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Military And Security Developments
Mar 28.
KEY POINTS
- The recent uptick in hostilities between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) is likely to continue in the coming days following the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) deepest strikes into Lebanon since 7 October and LH attempts to hit critical IDF bases.
- Land Day on 30 March will elevate ethno-religious tensions and domestic unrest risks across Israel, with attack risks particularly heightened in the West Bank and Jerusalem area.
- Gaza: IDF operations continue across Gaza; they are primarily concentrated around the al-Shifa Hospital (northern Gaza) and al-Amal neighbourhood in Khan Yunis (southern Gaza). Tensions around Rafah continue to escalate, with sporadic airstrikes targeting the area on 27 March. While the IDF is likely to be preparing for an operation in Rafah, we assess that any such operation is unlikely as long as negotiation efforts continue; Ramadan and the recent UNSC resolution represent additional factors discouraging imminent operations.
- Israel-Lebanon: The uptick in hostilities has continued, with Israel sustaining its airstrikes deep into Lebanon. On 26 March, the IDF conducted an airstrike near Hermel (Baalbek-Hermel governorate) to the north of Beirut; this represents the furthest strike into Lebanon since 7 October. Furthermore, on 26-27 March, Israel conducted an overnight airstrike against an emergency medical compound in Hebbariye (Nabatieh governorate) operated by the Lebanese al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya militant group; the strike killed seven people associated with the group. Lebanese Hizballah (LH) also increased the number and intensity of cross-border rocket barrages into Israel, targeting Meron Air Traffic Control base and killing one Israeli civilian in Kiryat Shmona. On 28 March, Israeli air defence systems intercepted unknown targets above the city of Safed (Northern district), which also hosts the IDF northern command base. The uptick in hostilities is likely to continue in the coming days, with the latest interception likely to prompt further long range IDF strikes or assassination attempts in Lebanon. Consequently, security and bystander risks in northern Israel and across Lebanon will remain elevated; LH is increasingly likely to attempt to conduct strikes outside their normal range deeper into Israel’s Northern district.
- West Bank: A shooting along Route 90 reflects an uptick in attacks and increased ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank. On 28 March, an unidentified gunman injured three Israeli civilians while shooting at Israeli vehicles along Route 90 near al-Auja (Jericho governorate) in the West Bank’s Jordan Valley area. At the time of writing, the Israeli security forces are conducting a manhunt for the perpetrator, who escaped the scene. As part of the hunt, the IDF has shut sections of Route 90 between Naama and Naaran settlements (both Jericho governorate); it has also erected numerous roadblocks in the area and allegedly closed the Allenby/King Hussein Bridge crossing to Jordan. Elevated Israeli security operations in the area are likely in the coming days, further elevating travel disruption risks. The shooting highlights elevated ethno-religious tensions and attack risks in the West Bank. These are particularly elevated in the Jordan Valley area, where militant groups are escalating their efforts to smuggle weapons across from Jordan to the West Bank.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- The Israeli government withdrew from several key diplomatic engagements, underscoring increasing international tensions following the passage of a UN ceasefire resolution. After the UNSC passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza on 25 March, the Israeli government recalled several representatives from ceasefire negotiations in Qatar, citing hardening Hamas demands. While several negotiators remain in place, numerous sticking points continue to limit progress and reports indicate that negotiations stalled on 27 March. As such, Israel and Hamas are unlikely to reach a ceasefire agreement over the coming days, further exacerbating regional tensions. Following the resolution’s passage, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu also cancelled a high-level delegation trip to Washington DC to discuss plans for the expansion of IDF operations into Rafah, highlighting increasingly tense diplomatic relations with the US. Even so, a critical breakdown in US-Israel relations remains unlikely; on 27 March, Netanyahu requested that the US re-schedule the visit.
- The legal framework relating to the conscription of ultra-Orthodox men will expire on 31 March, highlighting increasing threats to government stability and the risk of unrest. At the time of writing, the government has not formally submitted a proposal to replace the current framework, which provides broad exemptions from military service for ultra-Orthodox men engaged in full-time religious study. On 28 March, the Attorney General confirmed that if the government does not submit a proposal to replace the current legal framework before it expires, it will have to begin conscripting impacted individuals on 1 April and suspend payments of deferment-related stipends to Yeshivas. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu previously proposed a controversial draft law, which he withdrew following significant opposition from key coalition partners (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 25 March 2024). Intensifying disputes over reforms to ultra-Orthodox conscription practices underscore threats to government stability given increasing tensions between pro- and anti-conscription coalition members. Similarly, risks of pro- and anti-conscription demonstrations remain significantly elevated, particularly in Bnei Brak, Jerusalem and Tel Aviv.
- Protests targeting the Israeli embassy in Jordan’s capital Amman have continued for a fourth consecutive day, underscoring persistent risks of unrest and radicalisation amid rising regional tensions. On 27 March, the Jordanian police redeployed anti-riot forces in the Rabae district as approximately 2,000 pro-Palestine protesters demonstrated outside the Israeli embassy. Attempts to breach the embassy compound late on 27 March resulted in approximately 200 arrests; large-scale protests continue at the time of writing. The sustained demonstrations highlight increasing unrest targeting locations associated with the Israeli government, elevating collateral risks to proximate assets and the likelihood of localised transport disruption. On 27 March, numerous demonstrators also chanted pro-Hamas slogans, underscoring elevated risks of radicalisation and proliferating militant support amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza and increasing anti-Israel sentiment across the region.
