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NEWS IN BRIEF – ISRAEL – HAMAS CONFLICT

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Military And Security Developments

Jan 5.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • In his second speech in 48 hours, Lebanese Hizballah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah, reiterated his organisation’s commitment to continuing with hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border as long as the Israel-Hamas war continues. He also warned that the death of Saleh al-Arouri would be avenged. However, a major escalation involving an incursion into Israel remains unlikely.
  • Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, presented a four-point plan for Gaza after the war; it includes the provision of security by Israel and the devolution of civil responsibilities to local authorities unrelated to Hamas or the Palestinian Authority (PA).
  • Gaza: Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations over the past 24 hours have mainly focused on southern and central Gaza. Cross-border rocket fire from Gaza remains low and has principally targeted the Gaza envelope. Earlier on 5 January, the IDF opened a humanitarian corridor along al-Rashid (al-Bahr) Street for north-to-south movement between 0900hrs and 1600hrs (local time). Additionally, the IDF announced a tactical pause of military activities in Tel al-Sultan (Rafah, southern Gaza) earlier on 5 January from 1000hrs to 1400hrs.
  • West Bank: A vehicle-borne improvised explosive device (VBIED) targeting IDF troops detonated on 3-4 January during a 40-hour IDF operation in Nur Shams (Tulkarm governorate). No casualties were reported. While the use of VBIEDs in the West Bank is unusual, the incident does not represent a significant escalation in the capabilities of local militant groups; another VBIED attack was recorded in October 2023, also in Nur Shams. Regardless, the IDF security posture in the West Bank and Jerusalem is likely to remain heightened throughout the weekend following the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri on 2 January.
  • Lebanon-Syria: In recent days, the IDF has conducted military exercises in the Golan Heights, likely (in part) to dissuade incursions from Lebanon and Syria. A heightened IDF security posture and alertness along the Israel-Lebanon and Israel-Syria borders will likely be maintained over the weekend due to concerns of possible reprisal attacks following the assassination of al-Arouri. Yet despite concerns of retaliation, cross-border attacks and exchanges of fire along the Israel-Lebanon border have so far remained on-trend.
  • Red Sea: On 4 January, a Houthi maritime drone exploded near commercial vessels in the Red Sea; it caused no damage or casualties. The attack comes one day after the US published a joint statement warning the Iran-backed Houthis against continuing their attacks in the Red Sea. It is currently unclear if the explosion reflects a failed attempt by the Houthis, an interception by the US or Houthi posturing in defiance of the US statement. However, we assess that it underscores the likely continuation of Houthi attacks in the area.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • On 4 January, Israel’s defence minister, Yoav Gallant, announced a four-point post-war plan for Gaza which would delegate civil administration to a local political authority. The plan outlines that Israel will retain security control of Gaza indefinitely and that a multi-national task force will be responsible for reconstructing civilian infrastructure following the conclusion of ground operations. Gallant also outlined that the political administration of the enclave will be devolved to a local authority, despite US pressure to delegate these competencies to a reformed PA. However, as the plan is conditional on the elimination of Hamas’ governance and military capabilities, it is highly unlikely to be implemented in the short-to-medium term.
  • In a speech earlier on 5 January, Hasan Nasrallah, the leader of Lebanese Hizballah, emphasised the need for retaliation following al-Arouri’s death, as well as the group’s intention to maintain hostilities until the end of the Israel-Hamas war. Nasrallah did not commit to full mobilisation against Israel, mentioning that reclaiming disputed territories will come after the war. As such, while retaliation will likely drive an uptick in hostilities, a major escalation, including an attempted ground invasion of disputed territories, remains unlikely.

FORECAST

The attack risks in the West Bank, Jerusalem and central Israel following the assassination of Saleh al-Arouri will remain elevated over the weekend. Hamas likely wants to execute a high-profile attack against Israeli targets to avenge al-Arouri. Such an operation would likely be characterised by a terror attack targeting civilian population centres, possibly in central Israel. However, the IDF’s elevated security posture and alertness is likely to mitigate the risk of a successful attack. Furthermore, the reduced capabilities of Hamas in the West Bank due to widespread IDF arrests will increase the group’s reliance on the successful radicalisation of West Bank civilians. The mobilisation of West Bank communities remains limited, while West Bank militants continue to face challenges due to constant IDF pressure. These factors will limit militants’ capabilities to execute sophisticated attacks; nevertheless, the risks are elevated due to the likely heightened determination of potential perpetrators.

The risk of advanced cross-border rocket fire from Lebanon and Syria will remain elevated throughout the week. Hizballah’s leader, Hasan Nasrallah, reiterated in his speech on 5 January that a response to al-Arouri’s death is coming. This indicates that there is a realistic possibility of a further increase in hostilities over the weekend, including an elevated frequency of strikes and the utilisation of longer-range and higher-precision rockets targeting Israel. In his speech, Nasrallah also reiterated Lebanese Hizballah’s prioritisation of military targets over civilians. As such, while elevated security risks for civilians will persist, Lebanese Hizballah is more likely to target IDF military positions using advanced weapons as opposed to civilian areas.

Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):

  • A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
  • High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
  • Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
  • Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
  • An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
  • US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
  • Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
  • The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza

Jan 04.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • UN Security Council (UNSC) discussions and warning statements by the US and its allies underscore the international community’s growing assertiveness in the face of Houthi attacks in the Red Sea, elevating the risk of escalation in the event of continued attacks.
  • A speech by Hassan Nasrallah, Lebanese Hizballah’s leader, on 3 January suggests that major escalation is unlikely; however, heightened security risks and gradual escalation will likely continue along the Israel-Lebanon border.
  • Gaza: The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesperson to the Arab Media announced the immediate closure of the daily humanitarian corridor along Salah al-Din Street. The spokesperson announced the opening of an alternative corridor on al-Rashid (al-Bahr) Street, though only for north-to-south movement. The new corridor was open from 0900hrs to 1600hrs (local time) earlier on 4 January.
  • West Bank: IDF operations in the West Bank continue on trend; the operation in Nur Shams (Tulkarm governorate) has been ongoing for over 30 hours. According to reports, over 100 individuals were detained and questioned during the operation; at least ten were arrested. During the operation, the IDF claimed it uncovered and destroyed two explosive-producing laboratories.
  • Lebanon: Hostilities along the Israel-Lebanon border continue to escalate gradually. The IDF reportedly killed four Lebanese Hizballah fighters in Naqoura (South governorate), one of whom was reportedly a local Lebanese Hizballah leader. The IDF has maintained a heightened security posture in border regions in preparation for an anticipated Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas response to al-Arouri’s assassination.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • Despite escalating cross-border clashes, Lebanese Hizballah leader Hasan Nasrallah’s speech on 3 January did not commit to a significant escalation in hostilities with the IDF. While Nasrallah stated that the assassination of  Saleh al-Arouri ‘will not go unpunished’, his speech largely represented a continuation of previously observed non-committal rhetoric. An additional speech is scheduled for 5 January, though it will likely focus on the 3 January bombing attack in Kerman (Iran; see Sibylline Alert – Iran – 3 January 2024).
  • On 3 January, the US and 12 allied countries released a joint statement condemning the continued Houthi attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. The statement follows discussions at the UNSC on 3 January regarding elevated hostilities in the Red Sea, though no formal condemnation has yet been issued by the council. UNSC discussions will continue in the coming days, after which the council will likely vote on a resolution condemning militant activity in the Red Sea. However, China and/or Russia will likely oppose any explicit references to the Houthis within such a resolution, increasing the likelihood of further delays.

