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Military And Security Developments
Apr 14.
On 13 April, at approximately 2300hrs (Israel time), Iran launched waves of drones, ballistic and cruise missiles towards Israel (see Sibylline Alert – Israel-Iran – 13 April 2024). Iran launched over 300 ordinances, almost all of which were intercepted by Israel, France, Jordan, UK and US air defence systems. The ordinance primarily targeted southern Israel, with interceptor debris seriously injuring a minor in the Arad area (Southern district) and Nevatim Air Force Base in the Negev (Southern district) suffered light damage, but remains operational. At the time of writing, Israel’s rhetoric regarding retaliation remains muted but regional tensions remain high, with numerous countries condemning the attack such as Japan, the US.
SIGNIFICANCE
- The scale of Iran’s attack significantly elevates the risks of Israeli retaliation in the coming days, sustaining high security risks in the region.
- As regional tensions remain high, further temporary airspace closures and/or airline suspensions will remain a realistic possibility, sustaining risks of travel disruption.
- Risks of significant international sanctions against Iran, affecting its imports and exports, will remain high in the coming week.
FORECAST
At present, a direct Israeli strike on Iranian territory remains unlikely, moderating risks of a significant regional escalation. Additionally, Further Iranian strikes on Israel remain highly unlikely over the coming hours. In the event of a direct Israeli military strike on Iranian soil, the IDF would almost certainly limit the scale of the strike(s) by targeting military infrastructure and installations, likely small-sized installations, to moderate risks of further escalation. There is a realistic possibility of Israel pursuing covert sabotage operations to disrupt Iranian military activity, including uranium enrichment practices at nuclear facilities, including through cyber-attacks.
In response to the attacks, Israel will highly likely escalate strikes on Iranian proxies in Lebanon and Syria, elevating physical security and bystander risks, particularly in regions bordering Israel. This is highly likely to include strikes on Lebanese Hizballah positions throughout Lebanon, particularly in the Baalbek valley (Baalbek-Hermel governorate) and potentially in northern Lebanon. Airstrikes in Beirut remain unlikely, however, drone strikes targeting Hizballah senior leadership remain a realistic possibility (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 5 January 2024). The IDF will also likely escalate strikes on Iranian proxies in Syria and there is the realistic possibility of strikes targeting the Aleppo (ALP), Damascus (DAM) and Deir ez-Zor (DEZ) international airports over the coming days. IDF airstrikes in Iraq targeting proxies such as the Islamic Resistance in Iraq also remain possible. There is a realistic possibility of co-ordination between Israel and the US when escalating strikes on proxy facilities in Iraq and Syria, moderately increasing risks of a resumption of proxy attacks on US military installations in the region.
An intensification of IDF strikes in Lebanon and Syria is highly likely to trigger an uptick in retaliatory attacks, elevating security risks in northern and central Israel. Iranian proxies, particularly LH, will likely escalate missile/rocket launches and drone incursions targeting northern Israel, with the realistic possibility of attempted attacks on locations in central Israel. Physical security and bystander risks, including collateral risks associated with interception and damage from shrapnel, will remain elevated throughout Israel over the coming days (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 11 April 2024). Nevertheless, proxies will likely continue primarily targeting IDF positions and bases, moderating risks to large civilian population centres, such as Haifa and Tel Aviv.
Apr 13.
On 13 April, at approximately 2300hrs (Israel time), Iran began launching waves of drones and cruise missiles towards Israel estimated to total approximately 100 ordnance. Additionally, unconfirmed reports claim large forces of pro-Iran Iraqi militias gathering on the Iraq-Syria border. Israeli officials announced the closure of Israel’s air space between 0030hrs to 0730hrs, cancelling all domestic and international flights into and from Israel. Shortly after the Iranian launches, pro-Iranian militias in the region, including the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq announced that they would also participate in the attack(s). However, at the time of writing, there is no indication of their direct involvement. Lastly, Israel Defense Forces (IDF) launched a large attack in southern Lebanon, likely to reduce Lebanese Hizballah (LH) capabilities and ability to join the Iranian attack.
SIGNIFICANCE
- Severe security risks across Israel are likely to continue over the coming 24 hours, with security risks in regional countries likely to also remain elevated.
- The attack elevates risks of regional escalation and an armed conflict involving Israel, Hizballah in Lebanon, Iran and the US.
- Airspace closure in Israel and neighbouring countries will disrupt flights and travel across the region in the coming 24 hours.
