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Military And Security Developments
Mar. 07.
KEY POINTS
*US-Palestinian Territories: Temporary US port will partially mitigate critical humanitarian conditions. On 7 March, US President Joe Biden announced that the US military would establish a temporary pier off the coast of Gaza to facilitate humanitarian aid delivery. According to officials, the US will form an international coalition to support the project and will not deploy US military personnel to Gaza. While Hamas is highly unlikely to attack vessels delivering aid, there is a realistic possibility of armed attempts to take control of aid after delivery. As such, physical security and bystander risks will be high in the port’s vicinity, particularly for humanitarian staff. While the pier’s construction will likely moderately address deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Gaza, such security risks and logistical difficulties are highly likely to complicate aid distribution efforts. In the absence of local governing bodies and increasing instances of looting targeting aid convoys, risks to humanitarian staff and operations will remain elevated, regardless of increases in aid deliveries.
- The uptick in hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border continues to underscore the increasing risk of a major escalation involving ground operations in the coming three months.
- The Iranian-backed Houthis killed three crew members in a deadly attack against a commercial vessel transiting the Gulf of Aden, increasing the likelihood of US retaliation and driving conflict escalation in the Red Sea.
- Gaza: Israel Defense Forces (IDF) clearing operations across the Gaza Strip continue on trend; they are primarily taking place in southern Gaza.
- West Bank: IDF operations in the West Bank continue on trend, though the rate of radicalisation among Palestinians continues to rise ahead of Ramadan (11 March-9 April). On 6 March, a 14-year-old Palestinian stabbed an Israeli civilian in Neve Yaakov neighbourhood (East Jerusalem). Elevated tensions in the West Bank fuelled by Palestinian militant organisations and (likely) restricted access to the al-Aqsa Mosque will likely continue to rise throughout Ramadan. Such tensions will increase the likelihood of attacks, while also driving the risk of domestic unrest and violent clashes between Palestinians and the Israeli security forces and settlers. In the coming weeks, security and bystander risks will be particularly elevated around the West Bank and Jerusalem, especially near places of worship, transport hubs and IDF positions.
- Israel-Lebanon: The uptick in IDF-Lebanese Hizballah (LH) hostilities continues, with the IDF neutralising more LH commanders and LH launching larger rocket barrages towards the Israel-Lebanon border. LH has also increasingly targeted key IDF bases, such as the Northern Command base in Safed, the Mount Meron Air Traffic Control base and the 91st Division base in Biranit. These reflect the continued gradual escalation along the Israel-Lebanon border, as well as the increasing risks of a major escalation breaking out in the coming three months (see Forecast).
- Yemen: On 6 March, the Iranian-backed Houthis killed three crew members in a missile strike against the M/V True Confidence (a Barbados-flagged and Liberian-owned bulk carrier) as it transited the Gulf of Aden. The strike caused substantial damage to the vessel and injured at least four other crew members, three of whom are in a critical condition. These are the first recorded casualties to have resulted from Houthi attacks against commercial ships since the beginning of the Houthis’ campaign. The incident underscores the persistently elevated security and bystander risks in and around Yemeni waters, as well as the gradual escalation of conflict in the area.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- Hamas announced that its delegation left Egypt due to a lack of progress in negotiations. Progress reportedly faltered over negotiations on Israel committing to a phased withdrawal from Gaza, while Israel continues to request clarity on the number of living hostages within the strip. A telecommunications blackout in Gaza, which began on 5 March, has also likely strained negotiations by limiting communication between Hamas’ leadership and their representatives. Continued delays to ceasefire negotiations are highly likely to prolong the implementation of a possible agreement beyond the first week of Ramadan (11-18 March), driving elevated ethno-religious tensions and exacerbating strains between Israel and the US.
- US President Joe Biden has reportedly requested to see a list of all weapons scheduled to be transferred to Israel in the coming weeks amid rising bilateral tensions. On 7 March, four unnamed US officials reported that President Biden requested to see the list due to concerns over which weapons the IDF intends to use as it expands its ground operation into the Rafah area. Biden faces significant domestic pressure to exert influence on Israel to moderate its operations in Gaza and to reduce civilian casualty rates, especially in the run-up to the 2024 US presidential election. While Biden is unlikely to restrict or to condition Israel’s access to US-made arms significantly, there is a realistic possibility that he will seek to influence which weapons the IDF employs as part of a future operation in Rafah. Ultimately, Biden’s request underscores the increasing tensions between the US and Israel amid the IDF’s continued operations in Gaza.
