arms supplier to its closest Middle East ally, followed by Germany – whose strong support for Israel reflects in part atonement for the Nazi Holocaust – and Italy.
Two countries, Canada and the Netherlands, have halted arms shipments to Israel this year over concern they could be used in ways violating international humanitarian law – causing civilian casualties and destruction of residential areas – in Gaza.
Most of Gaza’s dead from Israeli bombardments and ground offensives have been civilians, international rights groups say. Israel says it does not target civilians, accusing Hamas militants of hiding among them, which the militants deny.
Following are some details of Israel’s weapons suppliers.
UNITED STATES
The suspended arms delivery to Israel consisted of 1,800 2,000-pound (907-kg) bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs worth tens of millions of dollars, according to U.S. officials. The decision arose from concerns about the “end-use of the 2,000-pound bombs and the impact they could have in dense urban settings (like Rafah)…,” one U.S. official said.
However, billions of dollars worth of U.S. arms remain in the pipeline for Israel, including tank rounds and munitions that convert dumb bombs into precision weapons, although the approval process has slowed, Senator Jim Risch, top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said on May 9.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stopped short of concluding in a pending, highly critical report to Congress on Israel’s conduct in Gaza that it has violated the terms for its use of U.S. weapons, Axios reported on May 9.
(Source: Reuters)
09 May 24. Israel due to get billions of dollars more in US weapons despite Biden pause. Billions of dollars worth of U.S. weaponry remains in the pipeline for Israel, despite the delay of one shipment of bombs and a review of others by President Joe Biden’s administration, concerned their use in an assault could wreak more devastation on Palestinian civilians.
A senior U.S. official said this week that the administration had reviewed the delivery of weapons that Israel might use for a major invasion of Rafah, a southern Gaza city where over 1 million civilians have sought refuge, and as a result paused a shipment of bombs to Israel.
Washington has long urged Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government not to invade Rafah without safeguards for civilians, seven months into a war that has devastated Gaza.
Congressional aides estimated the delayed bomb shipment’s value as “tens of millions” of U.S. dollars.
A wide range of other military equipment is due to go to Israel, including joint direct attack munitions (JDAMS), which convert dumb bombs into precision weapons; and tank rounds, mortars and armored tactical vehicles, Senator Jim Risch, the top Republican on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, told reporters.
Risch said those munitions were not moving through the approval process as quickly as they should be, noting some had been in the works since December, while assistance for Israel more typically sails through the review process within weeks.
Biden administration officials have said they are reviewing additional arms sales, and Biden warned Israel in a CNN interview on Wednesday that the U.S. would stop supplying weapons if Israeli forces make a major invasion of Rafah.
Israel’s assault on Gaza was triggered by an Oct. 7 attack by Islamist Hamas militants, which by its tallies killed 1,200. The subsequent Israeli bombardment has killed some 35,000 Palestinians, according to local health authorities, and displaced the majority of Gaza’s 2.3 million people.
Separately, Representative Gregory Meeks, top Democrat on the House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee, has put a hold on an $18 billion arms transfer of package for Israel that would include dozens of Boeing Co. F-15 aircraft while he awaits more information about how Israel would use them.
Biden’s support for Israel in its war against Hamas has emerged as a political liability for the president, particularly among young Democrats, as he runs for re-election this year. It fueled a wave of “uncommitted” protest votes in primaries and has driven pro-Palestinian protests at U.S. universities.
None of those weapons agreements are part of a spending package Biden signed last month that included about $26 billion to support Israel and provide humanitarian aid.
Risch and Meeks are two of the four U.S. lawmakers – the chair and ranking member of Senate Foreign Relations and chair and ranking member on House Foreign Affairs – who review major foreign weapons deals.
‘FINGERNAILS’
Netanyahu issued a video statement on Thursday saying Israelis “would fight with their fingernails” in an apparent rebuff of Biden.
Republicans accused Biden of backing down on his commitments to Israel. “If the Commander-in-Chief can’t muster the political courage to stand up to radicals on his left flank and stand up for an ally at war, the consequences will be grave,” Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell said in a Senate speech.
Ten other Senate Republicans held a press conference to announce a non-binding resolution condemning “any action by the Biden Administration to withhold or restrict weapons for Israel.”
White House National Security spokesperson John Kirby told reporters Israel was still getting the weapons it needs to defend itself. “He’s (Biden’s) going to continue to provide Israel with the capabilities that it needs, all of them,” Kirby said.