FORECAST
Drones will likely reach Israel within six to nine hours, elevating security risks across the region. The IDF will likely begin intercepting drones in Jordanian, Lebanese and/or Syrian airspace. Nevertheless, there is a realistic possibility that numerous drones will enter Israeli airspace, elevating collateral risks associated with drone interception and shrapnel. There is also a realistic possibility that Iran has launched cruise missiles towards Israel, which would arrive within approximately two hours. The drones and/or missiles will likely primarily target IDF, substantially increasing physical security risks in locations in proximity to IDF bases and command centres. Interception of drones and missiles before reaching Israel will elevate security risks in regional countries due to shrapnel and debris, particularly in Jordan, Syria and Iraq. Airspace closures will almost certainly remain in place over the coming hours, while GPS disruption will likely continue disrupting overland movement. As the drones approach Israel, the airspace over Israel and Jordan will almost certainly remain closed, significantly disrupting commercial flight activity. Airlines are also highly likely to temporarily suspend flight services to Iraq, Jordan and Syria. IDF efforts to intercept drones and missiles will almost certainly include further GPS disruption, also limiting overland navigation and further disrupting movement throughout the region. The IDF will likely escalate strikes on locations associated with Hizballah and allied militants in Lebanon and Syria to prevent co-ordinated strikes designed to overwhelm Israeli air defences. These will elevate security and bystander risks in these areas, particularly in southern Lebanon. Furthermore, strikes are likely to result in retaliation, particularly from LH, further elevating security risks in northern Israel. LH retaliation will further elevate risks of major armed escalation with Israel, elevating further risks of rocket launches across Israel including towards central Israel.
Apr 11.
KEY POINTS
- An Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operation launched in Nuseirat (central Gaza) will likely persist in the coming days, further delaying operations into Rafah; it likely reflects the very gradual progression of ceasefire negotiations.
- Iran’s closure of the airspace over its capital Tehran on 10 April and Israeli Air Force (IAF) drills in recent days reflect elevated regional tensions and the risk of Iranian retaliation in the coming weeks.
- Gaza: Overnight on 10-11 April, the IDF initiated an operation in Nuseirat (central Gaza); airstrikes were followed by ground operations carried out by Division 162, Brigade 401 and Brigade 215. The operation is likely to continue in the coming days. It will possibly last a week, during which time it will likely disrupt the movement of personnel (including NGO staff) between southern and northern Gaza.
- Israel-Lebanon: The intensity of hostilities slightly reduced during this monitoring period, though tensions remain elevated. The risk of tensions re-escalating sporadically in the coming days will persist.
- Israel-Iran: Heightened alert levels are in place across Israel and Iran amid persistent elevated tensions following the former’s 1 April strike against Damascus (Syria) and Iranian threats of retaliation. On the night of 10 April, Iran closed the airspace over its capital Tehran, allegedly for ‘military drills’. The closure impacted Lufthansa airline flights, which subsequently announced the suspension of all flights to Tehran until at least 13 April. Additionally, local Israeli news reported that the Israeli Air Force (IAF) has conducted drills with the Cypriot armed forces in recent days, simulating attacks against a distant target. Since 1 April, and amid increasingly threatening rhetoric from Iran, Israel has continued to state that it will retaliate against Iranian strikes on its territory with strikes against Iranian territory. US President Joe Biden hinted in a recent speech that the US will possibly help by intercepting missiles launched by Iran and its proxies, reiterating his administration’s ‘ironclad’ support for Israel. However, Qatar’s Al Jazeera network claimed that the US is willing to go ‘beyond defence’ and that it remains open to the option of joint Israel-US retaliatory action in response to strikes against Israeli territory. Al Jazeera reported on the matter citing an alleged US administration source. Security risks facing Israel and its diplomatic missions (as well countries hosting Iranian proxies such as Iraq, Lebanon and Syria, as well as Iran itself) will remain heightened in the coming days (see our Forecast for additional analysis).
- West Bank: Continued Israeli settler violence in Nablus governorate points to elevated ethno-religious tensions. Overnight on 10-11 April, Israeli settlers conducted an arson attack against a Palestinian vehicle in Mughayyir (Ramallah and al-Bireh governorate) and defaced a building in al-Lubban ash-Sharqiya (Nablus). Amid significantly elevated ethno-religious tensions, there is a realistic possibility of retaliatory attacks in the coming days. Continued clashes between Israeli settlers and Palestinian locals underscore the elevated physical security and bystander risks in and around Israeli settlements and along major roads in the West Bank, particularly Route 458.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- Efforts to increase aid deliveries into Gaza continue, though humanitarian conditions remain critical. On 10 April, the Israeli authorities announced that over 490 aid trucks entered Gaza during the previous day, marking a significant increase from the daily average of 163 trucks recorded throughout March. Also on 10 April, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant announced plans to open another border crossing near Zikim (Southern district) to expedite aid deliveries into northern Gaza. These statements underscore ongoing efforts to increase the supply of humanitarian aid into Gaza amid critical food, water and energy insecurity. Although there is a realistic possibility that increasing aid deliveries will improve humanitarian conditions, the risk of operational disruption remains high. On 11 April, Israeli protesters temporarily blocked the Nitzana border crossing, preventing the passage of aid convoys for several hours. The Israeli security forces evacuated the demonstrators, prompting several altercations. The incident underscored moderately elevated bystander risks for NGO staff involved in aid delivery. Protest activity will likely continue in the coming days, sustaining risks of disruption to cross-border movement; a lack of effective distribution channels within Gaza will likely continue disrupting effective aid provision.