FORECAST

The UNSC discussions and the joint statement by the US and its allies condemning the Houthis underscore the risk of escalation in the event of continued Houthi attacks. The discussions and US-led statement likely aim to lay the groundwork for an increased naval response to the Houthi attacks, reflecting the growing assertiveness of the US and its allies operating in the Red Sea. These declarations of intent by the US and its allies have essentially created an escalation dynamic that is dependent on the Houthis’ response. There is a realistic possibility that the Houthis will continue to target commercial ships in the region in the coming weeks. This will in turn result in various countries’ navies targeting Houthi missile launchpads. Any such escalation is likely to elevate regional tensions further, as well as the risks facing ships sailing in the Bab-al-Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. There is also a realistic possibility that allegations of Iran supporting the Houthi attacks will result in further sanctions against Tehran and its growing regional isolation.

Nasrallah’s speech is unlikely to result in a significant escalation of clashes along the Israel-Lebanon border, though cross-border attacks are likely to increase gradually in the coming days. Continued rocket launches, mortar fire and drone incursions into northern Israel are highly likely, though a full-scale mobilisation of Lebanese Hizballah militants and/or a ground operation remain unlikely. However, there is a realistic possibility that Nasrallah’s reluctance to commit to more assertive action will aggravate divisions within Lebanese Hizballah’s leadership, creating fissures between the hardline militants and the moderates who favour the current course of action. While this is unlikely to result in a significant splintering within Lebanese Hizballah’s ranks, there is a realistic possibility of increasing disunity impacting its leadership; this will increase the likelihood of less co-ordinated attacks taking place along the Israel-Lebanon border, as well as target misidentification.

Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):

  • A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
  • High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
  • Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
  • Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
  • An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
  • US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
  • Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
  • The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza

Jan 03.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The assassination of Hamas’ deputy in Beirut (Lebanon) will highly likely elevate tensions between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah, increasing the security risks across Israel (including in the West Bank and Jerusalem) while also prompting Hamas to withdraw from ceasefire negotiations.
  • On 2 January, two anti-ship ballistic missiles were launched at a commercial ship in the Red Sea; no damage was reported.
  • The Argentine security forces arrested individuals suspected of planning a terror attack against Jewish and Israeli targets in Buenos Aires; this underscores the elevated security risks in the vicinity of locations across the world frequented by Israelis and/or Jews.
  • Israel Defense Forces (IDF) operations to consolidate control of Gaza City continue, including in al-Daraj and Tuffah. The IDF reported that its troops arrested suspects hiding among women and children carrying white flags. The IDF subsequently claimed that investigations into the detainees revealed the identity of several individuals who had participated in the 7 October 2023 attack. Additionally, on 2 January, the IDF announced the completion of the takeover of Hamas’ ‘eastern outpost’, a strategic intelligence compound comprising 37 structures and vast underground tunnels and bunkers in northern Gaza.
  • On 2 January, an explosion in Beirut (Lebanon) killed Saleh al-Arouri, Hamas’ political deputy and the de facto leader of the group’s West Bank military wing. The explosion, allegedly the result of an Israeli drone strike, killed two other high-ranking Hamas individuals and four other members. Following the strike, Lebanese Hizballah threatened Israel with a decisive response, though a source in the organisation reportedly claimed this would be calculated to avoid a full war. Since the assassination, tit-for-tat cross-border hostilities between Israel and Lebanese Hizballah and/or affiliated militants have continued on a trend of gradual escalation.
  • Following al-Arouri’s assassination, demonstrations broke out throughout the West Bank, particularly in Hebron, Jenin and Ramallah. Hamas also called for a general strike on 3 January, which has been broadly observed by the public and private sectors in the West Bank. In the northern West Bank, the IDF conducted a large operation in Nur Shams (Tulkarm governorate), striking militants with drones.
  • On 2 January, Yemen-based Houthis fired two anti-ship ballistic missiles at a commercial vessel in the southern Red Sea. The missiles did not hit the Malta-flagged CMA CGM TAGE, and no material damage was reported.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • Following al-Arouri’s assassination, Hamas announced the postponement of ceasefire and hostage release negotiations with Israel. Subsequently, Egyptian mediators announced the suspension of the talks, with the Israeli negotiation team reportedly leaving Cairo on 3 January.
  • A foiled terror attack in Buenos Aires (Argentina) has underscored the elevated threats to Israeli and Jewish individuals in the South American country. On 3 January, the security forces arrested three individuals on charges of planning to carry out terrorist attacks in the Argentine capital. The arrests come amid the ongoing Pan American Maccabiah Games, held in Buenos Aires and attended by roughly 4,200 athletes of Jewish origin. It remains unclear whether the planned attacks aimed to target the event. Since the Israel-Hamas war began, the US and Israeli embassies in Buenos Aires have reportedly received bomb threats, highlighting the elevated threat of terror attacks posed to individuals and installations associated with Israel. However, given the elevated local security posture around the event, particularly in Buenos Aires, the risk of attacks remains relatively low overall.

FORECAST

The assassination of Saleh al-Arouri will likely trigger an escalation in clashes between the IDF and Lebanese Hizballah and Lebanon-based Hamas militants, increasing physical security risks throughout northern Israel and southern Lebanon. In a speech in August 2023, Hizballah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah stated that an assassination in Beirut would be considered a red line, which, if crossed, would merit a decisive response. Consequently, Lebanese Hizballah is highly likely to increase the frequency and scale of cross-border rocket barrages into northern Israel in the coming days. There is a realistic possibility this will include extending the range of strikes outside areas targeted since the start of the Israel-Hamas war, increasing the threat to population centres as far away as Nazareth and Israel’s offshore gas rigs. There is also a realistic possibility that Lebanese Hizballah will use more advanced rockets to target IDF positions close to the Israel-Lebanon border, elevating bystander risks therein. Similarly, an escalation in cross-border attacks by Hamas militants based in Lebanon is highly likely. However, while there is a realistic possibility that Hamas will use long-range rockets, strikes on locations in central Israel remain unlikely. Despite the risk of a substantial escalation in cross-border clashes, Lebanese Hizballah is unlikely to launch a full-scale offensive or ground incursion into northern Israel in the coming days. However, elevated risks of target misidentification and miscalculation will sustain the likelihood of further escalation along the Israel-Lebanon border.