- Israel’s National Security Council (NSC) issued numerous travel warnings for Israelis, highlighting elevated risks of violence targeting individuals associated with Israel amid increasing ethno-religious tensions. On 28 March, the NSC issued travel warnings advising Israeli nationals to avoid travelling to Egypt, Jordan, Morocco and Turkey in the coming weeks. The NSC has also advised Israelis attending the upcoming Eurovision Song Contest in Stockholm (Sweden) to ‘not display their Zionism’ in public by avoiding wearing national symbols or loudly speaking Hebrew in public. While the NSC did not detail any imminent or specific threats to Israelis in these locations, the announcements underscore substantially elevated risks of harassment and violence targeting individuals associated with Israel in numerous locations worldwide.
*Israel-Palestinian Territories: Unrest, attack risks will increase across Israel, West Bank on Land Day. On 30 March, Arabs and Palestinians in Israel and the West Bank will commemorate Land Day, which marks the Arab struggle against the Israeli government’s land policies. Strikes, protests and marches are likely within Arab towns and cities across Israel, elevating localised travel disruption risks, particularly during the main protest in Deir Hanna (Northern district). Protest events within Israel are likely to be largely peaceful, though the risk of violent protests will be considerably elevated within the West Bank and Jerusalem area. Currently elevated ethno-religious tensions will increase the risk of radicalised individuals feeling motivated to co-ordinate attacks around the anniversary. Consequently, there is an increased risk of sole-perpetrator and militant attacks across Israel, particularly in the West Bank and Jerusalem area. We assess that security and bystander risks (particularly along roads, at transport hubs, in settlements and near Israeli security force positions) will remain elevated in the coming days.
Mar 27.
- Israel-Lebanon: Uptick in hostilities will likely continue, elevating bystander security risks. Overnight on 26-27 March, an Israeli airstrike against an emergency medical compound in Hebbariye (Nabatieh governorate) killed seven people associated with the militant group Lebanese al-Jama’a al-Islamiyya. Lebanese Hizballah (LH) has promised to retaliate. The strike comes amid an uptick in hostilities between Israel and LH in the past 48 hours. On 26 March, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted its deepest airstrike into Lebanon since 7 October 2023. The strike hit an area near Hermel (Baalbeck-Hermel governorate). It comes amid an increasing number of long-range strikes. Retaliation by LH in the coming days will elevate security and bystander risks across northern Israel, particularly near the Israel-Lebanon border and in the vicinity of IDF bases. The gradual escalation of hostilities between the two parties is likely to continue in the coming days, elevating security risks across Lebanon, particularly southern Lebanon. However, we assess that both parties are likely seeking to pursue a gradual controlled escalation; they are also likely keen to avoid a major escalation involving ground incursions.
Mar 26.
- Jordan: Anti-Israel protests in Amman will likely persist in coming week, elevating bystander risks. On the evening of 25 March, hundreds of pro-Palestine demonstrators gathered in the capital Amman’s al-Rabiah neighbourhood for a second consecutive night. Protesters once again tried to reach the Israeli embassy, but were prevented from doing so by the security forces; no clashes were reported. We assess that further pro-Palestine protests in Amman are likely to take place later on 26 March and during the rest of the week (at least); spikes in protest attendance are likely after Friday prayers and Iftar (29 March). Protests are highly likely to remain concentrated in the al-Rabiah neighbourhood, particularly around al-Kalouti mosque, elevating the likelihood of significant traffic disruption in western Amman during the evenings. Furthermore, as on the first night of protests (24 March), there is a realistic possibility of renewed clashes between the security forces and protesters. The deployment of crowd-dispersal tools such as tear gas will drive bystander risks around this area in the coming days.
Mar 25.
KEY POINTS
- The UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution calling for a ceasefire in Gaza during Ramadan and the release of hostages underlines tensions between Israel and the Biden administration, as well as attempts to prevent the expansion of Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations into Rafah. Israel is likely to claim that the current ceasefire negotiations indicate that it is complying with the resolution.
- Increased attempts by Iranian proxies to facilitate attacks in the West Bank will sustain security risks in the area and drive the likelihood of IDF strikes against targets in Syria and Lebanon.
- Gaza: The IDF operation at the al-Shifa hospital is ongoing; the IDF claims to have arrested several senior militant commanders, including some from Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Additionally, in the past 72 hours, the Palestinian Red Cross claimed that the IDF began surrounding the al-Amal and Nasser hospitals in Khan Yunis. Given the broad success of the IDF operation at al-Shifa, there is an increasing risk of further IDF operations in other Gazan hospitals and locations previously considered clear of militants.
- Israel-Lebanon: A recent exchange of fire underlines the expansion of the range of IDF strikes into Lebanon and the intensification of Lebanese Hizballah (LH)’s response, underlining a persistent gradual escalation. On 24 March, an IDF airstrike killed two Syrian nationals in a vehicle while another struck an LH weapons manufacturing plant; both incidents took place in the Baalbek area (Baalbek-Hermel governorate), north-east of Beirut (Lebanon). LH responded to the first strike by launching over 50 rockets towards IDF positions in Israel’s Golan Heights, claiming it targeted an air defence base Kela Camp and an artillery base at Yoav Camp. No damage or injuries were reported. Such strikes will further elevate security risks in the Beqaa Valley (Baalbek-Hermel) as well as in northern Israel more generally, particularly near IDF or militant positions.