- Turkey’s suspension of numerous exports to Israel highlights sustained regional tensions and elevated risks of supply chain disruption. On 9 April, the Turkish Ministry of Trade announced that it would restrict numerous exports to Israel until a ceasefire is implemented in Gaza. This follows allegations that the Israeli government prevented Turkey from airdropping aid into Gaza. Turkey will restrict the export of minerals, building materials and heavy machinery, among other resources. Subsequently, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz announced his intention to implement similar restrictions on exports. Increasing trade barriers will drive moderate risks of supply chain and operational disruption for Israeli firms in the short-to-medium term, particularly in the construction and manufacturing industries. Although Israel will likely announce similar restrictions in the coming days, such measures are unlikely to restrict oil exports to Turkey significantly, reducing energy security concerns.
- US President Joe Biden called for Israel to accept a ceasefire agreement, though a significant shift in bilateral relations remains unlikely. On 10 April, Biden called for Israel to accept a six-to eight-week ceasefire with Hamas during a pre-recorded televised interview; this marks a substantial departure from Biden’s previous statements, in which he primarily accused Hamas of obstructing progress during negotiations. However, amid increasing regional tensions and concerns that Iran and/or its proxies will escalate attacks against Israel, Biden stated on 10 April that US support for Israel is ‘ironclad’. Taken together, these statements indicate that while the Biden administration will likely continue pressuring Israel to increase aid deliveries and moderate IDF operations in southern Gaza, a substantial shift in US-Israel relations remains unlikely.
- Continued pro-Palestine activism in the UK underscores the elevated risks of vandalism and defacement facing Israel-linked entities and public buildings. On 10 April, protesters associated with the Youth Demand and Palestine Action activist groups defaced the exterior of the Ministry of Defence (MoD) in the capital London. The groups stated that the defacement was in protest against continued arms sales and the government’s ongoing support for Israel. Continued acts of high-visibility activism underscore the increasing domestic pressure on the UK government to moderate its support for Israel. As IDF operations in Gaza continue, further demonstrations and instances of activism are highly likely, elevating the risks facing public and private sector entities linked to Israel. Firms associated with Israel, particularly those in the defence industry, will also face elevated risks of activists targeting premises via protests, defacement and criminal damage; high-profile Israeli individuals will likely face elevated risks of harassment.
FORECAST
IDF operations in Nuseirat indicate that an expansion of military ground operations into Rafah is not imminent. The operation in Nuseirat highlights Israel’s shift to more surgical raids as part of its third phase of the conflict, focusing on areas in Gaza where it has already conducted limited clearing operations. As such, there is a realistic possibility that the IDF will prioritise similar operations in Deir al-Balah (central Gaza) in the coming days or after the current operation. While an expansion of ground operations into Rafah is unlikely in the coming days, it remains a realistic possibility in the coming weeks. There is also a realistic possibility that continued delays to the Rafah offensive indicate that ceasefire negotiations between Israel and Hamas are progressing, with Israel avoiding longer-term operations. At present, a ceasefire agreement would likely result in Hamas releasing 40 Israeli hostages in exchange for a four-to-eight-week ceasefire, the release of over 900 Palestinian prisoners and the return of approximately 150,000 displaced Palestinian civilians to northern Gaza. Even so, negotiations remain highly sensitive and prone to deadlock, moderating prospects for a ceasefire agreement in the short term.
Security risks in Iran and Israel will likely persist in the coming three weeks. While the risk of a direct Iranian attack against Israel are elevated, Iran is more likely to increase its support for its proxies to conduct attacks. In the event of a proxy strike, Israel will likely focus on targeting the responsible parties, rather than conducting direct strikes against Iran. While Lebanese Hizballah (LH) has also threatened retaliation against Israel, it is unlikely to intensify attacks to the extent that Israel initiates full-scale military operations along the Israel-Lebanon border. Similarly, LH is unlikely to open a full military front against Israel, which would likely include a significant escalation in attacks designed to overwhelm Israel’s air defences and limit the IDF’s mobility. Nevertheless, there is a realistic possibility of LH launching a single large-scale, high-capacity attack, driving elevated physical security risks across Israel in the coming days. There is a realistic possibility that such an attack would employ GPS-guided munitions and target locations further within Israeli territory, including central Israel. Regardless, such an attack would likely target IDF bases and/or command centres rather than civilian population centres. In the event of a major escalation resulting from LH attacks or a direct Iranian attack, there is a realistic possibility that the US would increase its support for Israel, potentially intercepting projectiles targeting the country. Yet regardless of US intervention, the security risks facing Israel and Israeli-linked assets and entities worldwide will remain elevated in the coming three weeks, particularly during Passover Eve (22 April).
Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):
- A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
- High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
- Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
- Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
- An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
- US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
- Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
- The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza
Apr 09.
*Israel-Turkey: Export restrictions reflect domestic pressure, elevated regional tensions. On 9 April, Turkey announced that it would impose export restrictions on Israel over its refusal to allow Turkey to airdrop aid into Gaza. According to the Turkish trade ministry, the restrictions took effect as of 9 April; they include 54 product categories, including iron, fertilizer, construction equipment, cement and aviation fuel. The measures will particularly elevate business operation risks in the construction sector due to already rising prices of construction materials. The measures follow rising protests in Turkey demanding an end to trade with Israel. Without a ceasefire agreement, we assess that diplomatic relations between Israel and Turkey are likely to continue deteriorating in the coming weeks, particularly if Israel initiates a military campaign in Rafah. This will sustain the risk of domestic unrest in Turkey and further restrictions on trade with Israel.
