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Military And Security Developments
Mar 15.
*Yemen: Houthis are unlikely to conduct successful attacks in Indian Ocean in coming days. On 14 March, the Houthis announced that they would start targeting Israel-linked vessels traversing the Indian Ocean on their way to the Cape of Good Hope. There is a realistic possibility that the group will attempt to use long-range drones to target this route, though such attacks are likely to lack precision. Therefore, we assess that successful attacks are unlikely in the coming days and weeks. In addition, any such attempts would likely prompt the US-led coalition to target the group at an increased rate, scope and intensity, including through pre-emptive strikes. Attacks against vessels in the Indian Ocean would also likely trigger China to pressure Iran to stop backing the group. However, any (unlikely) successful attempts by the Houthis to strike this route would likely elevate the disruption risks facing international trade, significantly increasing shipping insurance costs.
*Yemen: Mobility disruption in parts of Marib will likely persist in next two weeks due to flooding. On 14 March, heavy rainfall in Marib governorate caused severe floods and traffic disruption. In the past week, floods have damaged assets and hundreds of homes, forcing nearly 6,500 families to relocate to 200 temporary camps. Even though the rain has stopped, mobility and transport disruption across the governorate will likely persist in the next two weeks due to extensive road damage, primarily in rural areas. This disruption will also likely impede the effective distribution of humanitarian aid during this period. Furthermore, the floods have damaged telecommunications and electricity infrastructure, which is likely to continue triggering localised business disruption around Marib city in the coming days. We assess that the lack of sewage infrastructure and water drainage systems, together with overcrowded camps across the governorate, will elevate the likelihood of disease outbreaks in the coming month.
Mar 14.
KEY POINTS
- In the past week there was a considerable uptick in militant activity and sole-perpetrator attacks against Israeli security forces and civilians in the West Bank and across Israel. This uptick is likely to continue throughout Ramadan, sustaining high security and bystander risks across Israel.
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) struck several targets north of Beirut; Lebanese Hizballah (LH) launched over 100 rockets in one day, signalling a further escalation in hostilities, which is likely to continue in the coming week.
- Gaza: Continued IDF operations across northern, central and southern Gaza, as well as targeted airstrikes in Rafah against Hamas commanders over the past 72 hours, have underscored the continued pursuit of military objectives. On 13 March, the IDF assassinated Muhammad Abu Hasna in an airstrike near a UNRWA food distribution centre. Abu Hasna was a senior military commander of Hamas who was involved in the seizure of humanitarian aid entering Gaza and its distribution to Hamas operatives. The targeted assassination reflects IDF efforts to pursue objectives in Rafah without elevating international tensions. However, an expansion of IDF ground operations into Rafah remains a realistic possibility in the coming month.
- Israel-West Bank: A significant uptick in violent clashes and attacks since the beginning of Ramadan reflects elevated security and bystander risks across Israel, though particularly in Jerusalem and the West Bank. Since the beginning of the week, there has been an increase in violent clashes between Palestinians and the Israeli security forces, particularly around East Jerusalem. These include several incidents in Shufat camp in which the Israeli police shot and killed Palestinians who targeted them with fireworks. Additionally, in recent weeks, there have been several incidents and attempts to throw Molotov cocktails at drivers on Highway 436, underscoring the elevated incidental risks along major transit routes. On 13 March, a Palestinian minor stabbed two Israeli security personnel in the Tunnel checkpoint on route 60 leading to Jerusalem. On 14 March, a citizen from the Arab-Bedouin town Rahat (southern district), stabbed an Israeli civilian at the petrol station at Beit Kama Junction. The two incidents reflect growing radicalisation within both Palestinian communities, as well as in Arab communities across the West Bank and Israel during Ramadan. These will sustain heightened security risks across all of Israel in the coming weeks, particularly in busy public areas, at transport hubs and near Israeli security facilities.
- West Bank: On 11 March, the Israeli security forces intercepted and killed a Palestinian militant carrying an explosive device; he was reportedly on his way to Tel Aviv. The incident highlights elevated militant efforts to conduct mass casualty attacks during Ramadan, sustaining high security and bystander risks across Israel. Furthermore, the militant was a resident of Jenin governorate, which reflects Jenin’s continued role as a stronghold of militant activity. In the event of a mass casualty attack within Israel, Jenin will likely be a centre of Israeli investigations, significantly increasing its exposure to IDF raids and violent clashes.