- West Bank-Jordan: Arrests near an Israeli settlement underline the elevated threat of future attacks against such settlements, including in areas close to the Israel-Jordan border. On 22 March, the IDF arrested two armed suspects who were crossing from Jordan near the Israeli settlement Petzael in the Jordan Valley (West Bank). One of the two suspects was holding a Kalashnikov assault rifle with a magazine, raising concerns of an attempted terror attack.
- Red Sea: A Houthi missile strike against a Chinese-owned oil tanker underlines the continued risk of misidentification, sustaining broad exposure to strikes in the Red Sea. On 24 March, a Houthi anti-ship ballistic missile struck a Chinese-owned oil tanker. The Panama-flagged vessel, MV Huang Pu, was targeted by four missiles, causing light damage and no casualties. The incident prompted the vessel to issue a distress call. The attack comes after China and Russia allegedly liaised with the Houthis for immunity from maritime attacks in exchange for political support (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 21 March 2024).
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- The US will not resume United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) funding until at least 2025, sustaining significant humanitarian concerns in Gaza. On 22 March, the US Congress voted not to resume funding the UNRWA until at least 2025. Before suspending funding for the agency in January amid allegations that staff members participated in the 7 October attacks, the US was UNRWA’s largest donor and funded approximately 30% of its budget (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 26 January 2024). Amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions, the US funding stay will likely further undermine UNRWA’s operating capacity in Gaza and impede efforts to address critical food, water and energy insecurity. In the long-term, substantial cuts to UNRWA funding will likely undermine broader efforts to reconstruct Gaza, undermining efforts to improve socio-economic and governance conditions.
- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu proposed a controversial draft law for conscripting ultra-Orthodox individuals, though exemption clauses have triggered backlash from coalition partners, elevating government stability risks. On 24 March, Israeli media outlets released a draft proposal detailing Netanyahu’s proposed changes to the legal framework providing broad exemptions from military service for the ultra-Orthodox, which is due to expire on 31 March. The draft reportedly includes clauses increasing the exemption age from 26 to 35 and would charge individuals who do not enlist in a civil court rather than a criminal court. Opposition leader Benny Gantz stated that the National Unity party would withdraw from the governing coalition if the legislation passes, while New Hope party leader Gideon Saar stated that he had rejected an offer from the Likud party to join the war cabinet as an observer in the event of such a withdrawal. Although reports indicate that Netanyahu has removed clauses increasing the exemption age amid signification labour flexibility concerns, the controversial legislation underscores the increasing threats to the coalition government’s stability. There is a realistic possibility that the National Unity party will withdraw from the government over the coming weeks, increasing risks of anti-government demonstrations and domestic unrest in major population centres. Additionally, the Likud-led governing coalition will likely be unable to replace the National Unity party, elevating risks of policy stasis in the medium-to-long term.
- Increasingly confrontational protest activity in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem is likely to drive transit disruption and moderately elevate bystander risks. On 23 March, thousands of demonstrators gathered in Tel Aviv for the weekly hostage release protest. Protesters temporarily blocked the Ayalon highway and lit bonfires on Begin Street. Fire service efforts to extinguish the blazes triggered clashes between protesters and the police, resulting in ten arrests. In Jerusalem, hundreds of protesters gathered outside Netanyahu’s official residence and blocked adjacent roads, though they dispersed without issue. Protest activity will almost certainly continue until the Israeli government secures hostage releases, sustaining the risks of localised travel disruption. Sporadic clashes with security force personnel will also sustain elevated bystander risks in protest hotspots, particularly in the event of protesters lighting additional bonfires.
- A pro-Palestine protest targeting the Israeli embassy in Amman (Jordan) underscores elevated bystander and collateral risks amid increasing regional protest activity. On the evening of 24 March, hundreds of protesters marched through Amman and attempted to breach the Israeli embassy. The Jordanian security forces deployed riot police, who fired tear gas and forcefully dispersed protesters, resulting in several altercations. These clashes underscore elevated bystander and collateral risks in the vicinity of locations associated with the Israeli government as the Israel-Hamas war continues. Amid elevated regional and ethno-religious tensions, further pro-Palestine protests are highly likely, sustaining risks of clashes with the security forces, particularly in the vicinity of Israeli government assets and/or Jewish religious institutions.
- The UN Security Council (UNSC) passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza, highlighting significant international pressure on Israel to pause IDF operations. On 25 March, the UNSC passed a resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire until the end of Ramadan (9 April), as well as the unconditional release of hostages. The US abstained from the vote, underscoring increasing bilateral tensions with Israel, primarily driven by concerns over the likely expansion of IDF operations into Rafah.