Apr 08.
KEY POINTS
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) withdrew its 98th division from Khan Yunis, leaving one brigade in the Gaza Strip; this underscores that the IDF is moving to its third phase of fighting, focusing on targeted raids.
- An Israeli driver injured five demonstrators at an anti-government hostage-release protest in Tel Aviv, highlighting increased division within Israeli society and the growing risks of violent clashes between protesters and counter-protesters.
- Gaza: On 7 April, the IDF withdrew the 98th Division from Khan Yunis, leaving only one brigade (the Nahal Brigade) operating in Gaza. The Nahal Brigade remains in the Netzarim Corridor, where it is able to control population movement between northern and southern Gaza and to launch operations into either area rapidly. The withdrawal reflects the IDF’s continued shift to focus on limited and targeted operations within Gaza as part of the third phase of the war. There is a realistic possibility that the move is also a result of mounting international and US pressure, as well as a gesture to facilitate progress in hostage/ceasefire talks. However, an operation in Rafah remains a realistic possibility; the likelihood of an operation will grow in the coming two months, particularly if hostage/ceasefire negotiations break down.
- Israel-Lebanon: Hostilities between Lebanese Hizballah (LH) and the IDF continue at previously observed levels. Overnight on 6-7 April, the IDF struck LH targets in the Baalbek area (Baalbek-Hermel governorate) in response to LH downing an IDF Hermes 900 drone on 6 April. The strikes are consistent with established IDF response patterns following the loss of drones. Furthermore, on 8 April, the IDF killed Ali Ahmed Hussein, a brigade-level commander in the LH Radwan Forces in As-Sultaniyah (southern Lebanon). The level of hostilities remains elevated but stable, signalling a broad plateauing of the escalation levels observed in the past three weeks. Further gradual escalation from this point remains likely over the coming weeks.
- Israel: On 6 April, an Israeli car-ramming attack injured five demonstrators during an anti-government protest in Tel Aviv, moderately injuring one. The incident highlights the elevated domestic unrest risks and growing divisions within Israeli society. These will continue increasing security and bystander risks near protest sites across Israel; Haifa, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv remain the main protest hotspots. Furthermore, in the absence of a ceasefire and a hostage-release deal, protests are likely to continue increasing in intensity and frequency in the coming weeks. This trend will likely drive further police deployments and heavy-handed protest dispersal methods, including mounted units and water cannons, compounding security and bystander risks around demonstrations.
- West Bank: On 7 April, an armed sole perpetrator injured a civilian and a soldier along Highway 55 near Nabi Ilyas Junction (Qalqilya governorate). The perpetrator escaped to a nearby village, where the security forces neutralised a large IED in his car, indicating that the individual was planning a more sophisticated attack. The incident reflects the elevated security risks in the West Bank, particularly along roads. Furthermore, it highlights the increasing capabilities of sole perpetrators in the West Bank. These capabilities include modern assault rifles and complex attacks involving IEDs.
*Israel: Car-ramming of anti-government protesters highlights increasing domestic tensions. On 6 April, a car ramming attack moderately injured one person and impacted four others at an anti-government protest in Tel Aviv. Footage from the incident showed the driver heckling protesters, before returning to his car and accelerating into a group of attendees. The incident highlights increasing domestic unrest and in-fighting within Israeli society over the Israel-Hamas war. Anti-government protests across Israel have increased in intensity over the past week; hotspots include Haifa, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv. Protests are likely to continue increasing in frequency and intensity in the coming weeks, elevating travel disruption risks in big cities. The police’s continued use of coercive dispersal methods during protests, including mounted units and water cannons, will sustain elevated security and bystander risks. The risk of clashes between protesters and pro-government counter-protesters will likely increase, further elevating security risks. However, risks of vandalism and the targeting of businesses near protest spots remain low.