Al-Arouri’s role as the de-facto leader of Hamas’ military wing in the West Bank will increase the risk of domestic unrest and clashes in the West Bank and Jerusalem. In the coming days, further demonstrations, strikes and clashes are highly likely, elevating mobility risks and disrupting business operations in the area. The assassination will also likely elevate the risk of ad hoc sole-perpetrator attacks against the security forces and/or Israeli settlers in the West Bank and Jerusalem in an attempt to avenge al-Arouri’s death. While stabbing attacks are likely, there is a realistic possibility that Hamas and West Bank-based militants will attempt to perform more complex attacks, including shootings and bombings. Attack risks will remain elevated in the coming week, particularly in crowded public places, around military positions (including checkpoints and border crossings) and at religious sites in the West Bank and Jerusalem.

In Gaza, Hamas militants will likely respond to the assassination by increasing rocket attacks targeting Israeli population centres, particularly those in Central district. While these will sustain elevated security risks throughout Israel in the coming week, strikes are unlikely to be as frequent or intense as they were at the beginning of the Israel-Hamas war given the IDF’s continued ground operations in Gaza. The suspension of ceasefire negotiations has also significantly reduced the likelihood of a hostage release deal being reached in the short-to-medium term; this will sustain the conflict within Gaza. Nonetheless, the IDF’s shift to third-phase ground operations will likely continue in the coming weeks; it will prioritise targeted raids over major combat operations, moderating the war’s overall intensity.

Hamas members and affiliated militias are likely to increase their efforts to conduct attacks on Israeli and/or Jewish targets worldwide following the al-Arouri assassination. Security risks for travellers and staff from Jewish and/or Israeli backgrounds will remain elevated in the coming weeks, reflected in part by the alleged terror plot in Buenos Aires. As such, the risk of attacks will be elevated around locations and events frequented by Israeli and/or Jewish populations, including official institutions such as embassies.

Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):

  • A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
  • High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
  • Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
  • Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
  • An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
  • US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
  • Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
  • The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza

*Lebanon-Israel: Hizballah will tighten security in Beirut’s Dahie area; uptick in border clashes is likely. On 2 January, the deputy leader of Hamas’ political bureau, Saleh al Arouri, was killed in an explosion in Beirut (Lebanon) along with six other members of the group. Hamas, Lebanese Hizballah and the Lebanese government have accused Israel of carrying out the blast. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and the Israeli government have issued no comment regarding the incident. Lebanese Hizballah and affiliated Palestinian groups will likely increase rocket and other projectile launches from Lebanon into northern Israel in the coming hours and days. In Beirut, Lebanese Hizballah is highly likely to tighten its already elevated security posture in the southern Dahie neighbourhood where the explosion took place. This will increase the likelihood of arbitrary stop-and-search operations by the militant group and/or the Lebanese security forces in the capital in the coming days. Efforts to identify Israeli spies and disrupt further threats to key Palestinian figures in Lebanon will increase the likelihood of individuals associated with Israel being arrested.

Jan 02.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

  • The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are slowly moving into the third phase of fighting in Gaza, withdrawing soldiers while continuing to focus operations in central and southern Gaza.
  • Uptick in cross-border fire from Syria into Israel and IDF alleged strikes in Syria represent an escalation in hostilities, though are currently unlikely to signal the opening of another front.
  • US Navy destruction of Houthi ships reflects new US modus operandi in the Red Sea, though Houthi attacks are likely to persist.
  • The IDF withdrew five brigades from the Gaza Strip, likely as part of a transition into the third phase of fighting. The third phase, yet to be announced, will likely prioritise targeted raids over major combat operations. However, meanwhile, operations continued to expand in central Gaza, mainly in Bureij, and in southern Gaza where a brigade transitioned from northern Gaza into Khan Yunis. During the past week the IDF also began moving from clearing operations to holding operations in northern Gaza, though clearing operations continued in areas such as Beit Lahia and Tuffah.
  • During the past week clashes on the Israel-Lebanon border between the IDF and Hizballah and affiliated militants continued gradually escalating on-trend. The frequency of cross-border rockets and anti-tank-guided missiles fired at IDF forces and Israeli population centres increased. Similarly, IDF air strikes and shelling in southern Lebanon also increased. However, hostilities remain below trigger points for significant escalation, such as targeting critical Israeli infrastructure or ground operations by either Hizballah or the IDF.
  • West Bank – NSTR
  • Over the past week, hostilities between the IDF and Syrian-based militants have increased. The IDF allegedly struck positions held by the Syrian army, Hizballah and the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in Syria six times over the past week. The strikes come amid an uptick in hostilities and cross-border fire from Syria since the IDF allegedly killed the IRGC general responsible for weapon deliveries to Hizballah, Sayyed Razi Mousavi, in Syria on 25 December. Over the night of 29-30 December, the IDF allegedly struck weapon convoys, warehouses and positions of Hizballah and IRGC-affiliated militants on the Syria-Iraq border, in Abu Kamal (Deir ez-Zor Governorate). Additionally, the IDF confirmed it struck Syrian army positions on 2 January, in response to cross-border fire from Syria into Israel. Of note, there was a small uptick in activity by the Islamic Resistance in Iraq (IRI) against Israel. On 27 December, the IRI claimed an attack on the Fik Airfield (Golan Heights) which Elbit Systems use to test military technology, though no damage or harm to life was reported at the time.
  • Iran’s naval deployment to the Red Sea is sustaining elevated risks for commercial vessels despite elevated efforts by the US to engage and curtail attacks by Houthi rebels. On 31 December three Houthi small boats fired on and attempted to board the Singapore-flagged Maersk Hangzhou while on transit through the Red Sea. This followed a missile attack on the vessel on 30 December. US Navy helicopters responded to the attack, sinking the vessels and killing ten Houthi militants. Subsequently, the Iranian navy deployed a destroyer, the Alborz, to the Bab El-Mandeb strait, escalating regional tensions and compounding the volatile security environment in the Red Sea. While the Iranian ship is unlikely to conduct attacks on commercial vessels, it will act as a source of reconnaissance and intelligence for the Houthis, sustaining the risk of further attacks and vessel harassment.

POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS

  • Israel’s authorisation of humanitarian aid deliveries into Gaza via the Mediterranean Sea corridor will likely increase aid provision, though critical conditions are highly likely to persist. On 31 December, Israel’s Foreign Minister announced plans to allow aid deliveries directly to Gaza through a sea corridor via Cyprus have been approved. While the opening of the sea corridor will likely increase the volume of aid delivered into Gaza and moderately reduce bottlenecks at the Rafah and Kerem Shalom border crossings, continued IDF operations will sustain significant operational challenges for organisations distributing aid.
  • Turkey’s arrest of 33 individuals on charges of spying for Israel underscores deteriorating bilateral relations. On 2 January, Turkish counter-terrorism forces arrested the individuals in co-ordinated operations across eight provinces. The arrests underscore elevated risks of surveillance and detention for Israeli and Israel-linked individuals throughout Turkey, amid heightened regional tensions driven by the Israel-Hamas war. In November Israel’s security services (Mossad) reported plans to assassinate Hamas leadership and operatives overseas, including in Turkey. Regional efforts to counteract such operations will sustain elevated risks of harassment for Israeli nationals, while there is a realistic possibility that persistently elevated diplomatic tensions driving trade and visa regulation disputes.
  • South Africa’s petitioning of the International Court of Justice is unlikely to significantly alter IDF operations. On 29 December, South Africa filed a case at the ICJ accusing Israel of genocide in Gaza. Israeli authorities have announced they will participate in the adjudication but describe the filing as baseless and beyond the ICJ’s remit. As a civil court, the ICJ can award damages and request compliance with rulings on rights-based matters, however as court proceedings generally span multiple years, it is highly unlikely that a ruling will be reached in the short to medium term. As such, while the filing highlights significant regional tensions and deteriorating relations between Israel and South Africa, it is highly unlikely to influence IDF operations in Gaza or moderate clashes therein.

FORECAST

The IDF transition will likely transition into a third phase of the conflict in Gaza in late January-early February. This decision would likely be driven by growing US pressure and diminishing returns for both intense ground operations and a continued large IDF presence in northern Gaza. The third phase is likely to focus on maintaining hold of the northern Gaza location with a reduced number of forces and targeted raids. There is a realistic possibility that IDF operations across Gaza will transition to the third phase in a staggered manner, with operations in southern Gaza transitioning later than northern Gaza. Even so, fighting in Gaza is likely to continue over the coming months, with a realistic possibility that a temporary ceasefire will be announced before a full transition into the third phase, although currently, ceasefire talks are stalled.

A gradual increase in hostilities along the Israel-Syria border is likely to continue over the coming week. Iranian and Hizballah-affiliated militants in Syria are likely to continue their uptick in cross-border fire in response to Mousavi’s assassination. This is likely to lead to further IDF strikes in Syria, conducted both in retaliation and pre-emptively against weapon warehouses and militant positions. However, currently these increased hostilities are unlikely to prompt a major escalation and the opening of a full front in the conflict between Israel and militants in Syria.

The gradual increase in the US response to Houthi hostilities against commercial shipping in the Red Sea is likely to elevate the risks of escalation in the coming month. The US destruction of three small boats and the killing of 10 Houthi militants signals a gradual escalation in the Red Sea, and likely a new US modus operandi. Regardless, further Houthi attacks remain likely, sustaining security and operational risks for commercial shipping in the Red Sea, particularly for companies publicly announcing their return to the area. Additionally, while the deployment of the Iranian destroyer to the Red Sea is unlikely to present a direct threat to commercial shipping or the US Navy, there is a realistic possibility the ship will provide intelligence to the Houthis, possibly increasing the effectiveness of attacks by studying US Navy patterns. Further Houthi attacks, particularly should any be successful, will increase the likelihood that the US will escalate its response over the coming month, including possibly returning fire against Houthi missile sites in Yemen.

Triggers and indicators for escalation (we will continue to review and update these points):

  • A successful terror attack by Lebanese Hizballah and/or Hamas against Israeli/Jewish targets outside Israel
  • High-casualty incidents occur in the West Bank due to IDF miscalculation or attacks by Israeli settlers and/or Palestinian militants
  • Calls by Hamas to mobilise receive substantial support from Palestinian communities
  • Israeli airstrikes in Gaza inflict high casualty numbers, prompting Lebanese Hizballah and/or West Bank-based militants to retaliate
  • An uptick in Israeli airstrikes against Syria to prevent weapons transfers prompts an escalation from Lebanon-based militants
  • US support for Israel ramps up beyond the current posturing level
  • Israel strikes Hamas leadership within Lebanon
  • The ongoing IDF ground operation expands further into southern Gaza

*Turkey-Iraq: Assassination of senior PKK member will likely drive further escalations along border. On 2 January, Turkish media outlets reported that the Turkish National Intelligence Organization (MIT) killed Abdulmutalip Dogruci, a senior member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Sulaymaniyah (Iraq). No additional details were disclosed about the assassination, which comes a week after the MIT killed Zeynep Eyveri, another senior PKK member. These recent assassinations follow intense clashes between the PKK and the Turkish army in northern Iraq last week. Tensions along the border will consequently remain elevated in the coming days. Cross-border attacks against Turkish military positions by the PKK are now more likely, driving bystander risks and disruption to cross-border movement. Additionally, a limited Turkish ground operation into Iraq’s Kurdistan Region remains a realistic possibility in the coming months.

*Israel: Widespread protests are unlikely following Supreme Court’s ruling on judicial overhaul law. On 2 January, Israel’s Supreme Court overturned a law passed in July 2023 that prevents judges from striking down governmental decisions they deem unreasonable (see Sibylline Alert – 24 July 2023). Subsequently, Justice Minister Yariv Levin criticised the court ruling, stating that it will not hinder the government’s ‘plans’ (no further details were given). However, National Unity Chairman Benny Gantz, along with other lawmakers, called for the court’s decision to be respected. It is unlikely that the decision will have an immediate impact on government stability; political infighting over the controversial judicial reforms will likely be postponed until after the ongoing Israel-Hamas war. Similarly, widespread protests following the court’s decision are unlikely in the coming days; unrest is more likely if the government decides to challenge the ruling. (Source: Sibylline)

 

06 Jan 24.  US, Europe embark on new diplomatic push to quell Gaza war.

Summary

  • LATEST DEVELOPMENTS:
  • Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh says the U.S. should focus on ending aggression towards Palestinians. “We hope that Mr. Blinken learned lessons from the past three months and realized the extent of the mistakes the U.S. has made by blindly supporting the Zionist occupation.”
  • Three Palestinians died and seven were injured in Israeli shelling on a house in central Gaza’s Deir Al-Balah, the Palestinian Red Crescent said
  • France and Jordan air-drop aid to field hospital in Khan Younis

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Europe’s senior diplomat Josep Borrell began a new diplomatic push on Friday to stop spillover from the Gaza war into Israeli-occupied West Bank, Lebanon and Red Sea shipping lanes.

Their Middle East visits came three months since Hamas militants from Gaza attacked Israel, triggering an offensive that has devastated the enclave, uprooted 90% of its population, and killed 22,600 people, according to Palestinian officials.

Israel, which says it has killed 8,000 militants since the deaths of 1,200 people in the Oct. 7 Hamas attack, has announced a more targeted approach under global pressure to limit civilian casualties.

But Gazans said Israeli planes and tanks had intensified attacks overnight on densely populated Al-Maghazi, Al-Bureij and Al-Nusseirat in the centre of the coastal strip.