FORECAST
The UNSC ceasefire resolution reflects increasing bilateral tensions between the US and Israel over expanding the IDF operation into Rafah. Although UNSC resolutions are legally binding, Israel will likely cite its continued engagement in ceasefire negotiations with Hamas as evidence that it is seeking to implement a ceasefire agreement as soon as possible. As such, the resolution’s passage is highly unlikely to result in Israel immediately halting operations in Gaza. However, the decision by the US to allow the resolution to pass will challenge the expansion of operations into Rafah, which would be a stark violation of the resolution’s terms. However, there is still a realistic possibility that a breakdown in negotiations would result in an operation in Rafah. Furthermore, the resolution, calling for the release of all the hostages held in Gaza is likely to further add difficulties in reaching a full agreement with Hamas in the immediate term, sustaining the risks of continued armed conflict in Gaza in the coming weeks.
The IDF is likely to increase its attacks in Syria against Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and pro-Iranian militants in the coming weeks. In recent months, the Shin Bet and IDF have repeatedly disrupted the flow of weapons smuggled into the West Bank by the IRGC. According to Israeli news, the weapons originated from Iran and include RPG launchers, cluster munitions, rockets, mines and assault rifles. Together with the recent arrests of two armed individuals entering the West Bank from Jordan (see above), these attempts highlight increasing efforts by Iranian proxies to use the West Bank to launch attacks. This trend has elevated security and attack risks in the West Bank, particularly near Israeli settlements and the Israel-Jordan border. In response, the IDF is increasingly likely to target IRGC and militant positions in Syria. This will increase strike risks across Syria, particularly in areas bordering Lebanon and Iraq, as well as in Deir ez-Zor governorate and near airports, including Damascus International Airport (DAM). Consequently, increased Syrian air defence operations in the area will elevate misidentification risks in Syrian, Lebanese and northern Israeli airspace, as some of these systems cover areas outside Syria.
Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):
- A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
- High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
- Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
- Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
- An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
- US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
- Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
- The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza
*EU-Israel: Major settlement plans in West Bank will elevate EU sanctions risks. On 24 March, the EU condemned Israel’s plan to confiscate 3.08 square miles (8 sq km) in the West Bank’s Jordan Valley to expand the Yafit settlement. The EU described the move as a breach of international humanitarian law and the single largest land confiscation by Israel since the 1993 Oslo Accords. The EU statement will likely elevate the likelihood of European sanctions being imposed on Israeli West Bank entities, assets and individuals in the coming months (reflecting similar US and UK sanctions in recent months). These measures are likely to exacerbate compliance, operational and reputational risks for businesses affiliated with Israeli settlements, including banks. Furthermore, the new settlement plans will highly likely stoke already increasing ethnic and religious tensions across the West Bank. We assess that these will sustain the risk of domestic unrest, radicalisation and armed clashes between the Israeli security forces and Palestinian militants in the West Bank in the coming weeks.
*Yemen-China: Houthi attack against Chinese tanker underscores sustained misidentification risks. On 24 March, the Yemen-based Houthis struck a Chinese-owned oil tanker in the Red Sea with anti-ship ballistic missiles. No casualties were reported; the Panama-flagged ship also sustained minimal damage. Notably, the attack comes days after Chinese and Russian officials reportedly liaised with the Houthis over immunity from maritime attacks in exchange for political support. We assess that the attack was highly likely a result of a misidentification, reflecting the significant difficulties involved with implementing any such agreement in an active maritime combat zone. Elevated misidentification risks are highly likely to continue jeopardising all ships (including Chinese and Russian vessels) traversing the area in the coming weeks, despite the reported agreement. The recent attack will also likely lead to China placing greater pressure on Iran to limit the Houthis’ operations and to agree on an effective identification mechanism for Chinese vessels. (Source: Sibylline)
02 Apr 24. Israeli airstrike on Gaza kills seven working for food aid NGO. Citizens from Australia, Britain and Poland were among seven people working for celebrity chef Jose Andres’ World Central Kitchen who were killed in an Israeli airstrike in central Gaza on Monday, the NGO said.
The workers, who also included Palestinians and a dual citizen of the United States and Canada, were travelling in two armoured cars emblazoned with the WCK logo and another vehicle, WCK said in a statement.
Despite co-ordinating movements with the Israeli Defence Force, the convoy was hit as it was leaving its Deir al-Balah warehouse, after unloading more than 100 tons of humanitarian food aid brought to Gaza by sea, WCK said.
“This is not only an attack against WCK, this is an attack on humanitarian organizations showing up in the most dire of situations where food is being used as a weapon of war,” said Erin Gore, chief executive of World Central Kitchen.
“This is unforgivable.”
The Israeli military said it was doing a thorough review at the highest levels to understand the circumstances of what it called a tragic incident.
“The IDF makes extensive efforts to enable the safe delivery of humanitarian aid, and has been working closely with WCK in their vital efforts to provide food and humanitarian aid to the people of Gaza,” the military said.
Andres, who started WCK in 2010 by sending cooks and food to Haiti after an earthquake, earlier said he was heartbroken and grieving for the families and friends of those who died.
“The Israeli government needs to stop this indiscriminate killing,” he said on social media.
“It needs to stop restricting humanitarian aid, stop killing civilians and aid workers, and stop using food as a weapon. No more innocent lives lost. Peace starts with our shared humanity. It needs to start now.”
In a statement, the Islamist group Hamas said the attack aimed to terrorise workers of international humanitarian agencies, deterring them from their missions.
