Briefing Note for British MPs
DEFENDING BRITAIN: LEADING IN A MORE DANGEROUS WORLD
Our pledge: committing to 2.5% of GDP in 2030
• The last few years have seen two unprecedented international events: a global pandemic and a war in Ukraine. Despite the impact of rising inflation and our generous cost of living package on the public finances, we’ve still been able to increase defence spending to a record £50 billion a year – including an uplift of £24 billion, which is the largest single investment in defence since the end of the Cold War.
• However, the security environment is deteriorating, with threats to the UK and its interests increasing. An axis of authoritarian states with different values to ours like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are increasingly assertive, acting together and making common cause in an attempt to reshape the world order. We need to deter threats now because, while the cost of doing so is significant, the cost of inaction would be higher still – both in terms of our security and our prosperity.
• That is why today we are announcing our plan to spend 2.5% of GDP on defence by 2030. This increase in defence spending starts today and will mean an extra £75 billion over the next six years. This will confirm our place as the biggest defence power in Europe, second only to the USA in NATO. This is only possible because we are sticking to our plan for the economy, which is working.
• Our increased investment will be focused on: firing up the UK industrial base, including £10 billion on the new munitions strategy; ensuring that our Armed Forces are benefiting from the latest technology, and guaranteeing our long-term support to Ukraine. We will also make sure that this new investment is spent more effectively with a radical set of reforms.
• The UK is leading the way in Europe and setting a new standard among the major NATO economies. At this turning point in European security, if 2.5% becomes a new benchmark for NATO partners to reach, allied defence spending would increase by over £140 billion. That would provide safety and security for the British people that far outstrips anything we could achieve alone.
• Our first duty is to the national security and defence of the UK. We’re taking the difficult decisions now to secure the future security and prosperity of children and grandchildren. By sticking to this plan for defence, we will deliver a brighter, safer future.
The security environment continues to deteriorate:
Since publishing the Integrated Review Refresh (IRR) the security context has deteriorated. In 2023 the IRR described the growing threat posed by authoritarian states. But what is new is that these countries – or their proxies – are causing more instability, more quickly, in more places at once. An axis of authoritarian states with different values to ours like Russia, Iran, North Korea, and China are increasingly assertive, acting together and making common cause in an attempt to reshape the world order.
They pose real risks to the United Kingdom’s security and prosperity. Hostile state activity poses a direct threat to both our security and prosperity at home – with the soaring bills caused by Putin’s war, disruption to global trade caused by the Iranian backed Houthis in the Red Sea, and the cyber-attacks that often originate in Russia, China, North Korea or Iran. These impact UK citizens and businesses every year.
We have already invested significantly in our National Security. Defence spending has been on an upwards trajectory every year since 2019 and defence spending has increased by £41 billion since the start of this Parliament. We have invested in the right things: our nuclear deterrent; NATO (16,000 troops deployed to Europe this year); our conventional forces (including new Typhoons, Chinooks, F35s, ships and submarines), recapitalising the Army; cyber and space; and global partnerships such as AUKUS and GCAP.
Today we are announcing the biggest strengthening of our national defence for a generation:
• We will increase defence spending to 2.5% of GDP by 2030: Given the deteriorating security environment and with inflation falling to 3.2%, we can now set 2030 as the date to meet our 2.5% commitment. The increase in defence spending starts today and will see defence spending rise steadily in each and every year, giving defence an additional £75 billion over the next six years. It will be fully funded with no increase in borrowing or debt. We have a clear plan for what we’ll spend, when we’ll spend it, and how we’ll pay for it. This plan that makes the UK by far the largest defence power in Europe and second largest in NATO.
We have three immediate priorities for this new investment:
• Investing in firing up the UK industrial base, including a further £10 billion over the next decade in the British defence industry. The defence industry supports over 400,000 British jobs, but we will go further to strengthen defence as a key part of the UK’s economic prosperity. One of the central lessons of the war in Ukraine is that we need deeper stockpiles of munitions and for industry to be able to replenish them more quickly. We will grow our domestic UK munitions production pipeline by investing £10 billion over the next ten years in long term contracts, doubling our current spending. These measures will ensure we have more secure and resilient supply chains, whilst supporting more jobs in all parts of the Union. We will also take action to boost private sector investment in defence by reforming ESG rules.