*Western Sahara: French investment plans increase regional tensions, moderately elevate attack risks. On 7 April, Western Sahara’s information ministry condemned a statement by the French foreign minister indicating that France will likely invest in Moroccan electricity infrastructure development projects in Dakhla (Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab). Although Morocco claims Western Sahara as part of its jurisdiction, the Algeria-backed Polisario Front also claims to administer the disputed territory as an independent state. Although French investment will likely improve energy security in Western Sahara, there is a realistic possibility of Polisario militants targeting infrastructure development efforts over the coming months. While high-capacity attacks remain unlikely, there is a realistic possibility of increasing militant activity disrupting overland movement and supply chain continuity throughout the territory. Additionally, France’s statement will likely increase regional tensions with Algeria and increase risks of demonstrations targeting French embassies and consulates. This will moderately elevate risks of travel disruption through the Algerian capital Algiers, as well as Annaba (Annaba province) and Oran (Oran province). (Source: Sibylline)
15 Apr 24. US President Joe Biden has urged Israel to show restraint after Iran’s drone and missile attack, as Washington seeks to de-escalate Middle East tensions and reduce the risk of a full-blown regional war. Israel’s war cabinet met on Sunday to consider the Jewish state’s response to Iran’s attack, but had not yet made a decision on what action it would take, an Israeli government insider said. The person added it was clear that Israel had to respond, “but just unclear when and how big”. Iran’s attack was the first such assault from its own territory against Israel. Tehran was retaliating for a suspected Israeli strike on its consular building in Damascus this month that killed several Iranian commanders. Initial market reaction to Saturday’s attack was muted. Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, edged down as trading began in Asia. Most Asian stock markets opened lower on Monday but the Japanese yen — often seen as a haven from market turmoil — weakened against the dollar, touching its lowest level since 1990. Iran’s strike came amid a wave of hostilities triggered by Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, and the Jewish state’s retaliatory response against the Palestinian militant group in Gaza. It has intensified concerns that it will prompt an escalatory response from Israel and push the Middle East into a full-blown conflict. Israel was discussing its options with all its main partners, especially the Biden administration, but the decision would ultimately rest with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet, the government insider said. War cabinet member Benny Gantz said earlier on Sunday that Israel would respond “in the way and at the time that suits us”. Biden had counselled Israel to take a measured approach. “The president has been clear. We don’t want to see this escalate,” said John Kirby, spokesperson for the US National Security Council, on NBC’s Meet the Press. “We’re not looking for a wider war with Iran.” In a telephone call with Netanyahu after Iran’s attack, Biden told his Israeli counterpart that Israel had “come out far ahead” of the Islamic republic, a senior US official said. Biden said Israel had “clearly demonstrated its military superiority”, the official added. Israeli officials said Iran had fired more than 300 projectiles, including 170 drones, 30 cruise missiles and 120 ballistic missiles at Israel beginning late on Saturday night and continuing over the course of several hours.
Iran-backed militants in Lebanon, Iraq and Yemen also fired rockets, drones and missiles at Israel. Daniel Hagari, a spokesman for Israel’s military, said 99 per cent of the barrage had been intercepted. A girl was critically injured by shrapnel in the south of the country and an air force base suffered minor damage, but there were no other reports of serious impacts, he added. Hardliners in Netanyahu’s government demanded decisive action. “We need a crushing attack,” Itamar Ben-Gvir, the ultranationalist national security minister wrote on X, while Bezalel Smotrich, finance minister, said that if Israel “hesitates” then “we will put ourselves and our children in existential danger”. General Mohammad Bagheri, chief of staff of the Iranian armed forces, said by targeting the Iranian consulate in Damascus in an attack on April 1, Israel had “crossed a red line that was unbearable”. “The mission is accomplished and the operation is over and we have no intentions of going further,” Bagheri said, but if Israel opted to “commit any act against us, be it on our territory or our compounds in Syria and elsewhere, the next operation will be larger”. Charles Michel, president of the EU Council, said a crisis meeting of G7 leaders on Sunday had “unanimously condemned Iran’s unprecedented attack against Israel”. “All parties must exercise restraint. We will continue all our efforts to work towards de-escalation,” he added. Recommended News in-depthMiddle East conflict Iran rolls dice in conflict with Israel G7 leaders discussed possible additional sanctions against Iran in response to the attack, but no consensus was found on how they should be applied, a person briefed on the discussion said. António Guterres, UN secretary-general, condemned Iran’s attack but urged the organisation’s members not to further escalate tensions in the Middle East through reprisals against the Islamic republic. (Source: FT.com)
15 Apr 24. The United Kingdom condemns unequivocally Iran’s reckless attack against Israel: UK statement at the UN Security Council. Statement by Ambassador Barbara Woodward, UK Permanent Representative to the UN, at the UN Security Council briefing on Iran’s attack against Israel, Sunday 14 April 2024. The United Kingdom condemns unequivocally Iran’s reckless attack against Israel, which risked thousands of civilian casualties. The scale and nature of Iran’s heinous assault – the first direct attack from Iran on Israeli soil – poses grave risks to the security and stability of citizens across the Middle East. The United Kingdom has long been clear that Iran plays an unacceptable role in destabilising the region, and that it also bears responsibility for the actions of the groups it has supported militarily, financially, and politically over many years. Through this attack, Iran has once again demonstrated that it is intent on sowing chaos in the region. As we have demonstrated, the United Kingdom will continue to stand up for Israel’s security, and that of all our regional partners, including Jordan and Iraq. We welcome the actions of our allies to deter the Iranian threat. No one wants to see further bloodshed. The United Kingdom is also continuing to work urgently alongside the international community to stabilise the situation and prevent further escalation. It is vital that all parties exercise maximum restraint and refrain from any action that may heighten tensions further in the region. We also call on Iran to release the MSC Aries and its crew unconditionally and without delay. Iran’s actions do nothing to advance the prospects for peace in Israel and Gaza. As set out in Security Council resolution 2728, the United Kingdom remains resolved to work with international partners to secure an immediate pause in the fighting in Gaza to get aid in and hostages out, leading to a sustainable ceasefire without a return to destruction, fighting and loss of life. (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
14 Apr 24. Most of the Iranian drones over Syria were downed by Israel, US, intelligence sources say. Most of the Iranian drones flying over Syria’s airspace during Tehran’s strikes overnight were downed by Israeli and U.S. jets before reaching their targets in Israel, two Western intelligence sources said on Sunday.
They told Reuters the aerial interceptions shot down dozens of missiles and drones fired by Iran that flew above southern Syria in the Deraa province, the Syrian Golan Heights and several locations in eastern Syria along the border with Iraq.