- Israel-Lebanon: Escalation risks continue to mount; the IDF has increased the frequency of its longer-range airstrikes into Lebanon and against Lebanese Hizballah (LH), elevating the intensity and frequency of cross-border fire. On 12 March, LH launched over 100 rockets towards northern Israel, with one rocket salvo consisting of 70 rockets. On 12 -13 March, the IDF conducted several airstrikes near Baalbek (Baalbek-Hermana governorate), approximately 62 miles (100km) from the Israel-Lebanon border in Metula. On 13 March, the IDF assassinated a senior Hamas member, Hadi Mustafa, in Tyre (South governorate), killing one bystander in the strike. Mustafa was responsible for promoting attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets across the globe. The uptick in the intensity and frequency of hostilities reflects another new normal in the conflict between Israel and LH and the gradually increasing likelihood of major escalation involving ground forces in the coming three months.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- Efforts to increase aid deliveries into Gaza continue, though attempts to establish distribution networks continue to stall, moderating prospects of improved humanitarian conditions. On 12 March, the World Food Programme announced that the IDF had allowed six aid trucks to enter northern Gaza via a newly constructed military road, facilitating deliveries into the northern and central districts. Also on 12 March, a Spanish-flagged NGO ship carrying 200 tonnes of food aid departed Cyprus for Gaza through a newly operationalised sea corridor, underscoring continued efforts to increase the volume of aid deliveries. However, IDF efforts to engage local clans to distribute aid have reportedly stalled, with clan leaders rejecting proposals to establish distribution networks excluding Hamas. On 14 March, local media outlets released unconfirmed reports that Hamas had killed the leader of the Doghmush clan in Gaza City for allegedly collaborating with the IDF authorities and attempting to distribute aid through non-Hamas channels. This incident highlights significant risks to clan members co-operating with the IDF and will likely undermine efforts to establish durable distribution networks excluding Hamas, sustaining risks of food, water and energy insecurity despite increasing aid deliveries. Similarly, in the longer term, limited engagement from clan leaders on aid distribution will impede the establishment of governance structures within Gaza outside Hamas control.
- Amid increasing international pressure to protect civilians, the IDF announced civilian evacuation plans that will precede the expansion of ground operations into Rafah. On 13 March, IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari announced that before expanding ground operations into Rafah, the IDF will evacuate civilians to newly established humanitarian zones in central Gaza. The announcement likely reflects significant international pressure on Israel to mitigate the critical physical security and bystander risks facing the 1.4 million displaced Palestinian civilians in southern Gaza in the event of ground operations in Rafah. Hagari did not state when the offensive will occur, though there is a realistic possibility of operations beginning in the coming month, increasing the likelihood of staggered evacuation measures over the coming weeks. Large-scale population movements will increase the risk of operational disruption to humanitarian organisations, as well as the transmission of communicable diseases due to a lack of water and sanitation facilities throughout Gaza.
- The IDF confirmed there will be restrictions on Palestinians accessing the al-Aqsa Mosque compound during Friday prayers throughout Ramadan, underscoring the elevated ethno-religious tensions and risk of attacks. On 12 March, the IDF announced that only children under the age of ten, women over the age of 50 and men over the age of 55 from the West Bank will be able to access the compound for Friday prayers during Ramadan (11 March-9 April). The statement did not include clear guidance on accessing the compound on other days. The restrictions underscore the IDF’s significant concerns relating to unrest and/or attacks in and around the compound during Ramadan amid significantly elevated ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank and Jerusalem areas.
- A court case seeking to block Denmark’s sale of military hardware to Israel highlights increasing compliance concerns and risks of supply chain disruption across the defence industry. On 12 March, a coalition of charities, including Amnesty International and Oxfam, announced that it will sue the Danish police and foreign ministry with the aim to prevent the export of F-35 fighter jet parts to Israel. The coalition argues that the parts will possibly be used in operations that violate international humanitarian law, which would in turn violate Denmark’s obligations under the UN Arms Trade Treaty and EU Common Rules for Arms Exports. A similar case in the Netherlands resulted in an appeals court blocking the export of F-35 parts to Israel, though the Dutch government has appealed the decision at the Supreme Court; proceedings are ongoing (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 12 February 2024). These cases underscore the significant risks of supply chain disruption for firms supplying Israel with military hardware, as well as elevated compliance risks for technology and defence firms, particularly as the IDF prepares to expand ground operations into Rafah.
FORECAST
Restrictions on access to the al-Aqsa Mosque compound will likely exacerbate ethno-religious tensions in the West Bank, elevating risks of radicalisation, sole-perpetrator attacks and militant activity during Ramadan. Efforts to enforce restrictions will likely result in delays and crowding around security checkpoints, elevating risks of localised transport disruption in East Jerusalem on Fridays in the coming weeks (15, 22, 29 March and 5 April). Attempts to prevent young men and women from accessing the compound will also drive the likelihood of altercations and unrest, elevating bystander risks. The restrictions will likely exacerbate ethno-religious tensions and radicalisation risks in the West Bank, increasing the likelihood of domestic unrest and violent clashes with security personnel. Elevated ethno-religious tensions will also increase the threat of sole-perpetrator and/or militant attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem area. There is a realistic possibility of attacks, including car rammings, stabbings and shootings, targeting civilians and security personnel, particularly at security checkpoints, border crossings and crowded public spaces, such as transport hubs. There is also a realistic possibility of Palestinian militants attempting to conduct provocative attacks against religious institutions (among other sites) in order to trigger an assertive IDF response, and therefore further radicalisation efforts in the West Bank (and international condemnation of Israel). We assess that these risks will increase throughout the Ramadan period, peaking in the final week of Ramadan (2-9 April) and on al-Aqsa day (5 April).