- Israel has advanced permits for the construction of 3,500 new buildings in settlements across the West Bank, exacerbating regional tensions. On 6 March, the Higher Planning Committee of the Civil Administration advanced permits for new buildings in the Efrat, Kedar and Maale Adumim settlements. Jordan, Qatar and Saudi Arabia subsequently condemned the move, while Germany has called for Israel to halt any further approvals of settlement expansion. Efforts to expand existing settlements, particularly in the Jerusalem area, will likely exacerbate ethno-religious tensions within the West Bank, increasing the likelihood of violent clashes in and around these settlements. Additionally, we assess that continued settlement expansion will almost certainly drive elevated regional tensions, while also undermining the prospects for Israel’s long-term normalisation with Saudi Arabia.
- Following a state inquiry into the 2021 Mount Meron disaster, the Israeli Labour Party submitted a motion of no confidence in Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu; nevertheless, the risks to government stability remain low. On 6 March, an inquiry commission found that Netanyahu was personally responsible for the security failures during the April 2021 Mount Meron disaster, in which 45 Orthodox Jewish men were killed in a crush at a religious ceremony. Subsequently, the Labour Party’s leader, Merav Michaeli, submitted a no-confidence motion against Netanyahu, slightly increasing government stability risks. While the vote is unlikely to pass the Knesset or to increase policy and/or government stability risks substantially, continued opposition to Netanyahu will likely continue to exacerbate tensions within Israel’s unity government.
- South Africa continues to ask the International Court of Justice (ICJ) to halt IDF operations in Gaza, underscoring the risks of continued pro-Palestine protest activity. On 6 March, South Africa petitioned the ICJ to issue provisional measures calling for the immediate cessation of IDF operations in Gaza amid critical food insecurity and deteriorating humanitarian conditions. Given the ICJ’s previous rulings on petitions to halt IDF operations in Gaza, South Africa’s demands are unlikely to result in provisional measures or a substantial change in operations. Nevertheless, continued proceedings at the ICJ coupled with widespread media coverage of the conditions within Gaza will likely sustain international pressure on Israel to moderate its operations while also driving pro-Palestine protest activity worldwide.
- On 5 March, Alshaya Group, the Middle East and North Africa franchisee of Starbucks, fired around 2,000 workers from its coffee shops due to ‘challenging trading conditions’ over the last six months. The decision underscores the significant impact of rising anti-West sentiment in countries across the region amid the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. This has manifested in wide boycott calls against Western franchises. We assess that reputational and disruption risks for Western brands will increase in the event of a possible IDF ground operation into Rafah in the coming weeks.
- Yemen: Houthi attacks are unlikely to abate in coming weeks despite threat of US retaliation. On 6 March, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) confirmed that a Houthi missile hit the Liberian-owned bulk carrier MV True Confidence while it transited the Gulf of Aden, killing three crew members and injuring four others. The rest of the crew abandoned the ship, which sustained heavy damage. The relative uptick in Houthi maritime attacks in recent days reflects the persistent physical and security risks facing vessels in the waters around Yemen. These risks are likely to increase in the coming days due to a likely retaliation by the US-led maritime coalition, further elevating the risks of conflict escalation. The current frequency of Houthi attacks is unlikely to abate in the coming weeks. We assess that the current Red Sea conflict will become increasingly removed from the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. In this case, a reduction in the tempo of Houthi attacks is less likely, even in the event of a temporary ceasefire in Gaza.
Mar 05.