AUSTRALIA CONFIRMS DEATH
Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese confirmed the death of 44-year-old aid worker Lalzawmi “Zomi” Frankcom and said his government had contacted Israel to demand those responsible be held accountable.
“This is a human tragedy that should never have occurred, that is completely unacceptable and Australia will seek full and proper accountability,” he told a press conference on Tuesday.
Albanese said innocent civilians and humanitarian workers needed to be protected and reiterated his call for a sustainable ceasefire in Gaza along with more aid to help those suffering from “tremendous deprivation”.
Video obtained by Reuters showed paramedics moving bodies into a hospital and displaying the passports of three of those killed.
“We are heartbroken and deeply troubled by the strike that killed @WCKitchen aid workers in Gaza,” U.S. National Security Council spokesperson Adrienne Watson said on social media.
“Humanitarian aid workers must be protected as they deliver aid that is desperately needed, and we urge Israel to swiftly investigate what happened.”
WCK said it was pausing its operations in the region immediately and would make decisions soon about the future of its work.
WCK delivers food relief and prepares meals for people in need. It said last month it had served more than 42 million meals in Gaza over 175 days.
WCK was involved in the first shipment of aid to Gaza via a sea corridor from Cyprus in March. A second WCK maritime aid shipment of 332 tons arrived in Gaza early this week.
Since starting operations in 2010, the organisation has delivered food for communities hit by natural disasters, refugees at the U.S. border, healthcare workers during the COVID-19 pandemic and people in conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza. (Source: Reuters)
29 Mar 24. Israel’s Strike in Aleppo Kills 44: The Highest Single Strike Death Toll Since October 7. On Friday, the Syrian army reported that Israeli airstrikes near the northern city of Aleppo resulted in casualties and damage. A British based war monitor, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, identified the targets as missile depots associated with Hezbollah, located in the southern suburbs of Aleppo and near a significant military facility in the town of Safira. According to the observatory, the death toll included 36 Syrian troops, seven Hezbollah fighters, and one Syrian member of an Iran-backed group, with several more wounded.
Israeli authorities have not yet commented on these specific airstrikes. Israel has conducted numerous strikes within Syria over recent years, targeting areas under government control to prevent Iranian military entrenchment. Although rarely acknowledged, these actions align with Israel’s stated objective to curb Iranian influence in its vicinity.
The conflict has also seen Hezbollah, a Lebanon-based militant group, intensify its military involvement in Syria, aligning with government forces. Aleppo, a city of significant strategic and commercial value, has previously experienced similar attacks, impacting its infrastructure.
Israel also conducted a lethal drone strike in Lebanon, targeting a vehicle near Tyre and resulting in the death of a Hezbollah member identified as Ali Naim, described as a key figure in the group’s rocket and missile program. The incident followed a Hezbollah rocket attack on northern Israel, which the group claimed was a retaliatory act for earlier Israeli airstrikes that killed several individuals, including paramedics. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
28 Mar 24. Navy’s Top Officer Credits Training, Logistics With Meeting Red Sea Mission. Chief of Naval Operations Adm. Lisa Franchetti yesterday said she credits both a recent transformation in the Navy’s surface warfare training regimen and the quality of logistics operations for the service’s ability to successfully counter recent attacks by Iranian-backed Houthi terrorists in the Red Sea.
Navy assets have been operating in the Red Sea since December as part of Operation Prosperity Guardian, a U.S.-led, multinational coalition established to counter attacks by Houthi terrorists on merchant and naval vessels.
” is a great coalition of nations that are really standing up for the rules-based international order as we work to preserve the free flow of commerce through the Red Sea, through the Bab el-Mandeb , and on into the Gulf of Aden,” Franchetti said.
During a discussion on the overall state of the Navy with the Defense One digital media platform in Washington, Franchetti was asked about what lessons the Navy has learned in the months since it first began participating in the coalition.
The first lesson, Franchetti said, relates to a transformation in surface warfare training that began roughly nine years ago. At that time, the Navy brought in highly trained instructors to teach members of the surface warfare community how to bring a tactical edge to the field.
“And now you see nine years later, … we’ve set up reach-back to our warfighting centers to be able to really understand what’s going on in the operating environment, to be able to adjust tactics, techniques procedures,” said Franchetti, who lauded the quality of Navy training across all surface-ship platforms and the entire joint force.
“I think the investments that we made are really paying off,” she said, ” those great lessons that we’re learning about how to innovate while we’re out there in the same battle space.”
Franchetti also highlighted how the evolving quality of the logistics operations being conducted during Operation Prosperity Guardian is contributing to the Navy’s overall operational readiness.
“We had to bring some of our ships out of the Red Sea, originally, to be able to do some of the things they needed to do,” explained Franchetti. “But now we’ve been able to work with allies and partners to be able to do that right on station and really keep everybody in the fight.”
Franchetti pointed out that the Navy is successfully conducting multiple logistics operations on a daily basis in regions beyond the Red Sea.
“I’m really proud of how our forces are set up across all of our different regions to be able to respond and to be able to pull together to provide the resources we need to keep our operations going,” she said. “I think it’s a real testament to the work that’s been done in the past to enable us to do this work now and into the future.”
Houthi militants have attacked or threatened Navy and commercial vessels more than 100 times since late November of last year, according to U.S. Central Command. In response to these attacks, U.S. and coalition forces have conducted 50 self-defense strikes as of March 25.