Triggers and indicators for escalation
- A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
- High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
- Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
- Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
- An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
- US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
- Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
- The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza
*Israel-Lebanon: Uptick in clashes between IDF, Hizballah will likely persist in coming days. Earlier on 12 March, Lebanese Hizballah (LH) launched over 100 rockets towards northern Israel in two salvos; it targeted areas in northern Galilee and the Golan Heights. No injuries or damage were reported. The rocket salvos are the most significant to date and come in response to overnight Israeli airstrikes deep into Lebanon near the Beqaa Valley (Baalbek-Hermel governorate). The notable uptick in hostilities likely reflects a higher threshold in tit-for-tat cross-border clashes, which have increased in frequency over the past month. This new level of intensity will likely persist in the coming days, further increasing the likelihood of more forceful IDF military action in Lebanon. These developments will sustain significant physical security and bystander risks along the Israel-Lebanon border, elevating conflict escalation risks over Ramadan (11 March-9 April). We therefore assess that there is a realistic possibility of IDF ground operations into Lebanon in the coming three months.
*Israel-Palestinian Territories: Al-Aqsa entry restrictions will continue driving ethno-religious tensions. On 12 March, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF)’s military liaison announced restrictions on West Bank Palestinians accessing the al-Aqsa Mosque compound for Friday prayers during Ramadan. Only children under the age of ten, women over the age of 50 and men over the age of 55 will be able to access the compound on these days. Worshipers will need valid permits, subject to security approval. This will likely result in delays for those attempting to access the compound, as well as crowds in the vicinity of checkpoints, disrupting mobility in East Jerusalem. The restrictions, which are unclear in terms of access to the compound during the rest of the week, will likely elevate ethno-religious tensions and radicalisation risks among West Bank Palestinians. This in turn will increase domestic unrest risks and the likelihood of violent clashes with the security forces, as well as attacks by sole perpetrators and militants in the West Bank and Jerusalem area. The restrictions will also increase unrest risks around the compound each night during the Tarawih prayer; we assess that these risks will reach their peak during the last ten days of Ramadan (1-9 April).
*Turkey-Iraq: Possible Turkish summer operation in northern Iraq would elevate risks significantly. On 13 March, local media reported that Turkey is allegedly planning to launch a major operation this summer against the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdistan Region. The operation will allegedly focus on Metina and Gara regions (Dohuk governorate, Iraq) to secure the Iraq Development Road Project, which aims to connect Gulf countries to Turkey through Iraq. We assess there is a realistic possibility that such an operation will take place in the next six months, but that it will be conditional on the approval of both Baghdad and the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Such an operation would likely involve a wide-scale ground incursion into Kurdistan Region, significantly elevating attack and collateral risks for assets along the border; these risks would not be limited to Metina and/or Gara. The operation would highly likely halt any cross-border movement and expose local staff to bystander risks emanating from elevated levels of active conflict.
Mar 11.
KEY POINTS
- The arrests of 13 Israeli-Arabs planning attacks on Israel Defense Forces (IDF) personnel, reflect heightened security and bystander risks across Israel and radicalisation risks in Israeli-Arab society.
- The US announced it will construct a temporary dock in Gaza to facilitate aid deliveries. However, a long construction time and lack of local-domestic authority to facilitate effective aid distribution are likely to sustain the worsening humanitarian environment in Gaza in the coming weeks.
- Gaza: On the night of 9-10 March the IDF attempted to assassinate Marwan Issa, Hamas’ number three in Gaza. By time of writing, it is still unclear whether the assassination, conducted in central Gaza, was successful. Regardless, the attempt, together with the beginning of Ramadan (11 March – 9 April) will further elevate risks of cross-border rocket fire from Gaza into Israel in the coming week.
- Israel: Security forces arrested 13 individuals in Sakhnin (Northern district) on terrorism and weapons smuggling charges, highlighting persistent risks of domestic militant activity. On 10 March, the Shin Bet announced that it had arrested 13 Arab Israelis connected to a terror cell with links to Hamas in both Gaza and the West Bank. The Shin Bet alleges that the individuals attempted to smuggle weapons into Sakhnin for attacks within Israel. The Israeli security and police forces maintain an elevated security posture, particularly in locations associated with terror cell activity, moderating risks of large-scale militant attacks in Israeli population centres. However, continued recruitment and radicalisation efforts from militant groups will sustain risks of lower-capacity attacks (such as shooting and stabbing attacks) targeting civilians and security personnel, particularly sole perpetrator attacks, throughout Israel.