*Yemen: Aden general strike will possibly increase disruption to humanitarian aid distribution. On 3 March, the General Federation of Southern Trade Unions began a general strike in Aden (Aden governorate) over low salaries and worsening economic conditions. The federation also demanded improved basic water and electricity infrastructure, as well as a resumption of production at Aden’s oil refinery after its closure for maintenance. In the coming days, it is highly likely that most governmental services will be impacted by the strike (except public health facilities). This will likely disrupt business operations across Aden governorate. There is also a realistic possibility of further protests elevating bystander risks near the presidential palace and in downtown areas of Aden city in the coming days due to possible clashes with the security forces. Although operations in Aden port have not yet been affected, we assess there is a realistic possibility that truck drivers and other workers in public logistics sectors will join the strike, hindering the distribution of humanitarian aid arriving at the port.
Mar 04.
KEY POINTS
- The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) began clearing operations in Hamad (north-western Khan Yunis), evacuating around 8,500 residents. There is a realistic possibility that the operation is a pilot for the Rafah offensive.
- Israelis visiting Nablus without IDF approval and reports of a Palestinian family planning an IS-inspired attack highlight the elevated ethno-religious tensions and attack risks around Ramadan.
- Gaza: In the past 72 hours, IDF troops began clearing operations in Hamad district (north-western Khan Yunis). During the operation, named ‘Crown of the West’, the IDF evacuated around 8,500 residents and arrested 85 suspected terrorists. There is a realistic possibility that this operation is a pilot for the planned offensive in Rafah. This would indicate that the IDF is preparing for the possibility of no truce being reached before Ramadan (11 March-9 April) and that it is formulating strategies to minimise civilian casualties. However, such an offensive will prompt international criticism regardless.
- West Bank: On 4 March, the Israeli security forces confirmed the arrests (in February) of four members of a single family in Turqumiyah (Hebron governorate) for planning IED attacks against IDF troops in the area. The detainees had reportedly manufactured approximately 100 IEDs using online videos and guidance from IS operatives aboard. The arrests highlight the increasing radicalisation of Palestinian West Bank residents in the backdrop of the war and continued IDF operations.
- West Bank: On 3 March, 11 vehicles carrying Israelis entered Nablus (Nablus governorate) to visit Joseph’s Tomb without obtaining permission from the IDF, underlining the risk of sporadic spikes in ethno-religious tensions. Visits to Joseph’s Tomb are highly contentious and frequently trigger clashes involving Nablus residents. Once the Israelis disembarked, the IDF intervened and escorted them from the area. Unidentified gunmen reportedly shot at the vehicles as they departed. Attempts to access religiously significant spaces will act as a flashpoint for unrest and violence, particularly over Ramadan (11 March-9 April) and Passover (22-30 April). Tensions around such incidents during these periods will increase the risk of violent clashes between Palestinians and Israelis in the West Bank that necessitate IDF involvement. Such incidents are likely to elevate radicalisation among West Bank Palestinians, while also increasing the risk of attacks in the West Bank and Jerusalem in the coming months.
- Israel-Lebanon: Elevated hostilities between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah (LH) continue; an IDF drone strike on 2 March killed three senior LH members, including the alleged grandson of Hassan Nasrallah, LH’s leader. The IDF claimed it was not aware of this family connection. In early January, the IDF assassinated Wissam al-Tawil, another family member of Nasrallah. On 4 March, LH launched an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) at an orchard in Margaliot on the Israel-Lebanon border, killing one foreign worker and injuring seven others. These recent attacks, both by LH and Israel, are likely to trigger another uptick in hostilities, further elevating the security risks in northern Israel and southern Lebanon.
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS
- On 1 March, the US began airdropping food aid into Gaza amid deteriorating humanitarian conditions and significant operational risks for on-the-ground organisations. This marks the first US airdrop into Gaza since the Israel-Hamas war began and comes after at least 100 Palestinians died after rushing an IDF aid convoy in Gaza City on 29 February (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 29 February 2024). Egypt, France, Jordan, the UAE and the UK have also conducted numerous airdrops in recent weeks, though humanitarian conditions continue to deteriorate. Food, water and energy insecurity remain critical throughout Gaza, while several NGOs report that food insecurity in northern Gaza has reached famine levels. Continued socio-economic deprivation will almost certainly continue driving instances of looting and aid truck rushing, sustaining significant risks for NGO staff and assets throughout Gaza.