Beyond current and future naval operations, Franchetti, who was promoted to chief of naval operations last November, also discussed unmanned vehicles, shipbuilding, retention and quality of life.
“I could not be more proud of our Navy team or more focused on building the Navy that our nation needs to do all the missions that count on us to do every single day,” said Franchetti.
“And I’m really looking forward to working … with all of our stakeholders to be able to do that over the next four years that I’m here as CNO.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
26 Mar 24. Israeli Airstrikes Target IRGC Weapon Smuggling Operatives in Eastern Syria. Israeli airstrikes were conducted in eastern Syria, specifically in the regions of Deir Ezzor and al-Bukamal, close to the Iraq border. These operations aimed at Iranian assets and operatives implicated in a plot to smuggle advanced weaponry to terrorists in the West Bank. The Times of Israel sources indicated that the targets included Iran’s Unit 4000, the Special Operations Division of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ Intelligence Organization, and Unit 18840, the special operations unit of the IRGC’s Quds Force in Syria.
The action was a direct response to foiled smuggling attempts by these Iranian units, as announced by the Shin Bet on Monday. The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reported that the airstrikes resulted in over 15 fatalities, predominantly among pro-Iran fighters, including an IRGC official. Among the deceased was Behrouz Vahedi, an officer of the Quds Force, as confirmed by Iran’s state news agency IRNA.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights further detailed that a villa in Deir Ezzor city, described as a communications center and housing IRGC personnel along with technical equipment, was destroyed. Additionally, a separate strike in al-Bukamal claimed the lives of four fighters, with nine of the overall deceased being Iraqi nationals. Contrary to the Syrian state-run SANA broadcaster’s attribution of the strikes to the United States, a US defense official refuted any involvement, clarifying that no airstrikes were conducted by the United States during that time frame.
Israel’s strategy of conducting airstrikes on Iran-linked targets within Syria has been a longstanding one, primarily aiming at countering Tehran’s growing influence in the region since the onset of the Syrian civil war in 2011. These operations have intensified following the October 7 massacre by the Iran-backed Hamas, leading to an escalated military response against Iranian-backed targets and some Syrian military assets within Syria. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
27 Mar 24. Israeli Government land seizures announcement March 2024: FCDO statement. The UK government gave a statement in response to Israel announcing the seizure of further land in the Jordan Valley. A Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) spokesperson said: “The UK strongly condemns the recent Israeli Government announcement to seize 1,977 acres of Palestinian lands in the Jordan Valley. The size of the area designated for seizure is the largest since the Oslo Accords, agreed over 30 years ago. This declaration is in addition to 652 acres of land marked for seizure by Israel on 29 February, meaning 2024 now marks an unacceptable peak in land seizures. The UK calls on the Israeli Government to halt this seizure and all others immediately. Our policy is clear: settlements are illegal under international law and only make it harder to progress to achieving peace and security for Israelis and Palestinians.” (Source: https://www.gov.uk/)
26 Mar 24. Readout of Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III’s Meeting With Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant. Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder provided the following readout: Today, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III welcomed Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant to the Pentagon for his first visit to Washington in his current role. This visit is occurring after nearly six months of close cooperation between the two leaders following Hamas’ October 7 terrorist attack and is a testament to the United States’ unwavering support for Israel’s long-term security. The Secretary and Minister affirmed their shared interest in defeating Hamas.
Secretary Austin and Minister Gallant discussed the importance of prioritizing civilian protection in the event of military operations in Rafah, the dire humanitarian situation across Gaza, and threats to regional security. The Secretary stressed that the United States and Israel have a moral imperative and a shared strategic interest in safeguarding civilians, noting that operations in Rafah should not proceed without a credible and implementable plan that ensures the safety of and humanitarian support for civilians sheltering there.
The Secretary urged the Minister to expand entry points for humanitarian assistance and address distribution challenges inside of Gaza. The Secretary emphasized that the U.S. government’s plan to establish a temporary maritime corridor to provide lifesaving humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza is one part of a sustained international effort to deliver more aid and must be matched by increased delivery of assistance by ground.
The Secretary and the Minister reaffirmed the urgent need to secure the release of all hostages held captive by Hamas in Gaza. Secretary Austin reiterated his support for a diplomatic solution to resolve tensions along the Israel-Lebanon border that will allow Israeli civilians to return to their homes in northern Israel as quickly and safely as possible. The Secretary made clear that the United States remained committed to deterring any regional actors from exploiting or expanding the conflict beyond Gaza. (Source: U.S. DoD)
26 Mar 24. Canada’s ban on Israeli arms sales baffles industry. The association representing Canadian defense firms says it is in the dark about the status of equipment exports to Israel after the House of Commons voted to end military sales to that nation.
The legislative body passed a motion March 18 to halt arms exports to Israel because of ongoing human rights concerns over the nation’s military operations in Gaza.
But government ministers have stated the motion will only temporarily pause exports and that some existing equipment sales are proceeding.
The result is confusion among defense firms that are seeking clarification.
Christyn Cianfarani, president of the Canadian Association of Defence and Security Industries, pointed out that the Canadian government strictly regulates what, where, when and how companies can export controlled goods.