- West Bank: The development of increasingly complex attack strategies against IDF personnel reflects mounting attack threats throughout the West Bank and Jerusalem, particularly over the Ramadan period. On 8 March, militants shot at the Homesh Outpost then withdrew to Silat ad-Dhahr (Jenin governorate) where they attacked the pursuing force with an improvised explosive device (IED) injuring seven soldiers. The complex attack indicates active targeting and planned multi-stage operations. It reflects the will of Palestinian militants to escalate tensions and violence during Ramadan, which will increase security and bystander risks in the West Bank and Jerusalem.
- Israel-Lebanon: Cross-border clashes continued to escalate, with Hizballah’s targeting of Meron (Northern district) underscoring increasing risks to civilians. Since 7 March, the frequency and intensity of cross-border clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah have continued to increase, sustaining significant physical security and bystander risks on the Israel-Lebanon border. On 9 March, an IDF airstrike in Kherbet Selm (Nabatieh governorate, Lebanon) killed three Hizballah members and two civilians. Subsequently, on 10 March, Hizballah fired two rocket barrages at Meron (Northern district) and stated that it targeted the civilian population centre directly in response to the civilian casualties in Kherbet Selm. The Iron Dome intercepted several missiles, while others fell into open space and did not result in significant material damage or injuries. As Hizballah generally claims to only target IDF positions, this claim underscores a possible shift to more frequent direct targeting of civilian population centres in the Northern district as cross-border tensions continue to escalate. There was also a moderate uptick in rocket attacks targeting locations in the Golan Heights area, underscoring significant physical security and bystander risks, particularly in northeastern Israel.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- Low-intensity clashes around the Al Aqsa Mosque compound on the first night of Ramadan highlight elevated risks of unrest amid an elevated Israeli security posture. On 11 March, Israeli security personnel moderately restricted civilian access to the compound, resulting in low-intensity physical altercations with several individuals. While these altercations did not trigger broader violent clashes, low-intensity clashes underscore moderate risks of unrest in East Jerusalem during the Ramadan period (11 March – 9 April). This risk will remain elevated particularly as Israeli security personnel maintain an elevated security posture throughout Jerusalem and restrict access to religious sites.
- On 7 March, US President Joe Biden announced the construction of a temporary dock in Gaza to facilitate aid delivery, underscoring increasing efforts to address deteriorating humanitarian conditions. The announcement underscores efforts to reduce bottlenecks currently restricting aid delivery via land routes. The dock will facilitate aid delivery through a sea corridor from Cyprus, where Israeli security forces will screen aid before its departure. President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, subsequently stated that the European Union hopes to operationalise the sea corridor for limited aid deliveries over the coming week. However, as the temporary dock will likely take at least seven weeks to construct, substantial increases to the volume of aid delivered into Gaza remain unlikely in the short term. Additionally, given the significant operational risks facing NGOs operating in Gaza, the lack of effective distribution networks will increase the risks of armed groups, such as Hamas, requisitioning aid deliveries and preventing distribution to civilians.
- Canada and Sweden announced the resumption of funding for the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA), though funding shortfalls continue. In late January, donors responsible for approximately 70% of UNRWA’s budget suspended funding for the agency after the UN began an inquiry into staff involvement in the 7 October attacks (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 29 January 2024). Though the resumption of funding will likely reduce short-term funding shortages, as Canada and Sweden’s donations typically account for approximately 7% of UNWRA’s annual budget, this is unlikely to resolve broader operational funding concerns. As UNWRA operates without financial reserves unless major donors resume funding for the agency, there is a realistic possibility that UNWRA will begin scaling back operations over the coming weeks, exacerbating humanitarian concerns in Gaza.
- US Treasury Department officials have warned Lebanon to strengthen anti-money laundering and terrorist financing practices, underscoring elevated sanctions risks. On 8 and 9 March, US Treasury Department officials met with representatives from the Lebanese government and banking sector to discuss concerns that funding for Hamas, Hizballah and other listed terror organisations is being funnelled through Lebanon’s financial system. These meetings reflect continued US efforts to isolate Hamas and Hizballah from their funding networks, particularly in connection to Iran, and underscore significant sanction exposure risks for firms operating in Lebanon, particularly in the finance and currency exchange industries. Over the coming weeks, there is a realistic possibility that the US will expand sanctions on Lebanese individuals and firms associated with Hamas and Hizballah financing, elevating compliance concerns.
*Iraq: New clearing operations against IS will elevate security risks in al-Anbar, Diyala governorates. On 10 March, the Iraqi Joint Operation Command announced that it killed ten Islamic State (IS) members in separate strikes in Wadi Tharthar (between Saladin and al-Anbar governorates). The strikes were part of an ongoing security operation across multiple governorates. This operation also involved raids in Abu Saida town (Diayala governorate), during which the security forces confiscated a large weapons cache. We assess that clearing operations across the western desert areas of al-Anbar (extending to the border with Syria) will likely continue over Ramadan (11 March-9 April). These operations will elevate significant security risks for assets and personnel in these areas due to airstrikes and/or direct armed clashes. Additionally, the authorities are likely to build new checkpoints along highways connecting towns in al-Anbar, Diayala and Saladin, while arbitrary stop-search operations will elevate mobility disruption in the coming days. We assess there is a realistic possibility of similar security-related disruption near the al-Qa’im (al-Anbar) border crossing with Syria in the coming days.