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U.S. air defences operated from the U.S. base in al-Tanf, as well as along the Jordanian border and in eastern Syria, where Washington maintains hundred of troops in several air bases, one source said.
He could not confirm whether U.S. military aircraft and defence destroyers deployed in the Middle East were used in what he described as a “highly prepared” response based on accurate intelligence on both the timing of Iran’s retaliation and its scope, using a swarm of drones and missiles.
Iran launched its attack in response to a suspected Israeli airstrike on its embassy compound in Damascus on April 1 that killed officers of the elite Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp. Israel has neither confirmed nor denied responsibility for the attack.
The Pantsir air defence systems that Iran operates from several air bases inside Syria were ineffective in downing any Israeli aircraft, both sources added, without giving further details.
00:28UN chief urges restraint after Iran attacks Israel
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A regional intelligence source said U.S. air defences also helped Jordan to down at least a dozen drones and missiles that were flying over the country towards Jerusalem.
Iranian drones that came from the direction of Iraq and flew over southern Jordan and the city of Aqaba that were heading to Israel’s Eilat port were also intercepted, he added. (Source: Reuters)
15 Apr 24. Iran says it gave warning before attacking Israel. US says that’s not true.
• Summary
• Iran said it gave 72 hours’ notice of attack
• U.S. denies receiving extensive warning
• Israel and allies downed most drones and missiles
Turkish, Jordanian and Iraqi officials said on Sunday that Iran gave wide notice days before its drone and missile attack on Israel, but U.S. officials said Tehran did not warn Washington and that it was aiming to cause significant damage.
Iran launched hundreds of drones and missiles on Saturday in a retaliatory strike after a suspected Israeli strike on its embassy compound in Syria.
Most of the drones and missiles were downed before reaching Israeli territory, though a young girl was critically injured and there were widespread concerns of further escalation.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian said on Sunday that Iran gave neighbouring countries and Israel’s ally the United States 72 hours’ notice it would launch the strikes.
Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said it had spoken to both Washington and Tehran before the attack, adding it had conveyed messages as an intermediary to be sure reactions were proportionate.
“Iran said the reaction would be a response to Israel’s attack on its embassy in Damascus and that it would not go beyond this. We were aware of the possibilities. The developments were not a surprise,” said a Turkish diplomatic source.
One senior official in U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration denied Amirabdollahian’s statement, saying Washington did have contact with Iran through Swiss intermediaries but did not get notice 72 hours in advance.
“That is absolutely not true,” the official said. “They did not give a notification, nor did they give any sense of … ‘these will be the targets, so evacuate them.'”
Tehran sent the United States a message only after the strikes began and the intent was to be “highly destructive” said the official, adding that Iran’s claim of a widespread warning may be an attempt to compensate for the lack of any major damage from the attack.
“We received a message from the Iranians as this was ongoing, through the Swiss. This was basically suggesting that they were finished after this, but it was still an ongoing attack. So that was (their) message to us,” the U.S. official said.
Iraqi, Turkish and Jordanian officials each said Iran had provided early warning of the attack last week, including some details.
The attack with drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles risked causing major casualties and escalating the conflict.
U.S. officials said on Friday and Saturday they expected an imminent attack and urged Iran against one, with Biden tersely saying his only message to Tehran was: “Don’t.”
ESCALATION
Two Iraqi sources, including a government security adviser and a security official, said Iran had used diplomatic channels to inform Baghdad about the attack at least three days before it happened.
The exact timing of the attack was not disclosed at that point, but was passed to Iraqi security and military authorities hours before the strikes, allowing Baghdad to close its airspace and avoid fatal accidents.
“The government clearly understood from the Iranian officials that the U.S. military in Iraq was also aware of the attack in advance,” said the Iraqi security official.
A senior Jordanian official said Iran had summoned Arab envoys in Tehran on Wednesday to inform them of their intention to carry out an attack, though it did not specify the timing.
Asked if Iran had also given details about the targets and kind of weapons to be used, the Jordanian source did not respond directly but indicated that that was the case.
An Iranian source briefed on the matter said Iran had informed the U.S. through diplomatic channels that included Qatar, Turkey and Switzerland about the scheduled day of the attack, saying it would be conducted in a manner to avoid provoking a response.
How far escalation can be avoided remains in question. Biden has told Israel the United States will not join any Israeli retaliation, the U.S. official said.
However, Israel is still weighing its response and will “exact the price from Iran in the fashion and timing that is right for us”, Israeli minister Benny Gantz said on Sunday. (Source: Reuters)
13 Apr 24. Iranian retaliation is a reminder of risks to U.S. troops in region. Today, Iran fired drones toward Israel, beginning its retaliatory attack weeks after an Israeli strike on its diplomatic facility in Syria. Defense Priorities Policy Director Benjamin Friedman issued the following statement in response: “Iran sending drones to attack Israel is lamentable. The United States should condemn Iran for this act and criticize the Israeli government for picking a distracting and unnecessary fight with Iran by attacking its diplomatic facilities in Syria, even as they prosecute their war in Gaza. In any case, the United States should not go to war with Iran on behalf of Israel or anyone else. The United States has no obvious security interest at stake in that fight.
