On the domestic front, waves of trade liberalisation and economic globalisation hollowed out middle- and working-class America, giving rise to opioid crises precipitating waves of “deaths of despair”, political polarisation, the culture wars, and mounting wealth inequality.
All of this combines to form a particularly bleak picture of the Leader of the Free World in a particularly unstable time in history.
This hasn’t gone unnoticed, at home or abroad.
Indeed, recently, firebrand Republican senator Marco Rubio was incredibly robust in his assessment of the United States following the Chinese spy balloon fiasco, stating, “They did this on purpose. They understood that it was going to be spotted, they knew the US government would have to reveal it, that people were going to see it over the sky. And the message they were trying to send is what they believe internally, and that is that the United States is a once-great superpower that’s hollowed out, it’s in decline.”
Meanwhile, abroad, the recent expansion of the BRICS organisation, coupled with the limited efficacy of US sanctions against Russia following the invasion of Ukraine, mounting tensions over Taiwan, and Hamas’ barbaric attack on Israel all serve to highlight that while the “cat is away, the mice will play”.
However, the foreign front isn’t the primary focus of this analysis, rather, it is the home front which is of paramount importance.
Highlighting this, recent polling conducted by the Associated Press-NORC Center detailed the declining domestic confidence in the United States and dream of the Founding Fathers.
Country is heading in the wrong direction
Overwhelmingly, the belief among average Americans is that the United States is heading in the wrong direction.
The polling conducted across 1,163 Americans, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 per cent between 5 and 9 October, revealing that 78 per cent of those polled believed that the nation was firmly heading in the “wrong direction”.
This contrasts with 21 per cent of those polled believing that the country was heading in the “right direction”.
Critically, these figures mark a major downturn in public sentiment from September which revealed that 75 per cent of Americans felt that the country was heading in the “wrong direction”, compared to 25 per cent believing that country was heading in the “right direction”.
This marked the most significant decline in public confidence since May, around the time of the most recent debt ceiling debacle.
All of this comes following repeated statements by the Biden administration highlighting the efficacy of the Inflation Reduction Act and in spite of widespread public backlash over the administration’s handling of the Maui fires and ongoing funding for the Ukraine war effort.
America’s political leaders didn’t escape the backlash of the voters, with President Joe Biden getting a 38 per cent approval rating, with a 61 per cent net disapproval, hardly the ratings of the president with the most votes in history.
Meanwhile, former president and presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump scored a 37 per cent approval rating, with a 58 per cent net disapproval rating.
This shattered confidence in the United States ultimately spells significant trouble for the Leader of the Free World at a time when the world needs a strong, legitimate, and robust hegemon.
This spells trouble
Enter former US defense secretary Robert Gates, in a piece titled, The Dysfunctional Superpower: Can a divided America deter China and Russia?, in which he sets out the costly implications of America’s increasing dysfunction on the global stage.
Gates, who served as defense secretary for both George W Bush and Barrack Obama, begins his scathing analysis stating, “The problem, however, is that at the very moment that events demand a strong and coherent response from the United States, the country cannot provide one. Its fractured political leadership – Republican and Democratic, in the White House and in Congress – has failed to convince enough Americans that developments in China and Russia matter.
Importantly, for both Australian consideration, is the reality that our political leaders will need to play a greater role in bringing the public on the journey.
“Political leaders have failed to explain how the threats posed by these countries are interconnected. They have failed to articulate a long-term strategy to ensure that the United States, and democratic values more broadly, will prevail,” Gates explains.
This reality is only further reinforced by the growing global discontent with the post-Second World War order of multilateral organisations, including the United Nations, World Bank, and World Health Organisation, the International Monetary Fund, and others, with much of the discontent being characterised by being elitist, often neo-colonialist organisations designed to keep the global south impoverished and subservient.
Gates explains this stating, “The problem is not merely China’s and Russia’s military strength and aggressiveness. It is also that both leaders have already made major miscalculations at home and abroad and seem likely to make even bigger ones in the future. Their decisions could well lead to catastrophic consequences for themselves – and for the United States.
“Washington must therefore change Xi’s and Putin’s calculus and reduce the chances of disaster, an effort that will require strategic vision and bold action. The United States prevailed in the Cold War thanks to a consistent strategy pursued by both political parties through nine successive presidencies. It needs a similar bipartisan approach today. Therein lies the rub,” Gates explains further.
The reality is that America is a shadow of its former self, with domestic political “dysfunction” and “policy failures” essentially undermining the enduring and long-term stability of the United States and its capacity to engage as the “indispensable nation”.
Gates adds, “America’s political dysfunction and policy failures are undermining its success. The US economy is threatened by runaway federal government spending. Politicians from both parties have failed to address the spiralling cost of entitlements such as Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Perennial opposition to raising the debt ceiling has undermined confidence in the economy, causing investors to worry about what would happen if Washington actually defaulted.”
Importantly, we have to accept that America isn’t alone in facing these challenges, as Australia’s repeated domestic, foreign, industrial, and defence policies of the last three decades (at least) come home to roost, have left the nation dangerously exposed to the whims, ambitions, and designs of others in our immediate region.
Final thoughts
Only by recognising the relative decline of the United States (not a popular opinion to state out loud) and accepting that the United States has limitations can Australia truly begin to take stock of the challenges of operating in this increasingly multipolar world.
However, it is critical for us to understand that Australia’s security, prosperity, and stability will not be determined by events in Europe, nor will they be determined by circumstances in the Middle East, while they may influence circumstance, our national future will not be determined by these areas.
It is important to highlight that in the coming era of multipolarity, Australia will face an increasingly competitive Indo-Pacific. Indeed, separate to the People’s Republic of China, our immediate region is home to some of the world’s largest populations with its fastest-growing economies with their own unique designs and economic, political, and strategic ambitions for the region.
Rather, we have to accept that while the world is increasingly becoming “multipolar”, the Indo-Pacific, in particular, is rapidly becoming the most hotly contested region in the world, underpinned by the emerging economic, political, and strategic might of powers like China, India, Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam, and the established and re-emerging capability of both South Korea and Japan, in particular, serving to create a hotbed of competition on our doorstep.
Recognising this array of challenges and opportunities, both the Australian public and its policymakers need to look beyond the myopic lens that has traditionally dominated our diplomatic, strategic, and economic policy making since Federation.
Ultimately, we need to see Australia begin to play the long game to fully capitalise on the opportunities transforming the Indo-Pacific. The most important questions now become, when will we see a more detailed analysis and response to the challenges and opportunities facing Australia and when will we see a narrative that better helps industry and the Australian public understand the challenges faced and opportunities we have presented before us?
As events continue to unfold throughout the region and China continues to throw its economic, political, and strategic weight around, can Australia afford to remain a secondary power, or does it need to embrace a larger, more independent role in an era of increasing great power competition?