Some Congressional Democrats welcomed Biden’s action.
Senator Chris Murphy, the Democratic chair of the Foreign Relations Mideast subcommittee, cited concern about Rafah.
“I do not think it is our strategic or moral interest to help Israel conduct a campaign in Rafah that is likely to kill thousands of innocent civilians and not likely impact Hamas’ long-term strength in a meaningful way,” he told Reuters. (Source: Reuters)
09 May 24. US warning on arms supplies prompts Israeli defiance, doubts. U.S. President Joe Biden’s announcement that he would withhold arms supplies if Israel went through with its assault of Rafah drew a defiant reaction on Wednesday alongside unease at the possible longer term fallout from the open clash with Israel’s most vital ally.
The warning came after months of increasingly urgent calls for restraint by officials from the administration, which has been paying a heavy political price for its continued support for Israel despite the mounting death toll in Gaza.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would fight “with our fingernails” if necessary and his ministers united in defying the warning.
Whether Biden’s threat to withhold supplies of bombs and artillery shells is carried out, the ability of Israeli forces to operate in Rafah, the southern Gaza city where more than one million displaced Palestinians are sheltering, may not be immediately impacted.
Israel’s chief military spokesperson, Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari, said Israeli forces had sufficient ammunition for the Rafah operation and other planned operations.
“When we speak about difficulties within the Israeli Defence Forces, it would be for the long range or the medium one,” said Yaakov Amidror, a former army general and national security advisor to Netanyahu.
“For war tomorrow in Gaza or war tomorrow in Lebanon, if that happens, that will not make any difference.”
00:28Netanyahu: we’ll fight with ‘fingernails’ if needs be
The war, which began on Oct. 7 with a devastating assault on communities around Gaza by Hamas gunmen who killed some 1,200 people and abducted more than 250 hostages, has fired protests around the world as the death toll from Israeli campaign in Gaza has neared 35,000.
With international pressure mounting on Israel to accept a ceasefire deal with Hamas, the political weight of a step that came after weeks of increasingly urgent appeals by the Biden administration for restraint was unmistakeable.
U.S. officials had already confirmed that deliveries of some precision weapons had been held up as a sign of the increasing unhappiness of the Biden administration at Israel’s refusal to hold back.
Israeli media quoted officials as saying the push to call off the Rafah operation risked removing one of Israel’s last remaining bargaining chips with Hamas, which still holds more than 130 Israelis hostages.
LONGER TERM CONSEQUENCES
With war brewing on the northern border with Lebanon, where Israeli forces have been exchanging fire with the Iran-backed Hezbollah militia for months, the longer term consequences could be just as serious, said Michael Oren, a former Israeli ambassador to the United States.
“My big fear is that the message now gets out that Israel is weak and Israel is vulnerable,” he said. “And that message could be internalized by Hezbollah, by Iran and others.”
“And the (the United States) has this kind of regional war that it didn’t want, and all because it broadcast deep divisions between Israel and the United States.”
Even though any halt to supplies over Rafah could be reversed if fighting blew up in other areas, the ammunition shortages suffered by Ukraine in its war with Russia in recent months underlined the potential problems caused by interruptions to regular supplies of ammunition reaching front line forces.
Hezbollah’s military strength vastly outweighs the forces of Hamas, with thousands of fighters and an arsenal of tens of thousands of missiles capable of hitting Israeli cities.
Israel’s own arms industry is formidable, boasting home grown assets like the Iron Dome missile defence system that has managed to shoot down most of the missiles fired by Hamas. But it is not capable of filling all of Israel’s needs.
“We have remarkable capabilities in Israel, in all fields but there are fields where, even if we were not dependent on the conditions of the American aid money, we would still have to buy weapons from another country,” Avi Dadon, former head of the Defense Ministry’s procurement and production branch, told Israeli radio.
In the longer term, the Biden announcement could prompt Israeli governments to beef up the defence industry even further.
“I don’t see any substitute to the United States of America at the moment,” Amidror said. “It is clear for us that we are going to invest a lot of money to be in a better position to produce for ourselves in the future what we need.”(Source: Reuters)
10 May 24. Israel strikes eastern Rafah as ceasefire talks end with no deal.
- Summary
- Hamas will not make new concessions after accepting proposal, Al-Aqsa TV says
- Israeli envoy to US says hold on arms sends ‘wrong message’
- UNRWA chief says Israeli residents set fire to perimeter of its headquarters in East Jerusalem
- United Nations aid chief says nothing allowed into Gaza for three days
Israeli forces bombarded areas of Rafah on Thursday, Palestinian residents said, as Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu dismissed U.S. President Joe Biden’s threat to withhold weapons from Israel if it assaults the southern Gaza city.