Some 162 people were killed in the past 24 hours, Palestinian officials said earlier.

In addition to these, Palestinian officials later said that in the south, where hundreds of thousands of Gazans have moved in response to Israeli warnings, at least 22 people were killed by Israeli strikes on Khan Younis.

One Palestinian health official said these included at least 10 people killed and several wounded by an Israeli air strike on a house belonging to Al-Bayouk family.

Four others were killed in an air strike on a street in Al-Nusseirat, Palestinian officials said, while another three died and seven were injured in Israeli shelling on a house in central Gaza’s Deir Al-Balah, the Palestinian Red Crescent said.

Separately, medics reported that two more people were killed and others injured in the same central Gaza town after what residents described as fresh Israeli air strikes after dark.

“The Israeli government claims democracy and humanity, but is inhumane,” Abdel Razek Abu Sinjar said as he cried over the shrouded bodies of his wife and children killed in a strike on his house in Rafah on the border with Egypt.

In Jabalia in northern Gaza, people picked their way through ruined streets filled with sewage and garbage, video showed. Hunger and deadly diseases are spreading.

WEST BANK DEATHS MOUNT TOO

The military said it had struck more than 100 targets in Gaza in the past 24 hours, killing gunmen who tried to attack a tank in Al-Bureij and others in Khan Younis, where Hamas’ military wing said it had killed some troops.

The war in Hamas-run Gaza has stoked violence in the West Bank, which is governed by its rival Fatah and is another territory where Palestinian hopes for statehood have been dashed since the last U.S.-mediated talks on a solution to the decades-long conflict in 2014.

The Palestinian health ministry said a 17-year-old was killed and four other Palestinians wounded by Israeli army gunfire in the West Bank town of Beit Rima. Israel’s military said troops shot at Palestinians who threw petrol bombs.

Some 300 Palestinians have died there since the war erupted, the United Nations says.

Blinken is due to visit the West Bank during a week-long tour starting on Friday in Turkey, which has offered to mediate. He will also visit Israel, Jordan, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

“It is in no one’s interest, not Israel’s, not the region’s, not the world’s, for this conflict to spread beyond Gaza,” State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said.

Borrell, the EU foreign policy chief, was due in Lebanon.

IRANIAN BACKING

Hamas, which is sworn to Israel’s destruction, is backed by Iran. Other Iranian-backed militants have hit U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria and struck Israel from Lebanon in what they call revenge for Israel’s avowed attempt to eliminate the Palestinian Islamist movement.

The U.S. offered up to $10m for information on Hamas sponsors or anything leading to the disruption of the group’s financial mechanisms.

Hamas chief Ismail Haniyeh said the U.S. should focus on ending aggression towards Palestinians and occupation of their land. “We hope that Mr. Blinken learned lessons from the past three months and realized the extent of the mistakes the U.S. has made by blindly supporting the Zionist occupation and believing its lies, which resulted in unprecedented massacres and war crimes against our people in Gaza,” he said in a speech.

The leader of Lebanon’s powerful Iran-backed Hezbollah movement, Hassan Nasrallah, said on Friday the militia had conducted around 670 military operations on the border with Israel since Oct. 8, destroying many Israeli military vehicles.

The Iran-aligned Houthis who control much of Yemen have fired on commercial vessels in the Red Sea since Nov. 19, forcing them to take longer routes in a blow to global trade.

Israel has listed 175 soldiers as killed in action since its offensive began.

Defence Minister Yoav Gallant has said the next phase would include raids in the north to demolish tunnels and a focus in the south on rescuing some 132 Israeli hostages remaining.

A 25th hostage had been declared dead, a government spokesperson said on Friday.

The World Health Organization said hospitals and other medical infrastructure in Gaza have been attacked nearly 600 times since the conflict erupted. Some 613 people have died within facilities and more than 770 wounded, it said.

France and Jordan air-dropped seven tonnes of aid for a field hospital in Khan Younis. (Source: Reuters)

 

05 Jan 24. Hamas ‘using massive stockpile of Chinese weaponry’ in Gaza.

Chinese weaponry including assault rifles and grenade launchers is being used by Hamas to wage war in Gaza, Israeli investigations have revealed.

Stockpiles of hi-tech supplies uncovered by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) contained telescopic sights for rifles and cartridges for M16s as well as an array of communications equipment such as listening devices and tactical military radios.

Israeli investigators are now working to determine how the equipment made it into Hamas’s hands amid concerns Beijing may have been directly involved.

“This has come as a big surprise as before the war, relations were very good, but we have found massive amounts of Chinese weaponry and the question is, did it come directly from China to Hamas or not?” an Israeli intelligence source told The Telegraph.

“This is top-grade weaponry and communications technology, stuff that Hamas didn’t have before, with very sophisticated explosives which have never been found before and especially on such a large scale.”

QBZ assault rifles and QLZ87 automatic grenade launchers were among the haul uncovered by the IDF. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

04 Jan 24.  U.S., Partners Committed to Defensive Operations in Red Sea. The U.S. remains committed to providing a persistent defensive presence in the Red Sea alongside allies and partners, the commander of Naval Forces Central Command said today.   Navy Vice Adm. Brad Cooper said about 1,500 merchant ships have safely transited the Red Sea since mid-December when the U.S. launched Operation Prosperity Guardian. The operation is a multinational, maritime security initiative responding to the recent escalation in Houthi attacks originating from Yemen.

“We are certainly mindful of the continued threat and expect the Houthi attacks may continue,” he said. “I think really importantly, though, our actions in this defensive operation are not just through words, but through deeds.”

Since mid-November, Houthi rebels have launched 25 attacks against merchant vessels operating in the Red Sea. Those include the detonation of an unmanned surface vessel in international shipping lanes earlier today.

While no ships were hit in the most recent attack, Cooper said that the persistent threat from the Iran-backed Houthi rebels in an international shipping lane is a vital concern.

“Our assessment is that 55 nations have direct connections to the ships who’ve been attacked, whether through the flagging state, where the goods were produced or destined, or the nationalities of the innocent mariners aboard each vessel,” Cooper said.

“The impacts of these attacks stretch across the globe,” he said. “This is an international problem that requires an international solution.”

On Wednesday, the governments of the U.S., Australia, Bahrain, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Italy, Japan, Netherlands, New Zealand and the United Kingdom issued a joint statement condemning the attacks and warning the rebel group against further escalation.

“Ongoing Houthi attacks in the Red Sea are illegal, unacceptable, and profoundly destabilizing,” the statement read in part. “There is no lawful justification for intentionally targeting civilian shipping and naval vessels.”

The group of nations warned that the Houthis “will bear the responsibility of the consequences should they continue to threaten lives, the global economy and free flow of commerce in the region’s critical waterways.”

“We remain committed to the international rules-based order and are determined to hold malign actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks,” the statement concluded.

