From the outset of the invasion of Ukraine, in February 2022, the UK has stood four square behind the efforts by the Ukrainian people to repel the invader. The practical support afforded to the armed forces of Ukraine through the UK’s training mission, which began in 2015, paid dividends as they were able to stop Putin’s forces reaching the capital.
The recent swirling political manoeuvers over a ‘peace deal’ and a ‘coalition of the willing’ has diverted attention from what will become the enduring challenge – keeping Ukraine safe in the long term. For Ukraine, this war began in 2014 – now over 1,100 days. Whatever the outcome, Ukraine will have a belligerent neighbour, which means that it must maintain a well-equipped and credible military force to prevent further aggression.
Thanks largely to the effectiveness of the equipment supplied by the UK, notably NLAWS anti-tank missiles and AS 90 self-propelled artillery, the armed forces of the Ukraine have managed to hold their lines and extract a high price from the invader for the territory they have taken. The big story of this war has been the rapid rise of the Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) – drones & the equally rapid evolution of counter drone technology. But this has only been possible thanks to the fact that the invader’s plans were frustrated by the effective defence mounted by the Ukrainians.
Lessons learnt
The outbreak of war in Europe has been a dramatic wake up call for the UK and its European allies. The response has been slow in coming, but the message that the days of the ‘peace dividend’ are over has finally sunk in. Not only must Europe re-arm, but it must ensure that Ukraine can prevail in its fight for its freedom.
The Ukrainians are now convinced that this is an ‘innovation war’ that will be won by innovating and scaling new technologies, not just eking-out western hardware donations. They don’t want hardware gifting announcements but capability partnerships that jointly develop, scale and then iterate equipment for the toughest challenges they face.
The hostile approach by the Trump regime towards funding for the support of Ukraine, demonstrates the risk posed to Ukraine by its reliance on foreign suppliers. The need for Ukraine to modernise its defence industrial sector could involve UK companies in licensing opportunities. Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine in February 2022, Ukrainian industry has been reaching out to their UK counterparts seeking opportunities for closer co-operation.
The favourable response to the performance of British supplied equipment has led to requests for partnering and licensing opportunities. Some UK defence contractors have opened facilities in Ukraine, to enable in country support. The UK government needs to carefully examine its export controls, ensuring that no bureaucratic obstacles prevent this co-operation.
Task Force Hirst
Task Force Hirst is the UK cross-government team incorporating MOD, DBT, UK Export Finance and ADS intended to stimulate UK industrial production and collaboration in support of Ukraine, including collaboration with Ukrainian companies. In the first instance the requirement was for support and maintenance for the equipment that the UK has supplied to the Ukrainian armed forces. In February 2025 the fifth such trade mission took place in Kyiv.
Comments from UK industry, and from Ukrainian participants, suggest that UK officials are passing all enquiries from the Ukraine side to Prime contractors. It might be more appropriate to ensure that the UK’s very vibrant ecosystem of SMEs is more closely involved in this process.
The benefit of this would be to create a stream of revenue as well as access to some of the innovative technology that is emerging from Ukrainian SMEs. It would also allow the UK to partner with Ukrainian companies with a view to the wider export market.
Opportunities
Ukraine possesses a sizeable defence manufacturing industry. Most of the equipment that Ukraine operates is legacy equipment from the Warsaw pact. Since the invasion of 2022 the main effort has been two fold; to enable the armed forces to sustain their fight by maintaining and repairing existing equipment, and adapting and developing new technology to respond to battle field needs.
As western equipment has been gifted to the Ukrainian armed forces, the need to support and maintain this new inventory requires co-operation with the Original Equipment Manufacturers, whether they be British, German or American. In the longer term this support can be realised by closer co-operation, which will enable components to be manufactured in Ukraine.
This requires proper commercial contracts, not just continual gifting of equipment. The financial support provided by UK Export Finance and other sources such as the Treasury reserve, should enable the Ukrainian side to place orders for the kit they need, which will give reassurance to UK suppliers that they will be paid. In the longer term the Ukrainian government and its international partners have been working on a funding settlement to support the wider economy and enable reconstruction to occur. But this can only happen if the Ukrainian armed forces are adequately supplied with the equipment they need.
E U moves
As the final touches are (hopefully) being put to secure the UK’s participation in the EU’s SAFE programme to finance rearmament (refer to Commentary 08 for more details), it is worth noting that the EU opened a Defence Innovation Office in Kyiv in September 2024. According to the Defence Innovation Office website “For businesses, the EU Defence Innovation Office in Kyiv is an opportunity to become part of something meaningful and ground breaking. The innovation is not just in defence capabilities, it is towards creating a safer, brighter future for all of Europe. Together we can create the capabilities that foster prosperity and support the shared values of freedom, unity and progress.”
The UK government, and industry, need to ensure sufficient visibility among the defence manufacturers of Ukraine, so that the UK’s defence manufacturing sector won’t miss out on the opportunities which will be arising in the future. Up until now, Ukraine has benefitted from equipment that has been gifted to them. As European countries seek to replenish their stocks of ammunition and re-arm for the new Cold War, our Ukrainian friends may find the good will from the west cooling. Ukraine will need to place firm orders for equipment with their western counterparts, including UK industry.
Hopefully Taskforce Hirst can increase the drum beat of its missions to Ukraine, and encourage their Ukrainian partners to come and see for themselves the strength in depth of the UK’s defence industry. Ukrainian companies recognise the opportunities for a wider export market, and partnering with UK manufacturers would be to the advantage of both sides.
NPW 06 05 25
Nick Watts
07714 246478