A senior Israeli official said late on Thursday that the latest round of indirect negotiations in Cairo to halt hostilities in Gaza had ended and Israel would proceed with its operation in Rafah and other parts of the Gaza Strip as planned.
Israel has submitted to mediators its reservations about a Hamas proposal for a hostage release deal, the official said.
“If we must, we shall fight with our fingernails,” Netanyahu said in a video statement. “But we have much more than our fingernails.”
In Gaza, Palestinian militant groups Hamas and Islamic Jihad said their fighters fired anti-tank rockets and mortars at Israeli tanks massed on the eastern outskirts of the city.
Residents and medics in Rafah, the biggest urban area in Gaza not yet overrun by Israeli ground forces, said an Israeli attack near a mosque killed at least three people and wounded others in the eastern Brazil neighbourhood.
Video footage from the scene showed the minaret lying in the rubble and two bodies wrapped in blankets.
An Israeli air strike on two houses in the Sabra neighbourhood of Rafah killed at least 12 people including women and children.
Among the dead was a senior commander of the militant Al-Mujahedeen Brigades, and his family, and the family of another group leader, medics, relatives and the group said.
Israel says Hamas militants are hiding in Rafah, where the population has been swelled by hundreds of thousands of Gazans seeking refuge from the bombardments that have reduced most of the coastal enclave to ruins.
In the United States, the White House repeated its hope that Israel would not launch a full operation in Rafah, saying it did not believe that would advance Israel’s aim of defeating Hamas.
“Smashing into Rafah, in [President Biden’s] view, will not advance that objective,” spokesperson John Kirby said.
Kirby said Hamas had been pressured significantly by Israel and there were better options to hunt down what remains of the group’s leadership than an operation with significant risk to civilians.
Israel’s assault on Gaza has killed nearly 35,000 Palestinians and wounded nearly 80,000, most of them civilians, the health ministry in Hamas-run Gaza said.
It launched its offensive in response to a cross-border attack by Hamas militants on Israel on Oct. 7 in which they killed about 1,200 people and abducted 252. Some 128 hostages remain in Gaza and 36 have been declared dead, according to the latest Israeli figures.
Biden on Wednesday issued his starkest warning yet against a full ground invasion in Rafah, telling CNN that: “I made it clear that if they go into Rafah…I’m not supplying the weapons.”
Israel’s ambassador to the United States said the decision to withhold weapons from Israel over Rafah sends the “wrong message” to Hamas and the country’s foes.
“It puts us in a corner because we have to deal with Rafah one way or the other,” Ambassador Michael Herzog told a Carnegie Endowment for International Peace webinar.
The Israeli military has the munitions it requires for operations in Rafah and other planned operations, chief armed forces spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said.
Israeli armed forces have already killed 50 Palestinian gunmen in east Rafah and uncovered several tunnels, Hagari said. Hamas had no immediate comment.
TALKS END
In Cairo, delegations from Hamas, Israel, the U.S., Egypt and Qatar had been meeting since Tuesday. The talks in Egypt’s capital made some headway but no deal was reached, according to two Egyptian security sources.
Izzat El-Risheq, a member of Hamas’ political office in Qatar, said the Hamas delegation had left Cairo, having reaffirmed its approval of the mediators’ ceasefire proposal. The plan entails the release of Israeli hostages held captive in Gaza and a number of Palestinians jailed by Israel.
Hamas blames Israel for the lack of agreement, and its Al-Aqsa TV’s Telegram account said the group would not make any concessions beyond those in the proposal it had accepted.
Israel has said it is open to a truce, but has rejected demands for an end to the war.
U.S. State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said Washington continued to engage with Israel on amendments to a ceasefire proposal, adding work to finalize the text of an agreement was “incredibly difficult”.
MEDICAL SECTOR COLLAPSING
Israeli residents set fire twice to the perimeter of the headquarters of the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees in East Jerusalem, causing extensive damage to the outdoor areas but no casualties, UNRWA chief Philippe Lazzarini wrote on X. There was no immediate comment from Israeli police.