“Of course, American sympathies lie mainly with the Israelis, who are practically U.S. allies. But the Israeli government has courted a fight with Iran, perhaps encouraged by the prospect of U.S. help in going after Iran. Instead of talking about “ironclad” support for Israel, the president should have made clear the U.S. support is limited and does not extend to all circumstances. War with Iran would imperil U.S. security for no obvious pay off. Rather than continuing to egg on conflict in the region by offering support and weapons to various quasi allies, the United States should be reducing its role and removing its forces. We should be tamping down tension, not standing by as our friends settle grudges in assurance of our backing.” (Source: Defense Priorities)
10 Apr 24. U.S. Military on High Alert, Prepared to Assist Israel Against Potential Iranian Threats. According to a statement provided to Al-Jazeera by a senior U.S. official, military assets under the U.S. Central Command are currently on a heightened state of alert and have been positioned to assist Israel in the defense of its airspace. This development comes amidst growing concerns over a possible large-scale retaliatory attack by Iran and Iranian-backed proxy groups operating within the region. The official emphasized that the United States is prepared to support Israel in countering such threats, underscoring the strong military and strategic partnership between the two nations. Furthermore, the official noted that the possibility of joint retaliatory strikes by the United States and Israel against Iranian forces and their allies has not been dismissed. This statement suggests a readiness to take decisive action if necessary, reflecting the seriousness with which both countries view the potential for Iranian aggression. The anticipation of such an attack has led to increased vigilance and strategic preparations to safeguard Israeli airspace and deter any attempts to compromise regional stability. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
09 Apr 24. Israeli seaborne missile defence system used for first time. Israel for the first time used a seaborne missile defence system to shoot down a drone approaching from the Red Sea that had set off sirens in the port city of Eilat, the military said on Tuesday. Eilat has been a frequent target for launches by Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen as a show of support for Hamas, the Palestinian group that rules Gaza and is also backed by Iran. Israel positioned missile boats in the Red Sea after the start of the war in Gaza, the military said. One of those missile boats shot down the drone with the new system called the C-Dome.
“Overnight, for the first time ever, an IDF Sa’ar 6-class corvette missile ship successfully intercepted a UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) that had approached from the east and had crossed into the area of the Gulf of Eilat,” the military said.
C-Dome, according to Israeli defence contractor Rafael, uses the same interceptors as the land-based Iron Dome that counters shorter range shorter range rockets and drones. It bookends Israel’s multi-tier air defence array opposite Arrow-3, which is designed to intercept ballistic missiles outside the earth’s atmosphere. (Source: Reuters)
09 Apr 24. Senior US Democrat wants more answers before approving Israel F-15 sale. The top Democrat on the U.S. House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee said on Tuesday he would not approve a massive arms transfer to Israel until he has more information about how Israel would use the weapons.
“I’m waiting for assurances,” Representative Gregory Meeks told CNN.”… I want to make sure that I know the types of weapons and what the weapons would be utilized for,” he said.
Reuters reported on April 1 that President Joe Biden’s administration was weighing whether to go ahead with an $18 bn arms transfer package for Israel that would include dozens of Boeing F-15 aircraft.
The news came as Biden faced pressure from foreign partners, human rights groups and some of his fellow Democrats in Congress to impose conditions on arms transfers to rein in Israel’s offensive in Hamas-ruled Gaza.
Six months into Israel’s air and ground campaign in Gaza, triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack on southern Israel, the devastated Palestinian enclave faces famine and widespread disease with nearly all its inhabitants now homeless.
U.S. law requires Congress to be notified of major foreign military sales agreements, and allows it to block such sales by passing a resolution of disapproval over human rights violations or other concerns, although no such resolution has ever passed and survived a presidential veto.
An informal review process allows the Democratic and Republican leaders of foreign affairs committees to vet such agreements before a formal notification to Congress, which means any of them can hold up an agreement for months or longer by asking for more information. Meeks is one of those four officials.
Meeks said there has been “enough of the indiscriminate bombing” in Israel’s campaign in Gaza. “I don’t want the kind of weapons that Israel has to be utilized to have more death. I want to make sure that humanitarian aid gets in. I don’t want people starving to death and I want Hamas to release the hostages,” Meeks said.
Meeks said he would decide whether or not he would approve the arms transfer after he had more information.
Israel is seeking to beef up its already formidable fleet of warplanes not just for its continuing fight against Hamas but to ward off any further threat from the Tehran-backed Lebanese armed group Hezbollah on its northern border as well as from Iran, its regional arch-foe. (Source: Reuters)
09 Apr 24. IDF Eliminates Hezbollah Special Forces Commander in Airstrike. A senior commander of Hezbollah, identified as Ali Ahmed Hassin, was killed in an Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) airstrike in southern Lebanon. Hassin, a field commander of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan force, was targeted on Sunday night as part of the IDF’s operations against figures they accuse of conducting terror operations against Israel.