“For companies to be able to comply with changes to those rules, they need to know what the changes are,” Cianfarani wrote in a March 25 email to Defense News. “The government has a responsibility to quickly publish the exact details of any changes to its policy surrounding exports, and that hasn’t happened yet.”
After the motion passed, Defence Minister Bill Blair told reporters that the issuing of export permits for military shipments to Israel has been temporarily put on hold. He did not indicate when that might be lifted.
Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly told journalists that the Canadian government stopped approving permits Jan. 8 because of human rights concerns resulting from Israel’s invasion of Gaza.
But later, on March 20, Reuters reported Joly’s office sent a statement acknowledging that companies with existing military export permits to Israel can continue with their deliveries.
A senior official with the government’s Global Affairs Canada told the Senate’s foreign affairs panel March 20 that it remains unclear how the motion will affect defense exports to Israel. Global Affairs Canada is responsible for overseeing defense export permits.
“These are things that are being refined,” Alexandre Lévêque, assistant deputy minister for Europe, the Arctic, the Middle East and the Maghreb, told lawmakers, noting that the government wants to “limit any exports that go into arms [and] weapons that could be used directly in the conflict” in Gaza.
He did not specifically detail how the government intends to determine whether a specific part or piece of equipment is used in the Israel-Hamas war.
Israel leads a Canadian government ranking of the top 12 non-U.S. destinations that require export permits for military goods and technology. The number of permits issued in 2022 for movement of such goods to Israel was 315, according to the Canadian government. And that year, Canada exported about CA$21 m (U.S. $15 m) worth of defense-related products to Israel.
Israel condemned the motion passed in the House of Commons. “It’s regrettable that the Canadian government is taking a step that undermines Israel’s right to self-defense against Hamas terrorists,” Foreign Minister Israel Katz tweeted.
Project Ploughshares, a Canadian think tank focused on disarmament and international security, issued a statement March 21 that expressed disappointment that the new policy does not apply to export permits already issued and “which Global Affairs Canada has the full authority to revoke.”
It also noted the House of Commons motion failed to address Canada’s transfer of military end-use parts and components to Israel via the United States.
News website The Maple reported Feb. 10 that Canadian government figures show domestic firms sent to Israel CA$28.5 m in military goods during the first two months of the war in Gaza, which began in October. Those exports included engines for drones; electronic systems and aircraft components; and fire control equipment, according to The Maple, which obtained the data using the federal government’s Access to Information Act. (Source: Defense News)
25 Mar 24. Pentagon Spokesman Details U.S., Israel Meeting, Danger From ISIS. Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III will meet with Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant tomorrow at the Pentagon to discuss a range of issues, including the release of the hostages Hamas has taken, Israeli operations to defeat Hamas in Gaza and the need to ensure the safety of the more than 1 m people sheltering in Rafah, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.
Although the meeting with Gallant was previously planned, it has higher interest due to the situation on the ground in Gaza. After Hamas launched the Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel that killed more than 1,200 people, the terrorists took hostages. While some were released and others were liberated, Hamas still holds around 130 hostages, including some Americans, according to Israeli officials.
Austin and Gallant will discuss Israeli operations in Rafah. United Nations officials said more than 1 m displaced people are in the city.
White House officials have said that a ground invasion of Rafah without a credible plan is a mistake, given the large number of displaced people. U.S. officials have been discussing with the Israelis the “ways to go about addressing the threat of Hamas, while also taking into account civilian safety,” Ryder said. “A lot of those are from our own lessons conducting operations in urban environments. I would expect the conversations to cover those kinds of things.”
That Israel has the right to defend itself against Hamas is not at issue, Ryder said. “The secretary still believes fundamentally in Israel’s inherent right to defend themselves and that we will continue to support them in that regard, and that support is ironclad.”
Ryder said the U.S. effort to build a pier to get supplies into Gaza is on track. Army and Navy assets are traveling to the Eastern Mediterranean now. ” is continuing to work through the logistics piece,” Ryder said. “I don’t want to get into specifics, but making progress in terms of the onshore security, as well as making some progress as it relates to the concept of operations in terms of how aid will be loaded and then taken off the — off the pier into Gaza for distribution.”
Ryder also answered questions about the Islamic State attack in Russia during a press gaggle. The Islamic State attack Saturday at the Crocus City Hall in Moscow killed more than 130 people and injured more than 180. Ryder said the attack highlights that ISIS is still a threat. U.S. officials passed intelligence to Russia about an imminent terror threat in early March, he said.
The Islamic State issued a statement taking credit for the Moscow terror attack.
The United States continues to work with allies and partners to stay on top of the terrorist threats around the world. One example is the U.S.-led Defeat ISIS coalition in the Middle East. “What you saw after the counter-ISIS campaign in Iraq and Syria was some of the elements of that group moved to other parts of the world,” Ryder said.
Most notably, the group moved to Afghanistan and formed ISIS-Khorasan and moved to areas in Africa. “It is definitely something that we continue to monitor from a counterterrorism standpoint; counterterrorism is part of the National Defense Strategy,” Ryder said. “It’s something that we just have to keep after and not underestimate their ability to conduct these kinds of attacks.”