*Libya: Preliminary agreement on unified government is unlikely to result in elections in 2024. On 10 March, representatives from Libya’s two rival political power bases agreed on the need to form a unified government that would supervise the delayed elections. The announcement comes after discussions in Cairo (Egypt), where both sides agreed to form a technical/legislative committee to resolve the political gridlock. General elections in Libya have been delayed since 2021 amid disputes over the candidates’ eligibility, leaving the country with two governments in Tobruk and Tripoli. There is a realistic possibility that the announcement will form the basis of further discussions in the coming weeks. However, progress will likely be impeded by discussions over a unified military, the role of militias and the political future of Libyan National Army (LNA) commander Khalifa Hafter; elections will therefore likely be delayed until 2025. This will sustain policy stagnation and governance challenges, driving unrest and labour flexibility risks; we assess that this will in turn exacerbate energy insecurity and militia violence. (Source: Sibylline)
15 Mar 24. Hezbollah tells Iran it would fight alone in any war with Israel.
- Summary
- Quds Force, Hezbollah chiefs met in February: sources
- Risk of Israel-Hezbollah war discussed: sources
- Iran advises militia allies to avoid wider conflict: sources
- If Iran drawn into war, its nuclear assets at risk: sources
- Israel determined to address the Hezbollah threat: diplomats
With ally Hamas under attack in Gaza, the head of Iran’s Quds Force visited Beirut in February to discuss the risk posed if Israel next aims at Lebanon’s Hezbollah, an offensive that could severely hurt Tehran’s main regional partner, seven sources said.
In Beirut, Quds chief Esmail Qaani met Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah, the sources said, for at least the third time since Hamas’ deadly Oct. 7 attacks on southern Israel and Israel’s devastating retaliatory assault on Gaza.
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The conversation turned to the possibility of a full Israeli offensive to its north, in Lebanon, the sources said. As well as damaging the Shi’ite Islamist group, such an escalation could pressure Iran to react more forcefully than it has so far since Oct. 7, three of the sources, Iranians within the inner circle of power, said.
Over the past five months, Hezbollah, a sworn enemy of Israel, has shown support for Hamas in the form of limited volleys of rockets fired across Israel’s northern border.
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At the previously unreported meeting, Nasrallah reassured Qaani he didn’t want Iran to get sucked into a war with Israel or the United States and that Hezbollah would fight on its own, all the sources said.
“This is our fight,” Nasrallah told Qaani, said one Iranian source with knowledge of the discussions.
Calibrated to avoid a major escalation, the skirmishes in Lebanon have nonetheless pushed tens of thousands of people from their homes either side of the border. Israeli strikes have killed more than 200 Hezbollah fighters and some 50 civilians in Lebanon, while attacks from Lebanon into Israel have killed a dozen Israeli soldiers and six civilians.
In recent days, Israel’s counter-strikes have increased in intensity and reach, fuelling fears the violence could spin out of control even if negotiators achieve a temporary truce in Gaza.
Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant indicated in February that Israel planned to increase attacks to decisively remove Hezbollah fighters from the border in the event of a Gaza ceasefire, although he left the door open for diplomacy. (Source: Reuters)
16 Mar 24. Israel approves plan to attack Rafah but keeps truce hopes alive.
- Summary
- LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
- US wants to see Rafah plan; cautiously optimistic about ceasefire-for-hostages deal
- Gaza emergency service says Israeli strike destroys seven-floor residential building, killing or wounding several people
- Hamas says Netanyahu not interested in reaching an agreement
- Israeli minister says still wide gaps in positions.
Israel on Friday approved a potential assault on the Gaza city of Rafah while also keeping ceasefire hopes alive with plans to send another delegation to Qatar for talks on a possible hostage deal with Islamist militant group Hamas.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office said he had ok’d a plan to attack the city on the southern edge of the shattered Palestinian enclave where more than half of its 2.3 million residents are sheltering after five months of war.
Global allies and critics have urged Netanyahu to hold off attacking Rafah, fearing mass civilian casualties. But Israel says it is one of the last strongholds of Hamas whom it has pledged to eliminate and that residents will be evacuated.
In Washington, White House national security spokesperson John Kirby said the U.S. had not seen the Rafah plan, but would like to. He told a regular briefing a Hamas ceasefire-for-hostages proposal was within the bounds of what was possible and expressed cautious optimism about it.
Hamas has presented a Gaza ceasefire proposal to mediators and the U.S., which includes release of Israeli hostages in exchange for freedom for Palestinian prisoners, 100 of whom are serving life sentences, according to a proposal seen by Reuters.
A statement from Netanyahu’s office on the Rafah attack plan said Hamas’ demands for the release of hostages remained unrealistic, but an Israeli delegation would still head to Doha once the security cabinet had discussed its position.