- Israeli settlers continue trying to enter Gaza, driving ethno-religious tensions and long-term concerns over governance efforts. On 29 February, dozens of Israelis broke through the Erez checkpoint and entered northern Gaza, while others attempted to construct makeshift structures within the checkpoint compound. Participants stated they were attempting to re-establish settlements in northern Gaza, which the IDF dismantled and evacuated during the 2005 disengagement. IDF personnel turned back all individuals who entered Gaza; they also detained several participants and dispersed the demonstration. The border crossing attempt follows a highly publicised pro-Gaza settlement convention on 28 January and increasing efforts to mobilise Israeli settlers and to re-establish settlements in Gaza. Such demonstrations underscore significant ethno-religious tensions; they will likely exacerbate concerns about Israelis attempting to re-establish settlements during reconstruction efforts in Gaza following the conclusion of the Israel-Hamas war.
- In Israel, increasing protest activity points to elevated anti-government sentiment and ethno-religious tensions; it will also drive disruption to overland movement. On 2 March, thousands of protesters gathered in Jerusalem for the weekly hostage release demonstrations in Paris Square. Protesters, including hostages’ family members who had marched from the Gaza border to Jerusalem, also joined the demonstration, which was broadly peaceful. Similar protests also occurred in Tel Aviv (Tel Aviv district), where demonstrators obstructed the Begin thoroughfare and caused delays along the Ayalon Highway. Although the protests were more peaceful than those held on 24 February (see Sibylline Israel-Hamas War Update – 26 February 2024), low-intensity clashes between demonstrators and pro-government counter-demonstrators, as well as skirmishes with the police, resulted in seven arrests. Also in Tel Aviv district, hundreds of ultra-Orthodox demonstrators blocked sections of Route 4 near Bnei Brak for over three hours on 3 March while protesting against the potential drafting of ultra-Orthodox individuals into the IDF. The protest resulted in low-intensity clashes with the police and the temporary closure of the Gush Dan light rail system connecting Ramat Dan and Petah Tikvah; this points to the risks facing overland movement and bystander safety amid elevated protest activity.
- Increasing tensions between Israel and the US underscore the significant pressure on the IDF to limit its operations in Gaza, particularly ahead of Ramadan. On 3 March, US Vice President Kamala Harris called for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza to facilitate humanitarian aid delivery and hostage releases. This represents the most senior call from within the Biden administration for an immediate ceasefire. Although substantial changes to the US’ diplomatic and economic relations with Israel remain unlikely, these statements underscore rising bilateral tensions and increased pressure from the US for the Israeli government to reach a ceasefire agreement, to moderate the intensity of IDF operations in Gaza and to improve conditions in the West Bank.
- Recent sole-perpetrator attacks against Jewish individuals in France and Switzerland underscore the heightened risks of targeted violence amid elevated ethno-religious tensions in Western Europe. On 1 March, a sole perpetrator physically assaulted a man leaving a synagogue in the Paris neighbourhood of Ménilmontant (France). Subsequently, on 3 March, a sole perpetrator stabbed and injured an Orthodox Jewish man in Zurich (Switzerland; see Sibylline Daily Analytical Update – 4 March 2024). These attacks highlight the risks of radicalisation and sole-perpetrator attacks targeting Jewish individuals and institutions throughout Western Europe amid elevated ethno-religious tensions that are (partly) driven by the Israel-Hamas war. (Source: Sibylline)
08 Mar 24. DOD to Construct Pier to Deliver Humanitarian Aid to Gaza.
The Department of Defense will undertake an emergency mission to establish a temporary pier on the coast of Gaza to deliver up to 2,000,000 humanitarian aid meals per-day, the Pentagon announced today.
The announcement comes less than a day after the State of the Union address, when President Joe Biden called on the military to lead such an operation.
The mission, which will be under the command of U.S. Transportation Command and conducted by the 7thTransportation Brigade from Joint Base Langley-Eustis, Virginia, and other forces, will deploy DOD’s Joint Logistics Over-the-Shore capability, or JLOTS, with a goal of beginning delivery operations in approximately 60 days.