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III announced the launch of Operation Prosperity Guardian on Dec. 18, while on a multiday trip through the Middle East.

The operation brings together forces from several nations to address the challenges in the region and ensure freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The forces will operate under the umbrella of the Combined Maritime Forces and the leadership of Task Force 153, a U.S. Navy-led initiative focused on maritime security in the Red Sea.

Cooper said that since the start of the Operation Prosperity Guardian, the U.S.-led coalition has shot down 19 drones and missiles and sunk three small boats launched by the Houthis against vessels operating in the Red Sea.

Of the drones and missiles shot down, 11 were uncrewed, aerial vehicles; two were cruise missiles; and six were antiship cruise missiles.

“Our actions in this defensive operation are not just through words, but through deeds,” Cooper said, adding that the operation has led to a significant increase in coordination between the international coalition and the shipping industry.

“I think the relationships that have always been strong are even stronger,” Cooper said. “Our industry partners have said back to us that Operation Prosperity Guardian is contributing to their sense of security and freedom of navigation in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden.” (Source: U.S. DoD)

 

02 Jan 24. (Extract)A senior Hamas political leader and at least two of the Palestinian militant group’s military commanders have been killed in an explosion in Beirut, an attack that Hamas and Lebanon blamed on an Israeli drone strike.  Hamas said Saleh al-Arouri, deputy political leader, was among seven members of the group killed in the blast at one of its offices. It added that military commanders Samir Fendi and Azzam al-Aqra’ also died. Lebanese state media alleged that an Israeli drone struck the Hamas office in the Dahiyeh neighbourhood of southern Beirut — a stronghold of Hizbollah, the powerful Lebanese movement — as Palestinian factions held a meeting in the building. Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati condemned the strike and called it “a new Israeli crime”. Hamas said it confirmed the “assassination” of Arouri and other group officials, adding that Israel “bears responsibility for its repercussions”. If an Israeli strike is confirmed, it would mark the first targeted attack against a Hamas leader outside of Palestinian territories by the Jewish state since the militant group’s deadly October 7 assault on southern Israel.  Israel did not immediately comment on the alleged drone strike. It usually neither confirms nor denies accusations that it has carried out an assassination.  The strike and deaths of Arouri and the other Hamas officials risk provoking a further escalation between Iran-backed Hizbollah and Israel, which have traded almost daily exchanges of fire since October 7.  Hizbollah said the deaths were “a serious assault on Lebanon”, adding that the killings “will not go without a response or punishment”. It had its “finger on the trigger”, the group said. A veteran member of Hamas, Arouri helped establish the group’s military wing in the occupied West Bank. He had close ties to Hizbollah. (Source: FT.com)

 

02 Jan 24. Navy expert calls on Defence Secretary to deploy HMS Queen Elizabeth to Red Sea. A leading Navy expert has told Forces News the UK’s Defence Secretary should deploy HMS Queen Elizabeth to the Red Sea. As a result of the continued war between Israel and Palestine, trade routes in the Red Sea continue to be threatened. Now, Tom Sharpe, a former Royal Navy commander, told Forces News that Defence Secretary Grant Shapps should “get the carrier out the door”.

“Make that part of the conversation. Don’t see it as escalation,” he said. “I sense from the Foreign Office, perhaps, they’re not quite sure how to do this without showing signs of escalation.

“That, to me, is a failure to understand how carrier operations work.

“You’ve got to get them out the door.”

He went on: “They’d take a couple of weeks to get there, do that now, get her through the Red Sea, get her in position and then thereafter, by the time she gets there, many parts of this jigsaw will have resolved themselves and she’ll be in a position to assist.”

“We’ve got these bn dollar assets, they’re great, we’ve got a very high-readiness carrier in HMS Queen Elizabeth – if not now, then when?”

Mr Sharpe did, however, say any deployment on which HMS Queen Elizabeth is sent should be carefully considered, of high importance and effective.

“If you sail a ship of Queen Elizabeth’s size out of turn, which this very much would be, you do need to treat that very, very seriously,” he said.

“You need to make sure that whatever she’s sent to do is worthwhile and meaningful. It’s the difference between bad operations and good operations.

“Bad operations would be to sail her to the central Mediterranean and wait. And she steams around drilling holes in the ocean for weeks on end, working up jets and wondering what to do there whilst getting political accusations of assisting the US in Israel. That would be bad.

“Good operations would be to punch through Suez, get through the Red Sea into the Gulf of Aden, assist the Eisenhower Group who’s already there and could provide all the protection that she needs and be ready to strike.”

Her added: “You can’t just dispatch them across the world and hope for the best because we’re so short of people we can’t afford to lose the ones we’ve got.”

The UK recently condemned “destabilising” attacks from Houthi rebels, with HMS Diamond already deployed in the region.

Asked whether more warships could join HMS Diamond in the region, the Prime Minister’s official spokesman said “no decisions have been made”. (Source: forces.net)

 

02 Jan 24. Turkey has accused Israel of spying on its territory and plotting attacks on foreigners living there as relations between the two countries worsen over the conflict in Gaza. Security officers detained 33 people for “international espionage activities” on behalf of Israeli spy agency Mossad, Turkish interior minister Ali Yerlikaya said on Tuesday. He did not identify who were the presumed targets of the detainees. Turkey does not consider Hamas to be a terrorist group, and its senior members are free to live in the country. Turkish officials have acknowledged that Ismail Haniyeh, chair of Hamas’s political bureau, may have been in Turkey on October 7 when the Palestinian group launched its deadly attack on Israel. “The Israeli intelligence services intended to commit the actions of detection, pursuit and assault, like kidnapping, on a tactical basis against foreign nationals residing in our country,” said Yerlikaya. His post included a video of heavily armed security forces breaking down doors, entering apartments and handcuffing men. Israel would “pay a very, very heavy price” if it attempted to assassinate members of Hamas in Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s president, warned last month. The warning came after a recording of Ronen Bar, head of Israel’s internal security service Shin Bet, was leaked to the media, in which he said the Israeli government would “take out Hamas” in Turkey, Qatar and other countries where members were found. Erdoğan has departed from the stance of Turkey’s western allies and levelled harsh criticism against the Israeli government since it began bombing Gaza in response to Hamas’s attack on October 7. He has likened Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler and said he should be tried as a war criminal. He has also defended Hamas as a “liberation organisation”. Netanyahu angrily rejected the comparison, saying Erdoğan was “the last person who can preach morality to us”. He accused the Turkish leader of “committing genocide against the Kurds” and holding the “world record for imprisoning journalists”, along with his support for Hamas.  Tensions over the Israeli campaign in Gaza have upset a fledging rapprochement between the two countries. After more than a decade of tensions, Israel and Turkey re-established diplomatic ties and appointed ambassadors in 2022, but both have recalled their diplomats since the conflict in Gaza began. In a separate operation last week, Turkish police detained 32 people with suspected Islamic State links who are accused of planning attacks on synagogues and churches in Turkey. (Source: FT.com)