The Israeli statement said the Israeli Defence Force was “preparing operationally and for the evacuation of the population” of Rafah.
It gave no time frame and there was no immediate evidence of extra preparations on the ground.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told reporters in Austria the U.S. needed to see a clear and implementable plan from Israel for Rafah, including to get civilians out of harm’s way.
Negotiators failed this week to reach a ceasefire agreement in time for the Ramadan Muslim holy month. Washington and Arab mediators are still determined to reach a deal to head off an assault on Rafah and let in food to stave off starvation.
Senior Hamas official Sami Abu Zuhri accused Netanyahu of “manoeuvring … to conduct more crimes of genocide.”
“He isn’t interested in reaching an agreement,” he told Reuters.
Israel has rejected claims of genocide, saying it is purely focused on destroying all Hamas fighters.
There is increasing friction between Washington and Israel, which officials in President Joe Biden’s administration say is waging war with too little care for civilians.
U.S. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish elected U.S. official and a leader of Biden’s Democratic Party, called on Thursday for Israelis to replace Netanyahu, whose hardline policies he said were wrecking Israel’s international standing.
Biden said on Friday Schumer had made “a good speech” and that many Americans shared those concerns.
In the centre of Gaza City late on Friday, an Israeli air strike destroyed a seven-floor residential building, killing or wounding several people, the spokesman of the civil emergency service there said. He said emergency workers were searching the rubble for casualties.
HAMAS OFFER
More than two weeks after receiving an Israeli-approved proposal for a truce, Hamas gave mediators on Thursday its first formal counter-proposal in more than a month.
Like previous proposals from both sides, the offer, reviewed by Reuters on Friday, foresees dozens of Israeli hostages being freed in return for hundreds of Palestinians held in Israeli jails, during a weeks-long ceasefire that would let in aid.
Hamas also called for talks in a later stage on ending the war, but Israel has said it is only willing to negotiate a temporary truce.
Though Israel did not accept, its description of the terms as “still unrealistic” was notably milder than its response to the previous Hamas offer last month, which Netanyahu called “delusional”.
Israeli security cabinet member and National Unity minister Chili Tropper said there were still wide gaps in Israeli and Hamas positions.
“We have to be honest with the public, if we reach a deal that will return our boys and girls home, it will come at a cost, and a heavy one,” he told N12 News.
“It won’t be at any cost, but we also shouldn’t mislead. To bring back these people, who we failed to protect on Oct. 7, we will have to pay a price. What will that cost be? I’ll leave that to closed doors.”
The war began with an attack by Hamas Islamist fighters from Gaza who killed 1,200 people and seized 253 hostages in Israel on Oct. 7, according to Israeli tallies. Since then, an Israeli assault has killed more than 31,000 people, according to Palestinian figures, and driven nearly the entire population of Gaza from their homes.
FIRST AID SHIP
The United Nations says a quarter of Gazans are on the verge of famine and on Friday, the first ship bringing aid by sea, the Open Arms, arrived off Gaza.
Israel said 130 pallets of humanitarian equipment and 115 tonnes of food and water were offloaded to World Central Kitchen (WCK) charity’s trucks for distribution after security checks.
If the new sea route is successful, it may help to ease hunger in Gaza, where hundreds of thousands of people face malnourishment and hospitals in the worst-stricken northern areas have reported children dying of starvation.
However, aid agencies have repeatedly said that plans to bring in aid by air and sea would be far from sufficient as long as most access by land is restricted.
Israel, which has sealed off all land routes into Gaza apart from two crossings on the territory’s southern edge, denies blame for hunger and says aid agencies should do a better job.
Distribution of the limited aid that arrives has been chaotic and frequently violent.
In one of the worst reported incidents yet, Gaza health authorities said at least 21 people had been killed and 150 wounded at a queue for aid near Gaza City on Thursday night and blamed Israeli forces for shooting into the crowd.
Israel denied its troops were to blame and said Hamas fighters had opened fire. Reuters was not able to independently confirm either account.
(Source: Reuters)
15 Mar 24. Hamas issues ceasefire proposal detailing exchange of hostages, prisoners.
Hamas has presented a Gaza ceasefire proposal to mediators and the U.S. which includes the release of Israeli hostages in exchange for freedom for Palestinian prisoners, 100 of whom are serving life sentences, according to a proposal seen by Reuters.
Hamas said the initial release of Israelis would include women, children, elderly, and ill hostages in exchange for the release of 700-1000 Palestinian prisoners, according to the proposal. The release of Israeli “female recruits” is included.
The office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the new Hamas position was based on “unrealistic demands.”
Egypt and Qatar have been trying to narrow differences between Israel and Hamas over what a ceasefire should look like as a deepening humanitarian crisis has one quarter of the population in the battered Gaza Strip facing famine.
In February, Hamas received a draft proposal from Gaza truce talks in Paris which included a 40-day pause in all military operations and the exchange of Palestinian prisoners for Israeli hostages at a ratio of 10 to one – a similar ratio to the new ceasedfire proposal.