The components of the JLOTS include a floating pier, an approximately 1,800-foot-long causeway that will be attached to the shore, and a group of logistic support vessels and barges that will transport the aid from the pier to the causeway. Once the aid has reached the two-lane causeway, it can be transported to the land and distributed to Gaza, according to Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder, who explained the planned JLOTS mission to the media during today’s briefing.
“This is part of a full-court press by the United States to not only focus on working on opening up and expanding routes via land, which are the optimal way to get aid into Gaza, but also by conducting air drops,” said Ryder, in reference to the more than 100,000 meals that have been dropped into Gaza by the U.S. and Jordan during the past week.
“As the president has said, not enough aid is getting in ,” Ryder continued, “so is a capability… that we are going to execute and enable us to get… up to 2,000,000 meals in a day.”
Ryder stressed that, just as now, there will be no U.S. boots on the ground when the JLOTS mission begins.
“The ability to do this without putting forces on ground is due to the fact that the causeway is essentially modular, built at sea, and then driven into the ground from offshore,” Ryder stated. “We’ll be working with partners in the region to be on the receiving end of , but at no time will we require U.S. forces to actually go on the ground. Our role will be essentially to provide the service of getting to the causeway, at which point it will then be distributed.”
Ryder added that mission planners have suggested Cypress as one possible location where aid could be loaded onto commercial vessels for transport to the floating pier off Gaza.
In terms of security for JLOTS and who will provide it, Ryder said DOD is currently working with partners in the region, including Israel, to make that determination.
“Certainly, one of the key things that we’re going to be focused on is the security of our personnel and working with partners in the region to ensure that the aid that is delivered can be distributed in a safe and secure way,” Ryder said.
The 60-day timeline for JLOTS to become operational off Gaza includes the time it will take to transport some of the JLOTS components from Virginia to the Middle East, Ryder said.
JLOTS capabilities have been deployed by DOD in many countries and regions in need of humanitarian aid and disaster relief over the years, with the most recent deployment being in support of Exercise Talisman Sabre, a large-scale joint defense exercise between Australia and the United States.
(Source: U.S. DoD)
05 Mar 24. U.S. Participates in Second Humanitarian Airdrop for Gaza.
A combined effort by U.S. Central Command and the Royal Jordanian Air Force provided additional humanitarian aid to northern Gaza today.
“Three U.S. C-130s dropped over 36,800 meals into northern Gaza to provide critical relief to civilians there,” said Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder during a briefing this afternoon. “This is the second combined airdrop to deliver humanitarian assistance to the people of Gaza.”
The first such humanitarian mission occurred Saturday when the U.S. and Jordanian forces airdropped 38,000 meals along the coastline of Gaza, Ryder said.
“These humanitarian airdrops contribute to ongoing U.S. government efforts to provide life-saving humanitarian assistance to people in Gaza and are part of a sustained effort to get more aid into Gaza, including by expanding the flow of aid through land corridors and routes,” Ryder said. “We continue planning for potential follow-on airborne aid delivery missions.”
Also today at the Pentagon, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III met with Minister Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli war cabinet. Among topics of discussion during that bilateral meeting was humanitarian assistance in Gaza.
“The secretary … expressed strong concerns over the humanitarian situation in Gaza and requested Minister Gantz’s support in enabling more humanitarian assistance and distribution into Gaza,” Ryder said.
One way Israel can assist in helping more aid to get to Gaza, Ryder said, is to ensure availability of a ground route, such as at the Kerem Shalom checkpoint in southern Gaza.
“Not enough aid is getting into Gaza. And so, the Department of Defense is supporting that broader U.S. government effort to help contribute to that,” Ryder said. “Certainly, we want to see more aid being delivered via ground routes. And again, this is part of the discussion that we’re having with the Israelis in terms of how work to ensure that those routes are open, and that aid can get in quicker.”
While the U.S. has provided humanitarian assistance to Gaza via airdrop, Ryder said the U.S. is exploring other options — including supporting delivery of assistance to Gaza by sea.
“In coordination with the U.S. interagency and international partners, we are actively reviewing options for a maritime corridor for humanitarian assistance into Gaza,” Ryder said, adding that this includes potential commercial and contracted options.
A “maritime corridor” to provide humanitarian assistance to Gaza involves ensuring a secure and safe route through the Mediterranean. U.S. involvement in such an endeavor, Ryder said, would be in providing support to the effort, rather than having U.S. forces go ashore.