“Once again, the lives of U.N. staff were at a serious risk,” Lazzarini wrote, adding he had decided to close the compound until security is restored.
On Tuesday, Israeli tanks seized the Gaza side of the Rafah border crossing with Egypt, cutting off a vital aid route and forcing 80,000 people to flee the city this week, according to the United Nations.
Israel kept up tank and aerial strikes across Gaza and tanks advanced in the Zeitoun neighbourhood of Gaza City in the north, forcing hundreds of families to flee, residents said. The Israeli military said it was securing Zeitoun, starting with a series of intelligence-based aerial strikes on approximately 25 militant targets.
Deir Al-Balah in central Gaza was packed with people who had fled Rafah in recent days. Palestinian medics said two people, including a woman, were killed when a drone fired a missile at a group of people there.
The closure of the Rafah crossing with Egypt has prevented the evacuation of the wounded and sick and the entry of medical supplies, food trucks and fuel needed to operate hospitals, the Gaza health ministry said on Thursday.
The only kidney dialysis centre in the Rafah area had stopped operating due to the shelling.
“The entire medical sector has collapsed,” said Ali Abu Khurma, a Jordanian surgeon volunteering at Al Aqsa hospital in Deir al-Balah.
United Nations aid chief Martin Griffiths said that for three consecutive days, “nothing and no one has been allowed in or out of Gaza.”
“It means no aid. Our supplies are stuck. Our teams are stuck. Civilians in Gaza are being starved and killed, and we are prevented from helping them. This is Gaza today, even after 7 months of horrors,” Griffiths posted on X. (Source: Reuters)
09 May 24. UK forces airdrop 100 tonnes of aid for Gaza civilians.
The Royal Air Force completed its 11th airdrop today, delivering a total of 110 tonnes of aid from 120 parachutes. In this latest airdrop, the UK has provided ready-to-eat meals, water, rice, tinned goods and flour for the people of Gaza.
- The Royal Air Force completed its 11th airdrop today, delivering a total of 110 tonnes of aid from 120 parachutes
- UK has provided ready-to-eat meals, water, rice, tinned goods and flour for the people of Gaza
- Airdrops are alongside UK’s continued support to get aid in via land routes and international efforts to open a maritime aid corridor
The UK has completed its 11th airdrop into Gaza today, reaching the milestone of over 100 tonnes of life-saving aid delivered by air.
Over the course of 11 Royal Air Force flights, the UK has delivered ready-to-eat meals, water, rice, tinned goods and flour, with a total of 12 tonnes dropped into Northern Gaza today.
The UK began conducting airdrops in late March, as part of the Jordanian international initiative. The Royal Air Force has used A400Ms, flying from Amman, Jordan, where aid pallets attached to parachutes are collected and loaded by RAF and British Army personnel.
The aid is dropped along the northern coastline of Gaza, with drop zones regularly surveyed to ensure civilians are not harmed. Each flight takes around one hour and British personnel work closely with the Royal Jordanian Air Force to plan and conduct each mission.
Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said:
Our commitment to delivering large quantities of aid to those most in need is unwavering, this milestone is both testament to that and a demonstration of where our focus lies over the coming weeks and months.
Given the dire humanitarian situation in Gaza, we deployed RFA Cardigan Bay to the Eastern Mediterranean to support efforts to build a temporary pier to deliver crucial humanitarian assistance.
We continue to pressure Israel to fully open Ashdod Port as well as more land crossings.
Foreign Secretary David Cameron said: “The UK is playing a leadership role in alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza. Through our partnership with Jordan, we have now delivered 100 tonnes of life-saving aid by air. But it is only by land that we will be able to transport the full amount of humanitarian assistance needed. We have seen an encouraging increase in the number of aid trucks getting in, but we must see further action so that more aid gets over the border and is safely distributed.”
Royal Navy support ship RFA Cardigan Bay recently set sail from Cyprus to support international efforts to open a maritime aid corridor to Gaza. The ship is providing accommodation for hundreds of US sailors and soldiers building a temporary pier off the coast of Gaza. According to US estimates, this pier will initially facilitate the delivery of 90 truckloads of aid into Gaza and scale up to 150 truckloads once fully operational. As land routes remain the quickest and most effective means of delivering aid, the UK also continues to engage with Israel to open more land crossings into Gaza. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
09 May 24. IDF Targets Hezbollah’s Elite Radwan Force in Coordinated Strikes Across Southern Lebanon. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a series of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force in southern Lebanon. The strikes focused on a key building in Jabal Rezlane along with several other locations across the region, marking one of the most intensive operations against the militant group in recent times.