Israel also rejected that draft proposal, citing its long-held goal of not ending the war until it destroyed Hamas. Hamas insists an agreement should end the war.
According to the latest proposal, Hamas said it would agree on a date for a permanent ceasefire after the initial exchange of hostages and prisoners, and that a deadline for an Israeli withdrawal from Gaza would be agreed upon after the first stage.
The group said all detainees from both sides would be released in a second stage of the plan.
Late on Thursday, Hamas said it presented to mediators a comprehensive vision of a truce based on stopping what it calls Israeli aggression against Palestinians in the Gaza Strip, providing relief and aid, the return of displaced Gazans to their homes, and the withdrawal of Israeli forces.
With the war now in its sixth month, the U.N. has warned that at least 576,000 people in Gaza are on the brink of famine and global pressure has been growing on Israel to allow more access for aid.
The war was triggered by a Hamas-led attack on southern Israeli towns on Oct. 7 that left 1,200 people killed and 253 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, Israel’s air, sea and ground assault on Gaza has killed more than 31,000 people and wounded over 71,500, according to Gaza health authorities. (Source: Reuters)
12 Mar 24. U.S. Ships Leave Virginia for Gaza, More Equipment to Flow to Ukraine. U.S. Army ships are moving to the Eastern Mediterranean to build a pier to supply civilians in Gaza with essential supplies, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.
The ships will establish a roll-on, roll-off capability that will allow ship-to-shore humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza. “We expect the pier to be fully operational in approximately 60 days which will be able to facilitate the delivery of about 2 m meals per day,” Ryder said.
The seaborne delivery will complement other means of getting essential supplies to Gazans. The United States is air-dropping food and supplies to Gaza and the U.S. Agency for International Development is working to get land routes open to those who need the supplies.
Ryder noted that U.S. Central Command and the Royal Jordanian air force conducted another combined air drop into northern Gaza today. Air Force C-130s dropped more than 5,280 pounds of food including rice, flour, pasta and canned food.
This was the eighth U.S. air drop to Gaza. “C-130s and their aircrews have dropped over 204,000 meals, 48,000 bottles of water and more than 5000 pounds of food items,” Ryder said.
In a separate announcement, Ryder said the United States will send another package of aid of $300m to Ukraine. This one-time aid through the president drawdown authority will support Ukraine’s immediate air defense and anti-tank requirements.
“To be clear, we were able to provide this PDA due to negotiated savings on contracts to replace equipment from previous drawdowns for Ukraine,” Ryder said. “As a result of these cost savings, we were able to authorize a new PDA package for Ukraine today without additional significant impacts to U.S. military readiness.”
Ryder said the aid does not begin to meet Ukraine’s needs as Russian forces continue their attacks on the country. “We urgently need Congress to pass DOD supplemental requests,” he said. “Today’s PDA package, while providing urgent capabilities to Ukraine’s forces, is nowhere near enough. And the only way to meet Ukraine’s battlefield needs is for Congress to swiftly pass the supplemental.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
12 Mar 24. Specialized Army Unit Underway to Support Humanitarian Aid Delivery to Gaza. The specialized Army unit tasked with establishing a temporary pier off the coast of Gaza to deliver critical humanitarian assistance has wasted no time in making the complex operation a reality.
The first of several watercraft used to construct the pier and manned by troops from the 7th Transportation Brigade began the weekslong transit from the unit’s homeport in Virginia to the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility less than two days after President Joe Biden called on the military to conduct the emergency operation during his State of the Union Address.
Today, four more Army vessels set sail from Joint Base Langley-Eustis to join the operation: USAVs Monterrey, Matamoros, SP4 James A. Loux and Wilson Wharf.
The brigade, a component of the XVIII Airborne Corps, is the Army’s premier watercraft unit specializing in Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore, or JLOTS.
JLOTS systems can jointly employ Army and Navy logistics assets to deliver critical supplies to troops or civilians in austere environments anywhere in the world.
“This is Army watercraft’s moment, and we’re up for it,” said Army Col. Samuel S. Miller, the 7th Transportation Brigade (Expeditionary) commander.
“The U.S. and the world will see our humanitarian capability on display and in action forward,” he said. “The 7th TB(X) is highly trained, mobile, versatile and capable to operate in these types of environments.”
Delivering the capability involves the complex choreography of logistics support and landing craft vessels that carry the equipment used to construct an approximately 1,800-foot causeway comprised of modular sections linked together known as a Trident Pier.
Once in theater, the unit will begin construction of the causeway off the coast of Gaza enabling the flow of critical aid from the sea to civilians affected by the ongoing conflict. The capability is expected to be operational in approximately 60 days.
Deploying on short notice anywhere throughout the globe is par for course for the units that comprise the XVIII Airborne Corps, said Army Brig. Gen. John B. Hinson, the corps’ assistant commanding general for support.
“We are the contingency corps for the Army,” Hinson said. “We have units, divisions, brigade combat teams, separate brigades, that can deploy anywhere in the world for any type of contingency operation in 18 hours.