The IDF confirmed that the strike was aimed at a property in the town of as-Sultaniyah in southern Lebanon, resulting in the death of Hassin along with two other operatives under his command. Hassin, described by the IDF as holding a rank equivalent to a brigade commander, was implicated in planning and executing attacks against Israeli civilians, particularly in the northern regions of Israel. These attacks included efforts to infiltrate Israel and conduct operations in the Ramim Ridge area, which has seen repeated rocket, missile, and explosive-laden drone fire amid the ongoing conflict.
This operation marks a continuation of the intense conflict that has unfolded following a Hamas terror attack on Israel on October 7, leading to a broader confrontation involving Hezbollah and Israeli forces. According to Israeli sources, the past six months have seen the deaths of more than 30 Hezbollah commanders and 270 fighters due to Israeli airstrikes. In contrast, Hezbollah’s rocket fire has resulted in the deaths of approximately a dozen Israeli soldiers and several civilians, alongside widespread displacement of civilians on both sides of the border.
The IDF’s actions, including the strike on Hassin, are part of a broader campaign against Hezbollah and its positions in southern Lebanon, which has included targeting military compounds, command centers, and rocket launchers associated with the group. This campaign has significantly impacted Hezbollah’s operational capabilities, though the group continues to launch attacks against Israeli targets.
Following the airstrike that killed Hassin, Hezbollah acknowledged his death, stating he was killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” a term the group uses for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. The IDF has reported that Hezbollah, in retaliation, has continued its attacks on northern Israel, including the launch of an explosive-laden drone near Rosh Hanikra, which caused a small fire but no reported injuries. Hezbollah claimed this attack targeted an Israeli naval base in the area.
This ongoing conflict has seen extensive military engagements, with Hezbollah launching thousands of rockets, missiles, and drones from Lebanon and Syria at northern Israel. The IDF has responded with widespread airstrikes against Hezbollah positions, leading to significant casualties and further heightening tensions in the region. This escalation comes amid broader regional tensions, including an alleged Israeli strike in Damascus that killed members of Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and statements from Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah indicating a planned response to Israeli actions. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
08 Apr 24. Israeli Forces Withdraw from Khan Younis, Continue Operations in Gaza. The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) announced the withdrawal of its ground forces from Khan Younis, in southern Gaza, after months of intense fighting. On Sunday, the IDF confirmed that the 98th division had completed its mission in Khan Younis, moving out of the area to recuperate and prepare for future operations. Despite this withdrawal, the IDF maintains a presence in Gaza, with the 162nd division and the Nahal brigade continuing operations to ensure the IDF’s operational flexibility and precision in intelligence-based activities.
Lt. Gen. Herzi Halevi, in a press briefing, emphasized that the military’s objective in Gaza has not yet been fully accomplished, pointing to ongoing efforts to neutralize Hamas brigades across the Gaza Strip. He highlighted the significant deterrence and degradation of Hamas’s military infrastructure but acknowledged the long road ahead to achieve Israel’s strategic goals in the region.
Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant outlined the withdrawal as a step towards regrouping for future missions, notably mentioning Rafah as a critical area for upcoming operations.
The reduction of IDF ground forces in Khan Younis, according to Israeli public broadcaster and CNN affiliate Channel 11, leaves the remaining forces strategically positioned along the Netzarim Corridor. This area, splitting the Gaza Strip in two, remains a tactical focus for Israeli operations, facilitating control over movement and access within the region.
In light of the withdrawal, international reactions have been cautious. White House National Security Communications Adviser John Kirby interpreted the move as a necessary operational pause for Israeli forces, highlighting the enduring nature of the conflict and the necessity for Israel to recalibrate its military efforts in light of ongoing challenges and international concerns regarding civilian safety and humanitarian access. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
06 Apr 24. Investigation Reveals Israeli Military’s Dystopian AI Targeting System ‘Lavender.’ A recent investigation by +972 Magazine and Local Call has uncovered the deployment of an artificial intelligence-based targeting system named “Lavender” by the Israeli military in its operations in Gaza. This system, described for the first time through the insights of six Israeli intelligence officers with direct involvement, has marked tens of thousands of Gazans as potential targets for assassination with minimal human oversight, leading to an unprecedented number of airstrikes on Palestinian territories, especially during the early stages of the conflict.
Lavender was designed to identify all suspected members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), regardless of rank, as potential targets. Early in the conflict, the system flagged as many as 37,000 Palestinians as suspects, leading to their homes being targeted for airstrikes. Officers reportedly had minimal involvement in the decision-making process, often serving merely as a “rubber stamp” for the AI’s selections, dedicating about 20 seconds to review each target, mainly to confirm the target’s gender.
Lavender’s role in target generation represents a significant departure from previous practices. The system’s implementation facilitated a drastic increase in target generation, leading to the automated designation of thousands as potential militants, significantly based on AI analysis without thorough human verification.
This investigation has raised serious ethical and legal questions regarding the use of AI in military operations, particularly concerning civilian casualties and the accountability mechanisms in place for decisions made by artificial intelligence systems. The Israeli military, in response to these allegations, has denied any policy leading to the indiscriminate targeting of civilians, stating that Lavender serves as a database to cross-reference intelligence sources for up-to-date information on militant operatives, emphasizing adherence to international law and IDF directives in targeting decisions. John Kirby informed CNN on Thursday that the White House is currently examining the report, noting that its contents have yet to be confirmed by the US.
(Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
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