The operation involved Israeli fighter jets and artillery units hitting over 20 Hezbollah-associated targets, including buildings and infrastructure in the towns of Khiam, Odaisseh, Blida, Maroun al-Ras, and Ayta ash-Shab. The IDF reported that many of these sites were used to store munitions, as evidenced by secondary explosions observed post-strike. Additional strikes were carried out in the villages of Marwahin and Kafr Kila, responding to recent hostilities initiated by Hezbollah, which included rocket barrages and drone attacks against northern Israel.
The escalation follows a pattern of increasing hostility, with Hezbollah intensifying its assaults on Israel, including the use of rockets, anti-tank missiles, and drones, which activated alarms across multiple Israeli communities. The situation remains tense, with both sides maintaining a delicate balance to avoid a larger conflict, even as they engage in frequent military confrontations. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
09 May 24. US Republicans “appalled” at decision to stop Israel munitions deliveries. The US administration of President Joe Biden has paused the delivery of air-launched guided bombs to Israel, according to report, as Israeli forces plan Rafah ground operation.
The chairmen of the US House Armed Services Committee and House Foreign Affairs Committee have released a joint statement condemning the US administration’s decision to pauses the munitions deliveries to Israel.
According to a report by the Associated Press the munitions included 2,000lb and 500lb bombs, citing an unnamed senior US administration official. Reports emerged in recent days that US President Joe Biden ordered the suspension as Israeli forces look to move into the Rafah area of Gaza, the latest step in their multi-stage operations in Gaza.
US air-launched munitions in this category include the Paveway III and Paveway IV guided bombs.
Israel has been under growing international pressure for the manner in which it is conducting its military campaign in Gaza, which began in October last year after Hamas’ bloody cross border attack. More than 1,200 Israelis were killed in the attack with hundreds more taken hostage by Hamas fighters, with Israeli’s response thought to have resulted in tens of thousands of military and civilian casualties.
However, the move by the Democrat president was widely condemned by senior Republican officials, with the powerful chairs of the House Armed Services Committee and Foreign Affairs Committee rounding on Biden’s decision.
“Withholding arms to Israel weakens Israel’s deterrence against Iran and its proxies like Hamas and Hezbollah. Moreover, this disastrous policy decision was undertaken in secret and deliberately hidden from Congress and the American people,” the two said in the joint statement on 8 May.
“At a time when Israel continues to negotiate in good faith to secure the release of hostages, including American citizens, the administration’s shortsighted, strategic error calls into question its ‘unshakeable commitment’ as an ally,” they added.
Both Rogers and McCaul said that the US administration “must allow these shipments to move forward to uphold the United States’ commitment to Israel’s security and ensure that Israel can defend itself and defeat Hamas”.
US Pentagon does not support Israel ground operation into Rafah
Usually publicly voluble in its support of Israel, Washington in recent weeks has sounded increasing notes of caution at the way the war in Gaza is unfolding, and in particular the latest evolution into the urban areas of Rafah.
The US Pentagon is known to have presented Israel with more limited options to the large-scale operations being planned and carried out by Israel into Rafah.
On 7 May, a US Pentagon spokesperson said that “we do not support a large ground operation into Rafah”, with talks between US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin and Israel Defence Minister Yoav Gallant described as “frank”.
In April the US finally passed a multi-bn-dollar security assistance package for Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan, after months of internal wrangling. The package for Israel alone was judged to be valued at over $26bn.
(Source: army-technology.com)
09 May 24. US warns Israel that Rafah invasion will jeopardise weapons supply as assault continues.
- Summary
- Biden warns U.S. will withhold arms if Israel invades Rafah
- Biden says U.S. weapons not to be used in Rafah
- U.S. delays one shipment of bombs, say US officials
- Hamas says no more concessions in ceasefire talks
U.S. President Joe Biden vowed publicly for the first time to withhold weapons from Israel if its forces make a major invasion of Rafah in southern Gaza while negotiations in Cairo on a ceasefire plan for the enclave were set to continue on Thursday.
“I made it clear that if they go into Rafah, … I’m not supplying the weapons,” Biden, whose administration has repeatedly asked Israel for its plan to protect civilians in Rafah, told CNN in an interview on Wednesday.