“At this point in time, there are no plans to send any U.S. forces into Gaza,” Ryder said. (Source: U.S. DoD)
04 Mar 24. Red Sea underwater data cables cut as Houthi attacks continue.
Three Red Sea underwater cables providing internet and telecommunications around the world have been cut as the waterway remains a target of Yemen’s Houthi rebels, officials said Monday. Meanwhile, a suspected Houthi attack set a ship ablaze in the Gulf of Aden.
What cut the lines remains unclear. There has been concern about the cables being targeted in the Houthi campaign, which the rebels describe as an effort to pressure Israel to end its war on Hamas in the Gaza Strip. The Houthis have denied attacking the lines, however.
While global shipping has already been disrupted through the Red Sea, a crucial route for cargo and energy shipments from Asia and the Middle East to Europe, the sabotage of telecommunication lines could further escalate the months-long crisis.
The cut lines include Asia-Africa-Europe 1, the Europe India Gateway, Seacom and TGN-Gulf, Hong Kong-based HGC Global Communications said. It described the cuts as affecting 25% of the traffic flowing through the Red Sea. It described the Red Sea route as crucial for data moving from Asia to Europe and said it had begun rerouting traffic.
HGC Global Communications described the Seacom-TGN-Gulf line as being two separate cables when it is actually one at the area of the cut, according to Tim Stronge, a subsea cable expert with TeleGeography, a Washington-based telecommunications market research company.
Responding to questions from The Associated Press, Seacom said that “initial testing indicates the affected segment lies within Yemeni maritime jurisdictions in the Southern Red Sea.” It said it was rerouting the traffic it was able to change, though some services were down.
Tata Communications, part of the Indian conglomerate and behind the Seacom-TGN-Gulf line, told the AP it “initiated immediate and appropriate remedial actions” after the line was cut.
“We invest in various cable consortiums to increase our diversity and hence in such situations of a cable cut or snag, we are able to automatically reroute our services,” Tata said.
Other firms behind those lines, which provide data to Africa, Asia and the Middle East, did not immediately respond to queries Monday from the AP.
In early February, Yemen’s internationally recognized government in exile alleged that the Houthis planned to attack the cables. The lines appeared to have been cut on Feb. 24, with the organization NetBlocks noticing internet access in the East African nation of Djibouti suffering from interruptions two days later. Seacom serves Djibouti. There have been disruptions in Bahrain as well, a Persian Gulf island kingdom also served by the lines.
But for their part, the Houthis have denied targeting the cables. The rebels blamed the disruptions on British and U.S. military operations but did not offer evidence to support the allegation and have made false claims in the past.
“The hostilities on Yemen by the British and U.S. naval military units caused a disruption in the submarine cables in the Red Sea, which jeopardized the security and safety of international communications and the normal flow of information,” the Houthi-controlled Transportation Ministry in Yemen’s rebel-held capital, Sanaa, alleged.
Since November, the rebels have repeatedly targeted ships in the Red Sea and surrounding waters over the Israel-Hamas war. Those vessels have included at least one with cargo bound for Iran, the Houthis’ main benefactor, and an aid ship later bound for Houthi-controlled territory.
Despite more than a month and a half of U.S.-led airstrikes, Houthi rebels have remained capable of launching significant attacks. They include the attack last month on a cargo ship carrying fertilizer, the Rubymar, which sank on Saturday after drifting for several days, and the downing of an American drone worth tens of ms of dollars.
The Houthis insist their attacks will continue until Israel stops its combat operations in the Gaza Strip, which have enraged the wider Arab world and seen the Houthis gain international recognition.
Meanwhile, the British military’s United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations center on Monday separately warned of a new attack in the Gulf of Aden. The private security firm Ambrey described the vessel targeted as a Liberia-flagged, Israel-affiliated container ship that sustained damage and issued a distress call.
“The container ship reportedly encountered two explosions of which the first occurred at a ‘distance’ off its port quarter, while the second damaged the vessel’s accommodation block and a container leading,” Ambrey said. “The explosion further led to a fire onboard and the crew’s firefighting efforts were underway.”