Ryder noted that even with relations between the United States and Russia being tense because of President Vladimir Putin’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine, the United States shared intelligence with Moscow about the possibility of a terror attack. “You heard the White House say over the weekend that we had notified Moscow in advance … about a planned terrorist attack in Moscow and had also issued an advisory to Americans to avoid going to any public places,” he said.
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This comes under a “duty to warn” policy that the United States follows, the general said. If the United States learns of an attack like this, there is a “duty to warn, particularly something that could harm civilians,” he said. “Either law enforcement or intelligence services would reach out through the appropriate channels to make sure that information is passed.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
25 Mar 24. Biden, Netanyahu on collision course after Gaza UN vote. Relations between President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu sank to a wartime low on Monday with the U.S. allowing passage of a Gaza ceasefire resolution at the United Nations and drawing a sharp rebuke from the Israeli leader.
Netanyahu abruptly scrapped a visit to Washington this week by a senior delegation to discuss Israel’s threatened offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah after the U.S. abstained in a Security Council vote that demanded an immediate ceasefire between Israel and Hamas and the release of all hostages held by the Palestinian militants.
The suspension of that meeting puts a major new obstacle in the way of efforts by the U.S., concerned about a deepening humanitarian catastrophe in Gaza, to get Netanyahu to consider alternatives to a ground invasion of Rafah, the last relatively safe haven for Palestinian civilians.
The threat of such an offensive has increased tensions between longtime allies the United States and Israel, and raised questions about whether the U.S. might restrict military aid if Netanyahu defies Biden and presses ahead anyway.
“This shows that trust between the Biden administration and Netanyahu may be breaking down,” said Aaron David Miller, a former Middle East negotiator for Republican and Democratic administrations. “If the crisis is not managed carefully, it’s only going to continue to worsen.”
Biden’s decision to abstain at the U.N., coming after months of mostly adhering to longtime U.S. policy of shielding Israel at the world body, appeared to reflect growing U.S. frustration with the Israeli leader.
The president, running for re-election in November, faces pressure not just from America’s allies but from a growing number of fellow Democrats to rein in the Israeli military response to Hamas’ deadly Oct. 7 cross-border rampage that Israel says killed 1,200 people.
Netanyahu confronts domestic challenges of his own, not least his far-right coalition members’ demands for a hard line against the Palestinians. He also must convince hostages’ families he is doing everything for their release while facing frequent protests calling for his resignation.
As Netanyahu’s office announced the cancellation of the visit, he said the failure of the U.S. to veto the resolution was a “clear retreat” from its previous position and would hurt Israel’s war efforts.
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U.S. officials said the Biden administration was perplexed by Israel’s decision and considered it an overreaction, insisting there had been no change in policy.
Washington had mostly avoided the word “ceasefire” earlier in the nearly six-month-old war in the Gaza Strip and had used its veto power at the U.N. to shield Israel as it retaliated against Hamas.
But as famine looms in Gaza and amid growing global pressure for a truce in the war that Palestinian health authorities say has killed some 32,000 Palestinians, the U.S. abstained on a call for a ceasefire for the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, which ends in two weeks.
The challenge now for Biden and Netanyahu is to keep their differences from escalating out of control, analysts say.
Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank in Washington, said there was no reason this should be a “mortal blow” to relations. “So I don’t think the door is closed to anything,” he said.
Signalling that the two governments remain in close communication, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, on a visit separate from the one Netanyahu’s delegation scrubbed earlier, went ahead with high-level meetings in Washington on Monday.
But the U.S. abstention adds to a deepening rift between Biden and Netanyahu, who have known each other for years but have had a testy relationship even in the best of times.
Earlier this month, Biden said in an MSNBC interview that a Rafah invasion would be a “red line,” though he added that the defense of Israel is “critical” and there is no way “I’m going to cut off all weapons so that they don’t have the Iron Dome (missile defense system) to protect them.”
Netanyahu dismissed Biden’s criticism and vowed to press forward in Rafah, the last part of the Gaza Strip where Israeli forces have not carried out a ground offensive, though U.S. officials say there are no signs of an imminent operation.
That was followed last week with U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the country’s highest-ranking Jewish elected official, describing Netanyahu as an obstacle to peace and calling for new elections in Israel to replace him.
Biden called it a “good speech.”
But Republican House Speaker Mike Johnson told reporters on Wednesday he was thinking of inviting Netanyahu, who spoke by videolink to Republican senators last week, to address Congress. That would be seen as a jab at Biden, giving Netanyahu a high-profile forum to air grievances against the U.S. administration.
Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse told Reuters that Netanyahu appeared to be working with Republicans to “weaponize the U.S.-Israel relationship in favor of the right wing.”
Biden’s 2024 re-election bid limits his options: he needs to avoid giving Republicans an issue to seize on with pro-Israel voters, while also halting the erosion of support from progressive Democrats dismayed by his strong backing for Israel.
Netanyahu, aware that polls show him being soundly defeated in any election held now, knows there is wide support for continuing the war in Gaza among an Israeli population still deeply traumatized by the Oct. 7 assault.
So he appears willing to risk testing Washington’s tolerance.
All members of Netanyahu’s emergency unity government support continuing the war until Hamas is destroyed and the hostages are returned, and there has been little sign of willingness to meet U.S. calls for moderation, despite the growing risk of international isolation.
Hard-right Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich said Israel was a partner but the United States was not its “patron state”. (Source: Reuters)
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