“The 7th TB(X) is one of these units that falls in that category where all of their units are very deployable for an immediate response force for different types of contingencies all around the world,” he said.
Once operational, the pier will be capable of delivering up to 2,000,000 humanitarian aid meals per day.
Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder previewed the capability Friday during a briefing at the Pentagon following Biden’s State of the Union Address.
“This is part of a full-court press by the United States to not only focus on working on opening up and expanding routes via land, which are the optimal way to get aid into Gaza but also by conducting air drops,” Ryder said.
The U.S. has conducted several humanitarian assistance airdrops into Gaza alongside the Royal Jordanian Air Force. The combined operations have delivered hundreds of thousands of badly needed meals to civilians.
Biden said more aid is needed.
Ryder stressed that the JLOTS capability enables the U.S. to continue delivering aid without putting boots on the ground in Gaza.
“We’ll be working with partners in the region to be on the receiving end of, but at no time will we require U.S. forces to actually go on the ground,” he said. “Our role will be essentially to provide the service of getting to the causeway, at which point it will then be distributed.”
Miller said the unit’s extensive training in environments throughout the world has prepared its soldiers to accomplish the mission in Gaza.
JLOTS was last used operationally to deliver humanitarian assistance following the magnitude 7.0 earthquake that struck Haiti in 2010.
Soldiers from the 7th TB(X) train extensively in deploying the capability around the globe, including off the coast of Australia last summer in support of Exercise Talisman Sabre, a large-scale joint defense exercise between Australia and the United States.
“We understand the importance of this mission, and the interests of the world in this regard,” Miller said. “When it may seem, at times, we have the weight of the world on our shoulders, we will forge across the water to deliver humanitarian assistance.”
That same determination was echoed throughout the ranks.
“We like what we do,” said Army Chief Warrant Officer 3 Benjamin Tate, the chief engineer on one of the vessels that set sail for Gaza today.
“We’re extremely proud that we get to participate in humanitarian relief,” Tate said. “Me personally, if my family was in that situation, I’d want somebody to be willing to help. So, when we were told that was the task, our guys are ramping the boat up and getting ready.” (Source: U.S. DoD)
13 Mar 24. Israeli Drone Strike in Southern Lebanon Targets Hamas Military Wing Member. An Israeli drone strike targeted a vehicle in southern Lebanon, near the coastal city of Tyre, resulting in the deaths of a member of the Palestinian militant group Hamas and a civilian. The Israeli military confirmed the operation, stating that the strike was aimed at Hadi Mustafa, identified by Hamas as part of its military wing, the Qassam Brigades. Mustafa was reportedly involved in planning attacks against Israeli and Jewish targets globally.
Lebanese state media reported that Mustafa hailed from the Rashidieh refugee camp close to Tyre, an area where Hamas maintains a significant presence. Alongside Mustafa, a Syrian citizen who happened to be near the targeted vehicle on a motorcycle was also killed in the strike. The incident further resulted in two other individuals sustaining injuries.
This drone strike follows closely on the heels of other Israeli military actions in Lebanon, including airstrikes that targeted Hezbollah positions within the country. These earlier strikes were themselves a response to Hezbollah firing over 100 Katyusha rockets at Israeli military sites, escalating the conflict between Israel and the Lebanon-based militant organizations.
The Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) have released footage of the drone strike and have issued a statement asserting their commitment to targeting Hamas operatives responsible for orchestrating terror activities. Despite the IDF’s claims regarding Mustafa’s role within Hamas, some sources within the militant group have downplayed his significance within the organization. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
11 Mar 24. U.S. and Allied Forces Counter 28 Houthi Drones in Largest Recent Assault in the Red Sea. U.S. forces and their allies intercepted and destroyed at least 28 drones fired by the Iran-backed Houthi militants from Yemen. The drone assault occurred early Saturday in the Red Sea, targeting both commercial and naval vessels over approximately four hours. According to the U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), the operation ensured that no damage was inflicted on commercial or naval assets in the area.
The United Kingdom played a crucial role in the defense operation, with Defense Secretary Grant Shapps sharing footage of the British warship HMS Richmond engaging and neutralizing two Houthi drones. Shapps emphasized the commitment of the UK and its allies to protecting freedom of navigation and saving lives in the face of such threats.
Background
The Houthi militants’ aggressive posture in the Red Sea has been marked by a series of attacks on shipping since November, expressing solidarity with Hamas in its conflict with Israel. These attacks have posed significant risks to international shipping lanes, disrupting trade and communication, as highlighted by the recent sinking of a British-owned ship hit by a Houthi missile in February.
In response to these provocations, the U.S. and UK, supported by coalition forces, have conducted airstrikes on military targets within Yemen, aiming to curb the Houthi offensive capabilities. Additionally, the Biden administration has designated the Houthis as a “specially designated global terrorist group,” underscoring the group’s contribution to regional instability and maritime insecurity. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
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