• Innovation and new technology investment that will give us advantage on the modern battlefield. With an acceleration of new technologies, warfare is fundamentally changing. Through our new Defence Innovation Agency, we will develop a plan to scale R&D funding to a minimum of 5% of the defence budget, together with an additional 2% to exploit that R&D, accelerating investments in new weapon systems. We invest in areas that have proven relevant and deliver advantage on the modern battlefield, like drones, air defence, electronic warfare and cyber, and long-range missiles.
• Support for the Ukraine in the long term, as well as immediate support of an additional £500 million today and the largest-ever single package of equipment. Ukraine’s security is our security. The costs of failing to support Ukraine now will be far greater than the costs of repelling Putin, because only if he fails will he and other adversaries be deterred. The immediate increase of £500 million will take us to a total of £3 billion of support this year and will be used to deliver urgently needed ammunition, air defences and drones. The package of equipment includes 400 vehicles, more than 1,600 munitions including additional Storm Shadows, more than 4 million rounds of small arms and 60 boats.
• We will also develop a National Defence and Resilience Plan, bringing together a comprehensive cross-government plan for our security, preparedness and resilience as a nation. We will build on existing resilience frameworks to develop a National Defence and Resilience Plan, bringing together a comprehensive plan. This will be based on the latest assessment of threats and risks, whilst bringing together our defence and civilian planning to reflect the increasingly interconnected and interdependent world we live in. Several other NATO countries have these plans, so we will work with NATO and other allies as we develop our resilience plan. Our ambition is to set out an outline of our plan early next year.
We will also make sure that this investment is spent effectively by tackling waste and inefficiency:
• Introducing the most radical reforms yet to defence investment, making defence procurement faster, smarter and more joined up. We will establish a new Integrated Procurement Model to streamline and improve our procurement process and avoid siloed decision making across the Services, reflecting the fact that modern warfare is multi-domain.
• Better strategic direction and accountability. We will overhaul Levene’s delegated model, reforming and strengthening Head Office to operate as a fully functioning strategic headquarters. It will have a greater ability to drive prioritisation across the full range of defence spending, hold front-line commands to account for delivery and ensure value-for money. This will be supported by the National Security Council
to better align the full levers of government across areas of defence, national security, development and diplomacy.
• Developing a Defence Productivity and Reform Plan, making sure we achieve value for money from this increased investment in defence. Building on the success of the NHS Long-term Plan, we will similarly improve the productivity of defence, producing a plan underpinned by clear targets and metrics to drive delivery, along with a target to once again become the largest defence exporter in Europe by 2030. This will range from unleashing the benefits of AI and improving the readiness of key military assets, to reforming the MOD workforce so our people are focussed on the most productive and valuable work.Key political points:
• Sir Keir Starmer tried to twice to make Jeremy Corbyn Prime Minister – a man who didn’t support NATO and sided with our enemies. Corbyn wanted to abandon the Armed Forces, leave NATO and sympathised with our enemies – despite this Keir Starmer thought he should be PM.
• The Shadow Foreign Secretary, David Lammy, voted against renewing our vital nuclear deterrent, Trident, and was paid to appear on Russian television.
Q: How are you paying for this?
Part of the additional funding is increased investment in defence R&D, funded from our existing commitment for R&D to rise from a record £20 billion this year, to £22 billion in the next Parliament. The remaining cost will be funded by reducing headcount in the Civil Service to pre-pandemic levels.
Q: Why can’t you go quicker on reaching 2.5%?
An increase to 2.5% of GDP is a substantial increase. In order to ensure defence can spend this money, we first need to build up the industrial base to build capacity in the system. An immediate increase would not allow this, and funds are unlikely to be spent effectively unless spending is ramped up in a deliverable way.