Ambrey said no crew member on the ship had been injured. The U.S. Navy’s 5th Fleet, which patrols the Mideast, did not immediately respond to questions about the attack.
The Houthis did not immediately claim the attack, but it typically takes them several hours before they acknowledge an assault.
It remains unclear how the Houthis could attack subsea cables themselves. The rebels are not known to have the diving or salvage capability to target the lines, which sit hundreds of meters (feet) below the surface of the waterway.
However, subsea cables can be cut by anchors, including those dropped from some of the ships that have been disabled in attacks. A drifting ship with its anchor scraping the sea could be the culprit.
“Our team thinks it is plausible that it could have been affected by anchor dragging, due to the amount of marine traffic the region deals with and the low seabed in many parts of the Red Sea,” Seacom said. “This can only be confirmed once the repair ship is on site.”
There are 14 cables now running through the Red Sea, with another six planned, Stronge, the subsea cable expert, said.
“We estimate that over 90% of communications between Europe and Asia traverse submarine cables in the Red Sea,” he said. “Fortunately, telecom operators have built a high degree of redundancy into the system — there are many cables traversing the Red Sea.” (Source: C4ISR & Networks)
04 Mar 24. DOD Exploring Potential for Gaza Humanitarian Aid Missions. The Defense Department is planning for potential additional humanitarian aid missions in Gaza following an initial airdrop of aid over the weekend. On Saturday, Air Force C-130 Hercules aircraft attached to U.S Central Command partnered with Royal Jordanian Air Force C-130s to drop over 38,000 meals ready-to-eat to civilians along the Gaza coastline.
“These airdrops are part of a sustained effort to get more aid into Gaza, including by expanding flow of aid through land corridors and routes,” Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters during a meeting today with the Pentagon press corps.
On the topic of land corridors, Singh noted that between 30 and 120 trucks carrying aid have been able to enter Gaza daily over the past week, and Saturday’s airdrops served as a “supplemental” effort to reach Palestinian civilians.
“It’s certainly a priority of this administration to not only open those humanitarian corridors and allow aid to flow,” said Singh, “but to make sure the is getting to the people who need it the most.”
In addressing a video posted to social media of some airborne pallets of aid landing in water off the Gaza coastline, Singh said the DOD believes those MREs — the contents of which she stated were culturally sensitive, from a dietary standpoint — were able to be successfully obtained by the Palestinians.
While acknowledging that one drop of 66 bundles totaling 38,000 meals isn’t enough to feed all the population of Gaza, Singh emphasized that DOD is continuing to work to provide more aid.
“We’re doing everything possible that we can get food into the region, by all means necessary,” she said.
The airdrop, which the U.S. and Jordan coordinated with Israel ahead of time, followed an announcement by President Joe Biden one day prior that the U.S. would begin delivering aid to Gaza in response to deteriorating humanitarian conditions as a result of the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas. (Source: U.S. DoD)
04 Mar 24. Israeli Strikes Increase in Lebanon, Killing Seven Hezbollah Members. An Israeli drone strike in southern Lebanon resulted in the death of three Hezbollah members on Saturday, as confirmed by the IDF. The strike was part of Israel’s response to rocket attacks launched from Lebanese territory, attributed to militants associated with Hezbollah’s Imam Hossein Division, a faction with ties to Iran. In addition to this, Israeli air force fighter jets conducted operations against Hezbollah targets in the districts of A-Lebuna and Blida, while another strike on a residence in the town of Ramia overnight claimed four more Hezbollah lives, according to a Lebanese security official.
Hezbollah acknowledged the loss of seven fighters on Saturday, without specifying the details of their deaths. This escalation is part of ongoing hostilities between Hezbollah and Israeli forces along the Lebanon-Israel border, amidst Israel’s broader conflict with Hamas in Gaza.
Despite the violence, Hezbollah has indicated a willingness to halt hostilities if a ceasefire in Gaza is achieved, though it has pledged to continue its operations until then. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, on the other hand, has committed to intensifying actions against Hezbollah, even in the event of a ceasefire with Hamas, until the group withdraws from the border region. (Source: https://www.sofx.com/)
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