Biden acknowledged that U.S. bombs provided to Israel have killed Gaza civilians in the seven-month-old offensive aimed at annihilating Hamas.
The comments, Biden’s starkest yet, increase the pressure on Israel to refrain from a full-scale assault on Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of Palestinians have sought refuge after fleeing combat farther north in Gaza.
There was no immediate comment from Israel on Biden’s remarks, but Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has said the Rafah operation would go ahead. Israel says it must hit Rafah to defeat thousands of Hamas fighters it says are there.
Israel kept up tank and aerial strikes on southern Gaza after moving in via the Rafah border crossing with Egypt on Tuesday, cutting off a vital aid route.
Biden has been under pressure from his fellow Democrats and growing campus protests to deter Israel from invading Rafah. His support of Israel has become a political liability as the president runs for re-election.
The United States is by far the biggest supplier of weapons to Israel, and it accelerated deliveries after the Hamas attacks on Oct. 7 that triggered Israel’s offensive in Gaza.
Biden said U.S. weapons for Israel’s defense, such as for its Iron Dome anti-missile system, would continue.
On Wednesday, U.S. officials confirmed that Washington paused delivery of an arms shipment of 1,800 2,000-pound (907-kg) bombs and 1,700 500-pound bombs to Israel because of the risk to civilians in Gaza.
Four sources said the shipments, delayed for at least two weeks, involved Boeing-made Joint Direct Attack Munitions, which convert dumb bombs into precision-guided ones, as well as Small Diameter Bombs (SDB-1).
They were part of an earlier approved shipment to Israel, not the recent $95bn supplemental aid package the U.S. Congress passed in April.
Israel’s U.N. ambassador, Gilad Erdan, called that decision “very disappointing” but said he did not believe the U.S. would stop supplying arms to Israel.
TALKS IN CAIRO
Palestinian militant group Hamas said late on Wednesday it would not make more concessions to Israel in the truce talks.
In Cairo, delegations from Hamas, Israel, the U.S., Egypt and Qatar have been meeting since Tuesday.
Citing a source familiar with the matter, Egypt’s state-affiliated Al Qahera TV said early on Thursday that areas of disagreement were being resolved and there were signs an agreement will be reached, without giving details.
But Izzat El-Reshiq, a member of Hamas’ political office in Qatar, said in a statement late on Wednesday the group would not go beyond a ceasefire proposal it accepted on Monday.
That would also entail the release of some Israeli hostages in Gaza and Palestinian women and children detained in Israel.
“Israel isn’t serious about reaching an agreement and it is using the negotiation as a cover to invade Rafah and occupy the crossing,” said Reshiq.
On Monday Israel declared that the three-phase truce proposal approved by Hamas was unacceptable because terms had been watered down. It did not respond immediately to the Hamas statement.
The U.S. said on Tuesday that Hamas had revised its ceasefire proposal and the revision could overcome an impasse in negotiations. Just a few hours before Hamas’ latest statement, Washington continued to say the two sides were not far apart.
“We believe there is a pathway to a deal … The two sides are close enough they should do what they can to get to a deal,” U.S. national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters.
The war began when Hamas militants attacked Israel on Oct. 7, killing about 1,200 people and abducting 252, of whom 128 remain hostage in Gaza and 36 have been declared dead, according to the latest Israeli figures.
‘HUMANITARIAN CATASTROPHE’ LOOMS
Hamas said its fighters on Wednesday were battling Israeli forces in Rafah’s east and Islamic Jihad’s fighters attacked Israeli soldiers and military vehicles with heavy artillery near the city’s long abandoned airport.
Israeli tank shells landed in the middle of Rafah, wounding at least 25 people on Wednesday, medics said. Residents said an Israeli air strike killed four people and wounded 16 in western Rafah.
The Israeli military said its troops had discovered Hamas infrastructure in several places in eastern Rafah and were conducting targeted raids in Rafah and airstrikes across the Gaza Strip.
The U.N., Gaza residents and humanitarian groups say further Israeli incursion into Rafah will result in a humanitarian catastrophe.
A U.N. official said no fuel or aid had entered the Gaza Strip due to the military operation, a situation “disastrous for the humanitarian response” in Gaza where more than half the population is suffering catastrophic hunger.
Palestinians have crammed into tented camps and makeshift shelters, battling shortages of food, water and medicine. (Source: Reuters)
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