 

01 Jan 24. UK is ready to attack Houthi rebels, says Grant Shapps, Britain is considering air strikes on Houthi rebels as the Defence Secretary warns that the UK will not hesitate to take “direct action” over their attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea. The UK is drawing up plans with the US for potential military strikes against the Iranian-backed Houthis in Yemen to counter their attacks on shipping which are causing chaos on world trade routes. Writing in The Telegraph, Grant Shapps warns the Houthis that Britain is willing to act to deter threats. The US and UK are preparing an unprecedented joint statement that could be issued as early as Monday giving the Houthis a final warning to stop their attacks. The Telegraph understands that any attack would likely be led by the US. It would be a major escalation of the response to the Houthis and discussions are under way for other countries to join the US and the UK. One option under consideration in the Ministry of Defence is to move HMS Lancaster, a Type 23 frigate operating in the Gulf region, to the Red Sea to support HMS Diamond. In his article for The Telegraph, Mr Shapps highlights the fact that HMS Diamond, a Type 45 destroyer, shot down a Houthi attack drone in self-defence in the Red Sea earlier this month.

He says: “As HMS Diamond illustrated earlier in the month, we are willing to take direct action, and we won’t hesitate to take further action to deter threats to freedom of navigation in the Red Sea.

“The Houthis should be under no misunderstanding: We are committed to holding malign actors accountable for unlawful seizures and attacks.”

It comes after the US Navy destroyed three Houthi boats on Sunday, killing at least 10 rebels as they attempted to board a container ship in the Red Sea. US Navy helicopters from nearby warships opened fire on the small boats after they attacked the Maersk Hangzhou container ship.

Sources said the US-UK joint statement would be a “verbal final warning” to the Houthis. Talks were under way on Sunday evening for at least two other nations also to sign it.

It is thought unlikely that the statement will set out any specific military action. However, speaking ahead of it being issued, Mr Shapps said: “If the Houthis continue to threaten lives and trade, we will be forced to take the necessary and appropriate action.

“Those terrorists who are disrupting trade in the Red Sea are drinking in the last chance saloon. Diplomatic efforts have been made to find a resolution but with limited success.”

Two senior US defence officials told The Telegraph that the Biden administration would not “telegraph” its military plans in advance, but they did not rule out the prospect of air strikes in the near future.

“US forces have the inherent right to self defence, and if we do decide to take any action against the Houthis, then we will do so at a time and place of our choosing,” said a US defence source.

After Sunday’s clash, Lord Cameron, the  Foreign Secretary, told his Iranian counterpart that the country shared responsibility for preventing attacks in the Red Sea given its support for the Houthis. A Houthi spokesman issued a statement urging other countries not to join the US in their response to the attacks and warning of “negative repercussions” for those who did. While it is thought any offensive strikes to counter the launches from Houthi strongholds would be led by the US, the UK has Typhoons stationed at RAF Akrotiri in Cyprus, currently carrying out missions over Iraq and Syria. HMS Lancaster, which is being considered for a move to the Red Sea, is equipped with the Sea Ceptor missile system, which can fire at three times the speed of sound and is designed to protect an area of 500 square miles – around the size of Greater Manchester. Unlike the Sea Viper system installed on HMS Diamond, the Sea Ceptor can also fire at small, fast-moving craft such as speedboats, which have been used by Houthi rebels in the region to attack container ships in the Red Sea. Defence sources said the redeployment of HMS Lancaster was not “imminent” but that the ship remained on “standby” in the region to assist with future operations if necessary. Mr Biden has been considering military strikes against Houthi sites in Yemen since mid-December and has been urged to take more aggressive action. The Houthi rebels, who are backed by the Iranian regime, began strikes on commercial ships in the Red Sea in December in solidarity with Hamas and its war with Israel. Attacks have escalated from three in November to 20 in the 30 days before Christmas, of which eight were on cargo ships that were either UK registered, had Britons in their crews or carried goods for the UK. (Source: Daily Telegraph)

 

01 Jan 24. After months of extra duty at sea providing protection for Israel, the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier strike group will be heading home, the Navy announced Monday. The Ford and its accompanying warships will be replaced by the amphibious assault ship the USS Bataan and its accompanying warships, the USS Mesa Verde and the USS Carter Hall. The three vessels had been in the Red Sea and have been transiting toward the Eastern Mediterranean over the last few days. The Ford will sail for home “in the coming days,” the U.S. 6th Fleet, the European-based U.S. naval command that’s responsible for ships sailing in the Mediterranean, said in a statement. The Ford was sent to the Eastern Mediterranean to be within striking distance of Israel since the day after Hamas’ Oct. 7 attacks. The carrier stayed in the Eastern Mediterranean while its accompanying warships had sailed into the Red Sea, where they repeatedly intercepted incoming ballistic missiles and attack drones fired from Houthi-controlled Yemen. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin visited the Ford last month. (Source: Defense News Early Bird/AP)

 

02 Jan 24. Israel’s aircraft, tanks step up strikes as it plans to reduce troops.

  • Summary
  • Israeli aircraft, tanks step up strikes in southern Gaza, say residents
  • Residents say Al-Bureji refugee camp in central Gaza shelled

Israeli aircraft and tanks stepped up strikes in southern Gaza overnight, residents said, after it announced plans to pull back some troops, a move the U.S. said signalled a gradual shift to lower intensity operations in the north of the enclave.

Israel says the war in Gaza, which has reduced much of the territory to rubble, killing thousands and plunging its 2.3m people into a humanitarian disaster, has many months to go.

But it signalled a new phase in its offensive, with an Israeli official saying on Monday the military would draw down forces inside Gaza this month and shift to a months-long phase of more localised “mopping up” operations.

The Israeli official said the troop reduction would allow some reservists to return to civilian life, shoring up Israel’s war-battered economy, and free up units in case of a wider conflict in the north with Lebanon’s Iran-backed Hezbollah.

A U.S. official said the decision appeared to indicate the start of a shift to lower-intensity operations in the north of the Palestinian enclave. Washington has been urging Israel to reduce the intensity of its military operation, amidst international calls for a ceasefire as the death toll mounts.

But residents said Israeli planes and tanks stepped up bombardment of the eastern and northern areas of Khan Younis in southern Gaza.

The hints at a lowered tempo in northern Gaza came as the U.S. Navy announced that the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier was returning to its home port in Virginia after being to deployed to the Eastern Mediterranean following the outbreak of hostilities.

Coincidentally, Iran’s Alborz warship entered the Red Sea, the semi-official Tasnim news agency reported on Monday, at a time of soaring tensions on the key shipping route with attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthis, who support Hamas.

Artillery fire between Hezbollah and Israel has rattled the border since the start of the Gaza conflict, with Israel’s military saying it carried out an air strike on Monday.

The Israeli official said the situation on the Lebanese border “will not be allowed to continue. This coming six-month period is a critical moment.”

Any new escalation carries a greater risk of a wider regional war. US forces have already being attacked by Iran-backed militant groups in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon.

The Gaza war was triggered by a surprise Hamas attack on Israeli towns on Oct. 7 that Israel says killed 1,200 people. Palestinian health authorities in Hamas-run Gaza say Israel’s offensive there has killed more than 21,978 people.

“My wish for 2024 is not to die … Our childhood is gone. There is no bathroom, no food and no water. Only tents,” 11-year-old Layan Harara said in Gaza’s Rafah. In the city’s zoo, people camped out between cages holding starving animals.

TANKS WITHDRAW

Residents of Sheikh Radwan district in Gaza City, in the northern part of the enclave that Israel’s offensive focused on first, said tanks had withdrawn after what they described as the most intense 10 days of warfare since the conflict began.

“The tanks were very near. We could see them outside the houses. We couldn’t get out to fill water,” said Nasser, a father of seven living in Sheikh Radwan.

Tanks also pulled out of Gaza City’s al-Mina district and parts of Tel al-Hawa district, while retaining some positions in the suburb controlling the enclave’s main coastal road, residents said.

On Monday, Hamas’ armed wing claimed to have killed 15 Israeli soldiers after triggering an explosive minefield east of the Tuffah neighbourhood in Gaza city.

Tanks remained in other parts of northern Gaza and fighting in central parts of the enclave continued unabated, said residents, citing shelling by tanks of parts of the Al-Bureji refugee camp in central Gaza.

Hamas also showed its continued ability to target Israel after more than 12 weeks of the war, launching a barrage of rocket fire at Tel Aviv.

“HAMAS MUST BE DESTROYED”

Hamas seized 240 hostages on Oct. 7 and Israel believes 129 are still held in Gaza after some were released during a brief truce and others killed during air strikes and rescue or escape attempts.

Qatar and Egypt are seeking to negotiate a new truce and hostages deal.

“Without Hamas’ terrorist infrastructure being destroyed and its governance capabilities toppled, the war will not end,” Avi Dichter, a member of Israel’s security cabinet, said on Kan Radio.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on Saturday that the country must retake control of Gaza’s border with Egypt, an area now crammed with civilians who have fled the carnage across the rest of the enclave.

Retaking the border could also constitute a de facto reversal of Israel’s 2005 withdrawal from Gaza, raising new questions over the future of the enclave and prospects for a Palestinian state.

Washington said Israel should allow a Palestinian government to control Gaza when the conflict is over. (Source: Reuters)

 

30 Dec 23. Fighting between Israeli forces and Hamas rages after nearly 200 killed in Gaza. 

  • Summary
  • South Africa files genocide case against Israel in World Court

Fierce Israeli tank fire and aerial bombing struck Khan Younis in the Gaza Strip on Friday night, residents said, after nearly 200 people were reported killed in 24 hours in Israel’s campaign against Hamas militants.

Planes also carried out a series of air strikes on the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza, according to medics and Palestinian journalists.

Israeli forces have been pounding Khan Younis in preparation for an anticipated further advance into the main southern city, swathes of which they captured in early December.

Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said troops were reaching Hamas command centres and arms depots. The Israeli military said it had destroyed a tunnel complex in the basement of one of the houses of the Hamas leader for Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, in Gaza City.

Twelve weeks after Hamas militants stormed Israeli towns, killing 1,200 people and seizing 240 hostages, Israeli forces have laid much of the Gaza Strip to waste as it pursues its war aimed at eradicating the Islamist group.

Nearly all of Gaza’s 2.3 m people have fled their homes at least once and many are on the move again, often reduced to taking shelter in makeshift tents or huddled under tarpaulins and plastic sheets on open ground.

The narrow coastal strip is just 40 km (25 miles) long, making it one of the most densely populated areas in the world.

Gaza health authorities said 187 Palestinians were confirmed killed in Israeli strikes in the 24-hour period, raising the overall toll to 21,507 – about 1% of Gaza’s population. Thousands more bodies are feared to be buried in the ruins of neighbourhoods.

PALESTINIAN JOURNALIST KILLED

A Palestinian journalist working for Al-Quds TV was killed along with some of his family members in an air strike on their house in the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza Strip, health officials and fellow journalists said.

Gaza’s government media office says 106 Palestinian journalists have been killed in the Israeli offensive.

The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) said last week that the first 10 weeks of the Israel-Gaza war were the deadliest recorded for journalists, with the most journalists killed in a single year in one location.

Most of the journalists and media workers killed in the war were Palestinian. The report by the U.S.-based CPJ said it was “particularly concerned about an apparent pattern of targeting of journalists and their families by the Israeli military.”

Earlier this month, a Reuters investigation found an Israeli tank crew killed a Reuters journalist, Issam Abdallah, and wounded six reporters in Lebanon on Oct. 13 by firing two shells in quick succession while the journalists were filming cross-border shelling.

Israel has previously said it has never and will never deliberately target journalists and that it is doing what it can to avoid civilian casualties, but the high death toll has caused concern even amongst its staunchest allies.

The U.S. has called for Israel to scale down the war in coming weeks and move to targeted operations against Hamas leaders, although so far it shows no sign of doing so.

South Africa asked the International Court of Justice (ICJ) on Friday for an urgent order declaring that Israel was in breach of its obligations under the 1948 Genocide Convention in its crackdown against Hamas in Gaza.

It called on the court to issue short-term measures ordering Israel to stop its military campaign “to protect against further, severe and irreparable harm to the rights of the Palestinian people.”

No date has been set for a hearing.

In a response, Israel’s foreign ministry blamed Hamas for the suffering of Palestinians in Gaza by using them as human shields and stealing humanitarian aid from them. Hamas denies such accusations.

ISRAEL HELPS DELIVER VACCINES TO GAZA

Israel on Friday said it facilitated the entry of enough vaccines to inoculate almost 1.4 m people against illnesses including polio, tuberculosis, hepatitis, diphtheria, tetanus, whooping cough and meningitis.

The vaccine transfer was coordinated with UNICEF, said a statement from COGAT – the defence ministry agency that coordinates with the Palestinians – in order to prevent the spread of disease in the enclave.

Gaza is almost entirely reliant on food, fuel and medical supplies from the outside, and Israel has limited access to the southern end of the strip. International agencies say supplies getting in through Israeli inspections are a small fraction of Gaza’s needs.

Last week Israel bowed to international pressure to open a second crossing it said would double the number of supply trucks daily to 200, but just 76 were able to enter on Thursday, according to the United Nations, compared to 500 in peacetime.

An Israeli government spokesman said on Friday it does not limit humanitarian aid and the problem was with its distribution inside Gaza. (Source: Reuters)

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